Heading into the 2025-2026 season, expectations were low in Charlotte. The Hornets had three straight seasons of fewer than 30 wins and hadn’t made a playoff appearance since the 2015-2016 season, where they lost 4-3 in the first round to the Miami Heat. They struggled coming out of the gate again this year, starting the season with a dismal 4-14 record and nearing the end of January at 16-28. 

Everything flipped on January 22, when the Hornets notched the first victory of what would become a 9-game winning streak in Orlando. According to NBA Stats, Charlotte has had the second best record in the league since then at 27-8, behind only the San Antonio Spurs (30-5). They’ve also tacked on winning streaks of five and six games for good measure, rising to 8th in the Eastern Conference and a half game back from avoiding the play-in altogether. 

So what’s been the catalyst behind this out-of-nowhere turnaround? The Hornets have had massive improvement on both ends of the floor, with two players standing out: rookie phenomenon Kon Knueppel and Moussa Diabate, who entered the starting lineup in late December.

Kon Kneuppel has elevated Charlotte to an elite offense

Knueppel’s in-season leap on the offensive end of the floor has been the most obvious reason for the Hornet’s success. Within the SIS framework, Points Per Chance (PPC) is defined as points scored per opportunity that leads to a result in the same offensive sequence. 

PPC+ is defined as the difference between a player’s or team’s actual PPC and its expected PPC. In other words, is a player or team scoring at a higher rate than expected given the type and difficulty of their shots.

Hornets Offense (NBA Rank in Parentheses)

The Hornets started the season scoring 1.05 PPC, but have increased that to 1.08 since January 22nd while also improving their PPC+. While that may not seem big, it translates to an improvement in offensive rating from 117 to 121.9, an increase of 4.9 points per 100 possessions.

Not only is 121.9 higher than Denver’s current league-leading offense (121.1), but 4.9 is equal to the gap between Denver’s offensive rating and Minnesota’s 17th-ranked offensive rating (116.2) !

Kon Knueppel (Percentile in Parentheses)

Much of this improvement can be attributed to Knueppel, who has seen similar improvements in his own offense. Kneuppel started the season scoring in the 68th percentile of PPC, but has since spiked to the 89th percentile. One reason for that jump has been his ability to manufacture high-value shots for both himself and others.

Kneuppel’s PPC in self-created situations has improved from 0.95 to 1.02 PPC, elevating him from the 70th to the 81st percentile. His increased offensive prowess, highlighted by breaking the Hornets record for made 3s in a season, coupled with Charlotte’s ascensions are undoubtedly why Kneuppel has emerged as a Rookie of the Year favorite.

Moussa Diabate has been an unheralded linchpin of the Hornet’s defense

In between the 4-14 start and the 9-game winning streak, the Hornets were playing close to .500 basketball, going 12-14 in a roughly two month stretch. Part of that upswing came from swapping Ryan Kalkbrenner for Moussa Diabate in the starting lineup on December 23rd.

Hornets Defense (NBA Rank in Parentheses)

Through the first two months of the season, the Hornets were tied for the 25th worst defense in PPC while also ranking 29th in PPC+ allowed. After adding Diabate to the starting lineup, they have improved to 3rd in PPC allowed, 5th in PPC+ allowed, and their defensive rating has gone from 117.4 to 111.1. Their defensive rating improvement of 6.3 is even more dramatic than their offensive rating change noted above! Some of this turnaround can be credited to their pick-and-roll defense with Diabate, which has gone from ranking 17th in the league to 8th.

Hornets Defense (Percentile in Parentheses)

Diabate and Kalkbrenner have been equal at defending screens off the bench. But as a starter, Diabate holds a significant edge in screen defense allowing .97 PPC, which would be just above league average in the 55th percentile. Kalkbrenner allowed 1.05 PPC as a screen defender, ranking in the 26th percentile. 

An even bigger advantage might have more to do with the schemes each player can execute. With Kalkbrenner, the Hornets operate almost exclusively in drop coverage due to his ability to protect the rim. But, that often allows for dribble penetration into the paint and/or an easy pass to an opposing big that can shoot from outside. 

Diabate is more mobile, allowing him to sometimes switch ball screens or hedge and recover, enabling other players to play in gaps and be more aggressive. With all other starters constant (LaMelo Ball, Kon Knueppel, Miles Bridges, and Brandon Miller), there is a stark difference in the defensive playmaking ranks with Diabate on the floor.

Hornets Lineup

At SIS, the foundation of basketball data collection is advantage creation, maintenance and prevention. In other words, what do players do on the court to create and prevent high value shots? SIS Data scouts tag different advantage levels, and changes in advantage levels are often attributed to O-plays (like a really good screen or timely cut) and D-plays (like extreme pressure via a double team or deflecting a pass). 

The starting lineup with Diabate is elite at defensive playmaking, ranking in the top 10 in positive D-plays, steals, deflections, and advantages prevented out of all 5-man lineups that have played this season, of which there are thousands!

The Hornets are headed towards the postseason with a borderline top five offense and defense, and their ascent in the back half of the season is reminiscent of the Pacers last year. Both teams have the 2nd best record since January 1st, have a playmaking point guard (Ball and Haliburton), an elite secondary ball-handler and scorer (Knueppel and Nembhard), a sparkplug guard off the bench (White and McConnell), and go 9+ into their bench rotation. The Pacers, of course, made it to Game 7 of the NBA Finals.

If current standings were to hold the Hornets would be matched up against the Pistons, a series that might have some extra juice given their hostility towards each other earlier this year. Regardless of matchup, however, don’t be surprised to see Charlotte make a deep run in the playoffs.

All stats through Sunday’s games