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  • 2023 SIS Pac-12 All-Conference Team

    2023 SIS Pac-12 All-Conference Team

    It’s finally time to release our SIS All-Conference teams. We used our all-encompassing player value stat, Total Points, along with other metrics and our scouting work as leading references in putting together our team of selections for 2023, plus some honorable mentions.

    You can learn more about Total Points and the statistics referenced here.

    These picks are meant to honor this season’s best-of-the-best in the Pac-12.

    Offense

    Position Name School
    QB Michael Penix Jr. Washington
    RB Bucky Irving Oregon
    WR Rome Odunze Washington
    WR Tetairoa McMillan Arizona
    TE Tanner McLachlan Arizona
    FLEX Damien Martinez Oregon State
    OT Roger Rosengarten Washington
    OT Jordan Morgan Arizona
    OG Marcus Harper II Oregon
    OG Steven Jones Oregon
    OC Jackson Powers-Johnson Oregon

    Michael Penix Jr. may have played his way into this spot with a great CFP, but it was a great overall season when you see he threw for the most yards, air yards, and intended air yards in all of college football, all while being pressured the 10th-most in FBS. Odunze and McMillan’s 48 Total Points put them just behind Malik Nabers for most among wide receivers in the country. 

    The three-headed monster of Oregon interior linemen ranked 1st (Harper II), 4th (Jones), and 1st (Powers-Johnson) in the conference in Total Points at their respective positions, and Powers-Johnson’s Total Points Rank per Snap ranked 4th among centers in the country.

    Defense

    Position Name School
    DT Bear Alexander USC
    DT Jay Toia UCLA
    EDGE Laiatu Latu UCLA
    EDGE Brennan Jackson Washington State
    LB Easton Mascarenas-Arnold Oregon State
    LB Karene Reid Utah
    CB Jabbar Muhammad Washington
    CB Travis Hunter Colorado
    S Kitan Oladapo Oregon State
    S Akili Arnold Oregon State
    FLEX Nohl Williams California

    Latu and Jackson not only led the conference in Total Points among edge rushers, they led the entire country as well. Latu tied for 6th-most sacks in the country with 12 and was 2nd with 65 pressures. Travis Hunter amassed 32 Total Points on the defensive side of the ball, and while that’s not substantial compared to some of his fellow corners in the conference (given his injury cost him some time), it’s incredibly impressive since he played consistent snaps on both sides of the ball. Lastly, the Oregon State safety duo compiled 116 Total Points between them, with Oladapo accounting for 64 of them.

    Specialists

    Position Name School
    K Joshua Karty Stanford
    P Ross James Oregon
    Returner Zachariah Branch USC

    Joshua Karty’s 22 made field goals were most in the conference and his 4 makes beyond 50 yards tied him for 3rd-best in the country. What’s more impressive is he made more field goals than he did extra points, going 21-of-21 on PATs, which unfortunately tells you a lot about Stanford’s offense this year. Ross James punted only 27 times, but his punt average ranked 4th in FBS (48.4) and net average ranked 8th (45.0), and he pinned the opposition inside the 20 on 41% of them. Branch was the only player in FBS to return at least one kick and punt for a touchdown in 2023. He averaged 22.6 yards per punt return which ranked 3rd in FBS among returners with at least 10 punt returns.

    Honorable Mentions

    Name School
    QB Caleb Williams USC
    QB Bo Nix Oregon
    RB Jonah Coleman Arizona
    WR Troy Franklin Oregon
    TE Jack Velling Oregon State
    OL Ajani Cornelius Oregon
    OL Josh Connerly Jr. Oregon
    ED Grayson Murphy UCLA
    ED Jonah Elliss Utah
    LB Jacob Manu Arizona
    LB Darius Muasau UCLA
    S Sione Vaki Utah

    Two quarterbacks claim an Honorable Mention as Penix, Nix, and Williams ranked Nos. 2, 3, and 4 in Total Points among FBS quarterbacks. Troy Franklin ranked Top 8 in FBS in receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, Yards per Route Run, Yards per Target, and Receiver Rating. Cornelius and Connerly round out the Oregon offense line, Elliss’s 12 sacks tied for 6th-most in the country, and Vaki was a two-way player seeing action at both safety and running back.

    Check out this year’s NFL Draft site to see how we feel some of these players project to the NFL.

    Total Points, stats, and ranks as of 2/27/2023

  • The One Key To Winning Super Bowl LVIII for the Chiefs and 49ers

    The One Key To Winning Super Bowl LVIII for the Chiefs and 49ers

    Let’s get right to the point: What’s the most important thing for each team going into Super Bowl LVIII?

    Chiefs: Catch the ball!

    As a preface, let’s talk about Brock Purdy a bit (and this is Chiefs-related).

    Perhaps the biggest reason the 49ers are in this game is that Brock Purdy delivered four interceptable passes that the Lions got their hands (or faces) on, but they only converted one into a turnover. 

    Purdy has been a revelation for the 49ers, but he has lived a charmed life, for sure. Ignoring the embarrassment of riches available to him at the skill positions, he has delivered quite a few turnover-worthy throws that have fallen for (relatively) harmless incompletions.

    Of the top 10 quarterbacks in EPA per pass attempt this year (minimum 300 attempts including playoffs), he’s the only one to have more than 4 percent interceptable throws—and he’s at 5 percent. Purdy has also been intercepted less than half those times, which puts him among the more fortunate passers in this regard. 

    Let’s compare with a noted gunslinger, Josh Allen.

    Turnover-worthy throws in 2023

    Turnover Worthy % Intercepted Dropped
    Brock Purdy 5.1% 12 14
    Josh Allen 3.2% 18 3

    Our own Bryce Rossler has driven this home on our podcast multiple times over the last month: as a defense facing the 49ers, Brock Purdy is going to throw you the ball. You just need to catch it.

    Unsurprisingly, the hands thing matters for the offense as well. The Lions pass catchers dropped multiple late-down attempts themselves, not wanting their defense to have all the fun. 

    The Chiefs are as likely as any team to have hands issues. Only the Browns dropped more passes during the regular season, and Chiefs pass catchers were in the bottom ten in On-Target Catch Rate, wasting some good throws by Patrick Mahomes. The group has been better overall as the season has gone on, but they still have dropped multiple passes in four of the last seven games, and they don’t have as much margin for error as an offense as they did a few years ago. 

    49ers: Run with your advantage in the run game

    If the Lions showed the blueprint for how not to beat the 49ers, the Ravens might have shown how not to beat the Chiefs. 

    Kansas City was in the bottom group of teams in both EPA and Success Rate allowed against the run through 20 weeks, and despite having a 50% success rate on eight designed runs in the first half, Baltimore called just 3 in the second half in a winnable game.

    So here come the 49ers, who rank in the top 2 in both EPA and Success Rate on designed runs. Their reliability as an offense as a whole hinges on their ability to make hay on the ground, in part because of that note above about Brock Purdy’s penchant for pickable passes.

    EPA/Attempt (Rank) Success Rate (Rank)
    49ers offense 0.00 (1st) 46% (3rd)
    Chiefs defense -0.03 (29th) 42% (26th)

    They have the most consistent running back in the league in Christian McCaffrey, who had some workload concerns in Carolina but combined top-of-the-league efficiency with top-of-the-league volume in his first full year in San Francisco.

    If this team gets away from the run in this spot, something has gone horribly wrong.

    And if we like building narratives about establishing the run and using play action alongside it, the Chiefs offer a real opportunity. They saw as much play action on defense as anyone and ranked in the middle of the pack in EPA per play allowed, while they ranked as the best defense in the NFL on other pass attempts. 

    San Francisco (somewhat surprisingly) doesn’t rely on play fakes much, but whether the 49ers actually hand it off or not it makes sense for them to show run quite a bit in this matchup.

  • Senior Bowl Day 3 Recap

    Senior Bowl Day 3 Recap

    Photo by Zebadayah Ataelseed

    Day 3 featured some unexpected call-ups and some heavy sleepers. Whose stock rose and whose dropped? Here’s our list. 

    National Team

    RB – Dylan Laube – New Hampshire – Buy

    Dylan Laube has been the biggest sleeper coming into the Senior Bowl, but his performance this week has certainly put him on the radar of scouts and coaches. His route running is good and polished, he stacks his defenders quickly and does a nice job of attacking the defender’s outside foot. He will provide a nice jolt of speed for any offense he plays in on the next level.  

    CB – Khyree Jackson – Oregon – Buy

    Khyree Jackson’s 6’3” frame and elite speed caused some issues for wide receivers. He has the size to stay physical against aggressive route runners and has the speed to stay stride for stride against speed receivers. His hips are fluid and his recovery speed shined. 

    RB – MarShawn Lloyd – USC – Buy

    MarShawn Lloyd showcased a handful of good traits. He flourished in the passing game, consistently making catches in traffic and showed solid route running and being able to dig his feet into the ground to quickly change direction. He also showed good vision in the run game with nice cutbacks and elusiveness to win extra yards before contact.  

    Honorable Mentions

    IOL – Dominick Puni – Kansas – Buy

    Dominick Puni had a solid outing taking reps at both guard and center showing out his good strength and solid anchor ability. 

    CB – Kalen King – Penn State – Sell

    I haven’t been sold on Kalen King after this week’s set of practices. His reaction speed and fluidity weren’t consistent enough, getting easily beaten by some of the underperformers this week. 

    American Team

    TE – Ben Sinnot – Kansas State – Buy

    Ben Sinnot was one of the more highly touted tight ends coming into the Senior Bowl. However, he didn’t live up to the hype until now. We saw his good route-running ability show up multiple times in different periods of practice. He does a nice job of getting in and out of his cuts to quickly beat the receiver while also showing some good hands and body control.

    DL – Justin Eboigbe – Alabama – Buy

    Eboigbe had a nice day at the office, winning most of his 1-on-1 reps. He showed a nice combination of power and finesse in the pass rush. He got stifled a bit by outside tackle Texas product Christian Jones when using straight power. However, aside from that he had an encouraging day for scouts and coaches. 

    OT – Travis Glover – Georgia State – Buy

    Travis Glover was a late call-up and arrived in Mobile Wednesday morning. He made the most out of his call up impressing coaches during 1-on-1 and team sessions. He showed good anchor and solid feet being able to stay in front of the defender. He got a little fiery towards the end of the 1-on-1 sections going up against Texas Tech defensive lineman Myles Cole where he won the rep nicely but could’ve caused an in-game penalty for some extracurriculars. 

    Honorable Mentions

    LB – Jackson Sirmon – Cal – Buy

    Jackson Sirmon had himself a solid day, showing out his athleticism, ball-hawking, and hustle gave him the play of the day picking off Joe Milton (almost twice).

    S – Tykee Smith – Georgia – Hold

    Tykee Smith can start to rise if he builds off of this practice into the game on Saturday, it took a couple of days for him to shine but  he did just that coming off with a pick off a deflection, and nice sticky coverages for multiple pass break-ups on the day. 

  • Senior Bowl Day 2 Recap

    Senior Bowl Day 2 Recap

    By Zebadayah Ataelseed & Ryan Rubinstein

    Day 2 was a better day for defense than offense. Whose stock rose and whose dropped? Here’s our list. 

    National Team

    WR – Roman Wilson – Michigan – Buy

    Roman Wilson stood tall as one of the only receivers to show consistency from Day 1. He showed out his solid line of scrimmage release and very good body control and hands. During the post-practice competitive period, Roman Wilson called out Senior Bowl standout Quinyon Mitchell. The Michigan product answered the bell by quickly stacking Mitchell and making a very good acrobatic catch on the sideline. 

    LB – Payton Wilson – North Carolina State – Buy

    Payton Wilson was one of the more notable players having high expectations coming into the Senior Bowl and Wednesday he arrived to the scene with a bang. His one-on-one coverage skills have been solid and very sticky against running backs. His agility and break to the ball showed out in a big way. Aside from some of his coverage skills, he showed great communication and command of the defensive huddle. Wilson should continue to impress throughout the week. 

    EDGE – Austin Booker – Kansas – Buy

    Austin Booker turned some heads with a great display of pass-rush ability. He easily had two of the best rushes of the week, each within a few plays of each other. Booker was able to win with speed, finesse, and strength, drawing a handful of reactions from coaches and scouts alike.  

    Honorable Mentions

    WR – Devontez Walker – University of North Carolina – Sell

    Devontez Walker had a rough outing today during the second day of practice. He was consistently able to generate space and separation but had wasted steps and significant drops. 

    CB – Quinyon Mitchell – Toledo – Buy

    Although Mitchell’s Day 2 wasn’t as perfect as his Day 1, he still had a very good showing leveraging a lot of agility, tracking, and ballhawking. 

    American Team

    DL – Darius Robinson – Missouri – Buy

    Darius Robinson put on a clinic today on Day 2. His tall wiry frame coupled with his good speed caused issues for tackles and guards all day today. He notably won a lot using his ‘Swipe and Swim’ moves, beating out Senior Bowl standout Tyler Guyton. His inside/ outside versatility caused issues in both the run and pass game. 

    CB – DJ James – Auburn – Hold

    James’s stock can slowly start to rise after today. He showed solid route recognition, consistently jumping routes and making plays on the ball. There were times he got a little too excited and drew a couple of flags because of it but his knack for being aggressive might very well pay off for him if he can capitalize on interceptions and not drop them. 

    WR – Jha’Quan Jackson – Tulane – Buy

    Jha’Quan Jackson had himself a day, similar to Roman Wilson, Jackson showed up when it seemed like a lot of other receivers didn’t. His combination of quickness, speed, and separation has been fun to watch all week. He certainly is increasing his stock if he keeps playing at this level for the rest of the week. 

    Honorable Mentions

    OG – Christian Haynes – UCONN – Buy

    Haynes, who previously faced scrutiny for needing to improve his toughness, showcased significant growth. Taking snaps at both right guard and center, his resilience shined bright, surpassing many others on the field.

    OT – Christian Jones – Texas – Hold

    Christian Jones was labeled a potential riser for some, overall we’d have to hold some of his stocks. He had some notable wins against Day 2 standout Darius Robinson but when he lost, he lost badly.

  • Senior Bowl Day 1 Recap

    Senior Bowl Day 1 Recap

    By Zebadayah Ataelseed & Ryan Rubinstein

    As the curtain opened on Day 1 of Senior Bowl practices, the football field transformed into a testing ground for emerging talent. Players displayed their skills, making a notable impression on scouts and coaches alike. From precision passes to great defensive plays, the opening day of Senior Bowl practices spotlighted individuals whose practice performances left an immediate impact.

    In this analysis, we focus on the players whose stocks we should buy, sell, or hold, offering insights into their skills and early potential. As the scouting season progresses, these athletes have already positioned themselves as noteworthy prospects, with their Day 1 displays signaling readiness for the challenges of the professional level.

    National Team Team

    CB – Quinyon Mitchell – Toledo – Buy

    In a standout performance,  Mitchell showcased an extraordinary blend of sticky coverage, ball awareness, and physicality. He spent most of his day jumping routes and breaking up passes. He easily won the day for the National Team practice and it’ll be hard to see him drop outside of the 1st round if he keeps up this level of play this week.

    OL – Jackson Powers-Johnson – Oregon – Buy

    Powers-Johnson, “the Oregon product,” took snaps both at center and right guard, and he impressed in both positions. He had some rough reps against the straight power rush but also won easily against speed, swim, and other finesse moves. Powers-Johnson’s anchor, strength, and punch power give him all the tools to finish defenders into the ground. Overall, he’s a great product coming out of Oregon. 

    WR – Roman Wilson – Michigan – Buy

    Roman Wilson had a solid day both during the one-on-one session and the 7v7 session. His release off the line of scrimmage and separation quickness helped him win a lot of reps today. He has a knack for stacking defenders and keeping them on their heels while also possessing some good straight-line speed to torch defenders down the seam. 

    Honorable Mentions

    RB – Dylan Laube – New Hampshire – Buy

    Laube’s stock is increasing, fueled by his impressive 20.44 MPH speed. A potential small-school sleeper, he showcases a rare blend of speed and explosiveness that sets him apart as a surprise standout prospect. 

    WR – Brendan Rice – USC – Neutral

    Rice did well fighting through contact, and his catch-in-traffic ability is easily among the best of the day. 

    American Team

    WR – Ladd McConkey – University of Georgia – Buy

    McConkey’s stand-out performance was by far the best for the American team practice and arguably the best out of the two practices. McConkey’s route running, agility, and route separation have caused issues for every DB across from him. There’s an argument to be made that he was genuinely open on every route he ran on the day. 

    OT – Patrick Paul – Houston – Buy

    Paul had a solid day overall. His length is outstanding and his feet are quick enough to be a factor on the next level. Paul won a lot of his reps but didn’t dominate. He needs to finish some of his blocks a little more, but otherwise, it was a good outing for the Houston product. 

    WR – Xavier Legette – South Carolina – Sell

    I am not buying the Legette stock based on today. While he has an impressive frame, his woes stem from his lack of route separation, speed, and foot quickness. His feet were very choppy during the drill session. His size provides some promise on the next level, but he needs to perform a lot better going forward. 

    Honorable Mentions

    DT – Braden Fiske – Florida State – Buy

    Fiske won a lot of his reps today by using some of his great flexibility, quickness off the ball, and sheer power to plow through the line and consistently disrupt plays.

    OT – Tyler Guyton – Oklahoma – Buy

    On every rep Guyton took today he showed power and nastiness. This Oklahoma product will look to propel himself up draft boards in the next couple of days. 

  • Where Did It All Go Wrong For The Eagles?

    Where Did It All Go Wrong For The Eagles?

    BY ALEX VIGDERMAN AND BRYCE ROSSLER

    In what is inarguably one of the most surprising collapses in NFL history, the Eagles are out of the 2023 playoffs. They had gone 26-5 since the start of 2022, and then finished the 2023 season losing six of seven games. Jason Kelce is apparently retiring, Nick Sirianni is on the hot seat apparently. It’s all bad.

    For a team with this one’s preseason and midseason expectations, the loss to the Buccaneers is a major disappointment. But throughout the season the Eagles had shown themselves to be a shadow of their 2022 selves, so it’s not entirely surprising.

    Looking just at the per-game scoring differential, the Eagles had led the league in 2022 (including the playoffs), while they were only seventh through their 10-1 start to 2023. And remember, that included consecutive wins against the Chiefs, Bills, and Cowboys at the end of that stretch.

    After that point, Philly posted the second-worst per-game point differential in the NFL (including their loss a couple days ago). 

    And that doesn’t tell the whole story, because their opponents were also notably worse in this stretch than they’d faced prior. Per the team strength model that SIS uses within its win probability model, their poor performance came against substantially worse opponents than their previous ones.

    The Eagles played worse against worse opponents down the stretch
     

    Time Frame Record Point Diff Rank Strength of Schedule
    2022 (All) 16-4 1st 7th
    2023 (Through W12) 10-1 7th 7th
    2023 (W13 and on) 1-6 31st 22nd

    But even before the crash the team wasn’t exactly running on all cylinders, as a 10-1 start might suggest. By Total Points per play they ranked outside the 10 best teams, ranking 9th on offense and 16th on defense. Heck, the 5-6 Falcons were better than the Eagles in Total Points Per Play to that point in the season.

    Through the rest of the 2023 season, the Eagles lost their edge on defense while maintaining solid (if slightly disappointing) offense.

    Eagles Total Points per Play Ranks

    Time Frame Offense Rank Defense Rank
    2022 (All) 2nd 5th
    2023 (Through W12) 9th 16th
    2023 (W13 and on) 10th 29th

    With that setting the scene, let’s take a look at some of the key failings of the 2023 version.

    Dropping the opposing quarterback

    Perhaps the most noticeable difference between these consecutive Eagles seasons is the performance of the pass rush. They pressured the quarterback at nearly identical rates (36% and 35%), but in 2023 the sacks didn’t come nearly as often (6% in 2023 compared to 11% in 2022). 

    That’s just straight up regression that anyone could have seen coming. The 2022 Eagles led the NFL with 29% of pressures becoming a sack, a rate that only one team in the last several seasons has gotten close to (the 2021 Bears). In the seasons surrounding those seasons, neither of those top teams achieved even a 20% rate. Even with the addition of Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate Jalen Carter, they weren’t going to retain that production.

    Big holes in the middle of the field

    It turns out that acquiring a big-name player that had been released midseason isn’t a slam-dunk move. The Shaquille Leonard addition didn’t help a linebacker group that ended the season with both starting linebackers in the bottom quintile on a per-play basis by Total Points.

    With those limitations and the loss of slot corner Avonte Maddox for most of the year, the Eagles allowed 24% of 15-yard or shorter throws between the numbers to go for a big EPA gain, which was the sixth-worst rate in the league. These underneath defenders were very visible on Monday (in a bad way), and while they didn’t yield monster plays over the middle, they were beaten consistently to the tune of 8.3 Y/A.

    RP-Oh-No

    For years the Eagles’ offensive calling card has been the RPO game. It was the crutch that supported Nick Foles’ outstanding 2017 playoff run. 

    In 2022 the Eagles gained almost a quarter of an Expected Point per play on RPOs. That was the best SIS has charted (since 2018). In 2023, they were almost exactly league average. 

    This drop-off drove the overall offensive downturn in both the passing and running game.

    Eagles RPO Success Rate in the passing game
     

    RPO No RPO
    2022 59% 43%
    2023 49% 45%

    Eagles RPO Success Rate in the running game

    RPO No RPO
    2022 52% 48%
    2023 45% 46%

    A limited Jalen Hurts capped their upside

    Jalen Hurts was famously successful on quarterback sneaks this year. He had 12 more first downs on sneaks than any other quarterback had sneak attempts in 2023. And that resulted in a lot of successful drives that other teams wouldn’t have had.

    But especially with a nagging knee injury, his designed runs outside of those sneaks were dramatically less effective. He not only attempted 10 fewer designed runs, but he was stuffed for no gain or worse more than twice as often, and had one-quarter the broken and missed tackles per attempt.

    Going back to the RPO point, Hurts struggled with quick-game accuracy. He ranked 8th in On-Target Rate on RPOs and 1-step drops in 2022 and 24th in 2023 (minimum 50 attempts). And there wasn’t a similar fall-off on deeper drops, for what it’s worth.

    With a simplified offensive scheme and an RPO-heavy approach, you need the skill position players to be elite and/or the quarterback to be precise to be a top offense. The Eagles had only one of those things this year.

    How do they look going forward?

    The Eagles can’t confidently run it back and say they just suffered from weird variance in the second half. They were a good-not-great team when they were running well.

    There have to be changes made on the defensive side to shore up an extremely leaky unit from the end of the year. They will have to grapple with questions in the secondary and at linebacker, with aging cornerbacks on the outside and an extremely flawed interior. It’ll be another offseason talking about the impending departure of Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham, who each flashed but generally had down years (understandably for old fogeys).

    The offense has the talent to be a top-five unit and should with little effort be a Top 10 unit provided Hurts is healthier and the offensive line can coalesce without All-Pro (and Total Points leader) Jason Kelce. But it’s clear at this point that the quarterback isn’t an MVP candidate without dynamic athleticism, so the scheme needs to elevate him as much as he elevates the offense.

  • Wild Card Week Parlay Picks: Baker Mayfield, Jaylen Warren, Amon-Ra St. Brown

    Wild Card Week Parlay Picks: Baker Mayfield, Jaylen Warren, Amon-Ra St. Brown

    Photo: Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire

    For the last couple of weeks of the NFL season, I’m trying something different with our analytic data by testing how useful it is on parlays. We’ll use Total Points, our player projections, and other information at our disposal to make picks.

    Each of my parlays will have an underdog (+120 to +245) or superdog (+250), with the remaining 2 legs consisting of a combination of even money (-115 to +115), favorite (-120 to -245), and heavy favorite (-250) lines. I’ll also incorporate teasers to achieve a degree of balance where possible.

    After starting this run with a win, we’ve missed on our last two attempts, with last week’s effort doomed by George Pickens and his mystifying zero targets. But again, the odds here are always long, and many Baseball Writers Association members would consider a .333 career batting average to be Hall-of-Fame worthy. 

    Without further ado, here are my picks for Wild Card Weekend:

    Underdog – Baker Mayfield Alternate Passing Yards, Over 246.5 @ +135

    Our Trenches Matchup Tool, available on The33rdTeam.com, gives the Tampa Bay offensive line the best pass blocking matchup across the league this week. 

    On the year, the Eagles have given up the fifth most passing yards and second most completions, with opposing teams averaging 270 yards per game against them. They’ve allowed an opposing QB Rating of 97.9, a number that ballooned to 104.3 over their past six games. 

    On the other hand, the Bucs offense has been on a roll recently. Mayfield has averaged 277.5 over his last four games with a couple of 300+ yard performances mixed in. Factor in that Mayfield has topped 246.5 in 4 of his last home 5 games and he’s our pick.

    Even – Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards, Over 17.5 @ -115

    Warren has the 20th most yards after catch (492) of any player this season, and forces broken or missed tackles at a rate of 36 per 100 receptions, the 12th-highest rate in the league.

    He’s averaged 21.8 receiving yards per game, and 25.4 over his last 5 contests. He cleared our 17.5 yard goal in four of those contests, with the lone miss being by half of a yard last weekend against Baltimore.

    The Bills also gave up an average of 21.2 yards per game and 6.2 yards per attempt (12th- worst) on screen targets this year. With weather conditions in Buffalo expected to limit the ability to throw the ball downfield, Warren could see additional opportunities on screens.

    Favorite – Amon-Ra St. Brown Alternate Receiving Yards, Over 79.5 @ -165

    Our projection model projects a big week for the Sun-God, with an estimated total of 90.5 yards. DraftKings has his Over/Under set at 88.5. We’re going to take a lower alternate total here, to make St. Brown the anchor of our final parlay this season.

    St. Brown has accumulated over 79.5 yards in 11 of 16 games this season and averaged 106 yards per game in Ford Field.

    Total Parlay Odds: +605

    All odds available through DraftKings and current as of 11:15 AM 01/12/2024

    Sports Info Solutions is not an online gambling website or gambling operator. If you choose to wager on sports, we encourage you to do so responsibly. If you or someone you know has a sports betting or gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit The National Council on Problem Gambling for more information and further assistance.

  • Josh Allen is the World’s No. 1 Ranked QB

    Josh Allen is the World’s No. 1 Ranked QB

    Josh Allen is The World’s No. 1 Quarterback entering this postseason.

    It took the entire season for Allen to supplant Mahomes for the No. 1 spot in our statistical ranking system but it finally happened when, with Mahomes sitting out, Allen threw for 359 yards and 2 touchdowns and ran for 67 more yards in a division-clinching win over the Dolphins.

    Allen spent all but one week this season in the No. 2 spot, the exception being after Week 1 when he threw 3 interceptions in a loss to the Jets and dropped to No. 3 behind Justin Herbert.

    The World’s No. 1 Quarterback Ranking is based on a model devised by Bill James to evaluate The World’s No. 1 Starting Pitcher. Bill’s model was based on cumulative evaluation of individual starts over an extended time period using the metric Game Score.

    The World’s No. 1 Quarterback Ranking uses our player value stat, Total Points to make a cumulative evaluation of game performance over a three-year period. The key to our calculation is PAA, the statistical underpinning of Total Points that is centered at zero so that positive numbers are above average and negative numbers are below average.

    Success over time is key to maintaining a good ranking. Prolonged inactivity results in a ranking drop. The most recent performances carry the most weight.

    Allen led the NFL in Total Points for the first time after ranking in the Top 5 in that stat, but never atop, in each of the past 3 seasons. He also fared better than Mahomes (and everyone except Tyrod Taylor) in that stat on a per-snap basis.

    Allen finished 2023 with a career-best 88% catchable pass percentage (one of SIS’ proprietary stats) and the NFL’s lowest sack percentage (4%). 

    He had by far the best game of any quarterback in Week 5, throwing for 359 yards in a win over the Dolphins and the best game of any quarterback in a Week 12 loss to the Eagles when he threw for 339 yards and ran for 81 and 2 touchdowns.

    From Week 12 on, Allen led the NFL in Points Above Average (36.7), ahead of Dak Prescott (31.1), Jordan Love (26.1), Derek Carr (23.8) and Lamar Jackson (22.7). Mahomes was nowhere in sight. In fact, he finished with -2.1 Points Above Average, a drop that actually began in Week 13 against the Packers. Neither Mahomes nor Allen had a positive EPA when their teams went head-to-head in Week 14. Allen bounced back from that, Mahomes has not yet.

    Here’s a comparison of the Top 10 quarterbacks in these rankings entering the regular season and at the end of the regular season.

    Entering Season End Of Season
    1. Patrick Mahomes 1. Josh Allen
    2. Josh Allen 2. Patrick Mahomes
    3. Justin Herbert 3. Dak Prescott
    4. Jalen Hurts 4. Jared Goff
    5. Joe Burrow 5. Jalen Hurts
    6. Jared Goff 6. Brock Purdy
    7. Dak Prescott 7. Tua Tagovailoa
    8. Kirk Cousins 8. Lamar Jackson
    9. Tua Tagovailoa 9. Derek Carr
    10. Daniel Jones 10. Justin Herbert

    Brock Purdy and Lamar Jackson were the big gainers here, with Purdy showing that his close to 2022 was no fluke. He jumped from No. 17 entering the season to No. 6 ending it. 

    Jackson climbed from No. 19 to a season-ending No. 8, though public perception of his skills is higher than that. He’s the favorite to win the league’s MVP. Dak Prescott moved up from No. 7 to No. 3, a spot he’s held the last 8 weeks as he supplanted Jared Goff. Derek Carr, who consistently ranked in the Top 10 from 2019 to 2021 found his way back in during the final 2 weeks of the 2023 season. He sits at No. 9. 

    Herbert had dropped to No. 8 before his injury and his missing the last few weeks bumped him to the bottom of the Top 10. Joe Burrow’s injury dropped him just out of the Top 10. He’s now No. 12.  Daniel Jones’ presence in the Top 10 is a distant memory to Giants fans. His Opening Day struggles pushed him out, never to return. He currently stands at No. 30.

    Here’s the full list.

    Rk Player PAA Per 60 LastRk StartOfSeasonRk
    1 Josh Allen 6.4 2 2
    2 Patrick Mahomes 6.2 1 1
    3 Dak Prescott 5.4 3 7
    4 Jared Goff 3.9 7 6
    5 Jalen Hurts 3.9 4 4
    6 Brock Purdy 3.6 5 17
    7 Tua Tagovailoa 3.6 6 9
    8 Lamar Jackson 3.0 8 19
    9 Derek Carr 2.6 10 15
    10 Justin Herbert 2.2 9 3
    11 Matthew Stafford 1.6 11 22
    12 Joe Burrow 1.6 12 5
    13 C.J. Stroud 1.3 15 N/A
    14 Kirk Cousins 1.2 13 8
    15 Geno Smith 1.0 14 21
    16 Jordan Love 0.8 16 60
    17 Trevor Lawrence 0.1 17 18
    18 Gardner Minshew -0.2 19 38
    19 Baker Mayfield -0.2 18 81
    20 Tyrod Taylor -0.3 22 45
    21 Justin Fields -0.5 20 23
    22 Jacoby Brissett -0.6 21 12
    23 Kyler Murray -1.0 26 20
    24 Jake Browning -1.0 24 N/A
    25 Andy Dalton -1.0 23 13
    26 Deshaun Watson -1.3 25 28
    27 Aaron Rodgers -1.5 27 11
    28 Russell Wilson -1.7 29 29
    29 Tom Brady -1.8 30 16
    30 Daniel Jones -2.0 32 10
    31 Mason Rudolph -2.0 31 55
    32 Joshua Dobbs -2.0 33 64
    33 Sam Howell -2.1 28 35
    34 Aidan OConnell -2.2 45 N/A
    35 C.J. Beathard -2.3 35 48
    36 Carson Wentz -2.4 54 39
    37 Sam Darnold -2.4 38 24
    38 Ryan Tannehill -2.4 34 14
    39 Teddy Bridgewater -2.4 36 25
    40 Anthony Richardson -2.5 37 N/A
    41 Brian Hoyer -2.7 39 51
    42 Jarrett Stidham -2.8 61 40
    43 Zach Wilson -2.8 40 70
    44 Blaine Gabbert -2.8 53 49
    45 Matt Ryan -2.8 41 33
    46 Davis Webb -2.8 42 36
    47 Bryce Perkins -2.8 43 41
    48 Josh Johnson -2.8 44 37
    49 Drew Lock -2.9 46 58
    50 Joe Flacco -2.9 48 34
    51 Skylar Thompson -2.9 49 47
    52 Chad Henne -2.9 50 46
    53 Nathan Peterman -2.9 53 52
    54 Chris Streveler -3.0 56 63
    55 Ian Book -3.0 57 62
    56 Tyler Huntley -3.0 80 80
    57 Kenny Pickett -3.0 58 31
    58 Sean Mannion -3.0 59 N/A
    59 Brandon Allen -3.0 60 65
    60 Trey Lance -3.1 62 71
    61 Colt McCoy -3.1 63 68
    62 Malik Willis -3.1 65 77
    63 Mitch Trubisky -3.1 64 30
    64 Jake Fromm -3.1 66 N/A
    65 Tommy DeVito -3.1 67 N/A
    66 David Blough -3.2 68 72
    67 Sam Ehlinger -3.2 69 73
    68 Mike White -3.2 70 74
    69 Marcus Mariota -3.2 47 43
    70 Nick Mullens -3.2 84 66
    71 Cooper Rush -3.2 72 75
    72 Tyson Bagent -3.2 73 N/A
    73 Jimmy Garoppolo -3.2 71 27
    74 Anthony Brown -3.3 76 76
    75 Jaren Hall -3.3 75 N/A
    76 John Wolford -3.3 77 78
    77 Easton Stick -3.4 78 N/A
    78 Jeff Driskel -3.4 55 57
    79 Jameis Winston -3.5 79 42
    80 Kyle Allen -3.6 81 82
    81 Nick Foles -3.6 83 84
    82 Case Keenum -3.6 82 44
    83 Brett Rypien -3.6 85 59
    84 Desmond Ridder -3.6 91 67
    85 Tim Boyle -3.8 86 69
    86 Dorian Thompson-Robinson -3.8 87 N/A
    87 Taylor Heinicke -3.8 88 83
    88 Will Levis -3.9 89 N/A
    89 Trace McSorley -4.0 90 86
    90 Davis Mills -4.2 92 85
    91 Clayton Tune -4.3 93 N/A
    92 Bailey Zappe -4.3 74 32
    93 Trevor Siemian -4.7 94 56
    94 Mac Jones -4.7 95 26
    95 Bryce Young -5.5 96 N/A
    96 P.J. Walker -5.5 97 79

     

  • 2023 SIS NFL All-Rookie Teams

    2023 SIS NFL All-Rookie Teams

    Photo: Ian Johnson/Steven King, Icon Presswire

    Sports Info Solutions, a leader in the football analytics space, is pleased to announce its 4th annual NFL All-Rookie Teams. 

    The teams were selected using a combination of advanced stats and voting among members of our football operations staff, with emphasis placed upon SIS’ player value stat, Total Points. 

    As we do every year, we adjust the positional structure of this team to make sure to honor as many top performers as possible from this season.

    Here are the 2023 Sports Info Solutions award winners and All-Rookie Teams:

    Rookies of the Year

    After breaking multiple rookie passing records and putting together one of the best rookie seasons of all time by a quarterback, C.J. Stroud of the Texans takes home our Offensive Rookie of the Year.

    There were a lot of ways Defensive Rookie of the Year could have gone. There likely would have been a different winner at each quarter of the season. Ultimately, we went with arguably the biggest steal in the 2023 NFL Draft and the rookie defensive Total Points leader, Brian Branch of the Lions.

    Jake Moody of the 49ers takes home Special Teams Rookie of the Year. Moody lived up to his Draft slot as a 3rd-Round pick, helping lead a stacked roster back into the playoffs.

    For the first time, we also are announcing a Rookie Class of the Year. That award goes to the Los Angeles Rams. This was another close call, but with Puka Nacua leading the way, five Rams made our two teams, including four 1st Teamers.

    1st-Team Offense
    Position Player Team Total Points
    Quarterback C.J. Stroud Texans 103
    Running Back De’Von Achane Dolphins 26
    Running Back Bijan Robinson Falcons 24
    Wide Receiver Puka Nacua Rams 37
    Wide Receiver Zay Flowers Ravens 25
    Tight End Sam LaPorta Lions 41
    Tackle Darnell Wright Bears 31
    Tackle Anton Harrison Jaguars 22
    Guard O’Cyrus Torrence Bills 37
    Guard Steve Avila Rams 28
    Center Joe Tippmann Jets 20

     

    Quarterback: C.J. Stroud, Texans

    The Texans winning their final game in 2022 actually pushed them from picking No. 1 to No. 2. However, it doesn’t look like it’s going to haunt them. C.J. Stroud was 1 of only 10 passers to go over 4,000 yards in 2023. His 103 Total Points led all rookies and ranked 10th among QBs, helping lead the Texans back to the playoffs for the first time since 2019.

    Running Back: De’Von Achane, Dolphins

    In just 11 games, De’Von Achane ran for 800 yards on nearly eight yards per carry. His speed and playmaking ability fit in perfectly with the Dolphins offense. Being limited due to injury, he made his snaps count, creating the 2nd-most rushing Total Points per snap among RBs and making defenders miss 18.4% of the time, which was good for 7th.

    Running Back: Bijan Robinson, Falcons

    While we can all speculate if he was used properly the entirety of the season in Atlanta, Bijan Robinson didn’t disappoint when he was called upon. He led all rookie RBs with 976 rushing yards and added 487 yards through the air, which was 4th-most among all RBs. Additionally, he ranked 5th with a 19.2% Broken + Missed Tackle rate as a rusher among all RBs who had at least 100 carries.

    Wide Receiver: Puka Nacua, Rams

    No question the biggest steal of the Draft on the offensive side of the ball was 5th-round pick Puka Nacua. If not for a great year by Stroud, Nacua is by far the runaway Offensive Rookie of the Year. Nacua only managed to break the rookie records for receptions (105) and receiving yards (1,486) in a season. His 2.7 Yards per Route Run also ranked him 9th among all WRs with at least 75 targets.

    Wide Receiver: Zay Flowers, Ravens

    Another big-play receiver, Zay Flowers improved the Ravens receiving corps exponentially in 2023. While he caught for over 850 yards and 6 TDs, his most impressive stat is a 37.7% Broken + Missed Tackle rate, which ranked just behind Deebo Samuel among all WRs with at least 50 targets. 

    Tight End: Sam LaPorta, Lions

    The Lions’ 2023 2nd-round picks proved to be huge hits, and Sam LaPorta was one of them. LaPorta broke the rookie TE record for receptions in a season with 86. He also caught 10 TDs, which were four more than the 2nd-most by a tight end.. He and Jahmyr Gibbs teamed up to be the only pair of rookie teammates to each produce at least 10 TDs in the same season. Elsewhere, his 12 Total Points as a run blocker ranked 3rd among all TEs and his 2.0 Yards per Route Run tied-5th among TEs with at least 30 targets.

    Tackle: Darnell Wright, Bears

    Darnell Wright started every game and logged over 1,000 snaps for the Bears this season. While he did have 31 Blown Blocks in the pass game, which comes with the territory of a young NFL tackle, he notched a miniscule 0.9% Blown Block rate on run plays, tied for 5th-best among all tackles with at least 500 snaps.

    Tackle: Anton Harrison, Jaguars

    Anton Harrison took his lumps as an NFL rookie tackle, committing 40 Blown Blocks, but he made huge strides as the season went on. He started every game for Jacksonville and played over 1,000 snaps, gaining valuable experience. Plus, his 22 Total Points were just behind Wright for most among all rookie tackles.

    Guard: O’Cyrus Torrence, Bills

    O’Cyrus Torrence’s 37 Total Points were tops among all rookie offensive linemen and 6th-best among all NFL guards. Additionally, his 19.3 Total Points as a run blocker ranked 3rd among guards with at least 500 snaps and his 5.6 Points Above Average in the run game ranked 4th.

    Guard: Steve Avila, Rams

    While Steve Avila did commit 33 Blown Blocks in 2023, he didn’t commit a hold in 448 run snaps and only one in 640 pass snaps. Also, his 28 Total Points ranked just behind Torrence among rookie guards and was 3rd among all rookie linemen.

    Center: Joe Tippmann, Jets

    Joe Tippmann proved his worth across multiple positions this season. After starting off playing some guard, Tippmann switched to center when injuries became an issue across the Jets OL. Across 14 starts in 16 games, he posted just a 2.5% Blown Block rate and only 1.9% in the run game, good for top 10 among centers with at least 500 snaps.

    1st-Team Defense
    Position Player Team Total Points
    Interior Defensive Lineman Jalen Carter Eagles 21
    Interior Defensive Lineman Kobie Turner Rams 19
    Edge Will Anderson Jr. Texans 29
    Edge Byron Young Rams 24
    Linebacker Jack Campbell Lions 17
    Linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. Vikings 16
    Cornerback Devon Witherspoon Seahawks 48
    Cornerback Joey Porter Jr. Steelers 42
    Defensive Back Deonte Banks Giants 39
    Safety Brian Branch Lions 58
    Safety Christian Izien Buccaneers 33

    Interior Defensive Lineman: Jalen Carter, Eagles

    If the Defensive Rookie of the Year was crowned at the midpoint of the season, there’s a great chance Jalen Carter wins the award. Carter was dominant as an interior pass rusher. He compiled 6 sacks and 39 pressures in 2023 with an 11% Pressure rate that was good for top 15 among all defensive tackles.

    Interior Defensive Lineman: Kobie Turner, Rams

    Kobie Turner blew up in the second half of the season and made a case of his own for DROY. Since Week 9, Turner’s 8 sacks led all NFL defensive tackles and his 32 pressures ranked 5th. Additionally, his 3.4% Sack rate was Top 5 and his 13.1% Pressure rate ranked 8th.

    Edge: Will Anderson Jr., Texans

    Will Anderson Jr., the top player on the SIS 101 Big Board ahead of the NFL Draft, led all rookie front-seven defenders with 29 Total Points. Anderson’s 56 pressures were good for Top 20 among all DE/LBs and went along with a 16.1% Pressure rate.

    Edge: Byron Young, Rams

    An underrated Edge going into the Draft, Byron Young’s athleticism popped off the tape and translated incredibly well to the NFL with a strong 2023 season. Young led all DE/LB rookies with 8 sacks and was 2nd behind Anderson with 47 pressures. His 24 Total Points also ranked just behind Anderson among all rookie front-seven defenders.

    Linebacker: Jack Campbell, Lions

    A heavily criticized pick during the Draft, Campbell has been a large part of the Lions LB corps, especially over the last half of the season. With 17 Total Points overall, he’s been able to contribute against both the run and pass, gaining nearly 8 Total Points against the pass and 9.5 versus the run. Campbell played nearly 60% of the defensive snaps his rookie season, and also contributed on over one-third of special teams snaps.

    Linebacker: Ivan Pace Jr., Vikings

    Arguably the top undrafted rookie of 2023, Ivan Pace Jr. played a vital role for Minnesota’s defense the entire season. The top-ranked MLB by SIS heading into the Draft, Pace played over half of the defensive snaps and special teams snaps his rookie season. Eight of his 16 Total Points came in coverage. A rookie season with 100 tackles, 2.5 sacks, an interception, and a forced fumble is a great season to build off of, especially for someone who wasn’t even drafted.

    Cornerback: Devon Witherspoon, Seahawks

    Devon Witherspoon teamed up with sophomore CB Riq Woolen to provide a strong 1-2 tandem in Seattle in 2023. Witherspoon’s 48 Total Points led all rookie CBs and was 2nd-most among all rookie defenders. His 0.6 Yards per Cover Snap tied him for 9th-best among all CBs with at least 25 targets, as did his 12 passes defensed. However, his presence wasn’t just felt in the pass game. His 13 Total Points in run defense was 14th-best at the position.

    Cornerback: Joey Porter Jr., Steelers

    The son of a former Steeler-great, Joey Porter Jr. picked up right where his dad left off in Pittsburgh. Targeted 52 times in 17 games, Porter had 6 pass break ups, an interception, and didn’t allow a touchdown all season. His 38.8 Passer Rating Against and 0.5 Yards per Cover Snap rank 6th and tied-6th, respectively, among all CBs with at least 25 targets. If he can cut down on the penalties, he’ll be a top-end CB in the league at this pace.

    Defensive Back: Deonte Banks, Giants

    Deonte Banks was tested during his rookie season in 2023. He was targeted 78 times, which was 11th-most in the league. However, teams only completed half their passes thrown his way. His 39 Total Points was 3rd-best among rookie CBs and his 14 Total Points against the run was best among rookie CBs and 11th-best among all CBs.

    Safety: Brian Branch, Lions

    Our DROY, Brian Branch played a huge part in the defensive turnaround in Detroit. Starting his career off with a pick-six to help beat the reigning Super Bowl champs in Kansas City on opening night, Branch’s 58 Total Points led all rookie defenders. He also led all qualifying safeties in Total Points Per Play.. Due to his role that is mainly in the slot, Branch saw the most targets among all listed safeties with 50 and had the most pass breakups with 10.

    Safety: Christian Izien, Buccaneers

    Christian Izien is a small, but feisty safety out of Rutgers that reminded us of the defensive version of Isiah Pacheco. Izien secured the 2nd-most Total Points among rookie safeties with 33. Additionally, his 12.3 Total Points Above Average in coverage ranked 11th among all safeties with at least 10 targets, and he ranked 16th in Total Points Per Play.

    1st-Team Specialists
    Position Player Team Total Points
    Kicker Jake Moody 49ers 7
    Punter Bryce Baringer Patriots 5
    Returner Marvin Mims Jr. Broncos N/A

    Kicker: Jake Moody, 49ers

    Jake Moody had a strong season for San Francisco. While a 3rd-round pick is quite high for a special teamer, he proved it was a worthy selection. He finished the season 21-of-25 on field goals, hitting twice from beyond 50 yards and went 60-of-61 on extra points, making the most extra points of any kicker in the league.

    Punter: Bryce Baringer, Patriots

    While Bryce Baringer doesn’t have the elite leg of some of the other punters in the league, his finesse is right up there with the best. Across 98 punts, 2nd-most in the league, he pinned opposing teams inside the 20-yard-line 37 times (tops in the NFL)  and inside the 10-yard-line 7 times.

    Returner: Marvin Mims Jr., Broncos

    Although Marvin Mims Jr. didn’t make the big-time contribution on offense most were expecting in Denver, he did contribute admirably in the return game. His 400 kick return yards were 7th-most in the NFL, including taking one back 99 yards for a touchdown. Additionally, he returned 21 punts with a 15.1 average, ranking 2nd among those with at least 10 punt returns.

    —

    In all, three offensive 1st Teamers and five defensive 1st Teamers received a 6.7 final grade or higher from us, as seen on our NFL Draft site, suggesting those players will at least be high-end three-down starters beginning their second season. Additionally, all eleven offensive players and nine defenders received a grade of at least 6.4. We’ll see if they begin 2024 the way they played this season to warrant those final grades, but we like their chances.

    Below, you can find our All-Rookie 2nd Teams which include big names like Jahmyr Gibbs, Rashee Rice, Tuli Tuipulotu, and Tyrique Stevenson.

    2nd-Team Offense
    Position Player Team Total Points
    Quarterback Aidan O’Connell Raiders 34
    Running Back Keaton Mitchell Ravens 21
    Running Back Jahmyr Gibbs Lions 10
    Wide Receiver Rashee Rice Chiefs 23
    Wide Receiver Jayden Reed Packers 21
    Tight End Michael Mayer Raiders 23
    Tackle Paris Johnson Jr. Cardinals 22
    Tackle Broderick Jones Steelers 16
    Guard Matthew Bergeron Falcons 22
    Guard Cody Mauch Buccaneers 21
    Center John Michael Schmitz Giants 14

     

    2nd-Team Defense
    Position Player Team Total Points
    Interior Defensive Lineman Bryan Bresee Saints 14
    Interior Defensive Lineman Calijah Kancey Buccaneers 11
    Edge Tuli Tuipulotu Chargers 19
    Edge YaYa Diaby Buccaneers 14
    Linebacker Nick Herbig Steelers 13
    Linebacker Marte Mapu Patriots 6
    Cornerback Tyrique Stevenson Bears 38
    Cornerback Clark Phillips III Falcons 28
    Defensive Back Jakorian Bennett Raiders 18
    Safety Jordan Battle Bengals 30
    Safety Sydney Brown Eagles 23

     

    2nd-Team Specialists
    Position Player Team Total Points
    Kicker Anders Carlson Packers 5
    Punter Ethan Evans Rams 7
    Returner Derius Davis Chargers N/A

    We want to highlight some of the close calls and honorable mentions who didn’t quite make the cut.

    Some players on offense who just missed out include Tyjae Spears (RB), Tank Dell (WR), Jordan Addison (WR), Tucker Kraft (TE), Dawand Jones (OT), Peter Skoronski (OG), and Sidy Sow (OG). Dell had a good chance to make it onto one of the teams had he not gotten injured in early December. While Addison did score 10 touchdowns, he didn’t gain much value with his receptions.

    Some players on defense who just missed the cut include Karl Brooks (IDL), Keion White (EDGE), and Ji’Ayir Brown (S). It’s also worth mentioning Christian Gonzalez (CB) accumulated 15 Total Points in just four games before going on season-ending IR.

    On special teams, Xavier Gipson just missed out on the 2nd Team Returner selection. While he’s not eligible by NFL’s standards to be a rookie, Brandon Aubrey deserves a shout out here. A former college soccer player turned USFL kicker, Aubrey went 36-of-38 in his first NFL season with his only two misses coming in Week 18.

    While there was some clear delineation between both teams, there were a couple close calls between the two. There was a heavy conversation for the second 1st-Team Edge spot between Byron Young and Tuli Tuipulotu. Also, Bryce Baringer and Ethan Evans were neck-and-neck, but Baringer won out for the top Punter spot.

    As mentioned earlier, each year we change some of the positions to account for the depth at certain areas specific to this draft class. This year, there was a fair amount of talent across the board, so we didn’t have to adjust much. We were able to go back to two DTs, which we veered away from last year. Additionally, with the secondary as packed as it was, we went with the 5th DB position again instead of a normal hybrid position.

    You can check out last year’s article here to see how the positional structure changed. Again, the entire idea of these teams is to highlight the best players across the league, and we feel we did that.

    With all but just six teams represented among these selections, this once again signifies that plenty of talent is being dispersed throughout the league. Over our four years of selecting these teams, the Detroit Lions have the most selections with 13, one more than the Pittsburgh Steelers. On the flipside, the Tennessee Titans have only had 2, while the Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills, and Washington Commanders have just 3.

    Go check out the SIS NFL Draft site to see what we said about these players coming into their NFL careers, and stay tuned to see what we’ll have to say about the next generation of NFL stars as they head into the 2024 NFL Draft.

  • Week 18 Parlay Picks: Josh Allen, George Pickens, Falcons/Saints

    Week 18 Parlay Picks: Josh Allen, George Pickens, Falcons/Saints

    Photo: Oliver McKenna/Icon Sportswire

    For the last couple of weeks of the NFL season, I’m trying something different with our analytic data by testing how useful it is on parlays. We’ll use Total Points, our player projections, and other information at our disposal to make picks.

    Each of my parlays will have an underdog (+120 to +245) or superdog (+250), with the remaining 2 legs consisting of a combination of even money (-115 to +115), favorite (-120 to -245), and heavy favorite (-250) lines. I’ll also incorporate teasers to achieve a degree of balance where possible.

    In Week 16, I hit with a Breece Hall, Cleveland Browns, Jake Browning combo. Last week was a rough one for the parlay, but you can’t win them all. We hit with Dak Prescott’s passing yardage total but missed on Kyren Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs rushing yardage totals. Williams finished 8 yards shy. Gibbs would have eclipsed his total if not for a penalty that negated a 35-yard run.

    Regardless, we’re 1-for-2 so far, so we’re off to a good start. Here are the 3 options that our models like this week as we hope our 3rd try is a charm.

    Underdog – Josh Allen Alternate Passing Yards, 275+ @ +185

    Our model projects Allen to throw for 271.2 yards on 37.4 attempts in Miami on Sunday night, both of which are the 2nd highest estimates this week. On the year, Allen’s 122.8 Passing Points Earned ranks 2nd in the NFL.

    Allen completed 84% of his passes while throwing for 320 yards against the Dolphins in Week 4. Miami will be without one of its top pass rushers this time around, as Bradley Chubb was lost last week to a season-ending knee injury. Chubb has the 20th-most Points Saved on pass rushes (23.5) of any defender league wide.

    Finding an underdog that gives me confidence this week was like finding a needle in a haystack. I would have preferred a different George Pickens yardage prop here (more on him below) with an even-money Josh Allen total below, but no other Pickens lines are currently available on DraftKings. 

    Even – George Pickens Receiving Yards, Over 50.5 @ -115

    Pickens has compiled 326 yards in the last 2 games as the favorite target with Mason Rudolph at the helm, reeling in 4-of-5 deep balls (passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield) aimed his way. 

    Our projection model has Pickens estimated to accrue 83 yards against the Ravens, good enough for the 2nd highest estimated total in the league, only 1.4 behind CeeDee Lamb. The 32.5 yard gap between his line and projection is also the largest such gap available on DraftKings for Week 18 (we specifically looked for an over here).

    And a heads-up that DraftKings published yardage props for Pickens after our article came out. An 80-yard prop is at +340 as of noon ET on Friday.

    Speaking of Rudolph, over the last 2 weeks he’s totaled the 3rd-most EPA. His projection of 286.2 yards is also our model’s highest estimated total for the week.

    With the Steelers only recently finding offensive success and fighting for their playoff lives, I expect them to rely heavily on the tools that have worked for them as of late.

    Heavy Favorite – Falcons @ Saints Alternate Total, Under 49.5 @ -302

    These teams combined for 39 points in a 25-14 Falcons victory in New Orleans. Our model indicates the price at Under 49.5 points should be -595, a gap that I expect to close significantly between now and kickoff on Sunday. 

    My main reasoning for this pick is that these are the teams with the 2 best pass coverage units in the NFL in terms of Total Points Per Play (as noted in our weekly look at matchups and mismatches). A high-scoring shootout is not likely.

    The current O/U for this matchup on DraftKings is set at 42, and I’ve teased this up to 49.5 to be my confidence pick this week. 

    Total Parlay Odds: 6.09-to-1

    All odds available through DraftKings and current as of 11:42 AM 1/4/2024

    Sports Info Solutions is not an online gambling website or gambling operator. If you choose to wager on sports, we encourage you to do so responsibly. If you or someone you know has a sports betting or gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit The National Council on Problem Gambling for more information and further assistance.