Category: MLB

  • Going Deep with Kyle Isbel, Who Goes Deep Better Than Anyone

    Going Deep with Kyle Isbel, Who Goes Deep Better Than Anyone

    Photo: Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire

    One of the things we liked about talking to Royals center fielder Kyle Isbel was that he takes an analytical approach to playing center field without explicitly saying he’s taking an analytic-based approach. He processes data points – ones he estimates as he sees them.

    “Being able to read swings and the different pitches guys throw, you can get certain outcomes based on certain guy’s swing paths,” Isbel said in our podcast interview last week. “You can pretty much see where a ball’s going before a guy even makes contact.”

    The play on which Isbel gained the most value towards his Defensive Runs Saved this season was not a jumping, sliding, or diving catch, but one on which he got a great jump. Statcast measured him as being 7.7 feet ahead of the average major league center fielder within the first 1.5 seconds of Luis Robert Jr. making contact.

    That allowed Isbel to turn a ball with a 29% out probability into an out.

    Being able to do that and do it well is vital for any MLB center fielder. Isbel is one of the best outfielders in baseball when it comes to covering ground with immediacy. By Statcast’s jump stats he’s nearly 3 feet ahead of the average center fielder within the first 1.5 seconds of ball hitting bat.

    And as he keeps running (in a manner honed by Olympian Maurice Greene this spring), he’s still processing and analyzing estimated data points.

    “The wind is a factor, the sun is a factor,” he said. “How you perceive the ball. How does it spin?”

    That last one explains why Isbel doesn’t rank as well in another aspect of what Statcast tracks, routes.

    Watch Isbel make catches and you’ll see that sometimes he’s taking indirect paths to the ball. He goes back or comes in first and then does other things second. Relative to other center fielders it seems that there’s more in-the-moment adjustment going on.

    By Statcast’s measures, he takes among the least direct routes to a ball of any center fielder. And that doesn’t bother him.

    “You can’t necessarily see the spin off the bat at contact,” Isbel said. ”You can just kind of see the direction, so as you make your move in the direction, you figure out how the ball is spinning and that’s how your route is getting altered. The ball’s not hit straight every single time.”

    “Back or in is the first thing that pops into your head. You can see if a guy gets jammed. You can see if he hits it well, takes a big swing. The more you really watch, I try to do it in BP every day, just watch a guy’s swing. See the ball flight. Is it top spun off the bat, is it side spun, is it back spun? Did he get everything into it?”

    Isbel has the 3rd-most Defensive Runs Saved among center fielders since the start of the 2023 season.

    Most Defensive Runs Saved – CF since start of 2023

    Player Runs Saved
    Daulton Varsho 20
    Kevin Kiermaier 19
    Kyle Isbel 18
    Johan Rojas 14
    Brenton Doyle 13

    That’s driven largely by how well he’s done catching balls hit to the deepest part of the ballpark and making plays like the one he made against Robert.

    Entering Tuesday, Isbel had caught 87 of 100 balls classified as “deep” by our data tracking in the last 2 seasons. Based on out probabilities, the average center fielder would have caught 75.

    He’s 12 percentage points better than expectations. There’s no center fielder better among the 40 who have had the most opportunities since the start of 2023.

    Biggest Differential – Out Rate vs Expected Out Rate – CF Since Start of 2023

    Player Out Rate Expected Rate Difference
    Kyle Isbel 87% 75% 12%
    Daulton Varsho 93% 82% 11%
    Kevin Kiermaier 90% 82% 8%
    Johan Rojas 86% 80% 6%

    Stats through games of April 29, 2024

    The other thing we liked about talking to Isbel was that he played along with some of our questions. He opened the interview by sharing his defense origin story, playing “Impossibles” with his father as a kid (he’d have to try to make difficult catches). And he closed it by indulging us on a hypothetical.

    Isbel has a heavily tattooed left arm and says he’s done with body art. But what if he added one to commemorate his defense. What would it be?

    “I would get a lock,” he said. “That’s what comes to me when I play center field. If you get the ball over here, you’re out. It doesn’t matter where it’s at. I’m gonna lock it down. That’s just my mindset.”

    He’s got the mindset. The analytical approach is the key that unlocks the skill.

  • The Running Reds Are Even Better in 2024

    The Running Reds Are Even Better in 2024

    Photo: Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire

    The Reds took great advantage of changes to MLB’s basestealing rules last season. They finished with 190 stolen bases, 24 more than the next-closest team.

    However, the Reds ranked only 14th in our Net Bases Gained baserunning stat, which measures the combination of stolen bases, success rate, and other baserunning elements, such as advancing an extra base on hits and doing other positive things on the bases.

    One reason why the Reds did not rank well in Net Bases Gained was that they ranked 25th in bases advanced on wild pitches, passed balls, balks, sacrifice flies, and defensive indifference.

    But in 2024, the Reds have ramped up their baserunning game. They enter Friday with an MLB-best 45 stolen bases in 24 games (Elly De La Cruz has an MLB-leading 15). But they also rank 3rd in the majors with 36 bases advanced on wild pitches, passed balls, balks, etc.

    They’ve gone from middle of the pack in that all-encompassing Net Bases Gained to No. 1.

    It’s easy to point to De La Cruz’s stolen base total or the 6 other players with at least 4 stolen bases as important. But there are 2 Reds who haven’t stolen a base this season who have also contributed to the team’s baserunning success.

    Catcher Tyler Stephenson, a decidedly negative baserunner last season, has already recorded 7 of those baserunning advances in 21 games. He tallied 10 in 142 games in all of 2023.

    Additionally, Stephenson has batted with a man on first and no outs or one out 17 times and not hit into a double play. He grounded into 16 double plays last season. As a team, the Reds have grounded into only 9 double plays, 2nd-fewest in MLB.

    Another player not known as a burner on the bases, designated hitter Nick Martini already has 5 bases advanced via wild pitch, passed ball, etc. He didn’t have any in the last 2 seasons he played in the majors (2021 and 2023).

    Shout-out to some of the other teams off to strong baserunning starts:

    The Orioles rank 2nd in Net Bases Gained with Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg tied for 8th individually. They are a combined 9-for-9 basestealing this season. The Orioles are 20-for-21 in that department. The Royals rank 3rd with basestealing being the primary reason why. Kansas City ranks 2nd with 27 steals in 31 attempts.

    The Diamondbacks and Twins, who rank 4th and 5th in Net Bases Gained, respectively, have been better baserunning teams than basestealing teams. Arizona is the one team with more advances on wild pitches, passed balls, balks, etc than the Reds. It has 48. Corbin Carroll is tied for 3rd in Net Bases Gained so far in 2024. He was the runaway leader in 2023.

    The Twins are a weird case. They rank 5th in Net Bases Gained despite having an MLB-low 5 stolen bases this season. When they’ve had baserunners, they’ve done a good job of taking bases and avoiding outs. But getting baserunners to begin with is the bigger issue. The team has the 4th-lowest on-base percentage in MLB this season.

    Net Baserunning Gain Leaders

  • Stat of the Week: AL Central Doing It With Defense

    Stat of the Week: AL Central Doing It With Defense

    As someone who likes to write about defense, this is a little bit of a challenging time for me, because it’s hard to find much meaning in small sample sizes. Defensive Runs Saved isn’t necessarily meant to be an evaluative tool within the first 10 to 15 percent of the season.

    But we can still find instances in which good defense has mattered. Just look at the three teams in the AL Central that rank in the top 7 in Runs Saved.

    Royals (2nd)

    The Royals enter today ranked 2nd in the majors in Defensive Runs Saved. What’s propelled them is their defense up the middle.

    Two years ago, Bobby Witt Jr. ranked as the worst shortstop in the majors in Runs Saved. He still rated below-average per Defensive Runs Saved last season, but made considerable improvements (some metrics rated him above-average last season). This season, he’s setting an early standard.

    The Royals’ infielders have turned ground balls and bunts into outs at the highest rate in MLB, with Witt leading the way no matter what’s in his path. He leads shortstops with 5 Runs Saved.

    In the outfield, center fielder Kyle Isbel has continued his fine defensive work from 2023. Isbel doesn’t hit a lot, but thus far he’s done what the Royals have needed him to do: catch enough fly balls and line drives to have an impact.

    Combine 2023 and 2024 and Isbel ranks 3rd among center fielders in Defensive Runs Saved.

    Meanwhile, catcher, long held down by Salvador Perez, has turned into a timeshare between Perez and Freddy Fermin, the latter being a better pitch framer and the former typically being good at throwing out baserunners. Between the two of them they’ve allowed only 8 stolen base attempts all season. And Perez’s past issues with pitch framing haven’t manifested yet. The Royals’ pitchers have fared well with both.

    Guardians (3rd)

    The Guardians have last year’s Platinum Glove and Fielding Bible Award winner, Andrés Giménez, and he’s been doing as he typically does at second base. But other than that, you have to look a little deeper in order to ascertain what’s going on there.

    For one thing, the Guardians’ outfielders have combined for an MLB-high 8 assists. That’s the most in MLB. The average team has 2.5. Ramón Laureano’s 4 assists (though a couple have been awkwardly attained) are more than 25 teams have gotten from their outfield this season.

    The Guardians have also done well – at least through 19 games – in another aspect that we measure. They are tied for the major league lead when we combine their infield and outfield positioning Runs Saved totals. Score one early on for the team’s coaching staff (and probably their analytics department too).

    The Tigers (T-6th)

    Our timing on this isn’t great given that the Tigers made 3 errors yesterday, but let’s not let one bad game get in the way of some good work here.

    The Tigers have turned the 2nd-highest rate of balls hit in the air into outs of any defense in MLB (73%). And they’ve turned grounders and bunts into outs at the 7th-highest rate. If you’re wondering why the Tigers have the lowest BABIP allowed in the majors by a healthy margin, that’s why (.244, 14 points better than the next-closest team).

    Additionally, the Tigers have a pair of home run robberies, which count significantly in Defensive Runs Saved because these plays literally save runs. On March 30, Parker Meadows brought this one back from White Sox catcher Martin Maldonado. On April 9, Riley Greene snared a would-be homer from Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes. The Tigers won a close game in both instances.

    The good D has helped the Tigers to a 10-9 start despite an offense that ranks in the bottom 5 of the American League in runs scored and the slash line stats.

  • Stat of the Week: Scouting Home Plate Umpires and Their Tendencies

    Stat of the Week: Scouting Home Plate Umpires and Their Tendencies

    Photo: David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire

    If you’re a regular viewer of Yankees, Phillies, Cubs, Athletics or White Sox broadcast crews this season, you might have seen and heard the broadcasters provide a scouting report on the home plate umpire.

    The information from those scouting reports comes from our company. We provide them with heat maps and data points on strike-calling tendencies. The primary questions we answer with that information are:

    How often is a pitch thrown to a certain area called a strike and how does that compare to other umpires?

    For example, here’s what the Phillies’ broadcast on NBC Philadelphia ran after Trea Turner took an outside pitch that home plate umpire Alfonso Márquez called a strike a few days ago.

    Alfonso Marquez tendencies - a small strike zone with one exception, wide outside corner for RH Batters

    From a broader perspective, SIS divides credit for called strikes among the catcher, umpire, pitcher, and batter through a process that you can read about here. In doing so, we created two metrics: Extra Strikes Per 150 Called Pitches and Strike Zone Runs Saved, with the latter being calculated to provide a run value based on the raw number of extra strikes called.

    This allows us to gauge an umpire’s tendency to call more or fewer strikes than expected. An umpire who calls a lot more strikes than expected has a high Strike Zone Runs Saved total.

    Note that we’re not exploring the idea of correct call versus incorrect call. We’re looking at how each MLB umpire compares to other umpires in strike-calling. And with more detailed data, we can ascertain whether their strike zones are bigger or smaller heightwise and narrower or wider lengthwise.

    Last season we wrote an article about how Doug Eddings and Bill Miller have called considerably more strikes than expected dating to the first season we tracked for umpire tendencies, 2010.

    Here are the umpires with the most Strike Zone Runs Saved since the start of the 2022 season. You can think of them as umpires who tend to call a good deal more strikes than expected when looking at all MLB umpires’ strike-calling tendencies.

    Most Strike Zone Runs Saved – Since 2022

    Márquez, despite that odd strike call against Turner, ranks closer to the other end of called strike tendency leaderboards.

    Here are the umpires with the fewest Strike Zone Runs Saved since the start of the 2022 season. You can think of them as umpires who tend to call considerably fewer strikes than expected when taking into account all MLB umpires’ strike-calling tendencies.

    Fewest Strike Zone Runs Saved – Since 2022

    If you’re watching one of our partner’s telecasts this season, we hope you enjoy the added perspective this umpire information brings. It gives you another way to look at how the human element – that of not all umpires being the same when it comes to calling balls and strikes – impacts the sport.

     

  • Stat of the Week: Trey Lipscomb Makes A Good First Impression

    Stat of the Week: Trey Lipscomb Makes A Good First Impression

    Early this season baseball fans are celebrating big starts at the plate from Mookie Betts, Juan Soto, and Bobby Witt Jr. 

     But what about recognizing a good start in the field?

     It’s an oft-said baseballism that when you’re newly in a game, the ball finds you. The ball has found Nationals third baseman Trey Lipscomb a lot. In his first 3 major league games, Lipscomb has already handled 15 chances cleanly.

     That’s busy for a third baseman. Ke’Bryan Hayes led the position in range factor last season. He had a few three-game stretches last season like the one Lipscomb just did, but his range factor last season was an average of just under 3 chances per game.

     Now you may ask why we’re bringing up an unknown rookie on a 1-3 team that may finish at the bottom of the NL East this season. Fair question. 

     It’s easy to get excited by the superduperstars and the hyped rookies, like Jackson Chourio and Wyatt Langford. But part of the fun of baseball is about the under-the-radar guys who might catch some people by surprise.

     And while maybe Lipscomb won’t be Hayes or Nolan Arenado in the field, he could still be someone you’ll want to watch. Reds broadcaster and Hall of Famer Barry Larkin was impressed and said so during during the telecasts of the last 2 games of the Reds-Nationals series. Larkin’s a 3-time Gold Glove winner, so when he says a player has been “impressive,” we listen.

    We talked to Lipscomb last year after he won a minor league Gold Glove at third base in a season in which he played every infield position. He was among the Nationals’ final cuts after hitting .400 in spring training but was almost immediately recalled when Nick Senzel suffered an injury that required an IL stint.

    Lipscomb made a couple of nifty plays on ground balls, getting an initiation in the first inning of his first game at third base on a Christian Encarnacion-Strand grounder that took a high hop. Lipscomb handled it well and got the out.

    Lipscomb’s best play by Runs Saved was also against Encarnacion-Strand, one that he turned into a 5-4-3 double play. That play was worth nearly 3/4 of a Run Saved by itself.

    Lipscomb and Encarnacion-Strand had quite the batter-fielder relationship for a couple of days, with Lipscomb retiring Encarnacion-Strand 5 times.

    Lipscomb said in our interview that he wanted to be a fielder who dominated the routine plays. He had his share in his first 3 games and looked comfortable.

    But there were a couple of interesting challenges. On one play Lipscomb made, against Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates, he chose not to throw home in a situation in which he may have had a play at the plate. For those unaware, that decision is factored into Lipscomb’s Defensive Runs Saved. He gets a credit for retiring Reynolds at first base but also loses some run value within his Runs Saved for what we call “Giving Away a Lead Runner” in our cataloging of Defensive Misplays.

    Lipscomb also was unable to make a play on a hard-hit ball down the third base line. However, by diving and reaching the ball, Lipscomb held Santiago Espinal to a single rather than a double.

    Lipscomb got penalized within Defensive Runs Saved for not making the play on Espinal, but he gets a chunk of that run value back because he recorded a “Keeping The Ball In The Infield” in our tracking of more than 30 types of Good Fielding Plays.

    All in all, Lipscomb got through his first 3 days in the major leagues pretty well. He experienced a variety of plays and handled them. He wasn’t perfect but he made a strong impression.

    “The game of baseball is not about perfection,” Lipscomb said in our offseason conversation. “But if you can be as physically sound and mentally sound on defense as you can, it can help you a lot.

     So far so good. Let’s see if he can keep it up.

  • Stat of the Week: 2024’s NL Defensive Stories

    Stat of the Week: 2024’s NL Defensive Stories

    BY MARK SIMON

    With Opening Day approaching, we wanted to preview the 2024 season from a defensive perspective. So to be fair to all 30 teams, we’ve got a stat-driven theme or story to watch for each team. Here’s our look at the National League teams after we did our tour through the American League last week.

    Braves – The Braves were generally average or better through much of their defensive lineup last season. The big exception was shortstop, where Orlando Arcia and Vaughn Grissom didn’t do well. Arcia had -6 Runs Saved last season due to poor range numbers. He is back for another go and looking to return to the form he showed in 2018 when he totaled 8 Runs Saved.

    Brewers – The Brewers ranked 2nd in MLB in Defensive Runs Saved last season but they’ve got some unknowns on this year’s roster with Jackson Chourio in right field and Joey Ortiz at third base. Last year’s Brewers rookies played very well (Brice Turang, Joey Wiemer, Blake Perkins) and the defensive success of this year’s team may hinge on their young players again.

    CardinalsNolan Arenado went from overwhelmingly awesome to decidedly average at third base overnight (from 20 Runs Saved in 2022 to 0 in 2023). So the big question this season is whether he can return to the standard-setting level of excellence of years past.

    Cubs – The Cubs have the best double play combination in baseball with shortstop Dansby Swanson and second baseman Nico Hoerner. Given that they also have two-time Gold Glove winner Ian Happ in left field, Mike Tauchman and Cody Bellinger in center field, with Bellinger likely also at first base, the Cubs could be pretty good defensively. They finished tied for 8th in Defensive Runs Saved last season and could better that.

    Diamondbacks – It’s reasonable to suggest that the Diamondbacks are the NL’s best defensive team. They finished 4th in Defensive Runs Saved last year and have very good defenders at catcher (Gabriel Moreno), first base (Christian Walker), and center field (Alek Thomas). Shortstop and third base may determine whether that suggestion becomes reality. Runs Saved has not viewed Geraldo Perdomo or Eugenio Suárez favorably, so those are the positions to watch entering 2024.

    Dodgers – The Dodgers have been a Top 10 team in Defensive Runs Saved in each of the last 8 seasons. They always seem to make the right moves and in 2024 they’re making a bold one by making Mookie Betts their everyday shortstop. Betts, who won the Fielding Bible Award last year for multi-position play, handled second base very well last season. The Dodgers do have some flexibility here. They could move Betts back to second and play one of the game’s best defensive shortstops, Miguel Rojas, if things don’t work out.

    Giants – In theory, the Giants should be a lot better defensively than they were last season. Their 3 weakest defensive positions by Runs Saved were shortstop, third base, and center field. They signed 2 standout infield defenders in Matt Chapman and Nick Ahmed and signed Jung Hoo Lee, who led all KBO center fielders in Runs Saved last season. Those could be a boon to pitchers like Blake Snell and Logan Webb.

    Marlins – What can infield coach Jody Reed do for Tim Anderson? The new Marlins shortstop has totaled -22 Runs Saved the last 2 seasons, which ranks 2nd-worst at the position. Reed will do his best to maximize what Anderson can do. The Marlins ranked as one of the best-positioned infields in MLB last season.

    Mets – One year after signing Brandon Nimmo to a long-term contract, they’ve moved him from center field to left field and attempted to turn a defensive weakness into a strength by signing Harrison Bader as their new primary center fielder. Bader has twice totaled at least 15 Runs Saved in a season in center field. His 5 Runs Saved there the last 2 years are 16 more than Nimmo in that span.

    Nationals – The Nationals have finished 29th and 28th in Runs Saved the last 2 seasons and need a few things to happen in order to improve on that in 2024. One would be to see some improvement from catcher Keibert Ruiz. The Nationals ranked last in MLB in Runs Saved from their catchers. It would also behoove them to find playing time for minor league Gold Glove winner Trey Lipscomb, who can play any of the infield positions (read our interview with him here).

    Padres – Two things: One is whether Fernando Tatis Jr. can replicate his 2023 season, when he blew away everyone else at the position with 29 Runs Saved. Two, the position switch of Xander Bogaerts to second base so as to put their best infield defender, Ha-Seong Kim, at shortstop. Bogaerts has managed a positive Runs Saved total once in the last 10 years. Second base may be a better fit for him but time will tell.

    Phillies – Johan Rojas didn’t have a particularly good spring training with his bat but he’s arguably too valuable to even consider sitting. He’s by far the Phillies’ best defensive player. Rojas ranked 4th in Runs Saved among center fielders despite ranking 37th among them in innings played.

    Pirates – The Pirates ranked 28th in Defensive Runs Saved from their center fielders last season, but that could change significantly if Michael A. Taylor hits enough to stay in the lineup there. Taylor leads all center fielders in Runs Saved over the last 3 seasons.

    Reds – The Reds ranked 27th in Defensive Runs Saved last season. They’re running out most of the same players this season, save for Jeimer Candelario at third base, which could be a small improvement in Defensive Runs Saved. But they may be a bottom-10 team again.

    Rockies – The most watchable thing the Rockies have right now is their defense. They have Fielding Bible Award-caliber players at second base (Brendan Rodgers), shortstop (Ezequiel Tovar), third base (Ryan McMahon), and center field (Brenton Doyle), and a left fielder with a terrific arm (Nolan Jones). This will probably be the team with the biggest difference between the quality of its defense and its win-loss record.

  • Stat of the Week: AL Defensive Stories In 2024

    Stat of the Week: AL Defensive Stories In 2024

    Photo: Chris Leduc/Icon Sportswire

    BY MARK SIMON

    With Opening Day approaching, we wanted to preview the 2023 season from a defensive perspective. So to be fair to all 30 teams, we’ve got a stat-driven theme or story to watch for each team. We’ll do the AL teams this week, the NL next week.

    Angels – The Angels ranked 19th in Defensive Runs Saved last season and didn’t make any significant improvements on the defensive side. Mike Trout hasn’t been moved off center field but Mickey Moniak fared well there when Trout was out, so it’s worth wondering if anything could happen on that front in 2024. For now, Trout is in center field and Moniak is in right field.

     

    Astros – The Astros finished 17th in Defensive Runs Saved last season but have the capability to be better than that, given a roster of players with good track records (Kyle Tucker, Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, Alex Bregman). The thing to watch will be a potential trouble spot, the right side of their infield, in particular José Altuve, who has totaled a positional-worst -28 Runs Saved over the last 2 seasons.

     

    Athletics – The A’s best defensive player is shortstop Nick Allen, who has saved 9 Runs in a little over 1,300 innings at the position the last 2 seasons. If his bat keeps him on the field, he’s Oakland’s best shot at a Fielding Bible Award.

     

    Blue Jays – The Jays are basically running it back from last season, when they led the majors in Runs Saved. The only exception is third base where Isiah Kiner-Falefa is slated to be the primary replacement for Matt Chapman. IKF has a very good history at the position so if he plays (likely contingent on how he hits), the drop-off at that position might be very small and the Blue Jays could again contend to be the top defensive team.

     

    Guardians – The Guardians have 3 outfielders who are capable of winning a Fielding Bible Award. Left fielder Steven Kwan already has two. Myles Straw came close. And Ramón Laureano has a great history in right field in a little more than a season’s worth of innings. The Guardians, in the eyes of some, are MLB’s top defensive team entering the season.

     

    Mariners – The Mariners have a couple of players who have contended for or won Gold Gloves in the past but didn’t put up the best defensive numbers last season. We’re referring to first baseman Ty France and shortstop J.P. Crawford. For the Mariners to contend, it would help if they excelled at their respective spots.

     

    Orioles – The Orioles ranked tied for 6th in Defensive Runs Saved last season because they were basically average or better at every position. They’re capable of matching that with their current roster particularly because they have 2 defensive standouts, Ramón Urias and Jorge Mateo who can come in late in games if needed for youngsters Jordan Westburg at third base and top prospect Jackson Holliday at second base.

     

    Rangers – After looking great in the 2023 postseason, making several highlight-reel plays, Josh Jung could step up a level defensively. He may become one of the game’s elite defenders in 2024.

     

    Rays – Rays shortstops tied for the MLB lead with 19 Runs Saved last season. With Wander Franco in significant legal trouble and Taylor Walls injured, will new acquisition José Caballero perform at a high level? Caballero looked the part at both middle infield spots last season and he seems like a good fit on a team that typically maximizes the talent of its roster.

     

    Red Sox  There’s a lot to watch throughout the Red Sox outfield. They’ll have a new player standing in front of the Green Monster in left fielder Tyler O’Neill, who won the Fielding Bible Award at that position in 2020 and 2021. Rookie Ceddanne Rafaela will be the center fielder. Jarren Duran, who played mostly center field and left field the last two seasons, will now try right field. It will be interesting to see how all three mesh in Fenway Park.

     

    Royals – Bobby Witt Jr. was one of the most improved defensive players in MLB in 2023. Is he capable of making the jump to being one of the top shortstops by Defensive Runs Saved?

     

    Tigers – Tigers third basemen combined to have the worst Runs Saved total of any infield position. The addition of Gio Urshela should make things considerably better there. And we’ll see how things shake out with rookies Parker Meadows and Colt Keith and how well they fare at center field and second base.

     

    Twins – After a year away from center field, Byron Buxton is going to return to playing the position in 2024. When healthy, Buxton is as good as it gets in center field. But his injury history is a concern. The Twins are ready for potential issues though with Manuel Margot available to back up at multiple spots.

     

    White Sox  The White Sox ranked 29th in Runs Saved last season, so they have nowhere to go but up. Their weakest spots included right field, where for now they have newcomer Dominic Fletcher, and shortstop, which will be manned by Paul DeJong. They’ll also have a new catching tandem in Martín Maldonado and Max Stassi. Maldonado has something to prove after a career-worst -10 Runs Saved in 2023.

     

    Yankees – The Yankees’ outfield Runs Saved numbers last season were among the worst in MLB. How will that change in 2024? They’ve got two new acquisitions to acclimate in Alex Verdugo (typically a good defender) and Juan Soto (typically not as good), and they’re giving Aaron Judge another try in center field, where he’s rated basically as average in the past.

  • Oral History: Adrián Beltré’s Defensive Legacy

    Oral History: Adrián Beltré’s Defensive Legacy

    Photo: Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire

    New Hall of Fame inductee Adrián Beltré is the overall leader in Defensive Runs Saved since the stat was first tracked in 2003. 

    His 203 Runs Saved at third base far surpass the next-closest player. Beltré won 5 Gold Gloves and 4 Fielding Bible Awards (he could have won more of the latter if the Award existed prior to 2006).

    This is the story of Beltré’s defensive excellence. Over the last several months we talked to 17 of Beltré’s former teammates, coaches, managers, and friends to get a better sense of what made him into the defensive player he became. 

    It’s a story that began in 1979 when he was born in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. The Dodgers signed him in July 1994, at age 15. He began his minor league playing career in 1996.

    John Shoemaker (Beltré’s Class-A minor league manager, 1996-1997): “Seventeen years old. Full of energy, full of talent, full of the player who could make a play when a big play was needed.”

    “One game that came to mind, he hit an extra-inning home run to give us the lead, then made two consecutive terrific defensive plays with a runner in scoring position. One was a check-swing from a left-handed batter that was like a bunt. I doubt many people could have made that play except Adrián. He followed that up by fielding a high bouncer over the mound. I doubt any third baseman would have made that play, except Adrián.”

    Beltré was called up to the Dodgers from Double-A San Antonio at age 19 in 1998 and, at the very beginning, he had a rough patch.

    Shoemaker: “Sometimes he tried to make a play when there wasn’t a play. Gradually his errors became less and less just because of the experience and playing on better fields and just having a better idea of what he was doing.”

    Alex Cora (Dodgers teammate, 1998-2004): “I think Tommy Lasorda kind of rushed him into the scene. He was just erratic, not making the routine play. But little by little, the game slowed down for him and became the guy he became. He was a freak athlete, a gigantic guy with big thighs who moved like a smooth shortstop. He had an uncanny way of learning on the job and gradually he became a beast.”

    One thing that was immediately impressive was Beltré’s throwing arm. He had a nontraditional way of throwing to first base. It stung a lot of hands but it was highly effective.

    Travis Barbary (coach, Savannah Sand Gnats, 1996): “He’s just firing the ball across the infield with very little effort and it’s just like oh my gosh, this guy’s got a bazooka attached to his shoulder.”

    Ian Kinsler (Rangers teammate, 2011-2013): “He had a unique way of getting the ball to first base with a little step that he did to stop his momentum. We asked him why he does that, and he said his arm was too good when he was younger, that he would throw the ball into the stands all the time, or the first baseman couldn’t catch it. He had to figure out how to control his live arm and that’s what he came up with.”

    Barbary: “You wouldn’t teach a guy to throw to first base by coming to a standstill and just throwing it over there.”

    Cora: “For feeds to second base, it was the toughest for me. It was a low arm slot, sinking, like 100 miles-per-hour. Catching it was like trying to hit Kevin Brown.”

    Colby Lewis (Rangers teammate, 2011-2016) “He said he could never throw the ball soft because he would mess up.”

    By 2003, the first year Defensive Runs Saved was calculated, Beltré was a stud defender. He saved 25 runs that season. In 2004, which also happened to be the best offensive season of his career, he saved 22. Each year, his total ranked 2nd among third basemen.

    That offseason, he signed a big free agent contract with the Mariners and his run of defensive success continued. He won the Fielding Bible Award in its first year, 2006, then won his first Gold Glove the next year. In 2008, he won both Awards. He had two more seasons in his career with at least 20 Runs Saved and another season with 19.

    After five seasons in Seattle and one year in Boston, Beltré signed with the Rangers and was beloved in Texas both by the fans and his teammates. He played with the Rangers from 2011 until his retirement in 2018 and was consistently one of the top defensive players at third base in MLB. 

    Kinsler: “My wife did not like him when he was on Seattle. He took away countless hits from me.”

    The hitter who hit into the most outs on balls fielded by Beltré was both an AL and NL rival who had a lot of respect for his nemesis.

    Jason Kendall (MLB catcher, 1996-2010): “He was fun to watch as long as it wasn’t me. But apparently it was me, often. There are certain guys that you know if you hit a ball towards, you’re out. I’ve done that 50 times (actually, 48, per the Elias Sports Bureau). I knew I was out before I even ran down the baseline.”

    Most Defensive Runs Saved, 3rd Base

    Player Runs Saved
    Adrián Beltré 203
    Nolan Arenado 160
    Scott Rolen 114
    Manny Machado 104
    Evan Longoria 98

    One of the things that Beltré became best known for was making plays when he had to come in to field the ball.

    Eric Young (Dodgers teammate, 1998-1999): “The best at coming in on balls that I’ve ever seen.”

    Eduardo Perez (Mariners teammate, 2006): “He was one of those guys you couldn’t take your eyes off of on defense.”

    Willie Bloomquist (Mariners teammate, 2005-2008): “The play that he often made coming in on a bunt or a slow roller where he would literally be moving toward the third base dugout, drive back across his body and try to throw a frozen rope to first base, I don’t think I’ve seen anybody do it that way.

    “He was phenomenal at it. I would go try and imitate it and I’d hurt myself.”

    Cora: “I was in awe [of his bunt defense]. Talking about it now, I’m still in awe.”

    Eric Nadel (Rangers broadcaster): That’s the indelible memory that I have of him defensively, making that off balance throw from down under and then going flying.”

    6-foot-8 Mariners first baseman Richie Sexson had a game he would play with Beltré when they took infield practice.

    Richie Sexson (Mariners teammate, 2005-2008) “I would just hold my glove in a certain area, off to the side. I literally wouldn’t move my glove. If he missed it with a throw, I let it go. I wouldn’t catch it because it wasn’t perfect. He had to hit the glove, or it didn’t count.”

    Beltré could field the hard-hit balls well too. He developed a pre-game routine early in his career where he’d take ground balls in large volumes.

    Pedro Grifol (Mariners various roles, 2005-2009) He absolutely wore me out because he wanted me to hit the hardest ground balls I could ever hit. And he wanted ball after ball, and bucket after bucket.”

    Nadel: “He made every type of play. And you get to a point where you weren’t surprised by any kind of miraculous play that he made.”

    And yes, the stories you’ve heard are true.

    Kinsler: “He really did not wear a protective cup. That is correct. He said his hands were good enough that he didn’t need a cup.”

    Beltré played at a time when the player was more responsible for his positioning than he is now (that is reflected in much of his Defensive Runs Saved total, as SIS started giving teams—rather than players—credit for positioning in 2013).

    Ron Washington (Beltré’s Rangers manager, 2011-2014): He was just very anticipative. He knew the league. He knew what these guys did when they did it. He didn’t have what you might call a ton of range, like in today’s game, the way they talk about range. But he was an expert at positioning himself.”

    Sexson: He didn’t need a chart. He knew where everyone was gonna hit it, where to stand, how deep to play.”

    Elvis Andrus (Rangers teammate, 2011-2018): “He used to help me with positioning myself. We didn’t have cards like we have now. He taught me how to read swings. He taught me how to play the guy who was 0-for-3 versus the guy who was 3-for-3. 

    He would say, ‘Always put yourself in the hitter’s mind. If you want to be a good defender, you have to think like a good hitter.’ And you know how you feel when you’re 3-for-3, you know how you feel when you’re 0-for-3. The guy that’s 0-for-3 probably isn’t going to pull the ball. He’s probably going to try to go up the middle. The guy who’s 3-for-3 is thinking big and trying to pull the ball or hit a home run. Those little insights mean a lot when you’re playing defense. They can change the game in a lot of ways.”

    Most Defensive Runs Saved – All Positions

    Player Runs Saved
    Adrián Beltré 203
    Andrelton Simmons 200
    Yadier Molina 170
    Kevin Kiermaier 165
    Mookie Betts 162

    Beltré’s garnered a reputation for incredible durability. From his age-23 to age-27 seasons, Beltré averaged 157 games played. From his age-33 to age-37 seasons, he averaged 152. 

    Cora: “When he really took off in 2004, he did it on one leg. I think it was his ankle. He was banged up the whole time. He was limited, but 75% of Adrián Beltré was a lot better than whoever else we had.”

    Bloomquist: “I do remember there was a time that (Mariners manager) Mike Hargrove gave him the day off. He said to Beltré, ‘I’m giving you a day off.’ And Beltré said, ‘No, you’re not.’ I watched him play a whole season with a torn UCL.”

    Washington: “He had a rib cage injury, and we wanted to put him on the DL, but he fought it. We wanted to take him out the lineup. He fought it. So one day, (Rangers GM) Jon Daniels and I decided that we’re just going to take him out the lineup and not tell him. So he came to the ballpark. Of course, he was upset. And when he came over telling me about it, he said he’ll let me know when he can’t play. I got down on my knees and I said, ‘I’m down on my knees. I’m begging you to take the night off.’ 

    That did it.

    Suddenly everyone wanted to play through pain and injuries because Beltré did it.”

    As Beltré aged, he seemed to have more fun on the field. He appreciated that he was playing a game and visibly showed how much he enjoyed it.

    Bloomquist: “Elvis Andrus was the Rangers shortstop and he’d call off Adrián on a popup. Beltré would still pretend to make the catch and Elvis would catch it right next to him.”

    Emily Jones (Fox Sports Southwest sideline reporter): “On balls that were well over his head, he would toss his glove in the air.”

    Andrus: “(At the end of innings), we were always looking at the fans, trying to find funny fans, or see if a couple was fighting or having a discussion. Adrián and I would be asking each other, ‘What are they talking about?’”

    Jonathan Lucroy (Rangers teammate, 2016-2017): “He was just a big kid out there. I think that’s why he played so long is because he treated the game like it was a game, it wasn’t a job to him.

    Matt Vinnola (Rangers director of baseball operations, 2009-2017): “He went above and beyond with my family, like throwing BP and playing wiffleball with my kids. He was incredibly kind. And his son, A.J. was the most professional and respectful kid I ever encountered.”

    Lewis: “Three words to describe Beltré? Intense, fun, and fearless. He was so intense, but he’d make it look fun, you know?”

    Jones: “It was that rare combination of being an elite player at your position and just being comfortable in your own skin that you can just go out and play and display the amount of joy that he was able to play with.” 

    The legacy of Adrián Beltré is that of an all-time great player, and in a few months, he’ll have a plaque in Cooperstown to immortalize his well-rounded career.

    Kinsler: I think when you play with a player of Adrián’s caliber, you tend to take a lot of things for granted until you have another third baseman standing over there and you realize the difference that he made in the game day in and day out.”

    Bloomquist: “I’ve never seen anybody remotely that good defensively at third base.”

    Vinnola: “I remember when we were signing him, Don Welke (who worked in baseball for 50 years), when we were talking about Beltré, he just said ‘special.’ When Don Welke said ‘special,’ it got people’s attention.

    Nadel: “I came back to the hotel one night at the Hall of Fame and Brooks Robinson called out to me from across the lobby. He said, ‘Eric, I’d like you to do me a favor. Tell Adrián Beltré that I watch as many games of yours as I can so I can watch him play third base.’ I told Adrián that and he was really moved by it. Brooks Robinson said that? A huge smile came across his face.”

    Grifol: “He wanted to be a Hall of Famer. He trained like it, he worked like it, and he lived like it.”

  • Stat of the Week: Dancing With The Star

    Stat of the Week: Dancing With The Star

    Let’s talk dancing for a moment.

    Not NCAA Tournament dancing. Even though that’s pertinent these days, that’s another sport. I’m talking about baseball and dancing.

    Several years ago, I interviewed Hall of Fame manager Casey Stengel’s grand niece, Toni Harsh, who told me how much Stengel loved dancing, to the point of showing off the waltz to his family with his wife Edna. He passed on the importance of dancing to his players, encouraging them to take lessons.

    “Dancing taught shifting weight, turning, and stretching,” Harsh said. “It was about staying light on your feet.”

    Stengel would have loved the answer Guardians second baseman Andrés Giménez gave us when we asked him how he stayed in good physical shape during the offseason, besides doing basic baseball work. He likes to dance.

    “First of all, it’s a way to enjoy the moment, enjoy the music, enjoy your family,” Giménez said on the latest episode of The Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast. “Dance is an easy way to show love. And if you move your feet, you’re going to be in a great position to dance or to catch a ground ball. When I have the opportunity to dance with my wife or other family members, I do it, because you move your feet there. When the ball is coming, you kind of dance with it.”

    Giménez brought to mind similar thoughts from former Red Sox minor league coach Bianca Smith, who is now coaching in Japan. A few months ago she told us, “No matter what you’re doing, whether you’re hitting, you’re on the bases, you’re in the field, you’re dancing with the pitcher.”

    Said Giménez: “I’m with her. If you move your feet when you’re dancing, it’s going to be easier to take a ground ball. I’m not the best dancer, but I can do it, so it helps me for my defense.”

    Giménez danced his way into the hearts of Guardians fans in 2022 with an MVP-caliber season. He wasn’t quite as good a hitter in 2023 but he dominated in the field. His 22 Defensive Runs Saved led the majors at his position. He won both our Fielding Bible Award at second base and the Rawlings Platinum Glove Award as the top AL defensive player last season. Giménez’s deft athleticism led to him making 23 sliding defensive plays, most in MLB in 2023.

    This season, Giménez has a new middle-infield partner to tango with, as fellow Venezuelan Brayan Rocchio is slated to be the Guardians’ everyday shortstop and another Venezuelan, Gabriel Arias, is a possible backup. Notable all-Venezuelan double play combinations of the past include Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor, Alcides Escobar and Omar Infante, and Ozzie Guillén and Fred Manrique.

    If Giménez is at the top of his game his double play combo has a chance to be the best all-Venezuelan one ever. And perhaps they’ll give a new meaning to ‘dancing with the stars.’

  • Spencer Torkelson’s Clear Areas For Improvement

    Spencer Torkelson’s Clear Areas For Improvement

    Photo: John Jones/Icon Sportswire

    This play kind of sums it up how it went defensively for Tigers first baseman Spencer Torkelson in 2023.

    Torkelson ranked last among first basemen with -10 Defensive Runs Saved last season. Though his offense improved decently from his rookie season, his defense took a step back from 2022 (-4 Runs Saved). As a result, he was one of two 30-homer hitters to finish with a bWAR less than 1 (Kyle Schwarber was the other).

    Torkelson was a rough watch at first base, relatively speaking. That throw from the video atop this article wasn’t the only one he had trouble with. We credited him with 7 mishandles of throws (another example is this one).

    Torkelson also had a few issues trying to catch foul balls this season (here, here, and here). But most significantly, he repeatedly got eaten up by ground balls. Here’s one example:

     Here are a few others (here, here, here, here, and here). Most of those plays are balls either hit straight at him or to his right and that’s where the numbers were most problematic. The table below shows how many plays were made, how many opportunities he had to make a play, and how many plays below average Torkelson was based on our out probability data.

    Balls hit Plays Made/Opportunities Plays Saved
    To his right 59/212 -7
    At him 54/72 -7

    In other words, Torkelson made 59 plays on balls hit to his right. An average first baseman would have made 66. And he made 54 plays on balls hit at him. An average first baseman would have made 61. That’s where the damage to his statistical ledger was done.

    That’s not to say that he was all bad. Torkelson’s 43 Good Fielding Plays were the most of any first baseman last season. He was able to offset those mishandles of throws with an MLB-best 29 Good Plays on handling throws (we call those “scoops”).

    But based on his Runs Saved total, Torkelson has no shortage of work to do prior to the start of the 2024 season. He’s got some clear issues as a hitter too.

    In 2023, Torkelson hit .106 in AB ending with a pitch that we classified as down-and-away. That’s 13-for-123.

    Of the 251 hitters who saw the most down-and-away pitches in 2023* Torkelson ranks …

    – 238th in batting average

    – 198th in slugging percentage

    – 57th-highest in percentage of swings that missed (the higher you are, the worse you’re doing)

    * We’d have done 250 hitters, but there was a 3-way tie for 249th

    Hitting down-and-away pitches is hard, really hard. A lot of those are tough sliders, sweepers, and changeups. This is what we’re talking about (here) and this (here) and this (here). But most major leaguers are at least a little better than Torkelson is.

    Torkelson’s teammate Riley Greene is right around the midpoint of our player sample in batting average against down-and-away pitches. He hit .190 against them. Torkelson was about 10 hits away from hitting .190 against down-and-away pitches in 2023. If he plays every day, replacing 10 outs with 10 hits would be  one more hit every 15-16 games. Finding his way to a few more hits on those pitches would certainly make Torkelson a better player. So would making fewer outs.

    As we wrote about with Bobby Witt Jr. not too long ago, one of the biggest lessons for a young player is learning what pitches he can hit, what pitches he can’t, and making the necessary adjustments in his swing tendencies. Torkelson could be best served by a few more takes, even if those pitches are in the strike zone, in the hopes that he’ll get something in one of his hot zones later in the at-bat.

    One thing Torkelson does well that bodes well is that he hits the heat. He hit .279 and slugged .549 against fastballs that were 95 MPH or faster on the TV radar gun, missing on 17.5% of his swings. The MLB averages against those pitches were a .244 batting average, .397 slugging percentage, and 21% miss rate, respectively.

    Also similar to Witt, if Torkelson were to more fully figure things out at the plate and in the field, his ascent could go a long way in determining his team’s ascent in 2024 in an AL Central that doesn’t seem to have a dominant team.