It was a two-start stretch in June of 1938 that has since lived in baseball infamy. A rookie for the Cincinnati Reds, Johnny Vander Meer, completed what many to this day still believe is an untouchable feat: back-to-back no hitters. An accomplishment that seems more fairy tale than reality, this old legend has been passed down through baseball generations. Until now. Fast forward 77 years to the same month and to nearly the same days. A new legend has appeared right before our eyes.

Max Scherzer, the prized and expensive right arm of the Washington Nationals, just threw back-to-back starts that can only be compared to Vander Meer. Such a comparison has Scherzer in disbelief: “ It just seems so improbable, to be able to do that… You’re really speechless to even be mentioned with that.”

Although Scherzer did not accomplish Vander Meer’s remarkable feat (Scherzer allowed a bloop single to Milwaukee Brewers’ Carlos Gomez), his performance might be even more impressive. Comparing Scherzer and Vander Meer’s stat lines, Scherzer’s statistics show a different level of domination and achievement:

Washington’s right-hander capped off this line with the second no-hitter in Nationals’ franchise history. Scherzer’s June 14th start in Milwaukee may not have received the same accolades, but it was one of the finest starting pitching performances in modern baseball history. Throwing a franchise record 16 strikeouts and allowing one hit, Scherzer accumulated a Game Score of 100—something that has been done only five previous times in baseball history.

June 20, 2015 was Scherzer’s next start, and the date when he joined Baseball’s No-Hitter Club. While Scherzer’s Game Score didn’t reach 100—it fell to a “mere” 97—it capped off one of the best two-start stretches in major league history. Scherzer was within one strike of a perfect game when his 2-2 pitch, an errant slider, hit the elbow guard of Pittsburgh’s Jose Tabata. Though Scherzer would complete his no-hitter the next at-bat, Tabata’s hit-by-pitch was the only blip to a perfect afternoon in the nation’s capital.

These two starts fully displayed Scherzer’s arsenal against opposing hitters. To date this season, opposing batters are hitting just .213 on Scherzer fastballs, .112 against his sliders, .174 on his changeups, and .154 against his curveballs. All of this accumulates to a major-league-leading .180 batting average for opposing hitters. The Nationals’ right-hander is leading numerous pitching categories, and is in the top-five in baseball strikeout rate, K-BB rate, ERA, FIP, complete games, shutouts, and innings pitched.

Max Scherzer pitches on raw emotion, and has become know for the intensity he brings to the mound. But what goes unnoticed is his intelligence and sophisticated approach to pitching. Part of what makes Scherzer unique is his understanding and appreciation of the statistics and analytics being used in baseball today. In a 2014 Sports Illustrated article, Scherzer was quoted as saying, “the advanced stats are great to look at for my long-term goals and what I’m trying to accomplish. It shows me there is an inherent failure in pitching. The luck involved, the factors you can’t control. You just have to let go of those and focus on the next batter, the next game. You can’t do anything about bloop hits. I didn’t understand that before, and now I do.”

Well, it was a bloop hit that prevented Max Scherzer from joining Johnny Vander Meer in back-to-back no-hit folk tales. But one thing is for certain: Max Scherzer’s arsenal in 2015 is legendary, and good luck to those trying to hit against him.

Now that the 2014 major league season is down to the final four, we can reflect on how these four teams made it to the League Championship Series and how they stack up for a World Series run.  To do so, I’ll look at the hitting, pitching, and defense of the remaining teams.

One of the best ways to measure a player’s offensive contributions is with Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+). Weighted Runs Created Plus attempts to quantify a player’s total offensive value and measure it in runs relative to the league average, controlling for park effects. League average for position players is 100. Every point above 100 is a percentage point above league average, so a 110 wRC+ means a player created 10 percent more runs than a league average hitter would have in the same number of plate appearances. I’ll use that 110 wRC+ threshold, based on the numbers on FanGraphs, to identify above average offensive players.

Last year’s World Series matchup featured two of the teams that make a strong case for the importance of offensive excellence. The World Champion Boston Red Sox had seven players with a wRC+ of 110 or better, tied for the most in baseball, and two more with a 109 wRC+. Their World Series opponent, the St. Louis Cardinals, had six players that were at least 10 percent better than average, tied for third best in baseball.

This season, the American League Championship Series features the Baltimore Orioles and the Kansas City Royals. Manny Machado’s knee injury in August and Chris Davis’ 25-game suspension left the Orioles with only four above average offensive regulars heading into the postseason. While Davis’ suspension garnered plenty of media coverage, his offensive production had been below average, 94 wRC+, this season.

Making up for the loss of Machado and Davis’ poor season was center fielder Adam Jones, who hit 29 home runs and slugged .469. Jones was among the best hitting center fielders, ranking second and seventh at the position in home runs and slugging percentage, respectively, among qualifiers. In addition, Nelson Cruz was one of the most underrated offseason free agent signings. Dan Duquette signed Cruz to a one-year deal for $8 million in February, securing a middle-of-the-order power bat to protect Adam Jones. Cruz handily outperformed his one-year deal by hitting an MLB-best 40 home runs in 2014.

While the Orioles have four above average offensive players, they have an abundance of above average defensive players. The Orioles lead the American League by a wide margin with 56 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). The Athletics finished second with 42 DRS. Baltimore has four players that rank in the top 10 at their respective positions, including the important up-the-middle positions with catcher Caleb Joseph, shortstop J.J. Hardy, and second baseman Jonathan Schoop.

Perhaps the most remarkable story of the season has been that of Steve Pearce. The 31-year old journeyman has taken advantage of the his opportunity this season by slugging .556 and hitting 21 home runs on his way to a 161 wRC+. Pearce also shined defensively where he ranked in the top 10 in Runs Saved at two different positions: first base and left field. This season, Pearce should be one of the most dangerous and versatile players in the postseason.

Beyond their individual players, the Orioles also have a nice advantage in the form of defense shifts. Baltimore led all teams in baseball with 599 shifts on balls in play a year ago and increased that total this season to 705 shifts, fourth most in baseball. That dedication to the shift resulted in seven Shift Runs Saved.

One the major reasons the Orioles advanced past the Detroit Tigers in the ALDS was the effectiveness of their bullpen. Where the Tigers bullpen failed to hold leads in the series sweep, the Orioles bullpen was superb. Manager Buck Showalter used his bullpen for 12 innings over the three games, and his relievers surrendered just three runs in that span. Showalter has a plethora of options to deploy against righties, including hard-throwing Tommy Hunter and sidewinder Darren O’Day. But his star reliever is their left-handed trade deadline acquisition Andrew Miller.

Miller pitched 3.1 innings of no-hit baseball against the Tigers, striking out three batters against only one walk. Showalter utilized Miller’s versatility to pitch multiple innings in Games 1 and 3. Miller came on in the sixth inning in Game 1 to hold a one-run lead before the Orioles offense torched the Tigers bullpen for eight runs in the eighth inning. In Game 3, Miller inherited a runner on first, but he still held the Tigers scoreless, bridging the game to Orioles closer Zach Britton. Britton saved the final two games of the series, sending the Orioles to the ALCS for the first time since 1997.

The Kansas City Royals’ return to the playoffs was built upon power arms in the bullpen, speed, and defense. The Royals collective athleticism and speed buoyed an often lifeless offense. They led MLB in stolen bases this season, with Jarrod Dyson and Alcides Escobar each stealing 30-plus bases this year. Speed has continued to play a major role in the Royals’ postseason success thus far as the Royals stole seven bases against the Athletics in the Wild Card play-in game. They stole another five bases in their sweep of the Angels in the ALDS.

The Royals bullpen features three of the best power arms in baseball. Setup men Kelvin Herrera and Wade Davis and closer Greg Holland each have an average fastball velocity over 95 mph, with Herrera and Davis touching 100 mph at various times this season. Davis was nearly untouchable this season, striking out almost 40 percent of the batters he faced while averaging only one earned run per nine innings. Holland and Herrera kept pace with Davis, with Holland fanning 38 percent of hitters and Herrera punching out 21 percent. Both maintained sub-2.00 ERAs, as well. In their four playoff games so far, the three flamethrowers and TCU rookie sensation Brandon Finnegan have been outstanding. They have combined to throw 15 innings, allowing just three earned runs and striking out 18 batters.

While their offense had its ebbs and flows this season, the Royals’ defense remained a constant strength all year. Kansas City saved 40 runs defensively this season, third most in the AL. Their outfielders were particularly outstanding. Left fielder Alex Gordon led all AL players with 27 DRS this season. Nearly as impressive were Lorenzo Cain and Jarrod Dyson who saved 24 and 14 runs, respectively. That defensive success has continued into the postseason where Cain and Dyson have made spectacular catches and outfield assists to stymie any potential rally put forth by the A’s and Angels.

During the regular season, the Royals had only three above average regulars on offense. So far this postseason, their offense has improved dramatically. First baseman Eric Hosmer and third baseman Mike Moustakas were well-below average offensive players in the regular season. Hosmer hit a paltry 9 home runs and Moustakas hit 15. But both players have played like stars in their playoff games, hitting a pair of home runs, each, including two game-winning home runs, one by Moustakas in Game 1 and the other by Hosmer in Game 2 of the ALDS.

The National League Championship Series pits the San Francisco Giants against the St. Louis Cardinals, two of the most successful NL franchises over the last decade. The Giants are quite familiar with the spotlight and hope to continue their odd trend of winning a World Series in even years just as they did in 2010 and 2012.

Five Giants were at least 10 percent better than league average offensively this season. Team leader and perennial MVP candidate Buster Posey has the rare ability to both get on base at a high rate and hit for power. He ranked near the top in both on-base percentage and slugging percentage among catchers in 2014. Posey is surrounded by outfielder Hunter Pence, a stealth MVP candidate, and Pablo Sandoval, an above average offensive third baseman. In his career, Sandoval has really shined in the postseason. He has a solid .294/.346/.465 in the regular season, but in the playoffs, Sandoval has been a superstar, hitting .311/.351/.547 with six home runs in 27 career playoff games.

The Giants’ staff ace, Madison Bumgarner, is perhaps the most underrated pitcher in baseball. Still just 25-years old, Bumgarner has already won two World Series and finished in the top 12 in Cy Young voting twice. This season, with Matt Cain lost to injury for much of the season, Bumgarner established himself as the clear ace of the staff. It was his fourth consecutive season with more than 200 innings, and Bumgarner was also among the NL leaders in strikeout rate, walk rate, and ERA. He even excels in the batter’s box. In Bumgarner’s limited 78 plate appearances this season, he hit four home runs and posted a 115 wRC+, the best among pitchers with at least 50 plate appearances.

Even with Bumgarner at the top of the rotation, the strength of the Giants pitching staff is its bullpen. Manager Bruce Bochy can use his bullpen to counter any matchups that Cardinals manager Mike Matheny might present during the NLCS. Bochy has a lefty specialist in Javy Lopez who neutralizes left-handed hitters. Lefties are hitting just .190/.248/.290 against Lopez this season. Right-handed reliever Sergio Romo has regained the feel for his devastating slider, which he featured with tremendous success as the Giants closer in 2012. Bochy now has a flame-throwing righty in Hunter Strickland to counter difficult right-handed hitters with his 98 mph fastball. Santiago Casilla closes down games. He has a mid-90s fastball and two breaking pitches, a curve and a slider, which successfully held hitters to a .175 batting average against this season.

Last year’s NL Champion, the St. Louis Cardinals, aim for a return trip to the World Series. The Central Division champs had five above average offensive players this season, but they had to do it without catcher Yadier Molina for a good portion of the season. Between 2011 and 2013, Molina posted three consecutive seasons with a wRC+ above 125, but this season, he was barely above league average. Molina’s torn thumb ligament on his right hand, which put him on the disabled list from July 9^th through August 29^th, may explain his subpar offensive season.

With Molina sidelined, the Cardinals had several players who stepped up both offensively and defensively. Shortstop Jhonny Peralta lived up to the four-year $53 million free agent contract he signed in the winter. He has provided both power and defense, with 21 home runs and 17 Runs Saved, which had him near the top in each category among shortstops.

The Cardinals would not have advanced past the Dodgers in the NLCS without the efforts of third baseman Matt Carpenter. The TCU product was taken by the Cardinals in the 13th round of the 2009 draft and has steadily risen to become one of the best players in baseball. In fact, since the beginning of the 2013 season, Carpenter is 4th in the NL in FanGraphs’ Wins Above Replacement with 10.7 WAR, trailing only center fielders Andrew McCutchen and Carlos Gomez and first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. During that span, Carpenter has been over 30 percent better than league average offensively, ranking in the top 10 among all NL position players in batting average and on-base percentage. Against the Dodgers in the NLDS, Carpenter hit .375/.412/1.125 with three home runs and a decisive three-run double against Clayton Kershaw in Game 1, cementing the Cardinals rally in the opening game of the series.

The Cardinals’ playoff rotation is built around staff ace Adam Wainwright, who finished second in the Cy Young voting last year and has once again built a strong case for the award in 2014. Among NL starters, Wainwright was second in innings and third in ERA and Fielding  Independent Pitching (FIP). Lance Lynn, the Cardinals Game 2 starter, has pitched over 200 innings in back-to-back seasons and is unusual in his approach. Lynn throws 79 percent fastballs, which is the second highest fastball percentage in MLB.

The Cardinals acquired veteran pitcher John Lackey at the trade deadline from the Boston Red Sox. Lackey has raised his game in the postseason in his career. His playoff ERA is under 3.00 in 17 starts, compared to an ERA over 4.00 in the regular season. He also has 86 strikeouts against just 36 walks in his postseason career. Lackey immediately paid dividends for the Cardinals in his Game 3 start against the Dodgers in the NLDS. In that start, he pitched seven innings and gave up just one-run on five hits while striking out eight batters and walking just one.

The two League Championship Series possess plenty of interesting matchups. The AL pits the Orioles’ power versus the Royals’ speed and the Royals’ lefty-laden lineup against Buck Showalter’s ability to counter with his relief corps. Both teams excel on defense, but Caleb Joseph should be able to slow the Royals’ running game down, and Nelson Cruz, Steve Pierce and the Orioles offense should continue to mash home runs, perhaps even a few the hard-throwing Royals bullpen.

The NLCS is a complete toss-up, seemingly destined to go the distance and be decided in seven games. Although the Giants have the better bullpen, which manager Bruce Bochy deploys as well as any manager in the game, the Cardinals’ lineup is deeper with power from both sides of the plate, and they also have the stronger rotation.

I was playing in a collegiate summer league at the time when I had a teammate that was in a slump.  He said he was going to swing at the first pitch of his next at-bat no matter what.  Shortly after proclaiming his odd strategy, he went to the plate, swung at the first pitch, and got a hit.  Later on he confirmed that this was not a one-time thing.  This was an approach he had used many times.  I have heard other players say this or even thought it myself, only to step in the batter’s box and take the first pitch for a strike.  I felt like this could not be a successful strategy in the long run.  That teammate hit much better than I did that summer.

The toughest thing in all of sports is to hit a round ball squarely with a round bat.  Although there are a host of reasons it would be tough to hit major league pitching, deciding whether to swing might be the toughest part.  Hitters have a split second to decide what kind of pitch is being thrown, where it will end up, and whether to swing at the pitch or not.  My teammate that summer didn’t have to make that decision mid-pitch many times since he had already determined he was going to swing.

After watching Josh Hamilton for years now, I am convinced he does this in many of his at-bats.

It is no secret Josh Hamilton likes to swing at the first pitch, or that he can have lousy plate discipline. Let’s take a look at how he compares to the rest of the league when it comes to the first pitch of an at-bat.

We compiled the first pitches from Josh Hamilton’s plate appearances spanning the past two and a half seasons (2012, 2013, and through July 31 of 2014).  Below is a table showing how he has fared (he did not hit any triples).

Compared to his overall batting average of .270 and slugging percentage of .491 over the same time period, he mashes the first pitch.  He also does well on the first pitch compared to the league averages (AVG .335, SLG .539) on the first pitch over same time frame.

However, Hamilton swings at the first pitch…a lot.  The totals over the past two and a half seasons can be seen below compared to the rest of the MLB.

As you can see, Hamilton swings at the first pitch much more frequently than his peers.  Also when he swings, he makes contact less frequently.  That trend is not simply the result of Hamilton swinging at more pitches out of the strike zone.  His contact rate is lower than the league average whether or not the pitch found the zone.

Hamilton swings almost twice as often on first pitches outside of the strike zone compared to the rest of the league.  Although this shows he is rather undisciplined on the first pitch, it isn’t enough to prove my theory correct.  However, the league has definitely taken notice of Hamilton’s first pitch tendencies.  MLB players see 47.8 percent of first pitches in the zone compared to Hamilton who sees just 38.3 percent of first pitches in the zone.

Now let’s break it up even further by looking at different pitch types.

It should be noted that there are other pitch types that aren’t included in this table due to a lack of sample size.  For example knuckleballs, splitters, and screwballs aren’t thrown very often (especially first pitch) so it’s hard to draw conclusions.

It can be observed that Hamilton’s swing rate is higher than the MLB rates for every pitch type in the table.  However, Hamilton’s contact rate on fastballs out of the zone is right on league average (78.3 percent compared to 78.7 percent).  Hamilton seems to see fastballs better than the other pitches.  He swings at first pitch fastballs out of the zone a smaller percentage of the time than he does at other pitches.

Hamilton also sees a smaller percentage of first pitch fastballs compared to the rest of MLB.  The league sees 63.6 percent first pitch fastballs while Hamilton sees them at a 44.4 percent clip.  Why you may ask?  Because he lives for first pitch fastballs.

I knew it was going to be pretty much impossible to prove Josh Hamilton decides to swing at the first pitch before he steps in the batter’s box.  After all, I only get that inclination during some of his at-bats and he might decide before the pitch.  He would never get away with that strategy if he did it all the time in the big leagues since the league has already made adjustments to him.  What we can conclude is that Josh Hamilton is a free-swinger on the first pitch over the past two and a half seasons.  He has been successful swinging at the first pitch, especially when it’s a fastball, and even more so when it’s in the zone.

It seems that nothing will stop Josh Hamilton at swinging at the first pitch.  Well, except a knuckleball that is.  He has not swung in three plate appearances.

It was Monday, April 21^st, 2014.  Michael Choice of the Texas Rangers started running when the pitcher lifted his leg.  However, the catcher stood out of his crouch at about the same time and slid away from the right-handed-hitting Elvis Andrus on a called pitch out.  As the ball crossed the plate, Andrus jumped and lunged simultaneously in his best attempt to make contact but his swing looked more like a bad landing on a less-than-perfect triple axel.  Andrus had one objective with that swing: to protect the runner.

For those unfamiliar, protecting the runner is the ideology that swinging through a pitch when a runner is stealing makes it harder for the catcher to throw the base stealer out.  The swing is thought to be a distraction and makes it so the catcher can’t cheat upwards without getting hit.  Although this is a largely agreed upon fact among those involved in baseball, I wanted to see if it was beneficial or not.

Using the data collected here at Baseball Info Solutions, I compiled all stolen base attempts of second base from the 2013 season where a catcher pop time was recorded (the time it takes from when the pitch is caught to when the ball gets to the fielder covering second base).  This eliminates stolen base attempts where the catcher didn’t have a chance to throw the runner out.  It also removes the instances where the catcher made an extremely poor throw.

The table below shows the aggregate totals from the 2013 season.

It is easy to see that runners were caught stealing less frequently when the batter didn’t swing compared to when he swung.  If swinging makes it more difficult for a catcher to throw a runner out, why were catchers more successful in these situations?  One possibility is that the pitches that batters choose not to swing at are so far out of the strike zone that it is tougher for the catcher to get off a good throw.  However, this would mean an unlikely percentage of pitches on stolen base attempts are out of the strike zone.  It is likely that there is a different reason behind these statistics.

While these results were somewhat surprising, this is not comparing apples to apples here (more like Miggy to Ellsbury).  Out of the 2048 stolen base attempts where we had a valid catcher pop time, there were 1765 attempts where we also had a stolen base time.

Runners were caught stealing way more often when the batter swung because the hitter knew they needed to protect the runner for a reason: he was slow.  Many times these slower runners (on average 0.08 seconds slower) were likely put in motion due to a hit and run where a batter was forced to swing or in a 3-2 count where the manager didn’t think the batter would strike out.  However, when the batter swung and missed the slower runner was usually left out to dry.

So does swinging actually help protect the runner?  The easiest way to judge this was to look at catcher pop times.

This means the average catcher pop time is 0.04 seconds longer when the batter swings compared to when the batter takes.  In order to put this amount of time in perspective, Eugene Coleman of the University of Houston found that the average major league ballplayer ran 24 feet per second.  Using this number (it doesn’t take into account sliding but it’s a good baseline), having 0.04 more seconds means the average major leaguer can cover 11.52 more inches of ground.  That difference in pop time means the potential base stealer can almost travel an extra foot!  This is significant because many plays (and stolen bases) are decided within a foot of the base.

This led to the conclusion that swinging does help protect the runner.  On average it takes the catcher more time to get the ball to second base when the batter swings compared to when he doesn’t.  However, it should be observed that many times the batter took the pitch when a runner was stealing.  There are a variety of possible reasons for this revolving around the idea that there is a certain amount of risk a player takes by swinging.  One reason they would take is that they don’t want to risk messing up a potential stolen base and/or good jump by fouling the pitch off.  Another reason they might take is that they don’t want to swing at a ball and give the pitcher a free strike.  After all, the runners that steal are expected to have the speed to be successful.

So should the batter swing when the runner is moving?  That is not for me to decide, but you might want to ask Michael Choice.  After all, he was safe.

The usage of shifts in MLB has exploded this season.  Teams are on pace to combine for more than 13,000 shifts on balls in play this year, up from just over 8,000 a year ago.  Front offices and field staffs are shifting their defensive infield alignments as a result of sophisticated batter ball-in-play tendencies to identify the areas on the field batters are more likely to hit grounders and short liners (the batted ball types that are most affected by the shift).

Sluggers David Ortiz, Chris Davis, Brian McCann, and Prince Fielder are four of the seven most shifted hitters since 2011. It comes as no surprise that teams are shifting these hitters given their public perceptions as power-hitting lefties. But what is interesting is the rate – determined by dividing shifted plate appearances by plate appearances with clear video of the defensive alignment of infielders – at which these hitters are being shifted against this season and the effectiveness of those shifts against them.

Perhaps no player in today’s game is more associated with shifting than Red Sox designated hitter, David Ortiz. Only Ortiz has ranked in the top five in most shifted plate appearances during the last three seasons, including through April 29 of this season. In 2012 and 2013, teams shifted Ortiz 82 percent and 88 percent, respectively. This season, Ortiz has been shifted on 97 percent of his plate appearances.  That leads MLB.

Last season facing the shift, Ortiz batted .250 on his grounders and short liners. While it is still April this season and the sample size is small, Ortiz is struggling this season hitting only .138 on those types of balls in play against the shift. Teams have virtually eliminated the opportunity for Ortiz to face a normal infield defense. Ortiz’s battle against the shift will likely continue as the season progresses, and the Red Sox have yet to face the Tampa Bay Rays, the team who shifted him the most last season.

The breakout star of the 2013 season was Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles. Davis vaulted himself from fringe player to major league superstar, and teams took notice increasing his shift percentage from 25 percent in 2012 to 78 percent in 2013. Davis hit .368 on grounders and short liners against the shift when he faced it less often in 2012, but he hit only .191 on grounders and short liners against the shift when his shifted rate increased in 2013. His shift rate is up, again, so far this season at 88 percent, and it continues to work for teams.  Davis is batting .200 on these types of batted balls versus the shift in 2014, so expect that trend to continue.

New York Yankees’ catcher Brian McCann is another example of a player who’s seen his shift rate increase over the last three seasons. As a member of the Atlanta Braves, McCann’s shift rate went from 38 percent in 2012, when he batted .189 on grounders and short liners facing the shift, to 64 percent in 2013. His .233 average on grounders and short liners against the shift was better in 2013, but it was still 30 points lower than his batting average on grounders and short line drives without a shift. This season, McCann’s first in pinstripes, his shift rate has jumped to 90 percent. That increase in the shift usage seems to be having a significant effect on McCann as he’s batting .130 on grounders and short liners against the shift. McCann should get comfortable facing the shift in the AL East as the Orioles and Rays, division opponents, were the top two teams in shifting last season, respectively.

Newly acquired Texas Rangers’ first baseman Prince Fielder may be the most interesting case.  Fielder is not as obvious a shift candidate as Ortiz, Davis, and McCann because he pulls fewer of his grounders and short liners.  In fact, over his last 120 such balls in play, Fielder has only pulled 74 percent them, which falls below the 80 percent threshold Baseball Info Solutions uses to identify left-handed shift candidates.  That said, Fielder has fared very poorly against the shift.

In 2012, Fielder had an excellent overall season with a .313/.412/.528 slash line, and he was among the top five in shifted plate appearances. However he was only shifted 37 percent of his plate appearances, despite hitting .256 on his grounders and short liners against the shift. Meanwhile, Fielder’s shift rate fell to 28 percent the following year even though his .226 average on grounders and short liners continued to trail his average on those balls in play with no shift.

Unfortunately for Prince Fielder and the Rangers, other teams have caught on, and that seems to be one of the reasons he has struggled so far this season. Fielder is back in the top five of the number of shifts faced this year, and teams are also shifting him with greater frequency. This season, 77 percent of his plate appearances have been shifted, and Fielder has continued to struggle, hitting just .143 on grounders and short liners against the shift. If Fielder is to put his early season troubles behind him and turn his season around, he’ll likely have to do it against an increased shift rate.