The Thursday night showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and the Denver Broncos features a non-conference matchup between two 3-2 teams in competitive divisions vying for playoff positioning. And if the stakes weren’t already seemingly high for a Week 6 game, it’s an island game, so everyone’s takeaways from whatever the result is will surely be well-measured and normal. Primetime means extra scrutiny for the quarterback position, so let’s take a look at what’s been happening under center so far for both these teams this season, and then check in on some other interesting quarterback situations across the league.
A weird hangover in Seattle
Sam Darnold has had a really bizarre season so far. He currently ranks 1st in expected on-target +/- rate (xOnTgt+/-) at +6%, but he is 4th percentile in turnover-worth play rate. So, there’s this really weird dichotomy of being super-accurate while also putting the ball in harm’s way a ton, which is made especially weird by having the 5th-lowest average distance of target (ADoT) in the league. To further illustrate: the Seahawks currently rank 2nd in success rate on deep drops (59%) and last on short drops (30%).
But what’s perhaps most interesting about his ADoT is that he’s also throwing at or past the sticks on 3rd downs at a really low rate. Even if you remove screens, Darnold is pushing the ball at or past the marker at a rate of 48%, which, if it holds, would be 14 percentage points below the NFL average since 2016. Only eight quarterbacks during that span (minimum 100 total 3rd down dropbacks) have surrendered at a lower rate: Jared Goff in 2021 was the worst at a cowardly 38% and just ahead of him was – wait for it! – Sam Darnold at 44% in 2021.
His sack-to-pressure rate is also fifth-worst at 27% (which helps explain having the sixth-worst sack rate), so he’s just really accurate but eating sacks and putting the ball in harm’s way and waving the white flag on third down. This is probably not all on him, but something has to give for him to be the refurbished t-shirt cannon they need him to be.
Sean Payton and his bill of goods
The clock has struck midnight for our old friend, Bo Nix, and he has finally revealed his true self for all to behold. He has achieved enlightenment and internalized the First Precept of Derek Carrism – ‘True blamelessness comes from checking it down, regardless of whether or not it is correct to do so,’ for those unfamiliar – and is currently last in ADoT at 6.0 yards. To make matters worse, his (xOnTgt+/- is in the 7th percentile, and he’s middle-of-the-pack in terms of avoiding turnover-worthy plays, which typically correlate to an ADoT higher than his.
He’s still voiding the pocket at a rate similar to last year; his 134 out-of-pocket attempts led the league in 2025, and he’s currently on pace for 129. But he has scrambled just four times through five games, and he’s been his most valuable when he’s no longer a defenseless player by rule, so it’s only a matter of time before he and his NSync haircut are sundered into the abysm.
Jalen Hurts and the dysfunctional Eagles
Nick Sirianni isn’t the only one on the hot seat in the City of Brotherly Love. It seems that, without AJ Brown, Saquon Barkley, and Lane Johnson, Jalen Hurts is as naked as the day he was born. But, the cupboard is bare and opposing defenses have elected to send 5 or more rushers at him 38% of the time in obvious passing downs (scrimmage plays with a 70%+ pre-snap probability of a pass) this year.
For context, that’s 17 percentage points above the NFL average in those situations since 2020, and, if that rate holds, it would be the second-highest over the same time frame behind only Joe Flacco’s 2020 stint for the Jets. Quarterbacks have generally punished it to the tune of 0.27 EPA/play, whereas Hurts is currently averaging -0.10 EPA/play in this split. All told, he’s faced pressure on 46% of his dropbacks, the second-highest mark in the league through five weeks.
Malik Willis and the case for relegation
The Dolphins have, perhaps predictably, not led for so much as a single second this season. While their EPA/play is not as bad as it was during the final Gase years, their average win probability on scrimmage plays has been 25% (and that’s with a model that doesn’t take into account team quality going in). If not the worst offense, it would make them the most hopeless in the SIS era (2016-present) from a win probability standpoint.
None of this is for lack of effort. For his part, Malik Willis currently ranks 1st in ADoT (10.5) and dead-last in turnover-worthy play rate (7%) and completion percentage (56%). If I weren’t a philistine, I would say all this makes the Miami offense some kind of art exhibit in motion which touches on themes of the indomitable human spirit and hope in the face of defeat.
Jason Licht and buyer’s remorse
Not to kick Baker Mayfield while he’s down, but the Bucs are currently 1-4 and still without their starting quarterback who, prior to getting injured, was not playing very well! Baker got a $165M extension prior to the season, and is 21st percentile in turnover-worthy play rate, last in positive play rate (36%), last in sack rate (11%), last in passing Total Points per play (-0.04), and 4th-worst in bust rate (20%). Small sample, blah, blah, blah, but, with the exception of sack rate, he fared poorly in all those metrics last year, as well.
Now, he has to come back from an injury to his throwing thumb, and is liable to be rushed back due to the direness of the team’s position in the standings. Will this finally be the year that the former first overall pick and nine-year pro proves all his doubters wrong?
A renaissance in Las Vegas
I did not have 38-year-old Kirk Cousins being useful on his third team in four years on my 2026 bingo card. Ol’ Kirk is still a cadaverous ambulator, but he can at least still throw the football a bit, which cannot be said for a certain shaman in Pittsburgh. Cousins is 9th in Independent Quarterback Rating, 6th in Total Points per play, 96th percentile in xOnTgt+/-, and 6th in sack rate. He’s been somewhat middling when it comes to avoiding turnover-worthy plays, but he’s surprisingly been a perfectly competent bridge in his 15th year.
They have played some pretty bad teams, and have playoff-caliber opponents scheduled in four of five their next five games. So, if the bottom is to fall out, look for it to happen sometime before the Week 13 bye.
