Photo: William Purnell/Icon Sportswire

Prior to the season kicking off, the Baltimore Ravens were +400 to win the AFC. Those were the second-best odds behind only the Buffalo Bills, to whom they lost in the opener despite having a 99.1% win probability with 8:36 to go in the fourth quarter. Since then, not much has gone their way and they stand at 1-3 at the quarter pole with injury issues to boot. Even so, ESPN puts their chances of making the playoffs at 70% and their chances of winning the division at 47%, which puts them neck-and-neck with the 3-1 Steelers (71%/46%).

So, what gives? Let’s start with the fact that, in the past ten years, there have been 11 instances of 1-3 teams going on to make the playoffs. The 2024 Rams were the most recent team to do so, and the Patriots, Steelers, and Eagles all cracked the playoffs in 2021 after dropping three of their first four. That said, 88 teams have gotten off to a 1-3 start over that period, so very few of them have reached the postseason. Put another way: it may not be uncommon, but it is unlikely.

Now let’s deal with the particulars: The Ravens are dealing with quite a few injuries at the moment and have a two-game homestand before their bye week. Their schedule was a bit frontloaded and is quite soft after the bye, with those first six opponents sporting a combined 8-16 record. All told, they have the sixth-easiest schedule in terms of opponent net EPA/play after the bye – whereas the Steelers have the sixth-hardest – but they certainly don’t want to be 2-4 or 1-5 heading into it.

In the meantime, they’re missing a lot of key contributors. Nnamdi Madubuike has been ruled out for the season, and several starters did not participate in practice on Wednesday: quarterback Lamar Jackson, left tackle Ronnie Stanley, cornerback Marlon Humphrey, linebacker Roquan Smith, and cornerback Nate Wiggins. 

With the exception of Wiggins, who currently ranks 7th among corners in Pass Coverage Total Points/snap, all those players are tenured Ravens who have combined for roughly 5 wins above replacement (WAR) over the past two seasons. That’s a lot of firepower missing, with Jackson deemed ‘unlikely’ to play against the Texans, and Humphrey and Smith both expected to miss at least a few weeks with calf and hamstring injuries.

Assuming they can tread water over the next few weeks, they’ve got some things they’ll have to clean up moving forward. With the caveat being that they’ve faced some of the best passing offenses in the NFL and also the Chiefs, some of their defensive efficiency numbers aren’t the best.

Defensive coaches usually soapbox about tackling, stopping the run, preventing big plays, getting offenses into long down and distances, and creating turnovers, and the Ravens check only one of those boxes. They rank 6th in broken + missed tackle rate, but rank 27th in EPA allowed/rush, have neither forced nor recovered any fumbles, and have just 1 interception to 3 dropped interceptions. 

Worse though is the fact that opposing offenses have consistently been in manageable situations. In terms of opponents’ average distance to go on 2nd and 3rd down, the Ravens defense is in the 8th and 15th percentiles, respectively, of all defenses since 2016. That probably has something to do with them allowing a 43% 3rd down success rate, which is 6th percentile over the same timespan. Put more simply: opposing offenses have stayed on schedule and converted 3rd downs at a high rate accordingly.

There’s also the problematic dynamic of giving up a lot of big plays and not generating any to offset them. The Ravens pass D ranks 30th in boom rate (offensive plays which generate 1+ EPA) and 30th in bust rate (offensive plays which generate -1 EPA or less), which isn’t a great combination. Part of this is they’ve seen the second-most passes of 15+ air yards and have given up the third-most EPA on those passes. They had this problem last year in the aggregate, but corrected in the second half of the year when they ranked 3rd in boom rate and 2nd in bust rate from Week 10 onward.

On the offensive side of the ball, there have been some bad breaks in big games. The Derrick Henry fumbles were particularly unfortunate considering that he had fumbled just three times in the two previous seasons, and Baltimore lost a total of 36 percentage points of win probability on his fumbles against Buffalo and Detroit.

Matters were made worse by two three-and-outs against the Bills (-17% WPA) and one against the Lions (-14%), and the Ravens offense has just generally taken a downturn in 4th quarters this year. They’re the 7th-best offense in EPA/play through the first three quarters, and the 22nd-best in the 4th quarter. Stripping out turnovers lifts all offenses, but doing so suggests that theirs have been particularly untimely because their 4th quarter EPA/play looks pretty comparable.

There are also some run game balancing issues. Last year, they were top six in success rate on both zone and gap runs and were top 10 in gap usage, but this year they’ve skewed zone-heavy and have simultaneously fallen to 27th in zone success rate. And we should beware of small samples, but Derrick Henry is also tracking for the lowest broken + missed tackle rate of his career at just 4%.

The Ravens’ margin for error going forward is slim, especially in light of the injuries they’ve sustained. However, most 1-3 teams have not been as talented as Baltimore and have not had a two-time MVP quarterback. This is also a particularly weak division with Joe Burrow being out and the Browns being in, so the potential to claw back from down two games is there. Some of this stuff should work itself out over the long-term (e.g. fumble luck on both sides of the ball), but they’ll have to win more early downs on defense, which they should be able to do against their remaining schedule. But first, they have to get to the bye in one piece.