The most effective deep passer in the NFL in the 2021 regular season was Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow.
Burrow led all passers in Total Points on pass attempts at least 20 yards downfield with 39.4. Among the 30 quarterbacks with the most pass attempts, he ranked third in Catchable Pass Percentage (75%) and first in touchdown passes (11), touchdown percentage (18%), and average net yards per attempt (17.7).
During the regular season, 12% of Burrow’s passes were deep throws (61 out of 520).
But in the postseason, Burrow has gone with a different approach. Only 6 of his 109 pass attempts have been deep throws (5.5%).
That may have to continue on Super Bowl Sunday given the formidable nature of the opposition.
The Rams ranked 9th in the NFL in Points Saved Per Play against deep throws in the regular season. But they’ve been even better in the playoffs.
Opposing quarterbacks are 2-for-11 when throwing a deep pass against the Rams in the postseason.
The Rams’ top two cornerbacks, Jalen Ramsey (who led all cornerbacks in Total Points during the regular season) and Darious Williams, have combined to allow only 6 completions on 26 deep attempts combining the regular season and postseason.
If Burrow completes anything deep against either of them, he’ll have definitely earned it.