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  • Appreciating The Value of The Tight End

    Appreciating The Value of The Tight End

    Photo: Andy Lewis/Icon Presswire

    When comparing the top 10 tight ends in Receiving Total Points from the 2023 season and the 2024 season, there is a lot of turnover. Only a few names find themselves on both lists at this point of the season. Along with that, there have been a handful of players who have missed significant time due to injury as well, which have impacted their respective teams one way or another.

    2023 Total Points
    George Kittle* 28
    Jake Ferguson 28
    David Njoku* 27
    Travis Kelce 25
    Kyle Pitts 18
    Michael Mayer* 18
    Cole Kmet 18
    Dallas Goedert* 17
    Sam LaPorta 17
    Dalton Schultz 16

    * Missed multiple games this season due to injury

    This season’s top 10 list features a breakout rookie along with a few other young players. Half of the list features tight ends who are still within their first 3 seasons in the NFL. This seems to signal a youth movement at the position.

    2024 Total Points
    Brock Bowers 21
    George Kittle* 18
    Jonnu Smith 16
    Kyle Pitts 15
    Trey McBride* 15
    Hunter Henry 14
    Isaiah Likely* 11
    Dalton Kincaid* 11
    Mike Gesicki 10
    Cade Otton 10

    * Missed at least one game this season due to injury

    The only players who are on both lists are George Kittle and Kyle Pitts. While Pitts has been healthy all year, Kittle has been banged up while still being very productive and a vital piece for the 49ers.

    The 49ers are 0-2 when Kittle doesn’t suit up this season and 1-4 without him since the start of the 2022 season. He’s been dealing with a lingering hamstring injury as well as rib and foot injuries throughout the season. 

    When he doesn’t play the 49ers offense operates virtually the same in terms of personnel groupings, motion percentage, and play action percentage. To my surprise most of the passing stats improve when he’s off the field. Completion percentage is way up, touchdown percentage is up and interception percentage goes down. The one passing area that diminishes without Kittle is yards after catch. Kittle averages 29.5 yards after catch per game, trailing only Brock Bowers among tight ends. The 49ers definitely miss that skill when trying to extend drives in Kittle’s absence.

    That doesn’t tell the whole story though. When Kittle doesn’t suit up the 49ers might miss his presence in the blocking and run game more than the passing game.

    Kittle On the Field Kittle Off the Field
    Yards per Carry 5.6 4.0
    Sack % Allowed 5.2% 7.3%
    Blown Block % 13.3% 17.6%

    He’s such a well rounded tight end that his absence affects the offensive line and the running backs. It’s evident because Kittle is second among tight ends in Total Points on blocking snaps.

    There is a different tight end who was on the top 10 of 2023 who I wanted to look into. Like Kittle, he has missed multiple games this season. His team is currently over .500 though, Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert.

    A hamstring injury cost Goedert three games this season. One big change in the Eagles’ offense this season when Goedert is on field is the amount of passes to the short middle part of the field. 

    44% of throws by Jalen Hurts go to this area compared to 28% when he’s sidelined. Hurts also takes care of the ball much better when he has his reliable tight end. 

    Goedert On the Field Goedert Off the Field
    Touchdown % 6% 3.4%
    Interception % 0% 3.4%

    Another sign of Goedert’s importance for the Eagles is how he steps up on 3rd down to be a major threat. Among tight ends with at least 5 targets on 3rd down, he ranks first in Total Points per route run. For what it’s worth, Kittle ranks third on that list.

    The similarities with Goedert and Kittle don’t stop there; Goedert has a huge impact on the Eagles’ blocking and run game. Just like the 49ers, the Eagles’ sack allowed percentage and blown block percentage go up without Goedert on the field. Also the yards per carry goes from 4.8 without him to 5.8 with him on the field. He’s one of only five tight ends with at least 100 snaps to have 0 blown blocks on the season. For an Eagles team that ranks first in run play percentage, Goedert’s presence as a blocker might get overlooked as a key piece to their whole offensive attack.

    Another “tight end” worth mentioning that doesn’t appear on either top 10 list is Taysom Hill. The unique swiss army knife tight end is asked to do more things on the offensive side of the ball than just about any other player. He’s also missed time this season due to injury and the Saints are 0-4 when he doesn’t play this season (with overlap from Derek Carr’s absence). He’s definitely not a traditional TE, as he has 34 carries on the season with 6 rushing touchdowns and averages a robust 7.9 yards per carry.

    The Saints offense operates with multiple tight ends about 90% of the time when he is on the field compared to about 30% when he is off of it. Hill is usually sharing the field with other tight ends which gives the Saints the freedom to have him in different alignments all over the formation. The offense as a whole has been significantly worse when he is on the sideline.

    On the Field Off the Field Difference
    Total EPA/60 Plays 11 -3 14
    Passing EPA/60 Plays  0 -2 2
    Rushing EPA/60 Plays 23 -5 28

    An individual player who benefits a ton when he is on the field is Alvin Kamara. With teams having to deal with the threat of Hill getting the ball, Kamara has more room to be effective. His yards per carry goes from 3.8 without Hill to 5.9 with him sharing the field. We’ll see if interim head coach Darren Rizzi has more plans to keep Hill heavily involved moving forward, not only as an option himself, but as a decoy as well.

    Diving into the tight end position opened my eyes to how important they are to their teams because of the versatility. Whether it be an extension of the offensive line, catching a 3rd down throw, or even running the ball, having an impactful tight end opens up a team’s offense. We see the large impact missing these high end players have on their respective teams, and we hope everyone stays healthy as the season reaches the stretch run.

  • NFL Statistical Leaderboard Entering Week 11

    NFL Statistical Leaderboard Entering Week 11

    Photo: Charles Brock/Icon Sportswire

    The last few years we’ve been sending out a weekly stat package e-mail to help get you ready for the weekend’s games.

     Hopefully you’ll think this year’s version is been even better. One thing we noticed: Not many people are downloading the attachment. So we’re putting more information into the body of this e-mail. Read to the end. There’s lots of good stuff here.
    Our goal is to bring the stats to you so that you don’t have to go hunting them down.
     
    Let us know that we’ve done that.
    You can e-mail mark@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com for a free one-week subscription to our DataHub Pro, which allows you access to a wealth of information about NFL team and player performance.
    Total Points Leaderboards
    Highlights from the leaderboards in our flagship stat, Total Points, which attempts to measure everything that happens on the field (full primer here):
    * The Rams offense struggled to get into a groove against the Dolphins on Monday night, which only sank them further to a surprisingly-low 26th rank offensively. The missed time from Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua hurt, of course, but their receiving group has still been their best position group, at 16th.
    * Ja’Marr Chase’s 264-yard outburst against the Ravens leapt him to the top of the wide receiver Total Points rankings. His play alone was worth roughly 12 points on the scoreboard, which was more than any quarterback was worth in Week 10.
    * Speaking of Monday night, Dolphins DE Calais Campbell is having a throwback season, currently ranking tied for third at the position in Total Points (and second on a per-snap basis). He had ranked in the top 10 in each of 2016 to 2019, but no better than 26th over the past four years.
    * The 5-interception showing from Jared Goff dropped him several ranks among quarterbacks, and he’s now sitting at 29th among quarterbacks in Total Points per play. He still ranks above his opponent in that game, C.J. Stroud, who sits at 32nd among qualified passers.

    —

    If you’ve read all the way through to here, e-mail mark@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com for a free one-week subscription to our DataHub Pro, which allows you access to a wealth of information about NFL team and player performance.

    —

    Click here for the full Total Points StatPack

    Total Points Power Rankings

    The Top 10 teams in the NFL when taking into account Total Points Per Play for offense, defense, and special teams.

    1. Lions
    2. Bills
    3. Ravens
    4. Chargers
    5. 49ers
    6. Vikings
    7. Commanders
    8. Packers
    9. Chiefs
    10. Cardinals

    Full list

    Top 5 Offenses

    1. Ravens
    2. Commanders
    3. Bills
    4. Lions
    5. Falcons

    Full list

    Top 5 Defenses
    1. Chargers
    2. Vikings
    3. Titans
    4. Broncos
    5. Eagles
    Total Points Leaders: Quarterbacks
    1. Lamar Jackson
    2. Joe Burrow
    3. Patrick Mahomes
    4. Bo Nix
    5. Jayden Daniels
    Total Points Leaders: Running Backs
    1. James Conner
    2. Derrick Henry
    3. Bijan Robinson
    4. Najee Harris
    5. Zach Charbonnet
    Total Points Leaders: Wide Receivers
    1. Ja’Marr Chase
    2. Chris Godwin
    3. Khalil Shakir
    4. A.J. Brown
    5. Jauan Jennings
    Total Points Leaders: Defensive Ends
    1. Jared Verse
    2. T.J. Watt
    3. Calais Campbell
    4. Greg Rousseau
    5. Trey Hendrickson
    Total Points Leaders: Linebackers
    1. Fred Warner
    2. Brian Burns
    3. Zack Baun
    4. Khalil Mack
    5. Jamien Sherwood

    Top 10 list

    Total Points Leaders: Cornerbacks

    1. Pat Surtain II
    2. Kamari Lassiter
    3. Jaylon Jones
    4. Derek Stingley Jr.
    5. Paulson Adebo

    Top 10 list

    Total Points Leaders: Safeties

    1. Kerby Joseph
    2. Amani Hooker
    3. Nick Cross
    4. Julian Love
    5. Jessie Bates

    Top 10 list

    Charting Leaderboards

    Leaderboards in various statistical categories based on video review by our staff, including long passes, yards after contact, and pressures.

    * The potential return of Nico Collins is crucial for the Texans, but it’s a two way street when it comes to C.J. Stroud’s deep ball performance. He has thrown the second-most passes of at least 20 air yards (40), but is tied for 11th in completions on those throws (12). Only Caleb Williams and Deshaun Watson have thrown a lower percentage of catchable deep passes.

    * The Vikings’ receivers have done Sam Darnold many favors over the course of the year. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison have each caught all of their catchable deep passes this year, making up 13 of Darnold’s league-leading 18 deep completions.

    * Washington’s Dante Fowler Jr. has bounced around quite a bit over his career, but he’s making his mark in his first season as a Commander. He leads the NFL in sack rate and is backing that up with a 5th-ranked Pressure% +/-, which expresses how well he’s pressured the quarterback given his alignment and the game situation.

    —
     If you’ve read all the way through to here, e-mail mark@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com for a free one-week subscription to our DataHub Pro, which allows you access to a wealth of information about NFL team and player performance.
    —

    Most Completions, Pass Attempts 20+ Yards Downfield

    1. Sam Darnold 18
    2. Jordan Love 16
    3. Justin Herbert, Bo Nix 15
    5. Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins 14

    Top 10 list

    Most Receptions, Targets 20+ Yards Downfield

    1. George Pickens 10
    2. Darnell Mooney, Justin Jefferson, Jayden Reed 9
    5. Alec Pierce, Courtland Sutton 8

    Top 10 list

    Most Yards After Contact (Rushing)

    1. Derrick Henry 562
    2. Saquon Barkley 526
    3. Chuba Hubbard 500
    4. Josh Jacobs 496
    5. Bijan Robinson 487

    Top 10 list

    Most QB Pressures

    1. Trey Hendrickson 49
    2. Zach Allen 44
    3. Will McDonald IV 42
    4. Brian Burns, Maxx Crosby 41

    Top 10 list

    Most Pressures Above Expectation

    1. Aidan Hutchinson 16.5
    2. Trey Hendrickson 14.9
    3. Zach Allen 12.8
    4. Myles Garrett 12.0
    5. Will McDonald IV 11.2

    Top 10 list

    Matchups and Mismatches

    When we look at matchups by unit and comparing the teams playing a particular game, there are intriguing matchups and mismatches each week.

    Here are some we noticed:

    (All references to rankings are in the context of Total Points Per Play)

    * The Ravens bring the best offense in the NFL into Pittsburgh, hoping to exploit a beatable Steelers secondary. Baltimore ranks 1st in Passing and Receiving, while the Steelers rank 26th in Pass Coverage (and no worst than 3rd in the other defensive categories).

    * Bo Nix has been a Total Points darling this year, pushing the Broncos‘ Passing rank to 3rd. He’s made a reputation for escaping pressure, but he might not have to worry that much when facing the Falcons‘ 31st-ranked Pass Rush.

    * The Chargers are a little banged up in the secondary, but on the season their Pass Coverage ranks 1st in Total Points per play. They’ll need to be at full strength to take on the Bengals, ranked 2nd in Passing and 6th in Receiving.

    Find your own matchups and mismatches here. You can also find much of this information at the SIS Datahub.

    —

    If you’ve read all the way through this newsletter, e-mail mark@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com for a free one-week subscription to our DataHub Pro, which allows you access to a wealth of information about NFL team and player performance.

    Note: These rankings are based on unrounded totals which virtually eliminates ties between players or teams

  • NFL Statistical Leaders Entering Week 10

    NFL Statistical Leaders Entering Week 10

    Photo: Charles Brock/Icon Sportswire

    Hi!

    The last few years we’ve been sending out a weekly stat package e-mail to help get you ready for the weekend’s games.

    Hopefully you’ll think this year’s version is been even better. One thing we noticed: Not many people are downloading the attachment. So we’re putting more information into the body of this e-mail. Read to the end. There’s lots of good stuff here.
    Our goal is to bring the stats to you so that you don’t have to go hunting them down.
    Let us know that we’ve done that.
    You can e-mail mark@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com for a free one-week subscription to our DataHub Pro, which allows you access to a wealth of information about NFL team and player performance.
    Total Points Leaderboards
    Highlights from the leaderboards in our flagship stat, Total Points, which attempts to measure everything that happens on the field (full primer here):

     

    * There’s a lot of parity within the list of the Top 10 NFL teams by Totals Points Per Play. The teams ranked 6 through 10 all stand within one point of being in the Top 5.

    * All of the teams that rank Top 5 in Offense are among the Top 10 teams overall. But the Titans have the No. 2 defense and rank No. 26 overall because their offense ranks last in Total Points Per Play.

    * If you download the Statpack, you’ll see that the Buccaneers have the Total Points leader both among tackles (Tristan Wirfs) and guards (Cody Mauch). The Buccaneers rank No. 3 in Blocking Total Points behind the Lions and Bills.

    * Third-year receiver Khalil Shakir has made a nice move up the Total Points leaderboard such that he now ranks No. 2 among wide receivers in both Total Points and Total Points Per 60 Plays.

    * One of the keys to that Titans’ No. 2 defense is defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons, who leads the position in Total Points Per 60 Plays. Another is Amani Hooker, who ranks No. 2 among safeties in Total Points and ranks No. 3 at that position in Total Points Per 60 Plays.

    —

    If you’ve read all the way through to here, e-mail mark@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com for a free one-week subscription to our DataHub Pro, which allows you access to a wealth of information about NFL team and player performance.

    —

    Click here for the full Total Points StatPack

    Total Points Power Rankings

    The Top 10 teams in the NFL when taking into account Total Points Per Play for offense, defense, and special teams.

    1. Lions
    2. Ravens
    3. Bills
    4. 49ers
    5. Chargers
    6. Vikings
    7. Commanders
    8. Chiefs
    9. Falcons
    10. Broncos

    Full list

    Top 5 Offenses

    1. Ravens
    2. Commanders
    3. Bills
    4. Lions
    5. Falcons

    Full list
     

    Top 5 Defenses

    1. Chargers
    2. Titans
    3. Vikings
    4. Broncos
    5. Lions

    Full list
     

    Total Points Leaders: Quarterbacks

    1. Lamar Jackson
    2. Joe Burrow
    3. Bo Nix
    4. Jayden Daniels
    5. Patrick Mahomes

    Top 10 list
     

    Total Points Leaders: Running Backs

    1. James Conner
    2. Derrick Henry
    3. Najee Harris
    4. Zach Charbonnet
    5. Bijan Robinson

    Top 10 list
     

    Total Points Leaders: Wide Receivers

    1. Chris Godwin
    2. Khalil Shakir
    3. Nico Collins
    4. Zay Flowers
    5. A.J. Brown

    Top 10 list
     

    Total Points Leaders: Defensive Ends

    1. T.J. Watt
    2. Aidan Hutchinson
    3. Trey Hendrickson
    4. Myles Garrett
    5. Greg Rousseau

    Top 10 list
     

    Total Points Leaders: Linebackers

    1. Fred Warner
    2. Brian Burns
    3. Khalil Mack
    4. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
    5. Jamien Sherwood

    Top 10 list

    Total Points Leaders: Cornerbacks

    1. Pat Surtain II
    2. Jaylon Jones
    3. Mike Hughes
    4. Derek Stingley Jr.
    5. Paulson Adebo

    Top 10 list

    Total Points Leaders: Safeties

    1. Kerby Joseph
    2. Amani Hooker
    3. Nick Cross
    4. Julian Love
    5. Jessie Bates

    Top 10 list
     

    Note: These rankings are based on unrounded totals which virtually eliminates ties between players or teams

     

    Charting Leaderboards

    Leaderboards in various statistical categories based on video review by our staff, including long passes, yards after contact, and pressures.

    * Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed now has 9 receptions on 10 targets that were at least 20 yards downfield. All of the other receivers with at least 8 targets have a completion percentage of less than 65%.
    * James Conner’s 46 broken and missed tackles are 12 more than the next-closest player. And that’s not just about volume. Conner has the highest percentage of runs with a broken or missed tackle of anyone, 26%, just ahead of Caleb Williams.
    * Trey Hendrickson now leads the NFL in pressures and is just behind Aidan Hutchinson in pressures above expectation. Yes, Hutchinson was that far ahead of everyone else that he’s still in the lead even though he played in only 5 games.
    —
     If you’ve read all the way through to here, e-mail mark@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com for a free one-week subscription to our DataHub Pro, which allows you access to a wealth of information about NFL team and player performance.
    —

    Most Completions, Pass Attempts 20+ Yards Downfield

    1. Sam Darnold 17
    2. Jordan Love 16
    3. Bo Nix, Justin Herbert, Geno Smith 14

    Top 10 list

    Most Receptions, Targets 20+ Yards Downfield

    1. Justin Jefferson, Jayden Reed, Darnell Mooney, George Pickens 9
    5. DK Metcalf, Courtland Sutton 7

    Top 10 list

    Most Yards After Contact (Rushing)

    1. Derrick Henry 516
    2. Josh Jacobs 495
    3. Saquon Barkley 490
    4. James Conner 450
    5. Najee Harris 445

    Top 10 list

    Most QB Pressures

    1. Trey Hendrickson 42
    2. Will McDonald IV 40
    3. Zach Allen 39
    4. Aidan Hutchinson 38
    5. Maxx Crosby, Jonathan Greenard 37

    Top 10 list

    Most Pressures Above Expectation

    1. Aidan Hutchinson 16.5
    2. Trey Hendrickson 14.7
    3. Myles Garrett 12.0
    4. Zach Allen 11.4
    5. Jonathan Greenard 10.6

    Top 10 list

    Matchups and Mismatches

    When we look at matchups by unit and comparing the teams playing a particular game, there are intriguing matchups and mismatches each week.

    Here are some we noticed:

    (All references to rankings are in the context of Total Points Per Play)

    * The Cowboys will be in for a challenge in a couple of respects this week. They rank last in the NFL in Run Defense while the Eagles rank No. 8 in Rushing. Dallas also ranks 27th in Blocking and will be going up against Philadelphia’s No. 1 ranked Pass Rush.

    * The Chargers defense may feast on the Titans. Their Pass Coverage ranks No. 1 and will be facing a team that ranks 30th in Passing and 31st in Receiving.

    * One highlight of the Washington-Pittsburgh matchup: The Steelers have the No. 1 Run Defense. The Commanders rank No. 2 in Rushing. 

    * The 49ers rank No. 2 in Receiving and are going against a Buccaneers team that ranks No. 31 in Pass Coverage.

    Find your own matchups and mismatches here. You can also find much of this information at the SIS Datahub.

    —

    If you’ve read all the way through this newsletter, e-mail mark@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com for a free one-week subscription to our DataHub Pro, which allows you access to a wealth of information about NFL team and player performance.

  • How the Eagles and Texans Have Coped Without Their Star Receivers

    How the Eagles and Texans Have Coped Without Their Star Receivers

    The 2024 NFL Season has not been kind to leading wide receivers from last season, as many have had unfortunate injury luck. The table below shows the 10 leading WRs in Receiving Total Points in 2023. Six of the 10 have missed at least one game due to injury this season. That number could rise to seven with CeeDee Lamb’s status in question this week due to a shoulder injury suffered during last week’s loss to the Atlanta Falcons. 

    2023 Total Points
    Amon-Ra St. Brown 42
    Puka Nacua* 38
    Brandon Aiyuk* 36
    CeeDee Lamb 36
    Nico Collins* 36
    DK Metcalf* 34
    Tyreek Hill 34
    A.J. Brown* 33
    Deebo Samuel* 33
    DJ Moore 33

    * Missed at least one game due to injury

    These injuries have opened the door for a new wave of wide receivers to top our 2024 Total Points leaderboard. Now, this list isn’t perfect as some teams have had byes, and some haven’t, but here is the current 2024 leaderboard: 

    2024 Total Points
    Chris Godwin* 20
    Nico Collins* 19
    Khalil Shakir 18
    A.J. Brown* 16
    Zay Flowers 16
    Ja’Marr Chase 14
    Josh Downs 14
    Jauan Jennings* 13
    Jalen Tolbert 13
    Justin Jefferson 13

    * Missed at least one game due to injury

    There are some familiar faces in Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase and we also see an influx of youth, with guys like Khalil Shakir and Zay Flowers in the top five. I can’t help but notice that there are still have four players that have missed games due to injury in the top 10, and specifically three in the top five. Chris Godwin was having a fantastic season before suffering a gruesome season-ending ankle injury on Monday Night Football against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 7.

    This article will focus on A.J. Brown and Nico Collins, two dominant WRs who cracked the top five despite only playing in five games this season, including games they left due to injury. 

    Brown and Collins are prototypical “X” WRs in the NFL who are often able to physically overmatch opposing defensive backs due to sheer size and athleticism. These types of receivers do not grow on trees, which is why both of these guys were paid big money by their respective teams. Brown and Collins earn every penny they make as this chart showing Passing EPA Per 60 Plays splits with each player on and off the field shows: 

    On-Field Off-Field Difference
    A.J. Brown 16 -3 +19
    Nico Collins 12 -6 +18

    To no surprise, the Eagles and Texans passing offenses have been 19 and 18 EPA per 60 plays better with Brown and Collins on the field, respectively. That’s more than a touchdown per game on average. 

    Let’s take a deeper dive into how these offenses coped without their star wide receiver. 

    Philadelphia Eagles

    A portion of the Eagles fanbase wanted Head Coach Nick Sirianni to also lose his job and despite a 6-2 start to this season, it still seems like some fans still want him gone. However, they have won their last four games after starting the season 2-2. It’s no coincidence that coincides with the return of A.J. Brown from injury. They are 5-0 in games he plays and 1-2 in games that he has not played. Brown has been top 10 in Total Points among wide receivers every season since being traded during the 2022 NFL Draft from the Titans to the Eagles. That trend should continue if he’s healthy.

    It doesn’t appear like the Eagles made any drastic schematic changes to account for Brown being out of the lineup. As I mentioned earlier, a player of Brown’s size and caliber is irreplaceable. Just ask Titans fans. This led to a drop in efficiency while Brown was out, as we can see below: 

    Eagles with A.J. Brown

    On-Field Off-Field
    Completion Percentage 70.5% 69.1%
    Catchable Percentage 86.5% 87.4%
    ADot 8.3 8.0
    Yards Per Attempt 9.6 7.0
    Yards Per Dropback 7.9 6.1
    Touchdown Percentage 6.7% 2.7%
    Interception Percentage 1.9% 1.8%

    The sample size for the on-off splits for dropbacks and pass attempts are very close to 50/50 giving us a great sample to pull from. The drop in EPA for the passing game doesn’t seem to be because of Hurts playing poorly without Brown, as his completion percentage, catchable percentage, and interception percentage are all pretty similar. The marginal decrease in ADoT with Brown off the field shows that Hurts was still willing to push the ball down the field despite being without his top receiver. So why did yards per attempt and yards per dropback decrease significantly? 

    The Eagles missed the yards after catch ability that A.J. Brown brings to the table with his size and speed. The Eagles average 2.1 yards more after the catch with Brown on the field this season. Last year, Brown ranked 4th in yards after contact and 11th in yards after catch overall. This is what makes a player like Brown special and tough to replace. 

    The Eagles need Brown to stay healthy and available as they battle the Commanders for first place in the NFC East. He picked up a minor knee injury in this past week’s game against the Jaguars and is now listed as questionable for this week’s game against the Cowboys. 

    Houston Texans

    No one has to have been more thrilled with the arrival of C.J. Stroud in Houston last year than Nico Collins. He has emerged as one of the top wide receivers in the NFL in the past year and a half and was handsomely compensated for his performance with a contract of 20-plus million dollars per year this past offseason.

    It’s been a rough showing for Stroud and the Texans passing offense with the absence of Nico Collins combined with Stefon Diggs being lost for the season after being injured in Week 8. It hasn’t been particularly pretty either and there is blame to be passed around to all of this offense. 

    Stroud has been under constant pressure all year. He ranks 2nd in pressure rate and 7th in sack rate among passers with at least 100 attempts. Since Collins went out in Week 6, he has been pressured 66 times and taken 16 sacks, both of which lead the league. 

    Stroud’s sacks-per-pressure rate increased by about six percentage points during this timespan showing that he misses his go-to-guy when he’s under pressure. Stroud’s Passing EPA stats were good when he was facing all that pressure with Nico on the field, but since then his performance under pressure has dropped off a cliff. Stroud’s play has seemed to dip the last four weeks as we can see in the table below: 

    Texans with Nico Collins

    On-Field Off-Field
    Completion Percentage 69.7% 57.7%
    Catchable Percentage 81.2% 74.1%
    ADoT 7.7 8.1
    Yards Per Attempt 8.4 6.2
    Yards Per Dropback 7.1 5.0
    Touchdown Percentage 4.9% 2.4%
    Interception Percentage 1.4% 1.2%

    Unlike Jalen Hurts, Stroud’s completion percentage and catchable percentage have dropped a pretty significant amount with Collins off the field. Stroud’s ADoT marginally increases compared to marginal decrease we had for Hurts, signaling that Stroud has even been more willing to push the ball down the field without his star man. Similar to the Eagles, part of it was because of a disastrous performance in Week 9 without Collins and Diggs in which Stroud had a -12 passing EPA. That ranked 2nd-worst that week behind Jameis Winston. 

    The Texans entered the season with Super Bowl aspirations after an exciting, successful first season with C.J. Stroud along with some exciting offseason acquisitions in Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon. The Diggs acquisition had gone well enough before the season-ending injury, but his absence only exacerbates the need for Collins to return to the lineup. Even with his return, if the Texans can’t find a way to protect Stroud, Collins and Stroud can only do so much to paper over the glaring weakness of their offensive line. 

    Opposing defenses seem to be taking notice of these problems and are exploiting them with Collins out of the lineup: 

    Defenses vs Texans

    Collins On-Field Collins Off-Field
    Man Coverage 14% 29%
    Zone Coverage 72% 60%
    Blitz Percentage 25% 30%
    Avg Defenders in Box 6 7

    As you can see, defenses are playing man coverage twice as often with Collins off the field while blitzing at a five percent higher rate. Teams also seem less afraid of being beaten over the top and are willing to add an extra defender in the box to stop the run.

    There is optimism that Collins could return to the field soon and the Texans could definitely use him this week in prime time on Sunday Night Football as they take on the NFC’s best in the Lions and their man-coverage heavy defense. If Collins can’t go on Sunday, you can bet Aaron Glenn and the Lions defense will play lots of man-coverage while sending lots of pressure, daring a Texans receiver to win a one-on-one battle.

    If Collins can play, that task is easier said than done.

    Conclusion

    Both of these offenses have suffered without their star WRs. The Eagles missed the playmaking ability of Brown after the catch and the Texans, well, they just miss Collins in general. Houston is suffering all-around because of his absence. Defenses were already exploiting a weak Texans offensive line, but now are also tightening up in coverage as teams no longer fear a passing attack without Collins and Diggs. 

    The main difference between these two offenses? The offensive line, without a doubt. The Eagles boast one of the best offensive lines in football while the Texans might have one of the worst. That clearly makes a big difference.

  • Assessing The NFL Awards Field Using Total Points And IQR

    Assessing The NFL Awards Field Using Total Points And IQR

    Photo: Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire

    We are (unofficially) halfway through the 2024 NFL season, so why not break down the current state of the awards markets. There are a lot of usual suspects at the top of the odds boards, like Josh Allen for MVP and T.J. Watt for Defensive Player of the Year, and some young stars at the top of the Rookie of the Year markets like Jayden Daniels and Jared Verse.

    Is a player required to reach a threshold of play at this point in the season to have a chance at winning their respective award at season’s end? Are the favorites the locked-in winners through only 8 weeks? Each award is different and can vary on a multitude of factors that are reflected on the voters ballot, such as current production and prior prestige.

    For our attempt, we dive into the world of Total Points and look at the ranking of past winners 8 weeks through the year to box in the set of candidates for 2024. The rank reflects where a player stood in their given award pool through 8 weeks of the regular season. For example, the OPOY rankings reflect an offensive player’s ranking without quarterbacks, as the award usually goes to the most productive non-quarterback (QB winners will be addressed). This attempt tries to answer if there is a certain production threshold required at this point to even have a chance at winning.

    The awards covered are MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, and Defensive Rookie of the Year. Comeback Player of the Year has an additional sentimental layer factored in and cannot be assessed strictly by production.

    Without further ado, let’s dive in!

    Offensive Player of the Year

    Year Player Position Total Points Rank
    2016 Matt Ryan QB 3*
    2017 Todd Gurley RB 22
    2018 Patrick Mahomes QB 1*
    2019 Michael Thomas WR 16
    2020 Derrick Henry RB 3
    2021 Cooper Kupp WR 1
    2022 Justin Jefferson WR 7
    2023 Christian McCaffrey RB 11

    * Overall Offensive Total Points Ranking

    Recent history suggests that the OPOY winner can come from as far down as 16 with the exception of Todd Gurley in 2017, where he made the climb from 22nd to 1st! Matt Ryan and Patrick Mahomes both won while putting up historic offensive numbers at quarterback.

    Players that win this award push historic production numbers at their positions, like Mahomes breaking the passing yards record, Jefferson becoming the youngest player to lead the league in receptions and receiving yards, and Henry eclipsing 2,000 rushing yards in 2020.

    Somehow, someway, Derrick Henry is pushing historic numbers in his age 30 season with 946 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns, both league bests from a rushing standpoint. This has propelled him to the top of the odds board as a +125 favorite.

    From a Total Points perspective, Henry is 2nd among offensive players, trailing James Conner (+40000!) Conner is Top 10 in rushing yards and has scored 4 touchdowns, but his league leading 36 broken and missed tackles propel him to the top of the Total Points leaderboard as he controls the means of production. 

    George Kittle, Najee Harris (2nd in broken and missed tackles himself), and the injured Chris Godwin round out the Top 5.

    Offensive Rookie of the Year

    Year Player Position Total Points Rank
    2016 Dak Prescott QB 1
    2017 Alvin Kamara RB 6
    2018 Saquon Barkley RB 1
    2019 Kyler Murray QB 2
    2020 Justin Herbert QB 2
    2021 Ja’Marr Chase WR 3
    2022 Garrett Wilson WR 8
    2023 C.J. Stroud QB 1

    There is a pretty stark trend for OROY. By this point in the season, a player has to be in the Top 10 and most likely in the Top 3. And given the current OROY Total Points leaderboard, there is a good chance this happens.

    Bo Nix has the top spot with 65 Total Points, followed by Jayden Daniels with 59 and Caleb Williams with 26. This may come as a surprise given Daniels is the clear cut favorite in the market at -400, followed by Williams at +1000 and Nix at +1400.

    From a counting stats perspective, Nix trails Daniels by 206 yards, but bests him by one passing touchdown. On the ground, Daniels has Nix beat by 191 yards and both have four rushing scores.

    The first non-QB on the list is Brock Bowers at 5th with 16 Total Points. Bowers leads the league (not just rookies) with 52 receptions and is just outside the Top 10 with 535 receiving yards.

    Defensive Player of the Year

    Year Player Position Total Points Rank

    (Secondary Included)

    		 Total Points Rank

    (Secondary Not Included)
    2016 Khalil Mack DE 113 51
    2017 Aaron Donald DT 53 22
    2018 Aaron Donald DT 2 1
    2019 Stephon Gilmore CB 1 NA
    2020 Aaron Donald DT 14 3
    2021 T.J. Watt OLB 24 9
    2022 Nick Bosa DE 34 14
    2023 Myles Garrett DE 7 3

    The Defensive Player of the Year award is a bit tricky to decipher because secondary players can accumulate Total Points at a much higher clip than any of the other positions. This is due to big plays that can happen on 1-on-1 opportunities like interceptions, touchdowns, etc. 

    When looking at the past few seasons, it is apparent that the winner is likely to be a pass rusher with prominent regard from prior performance. All of the players on the list were an All-Pro at one point prior to them winning the award.

    The Top 2 in Total Points on the non-secondary list are Fred Warner and T.J. Watt, respectively. Ironically, Warner has accumulated the majority of his Total Points on pass defense with 26 out of his 36 and leads all linebackers with 2 INTs. Watt is T-7th with 6.5 sacks and is Top 10 in both Pass Rush Total Points and Run Defense Total Points. 

    If Warner doesn’t keep up the Pass Coverage production and Watt continues the pace in both the Pass Rush and in Run Defense, Watt will take control of the top spot soon.

    Defensive Rookie of the Year

    Year Player Position Total Points Rank

    (Secondary Included)

    		 Total Points Rank (Secondary Not Included)
    2016 Joey Bosa DE 29 12
    2017 Marshon Lattimore CB 1 NA
    2018 Shaq Leonard LB 2 1
    2019 Nick Bosa DE 2 2
    2020 Chase Young DE 12 3
    2021 Micah Parsons DE 3 1
    2022 Sauce Gardner CB 1 NA
    2023 Will Anderson Jr. DE 5 2

    This one fits the best into a clear narrative. Other than 2016, all of the winners were either in the Top 3 in non-secondary Total Points rankings or were at the top of secondary rankings halfway through the year. 

    Projecting that to this season, we see a Top 3 of Jared Verse with 20 Total Points, Edgerrin Cooper with 12, and Laiatu Latu with 12. Verse is the odds on favorite to win at -120 with Latu at +600 next. Cooper is all the way down at +3000. Cooper is T-9th with 9 tackles for loss and is coming off his best game with 9 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, and a forced fumble.

    Including secondary players, Calen Bullock and Kamari Lassiter are at the top of the leaderboard and both have been stalwarts in Houston’s secondary. Lassiter is leading the league in completion percentage allowed at 29%.

    MVP

    Year Player Total Points Rank  SIS Independent Quarterback Rating Rank
    2016 Matt Ryan 3 2
    2017 Tom Brady 1 4
    2018 Patrick Mahomes 1 2
    2019 Lamar Jackson 14 13
    2020 Aaron Rodgers 5 2
    2021 Aaron Rodgers 13 12
    2022 Patrick Mahomes 2 2
    2023 Lamar Jackson 3 3

    Only Lamar Jackson (2019) and Aaron Rodgers (2021) were outside of the Top 10 at this point in the season when they won their MVP awards. All of the others were in the Top 5. Team success also plays a large role in this award, with all of the quarterbacks on the list except Matt Ryan leading their team to the No. 1 seed in the playoffs.

    In addition to Total Points, the last six winners of the MVP award went to the leader in SIS’ Independent Quarterback Rating at the end of the year and all but two (the same two above) were in the Top 4 through Week 8.

    Currently, Lamar is the Total Points leader with 92. The next closest is Joe Burrow with 69 followed by Nix, Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts to round out the Top 5. In IQR, Jackson once again has the lead at 121.8 followed by Josh Allen at 113.6. Sam Darnold, Burrow, and Jared Goff round out the Top 5.

    Josh Allen is the current favorite at +270, which makes sense from an IQR perspective. He does rank only 8th in Total Points and has some ground to make up on Jackson (+310) who is chasing his 3rd MVP and in the driver’s seat metrically.

    Conclusion

    Awards are difficult because the winners are determined by a person’s vote and not a machine, but there are metrics that certainly have high correlation when finding the winner. Total Points and IQR are good at this given we are looking for a range of players at this point in the season rather than pinpointing the winner. Only time will tell with over half of the season yet to go where the awards will land.

  • NFL Statistical Leaders Entering Week 9

    NFL Statistical Leaders Entering Week 9

    Photo: Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire

    Hi!

    The last few years we’ve been sending out a weekly stat package e-mail to help get you ready for the weekend’s games.

     Hopefully you’ll think this year’s version is been even better. One thing we noticed: Not many people are downloading the attachment. So we’re putting more information into the body of this e-mail. Read to the end. There’s lots of good stuff here.
    Our goal is to bring the stats to you so that you don’t have to go hunting them down.
     
    Let us know that we’ve done that.
    Please share any feedback on these info packages. You can contact us at mark@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com
    Total Points Leaderboards
    Highlights from the leaderboards in our flagship stat, Total Points, which attempts to measure everything that happens on the field (full primer here):

    * Only two teams rank in the Top 10 in Total Points Per Play on both offense and defense – the Bills (2nd and 7th, respectively) and the Chiefs (6th and 4th). The big imbalances are with the Ravens (1st and 25th) and Chargers (28th and 1st).

    * The 49ers have the highest ranking among teams with a .500 or worse record. They check in at No. 7 overall and rank No. 7 on offense and No. 11 on defense. 

    * Eleven teams have a worse record than the 3-4 Cowboys but Dallas ranks 31st overall in Total Points Per Play. The Cowboys rank 26th on offense and 31st on defense.

    * Best game by a QB last week per Points Above Average? That was by Bo Nix, who now ranks 3rd in Total Points and 4th in Total Points Per Play among quarterbacks this season. On a per-play basis, he’s been a match for Patrick Mahomes.

    * George Kittle had a big game against the Cowboys with 6 receptions for 128 yards and a touchdown. He widened his lead in Total Points among tight ends (he has 23, next-closest is 18) and took over the top spot in Totals Points Per Play (3.6) in that win.

    * A.J. Terrell led all cornerbacks with 10 Pass Defense Points Saved in Week 8 and vaulted to No.3 among cornerbacks in Total Points for the season. Terrell, a second-team All-Pro selection in 2021 had an interception in the Falcons’ win over the Buccaneers. His 40 tackles in 2024 are only 5 fewer than he had all last season.

     —

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    Click here for the full Total Points StatPack

    Total Points Power Rankings

    The Top 10 teams in the NFL when taking into account Total Points Per Play for offense, defense, and special teams.

    1. Lions
    2. Bills
    3. Chiefs
    4. Broncos
    5. Ravens
    6. Vikings
    7. 49ers
    8. Falcons
    9. Seahawks
    10. Chargers

    Full list

    Top 5 Offenses

    1. Ravens
    2. Bills
    3. Lions
    4. Falcons
    5. Commanders

    Full list

     

    Top 5 Defenses

    1. Chargers
    2. Broncos
    3. Titans
    4. Chiefs
    5. Texans

    Full list

    Total Points Leaders: Quarterbacks

    1. Lamar Jackson
    2. Joe Burrow
    3. Bo Nix
    4. Patrick Mahomes
    5. Jalen Hurts

    Top 10 list

    Total Points Leaders: Running Backs

    1. James Conner
    2. Derrick Henry
    3. Najee Harris
    4. Kenneth Walker III
    5. Justice Hill

    Top 10 list

    Total Points Leaders: Wide Receivers

    1. Chris Godwin
    2. Nico Collins
    3. A.J. Brown
    4. Khalil Shakir
    5. Ja’Marr Chase

    Top 10 list

    Total Points Leaders: Defensive Ends

    1. T.J. Watt
    2. Aidan Hutchinson
    3. Myles Garrett
    4. Will McDonald IV
    5. Greg Rousseau

    Top 10 list

    Total Points Leaders: Linebackers

    1. Fred Warner
    2. Brian Burns
    3. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
    4. Jamien Sherwood
    5. Andrew Van Ginkel

    Top 10 list

    Total Points Leaders: Cornerbacks

    1. Jaylon Jones
    2. Pat Surtain II
    3. A.J. Terrell
    4. D.J. Reed
    5. Mike Hughes

    Top 10 list

    Total Points Leaders: Safeties

    1. Kerby Joseph
    2. Julian Love
    3. Amani Hooker
    4. Nick Cross
    5. Xavier McKinney

    Top 10 list

    Note: These rankings are based on unrounded totals which virtually eliminates ties between players or teams

    Charting Leaderboards

    Leaderboards in various statistical categories based on video review by our staff, including long passes, yards after contact, and pressures.

    * Only two quarterbacks have completed more than half of their pass attempts thrown more than 20 yards downfield – Jared Goff (8-of-13) and Sam Darnold (14-of-24). Darnold’s 14 deep completions lead the NFL. He leads in deep completions but ranks outside the Top 15 in deep pass attempts.

    * Najee Harris continues to just battle against opposing defenses. He’s had three straight 100-yard rushing games, netting at least 70 yards after contact in each one. Harris has 239 rushing yards after contact the last three games after totaling 206 in his first five games.

    * Broncos defensive end Zach Allen has played six seasons in the NFL and has never garnered any awards for his play. But 2024 might be different. Allen ranks 2nd in the NFL in both pressures (37) and Pressures Above Expectation (11.4).

    —
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    Most Completions, Pass Attempts 20+ Yards Downfield

    1. Sam Darnold 14
    2. Trevor Lawrence 13
    3. Jordan Love, Dak Prescott 12
    5. Bo Nix, Aaron Rodgers, Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert, Kirk Cousins, Josh Allen 11

    Top 10 list

     

    Most Receptions, Targets 20+ Yards Downfield

    1. George Pickens 9
    2. Darnell Mooney 8
    3. DK Metcalf 7
    4. Terry McLaurin, Justin Jefferson, Brian Thomas Jr., Marvin Harrison Jr., Alec Pierce 6

    Top 10 list

     

    Most Yards After Contact (Rushing)

    1. Najee Harris 445
    2. Derrick Henry 443
    3. Josh Jacobs 422
    4. Jordan Mason 410
    5. Saquon Barkley 404

    Top 10 list

     

    Most QB Pressures

    1. Aidan Hutchinson 38
    2. Zach Allen 37
    3. Trey Hendrickson 35
    4. Will McDonald IV, Brian Burns, Nick Bosa 34

    Top 10 list

     

    Most Pressures Above Expectation

    1. Aidan Hutchinson 16.5
    2. Zach Allen 11.4
    3. Trey Hendrickson 10.7
    4. Dexter Lawrence 9.8
    5. Jonathan Greenard 9.2

    Top 10 list

     

    Matchups and Mismatches

    When we look at matchups by unit and comparing the teams playing a particular game, there are intriguing matchups and mismatches each week.

    Here are some we noticed:

    (All references to rankings are in the context of Total Points Per Play)

    * One of the most interesting games of Week 9 is a matchup of the No. 1 Passing and No. 1 Receiving Ravens team and the No. 1 Broncos Pass Coverage group.

    * The Falcons have another highly favorable matchup with an offense that ranks in the top 10 in Passing, Rushing, and Receiving going against a Cowboys defense that ranks among the bottom three teams in Run Defense, Pass Rush, and Pass Coverage. 

    Similarly the Bengals No. 2 Passing and No. 12 Receiving units have a good matchup with a Raiders team that ranks No. 26 in Pass Rush and No. 28 in Pass Coverage.

    And the Chiefs No. 4 Passing and No. 7 Receiving groups look to be in good shape against a Buccaneers team that ranks No. 24 in Pass Rush and No. 31 in Pass Coverage.

    Find your own matchups and mismatches here. You can also find much of this information at the SIS Datahub.

    —

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  • Brian Flores The Bogeyman

    Brian Flores The Bogeyman

    Photo: John Rivera/Icon Sportswire

    If he were alive today, Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman may have gotten a kick out of what Brian Flores is doing to quarterbacks on a weekly basis. 

    His Vikings are bringing the house on every play. Blitz after blitz after blitz, or so it seems. This constant pressure, or the threat of a free rusher on every snap, activates the part of our brain that Kahneman called “System 1.” 

    System 1 is responsible for our thoughts that are fast, automatic, and emotional. 

    On the football field, the constant threat of a Vikings’ blitz is making offenses think fast, not slow and all but ensures mistakes will follow.

    Through their first seven games, Vikings’ opponents have committed more than three dozen offensive penalties. In Week 3 against the Texans, three separate offensive linemen were flagged for false starts on consecutive plays.

    That type of pressure must be getting to teams early. Worming its way through their psyche in the days before they have to face the Vikings. 

    Offenses have to spend the necessary time to think through their gameplan, slowly and carefully, to try and come up with answers to slow this unit down.

    That type of effortful thinking takes place in “System 2.” Kahneman described it as when the brain kicks into high gear and you’re able to hyperfocus on the task at hand. 

    A color commentator might say it’s when the game starts to slow down for a young player. You may have also heard it described as “entering a state of flow.”

    Brian Flores isn’t reading all that. His defense is doing everything in its power to speed things up and shift opponents’ into System 1 so they’re prone to negative plays.

    What’s really crazy about his defense, though, is how they’ve been able to create roughly the same amount of pressure regardless of whether or not they bring the blitz.

    YOY Sample Pass Rushers

     

    		 Pressure% NFL Rank
    2023 Season 5 or More 39% 25
    Weeks 1-8

    2024 Season

    		 4 or Fewer

    5 or More

    		 26%

    34%

    		 29

    27
    Weeks 1-8 4 or Fewer 35% 6

    It’s not that Brian Flores has changed his blitz-happy ways. Not in the slightest. His defense is among the most aggressive in the league and has sent five or more pass rushers on 40% of dropbacks. 

    But that’s a far cry from the 52% blitz rate he unleashed on quarterbacks by this time last season. So what exactly has changed?

    Even though Flores has slashed his rates, the Vikings have kept offenses on their toes by crowding the line of scrimmage and “simulating pressure” with a roving cast of characters. 

    His defense is able to line up in disguised formations before the snap that present one coverage before morphing into another. Here’s how that can look. 

    A pair of diagrams showing what a defense does pre-snap and post-snap

    A simulated pressure is a 4-man rush with a player dropping into coverage from an alignment that typically rushes, and a player rushing the passer from an alignment that typically drops into coverage.

    Ted Nguyen of The Athletic has talked about “simulated pressures” and their rising popularity with defensive coordinators around the league.

    Nguyen explained simulated pressure as when there are multiple defenders on the line of scrimmage showing blitz but the defense only ends up rushing four and dropping seven into coverage. With these sim pressures “one of your rushers is going to come from the second or third level and you drop a defensive end,” he added.

    In the play below, safety Harrison Smith rushes from the second level as Patrick Jones II drops into coverage.

    The Vikings simulated pressure with single-high coverage. After the snap, the center shifted right and opened a runway for Harrison Phillips (#97) to dive at the quarterback.

    Jerry Tillery (#99) occupied three offensive linemen. He shoved the right guard and tackle before circling back to engage the center.

    On the right, Harrison Smith (#22) and Jonathan Greenard (#58) collided with the running back and left tackle and used their impact to switch assignments. 

    The quarterback was able to spin away from Phillips but turned his back to the defense as they shifted into zone coverage. 

    The Vikings’ switch got them into a favorable matchup with their defensive end (6’3”, 259 lbs.) on a running back (5’6”, 185 lbs.) and the fight was over in a flash. 

    The Vikings collected their fourth sack on the day and their third on second down.

    Second down, in particular, had been the money down for the Vikings during their undefeated 5-0 start. They ranked second in the league in pressure rate (42%) when sending four or fewer pass rushers. 

    In their losses to the Lions and Rams, that pressure rate dropped to 33%.

    To better understand the Vikings’ success and what may have caused this downturn, I watched all their second-down blitzes and pressures so far this season.

    Typically, the Vikings have their cornerbacks drop into coverage while their defensive tackles and/or defensive ends rush the passer on second down.

    Cornerback Pass Snaps Rush%
    Byron Murphy Jr. 292 1%
    Stephon Gilmore 272 0%
    Shaquill Griffin 193 0%
    Defensive Tackle Pass Snaps Rush%
    Harrison Phillips 169 100%
    Jonathan Bullard 133 100%
    Jerry Tillery 119 99%
    Defensive End Pass Snaps Rush%
    Jonathan Greenard 246 93%

    At safety, the Vikings like to roll with a trio of Camryn Bynum, Harrison Smith, and Josh Metellus. Bynum drops into coverage; Smith rushes the passer once in a blue moon; and Metellus gets after it about once every five plays.

    On second down, Flores typically plays two or three defensive tackles alongside DE Jonathan Greenard; the safety trio and two cornerbacks; and his green-dot linebacker.

    With most of the spots already filled, the remaining void is divvied up between a deep bench of linebackers who cause chaos and confusion by any means necessary.

    To keep opponents guessing, the Vikings have shown more than 20 different linebacker pairings on these second-down pressure and blitz packages. 

    Linebacker Pass Snaps Rush% Sack% Pressure%
    Andrew Van Ginkel 98 59% 5% 12%
    Blake Cashman 85 26% 5% 24%
    Patrick Jones II 59 78% 4% 4%
    Ivan Pace Jr. 56 29% 6% 24%
    Kamu Grugier-Hill 34 24% 0% 13%
    Jihad Ward 27 100% 0% 7%
    Dallas Turner 18 56% 0% 0%

    Making matters worse is the Vikings’ complete rejection of typical “three-level” defensive structure. Linebackers shift and prowl and blur the lines between levels as safeties creep up and mug the gaps. 

    Through the first five weeks of the season, it seemed as though anyone could rush the passer on second down. But things have changed since Blake Cashman picked up an injury in London and has been out of the lineup. 

    Against the Lions and Rams, the Vikings’ weaknesses were exposed. Instead of reacting to their simulated pressures, Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford stood in the pocket and calmly executed the offense. 

    When the pressure did come, they were decisive and got the ball out quickly or side-stepped the rush to take downfield shots.

    Both knew the pass rush was inevitable and they were going to get hit. Sometimes, that’s just the cost of doing business. 

    When teams are able to withstand the threat of every down pressure—both real and imagined—they can take advantage of a defense frequently out of position.

    The Lions and Rams have left a light on for teams looking to face their fears and beat this Vikings defense. Just remember, for sixty minutes, the bogeyman doesn’t exist.

  • What should we make of Trevor Lawrence?

    What should we make of Trevor Lawrence?

    Photo:Shaun Brooks/Action Plus/Icon Sportswire

    The Jacksonville Jaguars just spent two weeks of their short, fleeting human lives on a small, damp isle off the western coast of Europe, and, given that they’re 2-5, it’s doubtful that Trevor Lawrence and company have returned home to a hero’s welcome.

    This is a precarious position to be in, and most certainly is not the breakthrough Jags fans had hoped for following consecutive 9-8 seasons. To make matters worse, the Jags’ second-half schedule is not an easy one, with the Texans, the Vikings, the Lions, and the Packers on it.

    There are, of course, some matchups in which they should be favored: the Jets are a sinking ship captained by a quarterback who either checks it down or throws the vertical element in response to playcalls he doesn’t like; the Raiders are a cautionary tale about trying to exit quarterback purgatory; and two games against the Titans means two front-row tickets to watch Will Levis brutally struggle.

    But, the final record of the Jaguars is not the central question. The central question is the assessment of Trevor Lawrence. My friend Diante Lee wrote an excellent, film-based piece on Lawrence for The Ringer a few weeks ago, and, now that Lawrence has broken out of his slump, I would like to discuss the matter with a statistical and systemic focus.

    Let us begin with the formalities. At Sports Info Solutions, our player value discussions are almost always going to start with our proprietary player value metric, Total Points, and go from there. In this regard, we rather like Lawrence’s campaign thus far. He currently ranks seventh in passing Total Points on a per play basis and is on pace to have his best season as a pro in this category. The contradiction here is that the Jags’ passing attack is inept generally, and this deserves further examination.

    Jaguars Passing Offense – Ranks

    Stat Rank
    Positive Play Percentage 15th
    Boom Rate 25th
    Bust Rate 24th

    That is to say, they are not matriculating the ball, they are not generating big plays, and they are finding disaster on about a fifth of their dropbacks. This is all made worse by the fact that their passing success rate in the red zone is even worse.

    It is still possible to nitpick Lawrence, though. His pressure-to-sack ratio, which is a proxy for pocket management, is a bit worse than league average, and he’s good, but not great in expected on-target rate plus-minus (67th percentile) and turnover-worthy throw rate (61st percentile). So, while he’s not a perfect, little angel, he’s still playing reasonably well. Who, then, is to blame for the offensive problems? 

    One problem is that the Jags are not getting much juice out of their under-center play action game right now.  Here are the numbers.

    Season EPA
    2022 0.23
    2023 0.14
    2024 -0.03

    Lawrence also proved during those years that he was capable of executing it, ranking sixth in Total Points/play among quarterbacks with at least 100 such reps from 2022-2023. This season, he ranks just 18th out of 19 signal-callers with 25+ under center play action snaps. This is nearly 1 in every 6 dropbacks, and it’s dragging him down in the aggregate. 

    On the other hand, he’s fared much better with play action out of shotgun and ranks first in Passing Total Points/play in that bucket (minimum 15 snaps). And in pure shotgun dropback game, he ranks fifth behind Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes, in that order. That’s pretty good company!

    There are more granular offensive design issues that could be critiqued generally. For instance, they are extremely siloed under center, even relative to the NFL average, and their 3×1 gun strong (back to the 3-receiver side) looks are just a mechanism for read option bubble stuff. They also have too many curl routes in their diet – over a fifth of their routes are curls! – largely due to spamming concepts like spacing. But a more thorough treatment of these issues is outside the scope of this article, so let us move to personnel.

    The offensive line is 2nd in pass blocking Total Points, and they share, with Lawrence, the 8th-best pressure rate allowed in the NFL at 28%. The receivers, on the other hand, rank 27th in Total Points/play, 28th in on-target catch rate, and 31st in broken/missed tackles per reception. 

    On top of that, Lawrence has thrown the most catchable passes into the end zone this season, and just half of them have been caught, whereas the NFL average is above 60 percent. Other than rookie Brian Thomas Jr., this is a group that needs to be liquidated following 2024.

    Lawrence just signed a 5-year, $275M contract in June, but there shouldn’t be any feeling of buyer’s remorse. Total Points seeks to identify an individual player’s contribution, and Lawrence is playing well in spite of his lack of receiving talent and problems with the offensive design. Half-hearted efforts to address personnel issues and doubling down on the systemic problems has led us to this point. 

    It seems unlikely that the Jaguars will go above .500 this year, and maybe that’s for the best. The protagonist, while perhaps not as far along in his development as one would like, is beset by those who aren’t helping get the best out of him. The optimistic position is not that Lawrence can and will improve; this would be nice, but is not necessary per se. The optimistic position is that management will be toppled after 2024, at which point the phenomenon of Lawrence playing well in and of himself will be perceived more clearly in a different context.

  • NFL Statistical Leaders (entering Week 8)

    NFL Statistical Leaders (entering Week 8)

    Photo: Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire

    Hi!

    The last few years we’ve been sending out a weekly stat package e-mail to help get you ready for the weekend’s games.

     Hopefully you’ll think this year’s version is been even better. One thing we noticed: Not many people are downloading the attachment. So we’re putting more information into the body of this e-mail. Scroll to the end. There’s lots of good stuff here.
    Our goal is to bring the stats to you so that you don’t have to go hunting them down.
     
    Let us know that we’ve done that. Please share any feedback on these info packages. You can contact us at mark@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com
    Total Points Leaderboards
    Highlights from the leaderboards in our flagship stat, Total Points, which attempts to measure everything that happens on the field (full primer here):

     

    * Yes, that is the Broncos with a 4-3 record ranked No. 2 overall thanks to their No. 2 ranked defense.

    There is basically no difference between the teams ranked No. 2, 3, 4, and 5 in Total Points per 60 plays (that encompasses the Broncos, Vikings, Ravens, and Chiefs, with No. 1 being the Lions).

    * Lamar Jackson had the best game of any quarterback in terms of Points Above Average last week and the reward for that was that he moved into the No. 1 spot in Total Points for quarterbacks. There’s decent distance between him and the No. 2, Joe Burrow.

    * You’ll have to click on the Statpack link to see it, but the No. 1 offensive lineman in Total Points right now is Buccaneers tackle Tristan Wirfs. Wirfs is a three-time Pro Bowl selection who was named first-team All-Pro in 2021.

    * The Giants are 2-5 but have the No. 1 defensive tackle in Total Points (Dexter Lawrence) and the No. 2 linebacker (Brian Burns). The Lions, at least for the moment, can go one better. Aidan Hutchinson remains the No. 1 defensive end (until T.J. Watt surpasses him) and Kerby Joseph is the No. 1 safety.

    Click here for the full Total Points StatPack

    Total Points Power Rankings

    The Top 10 teams in the NFL when taking into account Total Points Per Play for offense, defense, and special teams.

    1. Lions
    2. Broncos
      3. Vikings
      4. Ravens
      5. Chiefs
      6. 49ers
      7. Bills
      8. Seahawks
      9. Falcons
      10. Commanders

    Full list

    Top 5 Offenses

    1. Ravens, 2. Commanders, 3. Lions, 4. Bills, 5. Falcons

    Full list

    Top 5 Defenses

    1. Chargers, 2. Broncos, 3. Vikings, 4. Bears, 5. Giants

    Full list

    Total Points Leaders: Quarterbacks

    1. Lamar Jackson
    2. Joe Burrow
    3. Geno Smith
    4. Jayden Daniels
    5. Josh Allen

    Top 10 list

    Total Points Leaders: Running Backs

    1. Derrick Henry
    2. Kenneth Walker III
    3. Najee Harris
    4. Brian Robinson Jr.
    5. Zach Charbonnet

    Top 10 list

    Total Points Leaders: Wide Receivers

    1. Chris Godwin
    2. Nico Collins
    3. Ja’Marr Chase
    4. A.J. Brown
    5. Jauan Jennings

    Top 10 list

    Total Points Leaders: Defensive Ends

    1. Aidan Hutchinson
    2. T.J. Watt
    3. Will McDonald IV
    4. Myles Garrett
    5. Calais Campbell

    Top 10 list

    Total Points Leaders: Linebackers

    1. Fred Warner
    2. Brian Burns
    3. Andrew Van Ginkel
    4. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
    5. Jamien Sherwood

    Top 10 list

    Total Points Leaders: Cornerbacks

    1. Pat Surtain II
    2. Jaylon Jones
    3. Marlon Humphrey
    4. D.J. Reed
    5. Riley Moss

    Top 10 list

    Total Points Leaders: Safeties

    1. Kerby Joseph
    2. Julian Love
    3. Amani Hooker
    4. Nick Cross
    5. Xavier McKinney

    Top 10 list

    Note: These rankings are based on unrounded totals which virtually eliminates ties between players or teams

    Charting Leaderboards

    Leaderboards in various statistical categories based on video review by our staff, including long passes, yards after contact, and pressures.

    *The current leader in broken/missed tackles is a former Steeler, James Conner. The current runner-up is a Steeler, Najee Harris. With 33 and 32, respectively, they’ve considerably outpaced the rest of the field. Harris leads in broken tackles with 19. Conner leads in missed tackles with 16.

    Harris’ teammate, George Pickens, also tops a leaderboard with 8 receptions on targets thrown at least 20 yards downfield.

    * Rams rookie Jared Verse is becoming someone that no one wants to go up against. Verse currently leads the NFL with a 23% pressure percentage and ranks 9th in total pressures with 27 for a pass rush that ranks No. 1 in Total Points Per Play. 

    Most Completions, Pass Attempts 20+ Yards Downfield

    1. Sam Darnold 13
    2. Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy, Dak Prescott, Bo Nix 10

    Top 10 list

    Most Receptions, Targets 20+ Yards Downfield

    1. George Pickens 8
    2. DK Metcalf 7
    3. Darnell Mooney, Alec Pierce, Justin Jefferson 6

    Top 10 list

    Most Yards After Contact (Rushing)

    1. Jordan Mason 393
    2. Derrick Henry 377
    3. Najee Harris 356
    4. Josh Jacobs 339
    5. Saquon Barkley 324

    Top 10 list

    Most QB Pressures

    1. Aidan Hutchinson 38
    2. Trey Hendrickson 34
    3. Zach Allen 33
    4. Will McDonald IV 32
    5. Nick Bosa 31

    Top 10 list

    Most Pressures Above Expectation

    1. Aidan Hutchinson 16.5
    2. Zach Allen 12.0
    3. Trey Hendrickson 11.2
    4. Chris Jones 9.6
    5. Will McDonald IV 9.0

    Top 10 list

    Matchups and Mismatches

    When we look at matchups by unit and comparing the teams playing a particular game, there are intriguing matchups and mismatches each week.

    Here are four we noticed:

    (All references to rankings are in the context of Total Points Per Play)

    *There are great matchups between the Bears and Commanders on Sunday. Washington ranks No. 4 in Passing, No. 10 in Receiving, and No. 2 in Rushing, but the Bears are formidable, at No. 3 in Pass Rush, No. 7 in Pass Coverage, and No. 12 in Rush Defense.

    * The Eagles need to get to Joe Burrow with their advantage in Pass Rush. They rank No. 2 there and the Bengals rank No. 24 in Blocking. If they don’t, the Bengals will likely take advantage of their ranking No. 2 in Passing and No. 6 in Receiving, against an Eagles group that ranks No. 26 in Pass Coverage. 

    * Falcons QB Kirk Cousins could be primed for another big day. The Buccaneers rank No. 24 in Pass Rush and No. 31 in Pass Coverage.

    * Chiefs-Raiders could get pretty ugly. Among the seven team units we calculate Total Points Per Play for, the Chiefs’ average ranking is 10th. The Raiders’ average ranking is 25th. The Raiders are a bottom-three team in Rushing, Blocking, and Pass Coverage.

    Find your own matchups and mismatches here. You can also find much of this information at the SIS Datahub.

    Please let us know if you have any feedback on these info packages. You can contact me at mark@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com.
  • NFL Statpack entering Week 7

    NFL Statpack entering Week 7

    Photo: Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire

    The last few years we’ve been sending out a weekly stat package e-mail to help get you ready for the weekend’s games.

    Hopefully you’ll think this year’s version is been even better. One thing we noticed: Not many people are downloading the attachment. So we’re putting more information into the body of this e-mail. Scroll to the end. There’s lots of good stuff here.
    Our goal is to bring the stats to you so that you don’t have to go hunting them down.
     
    Let us know that we’ve done that. Please share any feedback on these info packages. You can contact us at mark@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com
    Total Points Leaderboards
    Highlights from the leaderboards in our flagship stat, Total Points, which attempts to measure everything that happens on the field (full primer here):

     

    * The Lions have the No. 4-ranked Offense and the No. 8-ranked Defense. No other team ranks in the Top 10 in both, which helps explain why the Lions are ranked No. 1 Overall. 

    * The biggest disparity between team rank and their record is with the Cowboys, who are a .500 team but rank 30th Overall. Their offense ranks 24th and their defense ranks 31st.

    * Joe Burrow has taken the lead among quarterbacks after a big Week 6. 

    Bo Nix jumped to 5th among quarterbacks after recording 19 Total Points in a comeback effort last week.

    * With Nico Collins out, Chris Godwin jumped into the lead among wide receivers. Godwin leads all players in receptions and is tied for the lead in touchdown receptions, though his average target depth is 5.3 yards, far lower than Collins (11.5), Ja’Marr Chase (9.1) and most of the other players ranked among the Total Points leaders.

    * There is a tight race for the top spot among safeties with four players within three Total Points of each other. Amani Hooker leads with 27 Total Points. He’s never finished a season with that many for his career. Opponents are 4-for-12 when passing to an intended receiver that he’s covering. He also has 25 tackles, including 4 for loss (he’s never finished a season with more than 6).

    Click here for the full Total Points StatPack

    Total Points Power Rankings

    The Top 10 teams in the NFL when taking into account Total Points Per Play for offense, defense, and special teams.

    1. Lions

    2. Ravens
    3. 49ers
    4. Falcons
    5. Bills
    6. Broncos
    7. Vikings
    8. Chiefs
    9. Seahawks
    10. Texans

    Full list

    Top 5 Offenses

    1. Ravens, 2. Falcons, 3. Commanders, 4. Lions, 5. Bengals

    Full list

    Top 5 Defenses

    1. Chargers, 2. Broncos, 3. Vikings, 4. Dolphins, 5. Bears

    Full list

    Total Points Leaders: Quarterbacks

    1. Joe Burrow

    2. Lamar Jackson

    3. Jayden Daniels

    4. Geno Smith

    5. Bo Nix

    Top 10 list

    Total Points Leaders: Running Backs

    1. Zach Charbonnet

    2. Kenneth Walker III

    3. Antonio Gibson

    4. Najee Harris

    5. Derrick Henry 

    Top 10 list

    Total Points Leaders: Wide Receivers

    1. Chris Godwin

    2. Nico Collins

    3. Ja’Marr Chase

    4. Drake London

    5. Jauan Jennings

    Top 10 list

    Total Points Leaders: Defensive Ends

    1. Aidan Hutchinson
    2. T.J. Watt
    3. Will McDonald IV
    4. Myles Garrett
    5. Nick Bosa

    Top 10 list

    Total Points Leaders: Linebackers

    1. Fred Warner
    2. Brian Burns
    3. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
    4. Kyle Van Noy
    5. Andrew Van Ginkel

    Top 10 list

    Total Points Leaders: Cornerbacks

    1. Pat Surtain II
    2. Jaylon Jones
    3. Riley Moss
    4. D.J. Reed
    5. Kamari Lassiter

    Top 10 list

    Total Points Leaders: Safeties

    1. Amani Hooker
    2. Kerby Joseph
    3. Nick Cross
    4. Jaquan Brisker
    5. Julian Love

    Top 10 list

    Note: These rankings are based on unrounded totals which virtually eliminates ties between players or teams

    Charting Leaderboards

    Leaderboards in various statistical categories based on video review by our staff, including long passes, yards after contact, and pressures.

    * Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase has 5 receptions on passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield, 1 shy of the NFL lead. Chase is an almost-perfect 5-of-6 at catching targets thrown at least that far. Joe Burrow has 9 such completions overall, 2 shy of the NFL lead. He’s completed 9-of-15 deep passes this season. Last season he completed 9 of 27.

    * Dorance Armstrong of the Commanders has 19 pressures this season. That’s about 8 more pressures than expected based on his alignment and the situation. His 19.4% pressure percentage is nearly 9 percentage points above expectations. The gap between his pressure percentage and expected pressure percentage is the second-largest in the NFL.

    Most Completions, Pass Attempts 20+ Yards Downfield

    1. Sam Darnold 11
    2. Dak Prescott 10
    3. Bo Nix, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow 9

    Top 10 list

    Most Receptions, Targets 20+ Yards Downfield

    1. Alec Pierce, George Pickens 6
    3. DK Metcalf, Darnell Mooney, Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson 5

    Top 10 list

    Most Yards After Contact (Rushing)

    1. Jordan Mason 369
    2. Derrick Henry 342
    3. Najee Harris 284
    4. Josh Jacobs 283
    5. Rhamondre Stevenson 259

    Top 10 list

    Most QB Pressures

    1. Aidan Hutchinson 39
    2. Trey Hendrickson 28
    3. Carl Granderson 27
    4. Will McDonald IV 26
    5. Zach Allen, Travon Walker, Jonathan Greenard 25

    Top 10 list

    Most Pressures Above Expectation

    1. Aidan Hutchinson 16.9
    2. Chris Jones 10.2
    3. Trey Hendrickson 9.7
    4. Zach Allen 9.3
    5. Dorance Armstrong 8.1

    Top 10 list

    Matchups and Mismatches

    When we look at matchups by unit and comparing the teams playing a particular game, there are intriguing matchups and mismatches each week.

    Here are 4 we noticed:

    (All references to rankings are in the context of Total Points Per Play)

    * On Monday Night Football, the Ravens bring the No. 1 Passing offense into a matchup with the Buccaneers Pass Defense, which ranks 26th. In fact, the Ravens have a top-6 unit in Passing, Rushing, Receiving, and Blocking, and each of the Buccaneers defensive units (Run Defense, Pass Rush, Pass Coverage) ranks 20th or worse.

    * Eagles-Giants is intriguing on a couple of fronts. The Eagles have the No. 2 Rushing offense. The Giants have the No. 3 Run Defense. The Giants also have the No. 2 Pass Rush and are going against an Eagles team that ranks 24th in Blocking.

    * The Rams have the No. 6 Pass Rush heading into a matchup with the Raiders, whose Blocking ranks 29th. 

    * The 49ers’ Receiving unit ranks No. 1 overall and is going up against a Chiefs Pass Coverage group that ranks No. 24. However, the Chiefs have the No. 1 rated Pass Rush to send at a 49ers Blocking unit that ranks 15th.

    Find your own matchups and mismatches here. You can also find much of this information at the SIS Datahub.

    Please let us know if you have any feedback on these info packages. You can contact me at mark@ww2.sportsinfosolutions.com.