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  • Which MLB teams will be most improved on defense in 2020?

    Most of the time when we focus on whether a baseball team got better in the offseason, we take a close look at its hitting or its pitching. But what about its defense?

    This is a little harder to figure out, but that’s why we’re here.  We’re looking forward to closely tracking defensive performance in the shortened 2020 season. We have some new methods for doing so, which you can read about here. For now, let’s focus on the question in the headline.

    So who got better in 2020? Here are four teams we like to improve.

    Rays

    The Rays finished seventh in the majors in Defensive Runs Saved last season and built on that by crafting an outfield that will likely be very good

    Tampa Bay traded for Hunter Renfroe, who played all three outfield spots well last season, saving 23 runs between the three spots. He tied Cody Bellinger for second in the majors in that stat, trailing only Victor Robles.

    The Rays then made a deal with the Padres for Manuel Margot, who will probably play a corner spot since Kevin Kiermaier blocks his path in center field. Margot has saved at least six runs in each of his three seasons as a full-time player and history has shown that center fielders who move to corner spots tend to put up better numbers than they did in center.

    The Rays outfield finished with 12 Runs Saved last year, which ranked 11th in the majors (the outfield ranked in the top four in each of the previous four seasons). If their regulars stay healthy, this could be a top-five defensive outfield again.

    Dodgers

    The Dodgers don’t look much different in the field than they did last season with one exception, and what an exception it is in three-time Fielding Bible Award winner in right field, Mookie Betts.

    The Dodgers were already great in right field with Cody Bellinger there in 2019. But Betts’ acquisition allows Bellinger to move to center field, where the Dodgers recorded 2 Runs Saved (in other words, basically average). Bellinger has 11 Runs Saved in just under 700 career innings there. You might see highlight-reel plays on a nightly basis with Bellinger and Betts playing at the same time.

    Twins

    This one comes with some qualifications:

    If Josh Donaldson is as good as he was last season (15 Runs Saved at third base, third-most in MLB)

    And if Miguel Sano takes to first base alright (he’s played 223 innings there)

    And if Mitch Garver maintains the improvements he made from 2018 to 2019 without last year’s catching coach there to help him (Garver went from -17 Runs Saved to 1 Run Saved under the guidance of Tanner Swanson, who is now with the Yankees)

    And if Byron Buxton is healthy for almost a full season, like he was in 2017 (he played 137 games in center then, saving 23 runs, but played only 113 the last two years).

    Than the Twins should be a considerably improved defensive team. They finished with three Runs Saved last season and still have issues in their middle infield, but they have pieces in place to be better than average in 2020.

    Pirates

    At catcher, the Pirates have made Jacob Stallings their everyday guy. One of the reasons driving that is that Stallings showed himself to be a valuable defender, saving 14 runs in 463 innings last year. He rated above-average at pitch framing, pitch blocking and limiting opponents’ stolen bases (he caught 7-of-19 attempting against him and picked off three others).

    They’ve also gained considerably at that spot by replacing Elias Diaz behind the plate with Luke Maile. Diaz had a worst-in-MLB -21 Runs Saved last season and was one of the game’s worst pitch framers. Maile’s specialty is pitch framing. He’s saved 20 runs as a backup the last four seasons. He’s fifth in Runs Saved per 1,000 innings in that span (among catchers who have played at least 1,000 innings).

    The Pirates also look to have gained defensively by trading Starling Marte to the Diamondbacks. That sounds a little odd given that Marte was an excellent left fielder, but that success didn’t translate to center field, where he cost the team seven runs the last two seasons.

    The more the Pirates play Jarrod Dyson in center field, the better their defense should be, so long as Dyson doesn’t get old fast.

    That means having to live with Dyson’s limited offensive game. Dyson has saved 62 runs with his defense the last five seasons. Just over half of those Runs Saved (34) have come in center field. He’s averaging nearly 14 Runs Saved per 1,000 innings there in that time, and has fared even better when he plays the corners (as most outfielders do).

    The Pirates also added J.T. Riddle, who saved 12 runs at shortstop for the Marlins in 2018. He played mostly center field in limited MLB time last season and was out with a forearm strain in the second half of the season. He’ll probably be in a utility role for this team.

    All these additions do shore up some defensive weaknesses, but the Pirates have a long climb up (as they do in other areas too). They finished 24th in Defensive Runs Saved in 2019.

  • New baseball podcast: José Mota on the interesting Angels

    On this episode of the Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast, Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) is joined by longtime Angels broadcaster José Mota (@JoseMota05) to preview the upcoming season.

    Mota provides perspective on what to watch for from several Angels key players, giving insight on how Mike Trout works at-bats (1:30), explaining what Anthony Rendon will bring (4:36), sharing what Andrelton Simmons does that makes him a special defender (5:55), and providing insight on why David Fletcher is a hidden gem (8:51).

    José also talks about what it’s been like to watch (and learn Japanese from) Shohei Ohtani and Saya Nomura – check out Jose’s Instagram for more of that – (10:20) and explains how Albert Pujols could still be valuable (13:05).He also discusses how Joe Maddon will handle the pitching staff (15:02), how he delivers analytics to a Spanish-speaking audience (16:44), how he feels about the inevitable decline of pinch-hitter usage (his father Manny was an all-time great pinch-hitter) and how teams will strategize with the new rules in place for this season (19:25). Finally, he also tells of his family’s charity work, which can be found at Motasfaces.com. (21:55)

    And yes, we know we didn’t even get to Jo Adell! Thanks for listening. Don’t forget to rate and review. Stay well and stay safe.

  • New podcast! Bengie Molina on Pitcher-Catcher Relationships

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    On this edition of the Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast, Mark Simon ( @MarkASimonSays)asks the question – how can we measure catchers beyond pitch blocking, pitch framing, and caught stealing? Longtime former MLB catcher Bengie Molina (@BengieMolina1) , now a Spanish-language radio broadcaster for the Cardinals, tries to help us out.

    Bengie talks about the different factors that come into play for a catcher (0:57) and the different personality types he dealt with from Ramon Ortiz and Jarrod Washburn (5:32). He explains how you deal with stubborn pitchers and how he worked with the pitchers he got along with best (7:50). He also relays how things can change for a catcher in the walk back to home plate after a conference at the mound, using Yadier Molina in Game 7 of the NLCS against the Mets as an example (11:45).He offers his take on the difficulties of being a rookie catcher (14:32) and bridging the language gap by encouraging all catchers to be bilingual (16:12).

    He talks about why he likes watching Buster Posey, Salvador Perez, and his brother Yadier so much (19:24). He also discusses what he would say to someone who wants to catch like a Molina (22:12), how difficult it is to deal with foul tips off the mask (23:08), and how important it is to factor in umpires when calculating framing metrics (26:13).

    Thank you for listening. Don’t forget to rate and review. Stay safe and stay well.

  • How amazing of a defensive season could we see in 2020?

    BY ALEX VIGDERMAN

    One of the silver linings of the shortened MLB season is that we could see some outstanding small- sample performances. The Athletic’s Jayson Stark and Eno Sarris reviewed some exciting possibilities along those lines.

    Here, as we tend to do at SIS, we’ll look at things from a defensive perspective. What are the best 60-game runs of defensive excellence that we could see this season?

    To look into this question, I used our new PART Runs Saved, which we introduced earlier this year as the primary component of Defensive Runs Saved. How well has a player done in a 60-game span in a season (going back to 2013, at least)?

    Best 60-game single season PART Runs Saved performances, 2013-19

    PosPlayerSeasonPART Runs Saved
    1BFreddie Freeman201810
    2BJonathan Schoop201716
    3BMatt Chapman201919
    SSAndrelton Simmons201720
    LFAdam Duvall201814
    CFJuan Lagares201415
    RFMookie Betts201717
    Pitchers and catchers excluded because they accumulate games and PART Runs Saved differently

    First off, let’s acknowledge how impressive some of these totals are! Saving 15 runs is enough to lead the position in some seasons, and these players accomplished that over less than half a full season.

    It might not surprise you to find out that the best of the best are also quite good in short sprints. Each of Chapman, Simmons, Lagares, and Betts won the Fielding Bible Award in the season they had their outstanding stretch, and except for Lagares that wasn’t the only season they were crowned the best defender at that position.

    The outstanding runs from Freeman and Schoop are more representative of the funky results we might see in a shortened season. Both of them were below average at converting batted balls into outs over the balance of their outstanding seasons, with Freeman costing the Braves two runs and Schoop costing the Orioles five runs.

    While we’re not in the business of disparaging players in any way, it’s only fair to look at the other side of the coin, the players who were exceptionally poor defensively in a short spurt.

    Poorest 60-game single season PART Runs Saved performances, 2013-19

    PosPlayerSeasonPART Runs Saved
    1BLuke Voit2019-10
    2BRickie Weeks Jr.2014-16
    3BColin Moran2019-16
    SSEduardo Nuñez2013-21
    LFTrey Mancini2018-12
    CFCharlie Blackmon2018-20
    RFMelky Cabrera2019-13
    Pitchers and catchers excluded because they accumulate games and PART Runs Saved differently

    Like with the runs of excellence, this list includes some of the most outstanding single-season performances we’ve seen. Blackmon and Nuñez finished with the most and second-most runs cost in a single season in the PART era, with Nuñez doing so in roughly half of a full season of innings.

    Which of the perennial Fielding Bible Award contenders will dominate this sprint of a season? Who will crash that party with a surprising stretch of excellence? We’ll know in a couple months!

  • Look forward to seeing the sprints, slides, dives, and jumps

    By MARK SIMON

    We’ve previously noted that we are looking forward to seeing home run robberies and great shortstop defense when baseball returns again. We’re also looking forward to seeing the play that requires a burst of speed or leaving one’s feet, which does encompass home run robberies, but also covers a lot more.

    At Sports Info Solutions, we have a few proxies that we can use to measure this type of effort. We track every time a fielder sprints, slides, dives, and jumps.

    For example, the outfield leader in sprinting catches over the last three seasons is Ender Inciarte of the Braves with 210, well more than anyone else. Inciarte led the majors in sprinting catches in both 2017 and 2018, but missed too much of 2019 to be near the top. Victor Robles of the Nationals and Harrison Bader of the Cardinals led MLB with 43.

    Among infielders, Freddy Galvis has the most since 2017 with 202. Matt Chapman of the Athletics led all infielders last season with 51.

    Which fielders have been most willing to get their jerseys dirty? Let’s look at the leaders in sliding and diving plays. Over the last three seasons, the outfield leader in those types of plays is Alex Gordon of the Royals with 40. Bryce Harper acquitted himself well in the Phillies outfield last season, leading MLB with 21 sliding or diving plays, seven more than runner-up Kevin Pillar.

    Among infielders, Brian Dozier has the most since 2017 with 86, just edging out Dee Gordon’s 84. Last season, Mets first baseman Pete Alonso didn’t just lead the majors in home runs. He also led all players at any position with 32 sliding and diving plays.

    Lastly, let’s look at jumping catches. We noted in our previous work that Kevin Kiermaier was quite the home run robber. So it’s no surprise that he leads all outfielders with 41 jumping catches over the last three seasons, with an MLB-best 18 last season.

    Among infielders, Rougned Odor has the most jumping catches over the last three seasons with 29. The 2019 leader was Odor’s teammate, Elvis Andrus, with 13.

    Hopefully we’ll be able to see these kinds of plays again sometime soon, whether it’s in a couple of weeks or in the future. It’s something to look forward to.

  • New podcast: Brandon Guyer moves into mentoring

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    On this episode, Mark Simon talks to Brandon Guyer ( @BrandonGuyer), who just retired after an 8-year, 500+-game MLB career in which he was known for his ability to hit left-handed pitching and his penchant for being hit by a pitch. Guyer (with the help of his wife) has just written an 80-page book, The Fully Equipped Athlete and started a new business to mentor aspiring athletes ( fullyequippedathlete.com). We often talk on this podcast about the statistical and physical side of the game. Brandon talks about giving athletes the mental foundation to succeed.

    Guyer discusses what went into his retirement decision, how he looks back on his career, getting hit by pitches, and hitting lefties so well (1:13). He then walks us through 2 plate appearances from Game 7 of the 2016 World Series and what allowed him to come through them successfully (7:39). From there, the conversation shifts to the book, what it was like to put everything he learned on paper, why humility was his top point of emphasis, his friendship with a diverse group of players such as Chris Archer and Yan Gomes, and whose words are most impactful to him (11:43).

    He also talks about learning proper breath control and meditation and how that allowed him to maximize his talents (22:08). Lastly he talks about his overall goals for the future as he makes the transition to dad/businessman (26:55).

    Thanks for tuning in. Don’t forget to rate and review us. Stay safe and stay well.

  • Looking forward to shortstopping greatness whenever MLB returns

    By MARK SIMON

    Much like the home run robbery, I think we can all agree that great shortstopping is a baseball work of art. It’s another of those things we’re so looking forward to this season. Shortstops are referred to as wizards or magicians for their artistry at the position. And they can do it in so many ways.

    We’re looking forward to their return to the field so much, whether it be this season or in another. These players especially:

    Almighty Andrelton!

    Andrelton Simmons has 75 Runs Saved over the last three seasons and remember that he was limited to 102 games at shortstop last season due to injury. The next-most Runs Saved at the position in that span is Nick Ahmed with 52.

    There’s only one Ozzie Smith, but Andrelton Simmons is making his case that he’s this generation’s version of The Wizard of Oz. His shortstopping is way better than any other current player and even at age 30, we can’t wait to see him again.

    El Mago

    Speaking of wizardry, we have to say it will be great to watch Javier Báez’s magic in the near future. Báez has a flare to his game that should be universally appealing. He’s a three-time winner of our Fielding Bible multi-position award who more than ably made the move to being a full-time shortstop. He tied for the lead in Runs Saved at the position last season and is much more than just a guy who makes fancy tags.

    The steady hand
    In talking with Ozzie Smith for The Fielding Bible – Volume V, he noted that the likely reason that Paul DeJong tied Báez for the lead among shortstops in Runs Saved last season was because DeJong was so good at making the routine play. Indeed, DeJong isn’t flashy. He ranks last in our Good Fielding Plays per 1,000 innings tally among everyday players.  But he covers the ground he needs to and occasionally does something to make you appreciate the work he puts in.

    Ahmed falls into this category as well, though he’s a little flashier than DeJong. In particular, Ahmed excels at making the play in the shortstop-third base hole, showing off both range and his accurate arm.  But he’s also pretty good at getting to the ball hit up the middle.

    Potential for greatness

    There are some great young shortstops on the cusp of being as well regarded as the best defensive players in the game. Willy Adames and Adalberto Mondesi made great strides in their game for the Rays and Royals, respectively. But we want to single out Fernando Tatís Jr.

    Tatís looks like he’s going to be a special hitter based on his injury-shortened debut year, in which he hit .317 with 22 home runs in 334 at-bats. Defensively, he’s got a little ways to go. But the upside is promising. Tatís ranked better than Báez and Ahmed in the component of Runs Saved related to getting to balls. But he ranked last among all infielders in the throwing component of the stat.

    If Tatis can get that straightened out, he’ll be something special on the defensive side too.

  • It will be nice to see home run robberies again!

    By MARK SIMON

    We’ll admit it: It’s tough to look forward in baseball with so much uncertainty around the start of the 2020 season.

    But we’re here to try. Since defense is our specialty, we’ll devote some articles to looking at the things we’re most looking forward to related to that part of the game whether it’s in 2020 or further down the road.

    Let’s start with something that everyone likes watching (except hitters) — home run robberies.

    Theft in bulk

    There have been an average of 65 home run robberies a season since 2017, which would convert to 24 in a 60-game season. Lorenzo Cain (8) and Josh Reddick (7) have the most in that span with (by this writer’s opinion) Cain’s having a higher degree of difficulty than Reddick’s.

    Those two aren’t likely to come close to the five they snagged in 2019 (though Adam Engel did have three in a one-week span the year before). But we’d be happy to see something like this from Cain even once.

    Kevin Kiermaier is soooo good

    So long as he’s on the field and not hurt, Kevin Kiermaier is a phenomenal center fielder. Over the last five seasons, the Runs Saved leaderboard in center field reads Kiermaier 111, Cain 69. Kiermaier does everything well. He has great closing speed, which allows him to make lots of improbable plays. Watch this catch and then check out his description of it on our podcast.

    “It was the hardest play of my career, degree of difficulty, by far. That was one play where I truly surprised myself catching that ball. I had a long way to run and had to go into a full-out leap, somewhat horizontal which I don’t like doing because you’re going to hit the wall with pretty good momentum. I already knew I ran far enough to make this catch and I was fortunate enough to come down with it. I rocked my head on that wall … If I had to do it again, I would. I dream of making those type of plays. I’m just always trying to give people reason to give me the defensive reputation that I have.”

    The HR robbery is only the beginning

    Athletics outfielder Ramon Laureano has an all-world arm that wowed us multiple times last season. We ranked it the best in the game in an article in The Athletic. Laureano ranked second to Victor Robles in Outfield Arm Runs Saved last season, though if you put their throws side-by-side, we’re pretty sure Laureano’s arm strength would rate more impressive.

    Even Laureano’s bad throws make for great viewing. Especially when you combine them with a highly impressive home run-robbery!

  • New MLB Podcast: Baseball Writers Roundtable

    LISTEN HERE

    On this episode of the Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast, Mark Simon is joined by Thomas Harding, Rockies beat writer for MLB.com, Alex Speier, who covers the Red Sox and MLB for the Boston Globe and Alex Coffey, who covers the Athletics for The Athletic.

    Almost every other episode of this podcast deals with statistical subjects or looks at the “how-to” of defensive play. There will hopefully be a time and place for that in the future. This episode is a little different.

    This episode focuses on 2 subjects:

    1) How teams and players are dealing with Coronavirus-related issues.

    2) How players, teams and MLB are responding to social justice concerns

    Thank you as always for listening. Stay healthy and stay safe.

    *More information:*

    Read Thomas Harding’s coverage at MLB.com

    Red Alex Speier’s coverage at BostonGlobe.com

    Read Alex Coffey’s coverage at TheAthletic.com

  • New baseball podcast: KBO star Mel Rojas Jr.

    Listen here

    On this episode of the Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast, Mark Simon (@markasimonsays) is joined by KT Wiz outfielder Mel Rojas Jr. ( @melrojasjr) arguably the best hitter in the KBO and the league’s leader in hard-hit rate. If Mel’s name sounds familiar, it should – his father pitched 10 seasons in the majors including a strong run as the closer for the Expos. Mel talks about his family’s baseball history, which includes the Alou family, and explains why he’s a hitter and not a pitcher (1:11). He talks about what the season has been like and how improved plate coverage has led to more success (3:31). He also explains what it takes to hit or lay off a nasty forkball and how his family’s history may have come in handy regarding his knowledge of that pitch (7:03).

    Mel also discusses his defense and playing/living in Korea (10:40) and what it has been like to play without fans and how KBO fans are highly positive, even when their players are in slumps (16:30). He also explains why he chose to come to the KBO and why he chose to stay (17:38). He picks out some of the league’s other top players and references one who should be a future MLB prospect (20:00). Lastly, he offers advice for anyone considering playing in the KBO (22:23).