Photo: Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire

The third inning of the Padres-Giants game on August 21 was one in a series of nuisances for Dylan Cease last season.

First Luis Matos hit a fly ball to right center field that was very generously scored a triple when Fernando Tatis Jr. and Ramón Laureano had a miscommunication regarding who would catch it. Next, Andrew Knizner hit a fly ball down the right field line that Tatis played into a double (even Platinum Glove winners have bad days). Then Jung Hoo Lee hit a grounder to second that Jake Cronenworth botched for an error.

These three balls ranked in the top seven of the highest out probabilities on those hit against Cease last season. Each was 89% or higher.

I mentioned a series of nuisances because this game was just one example. The Padres totaled -11 Runs Saved on the balls hit against Cease in 2025. Only Logan Webb of the Giants got worse defensive support (-17 Runs Saved).

The Padres turned 69% of grounders and bunts into outs for Cease, a rate that ranked in the bottom 15% among pitchers with at least 125 grounders and bunts against them. They also ranked in the 27th percentile when it came to turning balls hit in the air against Cease into outs.

All of this jibes with Cease having a high ERA (4.55) but a pretty solid FIP (3.56), the latter being an ERA estimate based on his strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed. Erasing 11 runs off Cease’s ledger would drop his 2025 ERA by a half-run (presuming they’re all earned runs), so bad defense doesn’t necessarily entirely account for the differential between his ERA and his FIP, but it’s a nice-sized chunk.

This was the second time in three years that Cease’s defense didn’t do him any favors. In 2023, he finished with a 4.58 ERA and the White Sox defense had -7 Runs Saved behind him. Combining 2023, 2024, and 2025, Cease’s defenses have cost him 17 runs, the most of any pitcher in MLB.

So when you see Cease being ranked as the No. 1 or No. 2 pitching free agent available this winter, as he has been by most publications, it seems there’s an understanding that he’s better than his recent ERAs would indicate.

Least Defensive Support Received – 2025 Season