In sum: Broncos QB Bo Nix ranks No. 1 in our all-encompassing player value stat, Total Points. That contrasts with Nix’s poor ranks in many measurable quarterback skills.
Our system is primarily rewarding him for two things that paint over those flaws: 1) his avoidance of sacks, and 2) his high volume of short high-floor throws.
The Denver Broncos are set to host the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round, and while I’m sure many articles will be devoted to previewing the matchup, we’re instead taking the opportunity to do some housecleaning and investigate something that’s been bothering us for the last several weeks: Bo Nix ranking 1st in our Total Points metric.
Total Points Leaders – NFL Quarterbacks
| Player | Total Points |
| Bo Nix | 142 |
| Matthew Stafford | 127 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 120 |
| Jared Goff | 119 |
| Caleb Williams | 118 |
| Josh Allen | 107 |
| C.J. Stroud | 107 |
For the uninitiated, Total Points is our proprietary player value stat that divides credit for the EPA value on a play among the players involved based on our charting data.
A full primer on Total Points is beyond the scope of this article, but a quick example might be that Total Points will evaluate a quarterback who throws an interception because a receiver dropped a pass and it caromed into the arms of a defender very differently from one who throws an interception because he overthrew an open receiver, even if the EPA value on the play is the same.
Because the metric theoretically focuses on process over results, why, then, does it seem to think so highly of Bo Nix? But perhaps the better question to ask – at least initially – is, ‘Why does SIS seem to think this is a problem?’ I’m glad you asked!
Across most measures, Nix is not very good. In expected on-target rate +/- (xOnTgt+/-), which calibrates quarterback accuracy based on throw location, he ranks 29th.
He’s 25th in independent quarterback rating (IQR), an enhancement of passer rating that controls for drops, dropped interceptions, and throwaways, and which the last several MVPs have ranked very highly in.
He’s also between 18th and 28th in touchdown rate, success rate, explosive play rate, adjusted net yards/attempt (ANY/A), turnover-worthy play rate, and average depth of target (ADoT).
That’s not No. 1 QB caliber.
So, what gives? Well, for starters, it’s not all bad. Nix gets a lot of credit for avoiding sacks; his 3.3% sack rate is the lowest in the NFL and he consequently generates more Total Points on sack avoidance than any other player – roughly 20% more than the next.
We’re generally comfortable with the principle of giving quarterbacks credit for this because sacks are indeed a quarterback stat, but perhaps we could modulate it in a way that accounts for play design.
We’ll elaborate on Nix’s ADoT more shortly, but suffice it to say there’s a difference between a quarterback having a low sack rate because he’s getting the ball out quick by design vs. having a low sack rate because he’s navigating the pass rush well (which is the spirit of the principle).
With offensive linemen, for example, they receive more credit for sustaining blocks the longer they are expected to hold them given the design of the play.
However, there is an existing interaction between blocker credit and passer credit by which QBs get slightly less credit for the result of the play if the offensive line performed well (all else being equal). This would complicate such a revamp given the fact that the credit has to go somewhere, because that’s just how accounting works.
Nix also avoids highly negative plays reasonably well, largely owing to the fact that a whopping 61% of his throws are attempted 5 yards or fewer downfield. From a Total Points perspective, this means that he is spamming high-floor value propositions as a baseline.
Most Total Points – On Throws 5 Yards or Fewer Downfield
| Player | Total Points |
| Bo Nix | 83 |
| Matthew Stafford | 36 |
| C.J. Stroud | 30 |
The biggest chunk of Total Points value in general is what we call the throw value, which is an estimate of the average value of a throw with similar distance, route, and receiver openness. Any assessment of accuracy, catching, or yards after catch happens as a modulator to this initial estimate.
But, on top of that, he’s also getting more credit than league average on these throws – about 50% more – and that adds up over such a large sample.
Some of this is his targeted receivers having a higher rate of openness than most quarterbacks, but there are also just slight, compounding effects across several situational factors which feed into the throw value component of Total Points. Nothing in particular stands out as a smoking gun, but they do add up.
Lastly, we believe we’ve identified a potential improvement to how we’re penalizing quarterbacks for inaccurate throws. At SIS, we track both if a throw was accurate and if it was catchable, and we recently implemented the aforementioned xOnTgt+/- into how we evaluate quarterback accuracy from a Total Points perspective.
The problem, though, is that an uncatchable throw is worse than an inaccurate throw, and we’re not differentiating between the two as much as we’d like in general.
In Nix’s specific case, we’re talking about a poor deep passer (29th in catchable rate on throws 15+ yards downfield) who also has the sixth-most attempts. That’s a lot of attempts for which we could be penalizing him more severely, and for which he’s receiving a lot of credit in the throw value because it’s a high value proposition (i.e. deeper downfield). Look at his numbers compared to MVP candidates Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye.
Stafford, Maye, Nix – Pass Attempts, 15+ Yards Downfield
| Player | Pass Attempts | Catchable % |
| Matthew Stafford | 145 | 83% |
| Drake Maye | 114 | 76% |
| Bo Nix | 115 | 67% |
This combination of small things adds up over the course of a full season, and even if we were able to make enhancements to the model overnight, Nix still probably wouldn’t be as low as we would expect him to be based on other metrics and the eye test. We’re always looking to improve Total Points and we learn as much from the case studies of surprisingly-well-rated players as we do anything else.
I don’t know that Nix will finally turn into a pumpkin this weekend, but, if he does, please don’t hold our feet to the fire on him ranking higher than his counterpart, Josh Allen. Because rest assured, we’re working on it.
