By Steve Schwarz
Here are some of the top Prop Bets for Thursday’s Tennessee at Jacksonville game using the SIS DataHub and SISBets.com to help figure out what’s a smart play.
1) Gardner Minshew under 1.5 INTs (Over +240/Under – 345)
Minshew has thrown the ball 58 times over the almost two full games he’s played in and he’s only been picked off one time for a 1.7% interception rate. Meanwhile he’s completing 78% of his passes. His opponent picked off just 11 passes all last season but they have four in their first two games, three against the inaccurate Baker Mayfield. Minshew has been very conservative so far (just three of his 58 attempts are for more than 20 yards) and accurate. A fair under based on assessment from SISBets.com should be -423, but is currently -345.
2) Gardner Minshew under 21.5 completions (Over +100/Under – 134)
Minshew has completed more than this total in both games, but the KC pass defense has been suspect for a few years and the 2018 Houston defense surprisingly gave up the seventh-most completions last season despite its heralded pass rushers. Tennessee averaged allowing just 21 completions in 2018 and have continued to be tough in 2019, allowing a total of 42 completions in the first two games this season. They haven’t yielded more than 21 completions to Jacksonville since 2016. A fair under, per SISBets, should be -162, but is currently -134.
3) Marcus Mariota under 1.5 TDs (Over +150/Under -200)
Mariota has four touchdown passes through two games this season, but his four- year career average per game is 1.3 touchdown passes per game and rushing touchdowns don’t count toward this total. He’s averaging only 26 passing attempts per game and over the past two seasons has averaged just 22.5 attempts against usually-stingy Jacksonville. Make sure CB Jalen Ramsey is active before jumping on this play. A fair under should be -340, but is currently -200.
4) Marqise Lee score a touchdown (Yes +900)
Lee sat out the second game with a knee issue, but after a full Tuesday practice should be ready to go. He’s a long shot to score, but not as bad as the odds show. In his last full season (2017) he scored in three of 14 contests with Blake Bortles at the controls. Minshew has shown he’s better than that. With a SISbets.com-predicted 18-percent chance, the fair number should be +452, but he’s currently at +900.
Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.
Prop Bet Odds
Gardner Minshew O/U 1.5 TDs, +150 over / -200 under
Gardner Minshew O/U 1.5 INTs, +240 over / -345 under
Gardner Minshew completions O/U 21.5 completions, +100 over / -134 under
Marcus Mariota O/U 1.5 TDs, +150 over / -200 under
Marcus Mariota O/U 0.5 INTs, -110 over / -121 under
Marcus Mariota O/U 17.5 completions, -121 over / -110 under
Score a TD Tennessee
Derrick Henry – 130
Delanie Walker +260
Corey Davis +285
A.J. Brown +350
Dion Lewis +325
Adam Humphries +400
Tajae Sharpe +475
Marcus Mariota +600
Score a TD Jacksonville
Leonard Fournette -106
D.J. Chark +225
Chris Conley +275
Dede Westbrook +275
Gardner Minshew +650
Geoff Swaim +800
Marqise Lee +900
Ryquell Armstead +900
Keelan Cole +900
Odds from ParxCasino.com