The AFC North has been playing a game of musical chairs at quarterback this season outside of the Steelers who have maintained some stability. The Browns, Ravens, and Bengals have all started three different QBs due to injury and insufficient performance from their backups. This has set up a dramatic division race to end the season as Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow have returned from early season injuries.

The Bengals and Ravens met on Thanksgiving night, and the Ravens squandered a prime opportunity to solidify their position and knock the Bengals out of the division race. Fortunately for the Ravens, they will have the chance to avenge their loss in two weeks in Cincinnati.

Let’s take a look at how these top signal callers have fared in their returns.

Lamar Jackson

Lamar suffered a right hamstring strain in Week 4 against the Chiefs that caused him to miss three games. Unfortunately, Jackson continues to pop up on the weekly injury report since his return with knee, ankle, and toe designations. He does not look fully healthy and his performance is suffering because of it. 

Part of what makes Jackson such a dynamic QB is his rushing ability, and that has suffered since the lower body injuries piled up. The table below shows the rushing stats for Jackson on designed QB runs (run plays that aren’t QB sneaks, kneels, or scrambles):

Lamar Jackson on Designated QB Runs

The Ravens are calling designed QB runs at a slightly lower rate and understandably so. Jackson’s efficiency in the run game has been almost cut in half and his inability to make defenders miss seems to be a driving factor. His effectiveness on scrambles has also taken a hit:

Jackson has had to scramble a bit more since his return, but without the same impact when healthy. It’s definitely a good thing that he hasn’t avoided scrambling altogether as it shows he still has faith in his legs, despite all the injuries. The threat of him being able to extend plays and scramble opens up things in the passing game. 

However, Jackson has been struggling throwing the ball, as well. Among 36 QBs with 50 or more pass attempts since Week 9, Jackson ranks 2nd-worst in On-Target% at 61%. The only QB worse than him? JJ McCarthy. 

The Ravens will need Jackson to step up his play at the end of the season if they want to win the AFC North. Their defense has struggled against the pass this season, ranking in the bottom half of our Total Points player value stat. Their inability to sack the QB has been a big issue, as they rank in the bottom 5 in both pressure rate and sack rate. The Ravens have not been able to rely on their defense like they have in the past.

Joe Burrow

Burrow made his return from a Grade 3 turf toe injury that required surgery and will look to build upon a huge Thanksgiving win to make an improbable comeback to win the division. Burrow wore a “hard plate” to protect his injured left toe, so it does seem like he is still battling the injury to some extent.

Looking at the table below, we can compare Burrow’s Week 1 performance to his recent Thanksgiving performance: 

Joe Burrow – 2025 Season

The Bengals didn’t limit Burrow at all in his return as he dropped back to pass 48 times in a game they won comfortably in the second half. His accuracy dropped a bit in his first game back, but his effectiveness only dropped marginally. He doesn’t appear to be having issues throwing to any one side of the field as the On-Target% remains similar to both directions. 

Similar to the Ravens, the Bengals will need their star QB to carry the load as the Bengals defense against the pass has been putrid. They rank last in Total Points in pass coverage with 24. For comparison, the Commanders are the next worst with 45 Total Points. That’s a  concerning difference. They also have not been able to rush the passer at an effective rate, with pressure and sack rates right in line with the aforementioned Ravens. 

It wasn’t a vintage Burrow performance by any means, but it was an encouraging first game back after missing a significant portion of the season. My colleague, Bryce Rossler, wrote an article last year about QB performance when returning from a significant injury. A key takeaway is that it takes about four games for a QB to return to his pre-injury form. Lamar Jackson doesn’t quite meet the threshold of missing at least four games that this article is based on, but I think it is still useful for what to expect for the rest of the season.

AFC North Ramifications

While talking about the AFC North division race, we’d be remiss not to mention the Pittsburgh Steelers. After a hot start to the season and a commanding lead in the division, they now sit tied with the Ravens at 6-6. Aaron Rodgers has gotten banged up recently dealing with a left wrist injury that caused him to miss a game before re-injuring it upon his return. They desperately need him to stay healthy to try and right the ship, which says something because he has been below-average on the whole this year. 

This division race might come down to whichever QB can find their pre-injury form the fastest. Historical data says Jackson should have the advantage there, but lingering lower-body injuries may prevent us from seeing Jackson at his best the rest of this season. 

Can Burrow, the two-time Comeback Player of the Year, lead the Bengals to an improbable division comeback? They will need Burrow to buck the four-game trend as they head to Buffalo this week before a rematch at home against Baltimore that may decide their fate.