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Decision Making & Excitement In First Half Of The NFL Season

At the start of the season, Sports Info Solutions did a detailed study about the different elements that go into fourth down decision making and a number of other win probability related topics. And now, with more than half the season in the books, we can start to take a look back and see if the trends we saw emerging have continued into 2019 and explore some other win probability based odds and ends from the first half of the season.

In order to evaluate how well teams are performing on fourth down, we use the SIS Win Probability model to calculate the Expected Win Probability for each of the three options a team has on fourth down: go for it, attempt a field goal, or punt. The calculation for each is based on the win probability of the expected outcomes in each situation.

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