Tag: Blake Snell

  • Stat of the Week: Defense, The NL Cy Young Race, and Blake Snell

    Stat of the Week: Defense, The NL Cy Young Race, and Blake Snell

    On May 19, Padres starter Blake Snell got clubbed for 6 runs in 4 innings in a loss to the Red Sox. His season ERA at that point was 5.40.

    But from that point forward, Snell has had the most remarkable run of pitching in 2023. He has a 1.31 ERA in his last 19 starts with nearly 2.5 times more strikeouts (153) as hits allowed (62) in that span.

    Snell’s season ERA is currently an MLB-best 2.50. This is remarkable given that he’s walked 89 batters, the most in the NL. That’s more than 5 walks per 9 innings, a rate that ranks 4th-highest in MLB.

    Snell’s ERA is an outlier among those with the most walks per 9 innings. His walks per 9 are an outlier among the pitchers with the lowest ERAs in MLB.

    So with all these crazy numbers floating around, where does Snell fit within the context of the NL Cy Young race, compared to pitchers like Justin Steele of the Cubs and Spencer Strider of the Braves?

    A Twitter follower presumably looking to answer that or a similar question asked us how much defensive support the different Cy Young contenders have received this season.

    The easiest way for us to answer that is to look at Defensive Runs Saved on batted balls by a team in support of a pitcher, something we did earlier this season in this article.

    Pitchers Receiving Most Defensive Support From Teams – 2023

    Name Team DRS
    José Berrios Blue Jays 16
    Blake Snell Padres 15
    Corbin Burnes Brewers 13
    Yusei Kikuchi Blue Jays 13
    Framber Valdez Astros 12
    Dean Kremer Orioles 12

    Snell and the Padres show up prominently on the leaderboard. That makes sense. In order to have an ERA that good with the walk rate that high, a pitcher is going to need help in some form.

    And now let’s look at this using the Top 5 NL Cy Young candidates as established by Tom Tango’s Cy Young Predictor tool (now available on FanGraphs).

    Pitchers Receiving Most Defensive Support From Teams

    Cy Young Candidates- 2023

    Name Team DRS
    Blake Snell Padres 15
    Zac Gallen Diamondbacks 5
    Justin Steele Cubs 2
    Spencer Strider Braves 1
    Zack Wheeler Phillies -1

    Admittedly if we considered other areas of defense, such as keeping runners from stealing, the Defensive Runs Saved numbers behind Snell would go down a bit. Snell has allowed 20 stolen bases in 21 attempts. But he would still be well ahead of any other serious Cy Young contender. The work of the Padres defense has been an important part in Snell’s ERA being the best in the game.

    So if Snell does win the Cy Young Award, we’d recommend him giving some complimentary gifts to the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim, Xander Bogaerts, and others. As good as Snell’s been on the mound, they’ve been just as good for him.

  • The changes that made Jacob deGrom and Blake Snell Cy Young worthy

    The changes that made Jacob deGrom and Blake Snell Cy Young worthy

    By MARK SIMON

    Pitchers are always making tweaks and adjustments to their deliveries and repertoires in an effort to stay a step ahead of the hitters. In the case of Mets pitcher Jacob deGrom and Rays pitcher Blake Snell, the tweaks made those pitchers Cy Young worthy.

    DeGrom’s big adjustment came by suggestion from pitching coach Dave Eiland, who wanted the Mets pitchers to pitch inside more. For deGrom, this meant completely changing his approach to left-handed batters.

    As my colleague,  Andrew Kyne, noted  earlier this season,  in 2017, deGrom threw only 23 percent of his fastballs inside to left-handed hitters (we’re defining “inside” as on the inner-third of the plate or further inside). In 2018, he more than doubled that to 49 percent, the second-highest percentage in MLB (Kyle Gibson of the Twins was a smidge higher). Here’s what that looks like visually:

    Andrew Kyne/Sports Info Solutions

    DeGrom also upped how often he threw his fastball at the top of the strike zone (or above it) to them, bumping that from 58 percent of pitches to 67 percent. The inside fastballs backed hitters up off the plate. The high heat finished them off. Lefties hit .219/.267/.312 against him in 2018, his best numbers in a season against left-handed hitting. Combine that with even greater dominance against right-handed hitters and deGrom was at the top of his game for almost the entire season.

    DeGrom finished with the second-highest chase rate among pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched (38 percent). He ranked 10th in miss rate (29 percent).

    The pitcher who ranked first in miss rate was Rays pitcher Blake Snell (33 percent). Snell’s breakthrough season was a surprise. He posted ERAs of 3.54 and 4.04 in his first two seasons; you could not have seen his 1.89 ERA coming.

    What hitters apparently had trouble seeing was Snell’s curveball. He threw the pitch about 10 percent of the time in 2017, but netted misses on 51 percent of swings against it. In 2018, Snell’s strategy was to increase his curveball use, cutting back a little bit on his fastball and slider. He doubled his curveball usage to 20 percent of the time. Hitters continued to miss the pitch on more than half of their swings.

    Paired with a 1.5 mile per hour increase in average fastball velocity to nearly 96 MPH, the Rays suddenly had something special. When Snell started on five days rest, those pitches were perfect. In 15 such starts, he pitched to a 1.08 ERA with a 4-to-1 K to BB rate. Three of Snell’s pitches – his fastball, curveball and slider – experienced major jumps in value per FanGraphs’ pitch data. He became a completely different pitcher, one whose performance was suddenly Cy Young worthy.

    Now he and deGrom have trophies to honor the successful changes they made.

    Blake Snell – Curveball Ranks
    Opp BA .126 4th
    Miss Rate 52% 2nd
    Strikeouts 93 7th
    >> Minimum 300 thrown