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  • Stat Of The Week: Good To See Alex Gordon On The Hall Of Fame Ballot

    Stat Of The Week: Good To See Alex Gordon On The Hall Of Fame Ballot

    Photo: Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire

    The Hall of Fame ballot came out a few weeks ago and so we’re in for lots of debates and discussions and everything that comes with one of the most polarizing topics in sports.

    This is not a strong ballot when it comes to first-time candidates, with Cole Hamels the best of them and he’s not likely to be elected this year.

    We like to focus on defense here so I want to address someone more likely to get 5 votes from the BBWAA than the 5% needed to stay on the ballot, let alone the 75% needed for induction, and that’s former Kansas City Royals left fielder Alex Gordon.

    Gordon hit .257 with a .748 OPS in a career that spanned 14 seasons, one that began when he was drafted No. 2 overall in 2005 and heralded as one of the game’s top prospects when recalled in 2007.

    Gordon peaked from 2011 to 2014, when he averaged just under 6 bWAR and 156 games played per season. His most memorable moment is a ninth-inning game-tying home run in Game 1 of the 2015 World Series, one the Royals went on to win. He dipped a bit as a hitter in his last five seasons, which cost him 35 points off his career OPS.

    But it’s Gordon the fielder that we want to talk about. He’s the left field overall leader in Defensive Runs Saved dating back to when the stat was first tracked in 2003. He also won 4 Fielding Bible Awards, the most of any left fielder (Steven Kwan has 3 and could catch him next year).

    Most Defensive Runs Saved – Left Field – Since Runs Saved First Tracked In 2003

    Player

    Runs Saved

    Alex Gordon

    117

    Brett Gardner

    101

    Starling Marte

    73

    Carl Crawford

    69

    Steven Kwan

    68

    How did Gordon record that many Runs Saved?

    We have three areas in which players can receive Runs Saved: Range, Outfield Arm, and Good Plays & Defensive Misplays and Errors.

    Gordon finished his career with 40 Range Runs Saved. That’s a decent total. It ranks fifth overall but is well behind the leader, Brett Gardner’s 79. Where Gordon stood out at his position was in both the Outfield Arm and Good Plays & Misplays, as those account for 77 of his Runs Saved.

    Gordon totaled 51 Outfield Arm Runs Saved and also recorded 26 Runs Saved from his balance of Good Plays and Misplays.” Each of those rank No. 1 overall among left fielders.

    Outfield Arm is largely self-explanatory. You get rewarded when baserunners don’t take an extra base on hits, get a spike if you throw someone out, and get penalized if someone goes first to third or second to home. Gordon was known for his arm and earned a lot of value here. (Here’s a refresher in case you forgot)

    Good Plays and Misplays

    I want to spend more time on Good Plays and Misplays. For the last 20-plus years, we’ve been tracking not just highlight-reel catches but also little things like if a fielder cuts a ball off in the gap and prevents a baserunner from advancing.

    Most Good Play/Misplay Runs Saved – Left Fielders

    Player

    Runs Saved

    Alex Gordon

    26

    Jason Bay

    21

    Melky Cabrera

    18

    Starling Marte

    17

    We’ve also tracked times that a fielder does or doesn’t do something that allows a batter to advance an extra base (the fielder gets credit for “holds to double” or “holds to single”). They’re admittedly a judgement call but the judgement is based on careful consideration by our trained group of Data Scouts.

    Gordon had 46 “holds to single” in his career. You can see some examples here, here, and here. An average left fielder who played as much as Gordon did would have been expected to have 31 of them, 15 fewer than Gordon had. The differential translates to about 4.5 Runs Saved.

    Most “Holds To Single” By Left Fielder (2007-2020)

    Player

    Holds To Single

    Alex Gordon

    46

    Daniel Nava

    27

    Raul Ibanez

    26

    Carl Crawford

    26

    Andrew Benintendi

    23

    Matt Holliday

    23

    One of those Defensive Misplay and Error categories is “Mishandling Ball After Safe Hit,” which is something that is sometimes obvious and scored an error and sometimes not scored one. We count both the obvious and not-so-obvious plays.

    In his career, Gordon had 17 instances of “Mishandling Ball After Safe Hit.” An average defender that played as often as Gordon did would have been expected to have 40 such Misplays and Errors.

    The 23-play difference is worth roughly 9.5 Runs Saved, a nice reward for being a careful fielder.

    We’re not here to say that you should be voting for Gordon for the Hall of Fame based on the numbers we’ve shared. He’s not a strong candidate when you consider the totality of what he was as a player. But it is fair to say that he’s one of baseball’s best defensive players of the last 25 years and we enjoy being able to acknowledge him as such.

  • Stat of the Week: Top Defensive Players in Free Agency

    Stat of the Week: Top Defensive Players in Free Agency

    Photo: Terence Lewis/Icon Sportswire

    Admittedly, it’s extremely rare to sign a free agent specifically because of that player’s defensive skills.

    Also admittedly, the 2025-26 free agent market isn’t all that strong as far as good defensive players are concerned.

    Nonetheless, by my measure, there are some players, including some good ones, whose defense is worth noting as a positive as they hit the market this winter.

    Here’s a list of some in alphabetical order by last name.

    Harrison Bader

    Harrison Bader had the most Runs Saved of any free agent this offseason (13), so we’re glad to be leading this list with him. He split time between left field (7 Runs Saved) and center field (6) and has had seasons of 18 and 15 Runs Saved at the latter spot. His specialty is chasing down fly balls. The one downside is that he’ll be 32 in June. No 32-year-old even played 60 games there in 2025, so a split between a corner outfield spot and center field seems inevitable.

     Cody Bellinger

    Cody Bellinger split time between all three outfield spots and had better results within a small sample in both corners (7 Runs Saved in left field, 8 in right field) than he had in center field (-3 Runs Saved) last season.

    Of note, Bellinger had 6 Outfield Arm Runs Saved in 2025. Only Steven Kwan had more among outfielders. Bellinger still has 83rd percentile arm strength per Baseball Savant’s numbers.

    Alex Bregman

    Alex Bregman won a Gold Glove at third base in 2024 and he’s had other seasons of being a finalist there, so his reputation is solid. He’s never put up Ke’Bryan Hayes or Matt Chapman-like numbers at third base but he’s tied for 7th among third basemen in Runs Saved over the last three seasons. Bregman’s floor has usually been that of an average third baseman, so you know he’s someone you generally don’t have to worry about.

    Danny Jansen

    Danny Jansen, a part-time catcher for the Rays and Brewers, had the best defensive WAR (as calculated by Baseball-Reference) of any free agent.

    Jansen had 6 Runs Saved, and that and his dWAR stemmed from his good pitch blocking and stolen base defense. Fair warning, Jansen hasn’t rated well as a pitch framer in each of the last two seasons (pitch framing isn’t factored into dWAR). Though he’s had as many as 12 Runs Saved in a season (2019), he also had -11 in 2024. His pitch blocking numbers have been reliably consistent. The rest of his catching game hasn’t been.

    Ha-Seong Kim

    Ha-Seong Kim passed up a $16 million option to test free agency coming off a season in which he played only 48 games.

    When healthy, Kim has proven to be a very good defensive player. From 2021 to 2023, he saved 46 runs, fourth-most by any player in that time. He’s had as many as 10 Runs Saved at second base and 11 at shortstop. His throws at shortstop are down about 3 MPH from where they were in 2022, likely the result of his Tommy John surgery. His optimal spot may be second base.

    Carlos Santana

    Carlos Santana’s going to have a hard time finding any takers after posting a .633 OPS last season. But if anyone does pick him up, they’ll nab a player who reinvented himself defensively. His 32 Runs Saved over the last three seasons ranks second at first base to Matt Olson.

    (ADDED, NOV. 13) – The other first baseman of note is Ty France, who won an AL Gold Glove last season, a year in which he finished with a career-high 9 Runs Saved. But though France has often looked the part, he’s underperformed in terms of Runs Saved. He had -7 in 2023 and 2024.

    Ranger Suárez

    I’m throwing everyone a curveball here and putting a pitcher in here (one with a very good curveball, by the way) because I think that highly of his defensive work.

    Ranger Suárez ranks first among pitchers with 25 Runs Saved over the last 5 seasons. He led pitchers with 9 Runs Saved in 2022. The 2025 season was actually a substandard year for him, as he had only 3 Runs Saved.

    What I like most about Suárez is that he’s always in a good position to field balls. If anything is hit back up the middle, it’s his. He’s also generally good at limiting stolen bases.

    And by the way, don’t just take our word for it. Listen to the Marlins play-by-play broadcaster, Kyle Sielaff.

    Kyle Tucker

    I debated whether Kyle Tucker merited mention here and I’ll err on the side of inclusion even though he totaled -1 Runs Saved in right field in an injury-hampered year in 2025.

    Tucker’s had as many as 15 Runs Saved in a season, though his totals were spiked by an MLB-best 6 home run robberies in 2022 and 2023, 4 of which came on short right field walls in his home park, Houston, and Boston. Home run robbery totals are tough to predict year-to-year. Though Tucker has a history of getting to balls well, his arm strength is 4 to 5 MPH below that of an average right fielder. There are certain places where that won’t play well.

    In sum, he’s a decent defensive player if healthy, though not necessarily up with the best-skilled right fielders in the game.

    Mike Yastrzemski

    Mike Yastrzemski will be 35 this season and yet you wouldn’t know it from his defense. He’s totaled 37 Runs Saved in seven MLB seasons and has never finished a season with a negative total. He may not be great but he’s consistently been good.

    This season was little different for Yaz in that it was his best one in terms of his Outfield Arm Runs Saved numbers. He had 8 assists from right field without the help of a cutoff man, matching his total from 2022 to 2024 combined. By the way, an odd fact on Yaz: In each of his seven seasons, he’s always been worth at least 2 bWAR but never as much as 3 bWAR.

  • Lessons from a Decade of Strike Zone Runs Saved

    Lessons from a Decade of Strike Zone Runs Saved

    This article was adapted from our presentation at the 2025 Saberseminar conference in Chicago. We are one of the sponsors of the event, and we highly recommend you check it out if you’re interested in baseball analytics!

    Many of you are aware of our catch-all defensive metric, Defensive Runs Saved. One piece of that is our measure of a catcher’s ability to steal strikes, which we call Strike Zone Runs Saved.

    It’s been a little over 10 years since we put it out, so we wanted to take some time to look back at some notable players, umpires, and teams within the context of Strike Zone Runs Saved. We also want to talk about how much the environment has changed in the time since, and what we’re thinking about the metric now.

    Where to find Strike Zone Runs Saved

    If you can find Defensive Runs Saved, you can find Strike Zone Runs Saved, since it’s one of the many components in that overarching metric.

    But if you’re looking for that piece specifically, you can find it in any of these spots:

    Background

    The ability for catchers to steal strikes based on how they receive a pitch became a topic du jour around the turn of the 2010’s. Catcher framing metrics were ascribing 50+ runs per season to the best framers relative to the average, in part because this was a skill that hadn’t been rigorously examined previously.

    Around that time, we at SIS set out to create a metric that not only measured the catcher’s responsibility for a called strike, but everyone involved in the interaction: the umpire, batter, and pitcher as well.

    In 2014 we announced that metric, Strike Zone Runs Saved, to our clients, and in 2015 we presented that research at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. That paper shared the event’s research award that year.

    How the metric works

    At its core, Strike Zone Runs Saved (SZRS) takes the various called balls and strikes in a season and splits responsibility for them between the four people involved: catcher, umpire, pitcher, and batter.

    The core calculation is based on how often strikes are called above/below a calculated expectation, which is based on four factors:

    • Pitch location
    • Ball/Strike count
    • Batter handedness
    • Proximity of the pitch to the catcher’s target (specifically in the left/right direction)

    For each pitch, we give credit for a called strike or ball depending on how likely it was to have been called a strike to begin with.

    For example, a given pitch might be assessed at a 60% expected strike rate given the factors we consider.
    If called a strike we’d attribute 100 – 60 = 40% of a strike across everyone.
    If called a ball we’d attribute 0 – 60 = -60% of a strike across everyone.

    Iterative approach

    The metric follows an approach similar to Jeff Sagarin’s team ratings that have been around for quite a while. The core idea is that we don’t know directly how much of an impact each player/umpire has, but we can observe through a full season of pitches what those people tend to do. From there, we can run the same calculation again with an adjusted assumption, and then our estimates will get a little better. And we can keep doing that until there no longer is much to learn from this process.

    First iteration

    To start, each pitch is treated like the above, where we have an expected called strike rate and we take a plus-minus approach to determine how much credit to apportion.

    In the example above, a called strike with a 60% expected strike rate which would result in +40% of a strike of credit, the value would be split 10-10-10-10 between the four actors involved.

    We do that for every pitch, which results in a measured Extra Strikes Per Pitch (ESPP) for each person over the course of the full season.

    Subsequent iterations

    For every following iteration, we re-run the same set of pitches, but we adjust the calculation to use the ESPP from the previous iteration.

    In that same example, we originally had 40% of a strike of credit to go around. We now subtract out any additional (or reduced) expected called strike rate based on the ESPP of the pitcher, catcher, batter, and umpire involved. If that total was, say, +5%, we’d now have 40 – 5 = 35% credit to go around, and that would now get split evenly among the four actors.

    Then that value gets added to each actor’s ESPP from the previous iteration.

    At the end of each iteration, we check to see if the values are changing much. At a certain point things start to converge on a single set of ratings, and that’s when we stop.

    The result is a value in terms of extra strikes per pitch for each person, which we can then multiply by a computed run value (how many runs it is worth to change a ball to a strike) to get Strike Zone Runs Saved.

    Notables through the years

    Here are some of the leaders and trailers over the 15 full seasons since we started collecting this data.

    Catchers

    Total Runs Saved Leaders

    Yasmani Grandal 87
    Tyler Flowers 85
    Jonathan Lucroy 80
    Russell Martin 72
    Buster Posey 71

    Runs Saved per Season Leaders (minimum 5 seasons)

    Jose Molina 8.4
    Tyler Flowers 7.7
    Russell Martin 7.2
    Yasmani Grandal 6.7
    Miguel Montero 6.6

    Jose Molina, one of the standard bearers of catcher framing value, played only 5 years in this sample, but he made those years count. Yasmani Grandal didn’t have quite that per-season performance, but he has the benefit of having more years of his career in this sample.

    Tyler Flowers is one of those players who people know the name of because of our ability to measure this skill, and you can see why. We talked about it with him for an article a couple years ago, when Defensive Runs Saved turned 20.

    When it comes to guys like Buster Posey who are in the Hall of Fame conversation, ~7 wins of framing value makes a big impact for a player who didn’t play into his mid-to-late thirties.

    Umpires

    Pitcher-friendliest Umpires, SZRS per season

    Doug Eddings 11.5
    Bill Miller 11.0
    Tim Welke 7.4
    Bob Davidson 7.2
    Phil Cuzzi 5.4

    Hitter-friendliest Umpires, SZRS per season

    Paul Schrieber -8.0
    Alfonso Marquez -6.3
    Edwin Moscoso -6.2
    Carlos Torres -5.2
    Gerry Davis -5.2

    You can see that the per-season scale for an umpire isn’t so different from a catcher.

    Doug Eddings and Bill Miller have and have had the most pitcher-friendly strike zones in baseball. They’ve largely gone unchanged over the years, and that consistency puts them quite noticeably above the others.

    At the opposite end of things are the umpires with the most hitter-friendly zones. Paul Schrieber’s career only partly overlapped with this stat, but he stands out on a per-year basis. Alfonso Márquez has been known for years to have a smaller strike zone than most of his peers. But the most hitter-friendly umpires don’t stand out quite so much as the large-zone guys.

    One other note about Eddings, Miller, and Márquez is that though these numbers indicate they favor either the pitcher or hitter more than any other umpires, this does not seem to have impacted how they are viewed by the MLB office. They each been given prominent postseason assignments the last few years, including the last two World Series.

    Batters

    Pitcher-friendliest Batters, SZRS per season

    Xander Bogaerts 1.1
    Curtis Granderson 1.0
    Alcides Escober 0.9
    Hunter Pence 0.9
    Luis Garcia Jr. 0.8

    Hitter-friendliest Batters, SZRS per season

    Dustin Pedroia -1.7
    Rhys Hoskins -1.5
    Carlos Santana -1.4
    Ryan McMahon -1.3
    Yadier Molina -1.3

    Here’s where Strike Zone Runs Saved gets more interesting, because we start talking about players that aren’t part of the typical framing conversation.

    The scale for batters isn’t mind-blowing, just a run per season at the extremes. And that’s not shocking, considering there isn’t some obvious direct mechanism by which the batter might influence a strike call, other than maybe how close he stands to the plate.

    But if we take a little bit of a step back, we start to find some signal.

    Looking at the top 20 names on each list, less than half of the pitcher-friendly category were above average by wRC+ in that timespan. All but one player from the hitter-friendly category was an above average hitter. So there appears to be some kind of reputation effect at play.

    Additionally, 6 of the top 30 players in terms of getting hitter-friendly calls were themselves catchers.

    You often hear about catchers not wanting to get into a tiff with an umpire when they’re batting because they want to get good calls as a catcher, but they seem to get a little bit of favoritism regardless.

    Pitchers

    Pitcher-friendliest Pitchers, SZRS per season

    Kyle Lohse 1.7
    Ryan Vogelsong 1.7
    Hiroki Kuroda 1.4
    R.A. Dickey 1.2
    Jon Lester 1.1

    Hitter-friendliest Pitchers, SZRS per season

    Framber Valdez -1.4
    Zack Wheeler -1.3
    Justin Masterson -1.0
    Anibal Sanchez -0.9
    Yusei Kikuchi -0.9

    In terms of pitchers, we see a similar scale to that of hitters.

    R.A. Dickey’s presence on either end of this spectrum would not have surprised anyone. The knuckleball giveth and taketh away in terms of how catchers and umpires handle it, but in his case it might have giveth just a bit more. We’re accounting for the extent to which the catcher had to adjust to catch the pitch, which would have been the obvious mechanism by which Dickey might have gotten a raw deal.

    That Framber Valdez and Zack Wheeler are still succeeding in spite of having arguably the least pitcher-friendly strike zone is illustrative of their success with ground balls and missed swings, respectively.

    Otherwise, we’re not sure what to make of these lists. There’s some indication that current pitchers might be getting a little less credit. The calculation of Strike Zone Runs Saved uses a rolling two-year window, so slight changes to rules are accounted for, but it isn’t going to move immediately when guidelines change.

    Teams

    We looked at teams two ways:

    • How well do they produce homegrown catcher framing talent?
    • Do catchers they acquire from other teams improve their framing upon arriving?

    (Both of the below tables are in terms of Runs Saved per 1,400 innings, about a full season.)

    Best teams at producing homegrown catchers

    Brewers 18.2 runs, 4 players
    Angels 9.6 runs, 10 players
    Giants 8.9 runs, 8 players
    Mets 7.9 runs, 8 players
    Mariners 7.6 runs, 8 players

    Best teams at improving the framing of acquisitions
    (using a two-year average before and after to smooth out small sample defense stuff)

    Brewers 14.3 runs, 5 players
    DBacks 7.3 runs, 8 players
    Padres 5.4 runs, 5 players
    Braves 1.2 runs, 8 players

    Bringing up a successful player from your system might just be about the player’s talent, and we have a hard time teasing out those elements.

    The Brewers could have been a great example of that, with Jonathan Lucroy’s early career dominance carrying them. However, they’re still at the top of the acquisitions leaderboard thanks to the success of Victor Caratini, Omar Narvaez, and William Contreras after they entered the organization.

    We should also give credit to the Angels, who had strong production with more homegrown catchers (10 compared to 8 for any other leader).

    Over this span three teams set themselves apart in how much improvement their acquisitions showed. Players acquired by the Brewers, Diamondbacks, and Padres over this decade averaged improving by at least 5 runs saved per full season. 

    The Rangers have clearly devalued this skill within their organization, because they ranked last for their acquisitions and third-to-last for their homegrown players.

    Current work

    Command Charting via Computer Vision

    For over a decade we’ve had a product called Command Charting, which involves our scouts plotting the catcher’s target for the pitch. The goal is to measure how well a pitcher hits that target. This data has the secondary benefit of being used for Strike Zone Runs Saved, because called strike rate is modulated by how much the catcher had to adjust to receive the pitch.

    Over the last couple years we have used Computer Vision technology to expand this product to lower levels of play (minors and college). The model is trained using our manually-charted pitch locations off broadcast video, with a predicted catcher location and confidence intervals. Sufficiently-confident catcher target positions make it into our downstream data pipelines.

    This expansion of our toolkit allows us to build a version of Strike Zone Runs Saved in lower levels that doesn’t have to compromise by leaving out some elements of the calculation.

    Simple diagram of the process of creating catcher glove charting from computer vision. Three parts: video, machine learning model, predicted output with confidence range.

    Minor League Strike Zone Runs Saved

    Right now we’re testing out the minor league version of Strike Zone Runs Saved with catcher charting incorporated.

    The key thing to validate first is whether the distance to the catcher’s target changes the expected strike rate for a pitch.

    What we can see here is that, similar to the major leagues, missing the target in the horizontal direction has a meaningful impact on called strike rate, especially when it comes to big misses or dead-on hits. This effect is less extreme than we observe for the majors, but the directionality is the same.

    Strike rate vs. average, by target miss quartile:

    Vertical Horizontal
    Closest: +0.4% Closest: +1.4%
    Close: -0.1% Close: -0.1%
    Far: -0.1% Far: -0.7%
    Farthest: -0.4% Farthest: -2.7%
  • Stat of the Week: No. 1 MLB Prospect Konnor Griffin Is A Defensive Standout

    Stat of the Week: No. 1 MLB Prospect Konnor Griffin Is A Defensive Standout

    Photo:Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire

    BY MARK SIMON

    Each of the top six players on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 Prospects list has shortstop as either their sole position or the position they spend the most time playing.

    No. 1 overall prospect Konnor Griffin of the Pirates’ Double-A affiliate in Altoona stands out from the others not just because he’s hitting .330 with 16 home runs and 64 stolen bases this season. Griffin’s defensive game also separates him from the rest of the group.

    SIS tracks Defensive Runs Saved in the minor leagues in addition to the major leagues, NPB, and KBO. We judge minor leaguers using major league out probabilities and as a result of that, most minor leaguers have negative Runs Saved totals.

    But the 19-year-old Griffin is a special case. His 7 Runs Saved at shortstop this season has been surpassed by only one player at the position, Maximo Acosta, who has 8 and was just called up to the majors by the Marlins.

    Here’s how Griffin compares within the top six overall prospects in Runs Saved as a shortstop.

    Defensive Runs Saved As Shortstop – Top 6 Minor League Prospects

    Player Organization Runs Saved
    Konnor Griffin Pirates 7
    Kevin McGonigle Tigers -2
    JJ Wetherholt Cardinals -2
    Sebastian Walcott Rangers -4
    Jesus Made Brewers -6
    Leo De Vries Athletics -15

    Griffin was a guest on this week’s Sports Info Solutions Baseball Podcast with me this week. At 6-foot-4 he’s big for a shortstop, but he likes to attack ground balls and field them one-handed. He models his defensive game after Bobby Witt Jr.

    “Being aggressive is the best advice I’ve had,” Griffin said. “I would just kind of wait back and in this game you gotta go get it and, you gotta make good throws because the runners are fast and the game speeds up at each level.”

    Griffin can get it done at other positions too. He sees himself as a shortstop first and center field as a tool in his toolbox. He has 0 Runs Saved in a handful of innings in center but it looks like a good tool. Take a look at the catch he made as a center fielder against Anthony Volpe in spring training.

    “That was a moment I’ll remember forever,” Griffin said. “I was 18 then and [my teammates] saw a kid playing among men. They were excited any time I did anything.”

    For now, Griffin is in Double-A, but given how he’s playing and his quick ascent, it’s looking like there will be plenty more celebrating of what Griffin can do in the near future.

    You can listen to our interview with Konnor Griffin here.

  • Defensive Trouble Spots For Contenders

    Defensive Trouble Spots For Contenders

    As we head down the stretch of the 2025 season, individual plays become magnified both for good and for bad, and that’s true on the defensive side too. A lot of the teams contending for division leads and playoff spots are good defensive teams at most positions. But that’s not the case everywhere. Some defensive players may cause their teams considerable angst.

    We had a few to pick from when we considered the teams with the biggest defensive concerns over the final six-plus weeks of the season, but we landed on these three.

     Astros stolen base defense

    The Astros have gotten -25 Runs Saved from their pitcher and catcher defense this season, the worst combined total in MLB. Most of that has come on stolen bases. They’ve allowed the second-most in the majors (124) and have the second-lowest caught stealing rate (13%). Yainer Diaz has caught only 8 of 84 and Victor Caratini—who has caught 5 of 53— ranks among the catchers with the slowest throws to second base, . Neither rates well in our pitch framing stat, Strike Zone Runs Saved, either.

    The bullpen is as much on the hook for this as the starting pitchers. Astros relievers have allowed 53 steals in 58 attempts, with Bennett Sousa, Bryan Abreu, and Steven Okert yielding 27 stolen bases in 28 tries.

    Houston has other issues. Second base and left field can be patched up by moving Jose Altuve to DH (which they’ve done). First base has been rough this year but Christian Walker has a long track record of success. The stolen base one is a tougher one to fix.

    Most Stolen Bases Allowed – 2025 Season

    Team Stolen Bases
    Marlins 144
    Astros 124
    Rays 117
    Braves 109
    White Sox 106

    Blue Jays shortstop and right field

    The Blue Jays are a very good defensive team but they have two problematic spots.

    At shortstop, only one player has fewer Runs Saved than Bo Bichette’s -10. Bichette’s range doesn’t rate well, relative to other shortstops, going to either his left or his right. But this is a situation where a lineup change isn’t going to happen. Bichette leads the American League in both hits and at-bats. He plays every day and the Blue Jays are going to have to hope he outhits his mistakes.

     Right field is more manageable with Nathan Lukes (9 Runs Saved in 71 career games there) a clearcut best defensive option though Addison Barger is the better hitter (but has -6 Runs Saved in 43 games this year). 

    Phillies right field and double play turning

    It is 100% true that Nick Castellanos has not made an error this season. However, that doesn’t show how he doesn’t get to as many balls as other right fielders do, and he doesn’t do as well at limiting baserunner advancement as others do.

    Defensive Runs Saved measures that and it rates Castellanos poorly. He’s last among right fielders with -13 Runs Saved and he ranks last at the position over the last three seasons too (-33). It’s a combination of balls eluding him that others have made plays on and too much baserunner advancement on the hits he’s fielded.

    Castellanos is in the middle of his ninth straight season with negative Runs Saved.

    Now, I watched the 2022 postseason and saw Castellanos make some terrific plays, and it’s entirely possible that in a small sample, he could play great defense. These things happen. One case I usually cite is that Al Weis had a sub-.600 OPS for his career but went 5-for-11 with a home run in the 1969 World Series for the Miracle Mets. Would I have counted on him to replicate that? No. I’d say the same for Castellanos on defense.

    There’s another thing that could come back and bite the Phillies. They’re on track to rank last in MLB in our Double Play Runs Saved stat for the third straight season.

    This stat measures not just the number of double plays turned, but the number turned when an infielder touched a batted ball in a double play situation. Neither shortstop Trea Turner nor second baseman Bryson Stott has fared well at this over an extended period of time and it’s something that could burn the Phillies in a big moment.

    Phillies Middle Infield – Last 3 Seasons

    Player DP Success Rate MLB Avg

    (Position)

    		 Rank

    (Position)
    2B – Bryson Stott 52% 62% Last
    SS – Trea Turner 51% 63% Last

     

  • July’s MLB Defensive Players of the Month

    July’s MLB Defensive Players of the Month

    There was a time not too long ago when it looked like Adolis García could get moved at the trade deadline. But now that the Rangers are winning, even though García isn’t hitting as well as he might like, his defensive value would be tough to lose.

    García was one of three players named Sports Info Solutions Defensive Player of the Month for July along with Marlins shortstop Otto López and Mets catcher Luis Torrens.

    García earned his second such honor this season (he also won it in May) on the strength of a period in which he saved 8 runs, more than anyone else in MLB and 3 more than any right fielder.

    García leads all right fielders with 17 Runs Saved this season. His single-season high at the position is 15 in 2021. Last season he had his worst defensive year, totaling -5 Runs Saved. But that, like the trade rumors, is well in the past.

    In addition to a bevvy of impressive catches, García has 6 Runs Saved from his outfield arm. He’s allowed only 38% of runners to advance an extra base on balls he’s fielded. The major league average is 50%, which comes out to about 11 “runner holds” better than the average player given the number of opportunities he’s had.

    This is not to say that García doesn’t come without risk. He had 7 Defensive Misplays & Errors in July, which also led right fielders, but we’ve deemed the risk is worth the reward here. He’ll be a strong candidate for a Fielding Bible Award at year’s end.

    —

    The Marlins made a position swap in mid-May, moving López to shortstop when Xavier Edwards got hurt. Edwards subsequently moved to López’s old position, second base upon his return and there’s been a very nice defensive payoff.

    López tied for the MLB lead with 5 Runs Saved at shortstop and is now 5th among shortstops with 6 Runs Saved this season. He had played a stellar second base last season and had no problem in a different spot. When López was in the minor leagues, he played shortstop, second base and the outfield about equally, so he’s used to moving.

    Our Data Scouts track “Good Fielding Plays” which are the kind of plays you’d see on a highlight reel but also little things like keeping a ball on the infield to prevent baserunner advancement. López has 9 Good Fielding Plays in 59 games at shortstop. Edwards had only 1 in 41 games prior to the switch.

    For his part, Edwards had 3 Runs Saved at second base in July and he’s 4th among second basemen with 6 Runs Saved after tallying -3 at shortstop. The move worked for him too.

    July was a good example of that. The Marlins ranked 5th in MLB in how often they turned a grounder or bunt into an out (76.4% of the time). The team allowed an MLB low 73 runs in 25 games for the month. No other team allowed fewer than 80.

    —

    Torrens was elevated to the regular starting role when Francisco Alvarez was demoted and recently returned to backup duties when Alvarez returned.

    Undaunted by that, he had a terrific defensive month, with his most notable accomplishment being catching 6 of 9 would-be basestealers. Torrens has perfected making throws to the first base side of second base so that the shortstop can reach to catch the throw and tag the runner at the same time (here’s an example).

    Torrens finished July with 5 Runs Saved, most among catchers despite finishing tied for 19th in innings caught.

    Torrens caught 46% of runners trying to steal last season and is at 44% in 2025. The MLB rate specific to catchers is 19%.

    —

    Honorable mention to a pair of players who got dealt at the trade deadline. Harrison Bader, who led left fielders with 5 Runs Saved in July, heads from the Twins to the Phillies, who rank 28th in Runs Saved this season. Bader could play any outfield spot for them and be respectable.

    Ke’Bryan Hayes co-led all third basemen in July with 5 Runs Saved and is the runaway leader at the position for the season with 16. He’ll be well received by the Reds, who haven’t gotten positive Runs Saved at that position since the 2017 season.

    Defensive Players of the Month

    April – Harrison Bader and Pete Crow-Armstrong

    May – Adolis García, Taylor Walls, Pedro Pages

    June – Julio Rodriguez, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Mookie Betts

    July – Adolis García, Otto López, Luis Torrens

  • Appreciating Steven Kwan’s Defense, Wherever He Ends Up

    Appreciating Steven Kwan’s Defense, Wherever He Ends Up

    Photo: Keith Gillett/Icon Presswire

    Whatever team Steven Kwan plays for on August 1, this much is true: Kwan is a terrific defensive left fielder.

    Kwan leads all left fielders with 13 Defensive Runs Saved this season. The next-closest player has 8. He’s probably going to lead the position in Runs Saved for the third time in his four MLB seasons. The year he didn’t lead was 2024 when he finished third.

    Most Defensive Runs Saved – LF in 2025

    Name Team Runs Saved
    Steven Kwan Guardians 13
    Harrison Bader Twins 8
    Wyatt Langford Rangers 8
    Ian Happ Cubs 7
    Tommy Pham Pirates 7

    Over the last four seasons, Kwan has 59 Runs Saved. The next-closest player is Ian Happ with 31. The only position with a bigger gap between No. 1 and No. 2 is third base where Ke’Bryan Hayes has a 30-run edge over Ryan McMahon. And though Kwan has played the second-most innings of anyone there, he crushes others who play the position often.

    Most Innings Played – LF – Last 4 Seasons

    Player Innings (DRS)
    Ian Happ 4,648 (31)
    Steven Kwan 4,224 (59)
    Randy Arozarena 4,211 (-10)
    Andrew Benintendi 3,677 (-20
    Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 3,554 (12)
    Jurickson Profar 3,447 (-25)

    Kwan has good range numbers this season, though they’re not the best at the position. Where he’s differentiated himself from others is in his throws. He leads left fielders with 7 assists without the help of a cutoff man (among his 9 assists overall). Those impact both his outfield arm stats and what we refer to as his “Good Fielding Play Runs Saved.”

    Additionally, Kwan has been credited for 5 instances in which he held a batter to a single by getting to a ball quickly or playing a ball off the wall well. As was said on a Guardians broadcast- he plays the left field wall “like he built it.” That play is something our Data Scouts do via video review and is a component of his Runs Saved. He’s tied for the MLB lead with Jarren Duran for such plays.   

    We should point out too that Kwan doesn’t have the strongest arm among left fielders. He averages 87 MPH on the top 10% of his throws, which is right around average at the position.  

    But he knows what he’s doing out there, as evidenced by the play above and these too.

     

    And this

    As such, Kwan has 8 Runs Saved from the combination of outfield throws and all of his Good Fielding Plays. Duran ranks second with 4 Runs Saved. The players ahead of Kwan in Range Runs Saved, Wyatt Langford, Harrison Bader, and Isaac Collins, have -1, 1, and -2 Runs Saved for things outside of their range, respectively.

    The Guardians have maximized the value they’ve gotten from Kwan in the nearly four seasons he’s been with the team. His 16 WAR is higher than all but one player taken in the first round of the 2018 MLB Draft (in which Kwan went in the 5th round). The only player to top him from that group is another great defender, Nico Hoerner (just shy of 20 WAR). 

    There’s a lot to like about Kwan beyond his glove given that he usually hits for a high average, rarely strikes out, and can steal a base. The defense is one component in what is a pretty complete player.

    Kwan has reportedly been coveted by teams like the Dodgers and Blue Jays. With the Dodgers, he’d be filling a defensive need. The team has gotten a combined -7 Runs Saved from its left fielders. With the Blue Jays, it would be a case of the rich getting richer (they already have one of the top center fielders in Myles Straw). 

    Whoever he’s playing for, we suspect they’re going to be pretty happy with what they got.

  • MLB Draft Scouting Report: Gage Wood (Phillies)

    MLB Draft Scouting Report: Gage Wood (Phillies)

    Photo: Andy Altenburger/Icon Sportswire

    MLB Draft Scouting Report: Gage Wood

    Skill Grade
    RHP
    Fastball 70
    Cutter/Slider 55
    Curveball 60
    Splitter 50
    Control/Command 50/50
    Future Value 55+

     Name: Gage Wood

    College: University of Arkansas

    Bio: R/R 6-0, 205 lbs.

    DOB: 12/15/2003

    Written by Brandon Tew

     Analysis:

    Gage Wood arguably has the loudest stuff in the entire college draft class. His arsenal is a noisy and brash heavy metal band. He stares with laser focus towards the batter, giving off angry vibes. “Here’s my fiery fastball and buzzsaw curveball, try to hit it…”

    Add in a cutter/slider that is hard with good shape, and you have the makings of three distinct offerings and an aggressive pitcher that knows he has overpowering stuff.

    If Wood succeeds in MLB he will continue to wield an ultra-productive fastball to pair with a big breaking pitch that he can throw in the mid-80s with a downer shape. He’ll do this all while throwing strikes and keeping the ball out of the heart of the plate as he refines his command.

    If Wood hits a snag, it will be possible for him to sustain further injuries. Shoulder injuries can be complex.

    Or he’ll lack true command of his fastball and curve, with no viable, consistent armside pitch to keep hitters honest and never gets a feel or command for the splitter that he rarely threw in 2025, but has been tinkering with.

     College Career:

    In Wood’s first two seasons in Fayetteville, he was a power reliever. After making the transition to the rotation, he had some bad luck, as he was removed from an outing in February against Michigan with a shoulder impingement.

    The Razorbacks shut down Wood until mid-April limiting him to just 10 uneven starts and pitch counts and just 37 ⅔ innings. Wood’s powerful arsenal was on display late in the season when he twirled a 19-strikeout no-hitter vs Murray State in an elimination game at the  College World Series.

    I’m not sure if it was ever a discussion to take the ball out of Wood’s hands, but I would venture to guess he would have told anyone who asked that it was his game and his ball.

     

    Year ERA IP K% BB%
    2023 4.80 30 30% 16%
    2024 4.46 40 1/3 32% 5%
    2025 3.82 37 2/3 46% 5%

     

    Pitching Mechanics:

     

    Out of the windup, Wood starts with his lower half fully turned to face third base. He rotates his upper body to have his glove in front of his face as he peers over the top.

    He steps with his left foot to first base and rocks back, dropping his glove to his stomach. He smoothly brings his leg up to his glove during the leg lift, and as he does so, he counter-rotates his hips, creating momentum forward.

    As he drives his front hip to the plate, he straightens out his lead leg with his toe pointed up to the sky at about a 45-degree angle made with his leg and left foot.

    He holds himself in a close position down the mound as he enters a front-foot strike. He’s smooth getting down the mound, but has a fast arm action as he goes to land.

    With his right arm flipped up around a 45-degree angle, you can see the scap retraction in his throwing shoulder as he enters a power position with his chest and weight leaning into his front foot.

    Finishing with his chest out over his knee, he transfers energy through a lead leg block that drives force up to his throwing arm. He usually recoils his arm quickly in a brief motion. He brings it back to his body quickly after ball release, as his leg swings through in a straightened position.

    One quirk in Wood’s delivery is that he pats the ball throughout his move into hand brake, almost using it as a method of rhythm to keep him on tempo throughout the delivery.

    Wood moved over to the extreme first base side for the Murray State no-hitter, which is likely due to the angles.

    Gage Wood positioning on pitching rubber:

    2 images. On the left, Wood stands with his feet in the center of the pitching rubber. On the right, he stands with his feet on the 3rd base side of the rubber.

    Arsenal:

    4s: 95-97 mph avg, 17” IVB, 10” Arm-side | Release: 5.5’

    Wood throws his four-seam with giddyup behind it, and the ball has good carry through the top of the zone. From a lower release height, the ball zooms past hitters, and he squeezes the pitch hard.

    He has a slight supination bias, meaning he throws the ball with a slight cut at times. Still, on the four-seam, he tries to stay behind the ball and rip down on the seams to create backspin, which he does pretty well based on how his fingers align on the ball in his grip and how they interact at release.

    Against either handedness, his catcher sets up the middle of the plate, up or down—his locations on the fastball against right-handed hitters are slightly more to the top shelf. While against left-handed hitters, Wood’s fastball command was more middle shelf in the zone.

    He was highly aggressive in the zone with his fastball, running an above-average heart-of-the-plate percentage this season, although it was a smaller sample. Arkansas wanted Wood in the zone and with good reason, as he ran a 32% zone-whiff rate on the pitch against righties and a 46% zone-whiff rate versus lefties.

    The pitch, with a flat vertical approach angle of around -4.1, completely obliterates hitters as they swing underneath it. If Wood can continue to refine his command to more average or maybe even above-average at best, he can start to punish hitters at the top rail, leaning into the excellent traits of the pitch that already exist.

    He gets the ball up, but it will start to be scary for hitters if he can throw fastballs away and then work the pitch up with two strikes. That’s when he can start changing eye levels with that pitch.

    Here are some fastball stats from Wood’s 19-strikeout no-hitter:

     

    Curveball: 82-85 mph avg, -16” IVB, 11” Sweep

    The curve is a banger pitch, and his teammates have aptly named it the banger as well. The pitch is at times a hard vertical snap dragon at 83-85 mph. He can also get more to the side of the ball and create some more sweep on the pitch if needed.

    This manipulation is intriguing and could help him continue to throw it to both right-handed and left-handed hitters. Either way, the pitch with so much depth at that velocity is hard to come by even in MLB. If the pitch tightens up a bit, it should still perform inside of his arsenal.

    It becomes a guessing game when Wood is blazing heaters by a hitter and then rips off a massive breaker out of the high fastball tunnel. In terms of usage, Wood is a two-pitch pitcher with a double-plus fastball and a plus curveball. Maybe he pushes the velocity more to 85-87 mph, and the break is shorter; it could be a double-plus breaker if he starts to have more command.

    With a big spike on his grip, Wood gets to the front of the baseball with intent better than most, creating hard topspin, producing a gnarly curveball because of it.

    Cutter: 87-91 mph avg, 2” IVB, 4” Sweep

    Wood’s Cutter lives in the slider range, and he doesn’t love the pitch, but it has some decent shape to it, and he throws it pretty hard. The problem is that Wood has a tiny sample size of just about 50 cutters thrown this season.

    With 95% of those thrown to right-handed hitters, it became a wrinkle pitch for Wood against right-handed hitters. There’s hope that Wood can probably add some distinct glove-side breakers to his arsenal, given his little bit of supination bias, which should help him get to the side of the ball better to create spin.

    Any version of a gyro slider and cutter at a hard velocity to pair with a possible sweeper could be enticing to the Phillies—a team that promotes a deeper arsenal and cutter usage, in the Majors, and in some of their pitching prospects as well.

    Splitter: 86-90 mph  Specs: 8” IVB, 11” Arm-side

    With only 14 splitters, all thrown to opposite-handed hitters, the pitch just was not thrown much to assess. He does throw the pitch hard and also kills spin on it. Overall, Wood should be able to possess some type of average to fringe-average offspeed pitch.

    Here are the grips on the splitter:

    Wood's first 2 fingers are split as wide as they can be spread on the baseballAdding in a seam-shifted two-seam to push righties off the plate would be nice as well. Perhaps even a traditional sinker, even if of poor quality, could help moderate the four-seam usage a bit.

    The addition of either a somewhat reliable offspeed pitch or multiple glove-side harder breakers like a cutter and/or sweeper will provide value for Wood.

    Projection:

    Wood is a high-ceiling right-handed pitcher with a fastball and curveball pairing that tunnels beautifully. Developing some type of armside pitch will benefit his growth more than anything, and it will be intriguing to see what the Phillies focus on in his development early in pro ball.

    Wood has some questions about the extent of his workload in college. He’s also a smaller pitcher in terms of stature, and while you do have to factor in durability and injury risk.

    From a pure pitch shape and stuff standpoint, Wood has the possible best two-pitch combo in the draft and the foundational building blocks of a mid-rotation starter with some massive upside.

    There’s risk and variance in the profile and some reliever risk if the command backs up, but he’s as talented as any pitcher in this draft and a competitive menace on the mound.

     

    Aesthetics Comp: Hunter Brown (Similar Arsenal Characteristics)

  • MLB Draft Scouting Report: Kyson Witherspoon

    MLB Draft Scouting Report: Kyson Witherspoon

    MLB Draft Scouting Report:

    Kyson Witherspoon

    Skill Grade
    RHP
    Fastball 60
    Slider 55
    Curveball 55
    Cutter 55
    Changeup/Splitter 50
    Control/Command 50/50
    Future Value 50

    Name: Kyson Witherspoon

    College: University of Oklahoma

    Bio: R/R 6-2, 206 lbs.

    DOB: 08/12/2004

    Written by Brandon Tew

    Analysis:

    Kyson Witherspoon is a compact, explosive mover on the mound. With a short extension that doesn’t even reach 6 feet and a short stabby arm path, Witherspoon has some deception and unconventional mechanics with enough strike throwing ability. 

    He has nice shapes on his pitches, including a high velocity cut-ride fastball and a big curveball. Teams will view him as a project they can mold into a starting pitcher, potentially with a deeper and expanded pitch mix than he currently has.

    If Witherspoon succeeds in MLB, it will be by harnessing his explosive movements to command more of his pitches to both sides of the plate while also deepening his arsenal to include multiple distinct glove-side breaking balls and a solid offspeed pitch.

    Witherspoon might run into some trouble in pro ball if he has more fringe-average command. In that case, he will likely be seen as more of a reliever with solid pitches, capable of producing in a bullpen due to his average control; however, not enough stuff to pitch multiple times through the order. 

     College Career:

    After transferring from Northwest Florida State College, Witherspoon was a solid contributor in 2024, striking out 90 hitters in 80 innings. It came with some walks at an 11% walk rate and 40 walks surrendered.

    Fast-forward to 2025, and Witherspoon was one of the most consistent Friday starters in the SEC, cutting his walk rate down while upping his strikeout rate. The improvement in command comes from more comfort in his delivery, but there’s still some upside in terms of commanding the ball even better.

    Year ERA IP K% BB%
    2024 3.71 80 25% 11%
    2025 2.65 95 32% 6%

    Pitching Mechanics:

    Witherspoon pitches exclusively out of the stretch, starting on the 3rd base side of the rubber. As he reaches peak leg lift, he begins to drift down the mound with his front hip significantly.

    As the glove gets to the side of his ear, there’s a bit of counter-rotation created in the drift forward. As he comes out of the leg lift, he tilts his trunk and posture backwards as his hands break at shoulder height.

    Witherspoon then has a bit of jerkiness to him as he stabs his arm downward to get to his arm path. As he sinks into his back hip, he almost pushes down the mound, still trying to stay closed into front foot strike.

    He lands heel to toe and creates a nice stretch across his chest in hip-shoulder separation that is solid as his arm flips up into position at front foot strike. At times, he looks rushed down the mound with possible early trunk rotation into landing. 

    He uses his explosive athleticism to transfer energy into the ball with less effort. He’s more of a short strider with a faster tempo down the mound in a more compact manner, but he’s aggressive down the mound in his moves and tempo.

    Arsenal

    4-seam fastball: 95-98 mph avg, Specs: 19” IVB, 7” Arm-side | Release: 5.9’

    Witherspoon throws a power four-seam with some cutting action to it. He will try to elevate the pitch later in counts to put away hitters. Against either handedness, he will throw the pitch with two strikes.

    He had a 24% whiff rate on the pitch this season and around a 20% in-zone whiff rate to both righties and lefties as well. The cut ride nature of the pitch doesn’t allow the ball to carry as much at times. It’s still an above-average shape, and adding in the velocity, and even with the slightly above-average release height, this is still a plus pitch.

    Witherspoon is more control over command right now with his four-seam in particular, and was very aggressive with the pitch. He allowed some damage on fastballs against left-handed hitters, possibly a byproduct of not getting the pitch inside to lefties.

    Also, lefties sat fastball early against him, as he was more likely to throw a four-seam to start an at-bat or down early to left-handed hitters at a higher rate than right-handed hitters.

    Witherspoon uses pent-up energy and emotion to fuel his fastball when he wants to reach back for some more velocity. In big spots when he finished at-bats against hitters with a high-velocity fastball, he would display some of this energy on his way to the dugout.

    Slider: 84-89 mph Specs: 0” IVB, 5” Sweep  

    Cutter: 88-90 mph Specs: 6” IVB, 3” Sweep

    Witherspoon’s cutter and slider would blend in shape and velocity at points this season. The team drafting Witherspoon would likely push his cutter up a little and get higher velocity around 90-92 mph. 

    While the slider would push more toward the depth slider, he would try to throw down and away to right-handed hitters. If he can consistently get the more down shape at around 85-87 mph, he can use the two separate offerings in the same tunnel. 

    Or he can use the slider down in the zone and the cutter more toward the upper part of the zone, especially to left-handed hitters, to keep them off of his four-seam early in counts.

    Witherspoon loved using the cutter and slider down and away from right-handed hitters and leaned on zoning the cutter a bunch. If he can refine the command of these two offerings, especially the slider after reworking the vertical depth of the pitch, he can start to backfoot lefties to move their feet off the plate, opening up the outside of the plate more. 

    His cutter against left-handed hitters also pushes down and in mostly, so being able to get more carry on that pitch could move the location more in on the hands of left-handed hitters rather than around mid-thigh locations.

    With his supination bias, there’s a chance a team will give him a bigger sweeper shape as well. For both handedness, there’s a multitude of routes Witherspoon can take with his pitch mix. If you add a sinker, you can also protect your other pitches on the outer part of the plate by throwing the sinker inside against righties.  

    These tweaks will likely come with how much you want to touch his mechanics, so there’s a threading-the-needle aspect to all of this, but the possible shapes you can get to from a pitch perspective are intriguing based on his current mix and three-quarters arm slot.

    Changeup: 87-91 mph  Specs: 11” IVB, 15” Arm-side 

    (Also tinkered with a Splitter 89-90 mph)

    On the left side, Witherspoon is gripping the pitch with 3 fingers, using much of his hand. On the right side, he's gripping it almost like a split-fingered fastball

    Rather than talking about the current changeup shape, there’s an interesting tidbit I noticed about Witherspoon. He tinkered with his offspeed a lot this season.

    In the first four starts of the season, he threw what looks like a four-seam changeup. Then, going into his start against South Carolina, he switched to a splitter grip.

    He started in the splitter grip for about six starts before changing back to a four-seam changeup against Georgia in April. Then, to end the season based on the video, he went to a two-seam changeup.

    His changeup and splitter were both firm offerings with little drop. An organization will continue to work with him in pro ball and help him find an orientation and grip that adds drop and reduces spin. He had an okay feel for these offerings, but he mostly threw changeups over the splitter he started gripping. He was also tagged on a couple of poorly-executed changeups late in the season, where the pitch just didn’t fade enough and stayed up.

    There’s enough here to get to an average offspeed shape to use versus left-handed hitters, and maybe an even better one with pitching development continuing to improve with offspeed shapes and their usage.

     

    Curveball: 76-80 mph  Specs: -16” IVB, 10” Horizontal

    The curve is a big knuckle curve that Witherspoon deployed in two-strike counts off of his fastball to both left-handed and right-handed hitters. He could throw the pitch below the zone or catch a batter unable to pull the trigger on a pitch dropped into the zone out of the sky.

    The pitch had excellent results both in and out of the zone for whiffs to either platoon, and has the makings of an above-average offering that can neutralize hitters off of Witherspoon’s fastball and harder glove-side pitches.

    If the curve can work against opposite-handed hitters in pro ball, even pushing velocity and intent to make it an even better pitch, this could lessen the impact of not having an average offspeed pitch to keep left-handed hitters honest, more than anything.

    Witherspoon, in general, can feel rushed down the mound, and his release of the curve can come and go from pitch to pitch with some terrible misses.

    He does have overall a feel for the pitch, and his willingness to throw it in two-strike counts to both platoons makes the pitch a valuable piece of the puzzle for him.

     

    Projection:

    Witherspoon has intriguing pitch shapes in his cut ride fastball and breakers. A team will try to refine some pitches and also expand the arsenal, possibly giving him a deeper mix to attack hitters with.

    There is a possibility to get to plus shapes in the slider and fastball, putting him more in a middle rotation spot. As an explosive athlete, there’s also room to get more out of his body, not only from an extension and movement standpoint but also cleaning up his delivery if a team so chooses.

    His success will mainly hinge on maximizing his pitch shapes and either moving well enough in his current delivery as an athletic righthander or making some tweaks to unlock better command of pitches. 

    There’s enough of a floor here to like Witherspoon as more of a back-end bullpen piece. Teams will bet on the upside and molding him into a No.4 Starter with some mid-rotation upside if it all clicks.

    Aesthetics Comp: Zach Plesac (Delivery and arm action)

  • 2025 MLB Draft Scouting Report: Kade Anderson

    2025 MLB Draft Scouting Report: Kade Anderson

     

    Skill Grade
    Throws LHP
    Fastball 55
    Slider 55
    Curveball 55
    Changeup 55
    Control/Command 55/55
    Future Value 55

    Name: Kade Anderson

    College: LSU

    Bio: L/L 6-2, 179 lbs.

    DOB: 07/06/2004

    Written by Brandon Tew

    Analysis:

    Kade Anderson blends a deep arsenal with intensity and guts to bully hitters. Anderson possesses above-average stuff across the board, and while his pitch shapes might not be an outlier, his results speak to just how dominant he was at LSU in 2025. When you lead D1 Baseball in strikeouts with 180, you are performing at a high level throughout the season. He also threw the most innings this season (119)

    If Anderson is successful in MLB, it will be because of his deep pitch mix and command of multiple pitches, overwhelming the zone with above-average stuff.

    If he struggles, it will be due to a lack of fastball production, the opposite of what he displayed in college. Rather than tweaking some things, a team pushes him through levels too quickly.

    College Career:

    Anderson, after an outstanding freshman campaign out of the bullpen, continued to pitch better as the season progressed and into the postseason in 2024. Anderson quickly cemented himself as the ace in Baton Rouge in 2025, demanding the ball and pitching deep into starts as much as possible. He averaged 101 pitches a game over 19 starts. 

    Understanding that he pitches once a week is essential to evaluating this workload, but when Anderson had the ball, he rarely gave it up without pitching deep into the game.

    With a 135-pitch shutout versus Oklahoma in April, Anderson pitched his absolute best on the Friday night stage. He then tossed a 130-pitch shutout in the CWS Finals against Coastal Carolina. Anderson’s performance helped the Tigers win another national title and vaulted him into the conversation as the best pitcher in this draft class.

    Year ERA IP K% BB%
    2024 3.99 38 1/3 34% 12%
    2025 3.18 119 37% 7%

    Pitching Mechanics:

    Anderson has a similar delivery to two left-handers that have been compared in the past from a visual standpoint, Max Fried and Cade Povich. The video below shows all three windups in sequence. Anderson also throws from a fluid arm stroke and a high 3/4 slot, similar to Povich and Fried.

    In a windup, Anderson starts with his glove at the belt, but will move it up to his face as he steps to the side, and he brings the glove back down to his belt. As he begins his leg lift, the glove rises to about chin height.

    As he transitions from peak leg lift, he creates a drift and momentum forward, but with little counter-rotation in his front side. He moves smoothly into landing on the front foot, and his arm swing is smooth, and there’s some deception as he hides the ball well. The arm path is in pattern with the rest of his body, finishing in a good position as his front foot lands.

    He throws with a slightly slower, more controlled tempo, but blocks out his lead leg to transfer energy well. While there is no significant uncoiling or unwinding of energy, his delivery is repeatable. With either added mass or even more powerful moves, Anderson could tap into even more velocity.

    Anderson also plays with angles by moving on the rubber based on handedness, going to the first base side against lefties and the 3rd base side against righties.

    This is an interesting choice considering Anderson primarily pitches to the glove side against lefties. Maybe he’s ok with the move over and farther angle to the outside part of the plate because he cuts his fastball.

    He also could be trying to hide the ball better on his breaking balls against left-handed hitters. It would be interesting to see if a team would decide to have him stay on just one side of the mound.

    Arsenal

     4s: 91-96 mph, Specs: 19” IVB   8” Arm-side | Release: 6′

    Anderson slightly cuts his four-seam fastball, and there’s variance in how he will throw the ball game to game or even in certain pitches in an at-bat. What’s intriguing about Anderson is that when looking at catcher locations for his four-seam fastball, he pushes his intended locations up and away from both left- and right-handed hitters.

    He’s arm-side with the pitch against right-handed hitters and glove side with it against left-handed hitters. As mentioned above, since he moves on the pitching rubber based on handedness, the ball must travel farther and at a different angle to reach both targets.

    Anderson is ultra-aggressive in the zone with the pitch and uses the cut he creates to his advantage, especially against left-handed hitters. He uses the offering in first-pitch situations and two-strike ones at a decent rate to both righties and lefties. 

    He’s able to pick up in-zone whiffs on the pitch at an above-average rate, allowing him to get aggressive not only in the zone but also at the top of the zone. Even if the pitch is more middle-up rather than completely getting to the outside part of the plate, he can still win.

    He will need to continue refining his command of the pitch in specific counts and spots, but a team should continue to have him carry the ball to the top of the zone. The frequency at which he does it might change with the baseballs used in the minors and eventually MLB balls.

    The different ball used in college baseball does impact shape, so it would be wise to point out that Anderson would lose some ride on his fastball once in pro ball. Then, an organization would have to figure out if he can still dominate the top shelf with his fastball and if he can also blow it by professional hitters in the zone at the same rates as well.

    That said, when he smells the finish line of an outing or needs a big pitch, he goes to the fastball and pitches with moxy. He can also reach back for one of two more ticks on the fastball as well, so there’s even hope that he can add velocity in pro ball with a few tweaks.

    Slider: 84-87 mph Specs: -1” IVB, 7” Sweep

    Anderson’s second-most-used pitch to both handedness of hitters is his slider. He uses the pitch 24% of the time against righties and ups it to 35% of the time against lefties. He has a solid feel for zoning the pitch and gets aggressive with locations in the zone early in counts. He throws the slider with a little more depth at times so he can get back-foot with the pitch to right-handed hitters underneath the barrel.

    With a high strike rate on all his secondaries, Anderson loves to use them. What I have noticed is that if Anderson doesn’t like a pitch called from the dugout, he will swipe on his pant leg to make it look like he’s shaking off a pitch to another one. His catcher will then sign in the pitch they want; more often than not, it’s a slider. 

    I saw a couple of curveballs as well, and Anderson only swiped a handful of times. Still, it is interesting to note how much he loves throwing his slider in certain spots and even trusts the pitches’ utility to both left- and right-handed hitters. 

    His command of the pitch can be a little finer, but when he needs to place the pitch in the zone or get it down below the zone or out of it for chase, he can execute this particular pitch better than any other in his arsenal.

    The upside for Anderson is that, if he continues to develop his slider, it will become an above-average pitch that will play at higher levels. With his ability to spin the ball and spin efficiency, he should be able to add more to his arsenal, either throwing an actual sweeper to left-handed hitters or adding a true cutter to attack the inside part of the plate for right-handed hitters. 

    Expanding Anderson’s arsenal with glove-side breaking balls is the next step in his development, and it appears to be a very attainable goal.

    Changeup: 82-85 mph  Specs: 9” IVB 12” Arm-side

    Anderson’s change piece has good depth and fade to it, working below the zone for chase. His usage of the pitch leans towards opposite-handed hitters, where he throws it about 16% of the time to righties and targets it down and away, playing into the pitch’s characteristics. He zones the pitch a decent amount for an offspeed pitch, though, and hitters will take it in the zone. However, he allows the most damage when it is left up.

    It’s a balance act between zoning the pitch for a strike or giving up a base hit in those scenarios, but the pitch is at its absolute best when he can dive it down from a right-handed hitter to get a swing over the top.

    Anderson’s ability to utilize his deep arsenal in different counts, as well as zone each pitch, allows him to use the changeup to get hitters out in front of the pitch and catch them off guard.

    Anderson also occasionally used the pitch to left-handed hitters as well, around 5% of the time as an extra wrinkle inside his arsenal. In its current form, he uses the pitch more away from left-handed hitters, avoiding down-and-in pitches to left-handed hitters, which is a safer bet in terms of location.

    It at least shows a trust in the changeup altogether, and he has a nice feel for the pitch, as with all the pitches in his arsenal.

    Curveball: 76-81 mph  Specs: -15” IVB 11” Horizontal

    Anderson’s curve might be his best pitch from a pitch quality standpoint. It’s a big breaker that has a nice shape. He can add and subtract velocity on it, whether he wants to throw a get-me-over strike or bury the pitch in the dirt.

    He would go to the pitch in count advantages when he was ahead by a strike or in some two-strike counts. If Anderson had a good feel for the release of his curve in a given start, he would mix it in the second and third times through the order. He even threw back-to-back curves at times, straying away from his aggressive fastball usage to certain hitters.

    Whatever team drafts Anderson will likely push his curveball velocity towards the higher end of his velocity band. However, there’s a real affinity for Anderson’s shape on the pitch, and he can zone it as a strike stealer early in counts. Additionally, his ability to get the pitch down under the zone for a swing and miss should also help it play with his fastball out of a good tunnel. 

    Ultimately, Anderson’s curve should be able to stay in his arsenal as a nice offering to add a change-of-pace during at-bats and some swing-and-miss as well.

    Projection:

    Anderson has the results to back up a deep arsenal, and he’s a safe bet to be some version of an MLB starter. There are likely some tweaks to be made to help Anderson reach a higher ceiling, and teams will appreciate the deep pitch mix and ability to throw strikes.

    With a real chance to add other pitches in some form of a glove-side pitch, whether a sweeper or even a cutter, teams will like the different avenues they can approach Anderson’s player development in pro ball. This isn’t even to mention a sinker, which adds a nice wrinkle to protect the four-seam.

    Whether the fastball and slider will eat up professional hitters the way they did college hitters might be a sticking point, as will keeping the ball in the park early in his pro ball career, if he’s still very aggressive in the zone. There’s enough command to push Anderson more away from the middle of the plate, though, where he allowed some of his most damage in college.

    Still, with Anderson, you’re getting a bulldog competitor who wants to see outings through to the end. Couple that with the clay to mold in terms of pitch mix, and there’s a solid floor, but if you can tap into more potential, Anderson could be a great return in value.

    Aesthetics Comp: Max Fried (Delivery and Similar Arsenal)