By Steve Schwarz

Good game tonight with the Chiefs and Chargers squaring off, so we’ve got four prop possibilities with the help of our tools at

For the record, we’re 15-18 on these picks this season but are 4-2 on our last 6.

*Odds courtesy of DraftKings

1) Patrick Mahomes, under 25.5 completions, -105.

The dynamic Mahomes we have come to know has disappeared during the Chiefs’ current six-game winning streak. Instead, we have a more conservative version. This version has cracked 300 just once in his last seven games and thrown fewer than 24 completions in five of his last seven starts. Meanwhile, the Chargers’ pass defense allows only 20.4 completions per game. SIS analysis projects Mahomes going 23.9-of-37.1 for 275.4 yards.

2) Tyreek Hill, under 6.5 receptions, +105.

With Mahomes throwing less and teams playing two-deep safeties to prevent the long pass, Hill’s numbers having suffered a bit. He has just six receptions in his last two games and 26 catches over his last five starts. The Chargers’ secondary has allowed the fourth-fewest receptions to opposing wide receivers (148) through 13 games.

Our data predicts Hill to see 8.4 targets and catch 5.5 balls for 67.3 yards.

3) Darrel Williams, over 14.5 rushing yards, -115.

Williams has become an integral part of the Kansas City offense since Week 3 and has rushed for more than 14.5 yards in 10-of-his-last 11 games. The return of Clyde Edwards-Helaire from an MCL sprain has reduced his workload, but Williams has still surpassed the number in two of three contests.

SIS data projects Williams to get 6.2 rushing attempts for 25.7 yards, almost double the necessary amount for the over.

4) Keenan Allen, under 75.5 receiving yards, -115.

Allen missed the Week 14 contest due to a positive Covid-19 test, but he’s since had two negative tests and is expected to be on the field Thursday night.

The Chargers and quarterback Justin Herbert didn’t miss a beat with Allen sidelined and the second-year star quarterback showed he could spread the ball around using wideouts Mike Williams, Jalen Guyton, Josh Palmer, running back Austin Ekeler and his tight ends to perfection. Allen is still the No. 1 guy, but Herbert isn’t afraid to look elsewhere if he’s covered or likely double-covered for much of the night. The Chiefs held Allen to just 50 yards in their first meeting this season.

Our analysis projects Allen with 7.2 targets and 4.9 receptions for just 53 yards, well below the 75.5 receiving yards total.

Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball, football, and basketball data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.


Kansas City at Los Angeles Chargers


Patrick Mahomes

Over 283.5 yards -115, under -115

Over 2.5 TD passes +140, under -190

Over 0.5 INTs +120, under -160

Over 25.5 completions -130, under -105


Justin Herbert

Over 287.5 yards -115, under -115

Over 2.5 TD passes +155, under -210

Over 0.5 INTs +115, under -115

Over 25.5 completions -110, under -120



TD Scorers


Kansas City –

Tyreek Hill, -110

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, +100

Travis Kelce, +110

Darrel Williams, +190

Patrick Mahomes, +350

Mecole Hardman, +360

Brian Pringle, +360

Demarcus Robinson, +550


Los Angeles Chargers –

Austin Ekeler, -150

Keenan Allen, +150

Mike Williams, +175

Jalen Guyton, +300

Jared Cook, +300

Justin Herbert, +400

Joshua Palmer, +350

Justin Jackson, +350

Donald Parham Jr., +450



Rushing Yards


Kansas City –

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, over 56.5 yards -120, under -110

Darrel Williams, over 14.5 yards -115, under -115

Patrick Mahomes, over 18.5 yards -115, under -115




Los Angeles Chargers –

Justin Herbert, over 15.5 yards, -115, under -115





Kansas City –

Tyreek Hill, over 6.5 receptions -140, under +105

Travis Kelce, over 5.5 receptions -155, under +115

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, over 2.5 receptions +125, under -165

Darrel Williams, over 2.5 receptions +115, under -155


Los Angeles Chargers –

Keenan Allen, over x.5 receptions +115, under +115

Mike Williams, over x.5 receptions +115, under +115

Jalen Guyton, over x.5 receptions +115, under +115

Austin Ekeler, over x.5 receptions +115, under +115



Receiving Yards


Kansas City –

Tyreek Hill, over 81.5 receiving yards -115, under -115

Travis Kelce, over 65.5 receiving yards -115, under -115

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, over 13.5 receiving yards -115, under -115

Darrel Williams, over 18.5 receiving yards -125, under -105


Los Angeles Chargers –

Keenan Allen, over 75.5 receiving yards -120, under -115

Mike Williams, over 54.5 receiving yards -115, under -115