Month: August 2019

  • More valuable on D: Chapman or Baez?

    By Mark Simon

    In the course of writing our articles in this space and at The Athletic, we’ve heard from more Javier BĆ”ez fans than those supporting any other player. People love both how he plays defense and how well he plays defense.

    So with the Chicago Cubs playing the Oakland Athletics, we thought we’d pose a question: which player is more valuable to his team on defense right now, BĆ”ez or Athletics third baseman Matt Chapman?

    Defensive Runs Saved

    By Defensive Runs Saved in 2019, Chapman has a 14-to-9 advantage. Chapman, who has the most Runs Saved for a third baseman, provides a value that BĆ”ez can’t. Chapman is the best in baseball at out conversion on balls hit down the third base line. Those balls are largely would-be doubles.

    When BĆ”ez takes away a hit, it’s usually going to be a single, because he’s got an outfielder behind him who can get to the ball quickly.

    Let’s add in individual value for shift defense, which isn’t factored in our basic Defensive Runs Saved, but can be computed using our internal data.

    Of the Cubs’ Runs Saved in shifts, seven have come on plays BĆ”ez made. That bumps him to 16. But making the same calculation gives Chapman five runs.

    The advantage narrows to 19-16, still in favor of Chapman.

    Good Fielding Plays

    Our Video Scouts chart every play of ever game, categorizing some plays as ā€œGood Fielding Playsā€ and ā€œDefensive Misplays & Errors.ā€

    Good Fielding Plays are Web Gems – the diving, sliding or jumping catch that you’ll see in highlights, but also things like keeping the ball on the infield to prevent a baserunner from gaining an extra base, or preventing a single from being a double. There are approximately 30 categories from which to choose.

    Defensive Misplays & Errors are errors, plus plays in which a fielder’s actions had a negative consequence. These include your basic bobbles and drops, but also cover other ground. Official scorers may not give an error if a fielder fails to convert on an attempted double play, since one can’t be assumed but Video Scouts can award a Misplay for an errant throw or a drop after the catch by the relay man. There are approximately 60 categories of these kinds of plays.

    Chapman is having a phenomenal year when it comes to making the great plays and avoiding mistakes. He has 35 Good Fielding Plays and 14 Misplays & Errors.

    Chapman’s 35 are the most in MLB by a non-first baseman (first basemen tend to record more than other positions because of scooped throws). That’s a big improvement over last season, when he finished with 41 Good Plays and 35 Misplays & Errors.

    BĆ”ez has 21 Good Fielding Plays and 28 Misplays & Errors. He’s two shy of the most Good Plays at shortstop. He garners attention because his Good Plays are so good, like the one-of-a-kind tags he’s made that get shown repeatedly on TV and go viral on social media.

    In Sum

    It’s difficult to compare across positions. But we can tell you that Chapman is the top defensive third baseman in baseball by the numbers. BĆ”ez has won our Fielding Bible Award for multi-positional excellence three years running. He’ll be in for a tough fight at shortstop this season Nick Ahmed of the Diamondbacks has 20 Runs Saved plus he’s accounted for 16 of his team’s Runs Saved in shifts).

    Perhaps this article should have been one comparing Ahmed and Chapman’s value too. We’ll save that for another time.

    In the meantime, ponder where a very, very good shortstop rates compared to the top third baseman, and vote in our poll. We’re curious how people weigh the numbers in their consideration.

  • New baseball podcast: Kevin Pillar talks about sliding, diving, and jumping catches

    LISTEN HERE

    This week’s episode of the SIS Baseball Podcast highlights defensive excellence in the Bay Area.

    Senior research analyst Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) points out how well Chad Pinder has played recently, with help from Oakland Athletics coach Ryan Christenson (1:04).

    Then, Mark talks to San Francisco Giants outfielder Kevin Pillar (@KPILLAR4). They discuss the challenges of making sliding, diving, and jumping catches including dealing with injuries (3:00), how Pillar learned to play that way (5:13), what being the leader in those kinds of catches says about a player (10:00), learning a ballpark (11:02), how much he uses scouting information (13:24), and what advice he would give to kids who want to play defense like him (15:19).

    Mark is then joined by research associate Andrew Kyne (@Andrew_Kyne) and intern Jon Becker (@jonbecker_). They review Pillar’s comments (18:29), discuss a pitcher who changed approach upon joining a new team (20:56), answer a listener question about the Mount Rushmore of stats (22:45), preview Andrew’s presentation at Saberseminar (24:07) and challenge listeners to figure out the Ridiculous Stats of the Day (25:21).

  • New football podcast: Reviewing the Football Outsiders Almanac

    LISTEN HERE

    Former NFL scout Matt Manocherian (@mattmano) of Sports Info Solutions and football analytics pioneer Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz) of Football Outsiders dive into the Football Outsiders Almanac 2019.

    Matt and Aaron examine what goes into Expected Win Total Predictions (2:10) and look at the expected totals for the Browns (4:02), Ravens (7:59), Steelers (13:11), Saints (17:02), Chargers (22:48), Lions (29:31), Buccaneers (34:54), Broncos (37:23), Falcons (46:01) and Bills (47:59).

    They also touch on the NCAA football projections (51:19) and talk about some top prospects (53:48).

  • Stat of the Week: Who were July’s top defenders?

    By Mark Simon

    The San Diego Padres have known thatĀ Hunter RenfroeĀ could hit for power since he made his big league debut in 2016. But after being known primarily as a home run hitter in the early part of his career, Renfroe is now known for something else: his defense.

    Renfroe is the Sports Info Solutions Defensive Player of the Month for July. He edged out Oakland Athletics utility manĀ Chad PinderĀ in a very close vote among SIS staff.

    Renfroe is the second consecutive Padres player to win Defensive Player of the Month this season. Padres catcherĀ Austin HedgesĀ took the honor for June. Brewers outfielderĀ Lorenzo CainĀ (March/April) and Dodgers outfielderĀ Cody BellingerĀ (May) are the other winners this season.

    Renfroe led all players with 13 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) for the month. He saved eight runs in right field, four in left field and one in center field. No other player finished the month in double figures in Runs Saved.

    Among Renfroe’s highlights wereĀ a diving grab against Alex VerdugoĀ andĀ a leaping catch against Joe PanikĀ of the Giants.

    As documented recentlyĀ on the Sports Info Solutions blog,Ā Renfroe has made significant defensive improvements this season. He’s saved 17 runs overall and recently overtook Bellinger for the lead for most DRS as an outfielder this season. Renfroe has been excellent at both catching balls and deterring baserunner advancement. His five Outfield Arm Runs Saved are one shy of Bellinger for the MLB lead.

    ā€œI want to win a Gold Glove more than I want to win a Silver Slugger,ā€ Renfroe toldĀ The AthleticĀ about a month ago. He’ll make an interesting candidate for ourĀ Fielding Bible Awards.Ā His nine DRS in right field rank fourth behind Bellinger. His seven DRS in left field are one off the MLB lead. He could be a candidate for theĀ Fielding Bible AwardĀ for best multi-position player.

    So could Pinder, especially given how he played in July. He saved at least one run as a left fielder (3), right fielder (1), second baseman (1), and third baseman (1). Sports Info Solutions Video Scouts credited him with eight Good Fielding Plays, one shy of the most by a non-first baseman (first basemen tend to have the most due to scooped throws). He did this while committing only one Misplay or Error.

    Pinder’s presence makes the Athletics a highly formidable defensive team along with first basemanĀ Matt OlsonĀ and third basemanĀ Matt Chapman.

    Among Pinder’s highlights this month were aĀ pretty good impersonation of ChapmanĀ at third base to take a hit away from Jorge Polanco, a diving catch in right fieldĀ to rob Eric Thames of extra bases,Ā as well asĀ this play in left fieldĀ to take a hit from J.P. Crawford.

    Left field is where Pinder fares best. He’s saved six runs in just over 200 innings there this season. But his ability to make plays at other spots adds considerably to his value.

    For more on defensive excellence, check out the upcoming episode of theĀ Sports Info Solutions Baseball PodcastĀ (available Monday). San Francisco Giants center fielder Kevin Pillar talks about the challenges of making the diving, sliding, and jumping catch.

  • Analyzing the Impact Bats Added at the Trade Deadline

    By Jon Becker

    The MLB trade deadline has come and gone, and as is usually the case, it was pitching that dominated the headlines. Trevor Bauer went to the Cincinnati Reds, Shane Greene to the Atlanta Braves, and Zack Greinke to the Houston Astros. While there weren’t names quite as big or seasons quite as good acquired on the offensive side of things, there were still a small handful of meaningful position players acquired. Let’s take a look at some of them.

    OF/DH Franmil Reyes, traded from San Diego Padres to Cleveland Indians

    Reyes has been one of the most under-the-radar hitters in baseball this year, with a 34% hard-hit rate that puts him in the top 50 among the nearly 200 batters with 300-plus at-bats. His 27 home runs this year gives him 43 for his career in under 600 at-bats, though interestingly enough he’s hit only 18 doubles and driven in 77 runs. The righty swinger actually does most of his damage against same-sided pitching, with a 36% hard-hit rate against such pitchers (25% against southpaws) and 24 of his 27 round-trippers.

    A big factor in the Padres’ willingness to trade Reyes was likely his poor defense, which our Sam Weber wrote about yesterday. He’ll probably spend most of his time in Cleveland as the designated hitter.

    RF Nicholas Castellanos, traded from Detroit Tigers to Chicago Cubs

    Despite this being the most homer-happy season in MLB history, Castellanos hasn’t quite gotten the memo, hitting just 11 home runs after clubbing 23 last year. He has hit 37 doubles, to lead MLB, only 9 off of his career-high with one-third of the season still to be played. The Cubs’ biggest offensive woes have come against lefties, and Castellanos will definitely help there. He’s hitting .347 this year when holding the platoon advantage, with four of his home runs and a 43% hard-hit rate. That hard-hit rate puts him just outside the top 10 of the 200+ hitters with at least 50 at-bats against lefties.

    One thing that ought to worry the Cubs, though, is Castellanos’ defense; he’s improved, but has still been well below average, with a -6 DRS after -19 last year. The acquisition will also give Jason Heyward more time in center and less in right; Heyward’s fifth amongst right fielders with 9 DRS, but has cost the Cubs six runs when playing up the middle.

    RF Yasiel Puig, traded from Reds to Indians

    It’s been a weird season for Puig, who slashed just .218/.268/.391 through the end of May but was excellent in the next two months, batting .290/.340/.568. His hard-contact rate has improved a lot as well; it’s been 33% over the last two months after having a hard-hit ball in less than a quarter of his at-bats prior. Similarly to new teammate Reyes, he’s a bit of a reverse-splits hitter: his batting average is 14 points higher against lefties but his hard-hit rate is almost two percentage points higher against righties, against whom he’s hit 17 of his 22 home runs.

    Puig, unlike the other two names above, is an above-average fielder, with 3 DRS in right field this year and four outfield assists, with runners taking the extra base on less than 50% of opportunities. Puig has 16 Good Fielding Plays, one shy of the MLB lead at the position. He does sometimes try to do too much — he has 13 Defensive Misplays & Errors — but that doesn’t offset his positives.

    INF/OF Eric Sogard, traded from Toronto Blue Jays to Tampa Bay Rays

    The most out-of-nowhere impact trade candidate on the market, Sogard parlayed a minor-league deal with the Blue Jays into an excellent .300/.363/.477 slashline, hitting 10 home runs in 330 plate appearances after slugging just 11 in over 1,700 career plate appearances prior. He hasn’t hit the ball particularly hard, with a hard-hit rate of just over 30%, but that still represents a career high. He’s also been excellent at using the whole field, pulling just 37% of batted balls and hitting 63% up the middle or to the left side.

    The bespectacled Sogard has started games at second base, third base, shortstop, left field and right field this year.Ā  He’s cost his teams four runs at second base, and has been +1 at the other positions.