Photos: John McLoughlin (l) and Jevone Moore (r)/Icon Sportswire

It was a rough week for high-profile injuries, with Patrick Mahomes and Micah Parsons tearing their ACLs and Davante Adams aggravating a hamstring injury. 

There can be a whole conversation about what Mahomes’ injury means for his career and the Chiefs’ place in history, but situations like this are once-a-decade so there isn’t much to judge from historically. Instead I want to focus on what we could learn about the Parsons and Adams injuries and their return (next year for Parsons, this year for Adams).

Davante Adams

The Rams’ No. 2 receiver aggravated a mild hamstring injury in the win over the Lions. He had been playing through it, continuing a strong campaign in which he easily leads the league with 14 receiving touchdowns. 

The touchdowns are a bit of a distraction from the fact that he ranks 34th in receptions, 25th in yards, and 46th in EPA, but his individual contributions have been notable in that they’ve somewhat unlocked Puka Nacua as well.

Rams Receiving Production, 2024-25

Remember that Total Points is our total player value metric that operates in the same currency as EPA. So Adams is outperforming Cooper Kupp’s 2024, but his individual contribution isn’t as extreme as the total productivity of his targets (taking into account the play of others). Nacua was excellent last year, but he’s been otherworldly this year. And there are three games left to pad these totals.

As for what to expect for the rest of Adams’ season, the Rams’ playoff standing is relevant. Depending on the severity of the strain, hamstring injuries could linger for a few weeks, and there are also ramifications on Adams’ productivity once he does return. 

Taking a sample from our injury data, the average games missed for a Grade 1 strain is around one game, while a Grade 2 strain is closer to three games. But it should also be noted that even the first game or two back from the injury could be a problem.

I looked at about 30 wide receiver hamstring injuries over the last several seasons and how much/well they played upon their return, compared to their previous year’s average.

The results (as seen in the 2 images below) suggest that we should expect Adams to see a slight drop-off in playing time in his first several games, and his per-play output will take a couple games to return to normal.

Micah Parsons

The preseason trade of Parsons was one of the stories of the year, and he was having a strong season up until his knee injury this past weekend. Parsons was second in the NFL in pressures and third in sacks despite being eighth in pass rush snaps, unsurprisingly ranking as one of the best pass rushers in the NFL per Total Points.

In terms of the overall impact to the team, the Packers gained about 4 percentage points on their team pressure rate over last year. Parsons continued to be a weak run defender (below-zero Total Points, which is roughly replacement-level), but Green Bay roughly treaded water in terms of run defense EPA per play and success rate (improved in the former, declined in the latter).

In looking at a recent sample of 11 edge rushers who tore their ACLs and played at least 9 games after the injury, we can expect a pretty meaningful productivity drop-off in the year following Parson’s return.

Edge rusher productivity changes following an ACL tear

* If we assume a floor of 1.5 seconds on this metric

The average age for this group at the time of the injury was 26, same as Parsons, so we don’t have a strong reason to suspect his recovery will be notably better. And the late injury opens up the possibility that he’ll miss time to start off 2026, let alone the above concerns once he does suit up.

For now, the Packers will have to make do without their top defensive player, and that’s coming on the heels of losing DT Devonte Wyatt for the season. For Rashan Gary, the pressure is on (pun not intended), especially since his first seven games were worth 25 Total Points compared to just 6 over his last seven games.