Category: Football

2024 AFC West Preview

Photo: Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire

The kings of the AFC West have been the Kansas City Chiefs for the past 8 years. By the looks of things, it seems as if the streak will not end this year, as the Chiefs are -230 favorites to win the division again according to DraftKings. The other 3 teams, meanwhile, will all have a different head coach and starting quarterback combination from what they had at the beginning of the year last year. Not ideal.

To help break it all down, Bryce Rossler and Matt Manocherian debate what we can expect from the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs and new-look Chargers, Raiders, and Broncos on the Off the Charts Football Podcast.

Here are a few takeaways from each team on what they discussed.

Can the Chiefs receiving core improve?

The defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs will look to bring home a third straight Lombardi Trophy. In order to do so, there needs to be improvement from their receiving core. Last year, the Chiefs receivers had the 2nd-highest drop percentage at 7.8% and the 10th-lowest on-target catch percentage at 88.4%.

Patrick Mahomes was able to mask the issues last year, but Bryce feels that the passing game will hinge on the Chiefs pass catchers this season.

“The Chiefs’ offense is a powerhouse, but without a reliable receiving core, Mahomes might struggle to maintain his usual high level of play. We need to see some young players step up this season.”

Matt agrees, but believes that it’s not about plugging in bigger names, as he states:

“It’s not just about having big names; it’s about how they fit into the system. The Chiefs have to ensure that their receivers can create separation and make big plays down the field.”

Even with the poor showing by the receivers, the Chiefs offense still ranked 8th in EPA per pass play last year and 5th in Total Points per play. If the pass catchers play even a fraction better than they did last season, there’s no reason to believe this team can’t go for three in a row.

Bo Nix leaves a lot to be desired in year one

It’s a new dawn in Denver, as rookie quarterback Bo Nix will try to take the reins of Sean Payton’s offensive system. Matt, who was a scout for the Saints in the Payton days, knows what it takes to succeed as a quarterback under Payton.

“The thing that was non-negotiable for him was accuracy. The ability to put the ball where it needed to go. There were quarterbacks that Payton brought in that surprised me. Players like T.J. Yates who weren’t particularly accurate in college. Bo Nix is that for me.”

Bryce, who wrote our scouting report on Nix, said

“His willingness is a problem. He leaves a lot of throws on the field past 10 yards. He makes good decisions in the quick game, but they are slow decisions. What is he doing to march the ball down the field other than the dink and dunk they did at Oregon?”

Last season, Nix had the 3rd-worst average depth of target (6.3 yards) among the 133 FBS quarterbacks with at least 150 pass attempts. Yes, he was successful in the offense, but there wasn’t much on his end trying to push the ball down the field.

There are some decent weapons there, but everything falls back on Nix, and the guys are concerned that he won’t be able to get the job done in year one.

The Raiders pass rush will need to mask the deficiencies on the back end of the defense

Bryce and Matt highlighted the Raiders’ strong pass rush but expressed concerns about the rest of the roster. The Raiders have some standout players who can pressure the quarterback, but other areas of the team might not be as solid.

Bryce believes the Raiders pass rush as a whole is underrated. He pointed out that they were 2nd in Team Pressures Above Expectation in 2023 and have 3 players in 2024 who were in the Top 20 (Maxx Crosby 2nd, Malcolm Koonce 16th, Christian Wilkins 19th).

The pass rush is a strength going into 2024, especially if Tyree Wilson can break out in year 2. However, the pass coverage unit is going to be an issue. The Raiders coverage unit was 29th in Pass Coverage Total Points in 2023 and didn’t do much to improve it in the offseason.

Said Bryce:

“This is not a very inspiring back end. Also, the linebackers aren’t good in coverage. They are towards the bottom in Pass Coverage Total Points as well.”

The pass rush will need to be elite for the Raiders defense to be a formidable stop unit, as the rest of the defensive roster leaves a lot to be desired.

Justin Herbert will be limited with Greg Roman as his OC…or will he?

Matt and Bryce disagreed on the outlook of the Chargers offense under Greg Roman, citing how good of a fit he is for Justin Herbert.

Bryce went the negative route

“I feel bad for Justin Herbert because the offensive line is trending in the right direction and now you have nothing at receiver and you also have Greg Roman as your offensive coordinator.”

Matt disagreed and likes the perspective of Roman taking over this offense.

“I really like this for Justin Herbert. Harbaugh and Roman made Kaepernick look good back in the day. These two are capable of putting a good offense together.

I believe the right way to build an organization is with the quarterback and the guys up front. I think the Chargers are acknowledging they aren’t a Super Bowl contender this year, but they are interested in making the playoffs. They aren’t interested in having the most productive Justin Herbert, but the most efficient Justin Herbert.”

Bryce disagreed, as he believes Kaepernick and Lamar Jackson (who Roman coached) are much different quarterbacks then compared to Herbert, and he believes the Roman scheme won’t fit Herbert well.

We’ll know which one was right in a few months.

Conclusion

The SIS Betting Model has spoken when it comes to the win totals for these teams.

The model has the Chiefs at 10 wins, while the market has them at 11.5. With the injury risk and depth issues, the under is intriguing to the guys.

The Raiders are projected at 9.8 wins, well above the 6.5 line in the market. Matt buys the over because they are gonna be in close games and believes that Minshew is a quarterback that can win games.

The Chargers are projected to finish 3rd at 8.7 wins, a mere 0.2 wins higher than the line. The Broncos are projected last at 4.7, 0.8 less than the line. Generally, the guys agree with the model and see more negative outcomes for the Broncos than positive ones.

Check out the entire podcast to get a more in-depth analysis of each team.

July 19, 2024

NFL Scouting Report: Bo Nix

Photo: Brian Murphy/Icon Sportswire

Bo Nix

6-2, 214, Denver Broncos QB

Overall Grade: 6.3

Scouting Report by Bryce Rossler

Summary

Nix is an athletic, gun-shy backup with sufficient accuracy, whose comfort in the quick game is offset by his apprehension to consistently challenge the second-and third-levels of the defense.

Bo Nix is a two-year starting quarterback at Oregon after playing his first 3 seasons, including the 2020 COVID year, at Auburn. In all, Nix played in and started 61 career games. The Ducks were primarily an 11 personnel spread team with a gap-heavy run game and a passing game that emphasized low and high horizontal stretch concepts, with lots of screen and RPO elements. He missed the final 3 games of the 2021 season with a broken ankle. Nix is a good athlete who has the speed and elusiveness to threaten a defense when needed. He has a sufficient build for the position. He is visibly emotional on the field and is a tough competitor, with players rallying behind him at Auburn and Oregon.

Pass Game

Nix displays sufficient footwork and a compact release. He is a good, efficient processor in quick-game concepts, particularly against zone coverages. He demonstrates mediocre anticipation against man coverage and has to see the break to trigger. He is generally avoidant of challenging “NFL open” windows downfield and tends towards checking it down. He works with good eye discipline to hold safeties, and he maintains downfield vision while climbing the pocket or breaking contain. Nix displays sufficient accuracy to the first and third levels of the field, but did not target the intermediate MOF. His ability to make layered throws to that area is a question mark. He has good body control and flexibility to access different arm slots and throw off-platform. Nix looks uncomfortable working from tighter pockets and has a tendency to spray the ball with pressure in his lap. He has sufficient arm strength, but might struggle to consistently make some of the more difficult throws in the NFL (e.g. field outs/comebacks, seams, layered throws into dig windows, fades vs. Cover 2).

Run Game

Nix is a good athlete with the requisite speed to be deployed in QB run game, and he successfully executed zone and gap schemes at Oregon. He has a good burst to get to the corner and is generally more of a one-cut runner than an elusive open-field threat. Nix protects himself and does not typically lower the shoulder to challenge in space. He is unlikely to be consistently effective at sneaks at the NFL level due to his build and lack of power.

Last Word
Nix projects as a quality backup at the next level who has enough ability to be an effective quarterback in standard down-and-distance situations, but will struggle in obvious dropback situations when teams tend to play tighter coverage and/or dial up pressure. He is proficient in the quick game, but his accuracy will not help optimize YAC, which is not ideal for West Coast offenses that would otherwise suit his skillset.

Critical Factors

On 1-9 scale

Accuracy	5
Decision Making/Mental	5
Clutch Performance	5

Positional Factors

Short Accuracy	5
Deep Accuracy	5
Pocket Awareness	5
Footwork	5
Under Pressure	4
Mobility	6
Arm Strength	5
Release	5
Awkward Throw	6
Eye Discipline	6
Leadership	5
Body Comp	5

Strengths

Mobility

Eye discipline

Awkward throw

Weaknesses

Anticipation vs Man

Accuracy under pressure

Willingness to work 2nd and 3rd levels

July 19, 2024

NFL Scouting Report: Caleb Williams

Caleb Williams

6-1, 214, Chicago Bears QB

Overall Grade: 7.0

Scouting Report by Michael Morgan

Summary

Caleb Williams is the accurate, off-script playmaking franchise quarterback who can dictate a team’s success in today’s NFL, with the belief that he can solidify his mechanics in a timing-based offense.

Williams is an off-script, big-play waiting to happen quarterback who played in Lincoln Riley’s shotgun-based RPO/one-read offense. At USC, Williams started all 26 games he played. Before USC, he spent his first year under Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma, playing in 11 games and starting the final seven games of 2021. During his career, Williams has a relatively clean injury history other than a 2022 PAC-12 title game hamstring injury and a finger injury he dealt with through 2023. Although slightly undersized, he withstands hits with a toughness, which his teammates rally around. This leads to a hero-ball mentality that, with his accuracy, often leads to big plays.

Pass Game

Williams operates at a high level, whether in the rhythm of his offense or in broken plays. Operating exclusively from shotgun, Williams does not show traditionally clean footwork or lower-body mechanics. However, this has not affected his accuracy on short or deep throws. His accuracy is pinpoint to all three levels, and he doesn’t show any signs of aiming or straining to make any throws. Pressure and hits do not seem to bother him either, as he seems to naturally avoid rushers in the pocket. If forced, Williams excels outside of the pocket, keeping his eyes downfield and has the accuracy and arm strength to make special plays. At times, he will try to keep plays alive too long when the checkdowns are available for easy completions and yards. As a decision maker, Williams seems to make the right reads at the right time, but questions of the simplicity of Lincoln Riley’s RPO/one-read system will follow Williams into the NFL.

Run Game

Whether with designed runs or scrambles, Williams has the mobility to be a threat. While not possessing game-changing speed, Williams has the pocket awareness and feel for pressure to take advantage of edge rushers that get out of their rush lanes. Once he breaks the pocket, he knows how to run and take advantage of bad angles by second-level defenders, making tackling him easier said than done. He shows the ability to make the right read on option plays, as well as RPOs, which adds to the vice he puts defenders in when running.

Last Word

Williams projects as a ”win because of” franchise quarterback who can thrive in an offense that blends RPOs with traditional dropbacks and will utilize his athleticism. His dynamic playmaking ability and 3-level accuracy will dictate his early success, or struggles, as he develops NFL-level footwork and mechanics. His offensive line forced him to be special at USC, and a better one in the NFL should limit the amount of special plays he has to make. He will not throw many interceptions due to his ball placement and decision making, but if he starts big play hunting, he could be susceptible to throwing more.

Critical Factors

(All grades on 1-9 scale)

Accuracy	8
Decision Making/Mental	7
Clutch Performance	6

Positional Factors

Short Accuracy	8
Deep Accuracy	8
Pocket Awareness	7
Footwork	5
Under Pressure	7
Mobility	6
Arm Strength	7
Release	6
Awkward Throw	8
Eye Discipline	6
Leadership	7
Body Comp	6

Strengths

Accuracy to all 3 levels

Off-script playmaking ability

Consistency

Weaknesses

Inconsistent mechanics

Big-play hunter

Non-traditional college offense

July 19, 2024

Off The Charts Division Preview: AFC South

Photo: Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire

The AFC South is going through a renaissance, as 3 out of the 4 teams have replaced their head coach and starting quarterback since the end of 2022. Every team believes it has their quarterback of the future and have made personnel upgrades at key positions in free agency and the draft.

The Texans caught everyone by surprise in 2023 in the first year of the Ryans/Stroud duo, winning both the division and a playoff game. Now as the division champs, they are no longer the young team looking to make a leap, but are now the hunted.

With a young team being chased by 3 formidable opponents, this division has all the makings of a wild and wacky race in 2024. To help bring some clarity, Bryce Rossler welcomed John Shipley of Jaguar Report SI to the Off the Charts Football Podcast to break down each team and how it will fare in 2024.

Here’s one thing the two discussed about each team and how that will impact them this season.

The Texans receiving core is really good and maximized by their scheme

Last season, the Texans had the 4th-most Receiving Total Points. Now, C.J. Stroud moves into year 2 with another top tier receiver in Stefon Diggs. With all of this talent, there is a legitimate argument the Texans can have the most prolific passing attack in the league this year.

Nico Collins returns as WR1 after posting a top 10 Receiving Total Points season last year. Collins is a big play waiting to happen, as he ranked behind only Brandon Aiyuk in Boom Percentage last year (plays with 1 EPA or greater) among players with at least 100 targets.

Two other Texans receivers, Tank Dell and Noah Brown, finished high in Boom Percentage too. The big play of these Texans receivers comes from both their talent and the scheme.

“I think their scheme impacts a lot of things. For example, the motions and play actions they did against the Jaguars last year led to two 50+ yard catches from Tank Dell where there wasn’t a DB within 10-15 yards of him because it was a complete coverage bust.”

– John Shipley

All eyes will be on the Texans offense in 2024 to see if it can replicate the success o 2023 and potentially make a deeper run into the playoffs.

Ryan Nielsen is an upgrade at defensive coordinator for the Jaguars

Ryan Nielsen takes over for Mike Caldwell to lead the Jaguars defense in 2024. Nielsen comes over from the Falcons where he improved a defense that ranked T-29th in EPA per Play in 2022 to T-7th in 2023. The pass rush doubled its sack total from one year to the next.

The Jaguars have talent in the pass rush department that is looking to take the next step as well. Josh Hines-Allen is a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year candidate (T-8th in odds at Draft Kings) and had the 4th-highest pressure rate among players with at least 300 pass rush snaps in 2023. They also added former 49ers defensive linemen Arik Armstead who is coming off a 5-sack season in only 12 games from the interior.

A big question will be whether or not Travon Walker can take the next step as a former number 1 overall pick.

John believes that he has the opportunity to be more versatile in Nielsen’s scheme.

”He is this freak athlete who you can try to get mismatches against guys across the offensive line. Now that there is a guy there who has shown he is willing to move guys around, I think that will be good for their front overall.”

– John Shipley

With the talent up front and the pedigree from a defensive coordinator to improve defenses quickly, the Jaguars defensive arrow is pointing up heading into 2024.

Colts’ athletes on offense will look to push the ball downfield

“They have some absolute freaks between Jonathan Taylor, A.D. Mitchell, and Anthony Richardson. These guys are absolute mutants.”

– John Shipley

In adding Anthony Richardson back into the fold as the signal caller, this offense will look to take advantage of Richardson’s athleticism and big arm to push the ball downfield, per Bryce.

“I think he wants to push the ball. We saw some of that when Richardson was active. With Richardson healthy, I think they will be more vertically oriented.”

– Bryce Rossler

Both of them need to see it from Richardson before anointing him as an MVP contender, but they both buy into him as a guy who can get there.

Will Levis is in for a rough time

Both Bryce and John are very low on Titans quarterback Will Levis going into this season. They see too much inconsistent play and questionable decision making, which leads them to think the Titans are in for a bad year.

“He was 24th in On-Target Rate Above Expectation among 34 quarterbacks with 200+ attempts. He was 32nd out of 41 quarterbacks in sack to pressure ratio. 33rd out of 35 in positive play rate and bust percentage. The lowlights are hilarious. I think it’s gonna be a trainwreck.”

-Bryce Rossler

“The best way I can describe Will Levis is that he plays like a Vince Vaughn movie character playing quarterback. There was one start against the Jags last year where he took a sack because he turned to hand the ball off the wrong way. I would be surprised if it ended up working out for him.”

-John Shipley

Yikes, not good. One thing going for Levis is that he can throw the ball downfield. He ranked 1st in average depth of target and was middle of the pack in boom percentage. He has the cannon arm, but he needs to limit all of the mistakes and ill-advised plays if the Titans offense is going to succeed. The addition of Calvin Ridley will provide some additional upside in a receiving group that was surprisingly above average by Total Points in 2023.

Conclusion

The SIS Betting Model sees the Texans as the division favorite with a projected 8.5 wins, but the Jaguars are close behind at 8.3. A clear dropoff ensues with the Colts at 5.8 and Titans at 4.3. A Texans repeat will be difficult with the Jaguars breathing down their necks, and if Richardson can play at that MVP level, this division can get crazy. In regards to the Titans, it might be time to pump the brakes on what this team can achieve offensively even with the weapons they added.

Check out the full breakdown of each team on the Off the Charts Football Podcast!

July 11, 2024

NFL Scouting Report: J.J. McCarthy

Photo: Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire

J.J. McCarthy

6-3, 219, Minnesota Vikings quarterback

Overall grade: 6.4

Scouting Report by Jordan Edwards.

Summary

J.J. McCarthy is an athletic quarterback who displays toughness and a winning mentality, but must continue to develop his anticipation and decision-making as he moves to the NFL.

McCarthy was the quarterback for the Michigan Wolverines and led them to a National Championship in 2023. He was the point guard in an offense that relied heavily on its power-run game and play-action passing. Michigan utilized a good amount of pre-snap motion to scheme up receivers downfield as well. McCarthy played in 40 games during a three-year span and was a starter for 28 consecutive games in the past two seasons. He suffered an ankle injury in the middle of the 2023 season but did not miss any game time. McCarthy is a well-rounded athlete who can extend plays out of structure and shows some twitch and speed in his movements. He has sufficient height for the position, but dons a slimmer frame than desired.

McCarthy is a leader through and through. Even though he was not eligible to be a captain for his team, he was a clear leader of a national championship winning team.

Pass Game

When McCarthy is working in structure, he can manage an offense quickly and efficiently. He shows good short accuracy and can zip the ball out quickly to his receivers to let them create after the catch. That accuracy and zip can also reach the intermediate parts and occasionally the opposite side of the field, too. He can correctly decipher half-field reads and put the ball on the spot quickly in these situations. His mental processing is still a work in progress (working full-field reads and throwing with anticipation). He sparingly throws his receivers open and waits for them to present themselves open downfield. His point-and-shoot throwing style can lead to inaccurate throws downfield. While his arm strength is good, there is clearly a cap on the velocity in which he throws the ball. He has sufficient arm talent but when his base underneath him isn’t set, his velocity and accuracy dip. He can rifle the ball into windows, but all of his throws are at one speed. He struggles to throw with touch when layering throws across the field is required.

McCarthy can deliver the ball on time over the middle of the field. However, he is hesitant to put the ball in between the hashes consistently. He doesn’t have a natural feel for maneuvering the pocket, but his athleticism shows this is an area that has promise with development. His toughness stands out in the pocket, as he will stand in and take a jarring hit when delivering the ball. Out of structure, his athleticism is on display. He can extend plays with his legs and deliver the ball with good zip on the run. While his willingness to extend plays is admirable, it can be a detriment to him at times. He will exhaust every second and blade of grass on the field to try and throw the ball downfield. This will lead to some questionable decision making, as he is willing to put the ball in harm’s way on occasion.

Run Game

McCarthy can add some value to an offense using his legs when necessary. His athleticism can be used on designed runs and scrambles when a play breaks down. While he shouldn’t be asked to be a pivotal part of a run scheme at the next level, his ability to threaten the defense with his legs must be noted.

Last Word

McCarthy projects to be a circumstantial starting quarterback with the potential of developing into a “win-with” level quarterback. He will be best served to play in an offensive scheme that utilizes motions and play action to a high degree.

While the flashes of playmaking ability stand out, the level of consistency in which McCarthy plays with must improve. He won’t be the most talented quarterback at the next level, but if he can improve his decision making and ability to play with anticipation, he can raise his floor.

Critical Factors

Accuracy	5
Decision Making/Mental	5
Clutch Performance	5

Positional Factors

Short Accuracy	6
Deep Accuracy	5
Pocket Awareness	5
Footwork	5
Under Pressure	5
Mobility	6
Arm Strength	6
Release	5
Awkward Throw	4
Eye Discipline	4
Leadership	7
Body Comp	5

Strengths

Athleticism to extend plays

Leadership and toughness

Short accuracy

Weaknesses

One-speed thrower

Throwing with anticipation

Stares down receivers

July 9, 2024

NFL Scouting Report: Drake Maye

Drake Maye

6-4, 223, New England Patriots QB

Overall Grade 6.8

Scouting Report by Matt Manocherian

Summary

Drake Maye is a young prospect with a tantalizing combination of size, athleticism, arm strength and accuracy to become a top NFL quarterback if and when the game slows down for him.

Maye is a right-handed quarterback in North Carolina’s no huddle, spread offense, where he is primarily utilized in short drops, RPOs and read options. UNC operates exclusively out of shotgun except in short-yardage situations. He played in 30 games in 3 seasons at UNC, including starting all 14 games in 2022 and each of their 12 regular season games in 2023 before declaring for the Draft. He is a young prospect who is still growing into his body, but he already shows good size, arm strength and athletic ability for the position. He is a tough player who was the clear leader of the offense, even as a redshirt freshman. He commands the no huddle well and can have the snap within 10 seconds at his fastest pace, including in the two minute drill against Duke to get the game to overtime. However, his inexperience shows up at times, including calling for the snap in an obviously illegal formation on the goal line in the same game.

Pass Game

Maye is a talented passer who is capable of flashes of brilliance. He has a clean, over-the-top release with a consistent, repeatable motion. He tends to pat the ball before he releases it, which complicates the fact that he is already not a quick processor. He needs to see things come open before he lets it rip, and it helps to present him with simplified half-field high/low reads. That said, he has enough arm that he can overcome his lack of anticipation with velocity. If he could get the ball out a hair sooner, several balls he completed out of bounds would likely be catches.

He is a very good deep ball thrower. He shows very good touch on deep fades and go balls that stress the defense in both Cover 1 and Cover 2. He can drive the ball downfield on a line without needing to put much air under it. He shows good ball placement on quick throws, and he is very good at making level-two throws down the seam. He shows great feel with the ability to take something off of his throws when he needs to. He can also ramp up his velocity with a clean pocket. Most of his misses come when the pocket is messy, and he can’t step into his throws. He also tends to miss when he has to work through his progressions and reset his feet.

Maye is very effective when he extends plays and gets into scramble drill situations. He keeps his eyes downfield against pressure and does a good job getting the ball out of his hands before the rush gets home. He usually throws well on the move, especially when running to his right and throwing to that side of the field, but he has also had some troubling turnovers in these situations, including a pick-six against Clemson in the 2022 ACC Championship. He can make outrageous jump-passes (touchdowns vs South Carolina and Clemson in 2023), but he also has some bad misses on plays where he tries to make these throws with no platform. He loves to give his receivers a chance to make plays down the field, but they let him down a lot in 2023.

Run Game

In the run game, Maye shows very good mobility. He has enough speed to be a legitimate run threat on the NFL level, but he won’t be faster than most defenders like he is in the ACC. They run a fair bit of option and read-option, but he’s a bit slow to make decisions in the read-option game. He is very dangerous on draws and can force the defense out of 2-man. He has the size to be effective on sneaks, but he isn’t a powerful runner. He is at his best on the second play when he can break contain, keep his eyes downfield, and when needed, scramble for first downs.

Last Word

Overall, Maye projects to become a strong starting quarterback with “win with” ability. At this time, he is best suited for and can be effective in a spread scheme with lots of deep shots, simplified half-field reads, and opportunities for improvisation. If he develops the ability to anticipate and progress through reads, the sky is the limit for him, with an upside comparable to Justin Herbert.

Critical Factors

Accuracy	6
Decision Making/Mental	5
Clutch Performance	6

Positional Factors

Short Accuracy	6
Deep Accuracy	7
Pocket Awareness	6
Footwork	6
Under Pressure	6
Mobility	7
Arm Strength	7
Release	6
Awkward Throw	6
Eye Discipline	7
Leadership	7
Body Comp	7

Strengths

Prototypical size and athleticism

Arm strength

Accuracy downfield

Weaknesses

Working through progressions

Anticipation

Negative plays

July 9, 2024

NFL Scouting Report: Jayden Daniels

Photo: Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire

Jayden Daniels, QB

6-3, 210, Washington Commanders

Overall Grade: 6.7

Scouting Report by Alec Mallon

Overall

Jayden Daniels is an elite athlete with a unique set of skills that will enable him to make game-changing plays with his arm and legs.

Daniels is a Heisman trophy winning quarterback for LSU’s high-octane, shotgun, spread offense. Daniels is a five-year collegiate player, starting all 55 games he appeared in, beginning his first three years at Arizona State then transferring to LSU where he played these past two seasons. Daniels has the desired height for the position, but is rail thin and could serve to add a little mass to his frame. He is a fantastic athlete that has twitchy movements and the breakaway speed to match. His competitiveness and toughness is evident as he can play through physical contact as runner and in the pocket.

Pass Game

Daniels has a lot to like. He is calm and poised with his drops and is always under control. He does a good job of keeping his feet under him and staying square to wherever he is looking. Daniels can move defenders with his eyes, but didn’t have to often with how the offense operated. He shows good ability to go through his progressions, often not getting to option three or four, but always makes sure to reset his feet and have a strong base before throwing. Daniels has a quick and compact release which helps him get the ball out to all areas of the field. His quick release helps him when under duress and can get the ball out quickly. When given a clean pocket initially, Daniels will stand strong and routinely deliver big-time throws if given the ability to step into it. When there is quick pressure and he isn’t given the chance to be in rhythm, he is easily sped up. His feet become a little choppy, and his weight transfer isn’t as fluid, leading for some passes to sail high over his intended receivers. Daniels does have good awareness while in the pocket and feels pressure from all sides well. He does a good job staying on his toes, giving him the ability to shuffle and move quickly while also staying in phase to deliver the ball down the field. As a passer, Daniels is accurate to all fields. He does struggle with touch throws to layer the ball when he has to take some zip off. When his footwork becomes sloppy, it can lead to inaccurate passes.

Daniels is good when delivering the ball with pace and can reach all areas of the field. He also has good ball placement and does a great job of protecting his receivers from oncoming defenders and even stopping their routes to help them change directions after the catch. An area he can improve is throwing with more anticipation. He can hold the ball a beat longer than needed as he is confirming that his targets are coming open downfield.

Run Game

Daniels is dangerous as a passer, but can truly change the game with his legs. On designed runs, Daniels has enough strength and physicality to run between the tackles and get tough yards when needed. When given space, he has excellent short burst and change-of-direction skills to get around edges and make defenders miss in the open field. Daniels may be at his best when designed pass plays break down. Daniels has the short burst and quick acceleration needed to escape the pocket but also has true long speed to beat defensive backs and linebackers to spots in the open field. Daniels takes on contact at the end of runs too often and makes some poor decisions. Due to his skinnier frame, he will need to take better care of himself by sliding and dodging big hits at the next level. He’s been knocked out of multiple college games due to big hits.

Last Word

Daniels projects as a “win-with” starting quarterback at the next level with real flashes of “win because of” traits. Daniels best fits a spread offense that will allow him to use his strong arm to drive the ball down field, while also allowing him to take off and use his legs when needed. Daniels is an accurate passer with a strong arm, but does need to clean up some of his mechanics with pressure around him and throw with better anticipation.

Critical Factors

Graded on 1-9 scale

Accuracy	6
Decision Making/Mental	5
Clutch Performance	6

Positional Factors

Short Accuracy	6
Deep Accuracy	6
Pocket Awareness	6
Footwork	6
Under Pressure	5
Mobility	8
Arm Strength	6
Release	7
Awkward Throw	6
Eye Discipline	6
Leadership	6
Body Comp	5

Strengths

Compact release

Playmaking ability

Ball placement

Weaknesses

Mechanics under pressure

Touch throws

Self protection

July 9, 2024

Scouting or Analytics? Both! (And Why Is This Even A Question?)

A couple of weeks ago, Seth Walder of ESPN and I were guests on Establish The Run with Adam Levitan and Michael Leone to talk about how NFL teams use “analytics.” Given my background as a scout for the Saints and Browns before spending my last eight years serving teams at SIS, I have some thoughts!

You can use analytics for game planning and in-game decision making. You can use it for roster construction. One that people might not think about is the performance side of things, where it interacts with strength coaches and the training staff. The NFL is about keeping players healthy. If you can find an advantage there, that’s huge.

There are certain teams and coaches that are fully in. There are certain departments that have specific use cases. Right now, there is still low-hanging fruit available that can give you an edge. It’s all part of the adoption cycle.

I actually don’t like using the word ‘analytics’ because it can make people uncomfortable. People get afraid. People are worried that scouts are going to get replaced.

When someone says, ‘Where can analytics make the most impact?’ I don’t think of it that way. To me, it’s ‘Where can information help people make better decisions that have impact?’

The answer is: everywhere.

In the best scenarios, there’s not a dichotomy of ‘this is scouting’ and ‘this is analytics.’ It’s blended. You’re using your analysts to make scouts that are more informed and can understand information that you’ve mutually agreed is important.

For example, if you wanted to show how a quarterback handled certain situations or you wanted to see a player’s injury history, the way an analytics team organizes information can help a scout with their video cutups. They work better together rather than siloed.

If there are people who believe that the data captures everything and there’s no use for scouts and coaches, that’s crazy and the hubris of that is crazy.

I say this as someone who has worked on both sides. The best information a team has is its scouting information. Their scouts have been trained for years in watching players and their actions in highly specific ways. The best “analytics” make use of this treasure trove of information.

That the place of analytics in the NFL isn’t a settled debate yet is fascinating to me. Our company has a 22-year history in baseball. It’s settled there. Every team has a sizable analytics department. The shift has been made to analytics that are more prescriptive. How can we make better players?

If we look to other sports for a glimpse into the future, the game could change in unforeseeable ways. I can imagine scenarios as wild as teams playing with multiple quarterbacks on the field becoming the norm. More predictably, the game will continue to become much more positionless. When you look across sports, you notice teams encouraging versatile players and creating ways to take advantage of spacing.

That’s where MLB and the NBA have been headed for years now. They measure and value the importance of spacing. And everyone is looking for versatility.

With football analytics, there is versatility. There’s not just 4th-down decision-making info. There’s Expected Points (and in our case, Total Points). There’s injury data. There’s scouting data. Every team has access to NextGen data. There are new developments in AI and machine learning that are going to open all sorts of avenues. We’re just scratching the surface there.

What we don’t fully have yet is belief and buy-in. We’re getting there but there’s still a way to go. I look forward to seeing it develop over time.

July 8, 2024
Off The Charts Division Preview: AFC North

Photo: Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire

Our first division preview (AFC East) highlighted three potential conference winners. The AFC North probably can’t claim that, but they had four winning teams in 2023 and the worst of those was missing its starting quarterback (the Bengals and Joe Burrow). This year, the SIS NFL betting model projects a couple of near-misses in terms of getting above .500, but the whole division is projected to be in the 8-to-11-win range.

To talk through the key storylines for each team, we had high school coach and Bengals enthusiast Nate James on the Off the Charts podcast.

Is the Bengals’ defense championship-caliber?

It hasn’t been that long, but there’s been quite a bit of change on the Cincinnati defense since defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo put himself on the map a couple postseasons ago.

In the last two offseasons the defense has lost much of its punch-you-in-the-mouth aesthetic. Two solid but relatively unheralded back-end pieces in safety Jesse Bates (Falcons) and corner Chidobe Awuzie (Titans) have left the fold in consecutive offseasons, and they’ve leaned into smaller athletes with compelling speed (e.g. Dax Hill).

To some extent as a result of that, their biggest liability is likely to be in the run game. The loss of defensive tackle D.J. Reader (Lions) might break the camel’s back of a defense that was 26th in Run Defense Total Points per play last year.

“You look at the fits; they corrected some of the issues theoretically, but they replaced Reader, one of the best nose tackles in the game, with Sheldon Rankins, very much not a nose tackle. They drafted Kris Jenkins, who I like a lot, but not a nose tackle. He has the potential to be an elite run defender, but frame-wise, that’s not what he is.

“You look at the games they did win in the playoffs, you see that Reader just dominated that Tennessee game. It all started with them being able to keep people off schedule, and then Lou could cook when they got to long yardage situations.”

– Nate James

Ravens: In a division with tough defenders up front, can an overhauled offensive line hold up?

The Ravens were in the top 10 in blocking Total Points per play last year, but the loss of three starters (Morgan Moses, John Simpson, and Kevin Zeitler) leaves more questions than answers. The unique run scheme that Baltimore has been able to execute with Lamar Jackson at the helm has raised their floor as an offense when the skill position players haven’t been there on the outside. With minimal continuity up front—not to mention a new backfield with Derrick Henry in the fold—there isn’t the same bankability.

“I’m not a huge Roger Rosengarten guy. I know he’s got some length and he can move, but I can’t get the image of him getting bull rushed onto the back of his head in the National Championship Game out of my head….And it’s not like Van Cleveland’s some bum, they’ve got guys that have played in the league some. It’s just an issue of continuity and how they’ll gel together for a team that most people would expect to be in the playoffs.”

– Nate James

“Morgan Moses is not necessarily a name that rings bells across the league, but if Morgan Moses is your OL4 among your starting five you’re pretty happy about that.”

“I also have some concerns about Ronnie Stanley. He’s been through quite a bit in his career, and when I watch, he’s not the same player he was two, three years ago.”

– Bryce Rossler

To put it differently from a numbers perspective, in 2023 SIS’s Sonar depth chart had four of the five Ravens’ starters in the top third at their position by Total Points per game. This year, only center Tyler Linderbaum qualifies.

How much does the Browns’ roster continuity make up for their lack of solid quarterback play?

Obviously the Browns showed in 2023 that they could make the playoffs with chaos at the most important position. But that was with a Defensive Player of the Year campaign from Myles Garrett and an overall defense that was top two in run defense and pass rush by Total Points per play. Defensive performance is famously difficult to project from season to season, and they haven’t made splashy moves in the offseason, but they’re at least bringing continuity to the table.

“The Browns are tailor made to beat the Bengals. They have so much pass rush juice, they’ve got the corners to at least credibly challenge those guys on a down to down basis. They’re really good at corner, pass rush, they can run you over, but are they good enough at quarterback and on the margins to beat really good teams outside of that? There’s not a lot of transactions to talk about, because they haven’t had draft picks and they’ve been able to maintain most of their own guys. It’s hard to look at their roster and not wonder why they’re not a bigger factor.”

– Nate James

The trouble is that Deshaun Watson being healthy doesn’t necessarily mean an improvement at quarterback. Whether it’s injury or time off or psychological baggage, he has not been the same since his MVP-caliber 2020 season.

“I think people would probably point to the quarterback situation last year and be like, ‘Well, there’s no reason we can’t do it again,’ but Deshaun Watson is not good right now. We have him 26th out of 41 quarterbacks since 2022 in Total Points per play. I think he’s sandwiched between Baker Mayfield and Aiden O’Connell, which is not good company.”

– Bryce Rossler

“I think the time away has hurt for sure. The last time he was good was, what, 2020, and that’s too long ago. It’s possible that he could turn around, but it’s legitimately hard not to think of some karmic debt having an impact on his and their success right now.”

– Nate James

Can either new Steelers quarterback make music with new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith?

After a winning season with Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph rotating through at quarterback, the Steelers cleaned house and added more notable names in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. That said, it’s not clear that more notable production will come from the changes.

“I think it’s fair to say that you trust Russell Wilson a little bit more. Even though he is not necessarily a consistent player, stylistically he is consistent. You know what you’re going to get out of him every game at this point, for better or worse. But he’s never really shown, even when he was good, the ability to consistently do the things that Arthur Smith is going to ask him to do, like turning his back under center, running play action, throwing over the middle.”

– Bryce Rossler

“All stuff he has been documented to not do for a prolonged period of time. You look at the last time Smith ran an offense that was good would have been in Tennessee. Is the archetype for an Arthur Smith quarterback, Ryan Tannehill? We’re talking about two very un-Tannehill-like guys, in terms of being big, standing in, getting punched in the face, pushing the ball downfield, it’s just not what they have.”

– Nate James

In terms of total production, Wilson and Fields were effectively tied, ranking 21st and 22nd (respectively) in Total Points in 2023. The combination of Pickett, Trubisky, and Rudolph would have placed comfortably below that. So there’s room for optimism on an otherwise winning roster, but plenty of uncertainty.

July 8, 2024
Off The Charts Division Preview: AFC East Has 3 Super Bowl Contenders

Photo: Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire

There is an argument to be made that three out of the four teams in the AFC East can win the Super Bowl. There is also a case that the fourth team might have drafted the best quarterback in the draft. With so many teams fighting for ultimate glory, this division is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in the NFL.

To break it all down, Mark Schofield from SB Nation joins our own Bryce Rossler to look at each team in this division in the latest episode of Off The Charts.

Let’s dive into one thing Bryce and Mark talked about for each team and how it will shape the landscape of the AFC East this season.

How vulnerable are the Bills to giving up the AFC East crown?

In the offseason, the Bills lost Stefon Diggs, Tre’Davious White, Mitch Morse, Leonard Floyd, Jordan Poyer, Gabe Davis, and potentially Micah Hyde. A serious reshaping of the roster will take effect in 2024, putting all the more pressure on Josh Allen to be an MVP caliber quarterback.

The Bills have decided to put all their eggs into the Allen MVP basket, as they have given him fewer weapons to make hay on the offensive side of the ball. The last two years of production show that he is capable of achieving this level, as he is only behind Patrick Mahomes in Total Points in that time.

“They still have who I would say is the second-best quarterback in football in Josh Allen. And, despite all the things I said about Josh Allen coming out, he’s a guy that can and has carried this team. But this is kind of a soft rebuilding year for them.”

– Bryce Rossler

A soft rebuild? With all the talent in the AFC East, it is certainly reasonable to think this team is vulnerable to not win the division.

The Jets don’t need vintage Aaron Rodgers to make noise this year.

The 2024 Jets are primed to take a major step forward assuming that they can get a lot more than 4 plays out of Aaron Rodgers this year.

They bolstered the offensive line by signing veteran tackles Morgan Moses and Tyron Smith, and then used the 11th pick in the draft on another tackle in Penn State’s Olu Fashanu.

After Rodgers went down, less-than-middling quarterback play ultimately led to their demise. Their young talents in Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson were severely limited by this, and they could never make the impact that they are capable of.

On the other side of the ball, the Jets boast one of the best stop-units in the NFL. In 2023, they ranked second in EPA per play against the pass and sixth against the run. That’s all the more impressive with them being on the field more often than not due to the inept offense. Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner will once again be the anchors, with both coming off Pro Bowl seasons and Gardner his second straight first team All-Pro season.

All of the talent here suggests that Rodgers doesn’t need to be otherwordly.

“They need just say an average Rodgers, like, subpar year. He probably gets them to be a playoff team, and that was the hope going into last year. If you just got sort of run-of-the-mill season type numbers from Aaron Rodgers, you’re probably a playoff team.”

– Mark Schofield

Anything can be better than an offense that ranked last in passing EPA and positive play percentage that the Jets’ quarterbacks gave them last season, so a jump to at worst 16th would be a major improvement and can get this team to a place it hasn’t been to since the days of Mark Sanchez.

How good does the Miami Dolphins defense need to be?

The departure of Vic Fangio at defensive coordinator, late-season injuries to Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips, and free agency losses in Christian Wilkins and Andrew Van Ginkel leave a lot of questions about this Dolphins defense. This defense ranked 12th in EPA per play last season before all that upheaval.

However, there is still plenty of talent here. Phillips and Chubb will return at some point during the season and the Dolphins used their first round pick on Penn State edge rusher Chop Robinson to add to the rotation. Jalen Ramsey ranked first in EPA per target allowed among cornerbacks in a partial season. Jevon Holland also finished in the Top 10 in EPA per target among safeties with 15 targets.

The Dolphins also added Jordyn Brooks and Jordan Poyer via free agency, two players who had significant impacts to their prior teams. Brooks topped linebackers in Pass Rush Total Points per play while Poyer was Top 10 among safeties in Run Defense Total Points.

Anthony Weaver comes in from the Ravens to take the reins of a defense that has seen a lot of moving parts. Luckily, this offense is still good enough to lead this team, so a top five defense isn’t really required.

“I think this doesn’t need to be a top five defense. This doesn’t need to be a defense that you’re calling on and hoping will pitch a shutout here and there. It needs to be the kind of defense that can steal an extra possession or two for your offense, particularly. On those days where that offense is struggling a little bit, give them a short field, give them an extra possession via a turnover, things like that.”

– Mark Schofield

Can Drake Maye be the answer for the Patriots to push the ball down the field?

As soon as the 2023 NFL Draft was complete, rumblings began about the 2024 talent at quarterback. At the time, Drake Maye and Caleb Williams were considered the top tier, and mock drafts varied between the two on who would be the top pick.

Fast forward a year after the rise of Jayden Daniels and the meteoric rise of Williams, Maye dropped out of the top tier and ended up as the third overall pick of the draft.

Yes, Maye also took a bit of a step back in 2023, with fewer passing yards and a lower Independent Quarterback Rating (IQR) for the Tar Heels, but there are plenty of signs that the Patriots might have found the guy to build around in the future.

“You see some of the throws, some of the reads, the willingness to attack the middle of the field with velocity between defenders with anticipation type throws. You see the competitive toughness, which is the thing that I value highly in quarterbacks.”

– Mark Schofield

In his two full seasons Maye had the 3rd and 15th most pass attempts between the numbers in the FBS, respectively, and he was in the Top 15 in IQR (our Independent QB Rating stat) in both seasons.

Going forward, Maye and the Patriots will look to add verticality in the offense under new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt. Van Pelt comes from a Browns offense that ranked 7th in average depth of target in 2023. The Patriots’ offense ranked 28th.

The goal this year is to evaluate Maye and see if he can be the quarterback of the future, so giving him every possible opportunity to excel in this offense is crucial.

So what do Mark and Bryce think on how the division will pan out? You can check out the full podcast here for more of a breakdown as well as their predictions.

June 28, 2024