By Steve Schwartz
Instead of one Thursday night game, the NFL has provided a juicy three-game Saturday schedule for your enjoyment. Unfortunately, there are a lot of question marks for the Houston-Tampa Bay contest which limits our options in the opener, but we have found a number of favorable odds for you to take advantage in the final two games.
The following props are evaluated using SISBets.com (registered users get 10 free queries).
Our overall record is 25-21, including 4-0, 3-1, 3-1, 4-0 in four of the last eight weeks (we went 0-3 last week). Let’s see if we can fix the recent slide! Odds from ParxCasino.com.
1) Cooper Kupp, under 4.5 receptions, +105
Kupp has been targeted less often as the season has progressed, seeing an average of 10.9 targets through Week 8, but just 5.5 targets since. And in the first meeting between the two teams on October 13, he managed just four catches for 17 yards as the 49ers defense dominated the Rams offense. SIS analysis predicts just 3.5 receptions for the Rams slot receiver making a fair price -264, but we are getting +105.
2) George Kittle, over 5.5 receptions, -137
Kittle is coming off his best game of the season catching 13-of-17 targets. He’s caught at least six balls in five of the last six games and nine of 12 this season. In the first meeting with the Rams, he caught all eight targets that came in his direction. SIS data is expecting another big effort from Kittle, with 10.2 targets, 7.1 receptions and 91.9 yards. A fair price should be -247, but it’s currently just -137.
3) Tom Brady, over 20.5 completions, -127
The Patriots running games has been mostly nonexistent this season, which is why Tom Brady will likely finish the season with more than 600 passing attempts. As long as Julian Edelman is active, Brady will continue to fire early and often. He’s completed 20 or more passes in 10-of-15 games this season and our analysis predicts 37.4 passing attempts and 23.3 completions, covering the number easily. The fair price is -246, so it’s a bargain at -127.
4) Cameron Brate, score a touchdown, +425
The Buccaneers are running out of pass catchers. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Scotty Miller will all be watching from the sidelines. That leaves wideout Breshad Perriman and a pair of tight ends, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate, as the primary options. Brate has a history of getting into the end zone, having scored 20 times from 2016-2018. Brate scored on 16% of his receptions over that span and will be a solid option for Jameis Winston in Week 16. SIS data predicts 5.6 targets and 3.7 catches with a 39% chance of scoring. That means a fair price is +203, but we are getting +425.
5) Cole Beasley, score a touchdown, +450.
Beasley has become a touchdown scorer in Buffalo, having reached the end zone in six of the last nine Bills games. He has a great chance to add to the total in Week 16 as he should see plenty of work with deep threat John Brown likely to be covered by the Patriots top CB Stephon Gilmore. When the two teams played in September, Beasley saw 13 targets and caught seven balls. While he probably won’t see that many targets this time around, SIS data still shows a 37% chance to score. Take the +450.
Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.
Quarterback Touchdown Passes
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Deshaun Watson, 1.5, odds not listed
Jameis Winston, 1.5, odds not listed
Josh Allen, 0.5, over -200/under +160
Tom Brady, 1.5, over +117/under -148
Jared Goff, 1.5, over +110/under -137
Jimmy Garoppolo, 1.5, over -121/under -103
Quarterback Interceptions
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Deshaun Watson, 0.5, odds not listed
Jameis Winston, 0.5, odds not listed
Josh Allen, 0.5, over -137/under +110
Tom Brady, 0.5, over -109/under -115
Jared Goff, 0.5, over -167/under +135
Jimmy Garoppolo, 0.5, over -124/under +100
Quarterback Completions
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Deshaun Watson, not listed
Jameis Winston, not listed
Josh Allen, 17.5 completions, over -103/under -141
Tom Brady, 20.5 completions, over -127/under -113
Jared Goff, not listed
Jimmy Garoppolo, 21.5 completions, over -103/under -140
Touchdown Scorers
Houston Texans
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DeAndre Hopkins -106
Carlos Hyde +120
Will Fuller +130
Kenny Stills +180
Deshaun Watson +225
Duke Johnson +260
Darren Fells +325
Tampa Bay
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Ronald Jones +150
Breshad Perriman +145
Peyton Barber +200
Justin Watson +210
O.J. Howard +240
Cameron Brate +425
Dare Ogunbowale +375
Jameis Winston +800
Buffalo
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John Brown +350
Devin Singletary +220
Josh Allen +250
Cole Beasley +450
Frank Gore +450
New England Patriots
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Julian Edelman +200
Sony Michel +110
James White +225
Rex Burkhead +325
Mohamed Sanu +350
N’Keal Harry +450
Tom Brady +650
Los Angeles Rams
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Brandin Cooks +325
Todd Gurley -106
Cooper Kupp +225
Robert Woods +275
Malcolm Brown +325
Tyler Higbee +325
Gerald Everett +375
Jared Goff +850
San Francisco
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Raheem Mostert +110
George Kittle +130
Emmanuel Sanders +180
Deebo Samuel +180
Matt Breida +285
Tevin Coleman +300
Kendrick Bourne +325
Jimmy Garoppolo +800
Total Receptions
———————-
Buffalo at New England –
James White, 4.5 receptions, over +100/under -125
Cole Beasley, 4.5 receptions, over +121/under -152
John Brown, 3.5 receptions, over -122/under -103
Los Angeles at San Francisco –
Deebo Samuel, 3.5 receptions, over +105/under -130
Emmanuel Sanders, 3.5 receptions, over -155/under +125
Cooper Kupp, 4.5 receptions, over -130/under +105
Robert Woods, 4.5 receptions, over -148/under +117
George Kittle, 5.5 receptions, over -137/under +110
