Category: Football

Scouts vs. Stats: Top 10 NFL Quarterbacks

Photo: Ian Johnson and Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire

Over the spring/summer, the SIS R&D staff is convening on the Off the Charts Podcast to talk about their top ten players at a position. To do this, we pit two methodologies against each other:

The “Scouts,” which comes down to the film-based opinions of Matt Manocherian and Bryce Rossler, each of whom has a lot of experience breaking down film and scouting players (Matt having been a scout for NFL teams).
The “Stats,” which involves James Weaver and Alex Vigderman devising a ranking based on a suite of metrics, and having that ranking speak for itself.

Officially, Sports Info Solutions does not condone the dichotomy between scouting and statistical analysis. Each of them provides data in their own way and should inform our evaluation of a player.

When we originally produced the Football Rookie Handbook before transitioning that content to our NFL Draft site, we put the scouting reports and stats side-by-side with the idea that the reader would bounce back and forth between them and leverage both to come to a conclusion about a prospect.

This week, we flipped sides, with Alex and James providing their scouting insights while Bryce and Matt assumed the mantle of the nerds. With quarterbacks, it was easy for everyone to agree on the No. 1 guy, but there were some differences of opinion along the way.

Scouts’ Opinion	Statistical Analysis
1. Patrick Mahomes	1. Patrick Mahomes
2. Joe Burrow	2. Justin Herbert
3. Josh Allen	3. Josh Allen
4. Jalen Hurts	4. Aaron Rodgers
5. Justin Herbert	5. Jalen Hurts
6. Trevor Lawrence	6. Joe Burrow
7. Aaron Rodgers	7. Tua Tagovailoa
8. Lamar Jackson	8. Dak Prescott
9. Dak Prescott	9. Kirk Cousins
10. Russell Wilson	10. Derek Carr

The Stats List Methodology

The stats-based ranking includes a three-year recency-weighted average of a player’s per-snap performance in Total Points, with their most recent season having a weight of 3, the second-most recent having a weight of 2, and their third-most recent having a weight of 1.

Total Points arguably evaluates quarterback performance better than any other position, if only because there is an abundance of data points related to quarterback play that factor into it.

Matt and Bryce initially thought to blend it with a second weighted EPA model that incorporated variables like Expected On-Target +/- (xOnTgt+/-) and throw depth, but concerns about historical sample with respect to xOnTgt+/- ultimately led them to decide that keeping it simple was best.

It should also be noted that this methodology was not limited to Passing Total Points; Rushing Total Points is equally factored in, and that is reflected in the placement of players like Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, both of whom have been extremely productive on the ground.

What the Stats Showed

As Matt noted, it would have been difficult to tweak the model in a way to dethrone Patrick Mahomes.

“In terms of Z-scores, the difference between Patrick Mahomes and the second-ranked player, Justin Herbert, was bigger than the difference between Herbert and Derek Carr [the 10th-ranked player],” Matt said, “Mahomes was two standard deviations above average; the next-highest Z-score was Herbert, who was a little over one standard deviation above average.”

After a clear tier break, Herbert and Allen rounded out the top three, being the two of the remaining three players on the list to have ranked in the top 10 in Passing Total Points/play each of the last two years. (Herbert ranked 6th and 1st in 2022 and 2021, respectively; with Allen ranking 10th and 8th.)

Allen’s rushing also proved to be a windfall for him, with Bryce pointing out that, in 2022, the Bills generated 11 EPA on running plays, with Allen himself accounting for 33 rushing EPA.

Dak Prescott also ranked in the Top 10 in Passing Points/snap each of the past two years, but missed most of 2020 with an injury. Another player whose 2020 hurt them a bit in the stats ranking was Joe Burrow, whose ill-fated rookie season dampened his placement, despite performing well each of the past two years.

Following Burrow was Tua Tagovailoa, whose extremely efficient Year 3 with Mike McDaniel and Tyreek Hill was enough to propel him into the Top 10, despite not ranking in the Top 20 in Passing Total Points in either of his first two seasons in the league.

What the Scouts Thought

The scouts’ list likewise featured Patrick Mahomes at No. 1 and Josh Allen at No. 3, but Alex and James opted to place Burrow second rather than Herbert.

Their reasoning?

“Burrow just has that ‘It’ factor and has produced more results at this point than Herbert,” James said, “He went into Kansas City and beat Patrick Mahomes, which is something Herbert hasn’t done yet, and there’s something to be said for that.”

After that, there was a tier break with Jalen Hurts and the aforementioned Herbert placed at No. 4 and No. 5, respectively. The scouts expressed a bit of apprehension about Hurts simply because the Philadelphia offense was an extremely good fit for him last year, but still asserted that his leadership, his running ability, and his deep ball are reasons to be optimistic about him moving forward.

The scouts also included Trevor Lawrence (No. 6), Lamar Jackson (No. 8), and Russell Wilson (No. 10) in their list, despite all of them having bad statistical years at some point within the last three seasons. James was bullish on Lawrence’s prospects moving forward, citing his arm talent, his mobility, and his command of the offense in Year 2 as very positive signs. Jackson was given the benefit of the doubt with respect to his injuries and the supporting cast around him the last few seasons, and Wilson likewise got a pass for a dysfunctional first year in Denver, but the scouts did note that he’s likely past his prime.

Want to hear more discussion and debate? Check out this episode of the podcast:

July 21, 2023

2023 SIS Preseason Sun Belt All-Conference Team

As we approach the beginning of the 2023 college football season, we want to highlight some of the top players in each conference by announcing our SIS Preseason All-Conference teams. We used our all-encompassing player value stat, Total Points, along with other metrics and our scouting work as leading references in putting together our selections.

You can learn more about Total Points and the statistics referenced here.

Offense

Position	Name	School
QB	Grayson McCall	Coastal Carolina
RB	Frank Gore Jr.	Southern Miss
WR	Caulin Lacy	South Alabama
WR	Tyrone Howell	UL-Monroe
TE	Clayton Ollendieck	Troy
FLEX	La’Damian Webb	South Alabama
OT	Nick Kidwell	James Mdison
OT	Grant Betts	Troy
OG	Khalil Crowder	Georgia Southern
OG	Bucky Williams	Appalachian State
OC	Bryce Ramsey	Southern Miss

Grayson McCall has been a dominant force in the Sun Belt as he has led the conference in both passing total points and overall total points the last 3 seasons and will look to stay on top this season.

Frank Gore Jr. is the top RB in the conference as his 38 Total Points and his Broken + Missed Tackle % of 32% were both Top-20 in the nation.

La’Damian Webb isn’t too far behind as his 29 Total Points were good enough to crack the Top-25 in the country and his 13 rushing TDs last season were good for 2nd in the conference last season.

Webb’s teammate Caullin Lacy’s On-Target Catch% of 92.5% was good for third in the conference for receivers with a minimum of 75 targets. Tyrone Howell led all receivers in the conference with a minimum of 75 targets with 0.4 Broken & Missed tackles per Reception.

Khalil Crowder had a Blown Block% of 0.9 in almost 1000 snaps and was second last season in Total points for all OL in the conference with 39. Bucky Williams led all OL with a 0.5% Blown Block rate (with a minimum of 500 snaps ).

Defense

Position	Name	School
DT	James Carpenter	James Madison
DT	Ja’Quon Griffin	Coastal Carolina
EDGE	Owen Porter	Marshall
EDGE	T.J. Jackson	Troy
LB	Eli Neal	Marshall
LB	Taurus Jones	James Madison
CB	Reddy Steward	Troy
CB	Micah Abraham	Marshall
S	Jay Stanley	Southern Miss
S	Yam Banks	South Alabama
FLEX	O’shai Fletcher	Troy

T.J. Jackson was second team All-SIS last season and a big reason was his 41 total points. He is joined by fellow Troy teammate and All-SIS 2nd teamer from last year, Reddy Steward. His 55 Coverage Total Points was good for 4th in the country last season. James Carpenter led all front 7 players with 28 Total Points against the run.

Marshall is well represented on the defensive side having 1 representative on each level of the defense. Owen Porter was top-25 in the nation last season with 9.5 sacks and his 27 total points from pass rushing led the conference for front 7 players. Eli Neal was 2nd among LBs in the conference with 24 Total Points against the run. Micah Abraham was 3rd in the conference with 38 Coverage Total Points. Abraham was also tied with South Alabama’s Yam Banks for the conference lead with 6 INTs. Both players tied for 2nd in the nation last season.

Specialists

Position	Name	School
K	Dominic Zvada	Arkansas State
P	Ethan Duane	Old Dominion
Returner	Milan Tucker	Appalachian State

Dominic Zvada went nearly perfect last season going 17-of-18 on FGs and 30-of-31 on XPs. Ethan Duane led the conference with 28 punts inside the 20 and was tied for 3rd in the conference with 10 of them landing inside the 10 yard line. Milan Tucker was 2nd in the conference with 616 KR yards and returned 1 for a TD.

July 20, 2023

2023 SIS Preseason SEC All-Conference Team

You can learn more about Total Points and the statistics referenced here.

Offense

Position	Name	School
QB	Jayden Daniels	LSU
RB	Quinshon Judkins	Ole Miss
WR	Malik Nabers	LSU
WR	Ladd McConkey	Georgia
TE	Brock Bowers	Georgia
FLEX	Raheim Sanders	Arkansas
OT	Will Campbell	LSU
OT	Gunner Britton	Auburn
OG	Cam’ron Johnson	Missouri
OG	Tate Ratledge	Georgia
OC	Sedrick Van Pran	Georgia

LSU’s Jayden Daniels headlines the offensive team returning as the SEC QB selection from the 2022 season. He returns as the conference’s second leading quarterback in passing Total Points at 106. Additionally, last year he was the conference’s leading rusher amongst all positions with 71 Total Points which was 25 more than the next closest player.

That player was Ole Miss’ Quinshon Judkins. Judkins is our selection at the RB spot where he is looking to add onto his spectacular freshman season, leading all conference running backs in Total Points. The third leading rusher in Total Points was Arkansas’ Raheim Sanders who earned a spot at the “Flex” position.

The two-time defending National Champion Georgia Bulldogs lead the way with four selections on the offensive side of the ball, with Tight End Brock Bowers leading the way. His 32 Total Points in 2022 led the conference among all eligible positions and was only 2nd in the entire FBS in Total Points at tight end. Georgia’s Sedrick Van Pran also fortifies the OL group, where his 36 Total Points in 2022 led the conference among returning interior lineman.

Defense

Position	Name	School
DT	Mekhi Wingo	LSU
DT	Jordan Jefferson	LSU
EDGE	Harold Perkins	LSU
EDGE	Dallas Turner	Alabama
LB	Nathaniel Watson	Mississippi State
LB	Smael Mondon Jr.	Georgia
CB	Dwight McGlothern	Arkansas
CB	Kool-Aid McKinstry	Alabama
S	Jordan Lovett	Kentucky
S	Malaki Starks	Georgia
FLEX	Kris Abrams-Draine	Missouri

LSU also headlines the defensive side of the ball occupying three of the four defensive front selections. Mekhi Wingo returns as the conference’s leading defensive tackle in pass rush Total Points Saved and was only second to Top 10 NFL selection Jalen Carter in points saved in run defense. Harold Perkins also looks to build onto his dominant freshman season where he totaled 7.5 sacks and leads the SEC in returning Pass Rush Points Saved among all front seven players.

Arkansas’ Dwight McGlothern and Alabama’s Kool-Aid McKinstry lead the way in returning Total Points saved amongst cornerbacks in the SEC from last season with 52 and 51 Total Points Saved respectively. The conference’s third leading defensive back with 47 Total Points Saved, Kris Abrams-Draine represents the “Flex” position out Missouri where he shined in just his second season at cornerback after switching positions (he was originally a wide receiver).

Specialists

Position	Name	School
K	Will Reichard	Alabama
P	Kai Kroeger	South Carolina
Returner	Lideatrick Griffin	Mississippi State

Alabama’s Will Reichard made 84.6% of his 26 FG attempts in 2022 making 9 FG of 40+ yards. South Carolina’s Kai Kroeger led the SEC last season in net avg among all punters while also leading the conference in punts that were downed inside the 20- and 10-yard line.

July 17, 2023

Scouts vs Stats: Top 10 Interior Offensive Linemen

Over the spring/summer, the SIS R&D staff is convening on the Off the Charts Podcast to talk about their top ten players at a position. To do this, we pit two methodologies against each other:

The “Scouts,” which comes down to the film-based opinions of Matt Manocherian and Bryce Rossler, each of whom has a lot of experience breaking down film and scouting players (Matt having been a scout for NFL teams).
The “Stats,” which involves James Weaver and Alex Vigderman devising a ranking based on a suite of metrics, and having that ranking speak for itself.

Officially, Sports Info Solutions does not condone the dichotomy between scouting and statistical analysis. Each of them provides data in their own way and should inform our evaluation of a player.

So, without further ado, let’s head into the trenches and break down the ‘Best Interior Offensive Linemen in the NFL’ Top 10 lists.

Scouts’ Opinion	Statistical Analysis
1. Zack Martin	1. Jason Kelce
2. Jason Kelce	2. Kevin Zeitler
3. Creed Humphrey	3. Joel Bitonio
4. Quenton Nelson	4. Isaac Seumalo
5. Joel Bitonio	5. Zack Martin
6. Erik McCoy	6. Tyler Linderbaum
7. Joe Thuney	7. Joe Thuney
8. Brandon Scherff	8. Jon Runyan Jr.
9. Corey Linsley	9. Ben Powers
10. Frank Ragnow	10. Creed Humphrey

The Stats List Methodology

The stats-based ranking includes a three-year recency-weighted average of a player’s results across several different metrics, with the following weights applied to each:

- 25% Pass Blocking Total Points
- 20% Run Blocking Total Points
- 10% Pass Blown Block Rate
- 10% Run Blown Block Rate
- 10% Holding penalty avoidance

5% Positional versatility

Total Points does as good a job of evaluating offensive line play as anything in our arsenal, so we leveraged that most, leaning a bit more into pass blocking than run blocking. These are both season totals, so to give more credit to play-to-play effectiveness we added in blown block rates as well.

Total Points doesn’t account for penalties (yet), so we wanted to ascribe some value to avoiding holding penalties. Typically linemen aren’t being called for these more than a few times a year, but they’re absolute drive killers.

And lastly, we wanted to give players credit for playing multiple positions. Most of the top players aren’t moving around because they’re so good at their primary position, but being able to provide support at multiple alignments is absolutely a valuable aspect of a player.

What the Stats Showed

The top three players on the stats list have two things in common: they are strong in both the pass game and run game, but they’re better as run blockers. That’s a bit surprising because the passing game was weighted more strongly in the metric the stats group used.

Each of Eagles C Jason Kelce, Ravens G Kevin Zeitler, and Browns G Joel Bitonio ranked in the top 15 in both Pass Blocking and Run Blocking Total Points (out of over 200 candidates), but all of their Run Blocking Total Points ranks were the higher of the two. Kelce separated himself by ranking in the top 20 in blown block rate both passing and running, which no one else could claim.

One feature that contributed to Kelce’s Total Points ranking (and is somewhat relevant for other players on the list) is that it’s difficult to disentangle responsibility for quarterback designed runs, particularly sneaks. With how much the Eagles leaned into the sneak in 2022, there are a lot of high-value plays for which Kelce is getting some Total Points credit.

Almost every player outside the top few was a good bit more productive at one type of blocking than the other. Cowboys G Zack Martin (No. 5) and Chiefs G Joe Thuney (No. 7) were the notable exceptions, ranking in the top 25 in each, but down years by their standards in 2022 dropped them down the list.

First-year Ravens center Tyler Linderbaum cracked the list at No. 6, thanks to excellent production in the run game. He ranked second in the Run Blocking Total Points category, and 12th in run blown block rate. It’s worth noting that he does have the quarterback-run caveat that affects Kelce (and former teammate Isaac Seumalo, now of the Steelers), but he was a top pick who was expected to deliver “out of the box”, so to speak, so this isn’t surprising.

What the Scouts Thought

The scouts’ list was chalky at the very top, featuring two perennial All-Pros in Martin and Kelce. A slightly less chalky No. 3 ranking went to Chiefs C Creed Humphrey.

The Chiefs are the only team to have two players on the list for both groups, with Humphrey showing up higher on the scouts’ list but below Joe Thuney on the stats list. Humphrey came in and helped transform the Kansas City line in 2021, and has done so with a difficult role, being asked to reach block and sometimes take on interior pass rushers 1-on-1.

Arguably the biggest discrepancy between the lists came with Colts G Quenton Nelson coming in at No. 4.

Per Matt, “when [Nelson’s] at his best, he’s just an absolute mauler, somebody who can move defensive tackles off the ball in the duo game when you have double teams on the inside.” Nelson helped make the Indy offensive line what it was the last few years, but a down year in 2022 did give some pause as to where he’d rank.

No. 6 ranked Erik McCoy (Saints C) plays with control and power, with exceptional processing ability in the passing game. Bryce would easily rank him a top-three center, while Matt has concerns about his skill in the run game and his ability to stay on the field consistently. The stats back that up to some extent, as he ranked in the Top 10 in avoiding blown blocks in the passing game and in the 60s in the run game.

Matt and Bryce each advocated for Chargers C Corey Linsley and Lions C Frank Ragnow to make the list at Nos. 9 and 10, respectively. They actually ranked first and second in three-year pass blown block rate, but other factors took them out of the Top 10 on the stats-based list.

Matt contends that the Chargers did well to build “inside-out” by bringing in Linsley to play center a couple years ago, taking pressure off their guards. Bryce notes that Ragnow allows the Lions to “do a lot of wacky stuff” with the complexity in their run game, and his intelligence allows him to pick up pass rush games on the interior.

Want to hear more discussion and debate? Check out this episode of the podcast:

July 13, 2023

2023 SIS Preseason Pac-12 All-Conference Team

You can learn more about Total Points and the statistics referenced here.

Offense

Position	Name	School
QB	Caleb Williams	USC
RB	Bucky Irving	Oregon
RB	Carson Steele	UCLA
WR	Dorian Singer	USC
WR	Rome Odunze	Washington
TE	Terrance Ferguson	Oregon
OT	Roger Rosengarten	Washington
OT	Taliese Fuaga	Oregon State
OG	Justin Dedich	USC
OG	Keaton Bills	Utah
OC	Duke Clemens	UCLA

One of the easiest choices on any all-conference team is reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams who led the FBS in Total Points last season. Oregon’s Bucky Irving showed his elusiveness last season leading the Pac 12 in Broken Tackle +Missed Tackle% at 35%. Dorian Singer and Rome Odunze are each coming off 1,000-yard seasons and ranked 1st and 2nd respectively last season in Receiving Total Points in the Pac-12. Terrance Ferguson has an under-the-radar season, but led Pac-12 tight ends last season in Receiver Rating (minimum 25 targets). The final skill position spot was hotly contested, but Ball State transfer Carson Steele got the nod after leading the country in rushing yards after contact last season.

The offensive line is very balanced, representing 5 different schools. Both tackles, Roger Rosengarten and Taliese Fuaga, finished T-2nd among Pac-12 tackles last season in Blown Block Rate, coming in at 1.4%. Justin Dedich and Keaton Bills are 1st and 2nd respectively among returning Pac-12 guards in Blocking Total Points. Rounding out our offensive line is Duke Clemens who finished 3rd in the Pac-12 in Run Blocking Points above average last season.

In a league of explosive offenses, there were some tough decisions, and it’s worth mentioning a few players who just missed the cut, but could find themselves on the 1st team postseason. Troy Fautanu, Josh Baker, Jacob Cowing, and Brant Kuithe are all expected to have big seasons in 2023.

Defense

Position	Name	School
DT	James Rawls	Oregon State
DT	Junior Tafuna	Utah
EDGE	Laiatu Latu	UCLA
EDGE	Bralen Trice	Washington
LB	Eric Gentry	USC
LB	Karene Reid	Utah
CB	Chau Smith-Wade	Washington State
CB	Nohl Williams	California
S	Cole Bishop	Utah
S	Calen Bullock	USC
S	Kitan Oladapo	Oregon State

James Rawls and Junior Tafuna show great balance along the defensive line as they are the only 2 returning Pac-12 defensive tackles to earn at least 12 Pass Defense Total Points and at least 12 Run Defense Total Points last season. The Pac-12 leader in pressures returns in Laiatu Latu as does the 3rd-place finisher Bralen Trice. The linebacker core includes a pair of linebackers who find multiple ways to leave their mark in the passing game. Eric Gentry and Karene Reid were 2 of just 6 Pac-12 defenders last season to achieve a 22% or higher Pressure Rate (minimum 10 pressures, 50 pass rushes), while both linebackers also recorded an interception as well.

The secondary is littered with playmakers including the Top-2 returning Pac-12 defenders in Coverage Total Points in Chau Smith-Wade and Calen Bullock. Cole Bishop was one of the most effective safeties in the country last season, finishing 5th in the FBS in Total Points in the group. Kitan Oladapo finished 2nd among Pac-12 safeties (behind fellow 1st-teamer Bullock) in Pass Coverage Total Points last season. Lastly, UNLV transfer Nohl Williams allowed a QB Rating Against of just 35.3 when targeted last season.

A couple of noteworthy mentions are Casey Rogers and Christian Roland-Wallace, who were both strongly considered for the all-conference team.

Specialists

Position	Name	School
K	Joshua Karty	Stanford
P	Eddie Czaplicki	USC
Returner	Anthony Gould	Oregon State

Joshua Karty went a perfect 18-for-18 on field goals last season, including 3-for-3 on 50+ yarders. Eddie Czaplicki had an impressive average of 45.9 yards per punt with a long of 75. Our last specialist spot goes to Anthony Gould who was 1 of 5 FBS players with multiple punt return touchdowns last season.

July 13, 2023

2023 SIS Preseason Mountain West All-Conference Team

You can learn more about Total Points and the statistics referenced here.

Offense

Position	Name	School
QB	Chevan Cordeiro	San Jose State
RB	John Lee Eldridge III	Air Force
WR	Tory Horton	Colorado State
WR	Terrell Vaughn	Utah State
TE	Caleb Rillos	Air Force
FLEX	George Holani	Boise State
OT	Adam Karas	Air Force
OT	Jacob Spomer	Fresno State
OG	Cade Bennett	San Diego State
OG	Mose Vavao	Fresno State
OC	Thor Paglialong	Air Force

Air Force is heavily featured on this list and with good reason. John Lee Eldridge III was dominant in 2022. While the Air Force offense lends some help to their rushing attack, Eldridge’s 42 Total Points was Top 15 among RBs in the entire FBS last season. Caleb Rillos may not have been much help as a receiver, but his 24 Total Points as a run blocker ranked 2nd among FBS TEs. Thor Paglialong and Adam Karas from Air Force return as the Top 2 Total Points getters per Snap among all OL in the Mountain West (min 300 snaps).

Tory Horton and his 28 receiving Total Points ranked 14th in the country among all WRs. Terrell Vaughn could’ve made the team at WR or Returner, showing versatility in both areas, with 500+ KR yards and a TD as a returner and a 90.2% On-Target Catch Rate as a receiver.

Defense

Position	Name	School
DT	Jordan Bertagnole	Wyoming
DT	Payton Zdroik	Air Force
EDGE	Mohamed Kamara	Colorado State
EDGE	DeVonne Harris	Wyoming
LB	Alec Mock	Air Force
LB	Cody Moon	San Diego State
CB	Cam Lockridge	Fresno State
CB	Dezjhon Malone	San Diego State
S	Jayden Goodwin	Air Force
S	Trey Taylor	Air Force
FLEX	Jaxen Turner	UNLV

The big returner to the MW defense is Mohamed Kamara. His 42 Total Points not only led all front-seven returners in the conference, but his 53 pressures ranked Top 10 and his 18.8% Pressure Rate ranked Top 25 in the country.

Jordan Bertagnole and DeVonne Harris both return to help the Wyoming defense. Bertagnole’s 5.5 sacks and 24 pressures and Harris’s 8 sacks and 36 pressures give Wyoming’s defensive line push from both the interior and around the edge. Cody Moon was a do-it-all player for New Mexico last season, playing significant snaps on the edge, at off-ball LB, and in the slot. He’ll bring his 6.1 Points Above Average as a run defender and 2.3 Points Above Average as a pass rusher to San Diego State in 2023.

Cam Lockridge was lockdown in 2022. His Total Points in pass defense, Total Points per Play, and Points Above Average were all Top 20 among FBS CBs. Jayden Goodwin’s 49 Total Points, which led Mountain West safeties, are impressive as a raw total, but what’s even more impressive is that his overall Points per Play led all FBS safeties and his Points per Play in run defense was 4th-best.

Specialists

Position	Name	School
K	John Hoyland	Wyoming
P	Jack Browning	San Diego State
Returner	Christian Washington	New Mexico

John Hoyland was 21-of-24 in 2022, and his four made FG from 50+ tied for the NCAA lead. Jack Browning made our Honorable Mention All-American team following the 2022 season. As a dual-position guy, he excelled at kicker and punter, but his 21 Total Points as a punter was by far the best in the conference.

While Christian Washington likely plays second fiddle to Terrell Vaughn at the Returner spot, Washington’s reasoning for this honor still holds merit. The true freshman’s 26.7 yards per kick return was best in the conference among all qualified returners, plus he took one to the house.

July 10, 2023

2023 SIS Preseason MAC All-Conference Team

You can learn more about Total Points and the statistics referenced here.

Offense

Position	Name	School
QB	Kurtis Rourke	Ohio
RB	Samson Evans	Eastern Michigan
WR	Sam Wiglusz	Ohio
WR	Tanner Knue	Eastern Michigan
TE	Brady Hunt	Ball State
FLEX	Jacoby Jones	Ohio
OT	Nick Rosi	Toledo
OT	Brian Dooley	Eastern Michigan
OG	Deiyantei Powell-Woods	Central Michigan
OG	Vinny Sciury	Toledo
OC	Parker Titsworth	Ohio

Ohio leads the way in the MAC with four All-Conference players on offense. QB Kurtis Rourke led the MAC in Total Points (79) and Expected Points (85). Rourke’s top weapon, WR Sam Wiglusz, was Top-7 in the nation in touchdowns with 11. Wiglusz and WR Jacoby Jones, finished 2nd and 1st for MAC wide receivers in EPA, with 38 and 44. Add Center Parker Titsworth, and Ohio has a weapon at every level to lead it back to Detroit.

Samson Evans looks to be the top-standard for RB’s in the MAC this year. Evans led the MAC in rushing TDs last year, while also not losing a fumble.. His success also comes with leading the MAC in Expected Points (24). Brian Dooley led EMU’s OL with a 1.9% Blown Block (BB) rate last season.

Two of the top OL come from Toledo; Nick Rosi and Vinny Sciury. Both lineman led the way for Toledo’s MAC championship campaign last year and finished Top-5 in the MAC for Expected Points for OL (minimum 500 snaps) with 36 and 32, respectively. Sciury finished with a Blown Block Rate of 0.7%, and Rosi finished at 1.2%.

Brady Hunt finished 13th in the nation for yards by a TE, while posting a 1.8% Blown Block Rate last season. Deiyantei Powell-Woods, however, led the MAC at 0.7%. Both players look to and lead their respective teams to a possible MAC title.

Defense

Position	Name	School
DT	Daymond Williams	Buffalo
DT	Devonte O’Malley	Northern Illinois
EDGE	Vonnie Watkins	Ohio
EDGE	Corey Suttle	Miami (OH)
LB	Matthew Salopek	Miami (OH)
LB	Cole Pearce	Ball State
CB	Quinyon Mitchell	Toledo
CB	Kempton Shine	Eastern Michigan
S	Trey Jones	Central Michigan
S	Marcus Fuqua	Buffalo
FLEX	Joshua Scott	Eastern Michigan

Last year, Marcus Fuqua led the MAC with 7 interceptions, and was 4th in Coverage Total Points with 35. Fuqua looks to bring his ‘22 form into the ‘23 season. Along the front-line, Buffalo has Daymond Williams to help pressure opposing quarterbacks. Williams finished last year 5th among MAC DTs with 4.5 total sacks. Fuqua and Williams provide Buffalo the groundwork for a top pass defense next season.

Last year, Quinyon Mitchell was 2nd in the nation in passes defensed with 17 and finished tied for 7th with 5 interceptions. As the primary defender, Mitchell limited QBs to a 34.8% completion percentage. Mitchell is the main man for the Rockets pass defense in 2023. Kempton Shine and Joshua Scott finished Top-10 in the MAC for Coverage Total Points (33 and 34, respectively), while being targeted more than 50 times each. With them was Trey Jones from Central Michigan (33 Coverage Total Points).

Matthew Salopek and Cole Pearce finished last season with double digit TFLs. Each stood out as primary pass defenders, limiting receivers to less than 1 yard per coverage snap. Vonnie Watkins, Corey Suttle, and Devonte O’Malley impressed against the pass last year. Watkins was 2nd in the MAC with 31 Hurries, and led with 23 QB hits. Suttle was 10th in the MAC with 6 sacks. And O’Malley provided 5 sacks from the defensive tackle position.

Specialists

Position	Name	School
K	Alex McNulty	Buffalo
P	Mitchell Tomasek	Eastern Michigan
Returner	Keegan Wilburn	Ohio

Keegan Wilburn was the best kick returner in the MAC last year. In ‘22, he returned one kick for a touchdown and finished 2nd in the nation with 734 kick return yards. Alex McNulty finished last year 24-of-28 on FG attempts (4th nationally in FG made) and was 41-of-42 for the Bulls. He should be a consistent weapon for the Bulls in 2023. Last season, Mitchell Tomasek led the MAC with 43.9 yards per punt. Tomasek looks like a real weapon for EMU next season, and will consistently help them with field position all year.

July 6, 2023

Scouts vs Stats: The NFL’s Top Linebackers & Safeties

Over the spring/summer, the SIS R&D staff is convening on the Off the Charts Podcast to talk about their top players at a position. To do this, we pit two methodologies against each other:

The “Scouts,” which comes down to the film-based opinions of Matt Manocherian and Bryce Rossler, each of whom has a lot of experience breaking down film and scouting players (Matt having done it for NFL teams).
The “Stats,” which involves James Weaver and Alex Vigderman devising a ranking based on a suite of metrics, and having that ranking speak for itself.

Officially, Sports Info Solutions does not condone the dichotomy between scouting and statistical analysis. Each of them provides data in their own way and should inform our evaluation of a player.

This week, we decided to do a 2-for-1 special and break down the Top 5 Off-Ball Linebackers and Top 5 Safeties in the NFL. So, without further ado, let’s get into the fun!

Off-Ball Linebackers

Scouts’ Opinion	Statistical Analysis
1. Fred Warner	1. Roquan Smith
2. Roquan Smith	2. Fred Warner
3. Matt Milano	3. Shaquille Leonard
4. Dre Greenlaw	4. Bobby Wagner
5. Demario Davis	5. Matt Milano

The Stats List Methodology

The stats-based ranking includes a three-year recency-weighted average of a player’s results across several different metrics, with the following weights applied to each:

20% Run Defense Total Points
15% Pass Rush Total Points
10% Pass Coverage Total Points
10% Broken+Missed Tackle Allowed %
10% Adjusted Tackle Depth
10% Pressure % Plus Minus
5% Hand On-Ball %
5% Deserved Catch %
5% Targets Per Cover Snap
5% Positive % Allowed Zone Scheme
5% Positive % Allowed Man Scheme

From an off-ball linebackers perspective, the stats team felt that weighting run defense and pass rush more than pass coverage was appropriate when considering Total Points. To indirectly increase the weighting, we included five supplemental metrics with 5% weights that analyzed different aspects of a linebacker’s coverage skills. A player like Matt Milano benefits from including these pass coverage metrics, as he ranked in the Top 10 in Hand On-Ball %, Deserved Catch %, and Positive Play % Allowed Zone Scheme while also ranking 3rd in Pass Coverage Total Points.

Rounding out the rest of the metrics, Adjusted Tackle Depth compares actual tackle depth to the expected tackle depth based on personnel, intended run gap, and the defender’s pre-snap alignment. Hand On-Ball % is the percentage of plays where a defender got their “hand on the ball.” This includes breaking up or intercepting a pass as well as forcing or recovering a fumble. Deserved Catch % is the percentage of targets as the primary defender that the receiver either caught or dropped the ball when the pass was catchable.

What the Stats Showed

Roquan Smith, the leader in the clubhouse on the stats side, finished in the Top 3 in all of the Total Points categories. He also accumulated these numbers without getting his hand on the ball much, ranking 97th.

Fred Warner came in 6th and 7th respectively in Run Defense and Pass Rush Total Points. What propelled him to 2nd was his supplemental metrics. He finished 3rd in Deserved Catch % (1st in Top 5), 7th in Pressure % +/- (2nd in Top 5), and 12th in Targets Per Cover Snap (2nd in Top 5).

Shaq Leonard finished 1st in both Run Defense and Pass Rush Total Points at this position, even with only playing in 3 games all of last year. Unlike Smith, he had his fingerprints all over the football when he played, ranking 2nd in Hand On-Ball %. His pass coverage metrics aren’t anything to write home about, ranking 17th in Pass Coverage Total Points and not any higher than 73rd in the supplemental pass coverage metrics.

What the Scouts Thought

The scouts had Fred Warner as their number 1 and Roquan Smith as their number 2. This was a clear cut decision for both Bryce and Matt, who said that he tried to make this a conversation with Bryce, but ultimately couldn’t argue for Smith ahead of Warner.

In regards to Warner’s pass coverage skills, Bryce is still in awe of the play in the NFC Divisional Game where Warner ran stride for stride with CeeDee Lamb,

“He was 40 yards downfield stride-for-stride with one of the best receivers in the NFL. Nobody else can do that,” Bryce said. “There are corners who can’t even do that.”

On Smith, Matt said

“At the center of your defense, this is someone who will make your entire defense faster.” Bryce added on, “He will hit you and will materialize out of nowhere on a perimeter run and make a tackle. His range is crazy.”

One player that the scouts had on their list that the stats team didn’t was Demario Davis. Matt highlighted his versatility, strength, and tackling ability all as positives. He stated that he isn’t great in pass coverage, but Bryce thought that he has some athletic juice and showed some quality skills. They both credit his pass rushing ability as well as his availability.

Safeties

Scouts’ Opinion	Statistical Analysis
1. Derwin James	1. Grant Delpit
2. Talanoa Hufanga	2. Budda Baker
3. Minkah Fitzpatrick	3. Justin Simmons
4. Budda Baker	4. Minkah Fitzpatrick
5. Antoine Winfield Jr.	5. Talanoa Hufanga

The Stats List Methodology

The stats-based ranking includes a three-year recency-weighted average of a player’s results across several different metrics, with the following weights applied to each:

25% Pass Coverage Total Points
15% Run Defense Total Points
10% Broken+Missed Tackle Allowed %
10% Adjusted Tackle Depth
10% Hand On-Ball %
10% Deserved Catch %
10% Pass Rush Total Points
5% YAC Per Completion
5% Targets Per Cover Snap

The categories here are very similar to off-ball linebackers, with the only differences being the removal of the man Positive %, Zone Positive %, and Pressure % over expectation, while adding in YAC Per Completion. The weights are changed with pass coverage taking over as the most important Total Points category. Run defense is still prominent, and pass rush drops to a 10% weight.

What the Stats Showed

Grant Delpit took the top spot for the stats team. He ranked 2nd in both Run Defense and Pass Rush Total Points as well as 1st in the Top 5 in Adjusted Tackle Depth. He was 17th in Pass Coverage Total Points

Budda Baker came in 2nd, even though he finished 1st in both Run Defense and Pass Rush Total Points. He finished 31st in Pass Coverage Total Points, but was the best in the Top 5 in Targets Per Cover Snap. He only faced 16 targets in 2022 with 526 cover snaps, meaning his impact is known when you try to throw at him.

Talanoa Hufanga cracked the Top 5 with only having meaningful playing time in one season. He ranked 12th in Pass Coverage Total Points, but was 20th and 23rd in Run Defense and Pass Rush, respectively. He ranked the best in the Top 5 in Deserved Catch % as well as YAC Per Completion.

What the Scouts Thought

Coming in No. 1 on the scouts list was Derwin James.

“This is a player who athletically is 1 of 1,” Matt said. “He’s faster than anyone else on this list, he hits like a linebacker, he can guard any tight end.” Bryce continued the praise, “He’s a problem-solving player. You can put him on Kelce. He’s a matchup eraser. He’s a prototype.”

In 3rd, the scouts had Minkah Fitzpatrick. Bryce discussed how good of an athlete he is and how you can ask him to do whatever you need him to do. Matt added that he is as versatile as they come, and that he can play slot, corner, strong, or free safety.

Cracking into the 5th spot was Antoine Winfield Jr. Matt said:

“He plays the game with a sixth sense about him. Just like the Honey Badger.” He continued, “You have to be careful throwing the ball when Antoine Winfield is in the vicinity.”

Want to hear more discussion and debate? Check out this episode of the podcast:

July 3, 2023

2023 SIS Preseason C-USA All-Conference Team

You can learn more about Total Points and the statistics referenced here.

Offense

Position	Name	School
QB	Austin Reed	Western Kentucky
RB	Frank Peasant	Middle Tennessee
WR	Malachi Corley	Western Kentucky
WR	Michael Mathison	Western Kentucky
TE	Jacob Jenkins	Liberty
FLEX	Anwar Lewis	Jacksonville State
OT	X’Zauvea Gadlin	Liberty
OT	Steven Hubbard	UTEP
OG	Quantavious Leslie	Western Kentucky
OG	Vincent Murphy	Western Kentucky
OC	Andrew Meyer	UTEP

The nation’s leader in passing yards in 2022 (4,743 yards) Western Kentucky’s Austin Reed returns to the new look C-USA and is ready to dominate the air once again with his returning receivers Malachi Corley and Michael Mathison.

Middle Tennessee’s RB Frank Peasant leads all returning C-USA backs in 2022 Total Points (24 Total Points) and is T-1st in TDs with 9. Peasant was also 2nd in C-USA in Broken + Missed Tackles on rushing attempts (43) last season and gained 78% of his yards after contact. We also wanted to highlight a newcomer to the conference in Jacksonville State’s RB Anwar Lewis, who brings in a 2022 campaign of 814 passing yards and 8 TD. Liberty TE Jacob Jenkins gets our nod to round out the skill position players.

UTEP is well represented on the offensive line with OT Steven Hubbard and OC Andrew Meyer joining with Liberty OT X’Zauvea Galin. The two highest returning offensive linemen from 2022 are the two Western Kentucky Guards Quantavious Leslie and Vincent Murphy (40 and 37 Total points respectively) who look to continue their dominant performance and anchor down the interior of the Hilltoppers’ line.

Defense

Position	Name	School
DT	Kendy Charles	Liberty
DT	Marley Cook	Middle Tennessee
EDGE	Praise Amaewhule	UTEP
EDGE	JaQues Evans	Western Kentucky
LB	Aakil Washington	Liberty
LB	Tyrice Knight	UTEP
CB	Teldrick Ross	Middle Tennessee
CB	Kobe Singleton	Liberty
CB	AJ Odums	UTEP
S	JoJo Evans Jr.	FIU
S	Tra Fluellen	Middle Tennessee

The secondary looks quite different than our 2022 postseason all-conference team due to graduating players, transfers, and a new-look conference. Middle Tennessee is bringing back Teldrick Ross who led the FBS in Passes Defensed last season with 19, and Tra Fluellen who showed his value as a run defender, collecting 16 Run Defense Total Points. Kobe Singleton, AJ Odums, and JoJo Evans Jr. round out the group, all poised for big seasons.

The top two returning players in Total Points on defense are the UTEP ED Praise Amaewhule and Western Kentucky ED JaQues Evans. Evans finished 2022 T-2nd in the conference in total sacks with 9 and outright 2nd in total pressures with 42. Our other defensive lineman include Liberty’s Kendy Charles and Middle Tennessee’s Marley Cook. Cook led C-USA with an Average Tackle Depth of -1.8 Yards (minimum 10 tackles).

To round out our defensive team we have the Liberty LB Aakil Washington and UTEP LB Tyrice Knight.

Specialists

Position	Name	School
K	Zeke Rankin	Middle Tennessee
P	Tom Ellard	Western Kentucky
Returner	Smoke Harris	Louisiana Tech

Louisiana Tech’s returner Smoke Harris gets the nod here after he finished the 2022 season with 784 total return yards for his contributions on kickoffs and punts. He ranked 3rd in FBS in total yards.

Middle Tennessee’s kicker Zeke Rankin finished 3rd in the conference in FG% (minimum 15 attempts) with an 84.2% rate on 19 total attempts. Western Kentucky’s punter Tom Ellard finished his 2022 campaign with 10 Total Points.

July 3, 2023

2023 SIS Preseason Big 10 All-Conference Team

You can learn more about Total Points and the statistics referenced here.

Offense

Position	Name	School
QB	J.J. McCarthy	Michigan
RB	Blake Corum	Michigan
WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	Ohio State
WR	Emeka Egbuka	Ohio State
TE	Brevyn Spann-Ford	Minnesota
FLEX	Braelon Allen	Wisconsin
OT	Delmar Glaze	Maryland
OT	Olumuyiwa Fashanu	Penn State
OG	Zak Zinter	Michigan
OG	Donovan Jackson	Ohio State
OC	Drake Nugent	Michigan

This year’s Preseason All-Big 10 Offensive Team heavily features the powerhouses of the conference. The Michigan Wolverines lead the way with four representatives on this squad. J.J. McCarthy is the conference leader among returning quarterbacks in Passing Total Points per Play (TP/P) and Blake Corum earned more Rushing Total Points last season than any returning running back in the entire country. Add in two returning starters along the offensive line in Zak Zinter and Drake Nugent (Stanford transfer), and the Wolverines look to have a formidable group coming back this season.

Ohio State is also well represented on this list. Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka ranked first and second respectively among all Big Ten wide receivers in Total Points, and both also ranked top five in the country in this category. Donovan Jackson also finds himself on this list for the Buckeyes after ranking in the top three in Total Points and Total Points per Play amongst Big 10 guards 2022.

Other members of the All-Big 10 Offensive Team include Minnesota’s behemoth tight end Brevyn Spann-Ford, who ranked second amongst conference tight ends in Blocking Total Points, and Wisconsin’s hard-nosed running back Braelon Allen. Maryland’s Delmar Glaze led all Big 10 tackles in Total Points last season and Penn State’s Olumuyima Fashanu, who allowed only 3 blown blocks on more than 500 snaps to go along with 0 holding penalties, rounds out our offensive team.

This team could not quite list all the top talent in the Big Ten, so there are certainly some honorable mentions who are deserving of their shine. Maryland’s Taulia Tagovailoa led the conference in Passing Total Points in 2022. Running back Tre’Veyon Henderson from Ohio State is an electric talent who could have made this list had he not struggled with injuries last season. FInally, Minnesota’s Chuck Filiaga ranked second among Big Ten guards in Total Points a year ago while helping anchor the Golden Gophers’ top-notch run game.

Defense

Position	Name	School
DT	Jer’Zhan Newton	Illinois
DT	Keith Randolph Jr.	Illinois
EDGE	Andre Carter	Indiana
EDGE	J.T. Tuimoloau	Ohio State
LB	Tommy Eichenberg	Ohio State
LB	Maema Njongmeta	Wisconsin
CB	Quinton Newsome	Nebraska
CB	Justin Walley	Minnesota
S	Cooper DeJean	Iowa
S	Tyler Nubin	Minnesota
FLEX	Kalen King	Penn State

On the defensive side of the ball, our team starts in the middle of the defense with a pair of Illini defensive tackles in Jer’Zhan Newton and Keith Randolph Jr., who are the top two returning Pass Rush Total Points leaders among DTs. Ohio State’s J.T. Tuimoloau and Indiana’s Andre Carter (Western Michigan transfer) round out the defensive line group.

As for the linebackers, Ohio State’s Tommy Eichenberg returns to the Buckeye defense after pacing all Big Ten linebackers in Run Defense Total Points by a very wide margin last season. He is joined by Wisconsin’s Maema Njongmeta in our second-level group.

On the back end, notable Gophers Justin Walley and Tyler Nubin earned preseason All-Conference nods along with Nebraska’s Quinton Newsome, Penn State’s Kalen King, and Iowa’s Cooper DeJean, who tied for second in the Big Ten with five interceptions last season.

This list would not be complete without crediting a couple of standout players who did not quite make the group of the top eleven presented. Edge rushers Chop Robinson (Penn State) and Aaron Lewis (Rutgers) will look to improve on 2022 campaigns in which they racked up the top two hurry totals among conference DE’s, respectively. Ohio State’s other linebacker, Steele Chambers, is also a name to watch as he boasts the most Pass Defense Total Points of all returning Big Ten linebackers from last season.

Specialists

Position	Name	School
K	Drew Stevens	Iowa
P	Tory Taylor	Iowa
Returner	Jalin Lucas	Indiana

Our specialist group is headlined by both the kicker and punter from Iowa, Drew Stevens and Tory Taylor. Stevens went 16-of-18 on field goals for a sterling 88.9% success rate last year while also going a perfect 24-of-24 on PATs and Taylor has the highest average and net average in the conference for returning punters. Indiana’s Jalin Lucas was the only FBS player to register two kick return TDs in 2022 (as a true freshman) and is a name to keep an eye on not only in the return game, but as a running back as well.

June 29, 2023