Category: NFL

  • The most interesting numbers from the NFL Draft

    The most interesting numbers from the NFL Draft

    By KEEGAN ABDOO
    It was a fascinating and exciting NFL Draft, with twists, turns and plenty of interesting selections.

    What numbers were most telling to us about some of the top players selected?

    On Cleveland Browns QB Baker Mayfield
    Baker Mayfield ranked first with a Passing Success Rate of 61% (out of 113 FBS Quarterbacks with 200+ attempts), which is 4.7% better than second and a margin that represents the gap between 2nd and 14th best.

    Mayfield also excelled when plays broke down. He had an 82 percent on-target percentage on 44 throws in those instances.

    On New York Giants RB Saquon Barkley
    There were only eight RBs with at least 100 carries and 50 receptions in 2017. Among them, Barkley’s 7.0 yards/touch, 5.9 yards/attempt and 11.7 yards/reception each ranked first.

    On Denver Broncos Pass Rusher Bradley Chubb
    Bradley Chubb’s 111 pressures were the most in FBS over the last two seasons and 14 more than the second best total, which represents the gap between #2-#10.

    On Browns CB Denzel Ward
    Denzel Ward’s 3.9 Yards Allowed per Target were the best in the nation among CBs with at least 40 targets.

    He was even better in Man Coverage, where he allowed 2.8 Yards Per Target.

    On Bills QB Josh Allen’s escapability
    Josh Allen broke 16 tackles in the pocket last season, which was second only to Lamar Jackson (20). However, he did this on 174 fewer dropbacks.

    Of the 103 QB’s with at least 300 dropbacks last season, Allen’s 4.8% Broken Tackle/Dropback rate led the FBS by a significant amount.

    On a successful Bears LB
    Bears LB Roquan Smith was excellent in man coverage last season:

    Out of 44 LBs with at least 10 man targets, Smith ranked 2nd in Success Rate (83.3%) and Yards/Touch (2.55).

    Success Rate, per Football Outsiders, is how often a defensive player that prevent a successful play by the offense, defined as 45% of needed yards on first down, 60% of needed yards on second down, and 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down.

    On a disruptive CB
    Packers CB Josh Jackson has great ball skills. In 2017, he led the nation with 8 interceptions and ranked 4th among the 100 most targeted cornerbacks with a 31% Pass Disruption Rate.

    On surehanded receivers
    Arizona Cardinals WR Christian Kirk and Jacksonville Jaguars WR D.J. Chark ranked 1-2 in on-target catch percentage among receivers last season. Each caught 84 percent of on-target throws to them.

    On Mason Rudolph being first-round caliber
    When compared to Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen and Lamar Jackson, new Steelers QB Mason Rudolph had the second-highest Independent Quarterback Rating (IQR). IQR is a stat that measures QB effectiveness, taking into account the factors that he most controls.

    Rudolph also had the highest IQR among himself and the first-round quarterbacks when playing against a man defense.

  • Top 5 QB Prospects: Performance by Throw Location

    Top 5 QB Prospects: Performance by Throw Location

    By KEEGAN ABDOO
    Here at Sports Info Solutions, we track the direction and throw depth of every throw made at the FBS level, as well whether the ball was catchable or not. A huge conversation this draft season has been about the top five quarterback prospects and how well their true accuracy was represented by their Completion Percentage. Our On-Target Percentage statistic (simply catchable throws divided by all throws) captures a player’s ball placement ability much better than Completion Percentage, as it isolates a quarterback’s accuracy from his target’s ability to catch the ball.

    On that note, we have visualized each of the top five quarterback prospects’ accuracy and Target Share (percent of total attempts) by location of their throw. The size of the circle represents the Target Share, the color represents their On-Target Percentage relative to FBS average for that location (red = bad, yellow = average, green = good), and the number in the circle is their observed On-Target Percentage. We’ve included both 2016 and 2017 for these players to increase their sample sizes.


    Baker Mayfield


    In summary:
    Was consistently accurate all over the field.

    Baker Mayfield has had above average to elite accuracy almost everywhere on the field. Directionally, he most frequently threw passes between the hashes and to the right sideline outside the numbers.

    From a throw depth perspective, he ranked in the top two (amongst these five QBs) in throws behind the line of scrimmage and in deep and intermediate areas. However, he threw by far the fewest passes in the 0-to-9 yard range of any QB in this group at 33% (which was seven percentage points less than any other QB).

    When comparing his accuracy to FBS average, he had four of the five biggest differences in this group in On-Target Percentage: Deep Right Middle (+32%), Deep Left Middle (+31%), Intermediate Right Outside (+27%), and Deep Right Outside (+18%).


    Sam Darnold


    In summary:
    Could stick a deep throw to the right sideline at an elite level.

    Sam Darnold presented more of a mixed bag. Directionally, he slightly favored his right, especially outside the numbers.

    His accuracy was most impressive compared to FBS average in the Deep Middle (+17%) and Deep Right Outside (+15%), but he attempted three times as many throws (52 attempts vs. 17) to that Deep Right Outside area.


    Josh Rosen


    In summary:
    Majority of throws were short, potential West Coast Offense fit.

    Josh Rosen absolutely loved throwing in that bread basket right in front of him in the short middle—he had a higher percentage of his attempts here than any other of these QBs had in any area (13%).

    Likewise, this conservative throw distribution (whether by scheme or a bad offensive line) showed up again in his deep throw percentage, which ranked last by a considerable margin. By direction, nearly two-thirds of his throws were between the numbers.

    His accuracy didn’t really stand out in any area other than the Intermediate Left Outside (+14%); this was his only area which he placed in the top 20 (of the 100 depth and direction combinations) in terms of the difference between his On-Target Percentage and the FBS average.


    Lamar Jackson


    In summary:
    Threw short the most, deep middle sweet spot.

    Jackson did have the highest percentage of throws to the short area (46%), but he had the second fewest percentage of throws behind the LOS (13%) and lowest in the intermediate area (23%).

    Jackson really loved the Deep Middle—his Target Share in this area (6%) was highest of any prospects in any deep section, and his On-Target Percentage was elite (8% above FBS Average) on a big sample. However, his two most accurate areas compared to FBS average were interestingly both to the left and outside the numbers—specifically the Short Left Outside (+13%) and Intermediate Left Outside (+12%).


    Josh Allen


    In summary:
    Works sideline and deep the most.

    And finally, we have Josh Allen, an inaccurate QB whose arm strength and mobility still entice teams to think about his potential. To be fair, Allen’s throw locations were often to some of the hardest places to complete passes on the field, as his 51% Target Share outside the numbers was 12% more than the next QB (Darnold, 39%).

    Correspondingly, he was averse to throwing in the middle and left middle areas, ranking last in both. He also led in the percentage of his throws that were deep (22%) and intermediate (27%), while having the least amount of easy throws behind the LOS.

    While his accuracy generally was below average, he did excel in the Deep Right Middle compared to FBS average (+19%, which ranked fourth overall among these 100 combinations). However, that was on only 19 attempts, so sample size beware.

    After diving deep into accuracy by ball location, a lot of the narratives from this draft season actually hold up pretty well. Allen was, in fact, asked to make harder throws than everyone else.

    But even after controlling for the difficulty of throws, there is no QB who even came close to Mayfield in terms of being consistently accurate no matter where he threw the ball.