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Category: Defenders To Watch

  • 2023 Defender To Watch: Julio Rodriguez

    2023 Defender To Watch: Julio Rodriguez

    Why is Julio Rodriguez a defender to watch in 2023?

    Rodriguez didn’t just win 2022 AL Rookie of the Year and help the Mariners to their first playoff appearance since 2001 through his hitting. Though he finished with only 3 Defensive Runs Saved, that was a huge upgrade from 2021, when Mariners center fielders ranked 28th with -16 Runs Saved.

    Rodriguez wowed fans by extending his range with 20 combined sliding, diving, and jumping catches, the sixth-highest total for an outfielder.

    Most Sliding, Diving, Jumping Catches – Outfielders in 2022

    Player Catches
    Ian Happ 34
    Alex Verdugo 24
    Victor Robles 23
    David Peralta 22
    Daulton Varsho 21
    Julio Rodriguez 20

    His best catch came on the national stage in the postseason against the Astros.

    However, a former Mariners defensive great in center field pointed out that Rodriguez needs to be careful.

    Cameron may be heartened to know that Rodriguez dove for a ball only 6 times in the 2022 regular season (catching 5). Fifteen center fielders had more diving attempts.

    What To Watch: One thing we’ll be watching from Rodriguez is his arm. Baserunners advanced 46 of 80 times they had a chance to do so on a ball Rodriguez fielded or caught. The 57.5% advance rate ranked 5th-highest among the 35 center fielders who played the most innings in 2022. That cost him 2 Defensive Runs Saved.

  • 2023 Defender To Watch: Xander Bogaerts

    2023 Defender To Watch: Xander Bogaerts

    Why is Xander Bogaerts A Defender To Watch in 2023?

    Bogaerts just signed an 11-year, $280 million contract with the Padres, for whom he’ll play shortstop, thus moving Fernando Tatis Jr. to the outfield.

    Bogaerts is coming off the best defensive season of his career. He finished with a positive Defensive Runs Saved for the first time.

    Season DRS at Shortstop
    2014 -5
    2015 -3
    2016 -10
    2017 -11
    2018 -8
    2019 -9
    2020 -4
    2021 -5
    2022 5

    What got better?

    The last two seasons in particular, Bogaerts has been far better in his weakest area – fielding balls hit to his right. From 2017 to 2019, he made 41 fewer plays than expected on balls hit that way. He’s cut that to -3 combined in 2021 and 2022.

    Additionally, of the 35 shortstops who got to the most balls on their forehand in 2022, Bogaerts had the second-highest rate of turning those into outs (94.9%), trailing only Carlos Correa (95.5%).

    Outlook

    As noted in The Bill James Handbook 2023, Bogaerts ranks as the player with the highest injury risk in 2023 by our injury tool’s projections. Bogaerts played in 150 games last season, but left four games early due to injury (hamstring, back) and was taken out of the starting lineup four other times due to lingering back or hamstring issues.

    Also, since 2021 Bogaerts has the second-highest number of sliding, diving, and jumping plays, with 150. Bodily sacrifice is one factor that impacts our injury projections. Given that Bogaerts has recorded an out on 10 of his last 72 dives, keep an eye on whether he changes his approach in that regard in 2023.