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  • Wild Card Week Parlay Picks: Baker Mayfield, Jaylen Warren, Amon-Ra St. Brown

    Wild Card Week Parlay Picks: Baker Mayfield, Jaylen Warren, Amon-Ra St. Brown

    Photo: Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire

    For the last couple of weeks of the NFL season, I’m trying something different with our analytic data by testing how useful it is on parlays. We’ll use Total Points, our player projections, and other information at our disposal to make picks.

    Each of my parlays will have an underdog (+120 to +245) or superdog (+250), with the remaining 2 legs consisting of a combination of even money (-115 to +115), favorite (-120 to -245), and heavy favorite (-250) lines. I’ll also incorporate teasers to achieve a degree of balance where possible.

    After starting this run with a win, we’ve missed on our last two attempts, with last week’s effort doomed by George Pickens and his mystifying zero targets. But again, the odds here are always long, and many Baseball Writers Association members would consider a .333 career batting average to be Hall-of-Fame worthy. 

    Without further ado, here are my picks for Wild Card Weekend:

    Underdog – Baker Mayfield Alternate Passing Yards, Over 246.5 @ +135

    Our Trenches Matchup Tool, available on The33rdTeam.com, gives the Tampa Bay offensive line the best pass blocking matchup across the league this week. 

    On the year, the Eagles have given up the fifth most passing yards and second most completions, with opposing teams averaging 270 yards per game against them. They’ve allowed an opposing QB Rating of 97.9, a number that ballooned to 104.3 over their past six games. 

    On the other hand, the Bucs offense has been on a roll recently. Mayfield has averaged 277.5 over his last four games with a couple of 300+ yard performances mixed in. Factor in that Mayfield has topped 246.5 in 4 of his last home 5 games and he’s our pick.

    Even – Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards, Over 17.5 @ -115

    Warren has the 20th most yards after catch (492) of any player this season, and forces broken or missed tackles at a rate of 36 per 100 receptions, the 12th-highest rate in the league.

    He’s averaged 21.8 receiving yards per game, and 25.4 over his last 5 contests. He cleared our 17.5 yard goal in four of those contests, with the lone miss being by half of a yard last weekend against Baltimore.

    The Bills also gave up an average of 21.2 yards per game and 6.2 yards per attempt (12th- worst) on screen targets this year. With weather conditions in Buffalo expected to limit the ability to throw the ball downfield, Warren could see additional opportunities on screens.

    Favorite – Amon-Ra St. Brown Alternate Receiving Yards, Over 79.5 @ -165

    Our projection model projects a big week for the Sun-God, with an estimated total of 90.5 yards. DraftKings has his Over/Under set at 88.5. We’re going to take a lower alternate total here, to make St. Brown the anchor of our final parlay this season.

    St. Brown has accumulated over 79.5 yards in 11 of 16 games this season and averaged 106 yards per game in Ford Field.

    Total Parlay Odds: +605

    All odds available through DraftKings and current as of 11:15 AM 01/12/2024

    Sports Info Solutions is not an online gambling website or gambling operator. If you choose to wager on sports, we encourage you to do so responsibly. If you or someone you know has a sports betting or gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit The National Council on Problem Gambling for more information and further assistance.

  • Week 18 Parlay Picks: Josh Allen, George Pickens, Falcons/Saints

    Week 18 Parlay Picks: Josh Allen, George Pickens, Falcons/Saints

    Photo: Oliver McKenna/Icon Sportswire

    For the last couple of weeks of the NFL season, I’m trying something different with our analytic data by testing how useful it is on parlays. We’ll use Total Points, our player projections, and other information at our disposal to make picks.

    Each of my parlays will have an underdog (+120 to +245) or superdog (+250), with the remaining 2 legs consisting of a combination of even money (-115 to +115), favorite (-120 to -245), and heavy favorite (-250) lines. I’ll also incorporate teasers to achieve a degree of balance where possible.

    In Week 16, I hit with a Breece Hall, Cleveland Browns, Jake Browning combo. Last week was a rough one for the parlay, but you can’t win them all. We hit with Dak Prescott’s passing yardage total but missed on Kyren Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs rushing yardage totals. Williams finished 8 yards shy. Gibbs would have eclipsed his total if not for a penalty that negated a 35-yard run.

    Regardless, we’re 1-for-2 so far, so we’re off to a good start. Here are the 3 options that our models like this week as we hope our 3rd try is a charm.

    Underdog – Josh Allen Alternate Passing Yards, 275+ @ +185

    Our model projects Allen to throw for 271.2 yards on 37.4 attempts in Miami on Sunday night, both of which are the 2nd highest estimates this week. On the year, Allen’s 122.8 Passing Points Earned ranks 2nd in the NFL.

    Allen completed 84% of his passes while throwing for 320 yards against the Dolphins in Week 4. Miami will be without one of its top pass rushers this time around, as Bradley Chubb was lost last week to a season-ending knee injury. Chubb has the 20th-most Points Saved on pass rushes (23.5) of any defender league wide.

    Finding an underdog that gives me confidence this week was like finding a needle in a haystack. I would have preferred a different George Pickens yardage prop here (more on him below) with an even-money Josh Allen total below, but no other Pickens lines are currently available on DraftKings. 

    Even – George Pickens Receiving Yards, Over 50.5 @ -115

    Pickens has compiled 326 yards in the last 2 games as the favorite target with Mason Rudolph at the helm, reeling in 4-of-5 deep balls (passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield) aimed his way. 

    Our projection model has Pickens estimated to accrue 83 yards against the Ravens, good enough for the 2nd highest estimated total in the league, only 1.4 behind CeeDee Lamb. The 32.5 yard gap between his line and projection is also the largest such gap available on DraftKings for Week 18 (we specifically looked for an over here).

    And a heads-up that DraftKings published yardage props for Pickens after our article came out. An 80-yard prop is at +340 as of noon ET on Friday.

    Speaking of Rudolph, over the last 2 weeks he’s totaled the 3rd-most EPA. His projection of 286.2 yards is also our model’s highest estimated total for the week.

    With the Steelers only recently finding offensive success and fighting for their playoff lives, I expect them to rely heavily on the tools that have worked for them as of late.

    Heavy Favorite – Falcons @ Saints Alternate Total, Under 49.5 @ -302

    These teams combined for 39 points in a 25-14 Falcons victory in New Orleans. Our model indicates the price at Under 49.5 points should be -595, a gap that I expect to close significantly between now and kickoff on Sunday. 

    My main reasoning for this pick is that these are the teams with the 2 best pass coverage units in the NFL in terms of Total Points Per Play (as noted in our weekly look at matchups and mismatches). A high-scoring shootout is not likely.

    The current O/U for this matchup on DraftKings is set at 42, and I’ve teased this up to 49.5 to be my confidence pick this week. 

    Total Parlay Odds: 6.09-to-1

    All odds available through DraftKings and current as of 11:42 AM 1/4/2024

    Sports Info Solutions is not an online gambling website or gambling operator. If you choose to wager on sports, we encourage you to do so responsibly. If you or someone you know has a sports betting or gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit The National Council on Problem Gambling for more information and further assistance.

     

  • Week 17 Parlay Picks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Kyren Williams, and Dak Prescott

    Week 17 Parlay Picks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Kyren Williams, and Dak Prescott

    Photo: Steven King/Icon Sportswire

    “There is no great genius without a touch of madness.” – Aristotle

    I may have been told by my boss to not be too arrogant, but unfortunately I couldn’t really hear him from up here on my high-horse. For I am the self-described Sultan of Spreads, Lord of Long-Odds, Paladin of Parlays, or more commonly known, the intern who won you $764.00 last week. Kiss the rings.

    To briefly recap; Jake Browning didn’t have his best stuff in Pittsburgh, but still cleared the 221.5 mark with ease after Cincinnati abandoned the run early. Cleveland dominated Houston in a game that was 36-7 midway through the 4th. And Breece Hall, my Underdog of the Week, gouged Washington for 191 total yards, passing his 100+ prop before halftime.

    All three lines saw a ton of movement prior to their respective kickoffs, but we locked in this parlay at +764. Based on a $100.00 weekly wager, that win gives us a running payout total of $864.00 heading into Week 17.

    Each of my parlays will have an underdog (+120 to +245) or superdog (+250), with the remaining 2 legs consisting of a combination of even money (-115 to +115), favorite (-120 to -245), and heavy favorite (-250) lines. I’ll also incorporate teasers to achieve a degree of balance where possible.

    With this format and expected odds, my goal is to hit 20% of these “lottery ticket” style attempts. This is the lineup I’m playing this week.

     

    Underdog – Jahmyr Gibbs Alternate Rushing Yards Over 66.5: +210

    Among running backs with 100+ carries, Gibbs is leading the league in yards per attempt (5.7) by almost half of a yard (.3). Over the last four weeks he’s averaged 6.8 yards per attempt and 76.5 yards per game. 

    Gibbs also has a broken or missed tackle on 27% of his rush attempts and is averaging 3.0 yards after contact per attempt, good enough for 2nd and 6th respectively among running backs with 100+ carries. He’s been better in both metrics over the last four weeks.

    While Gibbs is electric, he’s bankable because of the quality of the offensive line in Detroit. Four-fifths of the Lions’ starting offensive lineman are ranked in the top 25 for run blocking Total Points this season. 

    The only two other teams with four lineman in the top 25 of that list are the Eagles and Bills. Both teams rushed for 100+ yards in all three of their matchups with Dallas, including a 266 yard explosion from Buffalo in Week 15.

     

    Even – Kyren Williams Rushing Yards Over 94.5: -115

    Williams is averaging a league-best 120.2 yards per game since returning from injury Week 12, clearing 100 in 4 out of 5 contests. For the full season, he’s leading all rushers with 96.1 yards per game and 30 Total Points. He’s also averaging the 4th most yards per attempt among running backs with 100+ carries (5.1). 

    Across the ball, the Giants have given up 3rd most rushing yards (1,709) and the 4th highest yards per carry (4.6) to running backs. Their run defense has the 5th worst Total Points per play this season.

    Our model is projecting Williams to rush for 108.1 yards this week. That’s 13.6 yards above his current over/under line, and the largest such gap currently available on DraftKings.

     

    Heavy Favorite – Dak Prescott Alternate Passing Yards Over 250.5: -265

    Prescott has cleared the 250 passing yard mark in seven of nine games since the Cowboys’ Week 7 bye. On the year, he’s 3rd in the league in Independent Quarterback Rating (104.8) and 6th in yards per attempt (7.5) among passers with at least 100 attempts.

    According to our model, he’s projected to throw for 284.8 yards, the 2nd highest total this week. CeeDee Lamb is also projected by the same model to lead the league in receiving yardage against Detroit. Lamb is the only receiver projected to top the 100 yard mark, and is 18.5 yards ahead of our 2nd highest projection.

    Detroit, conveniently, is vulnerable to the big play. Their pass defense is allowing big-EPA pass plays at the 2nd highest rate and is allowing the 5th highest average air yards per game to opposing quarterbacks (284.5). Overall, the Lions are allowing the 11th worst passer rating against and 8th most pass yards per attempt (7.6).

     

    Total Parlay Odds: +621

    All odds available through DraftKings and current as of 10:47 AM 12/28/2023

    Sports Info Solutions is not an online gambling website or gambling operator. If you choose to wager on sports, we encourage you to do so responsibly. If you or someone you know has a sports betting or gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit The National Council on Problem Gambling for more information and further assistance.

  • Week 16 Parlay Picks – Breece Hall, the Browns, and Jake Browning

    Week 16 Parlay Picks – Breece Hall, the Browns, and Jake Browning

    Photo: John Rivera/Icon Presswire

    For the last couple of weeks of the NFL season, I’m going to try something different with our analytic data by testing how useful it is on parlays. We’ll use Total Points, our player projections, and other information at our disposal.

    Each of my parlays will have an underdog (+120 to +245) or superdog (+250), with the remaining 2 legs consisting of a combination of even money (-115 to +115), favorite (-120 to -245), and heavy favorite (-250) lines. I’ll also incorporate teasers to achieve a degree of balance where possible.

    With this format and expected odds, my goal is to hit 20% of these “lottery ticket” style attempts. This is the lineup I’m playing this week.

    Underdog: Breece Hall- Alternate Rushing + Receiving Yards, 100+: +225

    Our projections models project Breece Hall to pick up 58 yards on the ground and 42 yards through the air this week; 100 total yards right on the nose. 

    Washington has been awful against the run since trading away the majority of its starting defensive line prior to Week 9. The defense is allowing the 5th-most yards per carry (4.8) of any team in the league over that time frame. Hall has two 100-yard rushing games this year. Both came against teams that have struggled to stop the run (Bills and Broncos).

    The Commanders have also struggled to contain running backs in the passing game since those deadline moves, having given up the 2nd-most receiving yards (291) and 4th-most yards per reception (8.3) over that span. 

    On the flip side, Hall has 53 receptions this year, 3rd in the NFL. He also ranks 3rd in targets and 4th in receiving yards.

    Hall is also averaging just under 5 targets per game and has at least 5 receptions in 4 out of his last 5 contests. 

    Yes, the Jets rank 30th in both Passing and Rushing Total Points Per Play but their reliance on Hall in the passing game is what gives me the confidence to make him my underdog/superdog pick this week.

    Favorite: Cleveland Browns Moneyline: -148

    The Trenches Matchup Tool, available on The 33rd Team website, views the matchup between the Texans offensive line and Browns defensive line as the 2nd-largest Week 16 mismatch among all line matchups. 

    Myles Garrett has the second-most Points Saved (38) of any pass rusher and most Points Saved Per Play of any defensive lineman this year, and has been far from the only contributor up front. 

    With Laremy Tunsil and Shaq Mason both questionable and trending towards not playing this weekend for the Texans, expect the Browns defensive front to fare well against whichever backup QB Houston decides to roll with as its starter.

    Favorite: Jake Browning- Alternate Passing Yards Over 221.5: -170

    Since taking over as the Bengals starter in Week 12, Jake Browning has the 3rd-most Total Points (33.6), 2nd-highest EPA (22.1), 3rd-best passer rating (109.3), and 4th-highest IQR (111.3) in the entire league. 

    Browning has thrown for over 225 yards in every single game he’s started while averaging 295 per game. His completion percentage (74%), on-target percentage (80%) and catchable percentage (95%) are all top-tier. 

    Our models are currently projecting 250.9 yards passing from Browning this week, making his alternate over/under of 221.5 my confidence play.

    Total Parlay Odds: +764

    All odds available through DraftKings and current as of 10:10 AM 12/21/2023

    Sports Info Solutions is not an online gambling website or gambling operator. If you choose to wager on sports, we encourage you to do so responsibly. If you or someone you know has a sports betting or gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit The National Council on Problem Gambling for more information and further assistance.