Author: Alex Vigderman

  • Manny Machado Has Company

    One of the most exciting storylines of the 2013 season has been Manny Machado’s breakout.  Earlier this month, Machado turned 21 years old, and like Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, he is already among the game’s elite.  Machado is a well-rounded player, but his best skill may be defensive.  With 23 Defensive Runs Saved, Machado leads all third basemen and trails only Carlos Gomez and Andrelton Simmons, both of whom have 26 Runs Saved, among all positions.

    For most of the season, Machado has had a healthy lead in Runs Saved over the rest of third basemen.  However, things have been getting tighter since Nolan Arenado made his big-league debut in late April.  Through yesterday’s games, Arenado is up to 20 Runs Saved, himself, and Arenado has played 711.1 innings this season compared to 938.1 innings for Machado.  That means that Arenado has actually racked up Runs Saved at a greater pace than even Machado.

    With a couple months left in the season, third base could prove to be a fascinating defensive race between a pair of young players, similar to the one between Jason Heyward and Josh Reddick in right field a year ago.

  • Alfonso Soriano Needs Power to Help Yankees

    Over the weekend, new Yankee Alfonso Soriano paid early dividends with a home run and a walk-off single against the Rays.  It was a big win for the Yankees who, even with the victory, remain 7.5 games back in the division and 7.0 games behind the second-place Rays.

    Brian Cashman was probably correct in his assessment that Soriano will help the team, if only by keeping Vernon Wells and his .283 OBP on the bench.  However, the 18 home runs and 10 stolen bases that made Soriano attractive to teams like the Yankees are counterbalanced by flaws that do now show up as readily in traditional counting statistics.

    Since 2009, Soriano has cost the Cubs an estimated 43 runs with his poor defense, the fifth-worst total by an outfielder in that time.  More subtle is his poor baserunning, a limitation belied by his stolen base totals.  Among players with at least 30 stolen bases since 2009, Soriano has the 10th-worst Net Gain–a comprehensive measurement of baserunning that includes success rate on moving first to third, second to home, and first to home on hits as well as stolen bases.

    Of course, a right-handed bat with 30-homer potential is still a valuable addition for the Yankees.  It’s probably not worth $19 million per season, however, which Soriano will make through the 2014 season.  The Cubs will pick up a lot of that salary, but if the Yankees are as desperate to stay below the Luxury Tax threshold as media reports indicates, one wonders if they could spend their money and prospects more efficiently.

  • Chase Utley Is Still an Elite Defender

    If you look only at the recent trend in Defensive Runs Saved totals for Chase Utley, then it looks like he has really declined in skill, defensively.  After a prime that saw him save an estimated 115 runs between 2005 and 2010, Utley has just 20 Runs Saved in the three seasons since.  However, that decline is more a decline in health than it is in production.

    From 2005 to 2010, Utley saved an estimated 15 runs at second base per 1,000 innings played.  Among players with at least 1,000 innings at the position, only Craig Counsell and Ben Zobrist had higher.  Meanwhile, from 2011 to 2013, Utley has saved 9 runs per 1,000 innings at second base, the eighth-highest total at the position.  Over a full season at his recent level of production, Utley would still be among the best second basemen in the game.

    Of course, just because Utley’s limitation is health rather than skill does not erase the risk a team would have in trading for him.  However, for a team like the Athletics that has chosen to sacrifice defense up the middle for the offensive production of Jed Lowrie, Utley would make a lot of sense.  The real question is whether the Phillies are willing to admit that they are out of the race this season and that Utley may not be the best candidate for a contract extension, despite everything he’s done for the Phillies in his career.

  • Scott Kazmir’s Rebirth

    In case you haven’t noticed, Scott Kazmir has returned to the major leagues.  Not only that, but he’s made 17 starts for a contending team, the Cleveland Indians. 

    Kazmir’s fastball velocity sits above 92 mph, at the same level as his 2006-07 peak with the then Devil Rays.  He’s mixing his fastball/slider/change much like before, though he’ll throw in a cutter and a curve from time to time.  He even had a 10 SO, 0 BB outing on May 9 against the A’s, who are not whiffing nearly as often this season as their record 2012 pace. 

    The results have been less impressive: a 4.30 ERA (4.36 FIP), 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings (down from 10+ at his peak).  He’s also had trouble avoiding hard contact, allowing 14 home runs in his 17 starts.  That being said, his control is as good as (or better than) ever, with 3.2 walks per nine innings this season.  Most importantly, aside from some minor back issues, he’s been healthy. 

    Kazmir is certainly someone to keep an eye on as the second half progresses.  If he settles in as a mediocre starter, fine.  In the short term, however, the upside is enticing.