By Steve Schwartz
Here are the top prop bets for Thursday night’s game between the Chiefs and Broncos based on analysis using SISBets.com, our sports props analysis tool (register to use and receive 10 free queries).
All odds come from ParxCasino.com
Overall record: 8-8. Last week: 1-3
1) LeSean McCoy, 2.5 receptions, under -195.
McCoy has been a great receiving back over his career with 488 receptions, but in 2019 he’s in a shared running back situation and hasn’t caught more than two balls in a game since Week 3. The Chiefs simply have too many options now that Tyreek Hill and Damien Williams are back in the lineup. Our data says the under should be -600, but it’s currently at -195.
2) Courtland Sutton, 4.5 receptions, over -104.
A second-round pick of the Broncos in 2018, Sutton has already become the team’s No. 1 wide receiver with 46 targets, 30 catches, 477 yards and three touchdown catches. That’s an average of almost eight targets and five receptions per game. The Chiefs pass defense is ranked in the bottom half. At -104 that’s a steal based on our data which puts a fair market value at -278.
3) Travis Kelce, 6.5 receptions, under -150.
Kelce does lead Kansas City in targets (49) and receptions (32), but the Chiefs passing game has been out-of-sync the past two games and the All-Pro tight end has caught just four balls in each of those games. The Broncos have allowed 28 receptions to tight ends in six games. SIS analysis predicts 5.2 receptions and a fair number should be -274, so it’s a bargain at -150.
4) Royce Freeman, 2.5 receptions, over -195.
Phillip Lindsay is getting all the media attention, but Freeman is getting 44-percent of the rushing attempts and just under 50-percent of the running back receiving targets. With 21 receptions over six games he’s averaging 3.5 catches per game, including at least four balls in four of the last five. He’s a big favorite to go over, but not as big as he should be, at -195. Fair market value should be -320.
Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.
Quarterback Touchdown Passes
Patrick Mahomes, 1.5, over -190/under +150
Joe Flacco, 1.5, over -124/under -155
Patrick Mahomes, 0.5, over -121/under -104
Joe Flacco, 0.5, over -143/under +115
Patrick Mahomes, 23.5 completions, over -124/under 100
Joe Flacco, 21.5 completions, over -118/under -106
Kansas City –
Kansas City –
LeSean McCoy 2.5, over +153/under -195
Tyreek Hill, 5.5, over +120/under -150
Travis Kelce, 6.5, over +120/under -150
Phillip Lindsay, 2.5, over -195/under +153
Royce Freeman, 2.5, over -195/under +153
Noah Fant, 2.5, over +120/under -150
Emmanuel Sanders, 3.5, over -148/under +118