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  • Examining the Relationship Between Pitch Delivery Type and Stolen Bases

    Examining the Relationship Between Pitch Delivery Type and Stolen Bases

    With a few weeks remaining in the season, there have been more than 3,000 stolen bases for the first time since 2012. Both the AL and NL stolen base leaders have over 60 apiece for the first time since Michael Bourn and Jacoby Ellsbury did it in 2009, and Trea Turner is a perfect 28-for-28 on stolen base attempts.

    Obviously, MLB’s new rules changes are the largest contributing factor to this meteoric rise, but I became curious about what else might influence the stolen base rate. That’s when I started digging into the pitch delivery type.

    Pitch delivery type is one of the many things we track at SIS. We categorize deliveries into three different types:

    Full-Leg Kick

    In-Between

    Slide Step

    We found one with a side angle that makes it more obvious.

    Now, I understand that it’s not exactly rocket science to know that the more time a pitcher takes to deliver the pitch, the better the runner’s chances are of stealing the base. The goal here is simply to apply data to help better understand the disparities between delivery types, as they relate to stolen bases.

    I began by collecting some data from this season. The following tables show the number of steal attempts per each delivery type along with the success rate of the baserunners. I separated the data into two different tables: steal attempts into 2nd and steal attempts into 3rd.

    A) Attempting to Steal 2nd (2023)

    Delivery Type # of Attempts SB Success Rate
    Full Leg Kick 2,095 84%
    In-Between 653 77%
    Slide Step 102 79%

    B) Attempting to Steal 3rd (2023)

    Delivery Type # of Attempts SB Success Rate
    Full Leg Kick 261 89%
    In-Between 51 84%
    Slide Step 6 100%

    Looking at the previous two tables, there is one fatal flaw that jumps out immediately. Sample size. There simply isn’t a large enough sample size from 2023 to draw any sort of conclusion about a relationship between stolen bases and delivery types.

    So I started doing a little more digging and collected data from the previous six seasons, ranging from 2017 to 2022. I intentionally kept data from 2023 out of this sample because of the impact that the rule changes might have on it.

    C) Attempting to Steal 2nd (2017 – 2022)

    Delivery Type # of Attempts SB Success Rate
    Full Leg Kick 9,249 79%
    In-Between 3,346 71%
    Slide Step 660 68%

     

    D) Attempting to Steal 3rd (2017 – 2022)

    Delivery Type # of Attempts SB Success Rate
    Full Leg Kick 1,121 82%
    In-Between 211 77%
    Slide Step 55 75%

     Now that’s a sample size I can work with.

    As expected, runners are more successful on delivery types that take more time. I found it interesting though that runners have a higher success rate stealing 3rd as opposed to 2nd. Stealing 3rd is inherently much more difficult than its counterpart, so why is this?

    This is likely due to the fact that attempting to steal 3rd is a task that’s generally reserved for only the fastest players on the team. Runners must be more certain of success before trying to steal 3rd.

    Sample size is also worth noting here, particularly when looking at attempts into 3rd on slide steps. The random variability in 55 attempts could possibly be skewing this number but it’s a significant step up from the 6 attempts in 2023 alone.

    When initially looking at the tables above, I noticed how the number of attempts decrease as you go down from full leg kick to slide step. Ultimately, the goal is to prevent the runner from advancing, so preventing him from even trying is a success in its own right. The problem is, the tables above lack a crucial piece of data.

    In order to know how effective a delivery type truly is at preventing runners from trying, you must know the total number of times pitchers used each delivery type. I divided the total number of steal attempts per delivery type by the total number of times each type was used with runners on. As you can see below, not all delivery types are used the same amount.

     E) 2017-2022 

    Delivery Type Total # of Steal Attempts # of Times Used

    (Runners On)

    		 Effectiveness
    Full Leg Kick 10,370 525,310 2%
    In-Between 3,557 182,118 2%
    Slide Step 715 56,470 1.3%

    As the table reads, runners are just as likely to take off on an in-between delivery as they are on a full leg kick – 2% of the time. This is a little surprising because runners are thrown out significantly more on in-between deliveries than full leg kicks. Referring back to tables C and D, runners are thrown out 8% more of the time attempting to take 2nd and 5% more attempting to take 3rd. Perhaps in-between deliveries could be the sweet spot for baiting the runner into going then having the catcher throw him out.

    Less surprising is the 0.7% drop when a slide step is used. The purpose of a slide step is to speed up the delivery and it’s not exactly hard for runners to notice.

    I want to acknowledge that expecting every pitcher to start changing their delivery type is ridiculous. Pitchers use leg kicks for many different reasons including rhythm, timing, and getting their momentum towards the plate. Some pitchers will be able to adapt, many will not. Ultimately, a pitcher’s main focus should be pitch quality. But the information above is worth knowing nonetheless so that we can better understand what we’re seeing.

  • Defensive Excellence Q&A: Tucker Frawley, Minnesota Twins Infield and Catching Coordinator

    Defensive Excellence Q&A: Tucker Frawley, Minnesota Twins Infield and Catching Coordinator

    This is the 12th interview in our series of articles on coaching defensive excellence the last two years, likely our final one for 2023.

    This season, we’ve talked to people from a few different nationalities, three female coaches working with male and female baseball players, and the head of a baseball academy focused specifically on defense. You can find the full series here.

    This week we talk to Tucker Frawley. He’s the Twins minor league infield and catching coordinator. Tucker played one year in the pros and then went into coaching. Prior to joining the Twins he was the associate head coach at Yale. One of Tucker’s focal points, which you’ll read about here, is integrating data into coaching.

    This interview has been edited for clarity and length. 

    Mark: What does defensive excellence mean to you and how do you go about teaching it?  

    Tucker: Defensive excellence is constantly trying to perform at a level that is an elite clip relative to our peers and I think that over the course of the last several years, that bar may have changed.

    What my offseason job is to do a whole bunch of research to ensure that we have MLB-level benchmarks that our minor leaguers are in tune with for every part of their game. I want them to know when they’re within an MLB spectrum in any of the tools or KPIs (Key Performance Indicators) that we want them to highlight and hone in their training.

    I want them to know when they’re at an MLB average in each of those areas. And we ultimately want to get to a point where we can get them to an elite level in each of those areas. Now, obviously getting to an elite level in all of them is a tall order, but they’re still just good north stars of sorts for us to try to follow and pursue. 

    At the very least, I want to give them consistent knowledge of results from month to month and make sure that they understand just how they’re performing relative to the average MLB player and the MLB spectrum as a whole.

    Mark: Can you explain this using a specific example? 

    Tucker: The best example I can give is arm strength.

    I use the term KPI. Another word for it, is just the tools that we want to own in each of our players. So, let’s use arm strength as an example for a tool that we’ve highlighted as a high-level KPI for an infielder, or a really important tool for an infielder.

    A really simple way of going about this is going on Baseball Savant or any of the other great resources out there and getting a sense of what that MLB spectrum is. And I think we highlighted for shortstops that the best arm velo was around 98 miles an hour, Oneil Cruz. But on the low end of that spectrum is a guy like Dansby Swanson, who gets it up as high as 83 or 84. And both those guys are phenomenal defenders, very good shortstops. It’s a healthy thing to remind guys, if we have guys that are outside of that range, let’s say they’re only able to get their arm strength up to 81 or 82, they now have a good sense of just how much more improvement they need to be considered MLB caliber.

    I think the average MLB arm strength, the average top velo that shortstops show is about 86 miles an hour, and that’s one that we hold every single one of our shortstops to. That’s again just a KPI, a tool of sorts that we’re constantly trying to gauge our monthly performance with, both in practice and in games. 

    Mark: Ok, so how do you go about teaching technique?

    Tucker: Technique-wise, I want to make sure that everything, every technique that we are stressing, it still comes back to something objective. The best way for me to explain this is, there’s a lot of infielders out there, both at the college and pro level, that aesthetically look phenomenal.

    They are smooth, they have great arm actions, they’re what we prototypically want to see out of an infielder. But when you actually pay attention to how often they catch it, and how accurately they throw it, they are the furthest thing from an efficient infielder. 

    From an infield standpoint, I want us to chase aesthetics less, and efficiency more, and I often equate things to hitting, where there are just some hitters who have a knack of consistently finding the barrel and hitting the ball hard, and when they’re able to do that, there’s usually some freedom that the hitting coaches give them.

    I think as an infield coach, we need to just hit pause on a lot of the aesthetics that we’ve been accustomed to wanting to see out of our infielders. And if it comes back to something objective, that we know is ultimately going to help them make more plays and collect more outs, then I am all for that.

    To use a catcher analogy and not just focus solely on infield: Blocking is a really good topic where we have an emotional attachment to a ball that hits the dirt and squares us up in the chest and the catcher recovers and keeps the guy from moving on to the next base. When in reality, if we just pick that clean or our depth is good enough where we don’t even have to pick it, it’s in a sense just as efficient as the ball that we were accustomed to calling an actual block.

    Mark: Can you give an example of what it’s like to teach someone who’s a visual learner versus someone who is not? Maybe walk us through the different learners you deal with and how you talk to them.

    Tucker: All of us have learned some things through conversation. We’ve learned other things through visual aids. And what I try to do is equip myself with that whole gamut, that whole buffet of things and what ultimately sticks is going to be completely unique to the topic at hand and what clicks for that player.

    So for some guys, showing them an actual visual of what it means to throw from different slots and the role that posture plays in impacting that slot and the role that their feet play in impacting that posture. Sometimes seeing video is a great thing. Sometimes using still shots is a great thing.

    Sometimes it’s getting them up on their feet and putting their bodies in that posture with our hands and helping them hold positions and feel exactly what we want them to feel like. We’ve done it all with guys, some of which has clicked, and if it hasn’t, we’ve moved on to the next one and we’ve tried the next-best thing.

    But even just using that as an example, throwing from different slots and when to use it. We’ve tried to show our guys in a number of different teaching points and teaching aids to hopefully make sure that we’re not leaving anyone behind who may be in the minority in terms of how they’re learning it.

    Mark: What’s the hardest thing to teach a pro at the various positions that you’re teaching them? 

    Tucker: The drop step is the hardest thing. When we basically look at balls within 10 feet of infielders and the ones that they actually kick that are still really high probability, they’re the rockets that hit the infield dirt first. 

    So that low line drive, if their feet don’t gain any or lose any ground, it eats them up. Now, they may have good enough hands where they’re able to stab at it and get it.

    The guys that are able to work backwards, lose ground, and actually create an easier-to-handle hop, those are the ones that make it look easy. But, when we bring that over to the practice setting, it is the hardest thing to replicate. 

    You’re talking about balls that are rockets, so if you’re using real balls you’re putting them in harm’s way.

    Second, if they know it’s coming, it is so much different than developing the reaction that comes with that play. So, we’ve tried everything under the moon but I have not felt like we’ve really nailed any drill series that really hones that ability to read a low line drive, give ground, and make it basically a long hop that’s a lot easier to handle than when your feet just kind of stay put.

    That is far and away something that applies to every one of the four infield positions that I have not been able to crack the code on. 

    Mark: What’s the most fun thing to teach? 

    Tucker: The most fun thing to teach is actually showing these guys what separates the below-average infielder from the average and the above-average from the average.

    We use a football analogy a lot where it’s like we’re an NFL kicker offered 30 kicks a day, about the same number of ground balls that we usually get as infielders. And we asked them how they would kick, and some guys will reference the fact that the most frequent kick is an extra point after a touchdown.

    But when you actually look at field goal kickers, even the worst field goal kicker in the NFL misses that one once a season. It’s basically automatic for guys in the NFL, and it’s the 40-yarders, the 50s, the 60s, the kicking it from the hash marks, or in inclement weather, that ultimately separates the best from the average.

    And, for us as infielders, it’s teaching them that the more rangy plays, the ones that force them to field with one hand, or their backhand, or when they’re pressed for time, those are the separator plays.

    On the pro side, it’s really difficult to really squeeze that into a weekly work week, where these guys are forced to play every night. But it forces us to be creative, it forces us to be really cognizant of our workloads, and when we’re squeezing those types of drill packages in, and how we do it. But once that lightbulb goes off in their head that the routine ground ball isn’t going to be the thing that separates me from my peers in the big leagues, then it’s fun to talk about how we’re going to attack things with them from there. 

    Mark: Is there a player for whom you could point to and say, wow, that guy did a really good job of learning how to play defense. 

    Tucker: Edouard Julien. A guy that, early on in his career, it was a huge question mark where his defense would ultimately lead him.

    Anyone who watches him, I don’t think anyone would consider him for a Gold Glove right now. But, if you knew where Eddie was three or four years ago, even if you knew where he was at the beginning of this season, he’s a rising star because of his work ethic.

    He’s taken all the talking points that we’ve had relative to those separator areas that we mentioned earlier, and the drills and what they mean. He has been as much of a student as anyone we’ve had. He’s the poster child for what a really good, purposeful training plan can do for you. And I really hope that people see that even years down the road, because again, he’s a rising star. He’s getting better every single month, let alone every single year.

    And he’s the first guy that comes to mind 

    Mark: If you were gonna give a blanket piece of advice to adults coaching kids with regards to defense and I’m talking kids of Little League age, what would you say?

    Tucker: Yeah, my son’s actually 10, so that’s a great question.

    I have a very healthy viewpoint right now because I have that 10-year-old, I’m able to see big leaguers, and everything in between. For my son, my No. 1 goal with him, no matter whether I’m the one coaching him, or he’s playing a game for someone else is making sure he’s having enough fun to want to be back out there the next time.

    In terms of the actual technique it’s pretty darn similar to the way I practice with our minor leaguers. Now, the speed at which we go, I try to match it up with the speed of his game. But the tools that we’re asking him to use in terms of dealing with two hands, and one hand, backhand and being able to throw on the run and range to his left and right, it’s all the same stuff. It’s just done on a smaller field with balls that aren’t hit as hard, and with a lot more encouragement and pleasantries along the way.

    He’s a catcher right now and I want him to be able to receive from all stances and understand how important blocking is in addition to receiving and throwing, since he’s at a level where those things mean that much more. 

    And then as he grows up, hopefully that skill set he learns to apply it in a way that is a little bit more in line with whatever level he’s playing and whatever coach he’s playing for. But, it’s super similar. So the biggest advice is just make sure that the speed of the game is matched up with what those kids see at whatever level they find themselves in.

  • Stat of the Week: The Leading Minor League Shortstop Defenders

    Stat of the Week: The Leading Minor League Shortstop Defenders

    Minor league shortstop prospects Noah Miller (Twins) and Nasim Nuñez (Marlins) are as good at conversing about defense as they are at playing it. And they are both very good defensive players.

    The two of them were guests on the Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast this week. Miller is the runaway minor league leader in Defensive Runs Saved by a shortstop with 16.

    The 16 Runs Saved are impressive both because he’s still in High-A with the Cedar Rapids Kernels and because he’s being judged by major league standards. In other words, a ball that’s a 60% out probability for Brandon Crawford (one of Miller’s favorites to watch) is a 60% out probability for Miller.

    Miller seems to have very good self-awareness for someone his age.

    “I’ve just always been very comfortable going to my left,” Miller said, which matches what our metrics show about his skills. “Keeping my eyes behind my glove. That’s the big thing for me. Being able to read the hop is easier going to your left than to your right.”

    He also knows what he wants to do to improve his game.

    “The biggest things are probably just increasing arm strength and increasing foot speed to increase my range and the angles that you can take,” Miller said.

    Said Twins minor league infield and catching coordinator Tucker Frawley: “I said this to Noah when I saw him last week. He’s the bar to which I hold our other infielders. He seems to be consistently raising the bar. He’s been nothing short of amazing for us.”

    Amazing is a good way to describe what Nuñez does in the field too, though in a little bit of a different way. Our VP of Baseball, former major leaguer Bobby Scales, described him as an “artisan” in the field. Judge for yourself.

    Nuñez ranks tied for 3rd among minor league shortstops with 7 Runs Saved. He talked about both situational awareness and self-awareness and knows what he needs working on too.

    “Slowing down the game,” Nuñez said. “Understanding my body, understanding how athletic I am, and some plays, I don’t have to be 110% or 100%. Some plays I can understand the runners (on base and at the plate), understand my arms, understand the direction of the ball, and go according to that.”

    Both Miller and Nuñez have other aspects of their game to work on. Miller is hitting .223. Nuñez is at .225 but also has 47 stolen bases, which should increase his value to the Marlins.

    “Their gloves are going to give them opportunity in big leagues,” Scales said. “What’s going to be the separator for both of them is: Are they going to be able to hit enough to stay? They’re going to play in the big leagues because they can defend and run prevention is a massive piece of what run offices use now to construct their roster.”

    Check out what they all had to say on the current episode of the Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast.

    Most Defensive Runs Saved – Minor League Shortstops

    Name Team (Level) Defensive Runs Saved
    Noah Miller Twins (High-A) 16
    Christian Koss Red Sox (Triple-A) 8
    Nasim Nuñez Marlins (Double-A) 7
    Gregory Barrios Brewers (Single-A) 7
    Ambioris Tavarez Braves (Single-A) 6
  • Stat of the Week: Defense, The NL Cy Young Race, and Blake Snell

    Stat of the Week: Defense, The NL Cy Young Race, and Blake Snell

    On May 19, Padres starter Blake Snell got clubbed for 6 runs in 4 innings in a loss to the Red Sox. His season ERA at that point was 5.40.

    But from that point forward, Snell has had the most remarkable run of pitching in 2023. He has a 1.31 ERA in his last 19 starts with nearly 2.5 times more strikeouts (153) as hits allowed (62) in that span.

    Snell’s season ERA is currently an MLB-best 2.50. This is remarkable given that he’s walked 89 batters, the most in the NL. That’s more than 5 walks per 9 innings, a rate that ranks 4th-highest in MLB.

    Snell’s ERA is an outlier among those with the most walks per 9 innings. His walks per 9 are an outlier among the pitchers with the lowest ERAs in MLB.

    So with all these crazy numbers floating around, where does Snell fit within the context of the NL Cy Young race, compared to pitchers like Justin Steele of the Cubs and Spencer Strider of the Braves?

    A Twitter follower presumably looking to answer that or a similar question asked us how much defensive support the different Cy Young contenders have received this season.

    The easiest way for us to answer that is to look at Defensive Runs Saved on batted balls by a team in support of a pitcher, something we did earlier this season in this article.

    Pitchers Receiving Most Defensive Support From Teams – 2023

    Name Team DRS
    José Berrios Blue Jays 16
    Blake Snell Padres 15
    Corbin Burnes Brewers 13
    Yusei Kikuchi Blue Jays 13
    Framber Valdez Astros 12
    Dean Kremer Orioles 12

    Snell and the Padres show up prominently on the leaderboard. That makes sense. In order to have an ERA that good with the walk rate that high, a pitcher is going to need help in some form.

    And now let’s look at this using the Top 5 NL Cy Young candidates as established by Tom Tango’s Cy Young Predictor tool (now available on FanGraphs).

    Pitchers Receiving Most Defensive Support From Teams

    Cy Young Candidates- 2023

    Name Team DRS
    Blake Snell Padres 15
    Zac Gallen Diamondbacks 5
    Justin Steele Cubs 2
    Spencer Strider Braves 1
    Zack Wheeler Phillies -1

    Admittedly if we considered other areas of defense, such as keeping runners from stealing, the Defensive Runs Saved numbers behind Snell would go down a bit. Snell has allowed 20 stolen bases in 21 attempts. But he would still be well ahead of any other serious Cy Young contender. The work of the Padres defense has been an important part in Snell’s ERA being the best in the game.

    So if Snell does win the Cy Young Award, we’d recommend him giving some complimentary gifts to the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim, Xander Bogaerts, and others. As good as Snell’s been on the mound, they’ve been just as good for him.

  • Defensive Excellence Q&A: Beth Woerner (Lebanon Valley College Assistant Coach)

    Defensive Excellence Q&A: Beth Woerner (Lebanon Valley College Assistant Coach)

    Beth Woerner began coaching at Lebanon Valley College, an NCAA Division III school in Pennsylvania in August of 2021. She is believed to be the only full-time female baseball assistant coach in the NCAAs.

    As you’ll read in our interview below, Beth’s comes to baseball with a fresh perspective, having not played it or softball in college. And a lot of her knowledge is self-taught. In her previous stop at University of Charleston, West Virginia she spent a lot of time coaching infield, so that was the focus of our discussion with her here. We also talked briefly about one of her other passions, coaching excellence in baserunning.

    Follow Beth on Twitter at @beth_woerner

    This is the latest article in a series in which we’ve interviewed a diverse group of coaches about teaching defensive excellence. To read the others in the series, including 2 others with female coaches, click here.

    This interview has been edited for clarity and length.

    Mark: Can you explain your playing background to me?

    Beth: Sure. I haven’t played a ton. I didn’t play softball in college. I just graduated college and I found out about a women’s baseball league in the D.C./ Baltimore area called the Eastern Women’s Baseball Conference. So I started playing with them about 6 or 7 years ago, just for fun. I’m not very good at playing baseball, but because of that, I started to figure out, started to research. How do I get better at this? How do I make this play? How do I not mess up so much? Which is pretty much what coaching is, is figuring out how do we get better? How do we make fewer mistakes?

    Mark: So what was the research that you did?

    Beth: It started out with just like really simple stuff, like how to field a ground ball, what footwork should I use? But then I started just watching the game differently, seeing the little things that happen that you may not think about when you’re just watching for fun. I’m starting to notice a lot of little things, little specifics in the footwork, specifics in the way that people throw.

    So that was sort of where I started. I played pretty much everywhere, second base, outfield, pitched a little bit, caught a little bit in the women’s league, which is a great opportunity.

    It’s not as extensive as a lot of other coaches, but I think there’s a lot of value in it.

    Mark: What does defensive excellence mean to you?

    Beth: I think defensive excellence is just being able to be the best player that the player can possibly be, whether that is making all the routine plays or making routine plays and some excellent plays. But I think that is extremely individual on the player.

    Mark: Okay, so who were the players you watched that most influenced you in trying to get to that point yourself?

    Beth: My brother played third base as a kid, so I’ve watched a lot of good infielders play. One of my favorite players is Andrelton Simmons. Watching him play defense is a lot of, a lot of fun. He’s really good and makes really excellent plays all the time, was always locked into the game. So those are probably a few people there.

    Mark: Who are the people that have influenced you as a coach?

    Beth: All the ones that have encouraged me to continue coaching. Some of those people are the coach I currently work for, which is Jonas Fester here at Lebanon Valley College. He was a great infielder himself.

    We have a lot of conversations about good defense and how to be a better coach, not just on defense, but in general. And I owe him a lot of credit for everything that I’ve done. And then also the coaches that I worked with at the University of Charleston under Robbie Britt, who is now at Eastern Michigan, and Pablo Cabrera, who’s now with the Red Sox.

    Pablo and I worked together as infield coaches together at Charleston and we learned a lot together. I’m sure some of the stuff that I’ll talk about here in a minute is stuff that he and I worked on together and came up with together.

    He played infield in college and was a very good infielder and I had a background in teaching but didn’t know that much about infield. So we came from two very different backgrounds and worked together to create the way that we both think about infield now.

    About Beth Woerner
    – Full-time assistant baseball coach, Lebanon Valley College (NCAA Division III)
    – One of few women working in college baseball coaching
    – Experience comes from playing in adult baseball leagues
    – Graduate of James Madison University

    Mark: What’s an example of something you work on with players now?

    Beth: It’s hard to say because it’s different with every player. Every player is working on different little things. But I think one of my favorite things to teach and to work on with players is the infield prep step, which is whatever the player is doing before the pitch. I think it’s fun because every player is a little bit different in what they feel.

    And it’s really about what they feel. Matching that to what they’re actually doing, so there’s creativity required to become good at it. That’s true of all parts of the fielding a ground ball and making a play. There’s little things that players can do to maximize what they’re good at and limit their weaknesses.

    Mark: Okay, can you pick out a player and go into the specifics with his prep step?

    Beth: I love working with third basemen.

    One of our third basemen last year, he was working with his prep step and he was a little bit early, which means that he wasn’t reacting as quickly as he could because he was heavy on his feet at the point when he was making the decision to move, once he knew where the ball was going.

    So we worked with him and it was a lot of fun because every now and then he would say, hey, I’m still a little off. Can we check in? And then we would work with some video and check in where he was at and then he could work on it in his drills once he knew that he was a little late and needed an adjustment.

    Beth: When I first got to Lebanon Valley, I wasn’t really sure how the team was gonna treat me and he accepted me as somebody who could help him get better right away. So that was a pretty special moment for me as a young coach that this player wants to get better and wants to use all of his resources … which is me, to get better.

    Mark: What else have you discovered in working with players?

    Beth: This is true for all coaches—some players connect with you better and some don’t, but I think most players, once they realize that this person wants to help me get better, they’re going to do what they feel like they need to in order to get better.

    Sometimes you don’t necessarily have to have the closest connection with every single player because they’ll teach each other what you teach them.

    It’s really cool they’re taking what you’ve taught them and applying it. And not only applying it, but helping other people also learn how to do those things better.

    Mark: Did your experience with him get you credibility with everybody else?

    Beth: Yeah, younger players, sometimes don’t even know how to interact with coaches in general. Once they see this is how this player, who they trust, trusts me and is working with their coach, it’s a model for them on how to communicate with a coach.

    Mark: What’s the hardest part about teaching defense?

    Beth: I think the hardest part and the coolest part are the same answer. Every single player is different. Everyone has different strengths and weaknesses.

    Everyone feels the way their body moves, the way they do things differently. Everyone understands the game differently. So that makes it difficult because every single player is a new challenge. That makes it a lot of fun because you’re always trying to work with that player and figure it out.

    Hey, this is exactly what you’re feeling. This is exactly what you’re doing. This is how we can get better. There’s no formula or special secret sauce to getting a player better because everyone is different and has different experiences.

    Mark: Okay. How have you used technology and data in your coaching?

    Beth: We’re a Division III school, so we don’t have as many resources as some of the other programs. But we do still use a lot of information, and we still use the research that other teams and organizations do to inform decisions.

    And for the defense specifically, we will track some things. We’ll track the plays that our players are making. We’re actually in the process of figuring out how we want to do that this year. And then we use that as feedback for our players.

    Mark: You have a master’s in strategic leadership. How does that come in handy in coaching?

    Beth: We talked about leadership in all different kinds of organizations and how things are organized for leaders. Knowing how leaders work is helpful in knowing that I want to do things how this leader does them or don’t want to do things how this leader does them.

    Mark: I know you also teach baserunning, and you just did a talk on it at Saberseminar, and I saw the tweet that you sent after Ken Rosenthal wrote about vault leads.

    So, why don’t you give us the perspective on the vault lead from the baserunner’s side, and then how you would stop it defensively from a pitcher, catcher, fielder combo?

    Beth: The vault lead give you an advantage when a pitcher’s quicker, has a quicker delivery. It helps you to get a better jump and our players who have a good feel of it, they actually have an easy time getting back to the base no matter what part of the vault they’re in. That’s the difficult part – that it’s easier for a pitcher to catch you off-balance.

    I think the players who are very good at it and understand the way that it’s supposed to work in terms of timing are able to easily implement the vault leads.

    It also is useful against the left-handed pitcher because you might have a hard time getting a good jump. Vault leads are difficult because it requires a lot of creativity on the player’s part to know exactly what they’re able to do and how to do it and know exactly where they are in space at those points where there may be more risk involved in getting that vault jump.

    Our players really enjoyed learning how to do them. We’ll play some development games that don’t count towards anything, but both teams are just there to get better.

    One of our players who isn’t really a base stealer was like, ‘Hey coach, I’m just going to try a vault lead. I want to see what happens.’ He stole the base and came back to me and said that was the best jump he ever got in his life. ‘I felt like I got there so fast and was running so fast.’

    The benefit of it is it’s able to give you a little extra momentum, just like if you’re driving and you come to a stoplight, you stop all the way at the stoplight, it’s going to take you longer to keep going. But if you keep rolling just a little bit, it’s going to be easier to accelerate once the light turns green.

    It’s the same kind of concept, but with running. If a full vault isn’t comfortable, maybe we can do half vault, or maybe we can do a walking lead, or some kind of other lead that gets that momentum without having to do the full vault.

    Players love getting creative. They get to make it their own, how they want to do the vault.

    And then, on the defending it side, it’s a lot of fun here at practice, actually, when we practice it. Because the pitchers, they really want to pick off runners, especially some of our faster runners who are able to get further off the base.

    So we’ll get competitive in practice and have pickoff practices where the base runners are practicing getting their leads and the pitchers are practicing pickoffs to see how much momentum they can get, how far off the base, and the pitchers are working on mixing up their timings.

    Having a different delivery, maybe a slightly higher leg kick or a slightly lower leg kick. There’s all kinds of different things to to hold the runners.

    And what’s cool about practicing it with our pitchers is that sometimes, hey, I can tell that you’re gonna pick off because you turn your head a different way when you’re picking off, and we’ll tell our pitchers that so that they can get even better.

    Mark: What are your aspirations as a coach? Long term?

    Beth: This is a tough question because I really don’t know and I debate it with myself all the time. I love college baseball when I first started, my original dream was to work in the big leagues like everyone else.

    I think I will likely end up doing quite a few different things in the future, but I definitely want to stay working with players and I want to keep working with the best players that I can.

    Mark: Last question: Is there any point that you wanted to make that I didn’t give you a chance to make?

    Beth: I love working with the players and I love getting creative with players to help them learn what they’re able to do and how to be the best player they can be. The creativity piece is a lot of fun.

    Anybody can coach. Even if you don’t know every single little thing there is to know about baseball, you’ll figure it out.

  • August’s Defensive Players of the Month

    August’s Defensive Players of the Month

    This month the SIS/Fielding Bible Awards Defensive Player of the Month goes to two players who demonstrated defensive dominance in August: Phillies center fielder Johan Rojas and Pirates 3rd baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes.

    Rojas is getting it done at a premium position for a Phillies team that can use the defensive help. He saved 11 runs in August, the most of any player, and has 12 Defensive Runs Saved for the season. He ranks tied for 3rd in Runs Saved by a center fielder despite ranking 44th among them in innings played. Rojas was also the runaway leader in Runs Saved by a minor league center fielder with 15.

    Rojas also covers ground better than most. He ranks 5th in MLB’s Jumps stat, covering nearly 3 feet more than the average outfielder within the first 3 seconds of batted-ball contact. He ranks 3rd in the Statcast metric “Burst” – covering more ground than the average outfielder when the ball has been in the air from 1.5 to 3 seconds.

    Additionally, Rojas has a strong arm, one that has averaged about 92 MPH on the top 10% of his throws. That ranks Top 5 among center fielders this season. Also impressive is that he’s minimized his mistakes. He had only 1 Error and no Defensive Misplays the entire month.

    Rojas’ 11 Runs Saved for the month easily topped the next-closest center fielder. Daulton Varsho (6) of the Blue Jays was the only other player with more than 5 Runs Saved there in August.

    Hayes also easily led his position with 9 Runs Saved in August. The next-closest third baseman for the month was Austin Riley of the Braves with 5 Runs Saved.

    Hayes is a two-time winner of the award this season, having also taken the honor in April. This month marked a triumphant return from the lower back injury that caused him to miss all but one game in July. Hayes now has 20 Runs Saved this season and reclaimed the seasonal lead in Runs Saved at third base from Ryan McMahon of the Rockies, who has 17. No one else has more than 10 Runs Saved at that position this season. By the way, Hayes also hit .320 with 6 home runs, 20 RBI, and a .956 OPS in August.

    Other players under consideration for the award this month included Guardians left fielder Steven Kwan and second baseman Andrés Giménez, and Padres right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Each led his respective position in Runs Saved for the month.

    A reminder that Sports Info Solutions will announce the winners of The 2023 Fielding Bible Awards in late October. A panel of voters selects the top defensive player at each position, along with a multi-position honoree. This will be our 18th consecutive year presenting this honor.

  • Dodgers Doing It On Defense Again

    Dodgers Doing It On Defense Again

    On June 18 the Dodgers lost to the Giants, 7-3, completing a three-game Giants’ sweep in which the Dodgers were outscored 29-8 and gave up at least 7 runs in every game.

    Each of the last 2 games featured an array of misplays and errors. There were offline or wasted throws, missed line drives, bobbled ground balls, and multiple failures to catch throws.

    At that point in the season the Dodgers were a not-very-Dodgers like 39-33.

    Since that day, the Dodgers have looked a lot more like the Dodgers you thought you knew, going 44-16. And they’ve had something of a defensive reset.

    The Dodgers totaled -5 Defensive Runs Saved and ranked 21st in that stat at the All-Star Break. But since the Break, they rank No. 1 with 43 Runs Saved. They’re now 4th overall.

    Most Defensive Runs Saved – 2023 Season

    Team Runs Saved
    Blue Jays 72
    Brewers 50
    Padres 41
    Dodgers 38
    Rays 34

     

    What’s been so good about the Dodgers defense this season?

    Left Side of the Infield

    When the Dodgers traded for Miguel Rojas in January, they knew they were getting a top defensive player. And though Rojas hasn’t hit, he’s more than met defensive expectations with plays like this one. He ranks 4th among shortstops in Defensive Runs Saved with 11 and he has the most Runs Saved of any Dodgers player since their hot streak started on June 20 with 7.

    Additionally since returning from injury on June 27, Max Muncy has looked more like the third baseman he was in 2022 when he saved seven runs in a little more than a half-season’s worth of games. He’s saved 4 runs there since his return. He was at -2 at third base prior to that.

    Mookie

    Mookie Betts isn’t going to win a Fielding Bible Award in right field this season but he’s in-play for our multi-position honor.

    In 2023 Betts has split time between right field, second base and shortstop. He’s handled second base particularly well, netting 6 Runs Saved in 50 games. And keep in mind that he was replacing Miguel Vargas, who was at -3 Runs Saved there.

    The Outfield

    The Dodgers are one of the best teams in baseball at turning balls hit in the air into outs. Among a crowded field of teams they rank in the Top 5 in that stat both overall and specific to balls hit to the outfield.

    Through June 18, they ranked 11th in an efficiency stat that measures their catch rate (how often they’ve caught balls). Since then, they’re No. 2 in MLB and they’ve increased their out rate by more than 4 percentage points.

    An increase of that much on the roughly 800 balls hit in the air represents about 34 more catches than they would have made if they were performing at their pre-June 20 level.

    Out Rate on Balls Hit In the Air

    Through June 18 Through June 20
    Out Rate 66.6% 70.9%
    Out Rate (Balls Hit to OF) 59.6% 64.0%

     

    With Betts being shuffled between right field and the infield, the success of the Dodgers outfield defense this season is more of a collective effort than one player carrying the load. For example, three-time Fielding Bible Award winner Jason Heyward has saved 4 runs in 68 games in right field (though he’s -2 in a brief amount of time in center. Another past Fielding Bible winner David Peralta has manned left field without issue, saving 4 runs.

    And more recently, James Outman has lived up to his last name. He has 3 Runs Saved playing center field exclusively in August. He was -3 there prior to that.

    Putting Players In The Right Place

    When we say collective effort, that includes the team’s coaching staff too. Our Defensive Runs Saved splits up credit between a player’s skill and how well or poorly he’s positioned.

    The Dodgers have 21 Positioning Runs Saved combining the team’s infield and outfield alignments. Here are a couple of instances (here and here)in which the team got significant positioning credit for putting their fielders in position to best use their skills.

    Catcher

    What Will Smith has done the last three years with both his bat and his glove is impressive. Smith is in line for his 3rd straight season with an OPS+ of 120 and at least 5 Defensive Runs Saved behind the plate.

    Smith currently ranks tied for 5th among catchers with 8 Runs Saved (which would be his best season total yet) helped by above-average pitch-framing stats. The Dodgers are 58-29 when he starts at catcher, 25-20 when he doesn’t

    A Tale of 2 Pitchers

    Just like the Dodgers knew what they were getting in Miguel Rojas, they knew what they were getting in Noah Syndergaard. And when they traded Syndergaard, who has never been able to thwart a running game, they got rid of a pitcher who was bringing down the team’s Runs Saved total. He was at -4 for them. They’ve also since dealt oft-used reliever Phil Bickford and his -3.

    But one guy who hasn’t gone anywhere is Clayton Kershaw, who has 4 Runs Saved, giving him potentially his best defensive season since 2015.

    In Sum

    Give the Dodgers credit for consistency. Presuming these numbers hold up, they’ll rank in the Top 10 in Defensive Runs Saved for the 8th straight season. They’ve ranked in the Top 6 in 6 of the last 7 years. Defensive excellence continues to be a staple for them year-in and year-out. This year, it just took them a little while to get to that point.

  • Marveling At The Defense Of Fernando Tatis Jr.

    Marveling At The Defense Of Fernando Tatis Jr.

    It was never a question of if Fernando Tatís Jr.’s athleticism would play on defense. Even in his tumultuous time as a shortstop, he flashed the leather with leaping plays that made him look more like the Air Jordan logo than a baseball player. 

    But the errors piled up and the Defensive Runs Saved sank, and after a brief cameo in the corner outfield in late 2021, it was clear Tatís, who missed all of last year first due to a fractured wrist and then a PED suspension, would be calling right field his more permanent home entering 2023. 

    By the numbers, the move has paid off in spades. The 24-year-old is the runaway right field leader in Defensive Runs Saved with 23. His 21 Runs Saved rank second among all outfielders, trailing only Daulton Varsho’s 24 and above past Fielding Bible Award winners like Kevin Kiermaier and Steven Kwan. 

    Most Defensive Runs Saved – 2023 Right Field 

    Name Team Runs Saved
    Fernando Tatis Jr. Padres 23
    Alex Verdugo Red Sox 14
    Ramón Laureano A’s-Guardians 9
    Adolis García Rangers 7
    Will Brennan Guardians 7
    Blake Perkins Brewers 7

    A closer look reveals how he’s tapped into his unicorn-like athletic ability to close the gap on such stalwarts, and where he can hope to improve to rank among the truly defensive elite in the outfield. 

    The arm

    What stands out, perhaps unsurprisingly, is his arm. He’s tied for 2nd among outfielders in assists with 11 and the video shows they’re no cheapies. 

    “I was having a conversation about this very topic the other day and the thing we are all wondering is why people keep running,” SIS VP of Baseball Bobby Scales said. “It seems foolish, but they keep going.”

    “The only thing we can think of is they are testing his decision making and/or his accuracy. Jeff Francoeur used to be this way as well: People ran because they were betting on him chucking it into row ZZ. But if they were wrong, it was ugly.” 

     

    Early on in the year, like the plays shown above, it was a matter of baserunners and base coaches underestimating the might of his cannon. As the season has progressed, however, he’s been turning awkward angles into surprising outs. 

    Of Tatís’ 4Good Fielding Plays given for outfield assists in June, three came on plays in which his momentum was carrying him toward the right field line. Two such plays demonstrate the potential of Tatís’ defensive ability (on the third, the Colorado broadcast team claims Elehuris Montero stumbled a bit out of the box, making him easier to nab). 

    On this play against the Guardians, Amed Rosario, who possesses 95th percentile sprint speed (per Baseball Savant), thinks about taking two. As he sees Tatís digging the ball out of the corner, he throws on the brakes, fearful of getting nailed at second. Tatís, whose mind was surely on making the throw to second to try to prevent Rosario from getting there, sees the runner make the wide turn, adjusts, and fires a one-hop strike to Jake Cronenworth for the out. 

    The baserunner is erased, both out of fear of Tatís’ arm and because of it. 

    In this play, Elly De La Cruz chops a single into shallow right. Tatís comes in to field the ball and De La Cruz, maybe the fastest man in the sport, decides to challenge him. The displaced infielder picks up the ball like a second baseman, turns like he’s making a throw across the diamond, and fires a seed to get the runner. 

    In both plays, Tatís is able to control himself as he moves laterally to field the ball, shift his body to put himself in a position to make a throw back toward the infield, and fires to get the runner. They require skills one might typically expect from an infielder, demonstrating one of the advantages the former shortstop seems to have over his outfield contemporaries: He was playing on the dirt just two seasons ago. 

    The range

    It hasn’t been only with his arm that Tatís has been able to save extra bases. He leads all right fielders with +10 Plays Saved on deep balls, which are likelier to be doubles and triples. 

    The converted infielder has shown no fear going back toward the wall. On this play, in just his 21st Major League game in right field, he sprints toward the corner before using the fence to stop his momentum. At the end of last month, he navigated an awkward right field corner at Petco Park to rob Bryan Reynolds, crashing into the jutting right field foul pole to pad his fall. 

    The downside

    Early in the season, he made his share of misplays that can likely be attributed to inexperience. 

    On two plays in his first series back from suspension, Tatís attempted to throw to the base ahead of the lead runner, allowing the trail runner to advance an additional base. On one hit in his very first game back, he fired home even though the runner didn’t even attempt to advance from third, making it easy for the batter to take second. 

    The 4th-year standout has also suffered a bit from overestimating his own ability. He didn’t have much of a chance on two failed slides against the Nationals in the first half, allowing runners to move up extra bases. 

    But though there have been mistakes – Tatis ranks 8th among right fielders in our Defensive Misplay tracking on a per-inning basis – the benefits have far outweighed the risks.

    And it’s that athletic ability that makes one wonder what the defensive ceiling looks like for him. 

    He gets a defensive misplay on this deep fly ball for not reeling it in, but if you were to make a short list of outfielders who have a chance to make that play in the first place, Tatís might be the only name. 

    That always is the case: No matter where he finds himself on the diamond, Tatís’ upside is sky-high.

  • Stat of the Week: Rookies Making Big Defensive Impacts For Contenders

    Stat of the Week: Rookies Making Big Defensive Impacts For Contenders

    Have you gotten to see the Phillies rookie center fielder Johan Rojas since his recall about a month ago?

    He’s been something to watch from Day 1.

    Rojas was the runaway leader in Defensive Runs Saved in center field in the minor leagues. And he’s racing up that leaderboard even after just 30 games in the major leagues. He’s already saved 10 runs and is within striking distance of the MLB leaders in Runs Saved in center field, Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho, who each have 13 for the Blue Jays.

    Player Team Runs Saved
    Kevin Kiermaier Blue Jays 13
    Daulton Varsho Blue Jays 13
    Johan Rojas Phillies 10
    Brenton Doyle Rockies 10
    Kyle Isbel Royals 10

    Rojas is a potential gamechanger for a Phillies team that has struggled defensively the last few seasons. The Phillies had -24 Runs Saved at the All-Star Break but have actually increased that total by 5 runs since then.

    But Rojas isn’t the only rookie to make a prominent impact defensively for a postseason contender.

    We’ve brought up a few in some of the articles we’ve written. Here’s a list of those who have been the most impressive for potential playoff teams.

    Giants catcher Patrick Bailey leads everyone at that position with 15 Runs Saved. He’s been great at both pitch framing and controlling the running game. He will be a strong contender for a Fielding Bible Award.

    Another catcher, Yainer Diaz of the Astros, has forced Houston’s hand a little bit, as his 4 Runs Saved are considerably better than pitching staff favorite Martín Maldonado’s -10.

    We just wrote about Mariners infielder José Caballero and outfielder Cade Marlowe in an article for our website this week. Caballero has 9 Runs Saved, most of anyone on the team. Marlowe has excelled for the Mariners, contributing 7 Runs Saved to an outfield that ranks 4th in the majors in that stat.

    There’s also Orioles infielders Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg. Henderson, barely rookie eligible after getting a long look last season, has 7 Runs Saved at shortstop and 2 at third base. Westburg has 6 Runs Saved at second base (and -2 at third base) since his recall two months ago.

    The NL Central is loaded with talented rookie fielders. The Brewers have Joey Wiemer and Brice Turang, as well as our June Defensive Player of the Month winner, Blake Perkins. Between the 3 of them, they have 23 of the Brewers’ 46 Runs Saved. Turang ranks tied for 5th at 2nd base with 8 Runs Saved. Perkins, out with an oblique injury, has played even less than Rojas but ranks tied for 4th among right fielders with 7 Runs Saved. Overall, the Brewers rank second to the Blue Jays in Runs Saved this season.

    And yes the Reds have Elly De La Cruz, but their best defender may be Matt McLain, who has split time between shortstop and second base and handled both without issue. He’s tied for the team lead with T.J. Friedl with 5 Runs Saved.

    There are some big moments ahead for these players in the next 5 weeks. They’ve played like seasoned veterans so far but their biggest tests have yet to come.

  • The Transformation of Kodai Senga

    The Transformation of Kodai Senga

    Photo by Wilfred Perez/Icon Sportswire

    Kodai Senga has come to Major League Baseball and immediately cemented himself as a top of the rotation pitcher. In his first season in MLB Senga has put up the 12th-lowest ERA among qualified pitchers with a 3.19. He’s also totaled the 9th highest K% (28%) and the 15th best swinging strike rate (12.5%).

    It’s worth mentioning that Senga is doing this with a baseball completely different from what he was used to. MLB baseballs are slightly bigger and less tacky compared to NPB baseballs. 

    Senga had a 4.14 ERA in his first 7 starts. But in his 8th start, May 17 vs the Rays, it seems like things clicked for him. In that start Senga went 6 innings, struck out 12 and allowed only 1 earned run. There’s been notable differences in how Senga has used all of his pitches since that game. The results have been there. He’s dropped his season ERA by nearly a full point.

    Brandon Tew and I wanted to see how much he’s changed from last season in Japan. Brandon will touch on how he worked in Japan in 2022 and I will dive into Senga this season. If you want a more in-depth look at Senga in NPB you can read it here.

    4-seam fastball

    NPB: Senga was reliant on early-count fastballs to get ahead of hitters early. This would bite him every now and then as he gave up 4 HRs off the fastball. The threat of getting beaten on a badly-located fastball was still minimal so it didn’t stop him from using it.

    MLB: Senga’s 4-seam is still his most used pitch but the usage continues to decline. This is mostly because the shape of it isn’t great. It has just above-average ride so he struggles to get swings and misses (a 16.7% whiff rate). 

    Senga doesn’t even rank in the Top 200 in fastball induced vertical break (iVB) with an iVB of 16.4 inches, not far above the league average of 15.7. For reference, the best iVB is Felix Bautista with 20.5 inches. Basically, Senga’s fastball doesn’t have much deception compared to others.

    Hitters aren’t necessarily crushing his fastball relative to other pitchers. they have a .267 avg, .424 slug with 6 home runs (MLB average fastball numbers are .270 and .448). The problem for Senga was the counts in which he has used the fastball. He was using the fastball in the “traditional” fastball counts, so hitters were ready for it. 

    Here’s a graphic from Baseball Savant showing Senga’s usage by count in his first 7 starts. He was using the 4-seamer earlier in counts, similar to when he used it in Japan. Now he’s started to use the cutter early in counts and save the fastball for late in the ABs. With 2 strikes the fastball usage has gone from 28% to 37%.

    The splits this season for the fastball when the batter is ahead vs when the batter is behind show decisively different numbers, particularly with his whiff rate.

     Batter ahead: .288 avg .441 slg 8% whiff

     Batter behind: .234 avg .404 slg 24% whiff

    Using the fastball late in counts is super effective because of the way it tunnels with his forkball. Because his forkball is so nasty, hitters have to be ready for it late in counts. Senga uses this to his advantage and surprises them with his fastball. 

    Cutter

    NPB: Senga mainly attacked the best hitters in NPB with his cutter. He threw it mainly inside to LHBs but he would throw the pitch to different quadrants. Including down and away from RHBs or backdooring it to lefties. 

    MLB: Senga’s cutter has become not just his most important pitch, but one of the best pitches in all of baseball. The cutter has totaled a 17 Run Value, the highest for a cutter, and 10th-best for any pitch in baseball. 

    In 127 ABs ending with one, hitters have only a .205 avg and .268 slg. He generates a 51% ground ball rate against it. His ability to make it move late and get just under the barrel makes it difficult for hitters to square up. 

    Similar to when he was in NPB, he will throw it anywhere, but he can change the shape of it too. Sometimes it cuts, sometimes it goes straight down, and sometimes he can make it move arm side. 

    This usage by count breakdown shows his usages since the May 11 start. His cutter usage has seen a big increase in counts where the hitter has the advantage. In the first 7 starts, he used it 34% when he was behind in the count, it’s up to 51% since.

    Forkball

    NPB: The forkball was Senga’s best weapon. He threw it more than any other pitch in 2-strike counts and over half his strikeouts came with it. The pitch would consistently fool hitters because they had to gear up for his fastball.

    MLB: Senga’s forkball is one of the nastiest pitches in all of baseball. For pitch types with at least 100 plate appearances here are some ranks for Senga’s forkball:

     .128 avg (7th-lowest)            

     .152 slg (2nd-lowest)                 

     58.6% whiff (1st)            

     55.9% K (2nd)

    The tunnel effect he gets on the forkball and 4-seamer make it incredibly difficult for hitters to pick up on. Senga’s average vertical break on the forkball is 37.5 inches. 

    The key is that it stays on the same plane as the fastball for such a long time then drops off a cliff. Here’s an example in video form from Pitching Ninja.

    Not only is Senga’s tunneling with his forkball and fastball elite but the velocity differential between the 2 pitches is one of the best in baseball (compared to other pitchers’ splitter/fastball differential). Senga gets a 12.4 mph difference between the 2 pitches, 2nd-best to only Fernando Cruz who gets 12.8 mph.

    Curveball

    NPB: Senga had two different curveballs, a 12-6 curve (mid 70s MPH) and one that was slurvy (low 80s mph). He had trouble keeping the shape consistent with both of them. He struggled to use the pitches effectively because of that but the change of speed helped keep hitters off balance. 

    MLB: Senga has separated his two curveballs since coming to MLB. His curveball this season is 12-6 with big drop and thrown super slow (73 MPH). 

    He uses it to surprise hitters and steal strikes a few times a game. He’s thrown 61 CBs, 49 of them have been first pitches of ABs. 

    Sweeper 

    MLB: We think the slurvy variation of Senga’s curveball in Japan is what is being classified as his sweeper. 

    His sweeper has a lot of drop and not much sweep. Compared to other sweepers thrown at similar velocity (81 MPH) and release height to Senga’s, he gets 4 inches more drop and 2.1 inches less sweep.

    The sweeper has been his worst pitch. Hitters are 7 for 21 with a .952 slug, including 4 homeruns. The break of the sweeper is pretty lazy and thus easy for hitters to track.

    Slider

    NPB: Senga’s slider was always a work in progress. He spun it well but was never consistent. He only used it to give hitters a different look, it wasn’t a main part of his plan.

    MLB: The slider he began throwing as an alternative to the sweeper has been effective. Hitters are only 5-for-25, with all the hits being singles. It’s a gyro slider with high spin and sharp break. He’s done a great job of picking certain hitters and spots to use it in.

    Summation

    These 12 strikeouts against the Diamondbacks on July 5 show how difficult Senga can be to face with his repertoire. Bad swings on forkballs, fastballs taken down the middle, plus some help from the pitch clock. 

    Senga’s already put his name into the Rookie of the Year conversation. As he continues to evolve, he could become the favorite after a few more starts.