By Steven Schwartz
The Indianapolis Colts offense is a complete mess for prop bettors heading into tonight’s game with the Houston Texans. The loss of Marlon Mack (fractured hand) leaves the backfield in a running-back-by-committee situation and at the wideout position, No.1 option T.Y. Hilton’s availability is still a question mark heading toward game time. Due to his injury status all of the prop bets odds for Colts receivers aren’t yet available. Neither are TD passes and interceptions for quarterback Jacoby Brissett.
The following props are evaluated using SISBets.com (registered users get 10 free queries).
1) Jacoby Brissett, over 19.5 completions, -118.
Given the upheaval at running back, the “run-centric” Colts may have to throw the ball more often. Jonathan Williams and Jordan Wilkins are nice backups, but they aren’t Marlon Mack. In addition, the Colts will have to outscore the Texans in Houston this Thursday. In their first matchup this season Brissett went 26-of-39 for 326 yards and four scores. SIS data analysis predicts 23 completions which means a fair over should be -321, but the line is just -118. This is our best option of the night.
2) DeAndre Hopkins, over 6.5 receptions, -106.
It’s been since September since Hopkins caught less than seven passes in a game. With six consecutive games of seven or more catches and averaging 11.3 targets, Hopkins should be a bigger favorite than he is to go over the total. Our data says 11.5 targets and 8.1 receptions, making him a -232 favorite to go over.
3) Duke Johnson, score a TD, +286.
Johnson shares the backfield work with Carlos Hyde, doing most of his damage catching passes. He’s been a solid contributor all season and has scored a touchdown in three of the past five games (one rushing, two receiving). SIS data sets a fair number at +203, but the current number is +286.
Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.
Quarterback Touchdown Passes
Deshaun Watson, 1.5, over -136/under +107
Deshaun Watson, 0.5, over -129/under +105
Jacoby Brissett, 19.5 completions, over -118/under -106
Deshaun Watson, 22.5 completions, over -106/under -118
Jack Doyle +140
Zach Pascal +150
Eric Ebron +165
T.T. Hilton +180
Jonathan Williams +200
Jordan Wilkins +200
Chester Rogers +275
Marcus Johnson +300
Nyheim Hines +275
Jacoby Brissett +600
DeAndre Hopkins +105
Carlos Hyde +105
Kenny Stills +180
Deshaun Watson +225
Darren Fells +275
Duke Johnson +285
Keke Coutee +350
Jordan Akins +525
DeAndre Carter +600
Darren Fells, 2.5, over +116/under -148
DeAndre Hopkins, 6.5, over -106/under -120
Duke Johnson, 2.5, over -109/under -117