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Author: Matt Manocherian

  • NFL Scouting Report: Drake Maye

    NFL Scouting Report: Drake Maye

    Drake Maye

    6-4, 223, New England Patriots QB

    Overall Grade 6.8

    Scouting Report by Matt Manocherian 

    Summary

    Drake Maye is a young prospect with a tantalizing combination of size, athleticism, arm strength and accuracy to become a top NFL quarterback if and when the game slows down for him.

    Maye is a right-handed quarterback in North Carolina’s no huddle, spread offense, where he is primarily utilized in short drops, RPOs and read options. UNC operates exclusively out of shotgun except in short-yardage situations. He played in 30 games in 3 seasons at UNC, including starting all 14 games in 2022 and each of their 12 regular season games in 2023 before declaring for the Draft. He is a young prospect who is still growing into his body, but he already shows  good size, arm strength and athletic ability for the position. He is a tough player who was the clear leader of the offense, even as a redshirt freshman. He commands the no huddle well and can have the snap within 10 seconds at his fastest pace, including in the two minute drill against Duke to get the game to overtime. However, his inexperience shows up at times, including calling for the snap in an obviously illegal formation on the goal line in the same game.

    Pass Game

    Maye is a talented passer who is capable of flashes of brilliance. He has a clean, over-the-top release with a consistent, repeatable motion. He tends to pat the ball before he releases it, which complicates the fact that he is already not a quick processor. He needs to see things come open before he lets it rip, and it helps to present him with simplified half-field high/low reads. That said, he has enough arm that he can overcome his lack of anticipation with velocity. If he could get the ball out a hair sooner, several balls he completed out of bounds would likely be catches.

    He is a very good deep ball thrower. He shows very good touch on deep fades and go balls that stress the defense in both Cover 1 and Cover 2. He can drive the ball downfield on a line without needing to put much air under it. He shows good ball placement on quick throws, and he is very good at making level-two throws down the seam. He shows great feel with the ability to take something off of his throws when he needs to. He can also ramp up his velocity with a clean pocket. Most of his misses come when the pocket is messy, and he can’t step into his throws. He also tends to miss when he has to work through his progressions and reset his feet.

    Maye is very effective when he extends plays and gets into scramble drill situations. He keeps his eyes downfield against pressure and does a good job getting the ball out of his hands before the rush gets home. He usually throws well on the move, especially when running to his right and throwing to that side of the field, but he has also had some troubling turnovers in these situations, including a pick-six against Clemson in the 2022 ACC Championship. He can make outrageous jump-passes (touchdowns vs South Carolina and Clemson in 2023), but he also has some bad misses on plays where he tries to make these throws with no platform. He loves to give his receivers a chance to make plays down the field, but they let him down a lot in 2023.

     Run Game

    In the run game, Maye shows very good mobility. He has enough speed to be a legitimate run threat on the NFL level, but he won’t be faster than most defenders like he is in the ACC. They run a fair bit of option and read-option, but he’s a bit slow to make decisions in the read-option game. He is very dangerous on draws and can force the defense out of 2-man. He has the size to be effective on sneaks, but he isn’t a powerful runner. He is at his best on the second play when he can break contain, keep his eyes downfield, and when needed, scramble for first downs.

     Last Word

    Overall, Maye projects to become a strong starting quarterback with “win with” ability. At this time, he is best suited for and can be effective in a spread scheme with lots of deep shots, simplified half-field reads, and opportunities for improvisation. If he develops the ability to anticipate and progress through reads, the sky is the limit for him, with an upside comparable to Justin Herbert.

     Critical Factors

    Accuracy 6
    Decision Making/Mental 5
    Clutch Performance 6

     

    Positional Factors

    Short Accuracy 6
    Deep Accuracy 7
    Pocket Awareness 6
    Footwork 6
    Under Pressure 6
    Mobility 7
    Arm Strength 7
    Release 6
    Awkward Throw 6
    Eye Discipline 7
    Leadership 7
    Body Comp 7

    Strengths

    Prototypical size and athleticism
    Arm strength
    Accuracy downfield

     Weaknesses

    Working through progressions
    Anticipation
    Negative plays

     

  • Scouting or Analytics? Both! (And Why Is This Even A Question?)

    Scouting or Analytics? Both! (And Why Is This Even A Question?)

    A couple of weeks ago, Seth Walder of ESPN and I were guests on Establish The Run with Adam Levitan and Michael Leone to talk about how NFL teams use “analytics.” Given my background as a scout for the Saints and Browns before spending my last eight years serving teams at SIS, I have some thoughts!

    You can use analytics for game planning and in-game decision making. You can use it for roster construction. One that people might not think about is the performance side of things, where it interacts with strength coaches and the training staff. The NFL is about keeping players healthy. If you can find an advantage there, that’s huge.

    There are certain teams and coaches that are fully in. There are certain departments that have specific use cases. Right now, there is still low-hanging fruit available that can give you an edge. It’s all part of the adoption cycle.

    I actually don’t like using the word ‘analytics’ because it can make people uncomfortable. People get afraid. People are worried that scouts are going to get replaced.

    When someone says, ‘Where can analytics make the most impact?’ I don’t think of it that way. To me, it’s ‘Where can information help people make better decisions that have impact?’

    The answer is: everywhere.

    In the best scenarios, there’s not a dichotomy of ‘this is scouting’ and ‘this is analytics.’ It’s blended. You’re using your analysts to make scouts that are more informed and can understand information that you’ve mutually agreed is important.

    For example, if you wanted to show how a quarterback handled certain situations or you wanted to see a player’s injury history, the way an analytics team organizes information can help a scout with their video cutups. They work better together rather than siloed.

    If there are people who believe that the data captures everything and there’s no use for scouts and coaches, that’s crazy and the hubris of that is crazy.

    I say this as someone who has worked on both sides. The best information a team has is its scouting information. Their scouts have been trained for years in watching players and their actions in highly specific ways. The best “analytics” make use of this treasure trove of information.

    That the place of analytics in the NFL isn’t a settled debate yet is fascinating to me. Our company has a 22-year history in baseball. It’s settled there. Every team has a sizable analytics department. The shift has been made to analytics that are more prescriptive. How can we make better players?

    If we look to other sports for a glimpse into the future, the game could change in unforeseeable ways. I can imagine scenarios as wild as teams playing with multiple quarterbacks on the field becoming the norm. More predictably, the game will continue to become much more positionless. When you look across sports, you notice teams encouraging versatile players and creating ways to take advantage of spacing.

    That’s where MLB and the NBA have been headed for years now. They measure and value the importance of spacing. And everyone is looking for versatility.

    With football analytics, there is versatility. There’s not just 4th-down decision-making info. There’s Expected Points (and in our case, Total Points). There’s injury data. There’s scouting data. Every team has access to NextGen data. There are new developments in AI and machine learning that are going to open all sorts of avenues. We’re just scratching the surface there.

    What we don’t fully have yet is belief and buy-in. We’re getting there but there’s still a way to go. I look forward to seeing it develop over time.

  • Breaking Down The AFC Win Total Over/Unders, Team-By-Team

    Breaking Down The AFC Win Total Over/Unders, Team-By-Team

    Recently on the Off The Charts podcast, our panel of football experts – Matt Manocherian, Alex Vigderman, Bryce Rossler, and James Weaver – compared the Vegas over-unders on team win totals for what the Sports Info Solutions projection model came up with for each team.

    They then drafted from each conference based on how much confidence they had in each projection. In other words, they selected the Steelers No. 1 and the Patriots No. 2 because they were most confident in the Steelers being over their 8.5 win projection and the Patriots being under their 7.5 win projection.

    The results of the Draft are below along with highlights from the dialogue and reasoning for each pick.

    If you’re interested in listening to the podcast episode, click the link at the top of the article.

    Team Over/Under (Model) Team Over/Under (Model)
    1. Steelers 
    		 8.5 (Over) 9. Titans 7.5 (Under)
    2. Patriots 7.5 (Under) 10. Jaguars 9.5 (Under)
    3. Chiefs 11.5 (Over) 11. Texans 6.5 (Under)
    4. Raiders 6.5 (Over) 12. Dolphins 9.5 (Over)
    5. Jets 9.5 (Under) 13. Ravens 9.5 (Over)
    6. Broncos 8.5 (Under) 14. Colts 6.5 (Under)
    7. Chargers 9.5 (Over) 15. Bengals 11.5 (Over)
    8. Bills 10.5 (Over) 16. Browns  9.5 (Over)

    Steelers – Over 8.5 (Model = 10.5)

    Matt (over): The line that we were given was 8.5. The model projects them for 10.5. A lot of my methodology was where did my intuition match the largest differences that our model presented. And this was one of those spots.

    Bryce: Does the model know Kenny Pickett is the quarterback?

    Matt: The model sees everything. 

    The TJ Watt injury affected their performance during the season last year, but the model just looks at the depth chart and says, who are the players who are going to get the most snaps and who’s going to make the most impact? And if we expect him to play a full season, that’s a pretty big impact on the defense. It’s not like we’re betting on Kenny Pickett advancing as a passer.

    James: And the schedule’s pretty easy. They play the NFC West and the AFC South this year. The team-level metrics go back on a 7-game weighted rolling average. So, the last 7 games for the Steelers last year resulted in a 6-1 record in taking care of some of their opponents in their division and gaining momentum into the season. So you’ll see that with this team and as well as a few other teams, that a good end of 2022 translates to a potentially higher win total in 2023 

    Patriots – Under 7.5 (Model = 4.5)

    Alex (under): So I am #trustingtheprocess and taking the New England Patriots under 7.5. Idiot. James is shaking his head and he’s responsible for my decision here. 

    I don’t necessarily believe that they would get three games under, but having some amount under I would believe in terms of division competition. The division got better with Aaron Rodgers moving to the Jets. I think the Dolphins are risky because of Tua, and he’s one injury away from that team looking totally different. The Bills are pretty solid, obviously. So I’d be nervous about betting (the Patriots). 

    And so the competition in the division is tough. And the team has made a lot of lateral moves the last couple of years. And really, I don’t necessarily see Mac Jones taking a big step forward with the rest of the offense around him.

    James: I was shaking my head in disgust because they were going to be my first pick. Their schedule is brutal and I don’t know how much I consider Bill O’Brien an upgrade at offensive coordinator.

    Chiefs – Over 11.5 (Model = 12.5)

    Bryce (over): This one’s easy. I’m taking Chiefs over 11.5

    Matt: That’s a great pick as long as Mahomes doesn’t get injured.

    Bryce: The model had them at 12.5, so one win over what the Vegas total is. I don’t have any really intricate reasoning for this beyond they have Patrick Mahomes, and that James’ betting model thinks they’re actually a win better than the Vegas total would suggest. It’s hard to see them losing six games with Patrick.

    Alex: Yeah, I don’t think we need to belabor that point too much.

    Raiders – Under 6.5 (Model = 8) 

    ** We went against the model here**

    James (Under): This has already seen some sentiment in the market, being bet down from 7.5 at -181 to 6.5 -135 at Pinnacle.

    I just can’t trust any of the moves they made in the offseason. Bringing in Jimmy G. I don’t know if, like, they’re trying to stand in limbo. And I just don’t trust McDaniel as the coach.

    Matt: This is one I was back and forth on. I probably would have gone over mostly because of the model. And because 6.5  isn’t a lot, but it’s hard to be inspired about where the Raiders are right now.

    Jets – Under 9.5 (Model = 7)

    James (under): This was the model’s second-biggest discrepancy. We have them around 7 wins.

    Obviously the finish to last year is a reason why the model brought down; scoring 6, 6 and 3 points in your last three doesn’t exactly scream competence.

    Aaron Rodgers, obviously, he can scare you. He can scare you by being a Top 3-5 quarterback in this league. And he can scare you by not wanting to play football anymore. And from last year playing in Green Bay, he wasn’t as great.

    Matt: The counterpoint is that the model is taking into account that the Jets stunk at the end of last year, but it is also taking into account that they have Aaron Rodgers performing at basically last year’s level, correct, which is not top quarterback in the league, but it was sort of good.

    Broncos – Under 8.5 (Model = 6.5)

    Bryce (under): They were what, like a 5-win team last year? I get that Sean Payton’s in the building now. You no longer have a circus clown running the show. That’s probably good for at least a win. Their off season moves… Well, first of all, they didn’t have a first-round pick, so there’s not a lot of immediate impact talent coming through in the draft because they gave up so much for Russell Wilson, who I’m famously not a believer in.

    I think the offensive line got a little bit better, but I think that Wilson neutralizes a lot of the opportunity for those guys to make an impact in pass protection.

    I don’t see this team being four wins better than what they were last year. Even with Payton on board, I can’t get behind Russell Wilson. 

    Chargers – Over 9.5 (Model = 10)

    Alex (over): I feel nervous because they’re the Chargers and something always goes wrong. But we talked last week about where Herbert stands in terms of the pantheon of current quarterbacks; and the skill position players are good; the offensive line is not as good as it has been in the past, but looks all right at this point in time.

    The defense has some interesting players and some guys that you’re not sure what to get, but just a change in coaching philosophy and a division that’s maybe a little bit has, as I mentioned before, like the division could be very good, but also does definitely have some vulnerability to it. 

    At the end of the day, I’m sort of banking on Herbert being the quarterback that he has shown to be at least capable of in stretches.

    Bills – Over 10.5 (Model = 13)

    Matt (over): I feel really good about betting on the Bills to go at least 11-6. 

    There is a scenario I think this year where things really sort of fall apart in Buffalo. I just think it’s not a likely scenario. And so, like, maybe there’s some really bad cases for them, I just think that more of the cases end up with 11 wins or more, than the bad cases. So I like the over here a lot, the model likes the over here a lot at 13.

    I’m sort of concerned about whatever’s been going on with Stefon Diggs and how that figures into everything. But I’m mostly encouraged. I think they’re a well-run team, a smart team, well-coached, well-managed and I’m expecting a bit more balance and diversification of the offense this year.

    Titans – Under 7.5 (Model = 6.5)

    Matt (under): Their line was 7.5, our model projects them for 6.5. And our model nailed it. 

    They’ve got 16 quarterbacks on the roster. They all stink. I don’t care that they signed an old receiver to try to make up for their past sins.

    They’ll try hard, which is like the worst thing about this. And they’ve hit this number before, but I think they stink and I’m happy to take the under on them. 

    Alex: Yeah, the Titans have been teetering on dropping out into irrelevance, and Derrick Henry has sustained production that I think a lot of people were not assuming would happen. And he’s  the exception to the rule of being able to drive team-level production with running back production. 

    Jaguars – Over 9.5 (Model = 9)

    Alex (over): As Matt so eloquently pointed out – the Titans: not good. The Texans: not good. The Colts: I guess we don’t really know, but probably not great. And so that drives a lot of it, but also just the Trevor Lawrence advancement year-over-year. 

    The defense has some guys on it. I don’t know if I expect them to do a ton in the playoffs, but I expect that given the situation they find themselves in that they’re going to have a pretty strong regular season.

    Texans – Under 6.5, Over 6.5 (Model = 6)

    Bryce (under): They were a three-win team last year. They added quite a bit of talent this year, but it’s young talent. 

    Matt (over): I do like their secondary.

    Bryce (under): Yeah. I think Stingley is going to be great. Desmond King’s an underrated player. I like Jimmy Ward and Jalen Pitre. I’m a little bit concerned about their front six. I like Stroud going forward, but I don’t know if he’s going to an amazing Year 1 player. I just have a hard time seeing them being four wins better than last year.

    Matt (over): Well, all they got to do is steal some games against the other crappy teams in their division. I think that the division’s terrible. I think that the young players that they brought on should be able to help them relatively quickly.

    I talked about how I like their secondary. I think they finally have some better management in the building there and so I’m bullish on them. I think they can keep games close on the strength of their secondary and what Demeco Ryans can cook up front. Offensively, it’ll be a slog, but I’m really betting on them having the schedule that can help get them there and just the fact that they’re still going to be trying to win games late in the year when other teams might have otherwise laid down.

    Dolphins – Over 9.5 (Model = 10)

    James (over): If the Patriots aren’t gonna win games, the Jets aren’t gonna win games, and the Bills are gonna win the amount of games that they should win, that means the Miami Dolphins are gonna win a lot of games in that division.

    I think bringing in Vic Fangio was a huge get for them, as well as bringing in Jalen Ramsey to solidify the defense. You have Jalen Phillips, who took a step forward last year, with Bradley Chubb there as well on the D line. And the Dolphins offense, obviously a lot of it comes down to Tua’s health. But, if they stay healthy, the Miami Dolphins can very much go over a win total of 9.5

    Bryce: I think Tua is mid, but there’s a ton of talent everywhere else on this team, and I think the coaching on the offensive side of the ball is phenomenal, so I don’t think it’ll matter whether or not Tua himself is a world beater.

    Ravens – Over 9.5 (Model = 10.5)

    James (over): With the Ravens, it obviously, as it has the past two or three years after his MVP season, comes down to Lamar. Can he stay healthy and take a step forward in this offense?

    Obviously this division is no joke, I already talked about the Steelers and then the Bengals and Browns are bona fide teams that can push for playoffs and if things go right, play for a Super Bowl. Luckily, with the division, with the schedule breakdown, just like how the Steelers get the NFC West and the AFC South, the Ravens also get the AFC South and the NFC West.

    Colts – Under 6.5 (Model = 5)

    Bryce (under): Our model’s got them at five. I myself am a bit skeptical of them, particularly that secondary. I’m a believer in Anthony Richardson long term. I think  there’s potential for Year 1 to look kind of ugly for him.

    I know it’s a weak division. They might steal some games. I don’t know. Quarterback is such a driving force and Richardson is definitely not the most polished coming out of school. I think it’s hard for them to get seven wins. I think they’re going to get passed on, and I don’t know how well they’re going to be able to pass.

    Matt: I have no idea what to think of that team this year. I thought they had a nice draft. I think they’re kind of in a rebuilding mode. I think that Richardson is less of a project than people think he is, but still a great project.

    Bengals – Under 11.5 (Model = 12)

    Alex (under, despite the model projecting over): I acknowledge that the team is good and that I don’t expect them to tank relative to expectations. We just talked about the Steelers potentially being an over candidate; the Ravens being an over candidate; Browns, who knows what to expect with Deshaun Watson, but theoretically could pick things up after last year. So the schedule might be kind of tough.

    I’m still not entirely sure that the way that Joe Burrow plays quarterback is conducive to consistent success because of the sacks and that kind of stuff. And there’s still a little bit of uncertainty about what that offensive line is going to look like. And the defense has kind of been picked apart a little bit. 

    I still think they’ll be good, but I’m not sure if they’ve sort of hit their ceiling already 

    Matt: I’ll take it further. I love the Bills over 10.5. If you had set them at 11.5, I don’t love it. The Bengals were set at 11.5. But if you switched them, I get just as excited to take the over on the Bengals. 

  • Breaking Down The NFC Over-Unders, Team-By-Team

    Breaking Down The NFC Over-Unders, Team-By-Team

    Recently on the Off The Charts podcast, our panel of football experts – Matt Manocherian, Alex Vigderman, Bryce Rossler, and James Weaver – compared the Vegas over-unders on team win totals for what the Sports Info Solutions projection model came up with for each team.

    They then drafted from each conference based on how much confidence they had in each projection. In other words, they selected the Vikings No. 1 and the Eagles No. 2 because they were most confident in the Vikings being under their 8.5 win projection  and the Eagles being over their 10.5 win projection.

    The results of the Draft are below along with highlights from the dialogue and reasoning for each pick.

    If you’re interested in listening to the podcast episode, click the link at the top of the article.

    Team Over/Under (Model) Team Over/Under (Model)
    1. Vikings 8.5 (Under) 9. Panthers 7.5 (Over)
    2. Eagles 10.5 (Over) 10. 49ers 11.5 (Over)
    3. Giants 8.5 (Under) 11. Saints 9.5 (Over)
    4. Lions 9.5 (Over) 12. Rams 6.5 (Under)
    5. Bears 7.5 (Under) 13. Cardinals 4.5 (Under)
    6. Buccaneers 6.5 (Under) 14. Commanders 6.5 (Either*)
    7. Packers 7.5 (Under) 15. Cowboys 9.5 (Over**)
    8. Falcons 8.5 (Over) 16. Seahawks 8.5 (Avoid***)

    * Panel was split on which to take though model projected “Under”

    ** Computer model projected “Over” but all panelists disagreed

    *** Model projected “Under” but panelists agreed this is a tough team to project 

    Vikings – Under 8.5 wins (Model = 6 wins)  

    James: It’s pretty chalky considering what everyone thought of the Vikings at the end of last year and their line reflects the thought that their record last year was somewhat of a fluke. They were 19th in offensive EPA per play and 25th in defensive EPA per play and 11-0 in the regular season in one-score games.

    Alex: Their floor is high. Six wins might be on the lower end of their range of outcomes but we’d say that to repeat what they did last year would be within their range of outcomes, but at the very high end.

    Eagles – Over 10.5 (Model = 14.5)

    Bryce: Our model has them with a win total of 14.5, which is probably a little high but this is a really talented team. Ten and a half seems super low with all the talent on their roster. They’re one of the best teams in the NFL, especially if Jalen Hurts continues on his upward trajectory.

    Alex: The 10.5 is a reflection of a team that shows up and looks like a world beater for one season, so I buy the skepticism (of it only being 10.5). There’s a lot of theoretical uncertainty but the organization is pretty stable. It’s hard to think of ways they don’t get there with their roster.

    Giants – Under 8.5 (Model = 8)

    Alex: Our model has them just under 8 wins. It’s the same story as the Vikings. The Giants were all about running it back. Mostly, this is just a bet against Daniel Jones. He didn’t have the kind of improvement this past year that Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen had. We’re not talking about that level jump that some people might think of. They weren’t lucky the way the Vikings were lucky, but they’re due for the same level regression. 

    Lions – Over 9.5 (Model = 13)

    Matt: The model has them for 13 wins, which I’m trying to wrap my head around, but the over under set at 9.5 and I like the over.

    Bryce: I think that’s a very risky proposition. This isn’t a situation like the 49ers, where basically every spot on the roster is better than positional average, except quarterback. Jared Goff is probably a little bit better than a Brock Purdy, but we’ve done this song and dance before.

    Alex: I think Bryce is arguing that Jared Goff has within his range of outcomes to be good enough to lead a double-digit win team. But it might not be something that he would choose as his expectation.

    Bryce: Yeah, I also think within that range of outcomes, he could be a complete dumpster fire.

    Bears – Under 7.5 (Model = 5.5)

    Matt: Their line is 7.5. That seems unbelievably high to me. Our model has them at 5.5. That sounds more accurate. Another easy pick.

    Alex: You’re out on Justin Fields, huh?

    Matt: I didn’t say that. I’m out on his team. I’m not out on him.

    James: Did this team do anything in the offseason to get better? Yeah, they got a DJ Moore, but I don’t know defensively. This team still isn’t great. I think it’s asking a lot for a four-win bump from what they were last year. 

    Buccaneers – Under 6.5 (Model = 4.5)

    Alex: The division is not awesome, but I’m a little higher on the other teams in the NFC South. I think there’s a pretty high probability that the Bucs are the worst team in that division, and there’s enough range of outcomes for the other teams in the NFC South where a couple of them are actually kind of good that I think that’ll contribute a little bit. But it’s mostly just, like, the quarterback situation drops off a cliff and everybody else is just kind of a year older.

    Packers – Under 7.5 (Model = 5.5)

    Bryce: Rodgers is obviously gone, but he’s so far gone. As great as he was, he was so far gone last year and we have no idea what Jordan Love is.

    The defense is weird because they have some really talented players at some really key positions, like Jaire Alexander and Rashawn Gary, but there’s a lot of holes in that defense in general. (They were) an eight-win team last year with Rodgers, and things don’t be seem to be getting better there.

    James: I think this is a team where you can absolutely look alt win totals. If you think that the drop off is a lot, then you can take an under 4.5, under 5.5 at a better number. If you think Love can take off, then bet higher than 9 wins. I think the extreme outcomes for this team are the better value.

    Falcons – Over 8.5 (Model = 9.5)

    James: You have no idea what Desmond Ritter is. Defensively, though, this team’s putting some things together…. I kind of like the upside with this team, the division’s in flux, like the whole NFC is. Theme of the day.

    Matt: My concern is the defense. I think the defense is trash. I have concerns about their strength being at safety. I don’t really know how you build a defense that way. I think that they have weaknesses at corner, in pass rush, and in run defense. So it’s hard to say that I find them to be very strong in defense in any meaningful regard.

    Panthers – Over 7.5 (Model = 9.5)

    James: I like the coaching staff that the Panthers brought in with Frank Reich and Josh McCown, and Ejiro Evero is a really good get…. I think bringing him in with having guys like Brian Burns and Jaycee Horn coming back from injury, this Panthers defense – last year 20th in EPA per play on defense – it’s not great, but I think they’re certainly upside there with the new scheme that Evero brings in.

    Now obviously it’s not one of those rookie quarterback situations where you frankly just don’t know. But I think there’s a lot of good things in place that the Panthers could potentially get over this win total, especially with that division that they’re in.

    Alex: I wish I liked their offense better. I think trading out DJ Moore for Adam Thielen is not inspiring a lot of confidence.

    Bryce: I absolutely hate it. I’m not a believer in Bryce Young at all.

    49ers – Over 11.5 (Model = 12)

    Bryce: I don’t like betting on bad and or inconsistent quarterbacks, and the 49ers, I think, don’t even have their quarterback situation figured out this year, but that team is so talented. The defense is really, really good. Their offensive skill positions are really good.

    They won 13 games last year, Brock Purdy starting in five of them. I’m not sure how much the quarterback situation even matters at this point. With Kyle Shanahan, plus the division is not very good. I’ll take it over 11.5, but I don’t think it’s a slam dunk.

    Saints – Over 9.5 (Model = 10.5)

    Alex: Again, the NFC South has a lot of uncertainty…. I feel probably the best about them in the division.

    This is another team where I don’t expect them to win 12 games, but I think that they have decent quarterback play and pretty good skill position players.

    I’m responsible for Total Points, and Total Points loves Derek Carr. Ipso facto, I love Derek Carr. Also, “love” is a very strong word.

    Rams – Under 6.5 (Model = 4.5)

    Matt: Aaron Donald represents one of the only bright spots remaining on their defense. I look at the Sonar Depth Chart that we have for them at The 33rd Team, and it’s really trash all around. The offensive line was garbage last year. I think the offensive line promises to be garbage again.

    They tried to trade Stafford because he’s a shell of himself and is no longer a healthy, functioning NFL quarterback. So, for a lot of reasons I want the under on the Rams.

    Bryce: I’m going to get you a shirt that says, “I am not scared of Aaron Donald.”

    Cardinals – Under 4.5 (Model = 4)

    Matt: Number one, pull up their depth chart. It is really, really ugly looking at a lot of positions. But even more so than that, I’m worried about this franchise.

    I think this franchise has already reached rock bottom and they’re in the phase over the next year where they can’t even begin to climb out of rock bottom. I think that the sort of malice that’s gone on in this franchise is on that level.

    Unlike the way that I like the over on the Texans wins because they don’t have to tank, I think this team is organizationally tanking this year. 

    Commanders – Under 6.5, Over 6.5 (Model = 5)

    Alex (under): The Commanders have a couple of guys on both sides of the ball. And their quarterback situation is not great. And the Commanders are in that same category as the Panthers. It’s just that they have less upside, in my opinion.

    I tend to lean towards whatever the quarterback situation is and kind of trust that. And so that’s why I’m on the low end for the Commanders.

    Bryce: I would feel a bit worse about taking the Commanders under if I had any confidence that they would name Jacoby Brissett the starter, because I think Brissett is actually somewhat capable, whereas I think Sam Howell will be a dumpster fire.

    James (over): I want to call out all of you Sam Howell haters, because I like the Commanders over this year. That defense last year was still 5th in EPA per play. And if they can do something with Taylor Heinicke the last three years and have a minimum 7 wins from each season, I like this team.

    I like the weapons that they have. Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, both a solid 1-2 punch at receiver.

    Brian Robinson came into his own at the end of last year, as well. It’s a new day in Washington. It’s a new day, and I think they break through the 6.5 wins this year.

     Cowboys – Over 9.5 (Model = 8)

    Bryce: I am an outspoken believer in Dak Prescott. I think they have strengths elsewhere on the roster. I really like CeeDee Lamb. The offensive line is not as dominant as they were during the first couple of years of Dak’s career, but they’re still pretty good. I think they have some difference-makers on defense.

    Matt: I had a really hard time with them because that over/under was set at 9.5. And the model came out at just eight wins for them. So this was one of those situations where I was kind of a ‘stay away.’

    James: When our model was run, this win total was definitely the one that I disagreed with the most. I was really surprised that it came out that low on the Cowboys. 

    Seahawks – No bet at 8.5 (Model = 7)

    James: I’d kind of lean towards their over, mostly because of the fact that the NFC is garbage, and in terms of a staple, this is probably as close as it gets to a fringe, playoff, wildcard level team.

    In the NFC West, we’re pretty low on the Rams and the Cardinals. The 49ers have some question marks at quarterback. For the Seahawks, if somehow Geno Smith can turn into a Top 10 quarterback again, then they certainly have the weapons there. I think I can see ‘Hawks going over this win total.

    Matt: Playing the Rams a couple of times, playing the Cardinals a couple of times, if Geno can be as good as he was last year, certainly you would think that they hit it.

  • The Effect of Turf On Injuries In The NFL

    The Effect of Turf On Injuries In The NFL

    This article originally appeared in The 2021 Football Rookie Handbook.

    Most people who have played football on turf will generally agree that—well—it hurts! Even as technology has improved and artificial surfaces have gotten better, NFLPA President JC Tretter made the case as recently as 2020 that the NFL should move away from turf fields for both practices and games because of the impact that they can have on players’ bodies.[1] He cited injury data from the NFL that showed elevated injury risk on turf relative to grass to back up his point. Specifically, he pointed to non-contact lower extremity injuries as the main culprit.

    Previous research jibes with Tretter’s argument to varying degrees. Our friend, Dr. Zach Binney, wrote for Football Outsiders in 2017 about how certain turf types performed slightly more poorly in terms of injury risk when compared to grass, but he stopped short of making any definitive conclusions.[2] Additionally, Loughran et al. wrote about knee injury incidence on turf versus grass in college football in the American Journal of Sports Medicine in 2019, finding that artificial turf was a significant risk factor for certain knee ligament injuries.[3]

    Since we have the most comprehensive football injury database in existence, we decided to take a look to see what we could find.

    Are NFL injury rates higher on turf or grass?

    In the NFL over the last four years, there have been both more total injuries and more injuries forcing players to leave the game on games played on turf relative to grass.

    NFL Injuries by Field Type (2017-2020, Regular Season only)
    Field Type Games Injuries Per Game Left the Field Per Game
    Grass 587 5.0 4.1
    Turf 437 5.4 4.5
    Percent Change +7.8% +9.2%

    This indicates that about 48 extra injuries that cause players to leave the field are occurring each regular season needlessly because almost half of NFL teams play their home games on turf.

    To be fair, these numbers could be biased by the teams that play in the stadiums. In other words, any team-level factor from the players to the training staff to the cafeteria could be a confounding factor that is actually responsible for the injury rates. To account for this, we can look at just away players to help control for the fact that the home team’s players make up about half of all snaps played in any given stadium.

    NFL Injuries by Field Type (Away Players only)
    Field Type Games Injuries Per Game Left the Field Per Game
    Grass 587 2.5 2.1
    Turf 437 2.8 2.3
    Percent Change 8.8% 7.7%

    The effect appears to be about as large for the road teams, indicating that our initial finding isn’t a result of home teams biasing the study. For the rest of the article, we will generally use the totals across home and away players for the sake of sample size, but we will indicate if/where there are any differences of note.

    As an aside, if you notice that away players are generally slightly more likely to be injured and leave the game than home players, that is an astute observation by you. This result is consistent from season to season, but it’s not the subject of this article.

    Which body parts are most affected by turf?

    Previous research suggests that lower extremity injuries, specifically, are more likely to see an increase on turf. We found this to be true in the case of ankle/foot injuries, but not so for the rest of the legs, including knees.

    NFL Injuries Per Game by Field Type and Body Part
    Body Part Grass Turf Percent Change
    Head 0.76 0.90 +18%
    Shoulder 0.39 0.42 +9%
    Arm/Hand 0.42 0.43 +1%
    Core 0.34 0.37 +9%
    Upper Legs / Hips 0.46 0.46 -1%
    Lower Legs / Knee 1.25 1.23 -2%
    Ankle/Foot 0.96 1.05 +10%

    It’s worth noting that these results are generally very consistent when we split the sample to look at away players only, injuries that forced the player to leave the field only, and both.

    One thing that sticks out is that shoulder, core, and to an even larger extent head injuries are occurring considerably more often. While it’s not clear why this is happening, when we consider that each team hosts eight regular season games per year, the increase of 0.14 head injuries per game represents an additional 1.12 head injuries per team that chooses to play on turf per season. Another way to think of that is that each year that each turf team continues to play on their surface, they are adding more than one unnecessary head injury every time.

    Still, the most surprising finding was that lower leg and knee injuries decreased on turf fields when compared to grass fields. While the difference was small and inconsistent from year to year, previous research had indicated that these were precisely the injuries that turf seemed to induce, so the finding that there is no real difference in this sample is notable.

    One potential explanation for this is that the makers of the artificial turf that the NFL teams have been using have been able to focus their technological improvements on this previously identified weakness. If that is the case and not a four-year anomaly, then hopefully head, shoulder, core, and ankle/foot injuries can see a positive change as well.

    What types of injuries are occurring more (or less) on turf?

    The specific injury diagnoses that had been found by previous research to increase on turf included knee and ankle sprains. To be clear, sprains include what people colloquially describe as tears. Anytime a ligament is sprained, that just means that there is some level of tearing going on.

    Percent Difference in NFL Injury Diagnoses Per Game on Turf Compared to Grass
    Diagnosis All Players Away Players Only
    Knee Sprain -3% -6%
    Ankle Sprain +4% +6%

    The numbers mostly match up with what we saw when breaking things down by body part. In this sample, knee sprains are slightly down on turf and ankle sprains are slightly up, but neither change by significant amounts. The magnitude of these changes were much smaller than what was observed by previous research, which in some cases found double-digit increases on turf.

    How do contact vs non-contact injuries factor into this?

    NFL Injuries per Game by Field and Contact Type (2017-2020)
    Field Type Non-Contact Contact with Ground Contact with Player
    Grass 0.82 0.80 3.39
    Turf 0.80 0.85 3.76
    Percent Change -3% +6% +11%

    Once again, our findings are at odds with previous research. We’re again seeing a slight decrease in injury rates on turf relative to grass where we expected to see an increase, this time in the form of non-contact injuries. Still, injuries involving contact between two players are much more common, and the magnitude of increase in those sorts of injuries on turf compared to grass offsets the decrease in non-contact injuries several times over.

    The effects are consistent whether we look at all players, only away players, only injuries that cause players to leave the field, or away players whose injuries cause them to leave the field.

    Percent Difference in NFL Injuries Per Game By Contact Type

    On Turf Compared to Grass
    Contact Type All Injuries Injuries to Away Players Only Significant Injuries (Left The Field) Away Players & Left The Field
    Non-Contact -3% -14% +1% -13%
    Contact with Ground +6% +8% +10% +8%
    Contact with Player +11% +15% +11% +13%

    What about non-contact lower body injuries?

    JC Tretter mentioned three specific data points when he called on the NFL teams to adopt grass practice and playing surfaces in September of 2020:

    “Specifically, players have a 28% higher rate of non-contact lower extremity injuries when playing on artificial turf. Of those non-contact injuries, players have a 32% higher rate of non-contact knee injuries on turf and a staggering 69% higher rate of non-contact foot/ankle injuries on turf compared to grass.”

    While he was citing the NFL’s own injury data, which is both from different seasons (2012 to 2018) than our dataset covers and seems to mix data from practices and games, these results were not at all consistent with our findings.

    Percent Difference in NFL Non-Contact Injuries Per Game

    By Body Part on Turf Compared to Grass
    Body Part All Injuries Injuries to Away Players Only Significant Injuries (Left The Field) Away Players & Left The Field
    Lower Extremity -12% -17% -11% -15%
    Knee -18% -30% -16% -23%
    Ankle/Foot -3% +6% -2% 0%

    Just about any way we sliced it, non-contact lower extremity injuries were reduced, not increased, on turf relative to grass. It was “Contact with Player” injuries, which are much more common to begin with, that drove the overall increase in injury rates on turf.

    Last Word

    The SIS Injury Database matched previous research on the topic of grass versus turf in that we have observed a clear increase in injuries per game in stadiums with turf in NFL games over the last four years. However, our findings do not match prior research in that we did not find an increase in non-contact and/or knee injuries. Instead, we found that injuries occurring because of contact between players were overwhelmingly what accounted for the increase in injuries. Somewhat concerningly, we saw an increase in head injuries on turf, so we will keep a close eye on how these trends continue to develop in the years to come.

    [1]JC Tretter, “Only Natural Grass Can Level The NFL’s Playing Field,” NFLPA.com, https://nflpa.com/posts/only-natural-grass-can-level-the-nfls-playing-field.

    [2]Zachary Binney, “Turf Type and NFL Injuries Part I,” FootballOutsiders.com, 2017, https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/turf-type-and-nfl-injuries-part-i.

    [3]Galvin J Loughran, Christian T Vulpis, Jordan P Murphy, David A Weiner, Steven J Svoboda, Richard Y Hinton, Dave P Milzman, “Incidence of Knee Injuries on Artificial Turf Versus Natural Grass in National Collegiate Athletic Association American Football: 2004-2005 Through 2013-2014 Seasons,” American Journal of Sports Medicine, May 2019,  https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30995074/.

     

  • NFL Draft AnalySIS: Miami Dolphins

    NFL Draft AnalySIS: Miami Dolphins

    The State of the Dolphins

    The Miami Dolphins have had quite the offseason! 

    After a 9-8 season, they fired Brian Flores, which he quickly responded to by filing a lawsuit. While it seems that the plan was to bring in Tom Brady and Sean Payton to run the team (allegedly), the Dolphins eventually set their sights in a different direction. 

    Mike McDaniel has taken over as Head Coach, and the Dolphins offense around Tua Tagovailoa promises to look very different this year. After trading a load of draft capital for Tyreek Hill, Miami will have one of the fastest pairs of wide receivers in the league, but it isn’t scheduled to pick until a compensatory selection in the 3rd round at 102 overall.

    #102 Overall

    Coby Bryant – CB – Cincinnati

    Bryant doesn’t have elite speed and needs to become a better tackler, but is an intelligent and athletic corner who has the field awareness and ball skills to be a long-time starter at the next level.

    It might be a longshot to hope that he will still be available, but if the other half of Cincinnati’s excellent CB duo (along with Sauce Gardner) is still available at the end of Round 3, that would present excellent value to a team that needs some more cost-controlled options at the position.

    Matthew Butler – DT – Tennessee

    Butler has the first-step explosion, heavy hand punch, and nonstop motor to be disruptive, but his lack of strength and agility likely keep him from being a three-down starter at the next level.

    Butler seems likely to be available at this slot, and he could provide some much needed depth on Miami’s defensive line. He’s naturally slotted in as a reserve 5-technique with the ability to rush from the inside on passing downs.

    Isaiah Likely – Tight End – Coastal Carolina

    Likely is a unique hybrid tight end with the athletic, receiving skills needed to pose a threat to defenses, but he’ll need to improve as a standard blocker to become a complete player.

    The Dolphins are in no position to be drafting for need without a pick in the top 100, so even though they already have Mike Gesicki on a franchise tag, Likely would upgrade the receiving ability of the position group immediately and potentially provide roster flexibility in the future.

    #125 Overall

    John Ridgeway – NT – Arkansas

    Ridgeway has the size, strength, and body control to be an effective two-gap run defender, but he lacks the athleticism or mismatch ability to be an effective pass rusher.

    If the Dolphins elect to fortify their defensive front at the Nose, the former small schooler, Ridgeway, would present an interesting alternative to Raekwon Davis and John Jenkins.

    Justyn Ross – WR – Clemson

    Ross has the combination of size, athleticism, and quick-twitch to contribute in a variety of ways in a receiving room at the next level, but must overcome injury and production concerns to do so.

    After adding Tyreek Hill and Credric Wilson to a team that already includes Jaylen Waddle, McDaniel can afford to take a shot on a big-bodied talent despite the injury risk.

    Amare Barno – Edge – Virginia Tech

    Barno has the athleticism, speed, and explosion to get after the quarterback, but needs to get stronger in the run game and become a more polished pass rusher in order to be a three-down player at the next level.

    The Dolphins are one injury away from having major issues finding somebody to come off the edge. You can never have too many pass rushers, and Barno will provide depth while he learns the ins and outs of the position.

    To learn more about the Dolphins and their needs, visit their team page on our NFL Draft website here.