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  • Scouts vs Stats: Debating The Top 10 NFL Receivers

    Scouts vs Stats: Debating The Top 10 NFL Receivers

    For the second straight week, the SIS R&D staff convened on the Off the Charts podcast to talk about their Top 10 NFL players at a position (LISTEN HERE). But to do this, we pit two methodologies against each other: 

    • The “Scouts”, which comes down to the film-based opinions of Matt Manocherian and Bryce Rossler, each of whom has a lot of experience breaking down film and scouting players (Matt having done it for NFL teams).
    • The “Stats”, which involves James Weaver and Alex Vigderman devising a ranking based on a suite of metrics, and having that ranking speak for itself.

    Officially, Sports Info Solutions does not condone the dichotomy between scouting and statistical analysis. Each of them provides data in their own way and should inform our evaluation of a player. 

    When we originally produced the Football Rookie Handbook before transitioning that content to our NFL Draft site, we put the scouting reports and stats side-by-side with the idea that the reader would bounce back and forth between them and leverage both to come to a conclusion about a prospect.

    So, without further ado, let’s get to these ‘Best Receivers in the NFL’ lists and then do a deep dive on why each group ranked as it did.

    Scouts’ Opinion Statistical Analysis
    1. Tyreek Hill 1. Cooper Kupp
    2. Justin Jefferson 2. Davante Adams
    3. Ja’Marr Chase 3. Stefon Diggs
    4. A.J.Brown 4. Justin Jefferson
    5. Davante Adams 5. A.J. Brown
    6. Stefon Diggs 6. Amon-Ra St. Brown
    7. CeeDee Lamb 7. Deebo Samuel
    8. Jaylen Waddle 8. Tyreek Hill
    9. Cooper Kupp 9. CeeDee Lamb
    10. Deebo Samuel 10. DeVonta Smith

    The Stats List Methodology

    The stats-based ranking includes a three-year recency-weighted average of a player’s results across several different metrics, with the following weights applied to each:

    • 10% Run Blocking Total Points
    • 10% Positive% vs. Man Coverage
    • 10% Target Rate Above Expectation
    • 10% On-Target Catch Rate
    • 10% Broken+Missed Tackles per Reception

    We unsurprisingly lean heavily into Receiving Total Points, because it’s a catch-all metric that incorporates many of the other elements we might care about, and is a volume stat, meaning full-time players will be given credit for that.

    Run blocking is included because it is a part of every receiver’s job, but some players (like Cooper Kupp) are more crucial to their team’s overall success because of it. More a feather-in-the-cap type inclusion.

    We wanted to have some measure of success against man coverage, so we included Positive%, which is just asking how often their targets result in positive EPA. This technically includes quarterback play, which isn’t optimal, but the man coverage split is important enough that we kept it in.

    Target Rate Above Expectation takes into account a variety of factors to estimate how likely a player is to earn a target on a play, so it’s not just a matter of getting a lot of screens. You need to get open consistently beyond having a lot of schemed looks to have good results.

    And lastly we included measures of hands and elusiveness, and specifically metrics that we feel are the best evaluators of these specific skills in isolation. 

    What The Scouts Thought

    Matt and Bryce leaned heavily into the value of being disruptive from a game-planning perspective. The best players should be the answer to “Who scares me the most?” 

    Matt would have put Ja’Marr Chase second on the list, specifically noting that he forces the opponent to play 10-on-11 when he’s on the field. (We’ll talk about Chase more in a bit). While at times his production has looked similar to teammate Tee Higgins, that fear factor contributes to Chase’s rank here.

    Matt and Bryce debated the Davante Adams/A.J. Brown rankings as much as any of them, with age starting to contribute a bit to the evaluation of Adams. Brown’s beat-you-by-speed-or-by-physicality skill set won out, but Adams could have won out because of his surprising strength and acrobatics at the catch point.

    Despite an unbelievable 2021 season, Cooper Kupp’s injury-hampered 2022 dropped him on the scouting rankings. This is admittedly a bit of a hedge against his injury risk and age (relative to some of the others on the list), but in half a season in 2022 he still racked up 75 catches, so he’s not slowing down just yet.

    What The Stats Showed

    The stats-based list has 8 out of 10 of the same names, but there are still some pretty stark differences. Kupp at No. 1 is a little surprising because he missed half of his most recent season, but record-setting production in the prior year and a half more than moves the needle. 

    Kupp ranked in the top five in 3-year Receiving Total Points, Run Blocking Total Points, and Target Rate Above Expectation.

    The most alarming discrepancy between the scouts and stats is Chase, who ranked 3rd by the scouts and 28th by the stats. 

    Part of this is Chase missing a handful of games in 2022, which sinks him to 24th in the Receiving Total Points weighted average. But he also didn’t rank higher than 20th in any of the metrics. Beyond that, his 84% On-Target Catch% puts him in the bottom quarter of qualifying receivers.

    The Dolphins receivers also stand out in contrast. Tyreek Hill’s mind-blowing skill set—and how that affects game-planning—is tough to account for statistically, but so is his effect on other players on the offense. His value in stretching the field and drawing attention is probably enough to make the difference between his ranks on these lists.

    Jaylen Waddle ranks 61st on the stats-based list, largely because of problematic usage in his rookie year and some hands issues. 

    In 2021 his average target depth ranked 11th-lowest of 89 receivers with at least 50 targets, and he combined that with a pretty high number of drops for that usage. In 2022 that was a different story. 

    A year from now it won’t be surprising to find him surging up these rankings.

  • Grading The 2020 NFL Draft Class

    Grading The 2020 NFL Draft Class

    Introduction

    While many crave all the NFL Draft Team Grades that publications put out the day after the draft, including us on both accounts, there are a lot of unknowns at that point. Of course, we all have our own NFL Draft prospect rankings heading into that weekend, but those players have yet to play a single snap in the NFL. So, how can we really grade a team’s draft class if those players haven’t yet stepped onto an NFL field?

    It usually takes at least three years to see how well a draft class turned out. While said publications, including us, don’t want to wait three years before putting out their grades on a draft class, we do both.

    Three years ago, Sports Info Solutions published the 2nd edition of The SIS Football Rookie Handbook. After the 2020 NFL Draft, we, just as many others, posted our NFL Draft Team Grades, which can be seen here.

    Just as I did here last year, I’ve developed a system to evaluate the draft classes using Total Points relative to position as the foundation. Three seasons have now gone by since the 2020 NFL Draft. So, let’s use that to truly see how each team did with getting value from its selections.

    How much value did teams get?

    Let’s take a look at how we ranked teams after the 2020 NFL Draft and then who got the most and least value. See the Appendix below to see how all 32 teams ranked in our 2020 rankings and in TP Score.

    Here are the teams we ranked at the top immediately following the draft back in 2020. To see our scouting grading scale, check out our NFL Draft site.

    Top 5 Teams in 2020 Post-Draft Rankings
    Team Book Rank Grade
    Browns 1 6.50
    Bengals 2 6.49
    Cardinals 3 6.45
    Cowboys 4 6.44
    Bills 5 6.43

    TP Score will be defined below, but here are the top 5 teams based on how much value they received from their draft class.

    Top 5 Teams in TP Score
    Team TP Rank TP Score
    Chargers 1 105.56
    Bengals 2 104.84
    Chiefs 3 68.61
    Bears 4 63.67
    Panthers 5 58.59

    In our post-draft rankings in 2020, we tabbed the Browns as the No. 1 draft class. While they did end up having a strong group, they just missed the top 5, landing at No. 6.

    The No. 1 team in TP Score was the Chargers. When looking at them and the Bengals, it’s easy to see they both grabbed top-tier quarterbacks who have put up huge numbers over the last three seasons, which is extremely valuable. 

    Justin Herbert put up 432 Total Points himself, which ranked 3rd in the NFL, trailing only Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Joe Burrow added 292 Total Points, helping to give the Bengals a No. 2 ranking, a ranking we gave them back in 2020.

    The Chiefs, Bears, and Panthers also got major contributions from their draft classes. Kansas City got 132 Total Points from fourth-round pick L’Jarius Sneed, Chicago got a combined 150 from their first two picks, Cole Kmet and Jaylon Johnson, and Carolina got 160 combined from Derrick Brown and Jeremy Chinn.

    Conversely, here are the bottom 5 teams from our 2020 rankings.

    Bottom 5 Teams in 2020 Post-Draft Rankings
    Team Book Rank Grade
    Bears 28 6.07
    Texans 29 6.06
    Giants 30 6.04
    Steelers 31 6.02
    Packers 32 5.97

    Based on TP Score, here are the worst teams in terms of getting value from their 2020 draft picks.

    Bottom 5 Teams in TP Score
    Team TP Rank TP Score
    Rams 28 20.54
    Titans 29 19.83
    Texans 30 18.24
    Raiders 31 15.35
    Jets 32 14.94

    Clearly, we missed on the Bears. Not including Trevis Gipson or Darnell Mooney in the Handbook was a big miss on our part. However, the Texans got very minimal value from their draft, as we expected back in 2020.

    Determining Total Points Score

    In case you missed last year’s article, let’s explain the process of creating each team’s TP Score. When looking back to see how good or bad a specific draft class was, there are two main points to consider:

    1. How productive were the draft picks on the field?

    2. How much talent did the team draft relative to the amount of picks they made? 

    As in: Did they hit on one player or did they hit on multiple players?

    To determine the value of the draft classes, I used Total Points, our flagship player value stat, from across the last three seasons. However, for those of you who are familiar with Total Points, it gives a lot of extra weight to quarterbacks. With that said, Justin Herbert alone would have had the 4th-best draft class with his 432 Total Points if we just used raw Total Points.

    While there is a reason we weigh quarterbacks so much more compared to other positions (they are pretty important), using that raw number in this sense isn’t going to make for a perfect match. It just so happens that Herbert has accumulated so much value, along with a few of his fellow draftees, that it did give the Chargers our No. 1 spot.

    Now, answering the second question takes into account how well a team drafted throughout the entirety of the draft class. I found the average Total Points per player from the 2020 class at each position, including UDFAs who have taken at least one offensive or defensive snap, since they were also available to be selected.

    The positional averages are shown in the table below.

    Pos TP per Player
    QB 90.9
    RB 5.2
    WR 15.0
    TE 7.9
    OL 27.9
    DE 13.5
    DT 13.5
    LB 15.4
    CB 26.2
    S 25.1

    The TP Score, as referenced earlier, is what’s used to rank the teams. It is calculated as follows:

    1. Add up the Total Points from the entire team’s draft class
    2. Divide that number by the number of selections the team had
    3. Multiply that number by the percentage of draft picks that were above the average Total Points for their given position
    4. Add that to the original Total Points per draft pick

    In these 4 steps, we are essentially answering how productive the draft class was and how many picks were “hits”. Let’s run through an example using the Pittsburgh Steelers.

    Here is their draft class:

    Pos Player Total Points
    WR Chase Claypool 58
    LB Alex Highsmith 94
    RB Anthony McFarland Jr. -7
    OL Kevin Dotson 65
    S Antoine Brooks 2
    DT Carlos Davis 0

     

    1. Add up the Total Points from the entire team’s draft class — 212

    2. Divide that number by the number of selections the team had

    212 Total Points divided by 6 selections equals 35.33

    3. Multiply that number by the percentage of draft picks that were above the average Total Points for their given position.

    Claypool, Highsmith, and Dotson all accumulated a Total Points number that was above average compared to their position groups

    35.33 times 50% (3 out of 6) equals 17.67

    4. Add that to the original Total Points per draft pick

    35.33 plus 17.67 equals 53.00, which is their TP Score

    So, to summarize, we took the team’s Total Points gained from these players, dispersed it throughout the entire class and then gave a bump based on how many above-average players they drafted.

    Now that we know how the teams ranked and how the TP Score is calculated, let’s dive into some of the details.

    Other Key Takeaways

    – Two teams drafted “hits” on at least 75% of their players: the Seahawks and 49ers. Seattle hit on their first 6 picks (6 of 8 total), including Jordyn Brooks, Damien Lewis, and Alton Robinson.

    Interestingly enough, Brooks’ 80 Total Points ranked 2nd-most among all LBs in the class, but Seattle did not pick up his 5th-year option. The 49ers hit on 4 of their 5 picks, including getting 78 Total Points from Brandon Aiyuk.

    – The Ravens had the most hits with 7, and they actually just missed out on hitting with two of their other picks as well. While they did hit on the majority of their draft class, they only ranked 13th in TP Score, meaning they should’ve accumulated more Total Points given they made 10 selections.

    – Every team drafted at least one player who had played above the positional average compared to the rest of the draft class. However, the Jets (Mekhi Becton), Raiders (Henry Ruggs III), Eagles (Jalen Reagor), Packers (Jordan Love), Titans (Isaiah Wilson), Texans (Ross Blacklock), and Rams (Cam Akers) were the only teams whose first draft selection wasn’t an above-average player. We’ll find out a lot more about Jordan Love in 2023 now that Aaron Rodgers has moved on to New York.

    – The four teams with the most raw Total Points are the Chargers (475), Bengals (467), Vikings (441), and Dolphins (422). Those teams being at the top makes sense, given that three of them got a high-quality quarterback and the other, Minnesota, got Justin Jefferson as one of its 15 selections.

    – The Texans (76) and Raiders (94) accumulated the fewest Total Points from their draft classes over the past three seasons. The Texans make some sense, considering they only had five selections, but Ross Blacklock, their first pick of the draft, proved to be a big miss.

    Additionally, the Raiders made seven selections and only had one hit (John Simpson in the 4th round with 51 Total Points). Their other six selections, including two first-round picks, combined for only 43 Total Points.

    – Out of the 11 eligible defensive players who could get their 5th-year option picked up, only two did: Derrick Brown and A.J. Terrell. Conversely, 10 of 15 offensive players got theirs exercised. Of the 14 players who didn’t get their option picked up, 11 of them still performed at an above-average level. The only three who haven’t are Mekhi Becton (Jets), Jalen Reagor (Eagles/Vikings), and Noah Igbinoghene (Dolphins).

    How do our Initial Grades Compare?

    56% (18/32) of our initial ranks were in the correct half, just like last year. Meaning a team we ranked between 1 and 16 or 17 and 32 was ultimately in that tier.

    The biggest differences in our initial grades and these final rankings were the Seahawks (25 spots), Chiefs (24 spots), and the Bears (24 spots). The three teams with the biggest differences last year were initially rated near the top before ultimately ending up near the bottom. This year, it was the opposite. These three teams performed much better than our initial rankings.

    We mentioned Seattle before. Hitting on 6 of 8 picks is a great draft, especially considering one of them ranked second among their position in Total Points (Jordyn Brooks).

    Let’s be blunt about it: we missed big on not including L’Jarius Sneed in the Handbook. I don’t think many people expected him to play the way he has (132 Total Points, No. 1 CB), but that turned out to be a big omission. Also leaving out Mike Danna and being a little lower on Willie Gay helped to prove why we missed so badly with Kansas City’s draft class.

    Jaylon Johnson and Cole Kmet lived up to our expectations in Chicago, but excluding Darnell Mooney and Trevis Gipson, and their 79 combined Total Points from the book, assisted in us missing on their post-draft ranking.

    What were some of our biggest misses elsewhere? Not including Alex Highsmith, Kamren Curl, and Michael Onwenu, who all topped their position groups in Total Points, ended up being big misses along with Sneed. We missed on the tight end class, as three of our top five went undrafted and ended up with only 2 Total Points to date. Unfortunately, there was no Top-Five-to-Undrafted darling (i.e. Nik Needham) this year.

    Let’s take a look at some of our biggest wins. The first player drafted in 2020 who wasn’t in the Handbook was Matt Peart (Round 3, No. 99) by the Giants. He has gained only 13 Total Points across 37 games so far. The first player drafted who we didn’t get a formal look at was Cameron Clark (Round 4, No. 129) by the Jets. He wasn’t on our board and never saw a single snap in the NFL, though some of that had to do with severe injuries that forced him to retire.

    We tabbed Isaiah Wilson, who ended up going in the 1st round and playing in only one game, as one of the lowest graded players of the class. We didn’t include Joshua Kelley, fourth-round pick by the Chargers, and he’s managed to lose 19 Total Points during his time in the NFL. Additionally, Dalton Keene was our last-rated TE (No. 21), but was taken in the 3rd round by New England. His -5 Total Points is the worst among TEs in the class.

    The table below shows the top Total Points earners across the past three seasons and how we graded and ranked them in the Handbook.

    Rank Position Player Total Points SIS Grade SIS Pos Rank
    1 QB Justin Herbert 432 6.7 3
    2 QB Joe Burrow 292 6.9 1
    3 QB Jalen Hurts 216 6.2 8
    4 QB Tua Tagovailoa 174 6.9 2
    5 WR Justin Jefferson 133 6.9 3
    6 CB L’Jarius Sneed 132 NA NA
    7 OT Tristan Wirfs 115 6.8 3
    8 S Antoine Winfield Jr. 105 6.8 2

    We hit on our top 3 QBs, but were a little lower on Hurts. As mentioned before, omitting Sneed from the Handbook was a big miss for us. However, Jefferson, Wirfs, and Winfield have all played extremely well, as we tabbed each of them as high-end three-down starters.

    Conclusion

    Nobody really knows how a draft class is going to turn out immediately after the draft, yet it still makes sense to grade and rank the teams based on player grades for an initial reaction. 

    Post-draft grades are great in a sense, but they should be taken with a grain of salt. Once three years go by and we’ve seen what these players have done in the NFL, we can get a better sense of how good the team drafted.

    These rankings are all about finding which teams drafted the best draft class as a whole, not just who got the best player. While there are some players who didn’t play for the team that drafted them for the entirety of the past three seasons, that wasn’t taken into account since those decisions came after the initial drafting of these players, which is what this is based on.

    A big example of that from this class is Casey Toohill, who was drafted by Philadelphia and has 20 Total Points, but played only one game for them before playing 40 across the last three seasons in Washington.

    It’s not a perfect science, but it does a good job at pulling player value and seeing how well teams drafted as a whole class relative to the amount of selections they were afforded.

    Three years later, the comparison between our initial rankings and these rankings aren’t terrible for Year 2 (in both our grading and our scouting process). We made some improvements from Year 1 to Year 2, like adding 30 more players to the Handbook and featuring 25 (9%) more who were drafted. Though, we hope this article next year takes a large positive swing as we went into Year 3 in the 2021 draft cycle. As with everything we do here, we hope this improves year over year and can look back and say we kept getting better every day.

    Appendix

    2020 SIS Post-Draft Rankings based on the SIS Football Rookie Handbook

    Team Book Rank Grade
    Browns 1 6.50
    Bengals 2 6.49
    Cardinals 3 6.45
    Cowboys 4 6.44
    Bills 5 6.43
    Saints 6 6.40
    Rams 7 6.38
    Raiders 8 6.38
    Dolphins 9 6.35
    Ravens 10 6.31
    Lions 11 6.31
    Panthers 12 6.27
    Commanders 13 6.26
    Jets 14 6.26
    Buccaneers 15 6.26
    Eagles 16 6.23
    Falcons 17 6.22
    49ers 18 6.20
    Jaguars 19 6.17
    Broncos 20 6.17
    Chargers 21 6.17
    Seahawks 22 6.15
    Vikings 23 6.13
    Titans 24 6.13
    Patriots 25 6.08
    Colts 26 6.08
    Chiefs 27 6.07
    Bears 28 6.07
    Texans 29 6.06
    Giants 30 6.04
    Steelers 31 6.02
    Packers 32 5.97

    TP Rank based on TP Score and how much value each team got from their draft picks over the last three seasons

    Team TP Rank TP Score
    Chargers 1 105.56
    Bengals 2 104.84
    Chiefs 3 68.61
    Bears 4 63.67
    Panthers 5 58.59
    Browns 6 57.06
    Seahawks 7 56.44
    Dolphins 8 55.80
    Steelers 9 53.00
    Cowboys 10 52.76
    Falcons 11 51.25
    49ers 12 48.96
    Ravens 13 44.88
    Buccaneers 14 43.35
    Saints 15 43.13
    Bills 16 42.65
    Vikings 17 41.16
    Commanders 18 40.69
    Cardinals 19 39.17
    Eagles 20 38.87
    Patriots 21 33.60
    Colts 22 33.54
    Giants 23 31.50
    Lions 24 29.73
    Jaguars 25 23.61
    Broncos 26 22.54
    Packers 27 21.19
    Rams 28 20.54
    Titans 29 19.83
    Texans 30 18.24
    Raiders 31 15.35
    Jets 32 14.94

     

  • Reviewing 6 Studies and How They Apply To The 2023 NFL Draft

    Reviewing 6 Studies and How They Apply To The 2023 NFL Draft

    For a full treatment of the draft results and team grades, check out this magnum opus from Nathan Cooper, the head of our scouting operation.

    We wrote a bunch of articles in the run-up to the NFL Draft that evaluated players, teams, and the league as a whole. How does what happened in this year’s draft reflect on what we learned through those pieces? 

    Combine Measurements and Total Points – Do they Correlate?

    Our article on combine measurements looked to see how well they correlated to a player’s 2-year Total Points production value. We broke down all positions and their relative Total Points categories to see what combine measurements correlated well to success early on in a player’s career.

    Anthony Richardson (Colts) set a broad jump (10’9”) and vertical jump (40.5”) record for quarterbacks at the combine. The broad jump has the highest correlation of Total Points production for quarterbacks, so his gaudy combine numbers may translate well if he is the presumed starter off the bat in Indianapolis. New head coach Shane Steichen …what are you gonna do? (more on Richardson in a little bit)

    The Chiefs traded up in the second round to get SMU receiver Rashee Rice. Rice was tied with West Virginia’s Bryce Ford-Wheaton with the highest vertical jump (41”), which also shows a good correlation for receiver success. Patrick Mahomes worked out with Rice during the offseason, so he was able to see first hand the leaping abilities that his newly acquired weapon has.

    What Does a College Receiver’s Route Tree Say About Their Pro Prospects?

    In this article, we looked at what it means for a player to have a route tree that projects well to the NFL. There were three iterations of that analysis, and it gave us some players to watch out for.

    – How many unique routes did a receiver run in college?
    – What percentage of their routes were among the NFL’s ten most common?
    – How did their rank order of route types run compare to the NFL average?

    Each of these is a bit more refined towards the NFL route tree than the other, but each resulted in similar suggestions of players who might outperform or underperform expectations. 

    On the high end, players like Jalin Hyatt (Giants) and Cedric Tillman (Browns), who came out of Tennessee and went back-to-back in the third round, had route trees that aligned well with the NFL. TCU’s Quentin Johnston (Chargers) also appeared on multiple lists on the positive end.  Zay Flowers (Ravens) and Josh Downs (Colts) are the most at risk of underperforming, receiving red flags in all three variations of this analysis.

    The 2023 QB Conversation: How Teammate and Schematic Context Impacts It

    We’ll keep this one short. There were some interesting dives into different contextual elements that affect how we should evaluate the profiles of the top four quarterback prospects in this draft, but the biggest takeaway was just that Bryce Young (Panthers) and C.J. Stroud (Texans) had massive production, and they stood head-and-shoulders above the other QB prospects (and in line with previous top picks).

    This is mostly just to say that we might have been overthinking things a bit when there were conversations about the Texans passing on Stroud (and they ended up having their cake and eating it too by taking Will Anderson Jr. as well).

    Revisiting Our Draft Pick Value Curve

    We took another look at our Total-Points-based draft pick value curve through a couple of lenses in this article, but we can also just run the model for the trades that happened during the draft.

    This year’s first-round trades were pretty tame, in part because teams didn’t move that much. The biggest move by far was the Texans jumping up to No. 3 to take Anderson, which cost them a hefty price. Even if we assume that next year’s draft picks—of which the Texans dealt their first and third rounders—are worth a quarter of a pick in the current year, the size of their overpay was as big as any trade the last couple drafts.

    But if they assign little value to next year’s picks, the Texans weren’t very consistent in that approach. In a flurry of trades to start Day 3, they dealt the third pick of the fourth round to the Eagles for next year’s third rounder. From the perspective of our model, the Eagles actually underpaid to get to that slot, in a rare instance of a team not paying a premium to trade up. 

    Which NFL teams Would Be Most Justified In Drafting For Need?

    Speaking of the Eagles, we devised a measure of the quality of each team’s starters to find the teams for whom drafting for need would be most appropriate, and Philadelphia came out on top.

    Of course, they pretty much did what they typically do by taking quality trenches players with their first three picks, but they did use later picks to address some of the holes that remain on an otherwise fearsome roster.

    Another team we highlighted, the Chargers, took a best-player-available approach as well. They did not address their biggest holes in the secondary and interior offensive line. 

    The Titans and Raiders both had entire position groups that needed help—Tennessee’s offensive line and Las Vegas’ secondary—so they only could have done so much. The Titans took Peter Skoronski with their first pick, but the Raiders didn’t address the back end of their defense until the fourth round.

    Anthony Richardson’s Accuracy: A Closer Look

    Regardless of how Colts fans feel about Anthony Richardson as a prospect, there must be some degree of optimism around his marriage to new head coach Shane Steichen. 

    Jalen Hurts and Richardson are different players, but Steichen was able to develop and maximize the former’s talents, especially in the run game. Hurts went from being on the hot seat to securing a $255 million extension, including substantial improvement as a passer. Even if you don’t believe in Richardson right now, the past results should be encouraging for a prospect like him who is considered to have a low floor.

  • 2023 NFL Draft Team Grades

    2023 NFL Draft Team Grades

    If you want our full thoughts on the players your team has added, you can check out the SIS NFL Draft site for tons of great information. And if you’d like to contribute to next year’s draft cycle, consider applying to our Football Video Scout position.

    Welcome to our annual NFL Draft Report Card, in which we grade both teams and ourselves on how well they fared in this NFL Draft.

    First off, we grade ourselves on how many players were drafted that we had on our NFL Draft  website. After having 69% (174 of 254) of drafted players in the book in 2019, 78% (199 of 255) in 2020, 84% (218 of 259) in 2021, and 86% (226 of 262) in 2022 (Year 1 of the website), we finished the 2023 draft cycle with 92% (238 of 259).

    When taking out specialists and fullbacks, which we currently don’t write up, there were only 15 players drafted who weren’t on the site and only 4 of which we didn’t formally watch. That’s over 98% of the NFL Draft covered! Plus, many players we had on the site who didn’t get drafted have already signed free agent deals with teams.

    Using our grades, we attempted to rank each team’s draft class. Just like in our article from last season, we assigned all players who were drafted but not on the site a 5.4, which is the equivalent to a training camp body. We took those grades for each player and divided that by the number of selections the team had. 

    These rankings do not account for positional value, the value of where players were drafted, or trades teams made; it is literally based on the grades we gave the players who were drafted and how much talent we feel teams got from their selections compared to the number of picks they made.

    And with that, the 2023 Best Draft Class, with an average grade of 6.58, goes to the Carolina Panthers. They may have only had five draft picks, but they made the most of them by selecting players who were all featured on the SIS NFL Draft site and graded as role-playing starters or better by our scouts.

    The Panthers draft class is in the table below.

    Carolina Panthers 2023 Draft Class
    Pick Position Player College Grade
    1 QB Bryce Young Alabama 6.9
    39 WR Jonathan Mingo Ole Miss 6.4
    80 ED DJ Johnson Oregon 6.5
    114 OG Chandler Zavala NC State 6.4
    145 S Jammie Robinson Florida State 6.7

    After trading up for the No. 1 pick in early March, they took the quarterback many thought they would in Bryce Young from Alabama. Young was our top-ranked QB and our No. 4 player overall. He goes to a perfect situation as the quarterback of the future under new head coach Frank Reich.

    In the 2nd round, Carolina stayed in the SEC and took Jonathan Mingo out of Ole MIss (SIS No. 12 WR, No. 99 Overall). Having given up DJ Moore in the deal for No. 1, Carolina needed a young receiver to come in. We feel Mingo has the skill set to be a No. 3 WR by Year 2.

    In the middle of Round 3, the Panthers selected Oregon’s DJ Johnson (SIS No. 11 ED, No. 64 Overall). He’s an edge rusher who plays extremely hard and relentlessly on every play. As a player who bounced across both sides of the ball a couple times during his Oregon career, he should be able to ascend and hit a high ceiling with enhanced focus on and coaching at EDGE.

    Their final two picks were Chandler Zavala (SIS No. 5 OG) and Jammie Robinson (SIS No. 2 S, No. 26 Overall) in the 4th and 5th rounds, respectively. In all, across their five picks in the first 145, they grabbed four players in the SIS 101 and Zavala who just missed the list.

    SIS Top Draft Classes
    Year Team Previous Season Following Season 2nd Season
    2019 Tennessee Titans 9-7 (No Playoffs) 9-7 (L, AFC Champ) 11-5 (L, Wild Card)
    2020 Cleveland Browns 6-10 (No Playoffs) 11-5 (L, Divisional) 8-9
    2021 Detroit Lions 5-11 (No Playoffs) 3-13-1 9-8
    2022 New York Jets 4-13 (No Playoffs) 7-10 ?
    2023 Carolina Panthers 7-10 (No Playoffs) ? ?

    Since we grade players based on what they will be at the beginning of Year 2, let’s widen the table of our recent Draft Class winners. After winning as top class in 2019, the Titans made consecutive playoff appearances. While the Browns made the playoffs the next year, the turmoil in that locker room in 2021 forced a fall to 8-9. The Lions did take a dip in 2021 in the first year of a new regime, but they took a huge step forward this past season, nearly making the playoffs. As for the Jets, they improved their record in 2022 and had both the Offensive (Garrett Wilson) and Defensive (Sauce Gardner) Rookies of the Year. The future is bright in New York, especially now that they’ve added Aaron Rodgers.

    What does that mean for the Panthers? They now have a new head coach and the No. 1 overall pick lining up at quarterback. They added some nice pieces on offense in free agency in guys like RB Miles Sanders, WRs Adam Thielen and DJ Chark, and TE Hayden Hurst on offense. They also added S Vonn Bell and DTs Shy Tuttle and DeShawn Williams on defense. The team likely isn’t in a position to compete for Super Bowls just yet, but in a wide-open NFC South, there’s a chance they could make the playoffs within just a couple years.

    Now, let’s check out how the rest of the teams fared in our rankings. Here are the draft classes ranked in order of their grade:

    2023 Final Rankings
    Rank Team # of Picks Draft Grade
    1 Panthers 5 6.58
    2 Eagles 7 6.46
    3 Texans 9 6.39
    4 Steelers 7 6.33
    5 Titans 6 6.32
    6 Dolphins 4 6.30
    7 Seahawks 10 6.29
    8 Lions 8 6.29
    9 Vikings 6 6.27
    10 Buccaneers 8 6.24
    11 Colts 12 6.23
    12 Commanders 7 6.23
    13 Bears 10 6.20
    14 Raiders 9 6.20
    15 Chargers 7 6.20
    16 Falcons 6 6.20
    17 Broncos 5 6.20
    18 Browns 7 6.17
    19 Bills 6 6.17
    20 Cowboys 8 6.16
    21 Ravens 6 6.15
    22 Saints 7 6.14
    23 Rams 14 6.11
    24 Jets 7 6.10
    25 Giants 7 6.10
    26 Cardinals 9 6.09
    27 Bengals 8 6.09
    28 Chiefs 7 6.09
    29 Packers 13 6.06
    30 Patriots 12 5.98
    31 Jaguars 13 5.95
    32 49ers 9 5.92

    The Eagles take home the No. 2 spot for the second straight season after raking in three more Georgia Bulldogs on the defensive side of the ball. The Seahawks take the No. 7 spot for the second straight season, as well. Meanwhile, the Lions and Texans join those two teams and the Panthers with a Top-10 finish for the second year in a row.

    The bottom three teams for 2023, listed 30 to 32, were the Patriots. Jaguars, and 49ers. 

    While we are big fans of Christian Gonzalez (SIS No. 2 CB, No. 8 Overall) and Keion White (SIS No. 5 ED, No. 29 Overall), the Patriots only took one more player with a 6.4 grade or higher in their other 10 picks, and that was Kayshon Boutte (SIS No. 9 WR, No. 92 Overall). They beefed up the OL with three interior linemen we think are all versatile backups. They also added four players (two special teams) that weren’t on this year’s site.

    Another team with a lot of picks in their year’s draft, the Jaguars rank No. 31 on the list. While we are high on the upside of Anton Harrison (SIS No. 3 OT, No. 36 Overall), we tab him as just a low-end starter by Year 2. Additionally, only two more of their 13 picks we see as starters by Year 2: Tank Bigsby (SIS No. 6 RB, No. 80 Overall) and Antonio Johnson (SIS No. 5 S, No. 31 Overall). We tabbed only one other player as a versatile backup, and saw six as limited backups. They also took three players who didn’t make the site. The Brenton Strange pick was a bit of a reach in our eyes, as they took him late in Round 2, but we see him as a backup H-only tight end.

    This year’s worst class goes to the 49ers. It’s nearly become tradition that the teams with our worst draft class grade are teams without first-round picks. That’s the case again this year, as the 49ers didn’t have a pick until No. 87. However, aside from a kicker (Jake Moody) late in Round 3, all of their draft picks were featured on the site. Additionally, with that 87th pick, they got Ji’Ayir Brown, who was rated our 3rd-best safety and No. 27 player on the SIS 101.

    The team may have taken home our worst draft class, but they added some solid depth and are still poised to compete in 2023, coming off an NFC Championship Game appearance last season.

    Key Facts

    * With only 21 players drafted this year who weren’t featured on the site, a whopping 20 teams had entire draft classes that were all featured on the NFL Draft site. Two other teams selected all but one, with the one being a special teams player.

    * Only three players from the SIS 101 went undrafted this year. Ivan Pace Jr. (SIS No.1 MLB, No. 51 Overall) and Andre Carter II (SIS No. 14 ED, No. 73 Overall) are both reportedly heading to the Vikings on UDFA deals. Eli Ricks (SIS No. 12 CB, No. 89 Overall) is reportedly singing with the Eagles.

    * With their No. 1 draft class ranking this year, the Panthers now have the best average SIS Draft Class rank and grade average based on our player grades over the past five seasons. The Eagles, Lions, Ravens, and Bengals round out the top 5. The Colts stay on the bottom of this list, having drafted the least amount of talent over the past five drafts according to our grades, although they did have our 11th-best class this year.

    How the NFL Draft Site Compared to the Draft

    Let’s take a look at how the SIS website stacks up to the NFL’s thinking of where players were selected. 

    On offense, the first player drafted at QB, RB, and WR was the No. 1 player on our board at the position. While TE and each OL spot differed, the first player drafted at the positions was still in our top 4. 

    On defense, the top player at each position matched the first player drafted for all positions except the two LB positions. Our top MLB, Ivan Pace Jr., went undrafted and Jack Campbell was our No. 3 MLB. At WLB, our top player, Trenton Simpson, was the second drafted and Daiyan Henley was our No. 4 WLB.

    An interesting side note is that there were only four Mike linebackers drafted this year. While we don’t feature many at the position to begin with, linebacker was definitely a down group this year, and the NFL seemed to agree, only drafting 14 as a whole the entire draft.

    The top 5 QBs went off the board exactly how we had them ranked. The top 5 OTs and WLBs were the same group we had, just in different order. Additionally, the first five players off the board at every position were players we had featured on the site.

    Overdrafted?

    While this was a very deep EDGE class and the first round saw six go off the board, the next two taken early in Round 2 were Derick Hall (SIS No. 21 ED) at No. 37 to the Seahawks and Isaiah Foskey (SIS No. 23 ED) at No. 40 to the Saints. We felt there were 14-15 better options at that point in the draft. Our scouts tabbed both of these players as top backups with 5.9 grades, which is a very worthy player, but they’ll have work to do to live up to their early 2nd-round selection and become starting-level players.

    With less top-end talent in this class overall, our scouts graded only 31 players with a 6.7 grade or higher this year and 19 of them went off the board in Round 1. Additionally, only one player graded below a 6.5 (low-end starter) was drafted in the 1st round and that was Mazi Smith (SIS No. 1 NT) by the Cowboys at No. 26. While he had a lower grade, he was still our top-ranked NT. A 6.3 grade is a starting-level grade. However, we felt he’s not yet a three-down starter and will be a better two-down starter and run stopper by Year 2.

    Some other players we believe were taken too early for the roles we project them to are Brenton Strange (previously mentioned), Brodric Martin, and Tre Tucker, three players who were Top-100 selections and received grades a notch below a top backup.

    The first eligible player (non-specialist or fullback) taken who we did not give a strong enough grade to reach the threshold we set for the website was Packers QB Sean Clifford, taken in the 5th round, 149th overall. Additionally, the first player who went off the board that we didn’t get a formal look or report on was Cowboys CB Eric Scott Jr. in the 6th round, 178th overall.

    Underdrafted?

    Safeties Jammie Robinson and Antonio Johnson were the only 6.7s not selected in the top 100. With both going in the 5th round, we feel like they have very good chances to outperform their draft positions. We also feel that Dawand Jones (SIS No. 6 OT, No. 42 Overall) was a great pick by the Browns in the 4th round and SirVocea Dennis (SIS No. 2 WLB, No. 52 Overall) was a great pickup in the 5th round by the Buccaneers. Both players received 6.6 grades by our scouts.

    There were two players we had 6.5 grades on who slipped to the 6th round or later. Jaelyn Duncan (SIS No. 8 OT, No. 76 Overall) was a great pickup by the Titans in the 6th round and Andrew Vorhees (SIS No. 3 OG, No. 67 Overall) was an even better pickup by the Ravens in the 7th. 

    While we assumed Vorhees’ fall due to the devastating ACL injury he suffered at the NFL Combine, we believe him to be at least a low-end starter not long after he gets back to full strength. Baltimore seems to like drafting good players with current injuries and “redshirting” them, as they did the same with David Ojabo last year.

    The only two players we graded within the top 5 of their position group who were not drafted were Ivan Pace Jr. and Cam Jones, both Mike linebackers. As previously mentioned, only four MLBs were drafted this year. Additionally, as Pace is reportedly headed to Minnesota on a UDFA deal, Jones has signed with the Chiefs.

    SIS Draft Site Report Card

    Every year the SIS scouting department looks to make improvements, and this year was no different. With the SIS Football Operation growing the way it is, our time was somewhat limited this year. That’s why we made the decision to only write a Last Word summary for any players who received a grade below 6.0. 

    While we’d love to keep pumping out full reports for all the prospects we feature on the site, this is what allowed us to get as many on there as we did. It may be a welcomed change that sticks moving forward and allows us to continue featuring so many players.

    While last year was the first year of the website, this year was the first that didn’t include one of our original Handbook members, John Todd. However, a five-man scouting team, consisting of Nathan Cooper, Jordan Edwards, Jeff Dean, Ben Hrkach, and Chad Tedder, put in the hard work to finalize over 650 reports, of which 401 made it onto this year’s SIS NFL Draft site. This is the first time in five years the number of players/reports featured went down from the previous year (410 last year), but only by a few.

    The number of drafted non-specialist/fullback players not featured on our site went down significantly this year, as did the number of players drafted on whom we didn’t have eyes on at all (only 4 out of 259!). As we noted, our Top-100 evaluations were a big success with 71 of our top 100 drafted in the first 100 picks and only three of our SIS 101 not selected at all. The first player not featured on the website, outside of the specialists, being drafted in the 5th round and the first we didn’t have eyes on not until the 6th round were huge successes.

    We can’t wait to build off the successes of our online platform and continue to streamline the process moving forward. Year 2 of the site and Year 5 of the process was the best yet, but we expect next year to be even better, just as every previous edition before it.

    Please continue to check out the SIS NFL Draft website as the offseason continues. If you’d like to be involved in our scouting and charting processes next year, consider applying to our Football Video scout position. We’re taking applications and interviewing for next year’s class now.

  • Coop’s First & Final 2023 Mock Draft

    Coop’s First & Final 2023 Mock Draft

    Every year since before I can remember, I do my own Mock Draft. I only do one, and it’s done within a day or two prior to the NFL Draft.

    This is the toughest first round I’ve had to come up with to date.

    What do the Texans do at 2? What teams are taking the top QBs? There’s not as much top-end talent in this draft as in years past. So, who slides into the back-end of the first round that normally wouldn’t have gone that high in other years?

    Without projecting trades and, instead, trying to match players to teams, I attempt to answer those questions and more now.

    Round 1
    Pick Team Position Player College
    1 Panthers QB Bryce Young Alabama
    2 Texans ED Tyree Wilson Texas Tech
    3 Cardinals ED Will Anderson Jr. Alabama
    4 Colts QB C.J. Stroud Ohio State
    5 Seahawks DT Jalen Carter Georgia
    6 Lions CB Devon Witherspoon Illinois
    7 Raiders CB Christian Gonzalez Oregon
    8 Falcons ED Nolan Smith Georgia
    9 Bears OT Paris Johnson Jr. Ohio State
    10 Eagles DT Lukas Van Ness Iowa
    11 Titans OT Peter Skoronski Northwestern
    12 Texans QB Will Levis Kentucky
    13 Packers WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba Ohio State
    14 Patriots OT Broderick Jones Georgia
    15 Jets OT Darnell Wright Tennessee
    16 Commanders QB Anthony Richardson Florida
    17 Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr. Penn State
    18 Lions DT Calijah Kancey
    		 Pittsburgh
    19 Buccaneers CB Deonte Banks Maryland
    20 Seahawks TE Michael Mayer Notre Dame
    21 Chargers DT
    		 Bryan Bresee
    		 Clemson
    22 Ravens CB Emmanuel Forbes Mississippi State
    23 Vikings WR Jordan Addison USC
    24 Jaguars S Brian Branch Alabama
    25 Giants WR Zay Flowers Boston College
    26 Cowboys RB Bijan Robinson Texas
    27 Bills ED Myles Murphy
    		 Clemson
    28 Bengals TE Dalton Kincaid Utah
    29 Saints ED Will McDonald IV Iowa State
    30 Eagles RB Jahmyr Gibbs Alabama
    31 Chiefs OT Anton Harrison Oklahoma

    Be sure to check out the rest of my Mock Draft, all seven rounds (going up midday on Thursday), on Twitter @ncoopdraft and check out all of our content on this year’s class at the SIS NFL Draft site.

  • 2023 SIS Scouting Staff NFL Mock Draft

    2023 SIS Scouting Staff NFL Mock Draft

    There were thoughts that last year could be one of the more unpredictable NFL Drafts in recent history. However, with even more uncertainty and less top-tier talent, this year tops it.

    Where do all the QBs land? When does the first RB come off the board? How many EDGEs and CBs will we see in the first round?

    Using traditional scouting and analytics in conjunction with the SIS NFL Draft site, the Sports Info Solutions Operations department tried its hand at attempting to answer all the burning questions and more in a full 7-Round Mock Draft.

    Where are your favorite players going to land?

    Who is your favorite team going to select?

    Those questions and more are about to be answered. Find out now!

    Round 1
    Pick Team Scout Player College
    1 Panthers Jordan QB Bryce Young Alabama
    The Panthers traded up to No. 1 to select their next franchise QB, and while Young has size concerns, he is a natural leader and playmaker at the position.
    2 Texans Chad QB C.J. Stroud Ohio State
    New HC DeMeco Ryans and the Texans had the entire draft field in front of them and they selected their franchise QB, and though Stroud has to work through some decision making, he has the accuracy and awareness to be a playmaker for them.
    3 Cardinals Ben EDGE Will Anderson Jr. Alabama
    First time head coach and former defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon puts his stamp on the franchise by selecting a physical force that was one of the most dominant edge rushers in college football history.
    4 Colts Jeremy QB Anthony Richardson Florida
    The Colts finally get the young QB they have been seeking since Andrew Luck’s retirement, as Richardson is a young prospect with elite athleticism and traits who fits seamlessly into Steichen’s new offense.
    5 Seahawks Jeff DT Jalen Carter Georgia
    Pete Carroll hasn’t been scared off by off-field issues before, and the Sehawks get a chance to draft an absolute game-wrecker along the defensive line.
    6 Lions Nathan CB Devon Witherspoon Illinois
    Witherspoon’s physicality in all aspects of the game and dominance as a man corner both fit perfectly into the culture and scheme that Brad Holmes, Dan Campbell, and the Detroit Lions have built over the last two seasons.
    7 Raiders Theo CB Christian Gonzalez Oregon
    Gonzalez is a very good athlete with the coverage versatility and ball skills to immediately make a big impact on a Raiders defense that struggles to force turnovers or get stops in general.
    8 Falcons Jordan EDGE Nolan Smith Georgia
    Terry Fontenot and the Falcons value elite athletes in the first round, and there aren’t many more in this class outside of Smith.
    9 Bears Conner EDGE Tyree Wilson Texas Tech
    For a team in need of a force on the edge, HC Matt Eberflus and the Bears will be happy about having Wilson fall into their laps.
    10 Eagles Ben WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba Ohio State
    With a new contract for franchise QB Jalen Hurts limiting the Eagles’ salary cap space for the near future, they are in win-now mode and a bona fide third option would make an already great offense nearly unstoppable.
    11 Titans Dan OT Paris Johnson Jr. Ohio State
    Johnson is an incredible athlete who would give the Titans a true pillar at one of the most important positions in the game.
    12 Texans Chad EDGE Myles Murphy Clemson
    DeMeco Ryans goes defense with his other first-round pick in Murphy, where his strength and relentlessness will allow him to get after other QBs in the division.
    13 Packers Jeff TE Michael Mayer Notre Dame
    The Packers grab a reliable safety blanket to give new starter Jordan Love more weapons and ease his way into the spotlight.
    14 Patriots Stephen OT Peter Skoronski Northwestern
    The addition of Skoronski will add strength and athleticism to what has been a shaky spot on the Patriots roster in previous seasons.
    15 Jets Nathan OT Broderick Jones Georgia
    The Jets need an upgrade at tackle to protect their newest investment in Aaron Rodgers, and Jones fits the bill as an athletic mover on the blindside.
    16 Commanders Max QB Will Levis Kentucky
    The Commanders claim they are satisfied with the QB room but can’t pass up the opportunity to take the upside with Levis as he falls down the board.
    17 Steelers Max CB Joey Porter Jr. Penn State
    The Porter family bloodlines stay in black and gold as the Steelers add a physical corner who fits Mike Tomlin’s defensive style of play.
    18 Lions Nathan DT Calijah Kancey Pittsburgh
    Detroit needs more quickness and pass rush ability on the interior, and while Kancey is a little undersized, his get-off and ability to win right away will be a perfect fit alongside their powerful run stuffers.
    19 Buccaneers Micklos OT Darnell Wright Tennessee
    The Bucs have a glaring need at tackle that the Tennessee mauler solves.
    20 Seahawks Jeff RB Bijan Robinson Texas
    The Seahawks love running backs, and the best player on the board slides into their lap to give their offense a dynamic 1-2 punch in the backfield.
    21 Chargers Theo WR Quentin Johnston TCU
    The AFC West is an arms race, so the Chargers add another big-body playmaker who will also free up Keenan Allen to play exclusively in the slot in 3-WR sets as he gets toward the back-end of his career.
    22 Ravens Segev WR Zay Flowers Boston College
    The Ravens continue to add bodies to their WR room by taking one of the best playmakers available.
    23 Vikings Jeff DT Lukas Van Ness Iowa
    The Vikings need more pass rush from their front line, and Van Ness is a great fit for their defense where he has the time to develop into a three-down playmaker; this could be viewed as a steal in the future.
    24 Jaguars Jeremy S Brian Branch Alabama
    Branch provides versatility and playmaking ability to the Jaguars defensive backfield and helps poise the young team to make a major ascension.
    25 Giants Ben OG O’Cyrus Torrence Florida
    The Giants are in a position to go best player available, and Torrence will provide protection at guard for a freshly paid Daniel Jones, as well as open run lanes to maximize the last few years of Saquon Barkley’s prime.
    26 Cowboys Chad TE Darnell Washington Georgia
    The Cowboys look to fill a hole left in their TE room with Washington, whose big and powerful frame will allow them to build upon their running game and be a mismatch downfield.
    27 Bills Evan WR Jordan Addison USC
    The Bills can add to Josh Allen’s arsenal either through free agency or here with Addison, who adds another threat to the offense to compete for a Super Bowl.
    28 Bengals Michael TE Dalton Kincaid Utah
    With Hayden Hurst leaving for Carolina and Irv Smith Jr on a 1-year prove it deal, Kincaid gives Cincy a versatile inside-out receiving threat that has time to develop as a blocker in the physical AFC North.
    29 Saints Conner NT Mazi Smith Michigan
    Saints have issues up front and Smith will come in day 1 and help alleviate those concerns.
    30 Eagles Ben EDGE Will McDonald IV Iowa State
    With an offense built to score often and control the ball, the Eagles defense should find itself in a high volume of passing downs, and McDonald IV has the ability to get to the QB from a variety of alignments.
    31 Chiefs Nathan DT Bryan Bresee Clemson
    With the loss of some key DL, Bresee would come in and pair nicely next to Chris Jones, as he has tons of upside and potential that he wasn’t able to show consistently in college due to injuries and other circumstances.
    Round 2
    Pick Team Scout Player College
    32 Steelers Max OT Anton Harrison Oklahoma
    33 Texans Chad WR Josh Downs North Carolina
    34 Cardinals Ben CB Emmanuel Forbes Mississippi State
    35 Colts Jeremy CB Deonte Banks Maryland
    36 Rams Justin EDGE Keion White Georgia Tech
    37 Seahawks Jeff OC John Michael Schmitz Minnesota
    38 Raiders Theo EDGE Byron Young Tennessee
    39 Panthers Jordan EDGE BJ Ojulari LSU
    40 Saints Conner EDGE Felix Anudike-Uzomah Kansas State
    41 Titans Dan QB Hendon Hooker Tennessee
    42 Packers Jeff WR Jalin Hyatt Tennessee
    43 Jets Nathan S Ji’Ayir Brown Penn State
    44 Falcons Jordan DT Adetomiwa Adebawore Northwestern
    45 Packers Jeff S Antonio Johnson Texas A&M
    46 Patriots Stephen CB Tyrique Stevenson Miami
    47 Commanders Max TE Luke Musgrave Oregon State
    48 Lions Nathan RB Jahmyr Gibbs Alabama
    49 Steelers Max NT Keeanu Benton Wisconsin
    50 Buccaneers Micklos LB SirVocea Dennis Pittsburgh
    51 Dolphins Micklos TE Tucker Kraft South Dakota State
    52 Seahawks Jeff TE Sam LaPorta Iowa
    53 Bears Conner OT Matthew Bergeron Syracuse
    54 Chargers Theo S Jammie Robinson Florida State
    55 Lions Nathan WR Cedric Tillman Tennessee
    56 Jaguars Jeremy OT Dawand Jones Ohio State
    57 Giants Ben WR Jonathan Mingo Ole Miss
    58 Cowboys Chad OG Cody Mauch North Dakota State
    59 Bills Evan LB Trenton Simpson Clemson
    60 Bengals Michael S Jordan Battle Alabama
    61 Bears Conner CB Julius Brents Kansas State
    62 Eagles Ben S Sydney Brown Illinois
    63 Chiefs Nathan EDGE Drew Sanders Arkansas
    Round 3
    Pick Team Scout Player College
    64 Bears Conner DT Gervon Dexter Florida
    65 Texans Chad OG Steve Avila TCU
    66 Cardinals Ben RB Devon Achane Texas A&M
    67 Broncos Nathan OC Joe Tippmann Wisconsin
    68 Broncos Nathan CB Cam Smith South Carolina
    69 Rams Justin CB DJ Turner Michigan
    70 Raiders Theo LB Ivan Pace Jr. Cincinnati
    71 Saints Conner WR A.T. Perry Wake Forest
    72 Titans Dan WR Xavier Hutchinson Iowa State
    73 Texans Chad LB Jack Campbell Iowa
    74 Browns Michael LB Noah Sewell Oregon
    75 Falcons Jordan WR Jayden Reed Michigan State
    76 Patriots Stephen WR Rashee Rice SMU
    77 Rams Justin OT Blake Freeland BYU
    78 Packers Jeff CB Kelee Ringo Georgia
    79 Colts Jeremy WR Tyler Scott Cincinnati
    80 Steelers Max EDGE Tuli Tuipulotu USC
    81 Lions Nathan LB Daiyan Henley Washington State
    82 Buccaneers Micklos CB Jakorian Bennett Maryland
    83 Seahawks Jeff OG Andrew Vorhees USC
    84 Dolphins Micklos OT Jaelyn Duncan Maryland
    85 Chargers Theo CB Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson TCU
    86 Ravens Segev CB Cory Trice Purdue
    87 Vikings Jeff QB Tanner McKee Stanford
    88 Jaguars Jeremy EDGE DJ Johnson Oregon
    89 Giants Ben CB Riley Moss Iowa
    90 Cowboys Chad RB Zach Charbonnet UCLA
    91 Bills Evan OT Tyler Steen Alabama
    92 Bengals Michael RB Roschon Johnson Texas
    93 Panthers Jordan OG Chandler Zavala NC State
    94 Eagles Ben DT Zacch Pickens South Carolina
    95 Chiefs Nathan WR Marvin Mims Jr. Oklahoma
    96 Cardinals Ben EDGE Andre Carter II Army
    97 Commanders Max RB Tyjae Spears Tulane
    98 Browns Michael CB Eli Ricks Alabama
    99 49ers Jordan OT Braeden Daniels Utah
    100 Raiders Theo DT Colby Wooden Auburn
    101 49ers Jordan CB Terell Smith Minnesota
    102 49ers Jordan DT YaYa Diaby Louisville
    Round 4
    Pick Team Scout Player College
    103 Bears Conner S JL Skinner Boise State
    104 Texans Chad DT Siaki Ika Baylor
    105 Cardinals Ben OC Olusegun Oluwatimi Michigan
    106 Colts Jeremy OG Anthony Bradford LSU
    107 Patriots Stephen TE Luke Schoonmaker Michigan
    108 Broncos Nathan S Jartavius Martin Illinois
    109 Raiders Theo OG Jordan McFadden Clemson
    110 Falcons Jordan CB Garrett Williams Syracuse
    111 Browns Michael RB Evan Hull Northwestern
    112 Jets Nathan LB Dorian Williams Tulane
    113 Falcons Jordan LB DeMarvion Overshown Texas
    114 Panthers Jordan WR Charlie Jones Purdue
    115 Saints Conner RB Tank Bigsby Auburn
    116 Packers Jeff NT Jaquelin Roy LSU
    117 Patriots Stephen LB Dee Winters TCU
    118 Commanders Max OC Ricky Stromberg Arkansas
    119 Vikings Jeff CB Darius Rush South Carolina
    120 Steelers Max WR Nathaniel Dell Houston
    121 Jaguars Jeremy WR Kayshon Boutte LSU
    122 Chiefs Nathan OT Wanya Morris Oklahoma
    123 Seahawks Jeff EDGE Mike Morris Michigan
    124 Ravens Segev EDGE Viliami Fehoko San Jose State
    125 Chargers Theo NT Nesta Jade Silvera Arizona State
    126 Browns Michael WR Rakim Jarrett Maryland
    127 Jaguars Jeremy TE Davis Allen Clemson
    128 Giants Ben S Brandon Joseph Notre Dame
    129 Cowboys Chad EDGE Isaiah Foskey Notre Dame
    130 Bills Evan DT Kobie Turner Wake Forest
    131 Bengals Michael S Jay Ward LSU
    132 Panthers Jordan RB Kendre Miller TCU
    133 Bears Conner OC Luke Wypler Ohio State
    134 Chiefs Nathan S Marte Mapu Sacramento State
    135 Patriots Stephen S Josh Hayes Kansas State
    Round 5
    Pick Team Scout Player College
    136 Bears Conner WR Puka Nacua BYU
    137 Bills Evan OG Emil Ekiyor Jr. Alabama
    138 Colts Jeremy DT Karl Brooks Bowling Green
    139 Broncos Nathan DT Tyler Lacy Oklahoma State
    140 Browns Michael OG Joey Fisher Shepherd
    141 Raiders Theo S Christopher Smith Georgia
    142 Browns Michael LB Henry To’oTo’o Alabama
    143 Jets Nathan CB Clark Phillips III Utah
    144 Raiders Theo LB Micah Baskerville LSU
    145 Panthers Jordan LB Owen Pappoe Auburn
    146 Saints Conner DT Cory Durden NC State
    147 Titans Dan EDGE Derick Hall Auburn
    148 Bears Conner TE Payne Durham Purdue
    149 Packers Jeff RB Deuce Vaughn Kansas State
    150 Commanders Max LB Cam Jones Indiana
    151 Seahawks Jeff QB Jake Haener Fresno State
    152 Lions Nathan EDGE Zach Harrison Ohio State
    153 Buccaneers Micklos OG Brent Laing Minnesota-Duluth
    154 Seahawks Jeff EDGE Lonnie Phelps Kansas
    155 49ers Jordan EDGE Tavius Robinson Ole Miss
    156 Chargers Theo OC Jake Andrews Troy
    157 Ravens Segev OG Sidy Sow Eastern Michigan
    158 Vikings Jeff EDGE Nick Hampton Appalachian State
    159 Lions Nathan TE Josh Whyle Cincinnati
    160 Giants Ben LB Anfernee Orji Vanderbilt
    161 Texans Chad OT Nick Saldiveri Old Dominion
    162 Colts Jeremy CB Rejzhon Wright Oregon State
    163 Bengals Michael LB Mikel Jones Syracuse
    164 49ers Jordan OT Ryan Hayes Michigan
    165 Saints Conner DT Byron Young Alabama
    166 Chiefs Nathan RB Eric Gray Oklahoma
    167 Rams Justin QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson UCLA
    168 Cardinals Ben WR Dontayvion Wicks Virginia
    169 Cowboys Chad DT Moro Ojomo Texas
    170 Jets Nathan EDGE Nick Herbig Wisconsin
    171 Rams Justin OT Warren McClendon Georgia
    172 Giants Ben OC Jarrett Patterson Notre Dame
    173 49ers Jordan CB Kei’Trel Clark Louisville
    174 Raiders Theo WR Trey Palmer Nebraska
    175 Buccaneers Micklos K Jake Moody Michigan
    176 Colts Jeremy S Chamarri Conner Virginia Tech
    177 Rams Justin S Demarcco Hellams Alabama
    Round 6
    Pick Team Scout Player College
    178 Chiefs Nathan CB Mekhi Blackmon USC
    179 Buccaneers Micklos CB Kyu Blu Kelly Stanford
    180 Cardinals Ben S Ronnie Hickman Ohio State
    181 Buccaneers Micklos DT Dante Stills West Virginia
    182 Rams Justin OC Juice Scruggs Penn State
    183 Lions Nathan OG Asim Richards North Carolina
    184 Patriots Stephen NT Keondre Coburn Texas
    185 Jaguars Jeremy OG Jon Gaines II UCLA
    186 Titans Dan CB Jaylon Jones Texas A&M
    187 Patriots Stephen EDGE Yasir Abdullah Louisville
    188 Texans Chad TE Joel Wilson Central Michigan
    189 Rams Justin EDGE Isaiah Land Florida A&M
    190 Browns Michael EDGE Ali Gaye LSU
    191 Rams Justin WR Andrei Iosivas Princeton
    192 Patriots Stephen LB Bumper Pool Arkansas
    193 Commanders Max CB Darrell Luter Jr. South Alabama
    194 Lions Nathan WR Ronnie Bell Michigan
    195 Broncos Nathan OT Carter Warren Pittsburgh
    196 Buccaneers Micklos EDGE Dylan Horton TCU
    197 Dolphins Micklos NT Robert Cooper Florida State
    198 Seahawks Jeff OT Jake Witt Northern Michigan
    199 Ravens Segev TE Travis Vokolek Nebraska
    200 Chargers Theo EDGE K.J. Henry Clemson
    201 Texans Chad RB Zach Evans Ole Miss
    202 Jaguars Jeremy DT Jalen Redmond Oklahoma
    203 Texans Chad S Anthony Johnson Jr. Iowa State
    204 Raiders Theo RB Kenny McIntosh Georgia
    205 Bills Evan TE Hunter Luepke North Dakota State
    206 Bengals Michael QB Stetson Bennett Georgia
    207 Packers Jeff OC Grant Gibson NC State
    208 Jaguars Jeremy CB Mekhi Garner LSU
    209 Giants Ben WR Michael Wilson Stanford
    210 Patriots Stephen P Bryce Baringer Michigan State
    211 Vikings Jeff WR Bryce Ford-Wheaton West Virginia
    212 Cowboys Chad QB Clayton Tune Houston
    213 Cardinals Ben QB Max Duggan TCU
    214 Raiders Theo EDGE Jose Ramirez Eastern Michigan
    215 Commanders Max OT Connor Galvin Baylor
    216 49ers Jordan K Anders Carlson Auburn
    217 Chiefs Nathan OT Dalton Wagner Arkansas
    Round 7
    Pick Team Scout Player College
    218 Bears Conner CB Corey Mayfield Jr. UTSA
    219 Eagles Ben TE Will Mallory Miami
    220 Raiders Theo QB Jaren Hall BYU
    221 Colts Jeremy EDGE Thomas Incoom Central Michigan
    222 49ers Jordan S Jordan Howden Minnesota
    223 Rams Justin EDGE Isaiah McGuire Missouri
    224 Falcons Jordan S Trey Dean III Florida
    225 Falcons Jordan OT Trevor Reid Louisville
    226 Jaguars Jeremy S Jaiden Woodbey Boston College
    227 Saints Conner S Jason Taylor II Oklahoma State
    228 Titans Dan K Chad Ryland Maryland
    229 Browns Michael OG Jaxson Kirkland Washington
    230 Texans Chad CB Cameron Mitchell Northwestern
    231 Raiders Theo TE Leonard Taylor Cincinnati
    232 Packers Jeff NT Brodric Martin Western Kentucky
    233 Commanders Max EDGE Robert Beal Jr. Georgia
    234 Rams Justin OG Atonio Mafi UCLA
    235 Packers Jeff OG Nick Broeker Ole Miss
    236 Colts Jeremy LB Mohamoud Diabate Utah
    237 Seahawks Jeff TE Zack Kuntz Old Dominion
    238 Dolphins Micklos EDGE Derek Parish Houston
    239 Chargers Theo TE Cameron Latu Alabama
    240 Giants Ben TE Brenton Strange Penn State
    241 Steelers Max QB Aidan O’Connell Purdue
    242 Packers Jeff QB Malik Cunningham Louisville
    243 Giants Ben NT PJ Mustipher Penn State
    244 Cowboys Chad K B.T. Potter Clemson
    245 Patriots Stephen CB Christian Braswell Rutgers
    246 Bengals Michael WR Antoine Green North Carolina
    247 49ers Jordan TE Brayden Willis Oklahoma
    248 Eagles Ben OG McClendon Curtis Chattanooga
    249 Chiefs Nathan WR Justin Shorter Florida
    250 Chiefs Nathan EDGE BJ Thompson Stephen F. Austin
    251 Steelers Max S Daniel Scott California
    252 Buccaneers Micklos RB Sean Tucker Syracuse
    253 49ers Jordan LB Jalen Graham Purdue
    254 Giants Ben DT Desjuan Johnson Toledo
    255 49ers Jordan RB Israel Abanikanda Pittsburgh
    256 Packers Jeff P Adam Korsak Rutgers
    257 Saints Conner EDGE Malik Hamm Lafayette
    258 Bears Conner OC Alan Ali TCU
    259 Texans Chad WR Jalen Moreno-Cropper Fresno State

    The members of the SIS Operations staff who took part in this Mock Draft are: Nathan Cooper, Jordan Edwards, Jeff Dean, Ben Hrkach, Chad Tedder, Theo Fornaciari, Jeremy Percy, Conner Hrabal, Max Nuscher, Michael Morgan, Johnathan Micklos, Stephen Marciello, Justin Stine, Evan Butler, Dan Foehrenbach, and Segev Goldberg.

  • 2023 “SIS 101” Final Rankings

    2023 “SIS 101” Final Rankings

    Cornerbacks, edge rushers, and wide receivers dominate our Top 101 Big Board.

    Check out the entire list below and find much more at our NFL Draft website:

    2023 SIS 101 – Final Rankings
    Rank Position Player School Grade
    1 ED Will Anderson Jr. Alabama 7.2
    2 DT Jalen Carter Georgia 7.0
    3 RB Bijan Robinson Texas 7.0
    4 QB Bryce Young Alabama 6.9
    5 QB C.J. Stroud Ohio State 6.9
    6 ED Nolan Smith Georgia 6.8
    7 CB Devon Witherspoon Illinois 6.8
    8 CB Christian Gonzalez Oregon 6.8
    9 WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba Ohio State 6.8
    10 OT Peter Skoronski Northwestern 6.8
    11 RB Jahmyr Gibbs Alabama 6.8
    12 SAF Brian Branch Alabama 6.8
    13 TE Michael Mayer Notre Dame 6.8
    14 OC John Michael Schmitz Minnesota 6.8
    15 OT Paris Johnson Jr. Ohio State 6.7
    16 WR Quentin Johnston TCU 6.7
    17 DT Calijah Kancey Pittsburgh 6.7
    18 ED Tyree Wilson Texas Tech 6.7
    19 WR Zay Flowers Boston College 6.7
    20 ED Myles Murphy Clemson 6.7
    21 TE Darnell Washington Georgia 6.7
    22 CB Joey Porter Jr. Penn State 6.7
    23 WR Josh Downs North Carolina 6.7
    24 WR Jordan Addison USC 6.7
    25 TE Tucker Kraft South Dakota State 6.7
    26 SAF Jammie Robinson Florida State 6.7
    27 SAF Ji’Ayir Brown Penn State 6.7
    28 CB Emmanuel Forbes Mississippi State 6.7
    29 ED Keion White Georgia Tech 6.7
    30 SAF Jordan Battle Alabama 6.7
    31 SAF Antonio Johnson Texas A&M 6.7
    32 QB Anthony Richardson Florida 6.6
    33 QB Will Levis Kentucky 6.6
    34 OG O’Cyrus Torrence Florida 6.6
    35 OC Joe Tippmann Wisconsin 6.6
    36 OT Anton Harrison Oklahoma 6.6
    37 ED Will McDonald IV Iowa State 6.6
    38 ED BJ Ojulari LSU 6.6
    39 WLB Trenton Simpson Clemson 6.6
    40 OT Broderick Jones Georgia 6.6
    41 OT Darnell Wright Tennessee 6.6
    42 OT Dawand Jones Ohio State 6.6
    43 TE Dalton Kincaid Utah 6.6
    44 CB Cam Smith South Carolina 6.6
    45 ED Byron Young Tennessee 6.6
    46 ED Drew Sanders Arkansas 6.6
    47 OG Cody Mauch North Dakota State 6.6
    48 ED Tuli Tuipulotu USC 6.6
    49 CB Deonte Banks Maryland 6.6
    50 TE Sam LaPorta Iowa 6.6
    51 MLB Ivan Pace Jr. Cincinnati 6.6
    52 WLB SirVocea Dennis Pittsburgh 6.6
    53 CB Tyrique Stevenson Miami 6.6
    54 RB Devon Achane Texas A&M 6.6
    55 WLB DeMarvion Overshown Texas 6.6
    56 DT Bryan Bresee Clemson 6.5
    57 DT Lukas Van Ness Iowa 6.5
    58 QB Hendon Hooker Tennessee 6.5
    59 TE Luke Musgrave Oregon State 6.5
    60 RB Zach Charbonnet UCLA 6.5
    61 CB Jakorian Bennett Maryland 6.5
    62 CB DJ Turner Michigan 6.5
    63 TE Luke Schoonmaker Michigan 6.5
    64 ED DJ Johnson Oregon 6.5
    65 TE Davis Allen Clemson 6.5
    66 RB Roschon Johnson Texas 6.5
    67 OG Andrew Vorhees USC 6.5
    68 ED Felix Anudike-Uzomah Kansas State 6.5
    69 OT Blake Freeland BYU 6.5
    70 ED Mike Morris Michigan 6.5
    71 MLB Noah Sewell Oregon 6.5
    72 MLB Jack Campbell Iowa 6.5
    73 ED Andre Carter II Army 6.5
    74 WLB Daiyan Henley Washington State 6.5
    75 OG Steve Avila TCU 6.5
    76 OT Jaelyn Duncan Maryland 6.5
    77 DT Adetomiwa Adebawore Northwestern 6.5
    78 OC Ricky Stromberg Arkansas 6.5
    79 DT Gervon Dexter Florida 6.5
    80 RB Tank Bigsby Auburn 6.5
    81 WLB Henry To’oTo’o Alabama 6.5
    82 WR Jalin Hyatt Tennessee 6.4
    83 CB Kelee Ringo Georgia 6.4
    84 OC Olusegun Oluwatimi Michigan 6.4
    85 CB Julius Brents Kansas State 6.4
    86 SAF Sydney Brown Illinois 6.4
    87 WR Nathaniel Dell Houston 6.4
    88 QB Jake Haener Fresno State 6.4
    89 CB Eli Ricks Alabama 6.4
    90 SAF JL Skinner Boise State 6.4
    91 WR Xavier Hutchinson Iowa State 6.4
    92 WR Kayshon Boutte LSU 6.4
    93 CB Darius Rush South Carolina 6.4
    94 WR A.T. Perry Wake Forest 6.4
    95 OC Luke Wypler Ohio State 6.4
    96 WR Cedric Tillman Tennessee 6.4
    97 CB Cory Trice Purdue 6.4
    98 CB Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson TCU 6.4
    99 WR Jonathan Mingo Ole Miss 6.4
    100 WR Tyler Scott Cincinnati 6.4
    101 CB Riley Moss Iowa 6.4

    There are 16 cornerbacks who appear in our Top 101, led by Devon Witherspoon from Illinois and Christian Gonzalez from Oregon, both of whom are in our Top 8.

    Along with CB, this year’s EDGE class is heavy as well. Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr. tops the list of both the EDGE class and our entire rankings. While there is a drop from his 7.2 grade to Georgia’s Nolan Smith at a 6.8, there are still 14 players who make the Top 101 from the position and 10 in the first 48.

    This year’s WR class is down compared to recent years, but our Top 101 still sees 13 make the list. Quentin Johnston from TCU leads the way with a 6.8, just ahead of four others who received a 6.7 grade.

    For rankings and player profiles on 400+ players, and much more, including our grading scale, leaderboards, and team pages, go check out nfldraft.sportsinfosolutions.com.

  • NFL Draft AnalySIS: Houston Texans

    NFL Draft AnalySIS: Houston Texans

    Leading up to the NFL Draft, SIS will be publishing team previews for those with Top 10 picks in the draft. Each preview will look at the players who most make sense for that team at that selection based on stats and scouting factors and will include quotes from that player’s scouting report.

    You can find more than 300 scouting reports and much more team analysis at our NFL Draft website.

    The State of the Texans:

    The Texans enter 2023 with their third head coach in three years with DeMeco Ryans returning to the franchise. The Texans are looking to have similar success in rookie production to last season when they got top performances by Jalen Pitre, Derek Stingley Jr. and Dameon Pierce. They are well underway in revamping and rebuilding their offense in hope of landing one of the top QBs in the 2023 draft. 

    However, if the Texans do not believe their starting QB is there, they will have a plethora of options in the class that will be able to provide instant impact on the field.

    #2 Overall

    Bryce Young – QB – Alabama

    Young’s accuracy, awareness, and steadily poised demeanor make him a good starting-level QB, and don’t allow his size concerns to affect his ability to be a true playmaker on the field.

    The Texans have spent the offseason loading up and building for a young QB to come in. If the Panthers take any other player at No. 1, the Texans pick up someone whose poise, leadership, and accuracy will be a constant for their offense. 

    C.J. Stroud – QB – Ohio State

    Stroud has the makings of a high-level NFL starter due to his spot-on accuracy, pocket management, and ability to perform in clutch situations assuming he develops his decision making under pressure.

    Stroud has accuracy and clutch ability to be a long term leader on the offensive side of the ball. We have Young ahead of Stroud in our QB rankings (click here to see them) but both are graded at 6.9, as solid starting quarterbacks within two seasons, just a little bit away from being high-end performers.

    Will Anderson Jr. – ED – Alabama

    Anderson has impressed from his first game at Alabama to his last as a deadly pass rusher and strong run defender, and he has everything it takes to be a top-end EDGE at the next level.

    If neither QB is at the top of the Texans draft board, Will Anderson is the best overall prospect and has proven himself as a consistent and dominant edge defender. His top-end skill set could make him a mainstay on the defensive line.

    Tyree Wilson – ED – Texas Tech

    Wilson is a long, strong power rusher who can rush the quarterback and defend the run, but a lack of speed and agility may be traits that hold him back early in his career.

    Wilson would certainly be a shock to the draft landscape here, but he has all of the skills necessary to be a disruptive and productive rusher for the Texans. His length and power will certainly make him a Day 1 starter.

    To learn more about the Texans and their needs, visit their team page on our NFL Draft website here.

  • NFL Draft AnalySIS: Arizona Cardinals

    NFL Draft AnalySIS: Arizona Cardinals

    Leading up to the NFL Draft, SIS will be publishing team previews for those with Top 10 picks in the draft. Each preview will look at the players who most make sense for that team at that selection based on stats and scouting factors and will include quotes from that player’s scouting report.

    You can find more than 300 scouting reports and much more team analysis at our NFL Draft website.

    The State of the Cardinals:

    The 2022 season was an abject failure for the Arizona Cardinals. Attempting to build off the excitement from 2021’s playoff appearance, they fell flat on their face finishing 4-13 and earning the third overall pick. General Manager Steve Keim and Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury signed extensions that would keep them through 2027 but neither made it to 2023. In Week 14 Kyler Murray tore his ACL putting his status for the start of the 2023 season in jeopardy.

    The Cardinals offense had their struggles but the defense is what really let them down, finishing near the bottom in most defensive efficiency rankings. This team needs an infusion of talent at all three levels immediately. The Cardinals are reported to be shopping the pick, but if they make the decision to stand pat here are four prospects they could be targeting.

    # 3 Overall

    Will Anderson Jr. – Edge – Alabama

    Anderson has impressed from his first game at Alabama to his last as a deadly pass rusher and strong run defender, and he has everything it takes to be a top-end EDGE at the next level.

    Anderson Jr. is the top prospect in the draft and would fill a glaring need as the Cardinals’ Edge group finished 29th in positional Total Points*.

    Total Points is our all-encompassing player value stat, which measures everything a player does on his field.

    Jalen Carter – Defensive Tackle – Georgia

    There are almost no flaws in Carter’s on-field play and with an increased effort and professionalism combined with his ability to force teams to change gameplans, he can put himself in the NFL DPOY discussion every year.

    Replacing J.J. Watt is a tall order but Carter has the on-field ability to become an impact player on a defensive line that is lacking impact talent.

    Devon Witherspoon – Cornerback – Illinois

    Witherspoon has the press-man coverage and ball skills to be a solid starter in any NFL defense, but he will need to improve his open-field tackling and off-man ability to hit his ceiling as a true No. 1, shutdown corner.

    Witherspoon has the highest ceiling of any cornerback and would elevate a group that finished last in positional Total Points.

    Tyree Wilson – Edge – Texas Tech

    Wilson is a long, strong power rusher who can rush the quarterback and defend the run, but a lack of speed and agility may be traits that hold him back early in his career.

    The Cardinals have shown interest in Wilson due to his game-wrecking ability off the edge, and as we noted before, that’s a huge area of need.

    To learn more about the Cardinals and their needs, visit their team page on our NFL Draft website here.

  • Anthony Richardson’s Accuracy: A Closer Look

    Anthony Richardson’s Accuracy: A Closer Look

    While each quarterback in this year’s draft class has their flaws, Anthony Richardson is the one who has unanimously been labeled a project. And, at first glance, that may be fair. Richardson was a first-year starter with a 54% completion rate on a 6-7 team, and he didn’t really start to generate serious buzz until he lit up the drills at the combine. 

    We’ve seen athletic quarterbacks decline to compete in the underwear olympics (the combine) before–Lamar Jackson comes to mind–but perhaps that wasn’t a luxury that Richardson could afford. At any rate, it turned out to be a good business decision, as the Florida signal-caller is now being talked about as a Top 10, or even a Top 5 selection.

    But Richardson is more than just a physically-gifted fixer-upper. He’s consistently shown some high-level quarterback play on film and is more refined than most people think. He generally does a good job of getting through his progressions and throwing with anticipation, and his pocket movement is already very good, especially for a 21-year-old. The results haven’t been there, though, and that’s largely due to issues with accuracy.

    Completion percentage can be misleading, but there’s no getting around the fact that anything in the 50s is worrisome. On-target rate is a better representation of accuracy because it actually seeks to measure the precision of the throw–rather than just the result–but can likewise be muddied by factors such as throw depth.

    Indeed, Richardson attempted higher difficulty throws than most quarterbacks, as his average depth of target (10.7) ranked 10th in the country. Furthermore, his receivers’ ball skills left much to be desired with the Gators ranking 52nd and 58th among Power 5 schools in on-target catch rate and drop rate, respectively. Still, it’s a bad sign that he ranked 95th in catchable rate (79.8%) and 106th in on-target rate (65.4%) among 114 FBS quarterbacks who attempted at least 200 passes last year.

    If there were a holy grail of accuracy metrics (there isn’t), that would be On-Target +/- , which sets a baseline on-target rate for each throw based on factors like throw depth and field location, and then compares the actual result to that expectation. Unfortunately, Richardson also fared poorly in this metric, ranking 104th among the aforementioned group at -4%. Even Kentucky’s Will Levis, another subject of accuracy concerns, ranked 35th at +3%.

    What’s interesting, though, is that if you break this metric down to the route level, Richardson isn’t generally inaccurate. That is, he’s not consistently performing below expectation on most routes. 

    He’s good at throwing a few routes, slightly above average at most routes, and then abysmally bad at a handful of routes. He struggled a lot with in- and out-breakers, with an on-target rate 20% below expectation, and those routes made up about 10% of his attempts. Bubbles and arrow routes proved to be even more difficult at a clip of -25%, and also made up approximately 10% of his throws. 

    Lastly, his OnTgt+/- on scramble drills was -23%, which comprised about 5% of his throws. That component might be especially concerning considering his playmaking ability is a big selling point for him.

    I’m not sure that there’s a smoking gun here that would allow us to wave off these accuracy concerns. These route clusters are different enough from each other that it’s difficult to identify a recurring cause of the symptom. Even then, his On-Target +/- would only be +2% if we stripped all those routes out of the sample, and it’s important to remember that these benchmarks are relative to college play and not the NFL level, where windows get tighter. 

    It would also be disingenuous to assert that a team could scheme to avoid him throwing all of these routes. Whichever franchise takes him will simply have to bank on improvement and live with it in the meantime. Quarterbacks with similar draft profiles like Josh Allen and Justin Herbert have been huge successes, so taking a risk here is tantalizing considering both these recent anecdotes and the fact that there’s no consensus franchise prospect this year like an Andrew Luck or a Trevor Lawrence.

    Even for people like myself who are fans of his game, the accuracy issues have to be reconciled in some way, and the statistics outlined herein cannot do that. It’s my belief that he has fewer obstacles to overcome to become a good NFL starter than most people believe, but the obstacle he does have is a pretty big one. Accuracy is arguably the most important trait for pro quarterbacks, so whoever takes this on will have to fix one big problem rather than several small ones. And whoever does will be making a dart throw.