Category: Baseball

  • Pretty good (defense) for an old man

    By MARK SIMON

    One of the interesting articles in The Fielding Bible – Volume Vis about the defensive aging curve and the idea that a young player usually reaches his defensive peak very early in his career.

    But even with that said, there are still players who perform at high levels when they’re considered to be old. I wanted to see who those were within the 17-season history of Defensive Runs Saved.

    Let’s see what we’ve got.

    Note: All references to age refer to the player’s age on June 30 of that season.

    The player with the most Defensive Runs Saved in a season at age 40 or older is …

    Omar Vizquel was a defensive wizard who aged well. He had 16 Runs Saved with the Giants as a 40-year-old in 2007. There aren’t many 40-year-olds in the majors these days that could rival Vizquel. Heck, there aren’t that many 40-year-olds in the majors any more. No one has had that many Runs Saved at age 39 or 38 either.

    Ichiro Suzuki came the closest to matching Vizquel. Even at the end of his career, Ichiro could still make a strong impact in the outfield. He had 14 Runs Saved with the Yankees in 2013.

    The player with the most Defensive Runs Saved in a season at age 37 or older is …

    One of the most impressive things about Adrián Beltré’s Hall-of-Fame caliber career was how his numbers went against the aging curve. Beltré’s was someone who got better as a hitter he entered his 30s. Beltre was an excellent defender throughout his career. He had 17 Runs Saved in 2016 with the Rangers at age 37. He also hit .300 with 32 home runs that season.

    The player with the most Defensive Runs Saved in a season at age 36 or older is …

    Someone whose name I didn’t expect to see here. Rey Sánchez had 18 Runs Saved in 91 games as a shortstop with the Rays at age 36 in 2004. That put him just ahead of Beltré and former Mets second baseman José Valentín, who had 17 Runs Saved for the division titlists in 2006.

    Age 36 is the last age at which there is a considerable sample of players who saved at least 10 runs in a season. Among the 36-year-olds to do that are Mark Grudzielanek (15 with the 2006 Royals), outfielders Marlon Byrd (12 with the 2014 Phillies) and Torii Hunter (12 with the 2012 Angels), and Hall-of-Famers Chipper Jones (10 with the 2008 Braves) and Larry Walker (10 with the 2003 Rockies).

    The player with the most Defensive Runs Saved in a season at age 35 or older is …

    Grudzielanek shows up here again, but not alone. He had 23 Runs Saved as a second baseman for the 2005 Cardinals, the same number that Craig Counsell had for the 2006 Diamondbacks.

    More recently, former Diamondbacks catcher Jeff Mathis has 20 Runs Saved as a 35-year-old in 2018. He deserves considerable credit not only for doing this as a catcher, but for doing it in only 63 games behind the plate.

    The player with the most Defensive Runs Saved in a season at age 34 or older is …

    This is the last one we’ll do because Counsell puts everyone to shame with his 2005 season in which he saved 30 runs for the Diamondbacks.

    What’s amazing about Counsell’s age 34-35 run was that he did it at two positions. His 30 Runs Saved in this year remains the standard-setter for second basemen (matched by Chase Utley of the Phillies in 2008). The next season, he moved to shortstop and recorded 20 of his 23 Runs Saved in 88 games there.

    This reminded me of a quote I’ve shared a few times on this blog from former Padres manager Andy Green, who said he learned how to play defense by watching Counsell. Keep in mind that prior to 2013, Defensive Runs Saved combines Range & Positioning for infielders (post-2013 positioning is not factored into the Runs Saved total). Counsell was someone who knew where to go.

    “I saw him instinctively moving around the diamond,” Green said a few years ago. “Every time a ball was hit, he was right where the ball was hit.

    Counsell was one of those players who found ways to adjust. It’s not easy, but it’s possible and it’s something to watch as your favorite defenders get older.

     

     

  • To The Victor Belongs The Great Defense

    By Mark Simon

    One of the game’s top defensive stars, Washington Nationals center fielder Victor Robles, turns 23 today.

    Robles led all center fielders with 23 Defensive Runs Saved last season, edging out Lorenzo Cain of the Brewers, though Cain won the Fielding Bible Award for defensive excellence at the position.

    If I was going to rate the best defensive center fielders in baseball, I think I’d slot Robles at No. 4. Cain and Kevin Kiermaier of the Rays would be interchangeable at 1-2 depending on if you prefer Cain’s statistical advantage the last two seasons or Kiermaier’s longstanding outstanding reputation.

    Byron Buxton of the Twins has a Fielding Bible Award and a Platinum Glove to his credit, so he’s got the No. 3 spot. Buxton’s hold on this is tenuous given that injury issues and poor performance have kept him from regularly playing for a full season.

    One difference between Robles and the other three is how much value Robles’ extracted from his arm last season. His 12 unaided assists (those without a cutoff man) and 9 Outfield Arm Runs Saved led the majors last season.

    By contrast, Buxton saved 3 runs with his arm, Kiermaier saved 2, and Cain cost his team 3. It will be interesting to see if teams challenge Robles’ arm now that it is more of a known commodity. Kiermaier lamented on our recent podcast interview with him that he doesn’t get challenged as much as he used to because his arm has a good reputation. Robles may merit the same badge of honor.

    Robles also differs from Cain, Kiermaier, and Buxton in that a good amount of his value in catching fly balls and line drives came on balls hit to the shallowest part of the outfield rather than on the would-be doubles and triples hit near or on the warning track.

    Here’s how many plays made that each was above or below average as a center fielder on balls hit to the shallow, medium and deep parts of the outfield (Robles played a little right field too, but that isn’t factored in).

    Shallow Medium Deep
    Victor Robles +10 +3 +1
    Lorenzo Cain +4 +2 +12
    Kevin Kiermaier -4 +6 +7
    Byron Buxton -1 0 +9

    It probably wouldn’t surprise you to know that Robles played the shallowest of the four in their respective home ballparks, starting 312 feet from home plate per Statcast. Compare that to Kiermaier, who on average starts 322 feet from home plate in Tropicana Field, whose dimensions to center are nearly identical to Nationals Park. This puts Kiermaier in a better position to catch deep balls, but Robles likely has a better chance at the shallower ones.

    That’s not to say that Robles can’t go back and catch a ball when needed.

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    Though Robles and Kiermaier differ in their defensive positioning, Robles does share the commonality with Kiermaier of having to work on his hitting. Robles had an OPS+ of 88 last year and that was with 25 hit by pitches, which increased his risk of injury.

    Robles’ glove will keep him entrenched in the Nationals lineup. Though he may not currently be the best defensive center fielder in the game, he’s close, and he’s someone to watch and enjoy if and when the 2020 season resumes.

     

     

  • Brooks Robinson’s greatness rings true forever

    By MARK SIMON

    The baseball people in our Research & Development department often joke of how Athletics third baseman Matt Chapman is our favorite son because of the way he plays and the outstanding defensive numbers that he puts up.

    Had our group existed in the 1950s, 60s and 70s, our poster child would likely have been Hall-of-Fame third baseman Brooks Robinson of the Baltimore Orioles, who turns 83 today. Robinson and Cardinals shortstop Ozzie Smith are arguably the top two defensive infielders in major league history.

    Robinson debuted at age 18 in 1955 and became an everyday player in 1958, with no way of knowing he’d play 23 seasons with Baltimore. His defensive play was immediately noticeable. In an article in the Baltimore Evening Sun in November 1957, it was noted that his nickname in the Texas League was “The Octopus” because of his ability to reach any ball. This would later morph into “The Human Vacuum Cleaner.”

    One of his minor league managers, Joe Schultz, said

    “Robinson makes at least one big-league play in every game, and he makes some plays that a lot of major-league third basemen never make in their lifetime. He’d be a big help to a ball club even if he hit .220.”

    Ah yes, Robinson’s hitting is a concern in any article you read from the early part of his career. It took a couple of years for Robinson’s bat to develop. In 1960, the 23-year-old Robinson hit .294 with 14 home runs. Combine that with defense that lived up to Schultz’s billing and you had a player who finished a close third in the MVP voting behind two far more prodigious hitters, Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle of the Yankees.

    One Maryland sportswriter said that had the Orioles won the pennant, Robinson would have won the MVP. Robinson did win the AL MVP in 1964 and placed in the top three in 1965 and 1966.

    “He could be one of the best third basemen who ever lived,” said Tigers manager Jimmy Dykes in September of 1960.

    1960 also marked the first of 16 straight years in which Robinson won a Gold Glove Award. The only player to win more Gold Gloves is a pitcher, Greg Maddux, with 18. Robinson’s 16 are the most by a third baseman, six more than Mike Schmidt, who ranks second with 10.

    The last Gold Glove came in 1975 and during that season, the famous Los Angeles Times sportswriter Jim Murray wrote

    “Robinson shops around for gloves with hits in them the way sluggers do for bats. Whenever a teammate makes a spectacular catch, Brooks hounds him with offers to trade, buy, borrow, or steal. In Baltimore, they say Brooks doesn’t go after balls. His glove does. He always keeps a backup glove, which he breaks in on infield practice.”

    Orioles manager Earl Weaver told Murray:

    “Brooks is the only guy I know who has a farm system for gloves. He’s got gloves that are a year away. He retires the old ones when they can’t go to their left for balls hit in the hole any more.”

    Peak Robinson was on display in the 1970 World Series against the Reds with plays like this one against Lee May (a future teammate) in Game 1.

    “He should wear a Superman cloak,” said longtime baseball writer Charles (Chub) Feeney.

    Our defensive metrics date back to 2003, but the stats that use historical data to evaluate Robinson reward him for his play. Robinson led AL third basemen in Total Zone Runs eight times and ranked second in seven other seasons. He’s the career leader in this stat among third basemen by a considerable margin (it is calculated from 1953 forward).

    In terms of playing style, perhaps you saw the cover of The Fielding Bible Volume V and were wowed by Chapman’s ability to keep a low base when getting ready for a pitch to be delivered. Robinson didn’t play that way.

    Wrote Mike Klein of the Chicago Daily Herald in 1973:

    “It’s a cardinal rule of baseball that any successful infielder crouch low, keep his head down and glove close to the ground. “Play the ball; don’t let the ball play you.

    “But Robinson, and this attests to his great quickness (different from speed, which he lacks) plays higher than most brothers of the Hot Corner Fraternity. His crouch is less pronounced. Playing down at shell city means attack and charge the ball. Which he does to perfection.

    There’s even a worked-up set of Brooks Robinson footsteps for making sure he pivots off the left foot when fielding bunts. What makes his golden magnetic glovework so intriguing however is that Robinson going backwards and to either side will make a better play than most third basemen playing it by all the rules. It is distinctly Robinson.

    “Nobody else does it quite the same.”

    So on his 83rd birthday, we offer a tip of the cap to Brooks Robinson, a one of a kind defensive player who any generation of baseball fans can appreciate.

  • New baseball podcast: Ron Washington

    On this episode of the Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast, Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) is joined by Braves third base coach Ron Washington who has an incredible amount of wisdom to share from his home in New Orleans. Wash explains what defensive excellence means to him (2:19), his first defensive mentor in baseball, Chico Fernandez (2:57), how hard it is to be a good defensive player (4:02), how defense has evolved (5:17), and the best lesson he learned from failing as a player (6:20).

    Coach Washington also shares what it was like to play catcher and the difference between a pitch-framer and a pitch singer (7:19), and how he has evolved as a coach (8:55). He explains the role he’s had in working with excellent defenders like Eric Chavez and Ozzie Albies (10:22). Lastly, he says what he likes most about coaching defense and what advice he would give an aspiring coach (15:58).

    Thanks for listening. Stay safe and stay healthy!

  • New podcast: Kevin Kiermaier on defense, defense, defense!

    LISTEN HERE!
    On this edition of the Sports Info Solution Baseball Podcast, Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) is joined by Tampa Bay Rays Platinum-Glove winning center fielder Kevin Kiermaier (@KKiermaier39) for a comprehensive explanation of what goes into playing defense.

    Kiermaier explains what he is doing to keep busy with his wife and toddler son in Tampa and the commonalities between bow-fishing and trying to catch a fly ball – and there are parallels! (1:00) He also shares the memories of the first good defensive plays he made in Little League and in the majors (4:00), who his favorite defensive player was as a kid (6:06), and the details of the intense amount of preparation he does to play defense the way he does – he takes opponents’ batting practice seriously – and to avoid having any weaknesses (6:59).

    Kevin also explains how he defenses Aaron Judge and Ichiro Suzuki and how he adjusts his positioning based on instinct and observations (11:30), what the difference is between making a catch and missing the ball on a low line drive (16:51), and a guide to what goes into a home run robbery (19:24). Mark also details what goes into tracking a home run robbery and how much credit a fielder gets for one and Kevin notes that defensive stats are important to players like him being in the major leagues (21:58).

    He also describes his glove and explains the routine he goes through to keep his arm strong (27:35). He also notices that baserunners have stopped challenging him and appreciates the respect that comes with that (31:28). Lastly, he runs through the coaches who helped him out along the way. All hail Skeeter Barnes! (33:00)

    Thanks for listening. Stay safe and Stay healthy!

  • New podcast: Coronavirus and Baseball Training

    Listen Here!

    On this edition of the Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast, Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) is joined by Dr. Aaron Gray (@MizzouSportsDoc), a Youth & Adult Sports Medicine Physician at the University of Missouri, and SIS Injury Coordinator John Verros (@VerrosJohn).

    Dr. Gray gives his advice on sifting through the overwhelming amount of information (and misinformation) related to Coronavirus (1:54), what is known about training to play sports in a pandemic (3:31), and he also evaluates ongoing discussions related to fear of contracting the virus from breathing it in (4:26).

    John explains some of the things he’s looking at, like how successfully a pitcher like Justin Verlander can return from injury (5:24). He and Dr. Gray both provide examples of exercises that athletes can do to keep in shape (8:25), what injuries they are most concerned about (10:40), and what studies have piqued their interest (15:42). Lastly, Dr. Gray explains the scenario that MLB officials are likely most concerned about – what happens if the season begins and a player tests positive in midseason (21:42).

    Stay safe and well and thank you for listening

  • A Closer Look at Defensive Aging Curves

    A Closer Look at Defensive Aging Curves

    The following article was written in April 2019 and is an excerpt from The Fielding Bible – Volume V, on sale now at ACTA Sports.

    Executive Summary

    It is understood that as a player ages, his performance weakens, but just how does that happen on the defensive end? In looking at the history of Defensive Runs Saved, an aging curve was generated. It showed that a player’s defensive peak is his age 26 season, with a steady decline for the rest of his career, including a more substantial decline beyond his age 30 season.

    Introduction

    This adds another challenging element to signing free agents, because almost every player will hit free agency past his defensive peak.

    How is a player’s defense impacted as he ages?

    Some of the signings in the 2018-19 offseason merit that question. With 27-year-old Nolan Arenado, who signed an eight-year contract extension, it seems fair to consider whether he’s hit his defensive peak yet. He finished with 5 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) in 2018 after back-to-back seasons of saving 20 runs.

    With the two 26-year-olds, Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, it’s a question of how much their poor performance in DRS in 2018 may foreshadow some sort of decline for the long term. Machado struggled at shortstop in 2018 and will move back to third base with the Padres after inking an eight-year deal. Harper blamed tired legs and playing out of position in center field for a season in which his defense cost the Nationals 26 runs. He’s signed with the Phillies for the next 13 seasons.

    To get a better feel for how much aging impacts a player’s defensive performance, the history of the DRS stat was studied.

    Runs Saved by Age

    Methodology

    To start, a player’s total DRS values dating back to 2003 were aggregated by age to produce average values by age group. When looking at these values, you can see that a player’s defensive peak is around his age 26 season, with a steady decline for the rest of his career, including a more substantial decline beyond their age 30 season.

    The plot gives a general idea about a player’s expected career trajectory but is ultimately incomplete. Simple averages by age fail to account for survivorship bias in older players, selection bias of younger players who are good enough to make the majors at a young age, and more generally fails to account for how different players develop from year to year.

    A few different methods were used to account for this and provide a more complete analysis.

    To account for the volatility of defensive performance from year to year, a two-year rolling total, converted to DRS per 1,000 innings is used as opposed to single-season DRS totals. The sample included only players who had played in at least 1,800 fractional innings over the course of the two seasons.

    Additionally, since all positions are not created equal, a positional adjustment was used. The goal was to account for players who switched to easier positions as they aged. This also inherently gives extra value to players who excelled in more difficult positions such as center field. The positional adjustments used are shown below:

    Position Adjustment
    First Base 13
    Second Base 32
    Third Base 25
    Shortstop 36
    Left Field 19
    Center Field 29
    Right Field 20

    Finally, the DRS totals were evaluated using the Delta method. The sample included only players who played in consecutive two-year windows, and their change in DRS between those two windows. As an example, a player who has 4 DRS per 1,000 innings in his age 26 and 27 seasons, and 2 combined DRS per 1,000 between his age 27 and 28 seasons would be evaluated as having -2 DRS, despite both values being positive.

    Runs Saved by age part 2

    As an example, a typical player who peaked with 5 Runs Saved in their age 25 season could be expected to see that number decrease to 3 Runs Saved by their age 30 season, and to 0 by their age 34 season. There will be outliers in each direction, but the images presented show an overall representation.

     Conclusion

    When looking at the plot, the pattern in defense becomes clearer. The average player’s defensive performance begins a steady decline following their age 25 season and takes an even sharper decline following their age 30 season.

    With defensive performance declining that early, it is extremely rare that a free agent will still be trending upwards defensively. It’s another factor to be considered within the risk of signing players like Arenado, Harper, and Machado long term.

  • Which middle-infield defensive combo is best in the DRS era?

    By MARK SIMON

    After looking at where the Athletics’ corner info combo stacked up against others in the Defensive Runs Saved era (since 2003), it made sense to continue the theme and look at middle-infield combos to see which ones ranked best.

    In terms of having a current interest, a logical question would be whether the 2019 Cardinals combination of Paul DeJong and Kolten Wong is the top one, given how good they were last season.

    Let’s use Defensive Runs Saved to take a look. We’ll do it slightly differently from our look at corner infields in that we’ll look at specific players rather than overall team performance.

    2017 Angels – Andrelton Simmons and Danny Espinosa (49 Runs Saved)

    It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Angels end up here given that they have the player selected the top defender of the 21st century. The 2017 season was Andrelton Simmons’ best year. He saved 40 runs with his defense, the most that any player has had in a season since 2003, the first season that the stat tracks.

    All Simmons needed was a good second baseman for this combination to end up at the top and he had that, at least for a little while in Danny Espinosa, an infielder with a good defensive reputation who saved nine runs in 71 games playing second base there.

    2008 Phillies – Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley (48 Runs Saved)

    The Phillies won a World Series in 2008 with this revered pair manning the middle infield. Chase Utley’s 30 Runs Saved match the most that a player has had at the position in a season (Craig Counsell also saved 30 runs at second base in 2005). The most important run Utley saved that year didn’t count in his stats – it came on a play in Game 5 of the World Series.

    The 18 runs saved by Jimmy Rollins led shortstops that season, equaled his career high and turned out to be his peak (he’d never save more than six runs at shortstop after that). Regardless, he’s held in high regard. Arguing that this season’s work is one of the best middle-infield defensive combos of all-time isn’t that much of a stretch.

    2019 Cardinals – Paul DeJong and Kolten Wong (45 Runs Saved)

    It’s a case of close but not quite for the Cardinals top infielders last season. Nonetheless, Kolten Wong saved 19 runs and won his second straight Fielding Bible Award at second base. Paul DeJong’s 26 Runs Saved tied Javier Báez for the MLB lead at shortstop and brought to light that he deserved to be mentioned when discussing some of the game’s top defenders at the position.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pb0lIQQnJqU

    2007 Blue Jays – John McDonald and Aaron Hill (45 Runs Saved)

    This is probably one you wouldn’t have guessed (unless you’re from Toronto), but it’s worth noting because this is the only instance of a team having a shortstop and a second baseman who each had at least 20 Runs Saved in a season.

    Shortstop John McDonald had 23 in 102 games, the most he played at that position in his career. McDonald is now the Indians’ Field Coordinator after previously working as the organization’s Defensive Coordinator. Hill had back-to-back seasons of 26 and 22 Runs Saved in 2006 and 2007 but was never able to quite return to that level again. Nonetheless, he had a solid 13-year career in the big leagues, starring both in Toronto and Arizona.

    2007 Rockies – Troy Tulowitzki and Kaz Matsui (45 Runs Saved)

    Strong middle-infield defense played a role in the Rockies’ incredible late-season run that culminated with a trip to the World Series. This year was Troy Tulowitzki in peak defensive form (31 Runs Saved) and Kaz Matsui performing at a level he hadn’t reached before or since, with 14 Runs Saved.  Tulowitzki, who wore No. 2 as a tribute to Derek Jeter, excelled at fielding the ball in the shortstop-third base hole that year at a level that was tough to match. And let’s not forget he turned an unassisted triple play (albeit on a relatively easy play)!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glMPzclgKRQ

     

     

  • Are Matt Olson and Chapman the best corner duo in the “Runs Saved era?”

    By Mark Simon

    Talking with Matt Olson on the latest Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast got me thinking about great corner infield combos. And I figured there was a good chance that the A’s got more defensive value out of first and third base in 2019 (50 Defensive Runs Saved) than any team previously had from those two positions in the 17-year history of the stat.

    It turned out that a couple of teams had them beat.

    2003 Rangers (60 Runs Saved From 1B and 3B)

    What a luxury the Rangers had at first base in 2003. They had a rookie, Mark Teixeira, who went on to win five Gold Gloves and a three-time Gold Glove winner at DH in Rafael Palmeiro.

    Teixeira saved 19 runs in his debut season, living up to his status as one of the game’s top prospects with both the bat and the glove. Palmeiro gets knocked for winning a Gold Glove in a season in which he barely played (1999), but he was legit when he did take the field. He saved 11 runs in 55 games as Teixeira’s alternate. Add in a run saved each for Mike Lamb and Todd Greene and the Rangers got 32 Runs Saved from first base.

    On top of that, they got 28 more out of second-year man Hank Blalock at third base. Blalock didn’t win a Gold Glove that year, but he probably should have. Between the two-headed monster at first base and Blalock’s work at third, the Rangers got 60 Runs Saved. Olson and Chapman couldn’t quite beat that.

    2007 Cardinals (51 Runs Saved)

    I can’t knock this one. This is a season in which Albert Pujols played the best first base that anyone has played in the DRS era (I wrote about it for The Athletic). Pujols saved 31 runs by playing well off the bag, and he was still able to recover to get back to catch throws without issue. On the opposite side of the diamond, perennial defensive star Scott Rolen saved 12 runs in 112 games and five backups showed they were in sync with “The Cardinal Way,” combining to save nine more runs.

    In all, the Cardinals corner infielders combined for 51 Runs Saved, just edging out the A’s.

    So about Olson and Chapman …

    All right, so the A’s don’t come out on top here. Though Olson saved 18 runs, his backups cost the Athletics five runs. Combining their 13 with Chapman and company’s 37 gives the Athletics 50 runs, good for third best on this list. Oakland’s corner infielders also combined for 43 Runs Saved in 2018, which ranks tied for fourth with the 2005 Phillies (of Ryan Howard and Scott Rolen fame).

    However, if we just look at combos and take the backups out of the mix, Olson and Chapman combined for 52 Runs Saved last season. No other third-first combination beats them out. They’re the best of the DRS era.