by STEVE SCHWARZ
Here are three props that are statistically favorable tonight based on the analysis done by SISBets.com.
In the interests of full disclosure, our picks are 11-16 this season but we believe over the long haul that our numbers provide accurate and worthwhile insights.
*Odds courtesy of DraftKings
1) Ezekiel Elliott, over 18.5 receiving yards, -120.
Elliott has been a large part of the Cowboys passing game of late, with six catches in each of the last two games. He cracked the 20-yard receiving mark in both games and in five of the last six contests. Based on SIS data, we expect Elliott to get 4.5 targets and catch 3.2 of them for 27.4 yards almost 50% more yards than needed to cover the over number.
2) Juwan Johnson, over 10.5 receiving yards, -110.
Starter Adam Trautman remains on the IR, which means Juwan Johnson should continue to get a majority of the tight end snaps. Johnson’s production has been inconsistent, but he’s averaging 12 yards per reception so likely only needs one catch to cover the 10.5-yard number.
New starting quarterback Taysom Hill can hardly be worse than what we saw from Trevor Siemian on Thanksgiving Day. In fact, Hill produced three games last season where he threw for more than 230 yards in four starts. The change under center should help Johnson and we are projecting 2.9 targets, 1.9 receptions and 22.1 yards, more than double what is needed for the over.
3) CeeDee Lamb, under 4.5 receptions, +120.
It’s always a question mark when your receiver is likely to go head-to-head against Marshon Lattimore. Although he hasn’t been as good in 2021 as past seasons, Lattimore is still a tough customer for a receiver to take advantage of, particularly in front of a national television audience. SIS analysis sets Lamb’s totals with 5.7 targets and 3.7 receptions for 47.2 yards.
Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball, footbal, and basketballl data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as FanGraphs and Football Outsiders.
Dallas at New Orleans
Over 283.5 yards -115, under -115
Over 1.5 TD passes -230, under +170
Over 0.5 INTs -105, under -130
Over 24.5 completions -110, under -125
Over 209.5 yards -115, under -115
Ezekiel Elliott, -125
CeeDee Lamb, +120
Michael Gallup, +175
Cedrick Wilson, +225
Tony Pollard, +165
Dalton Schultz, +180
Amari Cooper, +180
Dak Prescott, +450
New Orleans –
Alvin Kamara, +100
Mark Ingram, +110
Taysom Hill, +160
Marquez Callaway, +220
Tre’Quan Smith, +250
Deonte Harris, +250
Nick Vannett, +400
Tony Jones, Jr., +650
Ty Montgomery, +650
Kenny Stills, +850
Dak Prescott, over 8.5 yards -115, under -115
Ezekiel Elliott, over 46.5 yards -115, under -115
Tony Pollard, over 43.5 yards -115, under -115
New Orleans –
Taysom Hill, over 32.5 yards, -115, under -115
Ezekiel Elliott, over 2.5 receptions -170, under +125
CeeDee Lamb, over 4.5 receptions -160, under +120
Dalton Schultz, over 3.5 receptions -170, under +125
Michael Gallup, over 3.5 receptions -140, under +105
Tony Pollard, over 2.5 receptions +105, under -140
Dalton Schultz, over 42.5 yards -115, under -115
Ezekiel Elliott, over 18.5 yards -120, under -110
Michael Gallup, over 46.5 yards -115, under -115
Tony Pollard, over 16.5 yards -115, under -115
Amari Cooper, over 47.5 yards -115, under -115
New Orleans –
Deonte Harris, over 33.5 yards -115, under -115
Juwan Johnson, over 10.5 yards -110, under -120
Marquez Callaway, over 30.5 yards -115, under -115
Tre’Quan Smith, over 39.5 yards -115, under -115