Category: 2025 MLB

  • SIS Baseball Podcast With Special Guest Cam Smith (and Baseball-Reference’s Adam Darowski)

    SIS Baseball Podcast With Special Guest Cam Smith (and Baseball-Reference’s Adam Darowski)

    Photo: Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire
    Episode description
    On this episode, our Mark Simon talks to Astros rookie right fielder Cam Smith who ranks among the leaders in Defensive Runs Saved despite never having played the position before this season.

    Cam talked about his welcome to the big leagues’ moments and explained how teammate Jake Meyers and the Astros outfield coaches have helped in his acclimation to a new position.

    Then, we switched topics. Mark went to the SABR convention and shared some of the things he learned, and brought on Sports-Reference’s executive director of design Adam Darowski to share his research about players with 4,000 hits in pro baseball.

    Lastly, Mark and his colleague Ben Schneider talked about what SIS measures regarding home plate umpire performance and looked at some tendencies among MLB umpires the last couple of seasons.

    Transcript

    Mark Simon: Hi, and welcome to the Sports Info Solutions Baseball podcast. Our lead guest today is one of the top rookie in baseball this season, Astros, right fielder Cam Smith. Hey Cam.

    Cam Smith: Hey Mark. How you doing?

    Mark Simon: Good. Let’s get right to it. You have a memory of a favorite defensive play that you made as a kid?

    Cam Smith: Yeah.

    I can remember in travel ball, I think I was about 15 years old. I was playing shortstop. Obviously, ’cause I’ve always played infield and I made a diving play up the middle, but there was a line drive up the middle and I made a diving play and I thought that was the coolest thing ever ’cause every kid wants to make those diving plays. So I just thought that was really cool.

    Mark Simon: How did you prioritize defense when you were a kid?

    Cam Smith: Honestly I really just relied on my athletic ability. I really didn’t start paying attention to defense until college, I would say. But I felt I got away with a lot more when I was younger, obviously, but once you get to college and this level, you really have to hone in on those skills.

    Mark Simon: Yep. And now, right field, a transition from the infield, as you said, you always played infield. Had you played any right field in the past before this year?

    Cam Smith: No, never. Actually. Never. I’ve always wondered how it is. I’ve always wondered how it is to play out there.

    First time getting out there, I thought everything was so far away from me. So that was something I had to get used to but now it seems natural for now.

    Mark Simon: So what are some of the other things that were your welcome to the major leagues. Welcome to right field.

    Cam Smith: Yeah. I think going through scenarios when there’s runners on base, when we’re up by one or there’s a tie game late in the game, seventh, eighth, ninth inning. You, I kind of have to think about the scenarios of: Where the balls hit. If it’s right at me, where should I go with it?

    If it’s in the air back by the track, where should I go with it? There’s a lot of things you gotta think about, more than I expected.

    Mark Simon: And in Houston, the right field fence is a little closer to you, I would imagine. It’s a shallower right field than it is in most parks. How do you deal with that?

    Cam Smith: Honestly I play pretty deep since it is a short fence. I play pretty far back, almost near the track, so I kind of know where the wall is. Before the ball’s hit. I really don’t have to look back. I’m pretty comfortable out there now. At first it was obviously a big adjustment, but now I feel comfortable

    Mark Simon: Opening day. There was a ball. You missed a dive on Luis Torrens’ line drive to shallow. Was that your welcome to the big leagues kind of moment?

    Cam Smith: Yeah, I guess you could say that. Yeah.

    Mark Simon: What were some others that have happened along the way? Are there any other things? Maybe one for the good.

    Cam Smith: I know I made the similar slide and catch against the Blue Jays. I had attempted to do the same slide I did in opening day and I ended up catching that one. So that was a similar one. I got to make the play.

    Mark Simon: Who had been some of your mentors in terms of helping you make the adjustment?

    Cam Smith: Everybody. It’s tough to pinpoint one guy. I think I’ve had conversations with everybody in my clubhouse.

    They’re very welcoming. When it comes to a new guy me who hasn’t been through it they’re not , figure it out. They’re helping me all the way.

    Mark Simon: So some of the other ballparks that you’ve been, I saw that you were in Coors, that you made a leap and catch against the fence there, there was also a challenging flyball there.

    Have you found any particular ballparks, especially challenging?

    Cam Smith: Yes. I think the Twins have a hang-over in right field. So the flyballs that I think are routine, they could hit that, that porch up there and bounce way. Close to the infield. So that was, I think that was the trickiest ballpark I played in.

    Mark Simon: Have you played Fenway yet?

    Cam Smith: No, I haven’t yet. We’ll be there in August and we’ll see how that is.

    Mark Simon: So in addition to fielding balls, have you had any moments with a throw that have been particularly memorable yet?

    Cam Smith: I haven’t got to throw anybody out, I think.

    But I did have an assist from Dubon. Colorado. I think that’s just the one that pops into my head immediately ’cause it was so recent.

    Mark Simon: Have you found any guys a little reluctant to run on you?

    Cam Smith: Yeah, I think so. I think they’re holding back a little bit. I think they know I can throw it.

    Mark Simon: Have you come close to robbing a home run?

    Cam Smith: I have. Come close. I Louise Arias when we played the Padres at home, I think that was the closest I’ve gotten to robbing a home run. It was just two feet too high. But yeah I haven’t got many chances, honestly.

    Mark Simon: Yep. But you’re gonna have more, ’cause Kyle had a whole bunch, Kyle Tucker had a whole bunch when he was playing right field.

    Do you have a favorite play that you’ve made so far?

    Cam Smith: Honestly, I would say that assist in Colorado. ’cause I think it was a close game and Dubon had thrown the runner out from third to home. That was a big play, I think that kept us in there. So that was probably my favorite play.

    Mark Simon: How do you use data when it comes to positioning?

    Cam Smith: So our outfield coach, Jason Bell, he has a card that we look at for every hitter and it matches up with every pitcher we have. So the positioning’s already on the carD. So I just really just had to look at it and find that spot in the outfield.

    Mark Simon: Have you had any good conversations with your fellow outfielders about what it takes to play the outfield?

    Cam Smith: Jake Myers is my coach on the field. He is the best center fielder in the game and obviously I can’t ask my coaches to come out to the field and run me through situations. So Jake Myers the veteran, He’s my coach on the field and I heavily rely on him.

    Mark Simon: What’s an example of something he did that helped you out?

    Cam Smith: Going through scenarios. When we make a pitching change. I get a chance to go over to center field and talk to him about, okay there’s runners on first and second we’re up by two. Do I need to worry about this guy at second or can I just make sure the guy on first doesn’t get the third? Just simple things like that.

    Mark Simon: Let’s close with this. If a kid wanted to play you, right field in particular, what would you tell him He needs to know?

    Cam Smith: Honestly just keep asking questions and just be a dog out there playing fetch.

    Mark Simon: What’s the best question that you’ve asked so far? The question that you’ve gotten the best answer on?

    Cam Smith: I would say how to throw the ball. Obviously it’s a different arm slot from the infield to the outfield. So I talked with Jason Bell and Dave Clark about how am I supposed to throw?

    I’ve never done it, but they’ve worked with me a few days in a row and I think I picked it up pretty good. You just released at that high slot.

    Mark Simon: It is extremely impressive that you have basically learned the position on the fly and at the time that we’re talking you’re third in the majors in Defensive Runs Saved in right field. Cam Smith, thanks for taking the time to join us. Best of luck the rest of the year.

    Cam Smith: Yeah. Thank you, mark.

    Mark Simon: I just got back from the Society for American Baseball Research National Convention just outside Dallas, where there were so many good presentations This year, a real diverse group.

    We learned about the integration of minor league baseball in Texas. Heard from Pudge Rodriguez, Elvis Andrus Hall of Famer, Ferguson Jenkins. Many others. Just to share one presentation, we’re joined briefly by Adam Darowski, the Executive Director of Design at Sports Reference. Adam, you presented it on the 4,000 Hit Club, but you expanded the club.

    Explain all the leagues that this encompasses.

    Adam Darowski: Oh yeah. So the 4,000 Professional Hits includes not only the major leagues, the AL and NL and the Negro Leagues, but also the US Minor leagues. Postseason, but then we branch out outside of the USA, we’re looking in Mexico, Mexican Summer League, Mexican Winter League, Mexican Minor Leagues, Japan, KBO, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Venezuela.

    We even had a little bit of a representation from Italy. And then on top of that we added some international tournaments. Kind of thinking of it as a Club and country type of feel you hear in soccer. So included the WBC, the Caribbean series, and also the Inter-American series, which took the place of the Caribbean series for a few years.

    Mark Simon: Pete Rose remains at the top, but then the players that came after him provide a good education on baseball globally. Can you run through one or two of those?

    Adam Darowski: Yeah, I guess everybody knows Ty Cobb is number two, but then on this list there were several players between Rose and Cobb and we had Hector Espino of Mexico.

    We had Ichiro, if you include his Japanese stats, but also he had a season in something called the Hawaiian Winter League, which I learned about as part of this process. The most surprising guy for me was Mattias Carillo, who was with the Marlins when they kicked off in 93 and 94. Who knew he had over 4,500 professional hits.

    And then Minnie Minoso and Julio Franco are two names that we both know that stand just ahead of Cobb

    Mark Simon: Also making the list, Tony Perez, which was kind of a neat thing to see.

    Adam Darowski: Yeah, there, there are definitely some names that people know, Tony Perez and Hank Aaron and Cesar Tovar, Vic Davalillo, but then also some other ones that people don’t know.

    I mentioned, Carillo and then Jesus Sommers had 3000 hits in the Mexican summer league and 4,300 overall tail. Teolindo Acosta is a guy from Venezuela who made the list that I’ve become very interested in since then.

    Mark Simon: What was the coolest thing about putting this list together?

    Adam Darowski: I think it’s gotta be discovering the new names.

    The feedback I got at SABR, a couple people independently said, it’s rare that you come to a conference this and you hear names of players you’ve never heard before, and I think that was just the coolest thing that I heard the whole time.

    Mark Simon: Is there anything within this that you’d to eventually add to at someday?

    Adam Darowski: We’ve already started talking about different types of clubs, 400 wins, 600 home runs. Those lists also have a lot of players on there that, some that you may have heard of but didn’t know got 400 wins. Juan Pizarro is a pitcher from Puerto Rico. I have, I’ve done a lot of research on, and he’s over 420 wins so far.

    But then there’s also gonna be some players you’ve likely never heard of as well, and that’s fun about those lists.

    Mark Simon: Adam Darowski remaking the old time lists. Who helped you with this project?

    Adam Darowski: So there were a couple people that helped out with this. It’s really building on research from Scott Simkus starting back in 2013.

    You might know Scott from his book Outsider Baseball or from the Seamheads Negro Leagues database. He published a list back in 2013 that really kind of kicked off the 4,000 hit club. It was just nine players back then. And then an independent researcher named Von Spalding has done a lot of research, deep in the Mexican Pacific League and Venezuelan leagues.

    And he came to us and we joined forces and he doubled the size of the list just by himself. And we’ve kind of been flushing it out since then. So the two of them have been indispensable in this work. I’m just kind of the presentation layer on top of their awesome work.

    Mark Simon: I love that it’s a Spalding that helped you expand the list. If you go back through baseball history, the name Spalding, certainly very important. Adam Darowski, as I said, remaking the baseball record books. Thank you for taking the time to join us. Thank you.

    I always bring on one of my colleagues to close out the program.

    Today we’re joined by our video scout associate Ben Schneider. Ben is one of the people that helps me out a couple of projects here, and he wants to talk about something that I like to talk about. Home plate umpires. Hey Ben, how are you?

    Ben Schneider: Good, how are you? Thanks for having me.

    Mark Simon: So what we wanted to do was explain something that SIS provides to a number of different broadcast crews.

    If you watch an A’s game or a White Sox game, or a Yankees game, or a Mets game last year, the Cubs were part of this as well, and the Giants factor into this too. You might hear scouting reports given on the home plate umpire. Those come from data that we provide those broadcast crews, and Ben is part of the group that helps with that.

    And we wanted to talk a little bit about umpire tendencies because I think people know, they know Angel Hernandez, but they don’t necessarily know how certain umpires call a game and how if you’re watching a game. It may tip in one direction in terms of ball and strike calls, and there are a few guys out there that run interesting, I guess would be the easiest way to put it.

    Let’s start with this. Let’s start with guys. The most common pitch that’s taken is an outside pitch. Who are the umpires that call outside pitches as strikes more often than their colleagues and who are the ones that do it less often?

    Ben Schneider: Sure. So I find this to be an interesting topic because everyone complains about home plate umpires.

    Oh they suck this game. That’s not exactly a fair way of looking at baseball. What I find interesting is that home plate umpires effectively have two zones, that they basically have a zone for when there is a righty up and there’s a zone for a lefty up, and that’s not necessarily the same person within the same game.

    If we’re talking about away strikes, there are some of the more common umpires you might hear about longer tenured ones. Doug Eddings calls the most strikes a way to left-handed batters, but that’s not the case with right-handed batters. Rob Drake and Bruce Dreckman, also some longer tenured umpires. The three of them call more than 15% more strikes on pitches away, for Doug Eddings, that’s left-hand batters.

    Rob Drake, also lefties and Bruce Dreckman, that’s for right-handed batters. That’s not their combined zone of overall, but that is a very noticeable trend. The ones who call the fewest – James Jean is a fill-in, a relatively new umpire. Manny Gonzalez and Lance Barksdale are certainly longtime tenured umpires.

    They call 11% fewer strikes away for Manny Gonzalez. That’s a left-handed batter. Lance Barksdale, right-handed batters. And again, that’s not necessarily the case when there’s someone else on the other side of the plate.

    Mark Simon: And let me interrupt just to say, that, that when you think about this, if you think about it as the idea of a pitch and you see that pitch, and it’s a 50% strike pitch, half the time it’s a strike, half the time it’s a ball.

    This isn’t exact. But essentially, if we’re saying that a guy is 11 percentage points less than the average, that means that the typical 50% strike for that umpire is a 40% strike. So over time, you’re going to see that guy call fewer strikes in that area. In some games that may impact 3, 4, 5 pitches in a big way, and that can turn a game.

    Ben Schneider: Definitely. And of course these are tendencies. They’re not absolutes. Someone who calls fewer strikes still might call a pitch out of the zone sometimes, but you know, pitchers can pick up on this. If you notice you’re getting a couple inches off the plate, keep feeding that corner. I noticed Sunday’s White Sox Giants game, the home plate umpire was calling more strikes on inside and outside and fewer strikes above and below the zone. And that benefited Adrian Houser, a sinker baller on the mound. And it hurt Robbie Ray who has a vertical four-seam, curve ball attack. This definitely affects real baseball.

    That might just be a couple pitches, but those couple pitches could turn at bats and at bats can turn games.

    Mark Simon: So I’m looking at the list of umpires with regards to low pitches, and we were talking about Doug Eddings before, and Doug Eddings shows up on this list, but it’s not for left-handed hitters. Doug Eddings, when a right-handed hitters up at low pitch, he’s ringing you up.

    Ben Schneider: Right. That’s for Eddings. He calls 12% more strikes down in the zone for right-handed batters. And again, this is really what. I think fans might miss if you just turn one game on and you say, oh, the I’m having a tough day. That might only be for certain batters.

    It’s not they’re calling the same pitch over and over again in every situation, which is kind of easy to miss.

    Mark Simon: And you look at the other umpires, bottom of the zone, Mike Estabrook to Stu Scheurwater, Ramon DeJesus Nestor Ceja. Those are the guys that are calling a lot of strikes.

    I want to just tell a quick story. We were talking to SNY Mets Broadcast Group about six years ago, and I had said to them, Lance Barrett, is your home plate umpire for your game tonight? You’re gonna wanna watch the right-handed hitters in the outside corner. And in the fifth inning of the broadcast, they showed a rip of six times that Lance Barrett called a strike on a pitch that was off the plate, at least to our eyes.

    That was off the outside corner that he called a strike because his tendency was to call that pitch a strike.

    In terms of looking at umpires on low pitches, Scott Barry, Mark Wegner are two guys that squeezed the plate a little bit at the bottom of the zone, both for right-handed hitters, David Arrieta, David Rackley as well.

    Are there any other observations you had on with regards to low pitches?

    Ben Schneider: I think it is worth mentioning Pat Hoberg is also towards the bottom and he famously was considered one of the best umpires. He called a perfect game during the World Series, but now was effectively fired due to a connection to a betting scandal.

    So I think it is interesting that he’s in there as well.

    Mark Simon: Yeah,

    Ben Schneider: It only takes a few dozen games to recognize a clear trends with home plate umpires.

    Mark Simon: For sure, and my favorite one, and he doesn’t necessarily make any of these lists, is C.B. Buckner.

    C.B. Buckner, how he umpires for left-handed batters is completely the opposite of how he umpires for right-handed batters. And it’s just these, this bizarre set of tendencies for him that I think confuses just about anyone that watches a game. C.B Buckner a major league umpire. I’m not saying that I could do better. I’m not saying right or wrong on calls either. I’m just articulating how often a guy calls a strike compared to his peers.

    Is there anything else you wanted to say about umpires and umpiring? Have you ever done it?

    Ben Schneider: I can’t say I’ve done it in a formal setting. I would say back when I played baseball in little league during practice, sometimes as the catcher, they’d let me be, the home played umpire at the same time.

    So I, I can’t say that I have any formal experience, but you know, it is a very thankless job that you have to judge where a ball crosses a space, an imaginary space in the air moving 90 plus miles an hour, or if it’s less than that, then with extreme movement at 82 miles an hour. And it is a really hard job and it is frustrating when they get it wrong.

    But that is kind of part of what we accept when we watch a sport with judgment involved.

    Mark Simon: And we may have a robot umps in the future.

    Ben Schneider: Bring em on.

    Mark Simon Ben Schneider, thanks for taking the time to join us. We our umpire information. If anyone is interested in purchasing it, mark@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com.

    Thanks, Ben.

    And that wraps up this episode. Three good conversations in less than 30 minutes. You can find our content at sportsinfosolutions.com and fieldingbible.com. Follow us on social media, on Twitter, Bluesky and Instagram. Just search for our company name, Sports Info Solutions. We’re also active on Reddit under my handle, MarkSimon1975. I’m Mark Simon. Thank you for listening to the Sports Info Solutions Baseball podcast.

  • What Makes The Blue Jays So Good Defensively? A Lot Of Skill

    What Makes The Blue Jays So Good Defensively? A Lot Of Skill

    Photo: Matthew Tsang/Icon Sportswire

    The Blue Jays have led the majors in Defensive Runs Saved in each of the last two seasons. They rank 4th overall in 2025 and it’s going to be tough to claim a three-peat, since they’re 11 Runs Saved back of the Braves. But they’re having an impressive season nonetheless.

    Team Runs Saved
    Braves 50
    Cubs 48
    Rangers 43
    Blue Jays 39
    Dodgers 33
    Yankees 32

    Their recent hot streak that pushed them to the top of the AL East has us reflecting on what makes them so good.

    This is a Blue Jays team with a lot of defensive skill. They have seven players with at least 5 Runs Saved this season. That’s the most of any team in MLB.

    One of their best defensive players is one of the least recognizable to fans outside Toronto. Ernie Clement has been deployed at all four infield positions, and has totaled 11 Runs Saved. Most significantly he’s totaled 6 Runs at his main position, third base, and then 5 runs at second base filling in when Andrés Giménez was injured.

    In fact, Clement ranks tied for 5th in Runs Saved at second base despite ranking 50th in innings played .

    Ke’Bryan Hayes and Matt Chapman are probably blocking Clement’s path to a Fielding Bible Award at third base, but he should be a strong contender for an AL Gold Glove there. And he’ll be a top candidate for The Fielding Bible’s award for multi-position excellence.

    Giménez, for his part, has 4 Runs Saved and still looks pretty good, if not like the guy who won a Platinum Glove a couple of years ago. The only AL second basemen with more Runs Saved than him are David Hamilton (7) and Clement. This kind of playmaking is why the Blue Jays traded for him this past offseason.

    Gimenez’s former Guardians teammate is the Blue Jays leader in Runs Saved, center fielder Myles Straw.

    Watching Straw’s highlight reel makes me think he’s determined to match or better last year’s success of Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier by himself. Straw looks a lot like the guy who ranked 2nd among center fielders in Defensive Runs Saved in 2022.

    This season he ranks 3rd with 11 Runs Saved and has played almost flawlessly at the position. Straw has only 1 Defensive Misplay & Error all season. By comparison, the two center fielders ahead of him in Runs Saved: Ceddanne Rafaela and Pete Crow-Armstrong each have at least 10 Misplays & Errors

    Straw has been a blessing because Varsho, has missed most of the season, first recovering from shoulder surgery and then out with an injury. Varsho was the SIS Defensive Player of the Year last year and has 5 Runs Saved even though he’s barely played (22 games).

    Another position at which the Blue Jays have gotten good value from multiple players is catcher. The combination of Alejandro Kirk and Tyler Heineman have been great, combining for  11 Runs Saved there. The only team to get more from its catchers is the Red Sox (14).

    Kirk, who has 7 Runs Saved, is a good all-around catcher with solid numbers in pitch framing, pitch blocking, and limiting stolen bases. This isn’t a first-time thing. His 46 Runs Saved are the most among catchers in the last 4 seasons.

    Most Runs Saved By Catcher – Last 4 Seasons

    Name Runs Saved
    Alejandro Kirk 46
    Patrick Bailey 45
    Jose Trevino 37
    Gabriel Moreno 34
    Adley Rutschman 31
    Cal Raleigh 30
    Freddy Fermin 30
    Austin Hedges 29

    The one other player among those who have at least 5 Runs Saved is first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has 6 Runs Saved. Guerrero has shown more range this year than past years, particularly on balls hit to his right. He’s never finished a season with that many Runs Saved so we’ll see if he can carry it through for 162 games.

    The Blue Jays have had a few defensive issues to overcome. Only 4 shortstops have done worse than Bo Bichette’s -5 Runs Saved. The Jays also seem to have realized that George Springer’s best defensive days are behind him (he was pretty good in his prime). He’s totaled -6 Runs Saved in right field this season but has now DH’d in 6 of his last 7 starts.

    Additionally, the Blue Jays ranks 28th in Runs Saved from defensive positioning. This is largely the product of cutting their usage of infield shifts. There is often a statistical reward for good positioning provided the team is successful in recording outs in shifts (an example of a team who benefits from shift usage is the Dodgers). Our Video Scouts track how often a team uses a partial shift. The Blue Jays’ usage is well down from last year.

    A partial shift is one in which the second baseman or shortstop is playing adjacent to second base and other infielders deviate from traditional positioning.

    How Often A Ball Was Put In Play Against A Shifted Blue Jays Defense

      Usage Rank
    2023 57% 19th
    2024 69% 14th
    2025 40% 29th

    Nonetheless, the Blue Jays are so good defensively because their fielders are so good. And their success could be long lasting. All of their top defensive players are either signed for the long term or under team control for several years.

  • Stat of the Week: MLB’s Defensive All-Stars

    Stat of the Week: MLB’s Defensive All-Stars

    If we were to pick a lineup of the Defensive All-Stars for each league to this point in the season, who would we pick?

    The cleanest way to do this is to look at the Defensive Runs Saved leaderboards and select the top players, so that’s what we’ll do.

    Here are the NL leaders:

    (stats via fieldingbible.com)

    Position/Player Team Runs Saved
    1B- Matt Olson Braves 14
    2B- Nico Hoerner Cubs 11
    3B- Ke’Bryan Hayes Pirates 11
    SS- Nick Allen Braves 11
    LF- Tommy Pham Pirates 8
    CF- Pete Crow-Armstrong Cubs 13
    RF- Fernando Tatis Jr. Padres 12
    C- Patrick Bailey Giants 11
    P- Spencer Schwellenbach Braves 6

    1B- Matt Olson is one of three Braves representatives on the team. He’s had a terrific season, with twice as many Runs Saved as AL leader Carlos Santana. Olson’s 88 assists at first base are 16 more than the next-closest player (Pete Alonso, 72).

    2B- Nico Hoerner has a three-run lead in Runs Saved over the next-closest NL contenders, Brice Turang and Tyler Fitzgerald. He’s already matched his career high in Runs Saved at second base.

    3B- Ke’Bryan Hayes is 4 runs ahead of Matt Chapman for the NL lead. Hayes has won 2 Fielding Bible Awards and will be a strong contender to win a 3rd.

    SS- Nick Allen has met all the defensive expectations that came when he was initially a prospect with the A’s. He’s 3 runs ahead of Mookie Betts for the NL shortstop lead.

    LF- Tommy Pham is ahead here, though the competition is tight with James Wood just a run behind and 3-time Gold Glove winner 2 runs behind. Pham has totaled as many as 11 Runs Saved in a season, so this isn’t necessarily new territory for him.

    CF- Pete Crow-Armstrong is looking like the heir to Kevin Kiermaier as a regular Defensive Runs Saved leader in center field with a wide-ranging assortment of great catches. He’s already exceeded his 2024 Runs Saved (11) in 27 fewer games and has a 4-run lead on Michael Harris for the NL center field lead.

    RF- Fernando Tatis Jr. was one of the top defensive players in baseball two seasons ago and has returned to form in 2025. The next-closest NL right fielder is 5 runs behind him (Mike Yastrzemski).

    C- When Patrick Bailey isn’t hitting walk-off inside-the-park homers, he’s winning games with his defense. With 11 Runs Saved he’s 5 runs ahead of the next-closest NL catcher (Pedro Pagés, 6).

    P- Spencer Schwellenbach is currently injured, but he’s a deserving choice here. The former college shortstop nearly won a Fielding Bible Award last season and was going to contend for one this year before his injury (still could if he returns in September). He’s 2 Runs Saved ahead of fellow National Leaguers, Logan Webb, Colin Rea, and David Peterson.

    Here are the AL leaders:

    Position/Player Team Runs Saved
    1B- Carlos Santana Guardians 7
    2B- David Hamilton Red Sox 7
    3B- Ben Williamson Mariners 7
    SS- Taylor Walls Rays 18
    LF- Steven Kwan Guardians 13
    CF- Ceddanne Rafaela Red Sox 13
    RF- Adolis García Rangers 10
    C- Carlos Narváez Red Sox 11
    P- Max Fried Yankees 7

    1B- Carlos Santana is defying the defensive aging curve. He’s leading AL first basemen in Runs Saved at age 39, two years after leading everyone at the position. It’s close though. He’s currently 1 run better than Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

    2B- David Hamilton is No.1 though he’s made only 28 starts at second base for the Red Sox. He’s going to need to play more to qualify for a Gold Glove or Fielding Bible Award but he’s definitely shown he can handle the position. He had 8 Runs Saved in a similar small sample last season. Hamilton has a 2-run lead on Ernie Clement, who is more likely to qualify at third base. Among AL regulars, Andrés Giménez is closest to Hamilton, 3 runs behind.

    3B- Rookie Ben Williamson leads the way, 1 run ahead of the just-mentioned Clement. He’s been good fielding balls hit both to his left and right and has looked the part of a solid defender.

    SS- Taylor Walls not only has the most Runs Saved by a shortstop this season. He has the most Runs Saved by shortstops over the last 5 seasons, amazing given that he’s never played more than 100 games there in a season. He’s crushing the field in 2025, 10 runs better than closest AL counterpart, Jeremy Peña.

    LF- Steven Kwan, a two-time Fielding Bible Award winner, has a 5-run lead on Wyatt Langford for No. 1 in the AL. Kwan’s value has come not just from making catches but also from throws. His 6 assists without a cutoff man are already a career high.

    CF- Ceddanne Rafaela is such a good defensive player that the Red Sox moved the 2024 MLB center field leader in Runs Saved, Jarren Duran, to left field to allow Rafaela to play full-time there. Rafaela is tied for the MLB lead in Runs Saved in center field and has a 2-run edge on Julio Rodríguez for the AL lead.

    RF- Adolis García had a rough year in right field in 2024 but has bounced back in a big way, going from -5 to 10 Runs Saved. He has a 2-run lead for No. 1 in the AL over newcomer to the position Cam Smith and 2024 Fielding Bible Award winner Wilyer Abreu.

    C- Carlos Narváez has been a defensive star as a rookie for the Red Sox this season, matching Bailey in Runs Saved and leading the closest AL catchers, Adley Rutschman and Alejandro Kirk, by 4 runs.

    P- Max Fried won Fielding Bible Awards in 2020 and 2021, so we’re used to seeing defensive excellence from him, regardless of what team he’s on. He’s currently 1 run better than Luis Severino for the AL lead.

  • Giants Second Basemen Have Not Had A Season Like This

    Giants Second Basemen Have Not Had A Season Like This

    Photo: John McCoy/Icon Sportswire

    I wasn’t going to publish this story today.

    After learning that San Francisco Giants second baseman Tyler Fitzgerald got sent to the minors on Monday afternoon, I thought for a little while that the point of this piece was now moot.

    But then Casey Schmitt, in his first start of the season at second base, made a couple of nice plays on Monday night and I realized what I’d written still made sense.

    So here goes …

    Ask a Giants fan about a long streak that the team is going through and they’ll likely lament the team’s lack of a 30-home run hitter. Barry Bonds had the last such season for them in 2004.

    But there’s another run that goes back longer than that.

    In 2003, the combination of Ray Durham, Neifi Pérez, Eric Young Sr., and Edgardo Alfonzo combined for 10 Runs Saved at second base for Giants. They haven’t finished a season with more than 10 Runs Saved at second base since then.

    The team has gone through many years of that position being a defensive hole. They’ve had 7 seasons in which their second basemen have combined for at least -10 Runs Saved.  

    Yes, there was a Gold Glove winner at second base in Joe Panik in 2016 (his single-season career-high was 6 Runs Saved, but other than that it’s largely been a rough go. In fact, from 2003 to 2024 Giants second basemen rank 28th in Runs Saved, better than only the Astros and Mets. From 2019 to 2024, only the A’s have fared worse. 

    But things have changed in 2025. Giants second basemen rank first in the majors with 15 Runs Saved.

    Most Defensive Runs Saved By Second Basemen – 2025 Season

    Team Runs Saved
    Giants 15
    Cubs 13
    Blue Jays 10
    Brewers 8
    Mariners 8
    Dodgers 8

    The signing of free agent shortstop Willy Adames moved Fitzgerald to second base, the position at which he had the most experience in the minor leagues. Though Fitzgerald hasn’t hit like he did last season, he’s provided standout value with his glove. His 8 Runs Saved are already more than any Giants second baseman has had in one season. 

    Fitzgerald excels on balls hit to his right. He’s converted 62 of 101 opportunities into outs, 6 outs more than his expected rate. Fitzgerald ranks 1st in how often he turns an opportunity on a ball hit to his right into an out despite rating in the bottom half of MLB in arm strength among second basemen. 

     

    Christian Koss has played a solid second base as well. He’s arguably better defensively than Fitzgerald and is adept at moving both left and right to make plays. 

     

    Koss had 5 Runs Saved in 26 games at second base and has as many Good Fielding Plays as Fitzgerald (6) has in 26 games. Koss has only 2 Defensive Misplays & Errors to Fitzgerald’s 9.

    * SIS Video Scouts award Good Fielding Plays to 30 different types of events  and Defensive Misplays to roughly 60 types of mistakes.

    Brett Wisely also filled in at second base when Fitzgerald was initially sent to the minors in late June and Koss was needed to play third base in place of Matt Chapman. He’s chipped in a Run Saved in 11 games there, giving him 6 in 98 games for his career.

    Now, with Koss out with a strained hamstring and the Giants needing some offensive punch in the lineup, Schmitt got the initial call over Wisely on Monday night and passed the first test.

    Schmitt has played 41 career games at second base and has 0 Runs Saved. He’s now a true utility infielder after playing mostly on the left side in the early part of his career. We’ll see if he can hold his end of the bargain up in this upcoming stretch. 

    The play of their second basemen is particularly important given that the Giants pitching staff ranks 4th in the number of ground balls it has given up. The team’s infield ranks 6th in how often it turns grounders and bunts into outs this season, a good percentage given that the shortstop, Adames, doesn’t have good defensive numbers. Chapman is terrific, of course, but he can’t do it all himself.

    So the next time a Giants fan talks to you about the team’s run of a lack of a 30-homer hitter continuing through this season, point out to them that there’s always hope, because a longer streak just might come to an end in 2025.

  • June’s Defensive Players of the Month

    June’s Defensive Players of the Month

    Mariners manager Dan Wilson says that Julio Rodríguez wants to be the best player in baseball.

    That’s a tough hill to climb given the competition of Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. For now Rodríguez will have to settle for being the best defensive player in baseball, at least for a month and maybe more.

    Rodríguez heads our list of Defensive Players of the Month for June. The month’s other honorees as top defenders are Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes and Dodgers shortstop Mookie Betts.

     ”He’s just made so many of those catches, covered a lot of ground in the outfield, and has really taken charge out there,” Wilson said before a recent game. “You really don’t understand how many runs that saves.”

    With all due respect to the Mariners manager, we are able to put a number on it.

    Rodríguez led all center fielders with 9 Runs Saved in June and ranks third at the position with 11 Runs Saved this season. The highlight was a home run robbery against Chris Taylor of the Angels, his 2nd home-run-robbing catch this season.

    Rodríguez had previously fared well in MLB’s suite of defensive stats but he’s never had a breakout season in Runs Saved until now.

    One of the biggest things for him is that he’s reduced the number of mistakes he’s made this season. Rodríguez had 17 Defensive Misplays & Errors in 131 games in 2024 but has only 7 through 83 games this season.

    * SIS has 60 categories of Defensive Misplays that it gives to fielders for things such as slipping, dropping a transfer on a double play, or overthrowing a cutoff man.

    Ke’Bryan Hayes

    Hayes led third basemen with 7 Runs Saved during the month. Hayes, who won the Fielding Bible Award for defensive excellence in 2021 and 2023, seems to be the frontrunner for the honor just past the midway point of the season. His 11 Runs Saved lead the field by a comfortable margin. Ernie Clement and Caleb Durbin are second among third basemen with 6 Runs Saved.

    Hayes has saved at least 10 Runs in each of the last 5 seasons. He’s already surpassed his 2024 totals for Runs Saved (10) and Good Fielding Plays (10, 3 more than last year). As has been key for him in the past, one area where Hayes stands out for playmaking is on balls hit to his right (like this one), often along the third base line.

    Mookie Betts

    Betts tallied 6 Runs Saved in June, one shy of Trevor Story for the most by a shortstop. Just past the season’s midpoint, Betts and Nick Allen of the Braves look like frontrunners for the NL Gold Glove Award. Allen has 9 Runs Saved this season, one more than Betts. Both are chasing Rays shortstop Taylor Walls, who leads all shortstops with 18 Runs Saved.

    The biggest thing that Betts has done at shortstop is similar to what Rodríguez has done in center field: cut down on his mistakes. He had 19 Defensive Misplays & Errors in 65 games there last season. He has 9 through 77 games entering July.

    The Dodgers coaching staff has also done its part in helping Betts acclimate to a new position (remember, he’s won 5 Fielding Bible Awards in right field). The Dodgers have been credited with 7 Runs Saved for how they’ve positioned Betts, tied for the most for any team in positioning its shortstop. That has allowed Betts to do what he does best (click the link to see what we mean).

  • Stat of the Week: Which Team Positions Its Outfielders Best?

    Stat of the Week: Which Team Positions Its Outfielders Best?

    Photo: Steven King/Icon Sportswire

    You’ve heard of the game-saving defensive play, right?

    How about game-saving defensive positioning?

    Go back about a month to the bottom of the eighth inning at Busch Stadium in a matchup between the Cardinals and Tigers. The score was tied with two men on and two outs. Pedro Pagés hit a 107-MPH line drive to right center that looked like it could be a go-ahead hit. But center fielder Javier Báez sprinted over to make the running catch. The Tigers went ahead in the top of the ninth inning and won the game.

    You can see that catch here.

    But what you don’t see in watching the TV broadcast was how the Tigers put Báez in position to make the play. This image from MLB helps provide a better understanding. The filled in black dot shows where he was stationed prior to the pitch.

    By our calculations, balls hit to that spot at that speed in the last two years have been caught 43% of the time. But that out probability jumps to 95% when we know where Baez was positioned.

    This was one of several examples of how the Tigers outfield has been the best positioned in baseball this season. They lead the majors with 12 Outfield Positioning Runs Saved.

    We explained this in a couple of recent articles and will reiterate it again here. Pre-2013, SIS awarded positioning Runs Saved credit to the player. That credit now goes to the team as with the advent of shifting and positioning cards, the team has more control over where its players play.

    The data we collect allows us to establish:

    A) An overall out probability for a ball hit to a certain spot at a determined velocity without knowing where the fielder is positioned

    B) An out probability for which we do know where the fielder is positioned.

    The formula calculates the difference between A and B and converts it to a run value based on the characteristics of the batted ball. That value is credited to the defensive team rather than the player.

    This happens whether the play is successfully completed or not, because positioning can be good even when a play is not made.

    In other words, if we know a fly ball hit at 107 miles per hour to a designated spot Y is an out 43% of the time overall, but 95% of the time when the outfielder is positioned in location Z, then the team gets credit for improving the out probability by 52%, which is worth some fraction of a run. That’s the example with which we led this article.

    Most Runs Saved – Outfield Positioning

    2025 Season

    Team Runs Saved
    Tigers 12
    Guardians 8
    Braves 7
    Rays 5
    White Sox 5

    The Tigers’ success isn’t new. They led the majors with 18 outfield positioning runs two years ago before slipping to 2 such Runs Saved last season. We should note too that this year’s results are not the product of high volume. Tigers outfielders have faced the 20th-most balls hit in the air.

    Here are a couple other examples of plays from 2025 in which positioning resulted in a significant payoff for the Tigers.

    This ball was tagged 108 MPH and Riley Greene’s positioning in left field upped the out probability from 45 to 93%. You can see why. He barely had to move from where he was playing.

    Sometimes positioning and playmaking go hand in hand. On this ball hit by Drew Waters of the Royals, right fielder Kerry Carpenter goes deep to make a tough catch.

    Carpenter’s positioning upped the out probability of that play from 20% to 41%. Carpenter gets credit for the remaining 59% for making the catch that resulted in an out.

    Though the positioning Runs Saved totals are relatively small, the numbers do matter. The Tigers rank 8th in Defensive Runs Saved overall.

    They rank 19th in the skill components of Runs Saved but rank 1st in combined Runs Saved from infield and outfield positioning.

    The team is in first place in the AL Central and its outfielders can rejoice as they did in the picture atop this article. Good positioning is the key to their defense.

  • Stat of the Week: Which Team’s Infield Defense Has Been Best?

    Stat of the Week: Which Team’s Infield Defense Has Been Best?

    Photo: John Cordes/Icon Sportswire

    The naysayers will tell you that the Pirates are worth watching once every five days, only on the days that their phenom, Paul Skenes, pitches.

    But for as bad as the Pirates have been, and it’s been a rough year in Pittsburgh, there’s actually something that the team excels at. They lead MLB in Defensive Runs Saved from their infielders.

    It’s actually not even that close.

    Most Runs Saved From Infielders

    Team Runs Saved
    Pirates 36
    Dodgers 26
    Cubs 24
    Braves 23
    Rangers 21

    That defensive excellence starts with third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes, who leads the position with 9 Runs Saved. Over the last four seasons, Hayes’ 65 Runs Saved are 22 better than the next-closest third baseman, Ryan McMahon.

    Hayes is good at making the hard plays look routine and has excelled at turning balls hit down the third base line into outs this season, which was also true in 2022 and 2023. Hayes has won 2 Fielding Bible Awards and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he won another.

    The other top defender within the Pirates infield is Jared Triolo, who won the NL Gold Glove for utility infielders in 2024. Triolo has 3 Runs Saved at second base, 2 at third base, 2 at first base and -1 at shortstop this season, giving him a combined 6 Runs Saved. If he played second base full time, he’d probably be among the league leaders. He has 10 career Runs Saved in 71 games there.

    But what has led to the Pirates doing so well at turning ground balls into outs (they rank 3rd in that stat behind the Rangers and Braves) and leading in Runs Saved is the defensive positioning of their infield. The Pirates have 18 infield positioning Runs Saved, the most of any team.

    They’ve been particularly well positioned when playing what we call a partial shift,* They rank 8th in terms of how often they’ve used a shift against a batted ball but tied for 1st in infield positioning Runs Saved from shifts.

    * Partial shifts are ones in which the second baseman or shortstop is near second base and other infielders have significantly adjusted positioning as well.

     The Pirates have a veteran second baseman in Adam Frazier and a shortstop in Isiah Kiner-Falefa who have been reliable defenders in the past. They’re players who may not have the most range but, if positioned well, are going to make plays. That’s what’s happened this season.

    Frazier has 2 Runs Saved from the Range & Throwing component of Runs Saved but the Pirates have saved 5 runs in how they’ve positioned him, tied for the most for any second baseman in MLB.

    Similarly, Kiner-Falefa also has 2 Range & Throwing Runs Saved but the Pirates have 6 Runs Saved from positioning him, one run shy of the most in MLB (the Padres have 7 Runs Saved in how they’ve positioned Xander Bogaerts).

    Pre-2013, SIS awarded positioning Runs Saved credit to the player. That credit now goes to the team as with the advent of shifting and positioning cards, the team has more control over where its players play. If we gave that credit to the player now, both Frazier and Kiner-Falefa would rank among the leaders in Runs Saved at their position.

    In terms of what we’re specifically talking about, here are two good examples of infield positioning by the Pirates involving Frazier and Kiner-Falefa (here and here). The first example is a play that’s routine because of where Frazier is stationed. The other is a tougher play, but one made possible by how the Pirates positioned Kiner-Falefa and the scoop by Emmanuel Valdez, who is part of a committee effort at first base that has produced 3 Runs Saved.

    The shame of all this is that the Pirates are 30-46 and in last place in the NL Central entering Friday. The team is averaging an MLB-worst 3.2 runs per game and their infield has the lowest OPS in MLB (.616) by 26 points.

    For as good as the infield defense has been in trying to make up for the team’s deficiencies, the rest of the team’s defense has been problematic. The Pirates otherwise have a combined -18 Runs Saved this season.

  • Stat of the Week: MLB’s Top Defensive Rookies

    Stat of the Week: MLB’s Top Defensive Rookies

    By now you’ve probably seen the ridiculous home run robbery by Athletics rookie center fielder Denzel Clarke on June 9.

    In his first 18 games, Clarke reached over the wall twice to rob home runs and made some other nice plays too. He’s already totaled 7 Defensive Runs Saved, which is a heck of a way to start his career. Clarke is extra valuable defensively to the A’s because Oakland’s other primary center fielder this season, J.J. Bleday, had -7 Runs Saved.

    Clarke is tied for the second-most Runs Saved among rookies this season. He’s not the only one to make a big defensive impact. He just happens to be the one who’s gotten the most attention.

    Which other rookies have been good? Let’s fill you in.

    Player Team (Position) Runs Saved
    Javier Sanoja Marlins Utility 9
    Denzel Clarke A’s CF 7
    Carlos Narváez Red Sox C 7
    Kameron Misner Rays OF 6
    Cam Smith Astros RF 6
    Hayden Senger Mets C 5
    Caleb Durbin Brewers 3B/2B 4
    Matt Shaw Cubs 3B 4

    Javier Sanoja has been Mr. Versatility for the Marlins and leads all rookies with 9 Runs Saved when you combine his stats at each position. He’s played second base, left field, shortstop, center field, third base, an inning at first base, and even five innings in mop-up duty as a pitcher. Second base has been where he’s been most valuable, totaling 5 Runs Saved.

    Carlos Narváez is another older rookie. He’s 26 and got his opportunity when Connor Wong was injured at the start of the season. Right now, Narváez is the best all-around rookie position player. He has an .814 OPS and is tied for the lead among catchers with his 7 Runs Saved. His best value has come in pitch framing, but he’s also added a little for playmaking and in defending stolen base attempts.

    Cam Smith has gotten a chance to play every day in right field for the Astros. There haven’t been a lot of flashy plays, but he’s done well at turning batted balls into outs. He ranks 5th among right fielders with his 6 Runs Saved.

    Kameron Misner is a 27-year-old rookie who had played a lot of center field and a little right field and left field. Four of his 6 Runs Saved have come in center field, but those 2 Runs Saved in right field are important too. The Rays have the most Runs Saved there despite not having had a regular player in the early part of the season. 

    Hayden Senger made quite a good defensive impression as a backup catcher for the Mets while Francisco Alvarez was hurt. In 13 games he threw out 3 of 5 potential basestealers and was a good pitch framer and pitch blocker. The Mets went 7-3 in his 10 starts and he’s currently with Triple-A Syracuse serving as insurance against any Mets catching injuries.

    Caleb Durbin ascended to the majors from a Division III college (Washington University of St. Louis) after being traded twice during his time in the minor leagues. The Brewers have put him at third base after moving Joey Ortiz to shortstop and while the offensive numbers aren’t there, he’s shown good skill at the position. He has 5 Runs Saved there (-1 at second base).

     Similarly, Matt Shaw was given the chance to be the Cubs third baseman this year and though his offense has come slow, he’s represented well defensively, tallying 4 Runs Saved.

    Honorable mentions to White sox infielder Chase Meidroth and Mariners third baseman Ben Williamson. Each has 3 Runs Saved in 2025. Meidroth has been credited with 6 Good Fielding Plays at shortstop against only 3 Defensive Misplays and Errors. Most shortstops have more Misplays and Errors than Good Plays. Williamson has been credited with 9 Good Fielding Plays, 5th-most at third base this season.

  • Ways Of The Rays: Right Fielders Making Plays

    Ways Of The Rays: Right Fielders Making Plays

    Per our statistics, the best outfield defense this season has been played by Tampa Bay Rays right fielders.

    But there’s something unusual about this, just as there often seems to be something unusual about the successful Rays teams. Rather than the work of one player, this right field performance has been a group effort. 

    Eight players have played right field for Tampa Bay this season. Four of them have played at least 15 games there and they’re the ones who have combined for the MLB-best Defensive 12 Runs Saved. None have played more than 22 games in right field.  

    Projected starter Josh Lowe strained an oblique on Opening Day and didn’t play another game until May 15. It took a village to fill in for him and that group, which includes José Caballero, Jake Mangum, and Kameron Misner, was impressive in Lowe’s absence.

    This is how the Rays function. They don’t have the big money to pay an Aaron Judge or even a George Springer. So they build depth and versatility and find players who didn’t get to the major leagues right away.

    Caballero has done the Ben Zobrist thing and then some. He’s the superutility man, having played second base, shortstop, third base, left field, center field, and right field, the latter for the first time in his pro career.

     

    Mangum is a 29-year-old rookie who has started between 8 and 13 games at the three outfield spots. He’s got speed (10 stolen bases) and it looks like he can play a little defense too.

    Misner is a 27-year-old rookie who has primarily played center field in place of injured Jonny DeLuca but has played both of the other outfield spots too. He’s got 4 Runs Saved in center field and 2 in right field.

     

    Each of those plays above was judged as a “Good Fielding Play,” as tracked by our Data Scouts. The Caballero catch was a home run robbery, which added 1.6 runs to the value of making the play. 

    Rays right fielders are tied for the lead at the position with 13 Good Fielding Plays. Just as important, they also have 3 Defensive Misplays & Errors, the fewest of any team. 

    Rays Right Fielders in 2025

    Good Fielding Plays Runs Saved
    Josh Lowe 1 5
    José Caballero 4 4
    Kameron Misner 5 2
    Jake Mangum 3 1

    Since Lowe returned he’s gotten most of the playing time there and he’s been good too. 

    Lowe has 5 Runs Saved, which isn’t unusual for him. He had 6 Runs Saved there in 2023, though he slipped to -2 last season. His best defensive moment was this play, which earned a “What a throw from Lowe” from Marlins broadcaster Rod Allen.

     

    Lowe’s return coincided with the Rays getting hot. Tampa Bay is 17-4 when he starts this season. 

    But it’s fair to say what the Rays got both in his presence and in his absence has been highly valuable. The Rays haven’t missed a beat at the position. Once again, it’s typical Tampa Bay Rays, which means getting things done in unexpected ways and winning regardless of how they do it. The team as a whole has done it too. It ranks 4th overall in Runs Saved this season.

    For more Rays talk, check out the latest episode of The Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast.

  • Which Hitters are Teams Positioning Best Against?

    Which Hitters are Teams Positioning Best Against?

    Photos: Allan Dranberg (Semien), Joe Robbins (Raleigh), Rich Graessle (Arraez), Leslie Plaza Johnson (Adell)/ Icon Sportswire

    If you’ve watched baseball the last few years, you’ve inevitably seen the shot of a player pulling a card out of his back pocket, studying it, and then going back to his position.

    The cards, customized at the major league level for each pitcher and each batter, identify how far and in which direction a fielder moves off a starting point that was likely designated before the first game of a series.

    I’ve seen this for long enough now that I’m curious against which hitters the cards have been most successful.

    At SIS, we actually have a way to identify that. The out probabilities we use in establishing a player’s Defensive Runs Saved include a value specific to positioning.

    Here are the hitters against whom teams have gotten the most positioning Runs Saved per 100 balls in play from the start of last season through the end of May 2025.

    Player Runs Saved Per 100
    Marcus Semien 2.5
    Cal Raleigh 2.5
    Luis Arraez 2.4
    Jo Adell 2.4
    Freddy Fermin 2.2
    Matt Olson 2.1
    Mark Vientos 2.1
    Hunter Renfroe 2.1

    Simply put, the data we collect allows us to establish:

    A) An overall out probability for a ball hit to a certain spot at a determined velocity without knowing where the fielder is positioned

    B) An out probability for which we do know where the fielder is positioned.

    The formula calculates the difference between A and B and converts it to a run value based on the characteristics of the batted ball. That value is credited to the defensive team rather than the player.

    This happens whether or not the play is successfully completed, because positioning can be good even when a play is not made.

    In other words, if we know a ground ball hit at X miles per hour to a designated spot Y is an out 50% of the time overall, but 70% of the time when the shortstop is positioned in location Z, then the team gets credit for improving the out probability by 20%, which is worth some fraction of a run.

    To illustrate, here’s a play from earlier this week, Jerar Encarnacion’s game-ending 101-mile-per-hour line drive to perfectly-positioned Padres first baseman Luis Arraez.

    The characteristics of this batted ball were such that it had a 59% probability of being an out without knowing where Arraez was positioned. But with Arraez where he was, the out probability was 100%. Arraez gets no Defensive Runs Saved credit for making the catch but the Padres get a credit for improving the out probability by 41 percentage points (from 59% to 100%).

    I want to examine a few of the players from that leaderboard more in-depth to give you a sense of what we’re talking about here.

    Marcus Semien

    I’ve seen Marcus Semien pop up on a couple of “unluckiest hitter” lists the last couple of years as his numbers have collapsed since the start of 2024. But I think there’s something more to it than that.

    Semien has played in almost every one of his team’s regular season games since 2018. That provides a lot of data from which to make educated guesses on where Semien is going to hit balls. For the last year-plus they’ve made good decisions.

    Here’s a good-looking double play that the Giants turned on Semien in April. Our calculation is that Willy Adames’ positioning at shortstop increased the Giants’ out probability on this ball from 20% to 61%.

     

    That’s a hefty credit that ends up worth about one-third of a run. There were only two other ground balls hit by Semien this season on which a team got more positioning Runs Saved than that. One of them was this one, after which Semien had to be wondering what the heck just happened. The Rays’ positioning improved the out probability by 75%!

    But there was a good reason that play happened. The coaching staff knows that Semien hits 87% of ground balls and short line drives to the left of second base. Thus, their second baseman plays close to the base, which gives him a chance to make that play. Here’s a spray chart of his last 120 ground balls entering Wednesday.

    These spray charts are rather rudimentary and just look at the hitter’s tendencies. Team charts are more sophisticated and factor in the pitcher (and sometimes the count) too. For ground balls and short line drives, we consider the last 120 hit. For balls hit to the outfield, we look at the last 135.

    But in this case, the hitter’s tendencies give you a good look at what he’s going to do.

    Those plays are admittedly at the higher end when it comes to team credit. Most plays aren’t like that. A more basic example of good positioning against Semien would be this fly ball struck pretty well to right center field but run down with ease by Brenton Doyle, who was playing 331 feet deep and a little bit to the right of second base. The positioning allowed him to make up for a slightly delayed jump. It upped the out probability of the play by 22%.

     

    Semien had a career-worst .250 BABIP last season. He’s at .242 in 2025.

    Cal Raleigh

    Cal Raleigh is having an amazing season despite the fact that the cards are stacked against him (you had to figure that pun was coming, right?).

    Here’s a play against the Blue Jays where they positioned their right fielder about as well as they could, so much so that he was able to get to the ball and throw Raleigh out at second base. Everyone wins at least a little bit here. Raleigh gets a hit. The right fielder gets an assist. And the Blue Jays get 47% (0.47 plays) credit for putting the right fielder in a good spot.

     

    A look at Raleigh’s last 135 outfield flies and liners shows he hits the ball toward the right field line enough that defenses need to be ready for it.

     

    Here’s another instance with Raleigh where the team gets a reward for positioning even when the player makes an error. The Giants got this one right. It’s not their fault that Tyler Fitzgerald didn’t field this ball.

     

    It’s weird to say that teams are defending Raleigh well given the year that he’s having.  But what we’re seeing is that Raleigh is getting more hits than he usually does (a .278 BABIP entering Thursday) and that’s attributable to fielder skill issues rather than positioning ones. Perhaps another subject for another time.

    Luis Arraez

    Just before a pitch, the Padres broadcast showed us how Pete Crow Armstrong was positioned well over towards left center field against Luis Arraez.

    And here’s what happened.

    Crow-Armstrong makes most catches without this kind of positioning help, but in this case, the Cubs got a 52% credit for upping the out probability of this ball from 19% to 71%.

    Arraez’s spray chart is different from Raleigh’s. The Cubs want to give Crow-Armstrong a chance to get those balls in the left center gap so they play him accordingly, with Arraez’s tendencies helping to guide the decision.

    And because turnabout is fair play, here’s an example of Giants first baseman Dominic Smith being placed just right for an Arraez line drive and doing to Arraez what Arraez did to them a few days ago.

     

    The spray chart shows that Smith was in the right spot based on Arraez’s grounder/short liner tendencies. While he doesn’t hit more balls down the line than he does towards the hole, those balls often end up as doubles so you want to account for them a little bit more.

    Arraez has a .279 BABIP on balls hit in the air this season (.016 on fly balls!) He’s never finished a year below .372.

    Jo Adell

    Here’s an example of everything coming together. The fielder makes a good play on a ground ball and is rewarded (as is the player who catches the throw). But that play almost surely doesn’t happen if the scouting report isn’t heeded.

    Anthony Volpe’s positioning on Jo Adell changed the out probability by 25%, turning it from a 24% out probability to a 49% one – basically making this a 50-50 play for which Volpe was on the right side.

    Adell’s grounder/short liner spray chart is such that the shortstop is going to cheat to the 5-6 hole a lot.

    Some people may say that Adell’s issue is that he strikes out too much. But he’s also a very predictable hitter when he does make contact, especially on the ground. And he’s paying for it – he’s hitting less than .200 on ground balls over the last two seasons. MLB average is .245.

    We’ll take a look at which hitters are good at beating what the card says for positioning sometime in the near future.