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  • Defensive Scouting Report: New York Yankees

    Defensive Scouting Report: New York Yankees

    Photo: William Purnell/Icon Sportswire

    The Yankees finished 12th in the regular season in Defensive Runs Saved. They weren’t a great defensive team, but they weren’t a bad one either. The nuance in their defensive performance is in looking more closely at the numbers, which we’re going to do here.

    Strengths

    Pitch Framing

    The Yankees led the majors in Defensive Runs Saved from their catchers in 2024. Whatever your thoughts are about pitch framing, the data shows that both Austin Wells and Jose Trevino are very good at it.

    The two combined for 20 Runs Saved this season, 15 of them from our Strike Zone Runs Saved component, which measures if catchers are getting more called strikes than their peers.

    Wells, who rates above average in the stolen base and pitch blocking components too, has gotten a couple of big called strike threes late in playoff games on borderline pitches at the knees.

     

     

    Watch how Wells drops his glove to the dirt after setting the target in both instances. This allows him to raise the glove and catch both Luke Weaver’s four-seam and Tom Kahnle’s changeup with his glove coming into the strike zone. That pitch presentation gets him strike calls that other catchers may not get.

    Shortstop

    Over the last two seasons, Anthony Volpe ranks third among shortstops in Defensive Runs Saved.

    Though Volpe’s total dipped from 15 Runs Saved in 2023 to 6 in 2024, he cut back on his Defensive Misplays & Errors from 46 to 31 while playing a similar number of innings.

    Volpe’s strength, relative to other shortstops, is making the play going up the middle. Since debuting in 2023, he has made 21 more plays than an average shortstop on balls hit to his left compared two 2 more than average on balls to his right. He made a big one in the ALDS against the Royals that play-by-play announcer Bob Costas didn’t think he had any chance of making.

     

    One thing to watch for Volpe: his double play effectiveness dipped this year. He turned one more double play than he did in 2023 but had 16 more opportunities. More on that in a second.

    Left field

    Alex Verdugo has a good track record in left field. He ranks second in Runs Saved there since the start of 2019 despite ranking 14th in innings played in that time.

    Verdugo has made some nice catches in that time, but half of his 28 Runs Saved since 2019 come from his throwing arm and either holding baserunners or eliminating them.

     

    Weaknesses

    Second Base

    Gleyber Torres looked like he had turned the corner at second base in 2022, totaling 9 Runs Saved there. But the last two seasons, his stats have reverted back to those from early in his career. He finished with -11 Runs Saved at the position. Only Jose Altuve (-13) ranked worse.

    Torres’ defensive ledger this season includes a fair number of missed opportunities for double plays. Plays like this:

     

    Torres had the most opportunities to turn a double play as either fielder or relay man of any second baseman this season. But he had the lowest percentage of successfully getting a double play (48%) among the 30 second basemen with the most opportunities.

    Center Field

    Aaron Judge has a track record of being a terrific right fielder. But like many who slide over from a corner spot to center field, defensive excellence doesn’t necessarily carry over.

    Judge finished with -9 Runs Saved in center field this season. Only three players fared worse. In particular, he didn’t do as well as other center fielders on the shallowest-hit fly balls.

    This was also Judge’s worst season in Statcast’s “jump” stats. In particular, he ranked in the bottom 10% of outfielders at both how much ground he covered in the first 1.5 seconds after a ball was hit (relative to an average center fielder) and how much ground he covered in the next 1.5 seconds.

    Three other things

    * How will it be to try to steal on the Yankees? This chart should help. The Dodgers should have opportunities to run if they can get on base against Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon, but it might be tougher against Clarke Schmidt.

    Stolen Bases-Attempts, Notable Yankees Pitchers in Regular Season

    Pitcher SB-CS
    Carlos Rodon 21-4
    Gerrit Cole 15-2
    Nestor Cortes 8-5
    Clarke Schmidt 5-7
    Luke Weaver 1-2

    * Juan Soto had a very shaky September defensively, finishing the month with -5 Runs Saved, bringing his season total in right field to -1. Yes, Soto was a Gold Glove finalist and yes, he has a strong arm. But when it comes to playmaking, he can be a bit of an adventure.

    * Circumstances might cause the Yankees to have relative newbies at both corner infield spots for extended periods of time.

    Depending on Anthony Rizzo’s health and whether a lefty is on the mound, the Yankees may have to go with Jon Berti or Oswald Cabrera. Berti hadn’t played first base as a pro until this postseason. Cabrera has 5 career regular season starts there. How they will play is hard to predict.

    Meanwhile, Jazz Chisholm has been up and down in 45 games at third base (-2 Runs Saved). Of the 40 third basemen who played the most innings in 2024, Chisholm had the third-most Misplays & Errors on a per-inning basis. The Yankees will live with the risk of those mistakes to get another potent bat in the lineup.

  • Fielding Bible Awards Preview (Part II)

    Fielding Bible Awards Preview (Part II)

     Photo: Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire

    We spend most of the year in these newsletters talking up defensive excellence across baseball. Now, we’re nearing time to reward those who were most excellent in 2024.

    This is the second of two previews for The Fielding Bible Awards, which will be announced later this month. Last week we previewed the infield and catcher positions.

    The Fielding Bible Awards are voted on by a panel of experts who can vote based on whatever criteria they choose, including observation and subjective judgement, as well as statistical analysis. Each position has one overall winner, different from the Gold Gloves which has one in each league.

    This week, Part II of our preview looks at outfielders, multi-position players, and pitchers from the perspective of the Fielding Bible Awards favorites, Gold Glove favorites, and Fielding Bible contenders.

    Defensive Runs Saved totals in parentheses, though contenders and winners are determined by vote, not statistical leadership.

    Left Field

    Fielding Bible Award Favorite: Riley Greene (14) 

    NL Gold Glove Favorite: Ian Happ (8)

    AL Gold Glove Favorite: Greene

    Fielding Bible Award Top Contenders: Wyatt Langford (12), Steven Kwan (10), Brandon Marsh (7)

    Greene, who moved to left field with the emergence of Parker Meadows, starred there, finishing second at the position in the range component of Defensive Runs Saved and boosted his total with 3 home run robberies.

    Wyatt Langford, who won September’s co-Defensive Player of the Month, two-time Fielding Bible Award winner Kwan, and two-time Gold Glove winner Happ should be his toughest competition, as each has a formidable resume as well. 

    Center Field

    Fielding Bible Award Favorites: Jarren Duran (17), Daulton Varsho (16)

    NL Gold Glove Favorites:  Jacob Young (12), Brenton Doyle (11)

    AL Gold Glove Favorites: Varsho, Duran

    Fielding Bible Award Top Contenders: Michael A. Taylor (12), Jose Siri (12), Pete Crow-Armstrong (11), Michael Harris (11)

    It’s a crowded field for the top honor in center field as 10 players finished the season with at least 10 Runs Saved (the most in a season dating back to the first season for Runs Saved, 2003).

    Varsho and Duran finished as the position leaders in Runs Saved, but both played considerably fewer innings than others there. Among those who played a lot, Siri, Young, and Doyle—who was last year’s runner-up for the Fielding Bible Award and won a Gold Glove— have reasonable shots at winning. Siri was not named a Gold Glove finalist. 

    Right Field

    Fielding Bible Award Favorites: Wilyer Abreu (17), Sal Frelick (16)

    NL Gold Glove Favorite: Frelick

    AL Gold Glove Favorite: Abreu

    Fielding Bible Award Top Contenders: Jo Adell (6), Mike Yastrzemski (5)

    As far as the Fielding Bible Award goes, this seems to be a two-person race. Abreu and Frelick were neck-and-neck in Runs Saved. Frelick led right fielders in the range component of Runs Saved with Abreu right behind him. Abreu led the position in Outfield Arm Runs Saved, with a 4-run advantage over Frelick.

    Pitcher

    Fielding Bible Award Favorites: Tanner Bibee (6), Jake Irvin (6), Spencer Schwellenbach (5) 

    NL Gold Glove Favorite:  Zack Wheeler (3)

    AL Gold Glove Favorite: Seth Lugo (5)

    Fielding Bible Award Top Contenders: Griffin Canning (5), Ranger Suárez (5), Chris Sale (4), Cole Ragans (3)

    This is another position with a lot of good candidates, with nine pitchers tallying at least 5 Runs Saved. Bibee and Irvin led the way. Both not only fielded their positions well, they also limited stolen bases. Bibee yielded 6 in 12 attempts and also had 4 pickoffs. Irvin allowed 5 in 9 attempts and had no pickoffs.

    Schwellenbach did not have enough innings pitched to qualify for the Gold Glove Award and Irvin was not voted to be one of the three finalists, thus taking arguably two of the top candidates out of that field. They did both qualify for the Fielding Bible Award, surpassing the 125 innings (or 5 Runs Saved) necessary for consideration.

    Multi-Position

    Fielding Bible Award Favorites: Daulton Varsho (28), Jarren Duran (23), Isiah Kiner-Falefa (15)

    NL Utility Gold Glove Favorite: Jared Triolo (7)

    AL Utility Gold Glove Favorite:  Mauricio Dubon (6)

    Fielding Bible Award Top Contenders: Kiké Hernández (5), Mookie Betts (2)

    Part of the challenge of this award is determining what position combinations one values. SIS uses a Versatility Score to create a 20-player pool of candidates for the field, and the field has a mix of players who were outfield only, and those who played other position combinations.

    In terms of overall excellence, Varsho and Duran, both solely outfielders, were great in both center field and left field (as former MLB outfielder Doug Glanville has told me, they’re very different positions to play). They were not finalists for MLB’s utility award.

    Kiner-Falefa was the best true utility player by Runs Saved this year, finishing with at least 3 Runs Saved at second base, shortstop, and third base. Dubon also had great versatility, playing at least 20 games at first base, second base, center field, and left field. 

  • Fielding Bible Awards Preview (Part I – Catcher and Infield)

    Fielding Bible Awards Preview (Part I – Catcher and Infield)

    We spend most of the year in these newsletters talking up defensive excellence across baseball. Now, we’re nearing time to reward those who were most excellent in 2024.

    Our next two Stat of the Weeks will focus on the top candidates for The Fielding Bible Awards, which will be announced later this month.

    The Fielding Bible Awards is voted on by a panel of experts who can vote based on whatever criteria they choose, including observation and subjective judgement, as well as statistical analysis. Each position has one overall winner, different from the Gold Gloves which has one in each league.

    This week, Part I of our preview looks at catchers and infielders from the perspective of the top Fielding Bible Awards and Gold Glove favorites and contenders.

    (Defensive Runs Saved totals in parentheses)

    Catcher

    Fielding Bible Award Favorite: Patrick Bailey (20)

    NL Gold Glove Favorite: Bailey

    AL Gold Glove Favorites: Cal Raleigh & Freddy Fermin (16)

    NL Top Contenders: Gabriel Moreno (10), William Contreras (6)

    AL Top Contenders: Alejandro Kirk (14), Jake Rogers (13),  Austin Wells (11), Bo Naylor (11)

    After finishing second in Fielding Bible Awards voting last year, Bailey became this year’s favorite by ranking first in our pitch-framing stat, Strike Zone Runs Saved (15), and tied for third in Stolen Base Runs Saved (5).

    Raleigh and Fermin are formidable competition and will be in a tight race for AL Gold Glove honors. Raleigh ranked second in Strike Zone Runs Saved. Fermin matched Bailey in Stolen Base Runs Saved and had the highest catcher block rate in MLB, blocking 96.3% of potential wild pitches.

    First Baseman

    Fielding Bible Award Favorite: Matt Olson (14)

    NL Gold Glove Favorite: Olson

    AL Gold Glove Favorites: Carlos Santana (8), Ryan Mountcastle (8)

    NL Top Contenders: Michael Toglia (10), Christian Walker (7), Bryce Harper (5), Michael Busch (5)

    AL Top Contenders: Nathaniel Lowe (1), Nolan Schanuel (1)

    Olson won the Fielding Bible Award in 2018, 2019, and 2020 and is the favorite to snare another after leading his position in Defensive Runs Saved. As has been his norm, Olson excelled at getting to balls in the ‘3/4’ hole and turning them into outs and led all first basemen in the range component of Runs Saved.

    As to who wins the AL Gold Glove at first base, Santana had his second straight strong season and has a decent chance at winning as a 38-year-old, though Mountcastle had a good year as well. There’s also intrigue in the NL as to whether Harper will be a finalist for a Gold Glove. He did a nice job in his first full season at first base. 

    Second Baseman

    Fielding Bible Award Favorites: Brice Turang (21), Andrés Giménez (20)

    NL Gold Glove Favorite: Turang

    AL Favorite: Giménez

    NL Top Contender: Ketel Marte (10)

    AL Top Contender: Marcus Semien (10)

    This should be an extremely close vote for the Fielding Bible Award. Turang had a fantastic defensive year for a Brewers team that finished with the 4th-most Runs Saved in MLB. Giménez, who won not only the Fielding Bible Award last year, but also the Platinum Glove for best AL defensive player, was right there with Turang for most of the season.  

    Both should be favored to win the Gold Glove Award in their respective leagues, though Marte and Semien are highly-credible defensive players in their own right.

    Shortstop

    Fielding Bible Award Favorite: Masyn Winn (14)

    NL Gold Glove Favorite: Winn

    AL Gold Glove Favorites: Zach Neto (11), Brayan Rocchio (10)

    NL Top Contenders: Ezequiel Tovar (9), Dansby Swanson (7)

    AL Top Contenders: Anthony Volpe (6), Gunnar Henderson (5), Bobby Witt Jr. (2)

    Winn led shortstops in Runs Saved based on the combination of his range and his leading the position in Double Play Runs Saved (6). The 6 Double Play Runs Saved matched the most for a shortstop in the 22-year history of Defensive Runs Saved.

    Shortstop is a rich position for Gold Glove contenders. By Defensive Runs Saved, Neto is the AL favorite, but the inclusion of other defensive stats in the Gold Gloves’ Sabermetric Defensive Index (SDI, which accounts for about 25% of the vote) may give others who didn’t fare as well in Runs Saved (like Swanson and Witt) a better chance.

    Third Baseman

    Fielding Bible Award Favorite: Matt Chapman (17)

    NL Gold Glove Favorite: Chapman

    AL Gold Glove Favorite: Ernie Clement (10)

    NL Top Contender: Ryan McMahon (10), Ke’Bryan Hayes (10)

    AL Top Contender: Alex Bregman (6), José Ramírez (6)

    Chapman was the runaway leader in Runs Saved in a season in which he looked similar to how he played when he won the Fielding Bible Award in 2018 and 2019. He played the second-most innings of any third baseman in 2024 and showed he is fully recovered from his 2020 hip surgery.

    Chapman’s replacement in Toronto, Ernie Clement, has a decent chance to win an AL Gold Glove, though a couple of veterans—Bregman and Ramírez—are aiming for their first Gold Glove and have a reasonable chance given their numbers. 

    Next week we’ll look at outfielders, pitchers, and the multi-position award.

  • Stat of the Week: Potential Playoff Teams Ranking Worst in Defensive Runs Saved

    Stat of the Week: Potential Playoff Teams Ranking Worst in Defensive Runs Saved

    Photo:Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire

    Of the 12 teams that would make the playoffs if the season ended today, 4 rank in the bottom 10 in Defensive Runs Saved.

    This is more teams than 2022 (1) and 2023 (2) combined. The Phillies, who were bottom 10 in each of the previous two seasons, are not among them, as they rank 15th. But let’s take a quick look at those who are in that bottom 10 group.

    Orioles (21st, -1 Runs Saved)

    The Orioles have totaled their most negative Runs Saved at second base, third base, center field and right field.

    Third base has been a problem spot injury wise, with both Jordan Westburg and Luis Urias out, though both could return soon. Westburg (0 Runs Saved in 67 games there) could solve their issues. Second base will likely be manned by Jackson Holliday (-2 Runs Saved in a small sample) or Westburg (-6).

    In center field and right field, they’re locked in with Cedric Mullins (-3) and Anthony Santander (-6). Mullins has a track record of reliability (12 Runs Saved in 2022 and 2023 combined). Santander’s 41 home runs outweigh any defensive shortcomings he has.

    Astros (22nd, -6 Runs Saved)

    The right side of the Astros infield has cost the team 20 runs with its defense this season. This is the third straight season that second baseman Jose Altuve (-10 Runs Saved) has struggled in the field, though his bat certainly offsets some of those issues.

    At first base, Jon Singleton’s first season as a full-time starter has been a below-average one, as he currently stands at -7 Runs Saved. Houston doesn’t have many alternatives to choose from.

    Twins (23rd, -7 Runs Saved)

    Byron Buxton’s return from the injured list on Friday alleviates one potential problem for the Twins. Buxton has 4 Runs Saved in center field this season. The others who have played center field for the Twins have combined for -13. So if Buxton is healthy and able to play there, that fixes one of their biggest concerns.

    Middle infield is the other statistical trouble spot. The Twins are tied for last in Defensive Runs Saved at 2nd base (-13 Runs Saved, split between Edouard Julien, Willi Castro, and Kyle Farmer). They also rank among the worst teams at shortstop (-10), though Brooks Lee has been formidable in a small sample in Carlos Correa’s absence. Correa, who may be returning soon, has a great track record though his numbers this season don’t reflect that (-1 Runs Saved).

    Padres (25th, -22 Runs Saved)

    The Padres may actually have just fixed their most notable defensive issue by sending catcher Luis Campusano, who ranked last among MLB catchers with -15 Runs Saved, to the minor leagues. For now they’ll go with Kyle Higashioka, who has graded out average or better defensively throughout his career, and Elias Díaz, who has had one of the best defensive seasons of his career (5 Runs Saved).

    The next-biggest defensive issue is left field where Jurickson Profar has -9 Runs Saved. Fellow outfielders Jackson Merrill (-2) and Fernando Tatis (-2) also haven’t matched up well with their positional peers. The Padres will live with this and hope that the bats do more damage than their defense brings about for them.

    Fewest Defensive Runs Saved – Teams (2024 Season)

    Team Runs Saved
    21. Orioles -1
    22. Astros -6
    23. Twins -7
    24. Pirates -14
    25. Padres -22
    26. Marlins -23
    27. Nationals -28
    28. Reds -30
    29. Athletics -53
    30. White Sox -84
  • Crown The Royals Pitchers No. 1 in Defensive Runs Saved

    Crown The Royals Pitchers No. 1 in Defensive Runs Saved

    Photo: William Purnell/Icon Sportswire

    In his second season as Royals pitching coach, Brian Sweeney had a new item for his priority list. He wanted his pitchers to be standouts defensively but he didn’t want to put them through the same basic drills they’d gone through in years past.

    “They’ve covered first a million times, they’ve turned double plays,” said pitching coach Brian Sweeney. “Can we make it fun?”

    The Royals have made it fun and – pardon the pun – they’ve made it work.

    They have 25 Defensive Runs Saved from their pitchers this season. That comes from a combination of fielding balls and limiting basestealers. No other team is even close to them. The second-most Runs Saved is 10 by the Mets and Guardians.

    If this sounds familiar, we wrote about it earlier this season, when we said the Royals had a staff of Zack Greinke’s. We’re bringing it up again because the Royals total is now the highest in the 22-year history of Defensive Runs Saved.

    They currently share the mark set by the 2008 Tigers. That team was led by Kenny Rogers, whose 15 Runs Saved that season are the individual best in the history of the Runs Saved stat. Rogers won 5 Gold Gloves in his career, all but one of which pre-dates the Fielding Bible Awards, which he did win in 2008. 

    The Royals are a little different. Their success is more spread out. They have 6 pitchers with at least 3 Runs Saved.

    Most Defensive Runs Saved – Royals Pitchers

    Pitcher Runs Saved
    Seth Lugo 5
    Brady Singer 4
    Michael Wacha 4
    Cole Ragans 4
    Chris Stratton 3
    James McArthur 3

    The success is the payoff for the work the team did in spring training, with the coach staff adding a layer of emphasis by creating a defensive competition for the pitchers.

    Infield coach José Alguacil, rehab coach Ryan Eigsti and bullpen coach Mitch Stetter devised some games that incorporated the pitchers fielding balls at second base and shortstop and catching fly balls. These drills in the form of games ingrained footwork and glovework into each pitcher that has come in handy as the season has gone along. 

    Look at some of the plays their pitchers have made this season.

    Pitchers get points for implementing PFP tactics in games. Seth Lugo was the best of the bunch in spring training (one example of a prize he won was a day off). There will be a tallying of the results in the regular season too.

    “Guys like to play for something,” Sweeney said.

    As mentioned, the other component of this is limiting basestealers, which the Royals have been fantastic at this season. In a season in which the average team has allowed 108 stolen bases and has been caught at a 21% rate, the Royals have held opponents to 53 stolen bases and thrown out 34%. The Royals’ stolen bases allowed total is 35 better than the next-closest team (Red Sox and Tigers 88). And the next-best percentage is 27% by the Tigers

    Defensive Runs Saved gives a portion of the credit to the pitchers and a smaller chunk to the catchers (Salvador Perez and Freddy Fermin) for thwarting stolen bases. Royals pitchers have received 10 Runs Saved for stolen base deterrence and 16 runs for their fielding batted balls. Both totals are easily best in MLB. 

    Though our stats show that most of the Royals pitchers have a better-than average time to the plate, Sweeney deferred much of the success on stopping steals to the catchers and third base/catching coach Vance Wilson. 

    He pointed out that the Royals have both advance scouted the opposition thoroughly and done some self-scouting on their pitchers to stay ahead of their opponents.

    “Of course, being quick to the plate is good but there’s more to it than that,” Sweeney said. “Eliminating tells (ways their pitchers tip off baserunners that they’re going to attempt a pickoff or throw a pitch), knowing who’s gonna run in what counts, having that awareness puts us in a better position.”

    Said Michael Wacha: “We have two catchers who have bazookas that are quick as well. It’s not a crow hop going down to second base. They’re quick with transfer and pop times. Guys won’t even attempt against us.”

    It was telling that Sweeney paused for a full two seconds before responding after we asked him his thoughts on the Royals’ stolen base stats relative to other teams. His answer summed up the mood of our conversation.

    “When you make it important and see [results] on the field it makes a pitching coach pretty happy,” Sweeney said.

     Most Defensive Runs Saved – Pitchers (2024 Season)

    Team Runs Saved
    Royals 25*
    Guardians 10
    Mets 10
    Orioles 9
    Pirates 5
    Padres 5
    Red Sox 5

    * Tied with 2008 Tigers for most since Runs Saved first tracked in 2003

     

  • Stat of the Week: One of the Most Complete Players in Baseball

    Stat of the Week: One of the Most Complete Players in Baseball

    Photo: Larry Placido/Icon Sportswire

    The signature play of Matt Chapman’s season came against the Mets on May 24. The Giants had a one-run lead with the bases loaded and two outs in the ninth inning, with Mark Vientos facing Giants reliever Camilo Doval.

    Vientos hit a slow roller along the third base line. Chapman raced in to make a barehand play and his throw beat Vientos by a hair. It was as impressive a play as any third baseman has made in 2024.

    And it fits with Chapman’s season. He’s been one-of-a-kind at his position.

    Chapman ranks tied for No. 3 in the National League and No. 1 among all third basemen with 6.0 bWAR. In terms of the individual components, Chapman has been 18 Runs Above Average as a hitter, 15 Runs Above average as a fielder (that’s his Defensive Runs Saved), and a somewhat surprising 6 Runs above Average as a baserunner.

    We say somewhat surprising because Chapman had never totaled more than 1 baserunning run in a season prior to 2024. But this season, he has 13 stolen bases in 15 attempts. Those 13 steals are more than he had in his entire seven-year career entering the season.

    Chapman also ranks 6th in a Bill James-devised stat, Baserunning Net Gain, which measures a variety of things, including how often a runner takes an extra base on a hit, advances on a wild pitch or passed ball, and avoids getting thrown out on the bases.

    Chapman’s defense isn’t really a surprise. He’s a two-time Fielding Bible Award winner and four-time Gold Glove winner. He’s been at or near the top of the third base leaderboard consistently throughout this season.

    If you think it’s odd that Chapman has a better WAR than players like Rafael Devers, José Ramírez, and Manny Machado, look to their respective Defensive Runs Saved numbers. Chapman is 10 Runs Saved better than Ramírez, 15 better than Machado and 22 better than Devers.

    Hitting-wise, Chapman’s 2024 has been the opposite of his 2023 when he started super-strong and then faltered as the season moved along. This season, Chapman started slow. He entered May 17 with a .599 OPS in 44 games. He’s had an .864 OPS since then.

    The top hitting third basemen don’t field like Chapman does and the top fielding third basemen (Ernie Clement, Ryan McMahon, Ke’Bryan Hayes among them) don’t hit like Chapman does.

    Chapman’s combination at third base is so distinct that with 6.0 bWAR, he’s at least 2 bWAR ahead of every third baseman other than Ramírez.

    In fact, the only other player this season to contribute as much run value as Chapman in hitting, fielding, and baserunning is Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran.

    Remember that Chapman had trouble finding a team as a free agent this past offseason. He came into spring training needing to prove that he was an elite player. To this point, he’s been both an elite player and a complete one.

    The Giants gave Chapman a 6-year, $150 million contract this week, a reward for his track record and his relative health since coming back from hip surgery in 2021. He’s played in nearly 93% of all games in the last four seasons.

    That said, Chapman will be 32 next April. Only three players in their age-32-or-older season have played even 70 games at third base this season (Nolan Arenado, Eugenio Suárez, and Gio Urshela). Four did so in 2023. Chapman’s next prove-it opportunity will be showing he can remain a complete player as he travels the downward slope of baseball’s aging curve.

    Most bWAR Among Third Basemen- 2024 Season

    Name Team bWAR
    Matt Chapman Giants 6.0
    José Ramírez Guardians 5.3
    Rafael Devers Red Sox 3.8
    Alec Bohm Phillies 3.4
    Josh Smith Rangers 3.3
    Ernie Clement Blue Jays 3.2
  • Guardians Defense Key To Emmanuel Clase Standing Out

    Guardians Defense Key To Emmanuel Clase Standing Out

    Photo: Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire

    On May 1, Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase was protecting a one-run lead in the bottom of the 10th inning against the Astros. With a runner on second, Mauricio Dubon poked a breaking ball to left center field that looked like it was going to be a game-tying hit.

    But two-time Fielding Bible Award-winning left fielder Steven Kwan did what Fielding Bible Award winners do. He ranged well over to left center, made a diving catch and subsequent throw to second base for a game-ending double play.

    That’s part of the story of Clase’s amazing 2024 season – how good the Guardians defense, which ranks second in the majors in Defensive Runs Saved, has been behind him.

    Clase has been one of the top closers in MLB since first taking on the role in 2021. He’s on pace to lead the AL in saves for a third straight season. His ERA currently stands at 0.70 and he hasn’t allowed more than one run in any of the 64 games he’s pitched this season.

    Clase isn’t a high-strikeout pitcher but he also doesn’t walk anyone. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is just under 7-to-1 and he’s allowed 2 home runs in 64 1/3 innings pitched all season. Clase is supposed to be good but he’s not necessarily supposed to be this good. His FIP is 2.34.

    Clase has allowed 35 hits in 64 1/3 innings pitched, a rate of fewer than 5 hits per 9 innings, and only 2 batters have reached via error.

    The Guardians have recorded 10 Defensive Runs Saved against the batted balls hit versus Clase. He’s one of 19 pitchers for whom teams have saved at least 10 runs with defense, with two other relievers in that group (Ryan Yarbrough slightly ahead of Clase and Bryan Hudson slightly behind).

    Clase has gotten the most defensive support among Guardians pitchers despite ranking 7th on the team in innings pitched.

    Because the circumstances of Clase’s appearances are often do-or-die, every play is important. The particularly good-looking ones for the Guardians with Clase on the mound have been of varied types.

     

     

    Good positioning matters too

     

    Clase got a similar level of defensive support in 2022 when the Guardians saved 9 runs behind him, but their defense didn’t do much for him in 2021 or 2023 (-1 and -3 Runs Saved, respectively)

    This whole presentation hasn’t been meant to devalue Clase’s effort. He’s done a much better job this season in terms of contact quality than he had last season (his hard-hit rate has dropped from 38% to 31%, a rate that ranks in the 96th percentile). He’s legitimately been the best relief pitcher in baseball this season. If there’s one thing to take away from this piece it’s that the Guardians have lived up to their name in how they’ve played behind him.

  • Braves Have Been Defensively Challenged in Right Field

    Braves Have Been Defensively Challenged in Right Field

    The Braves seem to have righted themselves after their record dropped to 61-56 following a loss to the Rockies on August 11. They’ve won 12 of 16 since.

    However, they have one significant flaw that they haven’t been able to fix this season no matter what they’ve tried. 

    Braves right fielders have cost the team 19 runs in Defensive Runs Saved. Their -19 matches the worst total for any team at any position. The White Sox entered today having gotten -19 Runs Saved from their shortstops.

    You don’t want to be sharing a leader spot with the 2024 White Sox.

    The Braves have one of the biggest defensive weaknesses for a team contending to win the World Series.

    They’re not the only ones with a defensive issue. 

    The Phillies have had problems at both right field and shortstop where Nick Castellanos has had his annual regular season issues and Trea Turner has taken a considerable dip in performance. The Brewers also have a veteran shortstop not playing up to his usual standards in Willy Adames. Gleyber Torres is once again well below-average defensively at second base for the Yankees. The Diamondbacks have a similar problem to the Braves in center field where no one has a positive Runs Saved total, and the player who’s there the most, Corbin Carroll, has -6 Runs Saved.

    The current Runs Saved breakdown in right field for the Braves is Ronald Acuña Jr. -7 (out for the season), Jorge Soler -5 (in only 15 games), Ramón Laureano -4, and Adam Duvall -3.

    For now, the Braves have accepted the trade-off of offense for defense and are starting Soler regularly in right field. He’s rewarded them with an .868 OPS. But they know he’s not a good option late in a game, even though he threw a runner out at home yesterday. 

    In all 3 games of their recently-concluded series with the Twins, he was pulled, once at the start of the 6th inning and twice entering the 7th inning. In all 3 instances Laureano moved from left field to right field.

    Laureano and Duvall both have good track records (Soler doesn’t). Laureano actually saved 9 runs with his right field defense last season and had 5 Runs Saved there in 2024 before coming to the Braves midseason. His value is often centered around the value of his arm. 

    Despite having a positive Runs Saved total overall in right field this season, he has -4 Range Runs Saved in right field in 2024. To his credit, he did make two very nice catches to preserve a ninth-inning lead against the Phillies last week.

    Duvall has had as many as 18 Runs Saved in left field and 7 Runs Saved in right field in a season. But given both his defensive numbers and his sub-.600 OPS, he’s not done a lot to merit considerable playing time.

    Soler has a combined -10 Runs Saved in right field in just over 350 innings over the last two seasons.

    Castellanos proved in the past that in a small sample a statistically problematic defensive player can have a good few weeks in the postseason. But that’s not exactly something you want to count on. 

    It’s entirely possible that in two months the Braves could be on the verge of winning a World Series and that this was a non-issue. The Braves are very good defensively at the infield corners with Matt Olson and (when healthy) Austin Riley. Michael Harris can chase down balls in center field. Their defense is generally pretty good elsewhere. 

    But if there’s one play to be made to win a game in October and you’re a Braves fan, you’re probably gonna be a little nervous if the ball is hit to right field.

  • Stat of the Week: A Strong Brew In Milwaukee

    Stat of the Week: A Strong Brew In Milwaukee

    Photo:Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire

    The last two days notwithstanding, the NL Central leading Brewers have come hard in a push for one of the league’s top two playoff seeds. Defense is an important part of their story.

    Milwaukee is the No. 3 team in the major leagues with 65 Defensive Runs Saved, a total that easily leads the National League. Pat Murphy’s team has continued the emphasis on sound defense that Murphy’s predecessor, Craig Counsell, placed throughout his time as manager.

    The Brewers are the only team to net at least 15 Runs Saved from three different positions—second base, center field, and right field.

    Second base is manned by Brice Turang, who leads players at the position with 20 Runs Saved. Turang was one of our Defensive Player of the Month selections in June. He was pretty good defensively last season too but struggled offensively. He’s bumped his OPS up by 95 points points to its current .680 and taken his defensive game to an elite level. Despite a below-average bat, Turang leads his team with 4.2 WAR (Baseball-Reference version).

    The outfield performance has been a group effort. In center field, Blake Perkins (7 Runs Saved), Garrett Mitchell (5), and Sal Frelick (3) have combined for 15 of the team’s 16 Runs Saved there. In right field, Frelick (11) and Jackson Chourio (9) are responsible for all of the Brewers’ 20 Runs Saved at that position.

    With Christian Yelich out for the season and Perkins just back from the injured list, the Brewers can regularly play the best version of their outfield defense with him in center field, Chourio in left field (6 Runs Saved), and Frelick in right field.

    The Brewers outfield is capable of taking away a lot of extra base hits. Milwaukee is MLB’s best team at robbing home runs this season, something that helps boost their Runs Saved total (since home run robberies literally save runs). 

    Mitchell’s home run robbery against the Cardinals yesterday was his 2nd of the season and the team’s 7th. Perkins, who has 3, is tied for the individual lead in homer-robbing catches with Stuart Fairchild of the Reds.

    The Brewers are respectable defensively at most other positions, with third base being the next-strongest of the other spots. The one player on the roster struggling this season is shortstop Willy Adames, who ranks last at the position with -12 Runs Saved. That’s in contrast to a track record consisting of five straight seasons with positive Defensive Runs Saved.

    Milwaukee’s defensive success is particularly important considering that the pitching staff has the 8th-fewest strikeouts in MLB and is tied for 5th-most home runs allowed. The Brewers’ pitchers have the greatest differential between their FIP* and ERA of any MLB team. Pitchers like Colin Rea, Tobias Meyers and Jared Koenig all have ERAs well below their FIP. The Brewers have saved 14 runs on the batted balls behind Rea, the 4th-highest total by a team for a pitcher.

    * Fielding Independent Pitching, an ERA estimate based on strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed.

    The Brewers are not going to be the favorite to get through the National League to the World Series even if they do have the league’s best record. The Dodgers have hitters you don’t want to pitch to. The Phillies have pitchers no one wants to face. But the Brewers have some guys you definitely don’t want to hit the ball to and if they go a long way this postseason, that could be a difference-maker.

    Team Runs Saved
    Guardians 76
    Blue Jays 75
    Brewers 65
    Royals 60
    Dodgers 42
    Cardinals 36
    Yankees 31
    Mariners 26
    Rangers 25
    Red Sox 25
  • July’s Defensive Players of the Month

    July’s Defensive Players of the Month

    Guardians second baseman Andrés Giménez and Blue Jays outfielder Daulton Varsho are two of the best defenders in the sport. You already know they’re great, so we’re not breaking any new ground here. But both had outstanding months, so we wanted to make sure to reward them. They’re our winners of July’s Defensive Players of the Month honors.

    Additionally, picking Defensive Player of the Month is a lot more fun if we include players who don’t necessarily stand out as household names for fielding excellence. That’s why we’re also saluting Phillies outfielder Brandon Marsh and Mets outfielder Tyrone Taylor as standout honorable mentions.

    Giménez had as good a defensive month as this author can remember in the seven years we’ve been picking this award here. He finished with an MLB-best 10 Defensive Runs Saved, raising his season total from 6 to a position-leading 16. Giménez was credited with 8 Good Fielding Plays and not charged with any Defensive Misplays or Errors.

    In addition to making some great plays on ground balls and line drives, Giménez also had a terrific relay throw to nail a runner at the plate, a leaping catch of a catcher’s wild throw to prevent an extra base being taken on a steal attempt, and a nifty backup of an errant pickoff throw to again prevent an extra base. Those instances of executing little details add to Giménez’s reputation as a defensive wonder who won the Platinum Glove last year.

    Varsho won Defensive Player of the Month for the second time in 2024 (he also won it in May). He led all outfielders with 9 Defensive Runs Saved and tied Will Benson of the Reds for the outfield lead in Good Fielding Plays with 7.

    Varsho continued to make dazzling catch after dazzling catch, putting his body on the line to make plays and save runs. He leads MLB with 12 Defensive Runs Saved as a left fielder and ranks tied for 2nd with 11 Runs Saved as a center fielder (one run off the MLB lead there). His 18 Good Fielding Plays on flies and liners are the most of any player this season.

    Marsh’s 11 Runs Saved this season barely trail Varsho for most Runs Saved by a left fielder this season. Marsh is doing his best to keep up, and he’s doing so with plays that highlight his sprinting after balls (here and here). Marsh, like Varsho, has moved around the outfield depending on his team’s need. In July Marsh had 4 Runs Saved in left field, 2 in center field and 1 in right field. 

    Taylor is another versatile outfielder who saved an MLB-best 6 Runs Saved in right field and 1 in center field in July. Taylor’s best play was this home run robbery against the Twins in the final series of the month.

    He’s improved the Mets significantly at a position that was problematic prior to Starling Marte’s injury. And though his OPS is below MLB-average and there are other factors to point to for the team’s improvements, it’s worth noting that the Mets are 28-21 when Taylor starts compared to 29-30 when he doesn’t.