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Category: 2023 MLB

  • Stat of the Week: Total Runs Leaders – Shohei Ohtani & Everybody Else

    Stat of the Week: Total Runs Leaders – Shohei Ohtani & Everybody Else

    To call Shohei Ohtani the overwhelming favorite for AL MVP might be doing a disservice to the word “overwhelming.”

    By any player evaluation method, Ohtani comes out far superior to any other player. That includes the SIS R&D creation, Total Runs, which sums a player’s offensive value (Batting Runs Created), baserunning value (Baserunning Runs), defensive value (Defensive Runs Saved), and pitching value (Pitching Runs Created) and adds a positional adjustment.

    The statistic gives a good idea of a player’s all-around value.

    Here are the leaders in Total Runs through Thursday.

    Player Team Total Runs
    Shohei Ohtani Angels 187
    Ronald Acuña Jr. Braves 123
    Freddie Freeman Dodgers 116
    Mookie Betts Dodgers 115
    Marcus Semien Rangers 113
    Matt Olson Braves 105
    Ha-Seong Kim Padres 105

    Ohtani’s 64-run lead over Ronald Acuña Jr. far surpasses the lead that any Total Runs leader had over those who finished No. 2 in that stat in its 21-year history.

    The previous largest lead for No. 1 over No. 2 was by Ohtani, who outpaced Marcus Semien, 194-161, a 33-run difference in 2021. Ohtani beat Aaron Judge, 199-176 in 2022 for the next-highest differential, 23 runs.

    There is typically not a large gap between the top two players in baseball. From 2003 to 2019, the average differential between No. 1 and No. 2 was 7 runs. In six instances, the top two either finished tied or one run apart.

    But Ohtani is a special player and a special case given his prowess as both a hitter and pitcher. His 108 Batting Runs Created are 1 run shy of the MLB lead and he ranks 6th in Pitching Runs Created (72). The combination of the two makes this season among the most amazing in MLB history.

    The AL MVP Race

    Rather than asking who’s going to win the AL MVP, the better question is: Who’s comprising the rest of the Top 5?

    This is the current AL Total Runs leaderboard.

    Player Team Total Runs
    Shohei Ohtani Angels 187
    Marcus Semien Rangers 113
    Wander Franco Rays 102
    Adolis Garcia Rangers 100
    Luis Robert Jr. White Sox 100

    Semien could be on his way to another Top 5 MVP finish. He’s finished 3rd twice, in 2019 and 2021. Semien has an .812 OPS, nearly 100 points higher than the average second baseman.

    Rays shortstops Wander Franco doesn’t have offensive numbers quite as good as his teammate, Yandy Díaz or other shortstops like Corey Seager, Bo Bichette and Bobby Witt Jr. But Franco’s defense – an AL-best 16 Runs Saved – boosts him to 3rd in Total Runs.

    Rangers right fielder Adolis García and White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. are tied for 4th. García is on track to post career highs in every offensive stat. He leads the AL in RBI and ranks Top-6 in slugging percentage, OPS,  and home runs. He’s also tied with Fernando Tatis Jr. for the MLB lead in Outfield Arm Runs Saved.

    Robert Jr. has 31 home runs and 16 stolen bases at a premium position for the vastly-underperforming White Sox.

    But it’s fair to say that the Total Runs leaderboard won’t fully define the AL MVP race. Case in point, this morning on the MLB Network show, MLB Central, analyst Mark DeRosa listed his No. 2 through 5 MVP picks as Seager, Adley Rutschman,  Bichette, and Díaz. None of those players rank in the Top 5 in Total Runs. So it’s fair to say that there will be plenty of debate on much of the ballot as there are many strong candidates.

    But there’s no debate whatsoever about who’s No. 1.

  • The Defense Behind A Chicago Hope

    The Defense Behind A Chicago Hope

    On June 8 the Cubs hit their low point of the season, 10 games under .500 after getting swept by the Angels. They were 26-36, 6 1/2 games out of the wild card.

    I’d like to tell you that the Cubs played a good defensive game the next day. They didn’t. They mishandled a hit, botched a foul pop up and bobbled a slow roller.

    But I can tell you that if we measure from June 9 forward that the Cubs’ playing pretty good defense is a big part of this turnaround.

    The Cubs rank tied for 3rd in Defensive Runs Saved this season after ranking 21st in 2022. They currently have the biggest improvement in Runs Saved ranking from last year to this year.

    Team Defensive Runs Saved
    Blue Jays 61
    Brewers 46
    Cubs 31
    Padres 31

    When we isolate skill and just look at that (in other words, discounting positioning), the Cubs fielders have the second-most Defensive Runs Saved in MLB since June 9 trailing only the Brewers.

    What’s the story of their season from a defensive perspective? There have been two things that have been the biggest keys.

    The middle infield

    The Cubs made it a point to improve their middle-infield defense this offseason. After signing Dansby Swanson to play shortstop and moving Nico Hoerner from shortstop to full-time second base, the Cubs went into the season with arguably the best second base-shortstop combo in MLB.

    It’s lived up to the billing. 

     

    Cubs second basemen and shortstop have combined for 23 Runs Saved, the most in MLB in 2023. Swanson ranks second to Wander Franco in Runs Saved at shortstop with 12. Hoerner has 6 Runs Saved at second base, which ranks tied for 6th, and his fill-ins also have 3 Runs Saved.

    Most Defensive Runs Saved – 2023 Middle Infields

    Team Defensive Runs Saved
    Cubs 23
    Rays 18
    Rangers 12
    Yankees 11
    Orioles 11
    Dodgers 10

    Outfield Improvement

    After spending the first two months of the season with a negative Runs Saved total, 2022 Gold Glove-winning left fielder Ian Happ has turned it around. He has 3 Defensive Runs Saved and a positional high 7 assists without the help of a cutoff man. His 7 Runs Saved in left field since June 9 rank second to Steven Kwan’s 11. 

     

    Though Happ isn’t on pace to match his numbers from 2022, the rest of the Cubs outfield is going to far surpass their totals from what was a rough 2022.

    Cubs center fielders ranked last in MLB last season with -19 Runs Saved and only three teams had a right fielder total worse than the Cubs’ -9. This season, with Cody Bellinger and Mike Tauchman patrolling center, the Cubs have improved their Runs Saved total to -1 Run Saved. 

    An 18-run jump makes a big difference regardless of where you’re starting from. So does the 9-run jump that the Cubs have made in right field thanks to better play from Seiya Suzuki (2 Runs Saved in right field after totaling -4 in his rookie season). And some of the plays these outfielders are making are highly impactful

     The Cubs offense is averaging better than 7 runs per game in the last 23 games. We can’t dispute that it’s the primary reason why the Cubs find themselves in the Wild Card race. But make sure to take note of their defense too, as it has made and can continue to make the difference between winning and losing. 

  • SIS Defenders of the Month for July: Matt Chapman, Brenton Doyle, Bobby Witt Jr.

    SIS Defenders of the Month for July: Matt Chapman, Brenton Doyle, Bobby Witt Jr.

    Photos: Gavin Napier, Mark Goldman, Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire

    It can sometimes be difficult to form consensus on our selections for The SIS/Fielding Bible Awards Defensive Player of the Month. That’s understandable because defense can be hard to judge in a small sample size.

    Case in point, our ballot for July. Three of my colleagues filled out votes for first and second place and three candidates netted the same point totals.

    So rather than break the tie with my own vote, I’ve decided not to limit the honor to one winner and instead go with three. Congratulations to Blue Jays third baseman Matt Chapman, Rockies center fielder Brenton Doyle and Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. who share Defensive Player of the Month for July.

     All three of them are good stories.

    This year is a bounceback season for Chapman after recovering from a hip injury the last couple of seasons. His 7 Runs Saved and 7 Good Fielding Plays in July were the most of any third baseman. He has 13 Runs Saved overall, 2nd only to Ryan McMahon at the position. Those 13 Runs Saved are more than he had in 2021 and 2022 combined. Plays like this one look like ones that Chapman made when he saved 28 runs in 2019. And he started off August well too.

    Doyle, a rookie, led all center fielders with 6 Runs Saved in July. He also had 6 Good Fielding Plays, the 2nd-most by a center fielder for the month (Myles Straw had 9).

    Coors Field is an incredibly difficult place to play half of your games in center field. In fact, no other player has had more than 6 Runs Saved in a season as a Rockies center fielder since SIS began tracking the stat in 2003. Doyle ended July with 9 Runs Saved at the position. Plays like this show that he’s a legit candidate to win a Fielding Bible Award this year.

    To hear more from Doyle, check out our interview with him earlier this season on The Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast. 

    Witt has shown considerable progress in his 2nd MLB season for a rebuilding Royals team. In 2022 he finished last among shortstops with -18 Runs Saved. In July of 2023 he tied Francisco Lindor and Corey Seager as shortstop leaders with 5 Runs Saved and ended July at -1 for the season.

    Also notable is that Witt had 5 Good Fielding Plays and only 2 Misplays & Errors. I mention that because in 2022, Witt’s ratio of Good Plays to Misplays & Errors was 17-to-37. He ended July of 2023 with a ratio of 19-to-23 for the season. Last year, he might’ve rushed a play like this one against Anthony Rizzo, but this past month, he played it exactly as he should have. Exactly as a Player of the Month should have. 

    This trio joins Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes (April), Orioles left fielder Austin Hays and Blue Jays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier (May), and Brewers right fielder Blake Perkins (June) as winners of our Player of the Month award this season.