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Tag: Josh Donaldson

  • Start Spreading The News: A Great Month for the Yankees Infield

    Start Spreading The News: A Great Month for the Yankees Infield

    The Yankees enter Friday tied with the Mariners for second in the majors in Defensive Runs Saved.

    That’s pretty remarkable given that in 2021, they finished next-to-last in the majors in that stat.

    It’s only a month into the season but the remaking of the Yankees infield has been a significant contributor to their 18-7 record and 2.5 game lead in the AL East.

    This was a necessity. Last season, the Yankees got negative Runs Saved at each of the four infield spots.

    What impact have the changes had?

    The Yankees have converted 78% of groundballs and bunts into outs this season. That’s the fifth-highest out rate in MLB. The Yankees ranked 23rd in that stat in 2021 at 73%.

    The difference of 5 percentage points equates to this – The Yankees have turned 216 of 277 groundballs and bunts into outs this season. Had they performed at the 2021 rate, they would have converted 201.

    That’s not just 15 potential baserunners wiped out. It’s trading potential baserunners for outs.

    On an individual level, three things have paid dividends. Runs Saved is one way to illustrate that but let’s go one step beyond that and show the out-getting numbers to provide a more tangible illustration.

    One was that the Yankees moved Gleyber Torres back to being a full-time second basemen. Torres saved 5 runs there in 2018, then struggled at both second base and shortstop the next three seasons.

    Torres has played 18 games at second base this season. He’s gotten at least one out on 39 of 55 balls on which he had a >0% chance of recording an out (we’ll call the potential outs “opportunities” going forward).

    In 2021, he played 19 games at second base. That season, he got outs on 39 of 67 opportunities. That’s the same number of plays made on 12 fewer opportunities.

    Torres moved to second base because the Yankees traded to get shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Kiner-Falefa saved 10 runs at shortstop last season. Torres was the Yankees primary shortstop last season. He cost them 10 runs with his defense.

    Torres got an out on 60% of his opportunities as a shortstop last season. His expected out rate against those balls (yep, we track that) was 62%.

    Kiner-Falefa has turned 60 of 96 opportunities into outs this season. That’s a 63% out rate. He was expected to convert 55, an expected out rate of 57%.

    Though Gio Urshela’s defense at third base last season passed the eye test, it was a net negative for the Yankees, costing them 4 runs.

    The Kiner-Falefa trade also brought Josh Donaldson, a third baseman with a good defensive track record.

    Donaldson and DJ LeMahieu have combined to convert 63 of 89 opportunities into outs. That’s a 71% out rate within a small sample. Urshela’s out rate last season was 61%.

    You may be wondering why we haven’t mentioned first baseman Anthony Rizzo yet. That’s because Rizzo’s defensive numbers aren’t good since he joined the Yankees last season. He’s cost them 6 runs in his 74 games, including 1 in 25 games in 2022.

    But Rizzo’s track record is pretty good. He posted positive Runs Saved in every season from 2013 to 2020. If he performs at the level he’s shown in the past and the other Yankees infielders maintain what they’ve done, we may be talking about this as the best defensive infield in the American League in a few months.

  • Fielding Bible Volume V preview: The Twins defense

    By Mark Simon

    Marwin Gonzalez may have finished ninth in the 2019 Fielding Bible Multi-Position Award voting, but it would be hard to find a player more versatile than he is. Gonzalez started at least 10 games at each corner infield spot and each corner outfield spot. He did much more good than harm at those positions, saving five runs at left field and third base, and one run in right field. He did cost the team two runs at first base, so he wasn’t perfect, but his success at the other three spots made up for any deficiencies.

    The Twins needed the help, particularly at third and left, where Miguel Sano’s defense cost the team seven runs and Eddie Rosario’s cost them six runs. Though the Twins won the AL Central, their defense was not their strong suit – except in a few cases, like Gonzalez delivering as advertised.

    The Twins won’t need Gonzalez to play third in 2020 with the addition of Josh Donaldson. Donaldson matched a career-high with 15 Runs Saved there with the Braves last season. That total ranked third in the majors behind Matt Chapman (34) and Nolan Arenado (18).

     Buxton Among Best When Healthy

    The strongest suit of the Twins defense is center fielder Byron Buxton, who saved 10 runs in an injury-shortened season. Buxton probably wouldn’t have challenged Lorenzo Cain for the Fielding Bible Award had he stayed healthy, but he definitely would have given Kevin Kiermaier a run for his money for the AL Gold Glove.

    Buxton was as good as it gets on balls hit to the deepest part of center field, catching 96-of-111 in which he had a greater than zero chance to make a play. That was nine plays above his expected total. On a per 100 plays basis, he was better than Cain, for whom catches on deep balls was the most valuable part of his game.

    Mitch Garver A Much-Improved Catcher

    Mitch Garver wasn’t expected to be the better defensive catcher between him and Jason Castro, but it turned out that way in 2019. Garver made a 18-run improvement from 2018, saving one run, though that doesn’t tell the full story. Where Garver’s improvement came was in pitch framing, where he went from costing the Twins eight runs to saving them a run. He and Tucker Barnhart of the Reds were two catchers who greatly benefited from individual instruction (Barnhart’s improvements are noted in the Reds essay).

    Garver’s improvements were documented in the Minnesota media and were attributed to Garver’s working with catching coach Tanner Swanson.

    To illustrate the difference Swanson made, consider pitches that BIS plotted that were low, but were over the plate and within one inch of the knees. In 2018, Garver and his pitchers got the call 10% of the time (14-of-141). In 2019, that improved to 31% (39-of-125).

    The numbers indicate that Garver still has some work to do, particularly when it comes to blocking pitches and stopping stolen bases. He cost the Twins seven runs in those areas in 2018 and five in 2019.

    Max Kepler Gets The Job Done

    Max Kepler may not win any Fielding Bible Awards in right field but if you’re looking for consistency from an outfielder, he should be in every discussion. Kepler has saved eight, five, 13, and eight runs in the outfield the last four seasons. He plays right field well and has filled in as the center fielder when Buxton got hurt, saving three runs in 2018 and four in 2019.

    What’s interesting to watch about Kepler in right field is that he gets it done without a lot of splash. He had only one sliding or diving catch in 2019. Kepler’s means of making a play there comes down to his route running. By Statcast’s numbers, he matched Mike Trout and Andrew Benintendi in having the most efficiently run routes within three seconds of bat-ball contact.

  • Who’s Hit More Homers Than Expected? Fewer?

    By Jon Becker

    Every batter loves hitting home runs, and every pitcher hates giving them up. On the flip side, hitting a ball to the warning track or knowing you “just missed it” as a hitter is surely infuriating while inducing a sigh of relief on the mound. On the scoreboard and in the basic stat logs, home runs are home runs, and outs are outs. But, with the help of batted ball data, SIS is able to assign an expected value on each ball in play. 

    This is similar to Statcast’s expected stats, though different inputs are used. Ours consider where the ball was hit and how far it was hit.

    For example, let’s take an absolute no-doubt home run: a ball in play that, based on ball speed, trajectory and location, will always be a home run. Something like this Vladimir Guerrero Jr. home run. This is basically a home run anywhere. And since it actually was a home run, the difference between his actual home runs and his expected home runs for that at-bat was zero.

    Then you get wall-scrapers, like this Jason Heyward home run from earlier this week. So, he hit one more home run than expected. If the expected home run value had been, say, 0.05, he would have hit 0.95 more home runs than expected.

    If a player hit a well-struck ball that was caught at the warning track (or was any other result besides a home run) that had an expected home run value of 0.75, he would have hit 0.75 fewer home runs than expected for that plate appearance. So, to end up with a player’s season total, we add up their actual home run totals, and then subtract out their expected home run totals.

    First, let’s take a look at who’s sneaking more balls over the fence than we think they should be:

    PlayerTeamActual HRExpected HRDifference
    Rhys HoskinsPhillies149.84.2
    Alex BregmanAstros1813.94.1
    Hunter PenceRangers1410.13.9
    Jesse WinkerReds106.43.6
    Clint FrazierYankees117.53.4
    Gleyber TorresYankees1410.53.4

    And now, some hitters who are hitting the ball well quite often but not getting to trot around the bases as much as we’d expect them to:

    PlayerTeamActual HRExpected HRDifference
    Adam JonesDiamondbacks1216.2-4.4
    Brandon BeltGiants912.7-3.8
    Josh BellPirates1922.7-3.7
    Paul GoldschmidtCardinals1215.4-3.4
    Josh
    Donaldson    		Braves912.0-3.0
    Joe PanikGiants35.9-2.8

    When looking at the hitters’ names in isolation, there isn’t really much of a pattern as to who’s on the first table versus the second. Hoskins and Bregman are both well-known for raw power; so too are Goldschmidt and Donaldson. Winker isn’t exactly known for being a slugger; neither is Panik. But, when digging deeper, with plenty of help from video of the balls in play, we can see an obvious trend: the ballpark matters!

    Take a look at this home run that Hoskins hit off of Diamondbacks closer Greg Holland earlier this week. Yes, it went 365 feet and went at least five rows into the stands, but it was just under 99 miles per hour off the bat; he clearly didn’t get all of it. It looked like a more impressive home run than it was because of the ballpark and hit location, but the reality of the matter is that it wouldn’t have even been a home run at every ballpark.

    Now let’s watch a clip of Panik hitting a double. He hit that pretty well! In fact, it was just three miles per hour slower off the bat than Hoskins’ round-tripper. But, unfortunately for the Giants’ second baseman, his own home ballpark let him down.

    Oracle Park is well-known for its jet stream knocking down fly balls, and if you look closely, you can see that those flags above the wall are indeed blowing in a bit. And, of course, there’s the height of the wall itself; at 25 feet, it’s the tallest right field wall in the majors. And so, despite a high expected home run value (higher than two of his three home runs this season), Panik had to settle for two bases.

    There are so many variables that go into hitting a home run. Next time you see one sail just over the fence, ask yourself: how fortunate was the hitter to have hit that one?