Drake Maye is a young prospect with a tantalizing combination of size, athleticism, arm strength and accuracy to become a top NFL quarterback if and when the game slows down for him.
Maye is a right-handed quarterback in North Carolina’s no huddle, spread offense, where he is primarily utilized in short drops, RPOs and read options. UNC operates exclusively out of shotgun except in short-yardage situations. He played in 30 games in 3 seasons at UNC, including starting all 14 games in 2022 and each of their 12 regular season games in 2023 before declaring for the Draft. He is a young prospect who is still growing into his body, but he already shows good size, arm strength and athletic ability for the position. He is a tough player who was the clear leader of the offense, even as a redshirt freshman. He commands the no huddle well and can have the snap within 10 seconds at his fastest pace, including in the two minute drill against Duke to get the game to overtime. However, his inexperience shows up at times, including calling for the snap in an obviously illegal formation on the goal line in the same game.
Pass Game
Maye is a talented passer who is capable of flashes of brilliance. He has a clean, over-the-top release with a consistent, repeatable motion. He tends to pat the ball before he releases it, which complicates the fact that he is already not a quick processor. He needs to see things come open before he lets it rip, and it helps to present him with simplified half-field high/low reads. That said, he has enough arm that he can overcome his lack of anticipation with velocity. If he could get the ball out a hair sooner, several balls he completed out of bounds would likely be catches.
He is a very good deep ball thrower. He shows very good touch on deep fades and go balls that stress the defense in both Cover 1 and Cover 2. He can drive the ball downfield on a line without needing to put much air under it. He shows good ball placement on quick throws, and he is very good at making level-two throws down the seam. He shows great feel with the ability to take something off of his throws when he needs to. He can also ramp up his velocity with a clean pocket. Most of his misses come when the pocket is messy, and he can’t step into his throws. He also tends to miss when he has to work through his progressions and reset his feet.
Maye is very effective when he extends plays and gets into scramble drill situations. He keeps his eyes downfield against pressure and does a good job getting the ball out of his hands before the rush gets home. He usually throws well on the move, especially when running to his right and throwing to that side of the field, but he has also had some troubling turnovers in these situations, including a pick-six against Clemson in the 2022 ACC Championship. He can make outrageous jump-passes (touchdowns vs South Carolina and Clemson in 2023), but he also has some bad misses on plays where he tries to make these throws with no platform. He loves to give his receivers a chance to make plays down the field, but they let him down a lot in 2023.
Run Game
In the run game, Maye shows very good mobility. He has enough speed to be a legitimate run threat on the NFL level, but he won’t be faster than most defenders like he is in the ACC. They run a fair bit of option and read-option, but he’s a bit slow to make decisions in the read-option game. He is very dangerous on draws and can force the defense out of 2-man. He has the size to be effective on sneaks, but he isn’t a powerful runner. He is at his best on the second play when he can break contain, keep his eyes downfield, and when needed, scramble for first downs.
Last Word
Overall, Maye projects to become a strong starting quarterback with “win with” ability. At this time, he is best suited for and can be effective in a spread scheme with lots of deep shots, simplified half-field reads, and opportunities for improvisation. If he develops the ability to anticipate and progress through reads, the sky is the limit for him, with an upside comparable to Justin Herbert.
Jayden Daniels is an elite athlete with a unique set of skills that will enable him to make game-changing plays with his arm and legs.
Daniels is a Heisman trophy winning quarterback for LSU’s high-octane, shotgun, spread offense. Daniels is a five-year collegiate player, starting all 55 games he appeared in, beginning his first three years at Arizona State then transferring to LSU where he played these past two seasons. Daniels has the desired height for the position, but is rail thin and could serve to add a little mass to his frame. He is a fantastic athlete that has twitchy movements and the breakaway speed to match. His competitiveness and toughness is evident as he can play through physical contact as runner and in the pocket.
Pass Game
Daniels has a lot to like. He is calm and poised with his drops and is always under control. He does a good job of keeping his feet under him and staying square to wherever he is looking. Daniels can move defenders with his eyes, but didn’t have to often with how the offense operated. He shows good ability to go through his progressions, often not getting to option three or four, but always makes sure to reset his feet and have a strong base before throwing. Daniels has a quick and compact release which helps him get the ball out to all areas of the field. His quick release helps him when under duress and can get the ball out quickly. When given a clean pocket initially, Daniels will stand strong and routinely deliver big-time throws if given the ability to step into it. When there is quick pressure and he isn’t given the chance to be in rhythm, he is easily sped up. His feet become a little choppy, and his weight transfer isn’t as fluid, leading for some passes to sail high over his intended receivers. Daniels does have good awareness while in the pocket and feels pressure from all sides well. He does a good job staying on his toes, giving him the ability to shuffle and move quickly while also staying in phase to deliver the ball down the field. As a passer, Daniels is accurate to all fields. He does struggle with touch throws to layer the ball when he has to take some zip off. When his footwork becomes sloppy, it can lead to inaccurate passes.
Daniels is good when delivering the ball with pace and can reach all areas of the field. He also has good ball placement and does a great job of protecting his receivers from oncoming defenders and even stopping their routes to help them change directions after the catch. An area he can improve is throwing with more anticipation. He can hold the ball a beat longer than needed as he is confirming that his targets are coming open downfield.
Run Game
Daniels is dangerous as a passer, but can truly change the game with his legs. On designed runs, Daniels has enough strength and physicality to run between the tackles and get tough yards when needed. When given space, he has excellent short burst and change-of-direction skills to get around edges and make defenders miss in the open field. Daniels may be at his best when designed pass plays break down. Daniels has the short burst and quick acceleration needed to escape the pocket but also has true long speed to beat defensive backs and linebackers to spots in the open field. Daniels takes on contact at the end of runs too often and makes some poor decisions. Due to his skinnier frame, he will need to take better care of himself by sliding and dodging big hits at the next level. He’s been knocked out of multiple college games due to big hits.
Last Word
Daniels projects as a “win-with” starting quarterback at the next level with real flashes of “win because of” traits. Daniels best fits a spread offense that will allow him to use his strong arm to drive the ball down field, while also allowing him to take off and use his legs when needed. Daniels is an accurate passer with a strong arm, but does need to clean up some of his mechanics with pressure around him and throw with better anticipation.
While many crave all the NFL Draft Team Grades that publications put out the day after the draft, including us on both accounts, there are a lot of unknowns at that point. Of course, we all have our own NFL Draft prospect rankings heading into that weekend, but those players have yet to play a snap in the NFL. So, how can we really grade a team’s draft class if those players haven’t yet stepped onto an NFL field?
It usually takes at least three years to see how well a draft class turned out. While said publications, including us, don’t want to wait three years before putting out their grades on a draft class, we do both. This is the time that teams must decide on 5th-year options for their 1st Round picks. Additionally, this gives these players a rookie season and two full years after that to get settled in and playing time under their belt.
Three years ago, Sports Info Solutions published the 3rd edition of The SIS Football Rookie Handbook. After the 2021 NFL Draft, we, just as many others, posted our NFL Draft Team Grades, which can be seen here. It’s worth noting we don’t give out letter grades like most. We rank the teams from 1 to 32 in terms of how much talent they got as an entire class.
Just as I did last year, in the article you can see here, I’ve developed a system to evaluate the draft classes using Total Points relative to position as the foundation. Three seasons have now gone by since the 2021 NFL Draft. So, let’s use that to truly see how each team did with getting value from its selections and draft class as a whole.
Our TLDR Top Things To Know
We ranked the Lions No. 1 in our 2021 post-draft ranking. Three years later the Chiefs rank No. 1 according to our stat for assessing it, Total Points Score (TP Score), followed by the Lions, Jaguars, Dolphins, and Bears.
The Rams ranked last both in our original rankings in 2021 and in TP Score three years later.
The Jaguars, Broncos, and Jets accrued the most Total Points from their draft classes
How much value did teams get?
Let’s take a look at how we ranked teams after the 2021 NFL Draft and then who got the most and least value. See the Appendix below to see how all 32 teams ranked in our 2021 rankings and in TP Score.
Here are the teams we ranked at the top immediately following the draft back in 2021. To see our scouting grading scale, check out our NFL Draft site.
Top 5 Teams in 2021 Post-Draft Rankings
Team
Book Rank
Grade
Lions
1
6.60
Dolphins
2
6.46
Browns
3
6.44
Jaguars
4
6.40
Falcons
5
6.38
TP Score will be defined below, but here are the top 5 teams based on how much value they received from their draft class.
Top 5 Teams in TP Score
Team
TP Rank
TP Score
Chiefs
1
83.33
Lions
2
80.82
Jaguars
3
80.72
Dolphins
4
66.22
Bears
5
65.39
In our post-draft rankings in 2021, we tabbed the Lions as the No. 1 draft class, and they just got edged out by the Chiefs for No. 1 three years later. In Brad Holmes’ first draft with the Lions, he was able to draft two of the top 10 players in Total Points over the last three years: Penei Sewell and Amon-Ra St. Brown, with both signing contract extensions just before the Draft.
We also had the Jaguars and Dolphins in our top 5 who also ended up there after three seasons. Trevor Lawrence has been a mixed bag, but when he’s looked good, he’s been really good, amassing the most Total Points in the draft class. Additionally, Tyson Campbell’s 116 Total Points is the 6th-most. The Dolphins nailed their first four picks in Jaylen Waddle (59 Total Points), Jaelan Phillips (80), Jevon Holland (91), and Liam Eichenberg (61).
As for the Chiefs, we were high on Nick Bolton, Creed Humphrey, and Trey Smith, grading them as 6.6 or 6.7 players, but they even surpassed those expectations, as we ranked them 21st post-draft. Between the three of them, they totaled 263 Total Points and would’ve ranked 10th among full teams themselves. While Joshua Kaindoh and Cornell Powell didn’t contribute much, they still hit on four of their six picks, which is a great percentage.
The Bears round out the top 5 of TP Score, and we originally ranked them 16th immediately following the 2021 Draft. Justin Fields finally started to turn the corner, though he was traded to Pittsburgh this offseason. We were also high on Teven Jenkins, but the other five members of their class graded out between a 5.9 and 6.3 for us. We felt they would all contribute, but most, especially Larry Borom and Khalil Herbert, exceeded our expectations.
Conversely, here are the bottom 5 teams from our 2021 rankings.
Bottom 5 Teams in 2021 Post-Draft Rankings
Team
Book Rank
Grade
Bills
28
6.14
Saints
29
6.12
Cowboys
30
6.11
Colts
31
6.07
Rams
32
5.82
Based on TP Score, here are the worst teams in terms of getting value from their 2021 draft picks.
Bottom 5 Teams in TP Score
Team
TP Rank
TP Score
Giants
28
20.22
Panthers
29
20.02
Seahawks
30
20.00
Vikings
31
17.08
Rams
32
15.48
The big bullseye here was the Rams. We were very low on their draft class initially, and they haven’t done anything to disprove that. While we admit omitting Ernest Jones from the book was a big miss on our part, he garnered 75 of their 114 Total Points from the entire class. He and Ben Skowronek were the only picks to play above average relative to their position among the draft class.
While we ranked the Seahawks (26th) and Vikings (23rd) low initially, we missed on the Giants (12th) and Panthers (9th).
Kadarius Toney and Azeez Ojulari have been above-average players, but Aaron Robinson and Rodarius Williams (SIS No. 5 CB) have been disappointing in New York. As for Carolina, aside from their three above-average players (Jaycee Horn, Brady Christensen, and Tommy Tremble), six of their eight other picks we felt were 6.4s or better, but they’ve only combined for a total of 26 Total Points.
Determining Total Points Score
In case you missed last year’s article, let’s explain the process of creating each team’s TP Score. When looking back to see how good or bad a specific draft class was, there are two main points to detect:
How productive were the draft picks on the field?
How much talent did the team draft relative to the amount of picks they made?
As in: Did they hit on one player or did they hit on multiple players?
To determine the value of the draft classes, I used Total Points, our flagship player value stat, from across the last three seasons. However, for those of you who are familiar with Total Points, it gives a lot of extra weight to quarterbacks. With that said, Trevor Lawrence alone would have had the 14th best draft class with his 232 Total Points if we just used raw Total Points.
While there is a reason we weigh quarterbacks so much more compared to other positions (they are pretty important), using that raw number in this sense isn’t going to make for a perfect match. While getting your franchise quarterback is a huge win, it doesn’t automatically give you a top class. This year, Jacksonville ended up with the 3rd-highest TP Score, and I think most would agree they had a good class, but not the best.
Now, answering question 2 takes into account how well a team drafted throughout the entirety of the draft class. I found the average Total Points per player from the 2021 class at each position, including UDFAs who have taken at least one offensive or defensive snap, since they were also available to be selected.
The positional averages are shown in the table below.
Pos
TP per Player
QB
56.7
RB
8.5
WR
12.6
TE
15.2
OL
30.1
DE
17.2
DT
12.4
LB
23.2
CB
34.3
S
30.1
The TP Score, as referenced earlier, is what’s used to rank the teams. It is calculated as follows:
Add up the Total Points from the entire team’s draft class
Divide that number by the number of selections the team had
Multiply that number by the percentage of draft picks that were above the average Total Points for their given position
Add that to the original Total Points per draft pick
In these 4 steps, we are essentially answering how productive the draft class was and how many picks were “hits”. Let’s run through an example using our No. 1 team, the Kansas City Chiefs.
Here is their draft class:
Pos
Player
Total Points
LB
Nick Bolton
75
OL
Creed Humphrey
103
DE
Joshua Kaindoh
0
TE
Noah Gray
37
WR
Cornell Powell
0
OL
Trey Smith
85
Add up the Total Points from the entire team’s draft class
300
Divide that number by the number of selections the team had
300 Total Points divided by 6 selections equals 50.00
Multiply that number by the percentage of draft picks that were above the average Total Points for their given position
Bolton, Humphrey, Gray, and Smith all accumulated a Total Points number that was above average compared to their position groups
50.00 times 66.7% (4 out of 6) equals 33.33
Add that to the original Total Points per draft pick
50.00 plus 33.33 equals 83.33, which is their TP Score
—
So, to summarize, we took the team’s Total Points gained from these players, dispersed it throughout the entire class and then gave a bump based on how many above-average players they drafted.
Now that we know how the teams ranked and how the TP Score is calculated, let’s dive into some of the other details.
Other Key Takeaways
– No teams hit on at least 75% of their picks that year. At least two teams did that in each of the past two seasons, but none did with this class. However, the Bears and Lions went 5-of-7 (71%), the Chiefs went 4-of-6 (67%), and the Jets went 6-of-10 (60%). Levi Onwuzurike of the Lions came less than a half-point short of the DT average or he would’ve given Detroit a sixth hit and the No. 1 class.
– The Jets’ six hits were the most of any team. They ranked 7th in TP Score. They hit on six of their first seven picks, getting at least 30 Total Points from each of them, though three of them have played significant snaps for other teams. Zach Wilson has been traded to Denver and hasn’t been anything like what Jets fans hoped, but he did sneak into being an above-average player in what was a brutal quarterback class.
– Every team drafted at least one player who has played above the positional average compared to the rest of the draft class. However, the Saints (Payton Turner), Raiders (Alex Leatherwood), 49ers (Trey Lance), Titans (Caleb Farley), Seahawks (Dee Eskridge), Rams (Tutu Atwell), and Texans (Davis Mills) were the only teams whose first draft selection wasn’t an above-average player. This is the second year in a row that’s been the case for Las Vegas, Tennessee, Los Angeles, and Houston.
– The three teams with the most raw Total Points are the Jaguars (467), Broncos (388), and Jets (360). Jacksonville leading the way isn’t a surprise given how valuable Trevor Lawrence has been. Denver and New York ranked No. 6 and No. 7 in TP Score, as well. We detailed the Jets already, so for the Broncos, they hit a massive home run with Patrick Surtain II, who has accumulated 161 Total Points, 2nd-most in the class behind Lawrence.
– The Seahawks (45), Giants (91), and Rams (114) totaled the least amount of Total Points from their 2021 draft class. Seattle didn’t have a pick in Round 1 and had only three picks total. They missed with their first selection Dee Eskridge in Round 2. Their only hit was Tre Brown in the 4th Round, as he’s accumulated 35 of their 45 Total Points.
– Of the three first-rounders who weren’t above-average players (not including Alex Leatherwood), it’s no surprise none of them got their 5th-year Option picked up. Of the 16 players whose options were picked up, minus those who received extensions, the only one who didn’t rank in the top 8 of their position group among the class was Alijah Vera-Tucker. His 48 Total Points placed him 16th among the offensive linemen.
– Now that we’re three years into this, we can begin to take a broader look across seasons.
The Chiefs have the highest average TP Score across the last three seasons with 65.48, nearly 10 points higher than the Jaguars in 2nd. Check out the entire list in the Appendix.
– Conversely, the Rams are the only team with an average ranking in the bottom 8, and they also rank dead last with an average TP Score of just 23.58. As a whole, this does make some sense. They haven’t made a 1st-Round pick in any of these seasons, so it’s likely they aren’t going to get a high-end impact player, but it’s telling that they’ve struggled to find much value in the later rounds of drafts.
– Now the real question is how do our initial rankings compare to those numbers?
The Chiefs have had the highest average TP Score in three years, but we’ve given them the 2nd-worst cumulative ranking post-draft. Omitting L’Jarius Snead in 2020 played into that, but that’s clearly the biggest miss on our part. However, it’s worth noting that they’ve been able to take players who fit their scheme perfectly and make them work when they may not elsewhere.
Additionally, our average top 10 post-draft teams who also have an average TP Score rank in the top 10 include the Bengals, Dolphins, Jaguars, and Broncos. Conversely, matches in the bottom 10 include the Colts, Seahawks, and Vikings. Teams we match in the middle 12 include the Titans, Cowboys, and Jets.
While we’ve been way too low on the Chiefs post-draft each year, conversely, we’ve been way too high on the Ravens. We’ve averaged giving them the 5th-best (tied) class across the three seasons immediately after the draft, but they have just the 25th-best TP Score.
How do our Initial Grades Compare?
44% (14/32) of our initial ranks were in the correct half, meaning a team we ranked between 1 and 16 or 17 and 32 was ultimately in that tier, which is a dip from the last two seasons. However, we hit 3 of the top 5 and the last-ranked Rams. Additionally, 17 of the teams were only a single-digit difference from post-draft to now.
The biggest differences in our initial grades and these final rankings were the Chiefs (20 spots), Saints (20 spots), and the Panthers (20 spots). We had Kansas City and New Orleans fairly low post-draft and we were high on Carolina. The Saints and Panthers flip-flopped, as we ranked the Saints 29th initially and they ended up 9th, whereas the Panthers were initially ranked 9th and ended up 29th. The 20-spot difference as the biggest difference is an improvement over previous years.
For New Orleans, even with Payton Turner, who we felt was a versatile backup with a 6.2 grade, not working out, Pete Werner and Paulson Adebo have been outstanding and exceeded our initial grades. We graded them as a 6.2 and 6.4, respectively.
Some players we unfortunately omitted from the Handbook were Brandon Stephens, Ernest Jones, and Dan Moore Jr. Stephens’ 94 Total Points is 4th-most among CBs in the class and just outside the top 10 overall. Jones and Moore each have accumulated 75 and 68 Total Points, respectively.
What were some of our biggest misses elsewhere? All three players selected in Round 3 that we didn’t feature in the book have been big contributors. That includes Stephens, Jones, and Milton Williams. Additionally, while we felt Tyson Campbell (6.5 grade, SIS No. 12 CB) and Paulson Adebo (6.4 grade, SIS No. 15 CB) would be No. 3 CBs by Year 2, which is a strong role given today’s NFL, they’ve outperformed those grades, ranking No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, among CBs in the class and were top 6 in Total Points overall.
Let’s take a look at some of our biggest wins.
Excluding Dan Moore Jr., the other five players selected in Round 4 that we didn’t feature in the book (Kene Nwangwu, Zech McPhearson, Janarius Robinson, Buddy Johnson, and Jacob Harris), have combined for -1 Total Point.
Anthony Schwartz was our 36th-ranked WR and was drafted in the 3rd Round, but has -5 Total Points in 25 games, worst among all WRs in the class. Three other players drafted in the 4th Round ranked low on our boards and have struggled. Josh Ball (SIS No. 20 OT) has -1 Total Point (worst among OL). Jordan Smith (SIS No. 26 ED) has -1 Total Point (worst among DE/EDGE). Joshua Kaindoh was our last-ranked EDGE (No. 31) and has 0 Total Points, only played in three games, and is no longer on the team.
The table below shows the top Total Points earners across the past three seasons from the draft class and how we graded and ranked them in the Handbook pre-draft.
Rank
Position
Player
Total Points
SIS Grade
SIS Pos Rank
1
QB
Trevor Lawrence
232
7.2
1
2
CB
Patrick Surtain II
161
7.0
1
3
LB
Micah Parsons
148
6.7
4
4
CB
Paulson Adebo
132
6.4
15
5
QB
Justin Fields
132
6.9
2
6
CB
Tyson Campbell
116
6.5
12
7
OG
Landon Dickerson
113
6.7
3 (OC)
8
WR
Amon-Ra St. Brown
111
6.4
11
9
QB
Mac Jones
111
6.6
5
10
OT
Penei Sewell
106
7.2
1
As mentioned before, we were a bit low on Adebo and Campbell. We graded Parsons as a Will linebacker with some pass-rush upside, but had no idea the impact he’d eventually make in the NFL. It’s easy to see why Detroit and Jacksonville ranked in our top 3 in TP Score, and top 4 post-draft, as each have two players on this list.
Conclusion
Nobody really knows how a draft class is going to turn out immediately after the draft, yet it still makes sense to grade and rank the teams based on player grades for an initial reaction.
Post-draft grades are great in a sense, but they should be taken with a grain of salt. Once three years go by and we’ve seen what these players have done in the NFL, we can get a better sense of how good the team drafted.
These rankings are all about finding which teams drafted the best draft class as a whole, not just who got the best player. While there are some players who didn’t play for the team that drafted them for the entirety of the past three seasons, that wasn’t taken into account since those decisions came after the initial drafting of these players, which is what this is based on.
An example of that from this class is Jason Pinnock, who was drafted by the Jets and has 54 Total Points, but played only 12 games and about 200 snaps for them in 2021 before playing 30 games and nearly 1,500 snaps across the past two seasons for the Giants.
It’s not a perfect science, but it does a good job at pulling player value and seeing how well teams drafted as a whole class relative to the amount of selections they were afforded.
Three years later, the comparison between our initial rankings and these rankings aren’t terrible for Year 3 (in both our grading and our scouting process). We made some improvements from Year 2 to Year 3, like adding 34 more players to the Handbook and featuring 19 (6%) more who were drafted. Though, we hope this article next year takes a large positive swing as we went into Year 4 in the 2022 draft cycle and the first year with our new website. As with everything we do here, we hope this improves year over year and can look back and say we kept getting better every day.
Appendix
2021 SIS Post-Draft Rankings based on the SIS Football Rookie Handbook
Team
Book Rank
Grade
Lions
1
6.60
Dolphins
2
6.46
Browns
3
6.44
Jaguars
4
6.40
Falcons
5
6.38
Packers
6
6.37
Chargers
7
6.37
Broncos
8
6.36
Panthers
9
6.35
Patriots
10
6.35
Bengals
11
6.34
Giants
12
6.32
49ers
13
6.30
Titans
14
6.30
Raiders
15
6.30
Bears
16
6.30
Texans
17
6.30
Ravens
18
6.28
Eagles
19
6.26
Steelers
20
6.23
Chiefs
21
6.23
Jets
22
6.22
Vikings
23
6.20
Cardinals
24
6.20
Buccaneers
25
6.20
Seahawks
26
6.20
Washington
27
6.14
Bills
28
6.14
Saints
29
6.12
Cowboys
30
6.11
Colts
31
6.07
Rams
32
5.82
TP Rank based on TP Score and how much value each team got from their draft picks over the last three seasons
Team
TP Rank
TP Score
Chiefs
1
83.33
Lions
2
80.82
Jaguars
3
80.72
Dolphins
4
66.22
Bears
5
65.39
Broncos
6
58.20
Jets
7
57.60
Commanders
8
47.55
Saints
9
46.89
Texans
10
45.12
Bills
11
41.42
49ers
12
39.75
Eagles
13
39.32
Falcons
14
36.89
Steelers
15
36.00
Cowboys
16
35.83
Patriots
17
35.23
Colts
18
35.02
Raiders
19
34.29
Chargers
20
33.04
Ravens
21
32.31
Browns
22
31.88
Packers
23
29.37
Cardinals
24
28.98
Titans
25
24.00
Bengals
26
22.75
Buccaneers
27
22.59
Giants
28
20.22
Panthers
29
20.02
Seahawks
30
20.00
Vikings
31
17.08
Rams
32
15.48
Average TP Score and ranking across all three seasons (the 2019-2021 draft classes after their first three seasons in 2022-2024)
If you want our full thoughts on the players your team has added plus any UDFA, you can check out our Big Board for tons of great information. And if you’d like to contribute to next year’s draft cycle, consider applying to our Football Data Scout position.
Welcome to our annual NFL Draft Report Card, in which we grade both the teams and ourselves on how well they fared in this NFL Draft.
First off, we grade ourselves on how many players were drafted that we had featured on our NFL Draft website. After having 69% (174 of 254) of drafted players in the book in 2019, 78% (199 of 255) in 2020, 84% (218 of 259) in 2021, 86% (226 of 262) in 2022 (Year 1 online), and 92% (238 of 259) in 2023, we finished the 2024 draft cycle with 94% (241 of 257).
When taking out specialists and international players, which we currently don’t write up, there were only 10 players drafted who weren’t on the site and only 2 of which we didn’t formally watch. That’s over 99% of the NFL Draft covered! Plus, many players we had on the site who didn’t get drafted have already signed free agent deals with teams.
Using our grades, we attempted to rank each team’s draft class. Just like in our article from last season, we assigned all players who were drafted but not on the site a 5.4, which is the equivalent to a training camp body. We took those grades for each player and divided that by the number of selections the team had.
These rankings do not account for positional value, the value of where players were drafted, or trades teams made; it is literally based on the grades we gave the players who were drafted and how much talent we feel teams got from their selections compared to the number of picks they made.
And with that, the 2024 Best Draft Class, with an average grade of 6.46, goes to the Chicago Bears. They may have only had five draft picks, but they made the most of them. Even with drafting a punter in the 4th Round, they still managed to obtain good talent with their selections.
The Bears draft class is in the table below.
Chicago Bears 2024 Draft Class
Pick
Position
Player
College
Grade
1
QB
Caleb Williams
USC
7.0
9
WR
Rome Odunze
Washington
6.9
75
OT
Kiran Amegadjie
Yale
6.5
122
P
Tory Taylor
Iowa
5.4
144
ED
Austin Booker
Kansas
6.5
After trading away the No. 1 pick in 2023 to give the Panthers Bryce Young and our top Draft Class, the Bears took their quarterback of the future in USC’s Caleb Williams. Williams was our top-ranked QB and our No. 2 player overall.
With their second selection of Round 1, Chicago grabbed wide receiver Rome Odunze out of Washington. Odunze was our No. 3 WR, but No. 5 player overall. In almost any other draft, he’s likely the top WR on the board, but he’s behind Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers in this class. However, that shouldn’t impact his play at the next level. He’ll partner up with DJ Moore and recently-acquired Keenan Allen to form a legit three-headed monster at receiver.
With no picks in the 2nd Round, the Bears next selection came at No. 75 when they selected tackle Kiran Amegadjie (SIS No. 10 OT, No. 56 Overall) out of Yale. Unfortunately, Amegadjie missed all but four games in 2023 due to injury. With that injury, he hasn’t played a ton of football and is very raw, but the measurables and what he’s shown while he has been on the field suggests he has a lot of upside.
Their final two picks were Tory Taylor, punter out of Iowa, and edge rusher Austin Booker (SIS No. 6 ED, No. 50 Overall), out of Kansas. Taylor may be turning 27-years-old soon, but he’s one of the better punter prospects to come out in recent years. Booker was a great value in the 5th Round, as the Bears traded back in to take him since he was still on the board.
SIS Top Draft Classes
Year
Team
Previous Season
Following Season
2nd Season
2019
Tennessee Titans
9-7 (No Playoffs)
9-7 (L, AFC Champ)
11-5 (L, Wild Card)
2020
Cleveland Browns
6-10 (No Playoffs)
11-5 (L, Divisional)
8-9
2021
Detroit Lions
5-11 (No Playoffs)
3-13-1
9-8
2022
New York Jets
4-13 (No Playoffs)
7-10
7-10
2023
Carolina Panthers
7-10 (No Playoffs)
2-15
?
2024
Chicago Bears
7-10 (No Playoffs)
?
?
Since we grade players based on what they will be at the beginning of Year 2, let’s widen the table of our recent Draft Class winners.
After winning as top class in 2019, the Titans made consecutive playoff appearances. While the Browns made the playoffs the next year, the turmoil in that locker room in 2021 forced a fall to 8-9. The Lions did take a dip in 2021 in the first year of a new regime, but they took a huge step forward in 2022, nearly making the playoffs, and then going all the way to the NFC Championship this past season.
As for the Jets, they improved their record in 2022 and had both the Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year (Garret Wilson and Sauce Gardner), but expectations fell in 2023 when Aaron Rodgers went down in Week 1. The Panthers were tough to watch last season, and Bryce Young really struggled, but he wasn’t helped much with a coaching change midseason and a rough roster around him.
What does that mean for the Bears? They decided to move on from Justin Fields and will now have this year’s No. 1 overall pick lining up at quarterback to go with a ton of weapons on the offensive side. The team likely isn’t in a position to compete for a Super Bowl just yet, but they have a lot of the core pieces to make a run sooner rather than later. Don’t be shocked if the NFC North is one of the toughest divisions in football in 2024.
Now, let’s check out how the rest of the teams fared in our rankings. Here are the draft classes ranked in order of their grade:
2024 Final Rankings
Rank
Team
# of Picks
Draft Grade
1
Bears
5
6.46
2
Giants
6
6.42
3
Lions
6
6.38
4
Titans
7
6.31
5
Steelers
7
6.29
6
Chiefs
7
6.27
7
Broncos
7
6.26
8
Patriots
8
6.24
9
Panthers
7
6.23
10
Cardinals
12
6.21
11
Chargers
9
6.20
12
Raiders
8
6.20
13
Buccaneers
7
6.19
14
Rams
10
6.18
15
Ravens
9
6.17
16
Texans
9
6.17
17
49ers
8
6.16
18
Saints
7
6.16
19
Commanders
9
6.13
20
Jets
7
6.11
21
Bengals
10
6.10
22
Vikings
7
6.10
23
Seahawks
8
6.09
24
Falcons
8
6.09
25
Bills
10
6.08
26
Cowboys
8
6.08
27
Packers
11
6.07
28
Colts
9
6.07
29
Dolphins
7
6.06
30
Eagles
9
6.04
31
Browns
6
5.95
32
Jaguars
9
5.93
Some thought the Giants could draft a quarterback, but they decided not to, taking our No. 4 overall player, Malik Nabers, instead. The Lions, Titans, and Steelers rounded out the top 5. Detroit was able to grab four players from our top 100 in their six selections. They’ve had Top-8 classes all four years of the Brad Holmes/Dan Campbell era. Additionally, the Panthers put together the No. 9 class after last year’s No. 1, as they look to get back on track.
The bottom three teams for 2023, listed 30 to 32, were the Eagles, Browns, and Jaguars.
We’ll preface this by saying the Eagles knocked their first two picks out of the park, grabbing two of our top 6 cornerbacks in Quinyon Mitchell (SIS No. 3 CB, No. 18 Overall) and Cooper DeJean (SIS No. 6 CB, No. 34 Overall). They also added running back Will Shipley (SIS No. 5 RB) in the 4th Round, who we feel could be a difference maker on 3rd downs. However, the rest of their picks, while most have a lot of upside with high ceilings, we feel they are backups early on in their careers. Their Top-2 draft classes from the past two years have set them up in a good spot moving forward regardless how most of this year’s class shakes out.
The Browns only had six picks this year with their first one not coming until Round 2 and only three in the top 200 picks, but they only took one player we felt was going to be a starter by his second season: guard Zak Zinter (SIS No. 8 OG). Understandably, we were a bit lower on defensive tackle Michael Hall Jr. (SIS DT No. 12) than consensus, as we feel he’s a top backup early in his career. The rest of their picks should prove as strong depth, but it may be a few years until they become solid starters.
This year’s worst class goes to the Jaguars. This comes a year after they ranked No. 31. They traded back and selected Brian Thomas Jr. (SIS No. 5 WR, No. 23 Overall), who should become a strong target and deep threat for Trevor Lawrence, but aside from him, only Javon Foster (SIS No. 15 OT) graded out as better than a top backup. While Maason Smith (SIS No. 13 DT) has the measurables and a high ceiling, we thought a mid-2nd Round pick was a bit of a reach.
The 49ers took home our worst class in 2023 and still made the Super Bowl, so there is still hope for Jacksonville moving forward.
Key Facts
* With only 16 players drafted this year who weren’t featured on the site, many teams added a lot of talent in this year’s draft. Only two teams drafted more than one player who wasn’t featured on the site: the Colts and Vikings, though one of Minnesota’s picks was a kicker.
* All four teams in the AFC West ranked in our top 12 this year, further suggesting that the division could get back on track as being one of the toughest in the NFL.
* Typically teams with a lot of picks rank near the bottom just due to sheer volume and only a limited number of quality players, but the Cardinals need a shoutout this year. Even with drafting 12 players, they came in with the No. 10 ranking for us. Getting Marvin Harrison Jr., our No. 1 overall player, at No. 4 helped set them up for success throughout, but they also drafted four other players who we graded a 6.5 as starting-level players.
* The Panthers have the best average SIS Draft Class rank over our six seasons doing this. However, the Panthers and Lions are tied with the best grade average based on our player grades over that same span. The Titans, Raiders, and Ravens round out the top 5 draft class ranks. Compared to last year, Baltimore dropped a spot to fifth, Tennessee and Las Vegas entered the top 5, and Philadelphia dropped out. The Colts continue to bring up the rear. Last year’s No. 11 ranking is the only time they’ve ever ranked in our top 25, so it may be a while before they climb up the rankings.
* Only four players from our top 100 went undrafted this year, but each quickly signed UDFA deals with teams soon after the draft concluded. Leonard Taylor III (SIS No. 5 DT, No. 46 Overall) has signed with the Jets. Gabriel Murphy (SIS No. 9 ED, No. 61 Overall) has signed with the Vikings. Jalen Sundell (SIS No. 6 OG, No. 72 Overall) has signed with the Browns. Tight end Dallin Holker (SIS No. 6 TE, No. 75 Overall) has signed with the Saints.
Ivan Pace Jr. went undrafted last year after being labeled our No. 51 overall player, and he played his way into Minnesota’s starting lineup and onto our All-Rookie Team.
How the NFL Draft Site Compared to the Draft
Let’s take a look at how the website stacks up to the NFL’s thinking of where players were selected.
On offense, the first player drafted at every position except RB was the No. 1 player on our board. Jonathon Brooks was the first running back off the board, but was our No. 2 ranked RB.
On defense, the top player at each position matched the first player drafted for nose tackle, middle linebacker, and safety. At defensive tackle, edge rusher, Will linebacker, and cornerback, the top player drafted at the position was either our No. 2 or No. 3 player.
The top 5 quarterbacks that went off the board matched our top 5, but in a slightly different order. The positions that had four of the top 5 going off the board that matched our rankings were wide receiver, tackle (matched the top 4), center, nose tackle, edge, and cornerback. The only two players we graded within the top 5 of their position group who were not drafted were DT Leonard Taylor III (previously mentioned) and Nathan Pickering (SIS No. 5 NT), though Pickering was ranked No. 376 on our board.
Overdrafted?
Bo Nix (SIS No. 6 QB) was our only player graded as a 6.3 or lower to be drafted in Round 1 and was actually ranked outside our top 100. Denver looks to be a perfect fit for him, but he’s got some things to prove before showing he can potentially be a win-with quarterback, which is why we graded him as a circumstantial starter/quality backup.
The only offensive player we graded a 5.9 who went off the board before Round 3 was Ben Sinnott (SIS No. 7 TE) who was drafted at No. 53. His athletic testing numbers suggest he’s got high upside, but the athleticism didn’t translate to the field enough to warrant a starting grade early in his career.
As mentioned before, Maason Smith and Michael Hall Jr. were both off the board in Round 2, but we had a 5.9 top backup grade on both of them. Both are young and have high ceilings, but we feel it may take a couple years of development before they can become impact starters.
Staying on the defensive side of the ball, Edgerrin Cooper (SIS No. 3 WLB) was taken with pick No. 45. He may have been our No. 3 WLB, but we also only had a 5.9 grade on him. He’s a ridiculous athlete with a ton of upside, but it’ll be a couple years before he reaches a starting level. Additionally, Marshawn Kneeland (SIS No. 14 ED) was taken No. 56 overall. He has some potential versatility, but we also graded him as a 5.9 top backup.
Some other players we believe were taken too early for the roles we project them to are Tip Reiman, Marist Liufau, and Jalyx Hunt, three players who were Top-100 selections and received grades a notch below a top backup.
The first eligible player (non-specialist or international player) taken who we did not give a strong enough grade to reach the threshold we set for the website was Falcons WR Casey Washington, taken in the 6th round, No. 187 overall. Additionally, the first player who went off the board that we didn’t get a formal look or report on was Texans LB Jamal Hill who went one pick later at No. 188. The only other player we didn’t get a look at was Michael Jurgens who was selected by the Vikings in the 7th Round at No. 230.
Underdrafted?
Tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders (SIS No. 2 TE, No. 25 Overall) was the only 6.7 not selected inside the top 100, and he went to the Panthers with the first pick of Round 4 at No. 101.
The Lions scooped up Mekhi Wingo (SIS No. 3 DT, No. 39 Overall) and Christian Mahogany (SIS No. 5 OG, No. 51 Overall) in the 6th Round, which we feel is great value.
The only other 6.5 or above players selected in the final two rounds was Walter Rouse (SIS No. 12 OT, No. 70 Overall) by the Vikings at pick No. 177 and Beaux Limmer (SIS No. 3 OC, No. 49 Overall) who went to the Rams at pick No. 217. We like all of these players’ chances to come in and outperform their draft positions.
Conclusion
Every year the SIS scouting department looks to make improvements, and this year was no different. With the SIS Football Operation growing the way it is, our time is somewhat limited when it comes to scouting. However, we got a huge help from some of our Live Data scouts in January and February to knock out many of the final first looks we needed to get on players.
Our six-man scouting team, consisting of Nathan Cooper, Jordan Edwards, Jeff Dean, Ben Hrkach, Chad Tedder, and Jeremy Percy, put in the hard work to finalize over 670 reports, of which 388 were featured on our NFL Draft site. This is the first time in three years we put less than 400 players on the site, but that’s due to a limited number of draftable players because of the COVID year and us tightening up our grading.
Even with having less players on the site, the number of drafted non-specialist/fullback/international players not featured on our site went down again, as did the number of players drafted on whom we didn’t have eyes on at all (only 2 out of 257!). As we noted, our Top-100 evaluations were a big success with 72 of our top 100 drafted in the first 100 picks and only four not selected at all.
That the first player not featured on the website, outside of the specialists/international players, was drafted in the 6th round is also a huge success. With Qwan’tez Stiggers and Travis Clayton being drafted out of the CFL and as an English rugby player, respectively, we may just have to start expanding our reach moving forward.
We want to thank The 33rd Team for allowing us to house our draft content on their site this year, as we really feel like it helped expand the reach of our scouting reports and showed everyone the type of quality reports and data we produce.
Please continue to check out our NFL Draft website as the offseason continues. If you’d like to be involved in our scouting and charting processes next year, consider applying to our Football Data Scout position. We’re taking applications and interviewing for next year’s class now.
Every year since before I can remember, I do my own Mock Draft. I only do one, and it’s done within a day or two prior to Draft Day.
Not only do I try to tackle the first round, but I predict the entire draft, all 257 picks.
What order do the QBs go in at the top? How many offensive tackles and wide receivers land in Round 1? Who will be Mr. Irrelevant?
Without projecting trades and, instead, trying to match players to teams, I attempt to answer those questions and more now.
Round 1
Pick
Team
Player
College
1
Bears
QB Caleb Williams
USC
2
Commanders
QB Jayden Daniels
LSU
3
Patriots
QB Drake Maye
North Carolina
4
Cardinals
WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
Ohio State
5
Chargers
WR Malik Nabers
LSU
6
Giants
WR Rome Odunze
Washington
7
Titans
OL Joe Alt
Notre Dame
8
Falcons
ED Dallas Turner
Alabama
9
Bears
DT Byron Murphy II
Texas
10
Jets
TE Brock Bowers
Georgia
11
Vikings
QB J.J. McCarthy
Michigan
12
Broncos
ED Jared Verse
Florida State
13
Raiders
OL JC Latham
Alabama
14
Saints
OL Olu Fashanu
Penn State
15
Colts
CB Quinyon Mitchell
Toledo
16
Seahawks
OL Troy Fautanu
Washington
17
Jaguars
CB Terrion Arnold
Alabama
18
Bengals
DT Jer’Zhan Newton
Illinois
19
Rams
ED Laiatu Latu
UCLA
20
Steelers
OL Taliese Fuaga
Oregon State
21
Dolphins
OL Amarius Mims
Georgia
22
Eagles
OL Tyler Guyton
Oklahoma
23
Vikings
OL Graham Barton
Duke
24
Cowboys
OL Jackson Powers-Johnson
Oregon
25
Packers
CB Cooper DeJean
Iowa
26
Buccaneers
ED Chop Robinson
Penn State
27
Cardinals
CB Kool-Aid McKinstry
Alabama
28
Bills
WR Brian Thomas Jr.
LSU
29
Lions
DT Darius Robinson
Missouri
30
Ravens
OL Jordan Morgan
Arizona
31
49ers
CB Nate Wiggins
Clemson
32
Chiefs
WR Adonai Mitchell
Texas
Round 2
Pick
Team
Player
College
33
Panthers
CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr.
Missouri
34
Patriots
WR Xavier Worthy
Texas
35
Cardinals
OL Zach Frazier
West Virginia
36
Commanders
OL Kingsley Suamataia
BYU
37
Chargers
CB Mike Sainristil
Michigan
38
Titans
ED Chris Braswell
Alabama
39
Panthers
WR Troy Franklin
Oregon
40
Commanders
ED Marshawn Kneeland
Western Michigan
41
Packers
LB Edgerrin Cooper
Texas A&M
42
Texans
CB Kamari Lassiter
Georgia
43
Falcons
S Tyler Nubin
Minnesota
44
Raiders
QB Michael Penix Jr.
Washington
45
Saints
WR Xavier Legette
South Carolina
46
Colts
WR Keon Coleman
Florida State
47
Giants
S Jaden Hicks
Washington State
48
Jaguars
WR Ladd McConkey
Georgia
49
Bengals
OL Roger Rosengarten
Washington
50
Eagles
CB T.J. Tampa
Iowa State
51
Steelers
WR Ja’Lynn Polk
Washington
52
Rams
QB Bo Nix
Oregon
53
Eagles
OL Cooper Beebe
Kansas State
54
Browns
DL Michael Hall Jr.
Ohio State
55
Dolphins
ED Austin Booker
Kansas
56
Cowboys
RB Jonathon Brooks
Texas
57
Buccaneers
CB Max Melton
Rutgers
58
Packers
OL Kiran Amegadjie
Yale
59
Texans
LB Trevin Wallace
Kentucky
60
Bills
S Kamren Kinchens
Miami FL
61
Lions
CB Caelen Carson
Wake Forest
62
Ravens
OL Christian Haynes
UConn
63
49ers
OL Patrick Paul
Houston
64
Chiefs
OL Christian Mahogany
Boston College
Round 3
Pick
Team
Player
College
65
Panthers
TE Ben Sinnott
Kansas State
66
Cardinals
RB Trey Benson
Florida State
67
Commanders
CB Jarvis Brownlee Jr.
Louisville
68
Patriots
DT Kris Jenkins
Michigan
69
Chargers
OL Dominick Puni
Kansas
70
Giants
RB MarShawn Lloyd
USC
71
Cardinals
ED Adisa Isaac
Penn State
72
Jets
OL Blake Fisher
Notre Dame
73
Lions
S Javon Bullard
Georgia
74
Falcons
DT Ruke Orhorhoro
Clemson
75
Bears
ED Bralen Trice
Washington
76
Broncos
CB Kris Abrams-Draine
Missouri
77
Raiders
WR Ricky Pearsall
Florida
78
Commanders
S Cole Bishop
Utah
79
Falcons
WR Malachi Corley
Western Kentucky
80
Bengals
WR Roman Wilson
Michigan
81
Seahawks
QB Spencer Rattler
South Carolina
82
Colts
S Calen Bullock
USC
83
Rams
DT T’Vondre Sweat
Texas
84
Steelers
OL Beaux Limmer
Arkansas
85
Browns
LB Payton Wilson
NC State
86
Texans
TE Ja’Tavion Sanders
Texas
87
Cowboys
DT Braden Fiske
Florida State
88
Packers
DT Leonard Taylor III
Miami FL
89
Buccaneers
LB Junior Colson
Michigan
90
Cardinals
ED Gabriel Murphy
UCLA
91
Packers
OL Zak Zinter
Michigan
92
Buccaneers
S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson
Texas Tech
93
Ravens
WR Jalen McMillan
Washington
94
49ers
LB Cedric Gray
North Carolina
95
Chiefs
CB Andru Phillips
Kentucky
96
Jaguars
DT Brandon Dorlus
Oregon
97
Bengals
TE Theo Johnson
Penn State
98
Steelers
CB Khyree Jackson
Oregon
99
Rams
WR Devontez Walker
North Carolina
100
Commanders
WR Javon Baker
UCF
Round 4
Pick
Team
Player
College
101
Panthers
DT Maason Smith
LSU
102
Seahawks
LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr.
Clemson
103
Patriots
CB D.J. James
Auburn
104
Cardinals
LB Jaylan Ford
Texas
105
Chargers
RB Blake Corum
Michigan
106
Titans
DT Mekhi Wingo
LSU
107
Giants
CB Josh Newton
TCU
108
Vikings
ED Jonah Elliss
Utah
109
Falcons
OL Matt Goncalves
Pittsburgh
110
Chargers
DT DeWayne Carter
Duke
111
Jets
WR Johnny Wilson
Florida State
112
Raiders
OL Tanor Bortolini
Wisconsin
113
Ravens
S Malik Mustapha
Wake Forest
114
Jaguars
OL Brandon Coleman
TCU
115
Bengals
LB Edefuan Ulofoshio
Washington
116
Jaguars
ED Brennan Jackson
Washington State
117
Colts
RB Audric Estime
Notre Dame
118
Seahawks
TE Jared Wiley
TCU
119
Steelers
DT Gabe Hall
Baylor
120
Eagles
WR Jermaine Burton
Alabama
121
Broncos
QB Michael Pratt
Tulane
122
Bears
OL Travis Glover
Georgia State
123
Texans
RB Jaylen Wright
Tennessee
124
49ers
WR Brenden Rice
USC
125
Buccaneers
OL Hunter Nourzad
Penn State
126
Packers
S Tykee Smith
Georgia
127
Texans
DT Justin Eboigbe
Alabama
128
Bills
RB Braelon Allen
Wisconsin
129
Vikings
WR Malik Washington
Virginia
130
Ravens
ED Mohamed Kamara
Colorado State
131
Chiefs
RB Bucky Irving
Oregon
132
49ers
S Kitan Oladapo
Oregon State
133
Bills
CB Renardo Green
Florida State
134
Jets
S Jaylin Simpson
Auburn
135
49ers
OL Sedrick Van Pran
Georgia
Round 5
Pick
Team
Player
College
136
Broncos
ED Jalyx Hunt
Houston Christian
137
Patriots
S Dominique Hampton
Washington
138
Cardinals
OL Javion Cohen
Miami FL
139
Commanders
WR Jamari Thrash
Louisville
140
Chargers
QB Joe Milton III
Tennessee
141
Panthers
ED Xavier Thomas
Clemson
142
Panthers
CB Chau Smith-Wade
Washington State
143
Falcons
QB Austin Reed
Western Kentucky
144
Bills
ED Cedric Johnson
Ole Miss
145
Broncos
OL Walter Rouse
Oklahoma
146
Titans
LB James Williams
Miami FL
147
Broncos
LB Tommy Eichenberg
Ohio State
148
Raiders
ED Myles Cole
Texas Tech
149
Bengals
CB Jarrian Jones
Florida State
150
Saints
OL Mason McCormick
South Dakota State
151
Colts
CB Cam Hart
Notre Dame
152
Commanders
P Austin McNamara
Texas Tech
153
Jaguars
OL Javon Foster
Missouri
154
Rams
RB Will Shipley
Clemson
155
Rams
OL Delmar Glaze
Maryland
156
Browns
WR Jacob Cowing
Arizona
157
Vikings
LB Ty’Ron Hopper
Missouri
158
Dolphins
TE Tanner McLachlan
Arizona
159
Chiefs
LB Marist Liufau
Notre Dame
160
Bills
OL Layden Robinson
Texas A&M
161
Eagles
ED Javon Solomon
Troy
162
Cardinals
CB Nehemiah Pritchett
Auburn
163
Bills
DT McKinnley Jackson
Texas A&M
164
Lions
OT Christian Jones
Texas
165
Ravens
LB Jackson Sirmon
California
166
Giants
LB Tyrice Knight
UTEP
167
Vikings
S Sione Vaki
Utah
168
Saints
DT Jordan Jefferson
LSU
169
Packers
DT Khristian Boyd
Northern Iowa
170
Saints
CB Kalen King
Penn State
171
Eagles
S Josh Proctor
Ohio State
172
Eagles
CB Decamerion Richardson
Mississippi State
173
Chiefs
OL Caedan Wallace
Penn State
174
Cowboys
OL Garret Greenfield
South Dakota State
175
Saints
S Jaylen Key
Alabama
176
49ers
OL Sataoa Laumea
Utah
Round 6
Pick
Team
Player
College
177
Vikings
DT Tyler Davis
Clemson
178
Steelers
LB Curtis Jacobs
Penn State
179
Seahawks
CB Qwan’tez Stiggers
CFL
180
Patriots
OL Tylan Grable
UCF
181
Chargers
S Beau Brade
Maryland
182
Titans
WR Luke McCaffrey
Rice
183
Giants
QB Sam Hartman
Notre Dame
184
Dolphins
OL Andrew Raym
Oklahoma
185
Jets
QB Jordan Travis
Florida State
186
Cardinals
S Evan Williams
Oregon
187
Falcons
LB Aaron Casey
Indiana
188
Texans
OL Charles Turner III
LSU
189
Texans
CB Johnny Dixon
Penn State
190
Saints
TE Tip Reiman
Illinois
191
Colts
OL Jalen Sundell
North Dakota State
192
Seahawks
ED Jaylen Harrell
Michigan
193
Patriots
TE Jaheim Bell
Florida State
194
Bengals
DT Justin Rogers
Auburn
195
Steelers
OL LaDarius Henderson
Michigan
196
Rams
OL Kingsley Eguakun
Florida
197
Falcons
CB Elijah Jones
Boston College
198
Dolphins
DL Keith Randolph Jr.
Illinois
199
Saints
LB Kalen DeLoach
Florida State
200
Bills
WR Jordan Whittington
Texas
201
Lions
OL Trevor Keegan
Michigan
202
Packers
RB Ray Davis
Kentucky
203
Jets
LB Jordan Magee
Temple
204
Bills
OL Isaiah Adams
Illinois
205
Lions
WR Bub Means
Pittsburgh
206
Browns
TE Cade Stover
Ohio State
207
Broncos
RB Blake Watson
Memphis
208
Raiders
CB Dwight McGlothern
Arkansas
209
Rams
K Joshua Karty
Stanford
210
Eagles
TE Brevyn Spann-Ford
Minnesota
211
49ers
RB Isaac Guerendo
Louisville
212
Jaguars
S Evan Williams
Oregon
213
Rams
CB Marcellas Dial
South Carolina
214
Bengals
WR Joshua Cephus
UTSA
215
49ers
CB Carlton Johnson
Fresno State
216
Cowboys
LB Nathaniel Watson
Mississippi State
217
Rams
DT Marcus Harris
Auburn
218
Ravens
TE AJ Barner
Michigan
219
Packers
OL Dylan McMahon
NC State
220
Buccaneers
QB Carter Bradley
South Alabama
Round 7
Pick
Team
Player
College
221
Chiefs
OL Nick Gargiulo
South Carolina
222
Commanders
TE Dallin Holker
Colorado State
223
Raiders
S Trey Taylor
Air Force
224
Bengals
OL Giovanni Manu
British Columbia
225
Chargers
WR Cornelius Johnson
Michigan
226
Cardinals
WR Jalen Coker
Holy Cross
227
Browns
CB M.J. Devonshire
Pittsburgh
228
Ravens
RB Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Purdue
229
Raiders
WR Jha’Quan Jackson
Tulane
230
Vikings
CB Jarius Monroe
Tulane
231
Patriots
OL Donovan Jennings
USF
232
Vikings
LB Tatum Bethune
Florida State
233
Cowboys
CB Daequan Hardy
Penn State
234
Colts
ED Braiden McGregor
Michigan
235
Seahawks
DT Jowon Briggs
Cincinnati
236
Jaguars
CB Deantre Prince
Ole Miss
237
Bengals
RB Dylan Laube
New Hampshire
238
Texans
OL Nathan Thomas
Louisiana
239
Saints
S Tyler Owens
Texas Tech
240
Panthers
WR Ainias Smith
Texas A&M
241
Dolphins
CB Josh Wallace
Michigan
242
Titans
S Isaiah Johnson
Syracuse
243
Browns
OL Andrew Coker
TCU
244
Cowboys
LB JD Bertrand
Notre Dame
245
Packers
S Jaylon Carlies
Missouri
246
Buccaneers
TE Erick All
Iowa
247
Texans
S Mark Perry
TCU
248
Bills
RB Frank Gore Jr.
Southern Miss
249
Lions
ED Javontae Jean-Baptiste
Notre Dame
250
Ravens
OL Karsen Barnhart
Michigan
251
49ers
DT Logan Lee
Iowa
252
Titans
OL Matt Lee
Miami FL
253
Chargers
DT Levi Drake Rodriguez
Texas A&M-Commerce
254
Rams
S Millard Bradford
TCU
255
Packers
WR Ryan Flournoy
Southeast Missouri State
256
Broncos
CB Chigozie Anusiem
Colorado State
257
Jets
CB Micah Abraham
Marshall
Be sure to check my pre-Draft content on Twitter @ncoopdraft, the SIS Football account @football_sis, and check out all of our content on this year’s class on the NFL Draft site.
In an NFL Draft that possesses a lot of talent at the top with really good depth in a handful of positions, what are teams going to do come Draft night?
What order do the top 4 QBs go in? When does the first RB come off the board? How many OTs and CBs will we see in the first round?
Using traditional scouting and analytics in conjunction with the NFL Draft site, the Sports Info Solutions Operations department tried its hand at attempting to answer all the burning questions and more in a full 7-Round Mock Draft.
Where are your favorite players going to land?
Who is your favorite team going to select?
Those questions and more are about to be answered. Find out now!
Round 1
Pick
Team
Scout
Player
College
1
Bears
JD
QB Caleb Williams
USC
The Bears look to finally land their franchise QB with the uber-talented Caleb Williams.
2
Commanders
Ben
QB Jayden Daniels
LSU
A dynamic runner that can beat a defense from inside the pocket, Washington has a chance to find a true franchise QB in Daniels at the second pick.
3
Patriots
Stephen
QB Drake Maye
North Carolina
After recent inconsistent play at the quarterback position, the Patriots start fresh with the athletic, strong-armed, NFL ready Drake Maye.
4
Cardinals
Ben
WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
Ohio State
With size, speed, production, and pedigree, Harrison is as close to flawless as a prospect can be.
5
Chargers
Nathan
WR Malik Nabers
LSU
The Chargers lost both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this offseason, so they need to replenish the wide receiver room, and Nabers is one of the most high-upside, dynamic receivers to come out in recent years.
6
Giants
Jared
QB J.J. McCarthy
Michigan
The Giants look to the future and bring in the athleticism and leadership of McCarthy to become their new franchise quarterback.
7
Titans
Dan
OT Joe Alt
Notre Dame
The Titans need to protect their franchise QB and what better way than drafting an athletic monster at LT.
8
Falcons
Jordan
EDGE Dallas Turner
Alabama
The Falcons have been in pursuit of an elite edge rusher for years, and Turner is a high-upside player with excellent athleticism at a young age.
9
Bears
JD
EDGE Jared Verse
Florida State
The Bears land a foundational centerpiece on offense and defense with their top-2 picks as Verse feels like a perfect scheme fit forming a great 1-2 duo off the edge with recently-acquired Montez Sweat.
10
Jets
Kyle
TE Brock Bowers
Georgia
The Jets continue to go all-in on the Aaron Rodgers experiment by nabbing the best TE prospect in recent memory.
11
Vikings
Jeff
WR Rome Odunze
Washington
With the top four QBs off the board, the Vikings look to set up their future franchise QB with another game-changing weapon who can thrive in an offense full of playmakers.
12
Broncos
Nathan
EDGE Laiatu Latu
UCLA
Denver needs more help getting to the quarterback, and Latu is arguably the best pure pass rusher in this year’s class.
13
Raiders
Theo
OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu
Penn State
The run on quarterbacks and skill players in the Top 11 gives the Raiders a perfect opportunity to take the best player available while also filling a big void at right tackle.
14
Saints
Chad
OT JC Latham
Alabama
With question marks at both Tackle slots (either due to injury or performance), the Saints take the massive tackle from Alabama to bolster their offensive line.
15
Colts
Jeremy
CB Quinyon Mitchell
Toledo
The Colts’ cornerback room is amongst the worst in the league, and Mitchell is a top-tier talent who can help bring stability to Indy’s lowly secondary.
16
Seahawks
Jeff
OG Troy Fautanu
Washington
The Seahawks need some help on the interior and they grab one of the most versatile offensive linemen in the draft who could potentially play any position.
17
Jaguars
Jeremy
CB Terrion Arnold
Alabama
The Jaguars need an influx of talent in their secondary, and Terrion Arnold has the press-man skills coveted by new DC Ryan Neilsen.
18
Bengals
Michael
DT Byron Murphy II
Texas
Playing in the loaded AFC North, the Bengals add depth and disruption to their defensive line by bringing in Murphy who also brings a high-end motor to the physical division.
19
Rams
Justin
EDGE Chop Robinson
Penn State
The Rams lack depth at the edge with Robinson’s natural pass-rush ability and elite first step are a perfect fit for a defense that needs to improve its ability to get to the QB.
20
Steelers
Max
OT Taliese Fuaga
Oregon State
The Steelers go offensive tackle in back-to-back years grabbing Fuaga, who is a mauler in the run game, and will help impose the physical running style and play action pass game that Mike Tomlin and new OC Arthur Smith like to utilize
21
Dolphins
Conner
OG Graham Barton
Duke
With needs across the OL after an injury-plagued 2023, Miami looks to add a versatile OL that has true five-position flexibility.
22
Eagles
Ben
OT Tyler Guyton
Oklahoma
As Lane Johnson reaches the end of his illustrious career, the Eagles jump on another athletic Sooner that can develop under OL coach Jeff Stoutland and reach his full potential.
23
Vikings
Jeff
DT Jer’Zhan Newton
Illinois
The Vikings desperately need some pass rushing from the interior and they are able to nab one of the best in the draft with their second pick of the 1st round.
24
Cowboys
Chad
OC Jackson Powers-Johnson
Oregon
The Cowboys need to retool their offensive line, and they nail down the middle of the line with the athletic center out of Oregon.
25
Packers
Jeff
OT Amarius Mims
Georgia
The Packers have been looking for their next franchise tackle, and Mims has one of the highest upsides in the entire draft class.
26
Buccaneers
Conner
CB Nate Wiggins
Clemson
After trading Carlton Davis, Tampa looks to add another weapon to the secondary with the selection of Wiggins.
27
Cardinals
Ben
CB Kool-Aid McKinstry
Alabama
McKinstry is a ready-made NFL corner that proved his speed through the draft process and while some will be skeptical of his injury issues, he projects to make an immediate impact when on the field.
28
Bills
Evan
WR Brian Thomas Jr.
LSU
The Bills will look to restock their WR room after offseason departures and it begins with Thomas Jr., who will bring a vertical threat with his good size and speed to Josh Allen’s attack.
29
Lions
Nathan
DT Darius Robinson
Missouri
Robinson brings the grit and personality the Detroit staff is looking for, along with the versatility to line up all over the line, rush the passer, and stop the run.
30
Ravens
Segev
CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr.
Missouri
The Ravens lost a lot of talent and depth in free agency and start replenishing that by taking a corner who can really cover and could start immediately.
31
49ers
Jordan
OT Kingsley Suamataia
BYU
The 49ers still have Trent Williams at LT, but adding Kingsley provides an eventual succession plan while allowing him to develop behind one of the league’s best players.
32
Chiefs
Nathan
WR Xavier Worthy
Texas
Given the question marks Rashee Rice raised this offseason, Worthy combines elite speed and receiver skills to give Mahomes and the Chiefs another big-time weapon.
Round 2
Pick
Team
Scout
Player
College
33
Panthers
Jordan
CB Cooper DeJean
Iowa
34
Patriots
Stephen
WR Adonai Mitchell
Texas
35
Cardinals
Ben
EDGE Chris Braswell
Alabama
36
Commanders
Ben
OG Dominick Puni
Kansas
37
Chargers
Nathan
OT Patrick Paul
Houston
38
Titans
Dan
EDGE Bralen Trice
Washington
39
Panthers
Jordan
WR Xavier Legette
South Carolina
40
Commanders
Ben
EDGE Adisa Isaac
Penn State
41
Packers
Jeff
LB Payton Wilson
NC State
42
Texans
Ryan
CB Kamari Lassiter
Georgia
43
Falcons
Jordan
QB Michael Penix Jr.
Washington
44
Raiders
Theo
NT T’Vondre Sweat
Texas
45
Saints
Chad
DT Braden Fiske
Florida State
46
Colts
Jeremy
WR Keon Coleman
Florida State
47
Giants
Jared
WR Ladd McConkey
Georgia
48
Jaguars
Jeremy
WR Ja’Lynn Polk
Washington
49
Bengals
Michael
WR Troy Franklin
Oregon
50
Eagles
Ben
CB Jarvis Brownlee Jr.
Louisville
51
Steelers
Max
OC Zach Frazier
West Virginia
52
Rams
Justin
DT Mekhi Wingo
LSU
53
Eagles
Ben
TE Theo Johnson
Penn State
54
Browns
Michael
OT Kiran Amegadjie
Yale
55
Dolphins
Conner
DT Maason Smith
LSU
56
Cowboys
Chad
RB Jonathon Brooks
Texas
57
Buccaneers
Conner
OG Christian Haynes
UConn
58
Packers
Jeff
CB Mike Sainristil
Michigan
59
Texans
Ryan
S Tyler Nubin
Minnesota
60
Bills
Evan
EDGE Austin Booker
Kansas
61
Lions
Nathan
OC Beaux Limmer
Arkansas
62
Ravens
Segev
OT Jordan Morgan
Arizona
63
49ers
Jordan
CB Max Melton
Rutgers
64
Chiefs
Nathan
CB T.J. Tampa
Iowa State
Round 3
Pick
Team
Scout
Player
College
65
Panthers
Jordan
RB Trey Benson
Florida State
66
Cardinals
Ben
NT McKinnley Jackson
Texas A&M
67
Commanders
Ben
S Kamren Kinchens
Miami FL
68
Patriots
Stephen
OT Walter Rouse
Oklahoma
69
Chargers
Nathan
RB Blake Corum
Michigan
70
Giants
Jared
CB Andru Phillips
Kentucky
71
Cardinals
Ben
WR Devontez Walker
North Carolina
72
Jets
Kyle
OT Blake Fisher
Notre Dame
73
Lions
Nathan
S Jaden Hicks
Washington State
74
Falcons
Jordan
CB Kris Abrams-Draine
Missouri
75
Bears
JD
DT Kris Jenkins
Michigan
76
Broncos
Nathan
QB Bo Nix
Oregon
77
Raiders
Theo
QB Spencer Rattler
South Carolina
78
Commanders
Ben
CB Khyree Jackson
Oregon
79
Falcons
Jordan
LB Junior Colson
Michigan
80
Bengals
Michael
OG Cooper Beebe
Kansas State
81
Seahawks
Jeff
LB Edgerrin Cooper
Texas A&M
82
Colts
Jeremy
S Cole Bishop
Utah
83
Rams
Justin
OG Christian Mahogany
Boston College
84
Steelers
Max
DT Ruke Orhorhoro
Clemson
85
Browns
Michael
DT Brandon Dorlus
Oregon
86
Texans
Ryan
OT Roger Rosengarten
Washington
87
Cowboys
Chad
WR Ricky Pearsall
Florida
88
Packers
Jeff
OG Zak Zinter
Michigan
89
Buccaneers
Conner
WR Malachi Corley
Western Kentucky
90
Cardinals
Ben
DT Leonard Taylor III
Miami FL
91
Packers
Jeff
OC Sedrick Van Pran
Georgia
92
Buccaneers
Conner
LB Trevin Wallace
Kentucky
93
Ravens
Segev
EDGE Jonah Elliss
Utah
94
49ers
Jordan
EDGE Marshawn Kneeland
Western Michigan
95
Chiefs
Nathan
OT Matt Goncalves
Pittsburgh
96
Jaguars
Jeremy
S Javon Bullard
Georgia
97
Bengals
Michael
OT Javon Foster
Missouri
98
Steelers
Max
WR Brenden Rice
USC
99
Rams
Justin
EDGE Gabriel Murphy
UCLA
100
Commanders
Ben
TE Ja’Tavion Sanders
Texas
Round 4
Pick
Team
Scout
Player
College
101
Panthers
Jordan
LB Cedric Gray
North Carolina
102
Seahawks
Jeff
TE Jared Wiley
TCU
103
Patriots
Stephen
TE Cade Stover
Ohio State
104
Cardinals
Ben
OC Hunter Nourzad
Penn State
105
Chargers
Nathan
TE Ben Sinnott
Kansas State
106
Titans
Dan
WR Roman Wilson
Michigan
107
Giants
Jared
RB Audric Estime
Notre Dame
108
Vikings
Jeff
QB Joe Milton III
Tennessee
109
Falcons
Jordan
S Calen Bullock
USC
110
Chargers
Nathan
CB D.J. James
Auburn
111
Jets
Kyle
S Kitan Oladapo
Oregon State
112
Raiders
Theo
EDGE Xavier Thomas
Clemson
113
Ravens
Segev
WR Jalen McMillan
Washington
114
Jaguars
Jeremy
EDGE Mohamed Kamara
Colorado State
115
Bengals
Michael
CB Caelen Carson
Wake Forest
116
Jaguars
Jeremy
OT Travis Glover
Georgia State
117
Colts
Jeremy
LB Edefuan Ulofoshio
Washington
118
Seahawks
Jeff
DT Michael Hall Jr.
Ohio State
119
Steelers
Max
S Tykee Smith
Georgia
120
Eagles
Ben
LB Jaylan Ford
Texas
121
Broncos
Nathan
LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr.
Clemson
122
Bears
JD
WR Javon Baker
UCF
123
Texans
Ryan
DT Justin Eboigbe
Alabama
124
49ers
Jordan
OT Caedan Wallace
Penn State
125
Buccaneers
Conner
RB Marshawn Lloyd
USC
126
Packers
Jeff
WR Jacob Cowing
Arizona
127
Texans
Ryan
CB Chau Smith-Wade
Washington State
128
Bills
Evan
S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson
Texas Tech
129
Vikings
Jeff
CB Josh Newton
TCU
130
Ravens
Segev
OG Jalen Sundell
North Dakota State
131
Chiefs
Nathan
OC Tanor Bortolini
Wisconsin
132
49ers
Jordan
S Malik Mustapha
Wake Forest
133
Bills
Evan
RB Bucky Irving
Oregon
134
Jets
Kyle
DT DeWayne Carter
Duke
135
49ers
Jordan
RB Braelon Allen
Wisconsin
Round 5
Pick
Team
Scout
Player
College
136
Broncos
Nathan
DT Tyler Davis
Clemson
137
Patriots
Stephen
LB Tommy Eichenberg
Ohio State
138
Cardinals
Ben
CB Kalen King
Penn State
139
Commanders
Ben
OT Delmar Glaze
Maryland
140
Chargers
Nathan
OG Brandon Coleman
TCU
141
Panthers
Jordan
TE Dallin Holker
Colorado State
142
Panthers
Jordan
EDGE Cedric Johnson
Ole Miss
143
Falcons
Jordan
TE Tip Reiman
Illinois
144
Bills
Evan
CB Renardo Green
Florida State
145
Broncos
Nathan
OT Tylan Grable
UCF
146
Titans
Dan
LB James Williams
Miami FL
147
Broncos
Nathan
CB Cam Hart
Notre Dame
148
Raiders
Theo
LB Jackson Sirmon
California
149
Bengals
Michael
TE Tanner McLachlan
Arizona
150
Saints
Chad
EDGE Brennan Jackson
Washington State
151
Colts
Jeremy
OG Mason McCormick
South Dakota State
152
Commanders
Ben
DT Gabe Hall
Baylor
153
Jaguars
Jeremy
LB Curtis Jacobs
Penn State
154
Rams
Justin
S Jaylin Simpson
Auburn
155
Rams
Justin
CB Johnny Dixon
Penn State
156
Browns
Michael
WR Malik Washington
Virginia
157
Vikings
Jeff
RB Will Shipley
Clemson
158
Dolphins
Conner
WR Luke McCaffrey
Rice
159
Chiefs
Nathan
LB Ty’Ron Hopper
Missouri
160
Bills
Evan
OG Donovan Jennings
USF
161
Eagles
Ben
EDGE Javon Solomon
Troy
162
Cardinals
Ben
CB Myles Harden
South Dakota
163
Bills
Evan
OC Andrew Raym
Oklahoma
164
Lions
Nathan
CB Nehemiah Pritchett
Auburn
165
Ravens
Segev
RB Ray Davis
Kentucky
166
Giants
Jared
OG Javion Cohen
Miami FL
167
Vikings
Jeff
OG Layden Robinson
Texas A&M
168
Saints
Chad
WR Jamari Thrash
Louisville
169
Packers
Jeff
EDGE Richard Jibunor
Troy
170
Saints
Chad
TE Jaheim Bell
Florida State
171
Eagles
Ben
WR Johnny Wilson
Florida State
172
Eagles
Ben
CB Jarrian Jones
Florida State
173
Chiefs
Nathan
RB Jaylen Wright
Tennessee
174
Cowboys
Chad
OT Christian Jones
Texas
175
Saints
Chad
CB M.J. Devonshire
Pittsburgh
176
49ers
Jordan
TE Erick All
Iowa
Round 6
Pick
Team
Scout
Player
College
177
Vikings
Jeff
OT Garret Greenfield
South Dakota State
178
Steelers
Max
CB Elijah Jones
Boston College
179
Seahawks
Jeff
K Joshua Karty
Stanford
180
Patriots
Stephen
EDGE Trajan Jeffcoat
Arkansas
181
Chargers
Nathan
NT Jordan Jefferson
LSU
182
Titans
Dan
S Evan Williams
Oregon
183
Giants
Jared
DT Keith Randolph Jr.
Illinois
184
Dolphins
Conner
OC Kingsley Eguakun
Florida
185
Jets
Kyle
QB Michael Pratt
Tulane
186
Cardinals
Ben
S Sione Vaki
Utah
187
Falcons
Jordan
WR Jermaine Burton
Alabama
188
Texans
Ryan
OG LaDarius Henderson
Michigan
189
Texans
Ryan
LB Jordan Magee
Temple
190
Saints
Chad
S Beau Brade
Maryland
191
Colts
Jeremy
EDGE Myles Cole
Texas Tech
192
Seahawks
Jeff
QB Austin Reed
Western Kentucky
193
Patriots
Stephen
WR Joshua Cephus
UTSA
194
Bengals
Michael
DT Marcus Harris
Auburn
195
Steelers
Max
QB Jordan Travis
Florida State
196
Rams
Justin
DT Logan Lee
Iowa
197
Falcons
Jordan
CB Decamerion Richardson
Mississippi State
198
Dolphins
Conner
CB Chigozie Anusiem
Colorado State
199
Saints
Chad
P Tory Taylor
Iowa
200
Bills
Evan
LB Tatum Bethune
Florida State
201
Lions
Nathan
EDGE Jaylen Harrell
Michigan
202
Packers
Jeff
RB Dylan Laube
New Hampshire
203
Jets
Kyle
WR Ainias Smith
Texas A&M
204
Bills
Evan
DT Jowon Briggs
Cincinnati
205
Lions
Nathan
WR Jordan Whittington
Texas
206
Browns
Michael
LB Marist Liufau
Notre Dame
207
Broncos
Nathan
OC Charles Turner III
LSU
208
Raiders
Theo
CB Carlton Johnson
Fresno State
209
Rams
Justin
TE Brevyn Spann-Ford
Minnesota
210
Eagles
Ben
WR Jalen Coker
Holy Cross
211
49ers
Jordan
WR Bub Means
Pittsburgh
212
Jaguars
Jeremy
CB Marcellas Dial
South Carolina
213
Rams
Justin
OT Ethan Driskell
Marshall
214
Bengals
Michael
WR Lideatrick Griffin
Mississippi State
215
49ers
Jordan
OG Isaiah Adams
Illinois
216
Cowboys
Chad
EDGE Jalyx Hunt
Houston Christian
217
Rams
Justin
QB Kedon Slovis
BYU
218
Ravens
Segev
S Jaylen Key
Alabama
219
Packers
Jeff
NT Justin Rogers
Auburn
220
Buccaneers
Conner
OC Matt Lee
Miami FL
Round 7
Pick
Team
Scout
Player
College
221
Chiefs
Nathan
OG Nick Gargiulo
South Carolina
222
Commanders
Ben
NT Khristian Boyd
Northern Iowa
223
Raiders
Theo
WR Cornelius Johnson
Michigan
224
Bengals
Michael
QB Devin Leary
Kentucky
225
Chargers
Nathan
WR Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint
Georgia
226
Cardinals
Ben
LB Aaron Casey
Indiana
227
Browns
Michael
S Josh Proctor
Ohio State
228
Ravens
Segev
TE AJ Barner
Michigan
229
Raiders
Theo
OG Sataoa Laumea
Utah
230
Vikings
Jeff
OG Kyle Hergel
Boston College
231
Patriots
Stephen
RB Dillon Johnson
Washington
232
Vikings
Jeff
WR Tahj Washington
USC
233
Cowboys
Chad
LB Tyrice Knight
UTEP
234
Colts
Jeremy
S Trey Taylor
Air Force
235
Seahawks
Jeff
RB Blake Watson
Memphis
236
Jaguars
Jeremy
EDGE Braiden McGregor
Michigan
237
Bengals
Michael
P Ryan Rehkow
BYU
238
Texans
Ryan
TE Mason Fairchild
Kansas
239
Saints
Chad
RB Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Purdue
240
Panthers
Jordan
CB Deantre Prince
Ole Miss
241
Dolphins
Conner
EDGE Javontae Jean-Baptiste
Notre Dame
242
Titans
Dan
OL Trevor Keegan
Michigan
243
Browns
Michael
RB Cody Schrader
Missouri
244
Cowboys
Chad
S Dominique Hampton
Washington
245
Packers
Jeff
CB Dwight McGlothern
Arkansas
246
Buccaneers
Conner
WR Jha’Quan Jackson
Tulane
247
Texans
Ryan
WR Ryan Flournoy
Southeast Missouri State
248
Bills
Evan
CB Josh Wallace
Michigan
249
Lions
Nathan
OT Giovanni Manu
British Columbia (Canada)
250
Ravens
Segev
LB Nathaniel Watson
Mississippi State
251
49ers
Jordan
LB Tarique Barnes
Illinois
252
Titans
Dan
CB Daequan Hardy
Penn State
253
Chargers
Nathan
S Tyler Owens
Texas Tech
254
Rams
Justin
K Harrison Mevis
Missouri
255
Packers
Jeff
TE Jack Westover
Washington
256
Broncos
Nathan
RB Isaac Guerendo
Louisville
257
Jets
Kyle
LB Steele Chambers
Ohio State
The members of the SIS Operations staff who took part in this Mock Draft are: Nathan Cooper, Jordan Edwards, Jeff Dean, Ben Hrkach, Chad Tedder, Jeremy Percy, Conner Hrabal, Theo Fornaciari, Max Nuscher, Michael Morgan, Ryan Rubinstein, Jared Maslin, JD Allen, Kyle Shatto, Dan Foehrenbach, Segev Goldberg, Stephen Marciello, Evan Butler, and Justin Stine.
Offensive tackles, cornerbacks, and wide receivers dominate our Top 100 this year, while the expected No. 1 overall pick is the No. 2 player on our board.
There are 16 cornerbacks who appear in our Top 100, led by Kool-Aid McKinstry from Alabama and Nate Wiggins from Clemson.
Along with CB, this year’s wide receiver class is heavy as well. Marvin Harrison Jr. leads the way as our top-ranked player over and 1 of 15 at the position in our Top 100.
Offensive tackle will be plentiful the first two days of the draft, as we have 12 who are ranked in our Top 100, including Joe Alt (No. 3), JC Latham (No. 6), and Olu Fashanu (No. 9), who are in the Top 10.
Caleb Williams, the frontrunner for the No. 1 overall pick, is our No. 2 ranked player overall. At quarterback, Drake Maye comes in at No. 7 overall and Jayden Daniels comes in at No. 24.
Additionally, AJ Simon of Albany tragically passed away last week. We wanted to give him a mention, as he would’ve been our No. 278 overall player and 28th ranked EDGE.
Everyone has heard the term “NFL-Ready” prospect. These are players who are deemed to have the skills, talent, and football IQ to make an immediate impact when their time comes to take the field. This opportunity usually comes sooner rather than later for these types of players, but some situations arise where they still have to wait their turn (looking at you, Patrick).
In trying to quantify this immediate production, we looked at a player’s draft position to see if there were any significant differences in their Total Points production in their first handful of games. Are these immediate impact players all taken early, or are there more to be found in later rounds? We try to answer this question here with our company’s favorite stat, Total Points.
Methodology
Going back to the 2016 NFL Draft, we looked at players who have played in at least 4 games and played at least 40 snaps in their first 4 games. We then took the average Total Points value of those first 4 games for each relevant category (e.g. Receiving Total Points for WR). After accumulating the player averages, we then took the overall average at each position based on if that player was selected in the first round or not and if a player was taken in the early rounds (1, 2, or 3) or the late rounds (4, 5, 6, 7, or undrafted).
Once the averages were taken, we used a Standard T-Test, Welch T-Test, or a Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test to compare the averages and test whether or not first round or early round players have a higher average compared to their counterparts. The test used was decided based on whether or not the data subsets were normal based on a Shapiro-Wilk test. If the data subset was normal, we used a version of a T-Test. If not, we used the Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test. The type of T-Test was determined by whether or not the two data subsets shared the same variance (Standard or Welch).
In each case, we are testing the null hypothesis that the Total Points means between each group are equal to each other. If the test yields a p-value less than 0.01, our alpha level, then we reject that the null hypothesis is true. In the tables below, you will find whether or not the test was found to be significant (p-value less than 0.01) and the average Total Points per game value of each group that was compared.
This is not a test of the complete performance of a player’s career, but rather the chance of having an immediate impact once they get their opportunity.
Enough stat talk, let’s dive into some of the results!
Quarterbacks
Total Points Category
Draft Groups
Significant?
First/
Early Round
Mean
Other/
Late Round Mean
Passer Points
First Round/
Not First Round
No
2.50
1.16
Passer Points
Early Round/
Late Round
No
2.11
1.20
Analyzing Passer Total Points among quarterbacks, we see that we cannot reject the null hypothesis that the means of a quarterback’s first 4 games are the same regardless of how we split players up. Even though the means look different, we cannot statistically infer that the compared populations have different average production.
Consider this when a quarterback makes his first start. Regardless of the round selected, quarterbacks have produced right away from all rounds within the draft. The Top 3 quarterback Passer Total Points averages come from Patrick Mahomes (1st Round, 10.2), Dak Prescott (4th Round, 9.5), and Cody Kessler (3rd Round, 7.9). Immediate production from the signal caller can be found at any point throughout the draft.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Position
Total Points Category
Draft Groups
Significant?
First/
Early Round Mean
Other/
Late Round Mean
WR
Receiver Points
First Round/
Not First Round
Yes
0.92
0.16
WR
Receiver Points
Early Round/
Late Round
Yes
0.51
0.08
TE
Run Block Points
First Round/
Not First Round
No
0.34
0.25
TE
Run Block Points
Early Round/
Late Round
No
0.26
0.25
TE
Receiver Points
First Round/
Not First Round
Yes
0.53
0.09
TE
Receiver Points
Early Round/
Late Round
Yes
0.30
0.03
For both wide receivers and tight ends, Receiving Total Points shows a significant difference in both tests favoring the first/early rounds.
Among receivers, Terry McLaurin (1st Round, 4.30), Will Fuller V (1st Round, 2.69), Justin Jefferson (1st Round, 2.40), Marquise Brown (1st Round, 2.16), and Ja’Marr Chase (1st Round, 2.06) all come in the Top 5 for Receiving Total Points. No shortage of top end talent and pedigree for sure.
The Top 3 tight ends in Greg Dulcich (3rd Round, 1.38), Gerald Everett (2nd Round, 1.31), and Kyle Pitts (1st Round, 1.28) all came in the early rounds as well. Run Blocking Total Points from a tight end perspective are not statistically different from one another depending on when they were selected.
Defense
When comparing the first to the other rounds, every defensive position and relevant Total Points Category is statistically significantly better. This suggests that defensive talent that is taken in the first round has a higher impact when it takes the field in its first 4 games than a player that is taken later. When comparing the early and late rounds, there were several other positions with Total Points categories that were significant, but the more consistent effect was found in the first and other round comparisons.
Furthermore, below is a table of the players with the highest impact of each position at the most relevant Total Points Category. All of these players come from either the first or second round.
Position
Player
Total Points Category
Total Points Value
Round Drafted
DT
Derrick Brown
Run Defense
1.44
1st
DE
Nick Bosa
Pass Rush
3.07
1st
LB
Devin Bush
Run Defense
1.67
1st
DB
Asante Samuel Jr.
Pass Coverage
6.11
2nd
Other Positions
The two positions not covered above, running backs and offensive linemen, yielded different results. There was no Total Points category that showed a significant difference for running backs when considering Rushing and Receiving Total Points. On the other hand, both Pass Block and Run Block Total Points showed significant differences in both group types for offensive linemen.
Conclusion
The TLDR summary of this study would be: The idea that early draft picks outperform late picks in the receiving game from the jump is interesting, particularly because that hasn’t been the case for passing or rushing.
All in all, only quarterbacks, running backs, and run blocking tight ends did not show significantly different averages between players selected in the first/early rounds when compared to the other/late rounds. Again, these results suggest performance differences for players playing in their first 4 games. These results do not conclude anything about long-term performance. To put it in fantasy terms, think picking up a receiver on the waiver wire for one week vs. picking a receiver in a rookie draft for a dynasty league.
Getting early production can come from a lot of different places in the draft. Finding that production is very position dependent, but can also vary among different situations. Consider these findings when building expectations for the new players on your favorite team in what they might be able to accomplish early on in their careers.
While many crave all the NFL Draft Team Grades that publications put out the day after the draft, including us on both accounts, there are a lot of unknowns at that point. Of course, we all have our own NFL Draft prospect rankings heading into that weekend, but those players have yet to play a single snap in the NFL. So, how can we really grade a team’s draft class if those players haven’t yet stepped onto an NFL field?
It usually takes at least three years to see how well a draft class turned out. While said publications, including us, don’t want to wait three years before putting out their grades on a draft class, we do both.
Three years ago, Sports Info Solutions published the 2nd edition of The SIS Football Rookie Handbook. After the 2020 NFL Draft, we, just as many others, posted our NFL Draft Team Grades, which can be seen here.
Just as I did here last year, I’ve developed a system to evaluate the draft classes using Total Points relative to position as the foundation. Three seasons have now gone by since the 2020 NFL Draft. So, let’s use that to truly see how each team did with getting value from its selections.
How much value did teams get?
Let’s take a look at how we ranked teams after the 2020 NFL Draft and then who got the most and least value. See the Appendix below to see how all 32 teams ranked in our 2020 rankings and in TP Score.
Here are the teams we ranked at the top immediately following the draft back in 2020. To see our scouting grading scale, check out our NFL Draft site.
Top 5 Teams in 2020 Post-Draft Rankings
Team
Book Rank
Grade
Browns
1
6.50
Bengals
2
6.49
Cardinals
3
6.45
Cowboys
4
6.44
Bills
5
6.43
TP Score will be defined below, but here are the top 5 teams based on how much value they received from their draft class.
Top 5 Teams in TP Score
Team
TP Rank
TP Score
Chargers
1
105.56
Bengals
2
104.84
Chiefs
3
68.61
Bears
4
63.67
Panthers
5
58.59
In our post-draft rankings in 2020, we tabbed the Browns as the No. 1 draft class. While they did end up having a strong group, they just missed the top 5, landing at No. 6.
The No. 1 team in TP Score was the Chargers. When looking at them and the Bengals, it’s easy to see they both grabbed top-tier quarterbacks who have put up huge numbers over the last three seasons, which is extremely valuable.
Justin Herbert put up 432 Total Points himself, which ranked 3rd in the NFL, trailing only Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Joe Burrow added 292 Total Points, helping to give the Bengals a No. 2 ranking, a ranking we gave them back in 2020.
The Chiefs, Bears, and Panthers also got major contributions from their draft classes. Kansas City got 132 Total Points from fourth-round pick L’Jarius Sneed, Chicago got a combined 150 from their first two picks, Cole Kmet and Jaylon Johnson, and Carolina got 160 combined from Derrick Brown and Jeremy Chinn.
Conversely, here are the bottom 5 teams from our 2020 rankings.
Bottom 5 Teams in 2020 Post-Draft Rankings
Team
Book Rank
Grade
Bears
28
6.07
Texans
29
6.06
Giants
30
6.04
Steelers
31
6.02
Packers
32
5.97
Based on TP Score, here are the worst teams in terms of getting value from their 2020 draft picks.
Bottom 5 Teams in TP Score
Team
TP Rank
TP Score
Rams
28
20.54
Titans
29
19.83
Texans
30
18.24
Raiders
31
15.35
Jets
32
14.94
Clearly, we missed on the Bears. Not including Trevis Gipson or Darnell Mooney in the Handbook was a big miss on our part. However, the Texans got very minimal value from their draft, as we expected back in 2020.
Determining Total Points Score
In case you missed last year’s article, let’s explain the process of creating each team’s TP Score. When looking back to see how good or bad a specific draft class was, there are two main points to consider:
How productive were the draft picks on the field?
2. How much talent did the team draft relative to the amount of picks they made?
As in: Did they hit on one player or did they hit on multiple players?
To determine the value of the draft classes, I used Total Points, our flagship player value stat, from across the last three seasons. However, for those of you who are familiar with Total Points, it gives a lot of extra weight to quarterbacks. With that said, Justin Herbert alone would have had the 4th-best draft class with his 432 Total Points if we just used raw Total Points.
While there is a reason we weigh quarterbacks so much more compared to other positions (they are pretty important), using that raw number in this sense isn’t going to make for a perfect match. It just so happens that Herbert has accumulated so much value, along with a few of his fellow draftees, that it did give the Chargers our No. 1 spot.
Now, answering the second question takes into account how well a team drafted throughout the entirety of the draft class. I found the average Total Points per player from the 2020 class at each position, including UDFAs who have taken at least one offensive or defensive snap, since they were also available to be selected.
The positional averages are shown in the table below.
Pos
TP per Player
QB
90.9
RB
5.2
WR
15.0
TE
7.9
OL
27.9
DE
13.5
DT
13.5
LB
15.4
CB
26.2
S
25.1
The TP Score, as referenced earlier, is what’s used to rank the teams. It is calculated as follows:
Add up the Total Points from the entire team’s draft class
Divide that number by the number of selections the team had
Multiply that number by the percentage of draft picks that were above the average Total Points for their given position
Add that to the original Total Points per draft pick
In these 4 steps, we are essentially answering how productive the draft class was and how many picks were “hits”. Let’s run through an example using the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Here is their draft class:
Pos
Player
Total Points
WR
Chase Claypool
58
LB
Alex Highsmith
94
RB
Anthony McFarland Jr.
-7
OL
Kevin Dotson
65
S
Antoine Brooks
2
DT
Carlos Davis
0
Add up the Total Points from the entire team’s draft class — 212
2. Divide that number by the number of selections the team had
212 Total Points divided by 6 selections equals 35.33
3. Multiply that number by the percentage of draft picks that were above the average Total Points for their given position.
Claypool, Highsmith, and Dotson all accumulated a Total Points number that was above average compared to their position groups
35.33 times 50% (3 out of 6) equals 17.67
4. Add that to the original Total Points per draft pick
35.33 plus 17.67 equals 53.00, which is their TP Score
So, to summarize, we took the team’s Total Points gained from these players, dispersed it throughout the entire class and then gave a bump based on how many above-average players they drafted.
Now that we know how the teams ranked and how the TP Score is calculated, let’s dive into some of the details.
Other Key Takeaways
– Two teams drafted “hits” on at least 75% of their players: the Seahawks and 49ers. Seattle hit on their first 6 picks (6 of 8 total), including Jordyn Brooks, Damien Lewis, and Alton Robinson.
Interestingly enough, Brooks’ 80 Total Points ranked 2nd-most among all LBs in the class, but Seattle did not pick up his 5th-year option. The 49ers hit on 4 of their 5 picks, including getting 78 Total Points from Brandon Aiyuk.
– The Ravens had the most hits with 7, and they actually just missed out on hitting with two of their other picks as well. While they did hit on the majority of their draft class, they only ranked 13th in TP Score, meaning they should’ve accumulated more Total Points given they made 10 selections.
– Every team drafted at least one player who had played above the positional average compared to the rest of the draft class. However, the Jets (Mekhi Becton), Raiders (Henry Ruggs III), Eagles (Jalen Reagor), Packers (Jordan Love), Titans (Isaiah Wilson), Texans (Ross Blacklock), and Rams (Cam Akers) were the only teams whose first draft selection wasn’t an above-average player. We’ll find out a lot more about Jordan Love in 2023 now that Aaron Rodgers has moved on to New York.
– The four teams with the most raw Total Points are the Chargers (475), Bengals (467), Vikings (441), and Dolphins (422). Those teams being at the top makes sense, given that three of them got a high-quality quarterback and the other, Minnesota, got Justin Jefferson as one of its 15 selections.
– The Texans (76) and Raiders (94) accumulated the fewest Total Points from their draft classes over the past three seasons. The Texans make some sense, considering they only had five selections, but Ross Blacklock, their first pick of the draft, proved to be a big miss.
Additionally, the Raiders made seven selections and only had one hit (John Simpson in the 4th round with 51 Total Points). Their other six selections, including two first-round picks, combined for only 43 Total Points.
– Out of the 11 eligible defensive players who could get their 5th-year option picked up, only two did: Derrick Brown and A.J. Terrell. Conversely, 10 of 15 offensive players got theirs exercised. Of the 14 players who didn’t get their option picked up, 11 of them still performed at an above-average level. The only three who haven’t are Mekhi Becton (Jets), Jalen Reagor (Eagles/Vikings), and Noah Igbinoghene (Dolphins).
How do our Initial Grades Compare?
56% (18/32) of our initial ranks were in the correct half, just like last year. Meaning a team we ranked between 1 and 16 or 17 and 32 was ultimately in that tier.
The biggest differences in our initial grades and these final rankings were the Seahawks (25 spots), Chiefs (24 spots), and the Bears (24 spots). The three teams with the biggest differences last year were initially rated near the top before ultimately ending up near the bottom. This year, it was the opposite. These three teams performed much better than our initial rankings.
We mentioned Seattle before. Hitting on 6 of 8 picks is a great draft, especially considering one of them ranked second among their position in Total Points (Jordyn Brooks).
Let’s be blunt about it: we missed big on not including L’Jarius Sneed in the Handbook. I don’t think many people expected him to play the way he has (132 Total Points, No. 1 CB), but that turned out to be a big omission. Also leaving out Mike Danna and being a little lower on Willie Gay helped to prove why we missed so badly with Kansas City’s draft class.
Jaylon Johnson and Cole Kmet lived up to our expectations in Chicago, but excluding Darnell Mooney and Trevis Gipson, and their 79 combined Total Points from the book, assisted in us missing on their post-draft ranking.
What were some of our biggest misses elsewhere? Not including Alex Highsmith, Kamren Curl, and Michael Onwenu, who all topped their position groups in Total Points, ended up being big misses along with Sneed. We missed on the tight end class, as three of our top five went undrafted and ended up with only 2 Total Points to date. Unfortunately, there was no Top-Five-to-Undrafted darling (i.e. Nik Needham) this year.
Let’s take a look at some of our biggest wins. The first player drafted in 2020 who wasn’t in the Handbook was Matt Peart (Round 3, No. 99) by the Giants. He has gained only 13 Total Points across 37 games so far. The first player drafted who we didn’t get a formal look at was Cameron Clark (Round 4, No. 129) by the Jets. He wasn’t on our board and never saw a single snap in the NFL, though some of that had to do with severe injuries that forced him to retire.
We tabbed Isaiah Wilson, who ended up going in the 1st round and playing in only one game, as one of the lowest graded players of the class. We didn’t include Joshua Kelley, fourth-round pick by the Chargers, and he’s managed to lose 19 Total Points during his time in the NFL. Additionally, Dalton Keene was our last-rated TE (No. 21), but was taken in the 3rd round by New England. His -5 Total Points is the worst among TEs in the class.
The table below shows the top Total Points earners across the past three seasons and how we graded and ranked them in the Handbook.
Rank
Position
Player
Total Points
SIS Grade
SIS Pos Rank
1
QB
Justin Herbert
432
6.7
3
2
QB
Joe Burrow
292
6.9
1
3
QB
Jalen Hurts
216
6.2
8
4
QB
Tua Tagovailoa
174
6.9
2
5
WR
Justin Jefferson
133
6.9
3
6
CB
L’Jarius Sneed
132
NA
NA
7
OT
Tristan Wirfs
115
6.8
3
8
S
Antoine Winfield Jr.
105
6.8
2
We hit on our top 3 QBs, but were a little lower on Hurts. As mentioned before, omitting Sneed from the Handbook was a big miss for us. However, Jefferson, Wirfs, and Winfield have all played extremely well, as we tabbed each of them as high-end three-down starters.
Conclusion
Nobody really knows how a draft class is going to turn out immediately after the draft, yet it still makes sense to grade and rank the teams based on player grades for an initial reaction.
Post-draft grades are great in a sense, but they should be taken with a grain of salt. Once three years go by and we’ve seen what these players have done in the NFL, we can get a better sense of how good the team drafted.
These rankings are all about finding which teams drafted the best draft class as a whole, not just who got the best player. While there are some players who didn’t play for the team that drafted them for the entirety of the past three seasons, that wasn’t taken into account since those decisions came after the initial drafting of these players, which is what this is based on.
A big example of that from this class is Casey Toohill, who was drafted by Philadelphia and has 20 Total Points, but played only one game for them before playing 40 across the last three seasons in Washington.
It’s not a perfect science, but it does a good job at pulling player value and seeing how well teams drafted as a whole class relative to the amount of selections they were afforded.
Three years later, the comparison between our initial rankings and these rankings aren’t terrible for Year 2 (in both our grading and our scouting process). We made some improvements from Year 1 to Year 2, like adding 30 more players to the Handbook and featuring 25 (9%) more who were drafted. Though, we hope this article next year takes a large positive swing as we went into Year 3 in the 2021 draft cycle. As with everything we do here, we hope this improves year over year and can look back and say we kept getting better every day.
Appendix
2020 SIS Post-Draft Rankings based on the SIS Football Rookie Handbook
Team
Book Rank
Grade
Browns
1
6.50
Bengals
2
6.49
Cardinals
3
6.45
Cowboys
4
6.44
Bills
5
6.43
Saints
6
6.40
Rams
7
6.38
Raiders
8
6.38
Dolphins
9
6.35
Ravens
10
6.31
Lions
11
6.31
Panthers
12
6.27
Commanders
13
6.26
Jets
14
6.26
Buccaneers
15
6.26
Eagles
16
6.23
Falcons
17
6.22
49ers
18
6.20
Jaguars
19
6.17
Broncos
20
6.17
Chargers
21
6.17
Seahawks
22
6.15
Vikings
23
6.13
Titans
24
6.13
Patriots
25
6.08
Colts
26
6.08
Chiefs
27
6.07
Bears
28
6.07
Texans
29
6.06
Giants
30
6.04
Steelers
31
6.02
Packers
32
5.97
TP Rank based on TP Score and how much value each team got from their draft picks over the last three seasons
For a full treatment of the draft results and team grades, check out this magnum opus from Nathan Cooper, the head of our scouting operation.
We wrote a bunch of articles in the run-up to the NFL Draft that evaluated players, teams, and the league as a whole. How does what happened in this year’s draft reflect on what we learned through those pieces?
Our article on combine measurements looked to see how well they correlated to a player’s 2-year Total Points production value. We broke down all positions and their relative Total Points categories to see what combine measurements correlated well to success early on in a player’s career.
Anthony Richardson (Colts) set a broad jump (10’9”) and vertical jump (40.5”) record for quarterbacks at the combine. The broad jump has the highest correlation of Total Points production for quarterbacks, so his gaudy combine numbers may translate well if he is the presumed starter off the bat in Indianapolis. New head coach Shane Steichen …what are you gonna do? (more on Richardson in a little bit)
The Chiefs traded up in the second round to get SMU receiver Rashee Rice. Rice was tied with West Virginia’s Bryce Ford-Wheaton with the highest vertical jump (41”), which also shows a good correlation for receiver success. Patrick Mahomes worked out with Rice during the offseason, so he was able to see first hand the leaping abilities that his newly acquired weapon has.
In this article, we looked at what it means for a player to have a route tree that projects well to the NFL. There were three iterations of that analysis, and it gave us some players to watch out for.
– How many unique routes did a receiver run in college? – What percentage of their routes were among the NFL’s ten most common? – How did their rank order of route types run compare to the NFL average? Each of these is a bit more refined towards the NFL route tree than the other, but each resulted in similar suggestions of players who might outperform or underperform expectations.
On the high end, players like Jalin Hyatt (Giants) and Cedric Tillman (Browns), who came out of Tennessee and went back-to-back in the third round, had route trees that aligned well with the NFL. TCU’s Quentin Johnston (Chargers) also appeared on multiple lists on the positive end. Zay Flowers (Ravens) and Josh Downs (Colts) are the most at risk of underperforming, receiving red flags in all three variations of this analysis.
We’ll keep this one short. There were some interesting dives into different contextual elements that affect how we should evaluate the profiles of the top four quarterback prospects in this draft, but the biggest takeaway was just that Bryce Young (Panthers) and C.J. Stroud (Texans) had massive production, and they stood head-and-shoulders above the other QB prospects (and in line with previous top picks). This is mostly just to say that we might have been overthinking things a bit when there were conversations about the Texans passing on Stroud (and they ended up having their cake and eating it too by taking Will Anderson Jr. as well).
We took another look at our Total-Points-based draft pick value curve through a couple of lenses in this article, but we can also just run the model for the trades that happened during the draft. This year’s first-round trades were pretty tame, in part because teams didn’t move that much. The biggest move by far was the Texans jumping up to No. 3 to take Anderson, which cost them a hefty price. Even if we assume that next year’s draft picks—of which the Texans dealt their first and third rounders—are worth a quarter of a pick in the current year, the size of their overpay was as big as any trade the last couple drafts.
But if they assign little value to next year’s picks, the Texans weren’t very consistent in that approach. In a flurry of trades to start Day 3, they dealt the third pick of the fourth round to the Eagles for next year’s third rounder. From the perspective of our model, the Eagles actually underpaid to get to that slot, in a rare instance of a team not paying a premium to trade up.
Which NFL teams Would Be Most Justified In Drafting For Need? Speaking of the Eagles, we devised a measure of the quality of each team’s starters to find the teams for whom drafting for need would be most appropriate, and Philadelphia came out on top. Of course, they pretty much did what they typically do by taking quality trenches players with their first three picks, but they did use later picks to address some of the holes that remain on an otherwise fearsome roster. Another team we highlighted, the Chargers, took a best-player-available approach as well. They did not address their biggest holes in the secondary and interior offensive line.
The Titans and Raiders both had entire position groups that needed help—Tennessee’s offensive line and Las Vegas’ secondary—so they only could have done so much. The Titans took Peter Skoronski with their first pick, but the Raiders didn’t address the back end of their defense until the fourth round.
Regardless of how Colts fans feel about Anthony Richardson as a prospect, there must be some degree of optimism around his marriage to new head coach Shane Steichen.
Jalen Hurts and Richardson are different players, but Steichen was able to develop and maximize the former’s talents, especially in the run game. Hurts went from being on the hot seat to securing a $255 million extension, including substantial improvement as a passer. Even if you don’t believe in Richardson right now, the past results should be encouraging for a prospect like him who is considered to have a low floor.
