Our final set of picks for the season are for tonight’s Browns-Steelers game, with the Steelers still alive in the AFC Wild Card hunt. As always, we use the SIS projections and SISBets to guide us along. There are three good options on the board based on those numbers.
Thank you as always for reading.
1) Ben Roethlisberger, over 22.5 completions, +100.
Though he isn’t in his prime anymore and may retire after the season is over, Roethlisberger has still averaged 24 completions per game. He’s benefited from quality receivers, and two good rookies, one at tight end (Pat Freiermuth) and at running back (Najee Harris).
The SIS analysis projects Ben to complete 25-of-39 passes for 257 yards, well above the 22.5 completions necessary for the over. Fair market value should be -245, but it’s set at +100 and is the best bet on the Monday Night docket.
2) Najee Harris, over 24.5 receiving yards -110.
Harris has not only been the workhorse running back in his first season, but he’s also been an integral part of the passing game. He’s averaged 5.8 targets per game and pulled down almost 4.5 balls a night.
In this Week 17 matchup, we expect him for see 5 or 6 targets (the projection is 5.5) and catch 4 balls for 36 yards.
3) Donovan Peoples-Jones, over 32.5 receiving yards -115.
Peoples-Jones disappeared last week in Green Bay, but he’s been a big part of this offense since Odell Beckham Jr. was released after Week 9. In the five games since then, he’s seen 6.2 targets per game.
SIS data projects he’ll have 3 receptions for 40 yards, more than 20% above the 32.5-yard level.
* Season record: 16-24
*Odds courtesy of DraftKings
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