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  • 2024 SIS NFL All-Pro Team

    2024 SIS NFL All-Pro Team

    It’s time to unveil our All-Pro team for the 2024 NFL season. We used our all-encompassing player value stat, Total Points, along with other metrics and our scouting work as leading references in putting together our selections.

    A brief explanation of Total Points:

    Total Points takes nearly everything that SIS measures about a play and uses it to evaluate each player on a scale that allows you to compare them more easily. It’s always useful to be able to understand the different ways in which players can be valuable. Does he break a lot of tackles? Does he get a lot of yards after the catch? Does he make the best out of a poor offensive line? Does he get more pressures than expected? Does he break up a lot of passes? Total Points offers the opportunity to take all of those elements and get a quick picture of how well a player is performing overall.

    You can learn more about Total Points and the statistics referenced within this piece here.

    1st Team Offense

    Position Name Team
    QB Lamar Jackson Ravens
    RB Derrick Henry Ravens
    RB Jahmyr Gibbs Lions
    WR Justin Jefferson Vikings
    WR Ja’Marr Chase Bengals
    TE George Kittle 49ers
    T Brian O’Neill Vikings
    T Tristan Wirfs Buccaneers
    G Landon Dickerson Eagles
    G Kevin Zeitler Lions
    C Hjalte Froholdt Cardinals

    QB – Lamar Jackson – Ravens

    Jackson had yet another MVP-caliber season, and unlike previous years, he did most of his damage in the air. He led the NFL in Passing Total Points per Play, EPA, Boom%, and Points Above Average. Only Joe Burrow had more Passing Total Points than Jackson, but Jackson easily outperformed Burrow as a rusher. – Anthony Haage

    RB – Derrick Henry – Ravens 

    Henry added on to his Hall of Fame career in his first season with the Ravens. Not only did he lead the league with 46 Rushing Total Points, he led the league in yards after contact with 1,096 yards, which accounts for more than half of his total rushing yards on the season. While he finished second in total rushing yards with 1,921, behind only Saquon Barkley, he finished the season atop the RB leaderboard with 94 1st Downs gained, and 66 total broken and missed tackles combined. – Jordan Edwards

    RB – Jahmyr Gibbs – Lions

    Gibbs, also known as “Sonic”, capped off a breakout second season with a 4-TD performance in the season finale against the Vikings where he showed his capabilities as a lead back after splitting the workload with David Montgomery. Gibbs led all running backs in Total Points. Among all RBs with at least 50 carries, he led the league in Total Points per Play and Points Above Average per Play. – JD Allen

    From our R&D team: If you’re wondering why Gibbs was picked over over Barkley, from a statistical perspective, Gibbs has several advantages

    –  More rush EPA on considerably fewer attempts 

    – A better first down rate

    –  A little better boom/bust ratio 

    (“boom” being plays worth at least 1 EPA, “bust” being plays worth -1 EPA). 

    – Gibbs also had a 14-point edge in Total Points on plays in which the offensive line blew a block (there were 34 plays for him, 36 for Barkley). That’s a significant differential.

    WR – Justin Jefferson – Vikings

    Jefferson was one of the easier selections on this team as he torched the NFL this season. His base stats are extremely impressive with 103 receptions, 1533 yards, and 10 TDs, but diving into the stats makes them look even better. He had an NFL-leading 28 receptions of 20+ yards (7 better than 2nd place), led the NFL in air yards, and pass interference calls drawn. – Jeff Dean

    WR – Ja’Marr Chase – Bengals 

    Chase had a monumental season for the Bengals, finishing 1st among all pass catchers with 1,708 receiving yards and 17 TDs. In terms of Receiving Total Points, he finished 2nd among all WRs in the league with 35. – Jared Maslin

    TE – George Kittle – 49ers

    Kittle had the definition of an All-Pro season for a tight end in 2024. He easily led all tight ends in Total Points, led all players in Receiving Total Points, and he also was the league’s best run-blocking tight end. He did so while being the only receiver with less than 100 targets (94) in the Top 5. Rashod Bateman was the only player who outperformed Kittle in Boom%. – Anthony Haage

    T – Brian O’Neill – Vikings

    An unheralded stud on the Vikings offense was their right tackle, O’Neill. He tied for the most Total Points among tackles with 38, and he was remarkably balanced, finishing Top-12 in both Pass Blocking Total Points and Run Blocking Total Points. His standout 1.9% Blown Block Rate further cemented his place as one of the top tackles in the NFL. – Jeff Dean

    T – Tristan Wirfs – Buccaneers

    Wirfs had yet another stellar season for the Buccaneers. He led all left tackles in Pass Blocking Total Points and Points Above Replacement. Given his pass blocking prowess combined with elite penalty avoidance and a top tier blown block rate, there is no debate over Wirfs’ inclusion in our All-Pro 1st team. – Conner Hrabal

    G – Landon Dickerson – Eagles

    Dickerson reinforced his elite status by leading all offensive linemen with 40 Total Points. He was particularly dominant in regards to his run blocking and his 11.5 Run Blocking Total Points, which landed him at the top of the NFL for the second consecutive season. Among left guards, he had the lowest Blown Block Rate, highest Total Points per Snap, and highest Points Above Replacement. – Kyle Shatto

    G – Kevin Zeitler – Lions

    Zeitler had a tremendous first season with the Lions as he finished 2nd among all offensive guards in Total Points with 39. He was the lone guard to finish inside the Top-5 in Pass Blocking Total Points and Run Blocking Total Points, finishing 2nd and 5th, respectively. The veteran guard has shown no signs of slowing down in his 14th NFL season. – JD Allen

    C – Hjalte Froholdt – Cardinals

    Froholdt was a rock for the Cardinals this season. He led all centers in Total Points, Total Points per Snap, Points Above Average, Points Above Average per Snap, and Points Above Replacement (minimum 700 snaps). While one of the more surprising selections, he absolutely earned it. – Conner Hrabal

    1st Team Defense

    Position Name Team
    DT Jeffery Simmons Titans
    DT Cameron Heyward Steelers
    EDGE Jonathan Greenard Vikings
    EDGE Myles Garrett Browns
    LB Zach Baun Eagles
    LB Kaden Elliss Falcons
    CB Derek Stingley Jr. Texans
    CB Pat Surtain II Broncos
    CB Marlon Humphrey Ravens
    S Kerby Joseph Lions
    S Julian Love Seahawks

    DT – Jeffery Simmons – Titans

    Simmons absolutely toyed with offensive linemen this season. He finished the season with 51 Total Points, tops among defensive tackles. He finished 4th in Pass Rush Total Points per Snap and 1st in Run Defense Total Points per Snap, showing extreme effectiveness in all areas of the game. Simmons is truly one of the best players in the game today. – Jeff Dean

    DT – Cameron Heyward – Steelers 

    Heyward put together another great season on the Steelers defensive line. He finished 2nd for all DTs in Pass Rushing Total Points with 28 and 4th in Run Defense Total Points with another 18. He also finished T-4th with 47 pressures and 5th in Tackles per Game with 4.2 Tkl/G for all DTs. – Chad Tedder

    ED – Jonathan Greenard – Vikings

    The Vikings defense took a big step forward this season, and while his teammate Van Ginkel may get a little more attention, Greenard was a force on the edge all season. He finished the season with 12 sacks, 18 tackles for loss, 4 forced fumbles, and 3 passes batted/deflected. His 50 Total Points led Edge players. He finished T-7th in pressures with 68. – Jeff Dean

    ED – Myles Garrett – Browns

    Garrett was second in the league in sacks this year with 14. He also had tied for the 5th-most pressures in the league with 69. Garrett is as consistent as they come year after year, as this was his seventh year in a row with 10 or more sacks and his fourth consecutive year with a Pressure Percentage over 16%. – Ryan Rubinstein

    LB – Zach Baun – Eagles

    Yet another Howie Roseman success story, Baun made a key position switch to linebacker this past offseason and hasn’t turned back since. He ranked 2nd among linebackers with 23 Total Points against the run, he took a monumental step forward in solidifying his role in the NFL as a premier linebacker. – Kyle Shatto

    LB – Kaden Elliss – Falcons 

    Elliss put together a quietly good season for the Falcons, coming in at 6th among all LBs with 148 total tackles. He finished 6th in Pass Defense Total Points with 20. Elliss also contributed to the Falcons pass rush as he finished T-5th among all LBs with 11 knockdowns on opposing passers. – Jared Maslin

    CB – Derek Stingley Jr. – Texans 

    Stingley Jr. had his best season yet in his young NFL career. The former top-5 pick ranked 3rd at cornerback with 35 Pass Defense Total Points only trailing the other two 1st-Team selections, Marlon Humprey and Patrick Surtain respectively. He also was tied for 3rd among cornerbacks in total interceptions with 5. He led all cornerbacks with 16 passes defended and was not called for any pass interference penalties all season. – Jordan Edwards

    CB – Patrick Surtain II – Broncos

    One of the easiest selections for the team was Surtain. He led all CBs with 52 Total Points, and was also effective on a per-snap basis, finishing 2nd in Pass Defense Total Points per Snap. He had a QBR Against of just 68.4 when targeted, and his 32 Points Above Replacement were one of the highest among all NFL defenders this season. – Jeff Dean

    CB – Marlon Humphrey – Ravens 

    Humphrey continues to impress as he put together yet another stellar season for the Ravens. The star corner led all of their defenders with 47 Pass Defense Total Points, and he had an EPA of -25 when targeted. He proved that he can also take the ball away as he finished T-2nd in the league for Interceptions with 6 total, including a pick-6.  – Jared Maslin

    S – Kerby Joseph – Lions

    Joseph cemented himself as one of the elite safeties in the NFL with 55 Pass Defense Total Points, thanks to a league-leading 9 interceptions. He blew away the safety competition with the next-closest safety having 38 Pass Defense Total Points. To compare, the difference between him and 2nd is the same as between 2nd and 20th. He proved he’s not just a ball-hawk this season, finishing 14th in Run Defense Total Points among all safeties. – JD Allen

    S – Julian Love – Seahawks 

    Love finished 2nd to Joseph in Total Points among safeties. He ranked 7th among all safeties in Pass Defense Total Points with 32 points. While he finished the season with only 3 INTs, he was tied with second place among safeties in passes defended with 8. Not only was Love one of the best pass defenders at the position, he also led all safeties in Run Defense Total Points with 28. – Jordan Edwards

    1st Team Specialists

    Position Name Team
    K Chris Boswell Steelers
    P Tommy Townsend Texans
    Returner KaVontae Turpin Cowboys

    K – Chris Boswell – Steelers

    Boswell was next to automatic this year, hitting 93% of his FG Attempts. He did not miss a single extra point this season, going a perfect 35/35. He missed 3 kicks all season (2 from 50+yards), and ranked second in the league in 50+ yard FG made with 13. – Ryan Rubinstein

    P – Tommy Townsend – Texans 

    Townsend was a weapon this season in setting up the defense for success. He led the league in punts inside the 20 with 31. He also finished 4th in net average punt yards with 44.9 yards per punt. – Chad Tedder

    RET – KaVontae Turpin – Cowboys

    Turpin had another dominant year as a returner, specifically on kickoffs where he took full advantage of the new kickoff rules by accumulating 904 yards and a touchdown. He tacked on another 188 yards on punt returns as well, making him the only player to have over 1,000 return yards in the 2024 season. He was also the only player this season to score both a kickoff return touchdown and a punt return touchdown. – Chad Tedder

    2nd Team Offense

    Position Name Team
    QB Joe Burrow Bengals
    RB Saquon Barkley Eagles
    WR Amon-Ra St. Brown Lions
    WR Drake London Falcons
    WR Brian Thomas Jr. Jaguars
    TE Trey McBride Cardinals
    T Dion Dawkins Bills
    T Lane Johnson Eagles
    G Joe Thuney Chiefs
    G Quinn Meinerz Broncos
    C Creed Humphrey Chiefs

    QB – Joe Burrow – Bengals

    Burrow returned from his 2023 wrist injury with a career year. He topped the charts in the traditional counting stats, throwing for a league-leading 4,918 yards and 43 touchdowns, while also leading the league in Total Points at quarterback. – Conner Hrabal 

    RB – Saquon Barkley – Eagles

    Barkley’s historic season was one to remember, as he was just the 9th running back to eclipse 2,000 rushing yards in NFL history. If the absurd backwards hurdle wasn’t enough to make our All-Pro 2nd Team, Barkley also broke out for at least 150 rushing yards in five separate games this season, the most for a running back since Adrian Peterson in 2012. – Kyle Shatto

    WR – Amon-Ra St. Brown – Lions 

    St. Brown produced another great season in 2024, finishing T-3rd among receivers with 34 Total Points. He led all WRs in Total EPA with 81, and led the league in EPA Per Target, among all WRs with at least 50 targets. He finished 2nd in Positive Play Percentage at 69%. – JD Allen

    WR – Drake London – Falcons 

    London was yet another young wide receiver to follow the trend of making the jump to great in their 3rd season. He finished the year 4th in the NFL with 1,271 receiving yards while finishing top-8 among wide receivers in receiving touchdowns (9) and Total Points (30). – Jeremy Percy

    WR – Brian Thomas Jr. – Jaguars

    Fellow SIS All-Rookie 1st-Team members Brock Bowers and Malik Nabers got most of the spotlight for pass-catching rookies this season, but Thomas gets the nod for our All-Pro 2nd-Team. Only Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson had more receiving yards than Thomas, and they had 42 and 21 more targets than him, respectively. Thomas ranked 5th in Total Points among all receivers, which is even more impressive considering Trevor Lawrence played only about half the season. – Anthony Haage

    TE – Trey McBride – Cardinals

    McBride had a stellar season for Arizona and ended as the 11th-best receiver in terms of Total Points and ranked 10th in EPA. He didn’t get into the end zone until the final two games of the season, but he finished with 13 games played with either 5+ receptions or 70+ receiving yards. In addition to his receiving totals, he ranked as the 3rd-best blocking tight end overall for Blocking Total Points, and he ranked first in Points Above Replacement. – Anthony Haage

    T – Dion Dawkins – Bills 

    Dion Dawkins was spectacular this season as the blind side protector for the Bills’ high-powered offense. Dawkins led all offensive tackles in Total Points this season with 38. He finished top-5 among left tackles in Pass Blocking Total Points and 2nd at his position in Run Blocking Total Points. – Jeremy Percy

    T – Lane Johnson – Eagles

    Johnson continued to be a reliable force on the stout Eagles’ offensive line, limiting Blown Blocks to a lowly 1.6% rate, good for second best among all tackles (minimum 100 snaps). He amassed 32 Total Points and earned a spot on our All-Pro 2nd Team. – Kyle Shatto

    G – Joe Thuney – Chiefs

    Thuney has been a constant along the interior for the Chiefs since joining them in 2021. Thuney ranked 2nd in Pass Blocking Total Points and finished top 10 in Total Points and Points Above Replacement among left guards. – Conner Hrabal

    G – Quinn Meinerz – Broncos

    Meinerz put together another great year in the Broncos offensive line. He finished 6th among all OL in Total Points (3rd among all guards) with 37. He also finished top 10 for all OL (4th among all guards) in Points Above Replacement and limited his Blown Block Rate to 1.6% as well. – Chad Tedder

    C – Creed Humphrey – Chiefs

    Humphrey was an anchor on the Chiefs interior line. He was first among all linemen in Passing Blown Block Rate with 0.6% (minimum 400 pass blocking snaps). He was also top-10 in Rushing Blown Block Rate among centers (minimum 200 run blocking snaps), and 5th in Total Points among centers. – Ryan Rubinstein

    2nd Team Defense

    Position Name Team
    DT Chris Jones Chiefs
    DT Jalen Carter Eagles
    EDGE Jared Verse Rams
    EDGE Trey Hendrickson Bengals
    LB Zaire Franklin Colts
    LB Bobby Wagner Commanders
    CB Christian Gonzalez Patriots
    CB Kenny Moore II Colts
    S Xavier McKinney Packers
    S Kyle Hamilton Ravens
    S Geno Stone Bengals

    DT – Chris Jones – Chiefs

    It’s no surprise to see Chris Jones on one of the SIS All-Pro teams again. He led all defensive tackles in Pass Rush Total Points with 30. Additionally, while he finished with only 5 sacks in the regular season, the nine-year veteran once again wreaked havoc against offensive line units as he tied Osa Odighizua of the Cowboys for the lead among defensive tackles with 61 pressures. – Jordan Edwards

    DT – Jalen Carter – Eagles

    Carter terrorized offensive lines all season. He finished 4th among defensive tackles in Total Points and finished in the top-5 among all DTs in both Run Defense Total Points and Pass Rush Total Points. His unique, violent pass rush style allowed him to accumulate 47 pressures on the year. – Kyle Shatto

    ED – Jared Verse – Rams 

    The rookie Verse took the league by storm and put together an All-Pro caliber season. He finished 2nd in pressures among all defenders with 72, trailing only All-Pro Trey Hendrickson. He seemed to always find a way to get to opposing quarterbacks. He also was a force against opposing rushers, as he finished 1st among all DEs with 21 Run Defense Total Points. – Jared Maslin

    ED – Trey Hendrickson – Bengals 

    Hendrickson put together another stellar season, as he seemed to terrorize opposing quarterbacks. He finished 1st in Pass Rush Total Points with 39, while leading all defenders in pressures with 85, 13 more than 2nd place. Hendrickson was also the league leader in sacks with 17.5, which was 3.5 more than 2nd place. – Jared Maslin

    LB – Zaire Franklin – Colts 

    Zaire Franklin was a tackling machine this season, pacing the entire league in total tackles with 173, 10 tackles more than the next highest defender. He also finished tied for 2nd in the NFL in forced fumbles with 5. Franklin picked off 2 passes, which is tied for the league lead at his position, and contributed 21 Pass Defense Total Points, good for 5th among linebackers. – Jeremy Percy

    LB – Bobby Wagner – Commanders 

    Wagner proved again why he is headed to the Hall of Fame with another fantastic season in year 13. Wagner finished 5th among linebackers in Total Points. He ranked third in Run Defense Total Points among linebackers. He also led all linebackers with 91 of his 132 tackles being short of the 1st down marker. – Jordan Edwards

    CB – Christian Gonzalez – Patriots

    As a second-year pro, Gonzalez ranked 3rd among cornerbacks in Total Points. He had 29 Pass Defense Total Points and 12 Points Above Average which ranked Top-8 among CBs. He was also sixth with 77 targets against him, but held opponents to a measly -0.01 EPA Per Target. – Ryan Rubinstein

    CB – Kenny Moore II – Colts 

    Kenny Moore II has been one of the premier slot corners in the league for the past several years, and this year was no different. Moore ranked 5th among cornerbacks in Total Points. He was an all-around demon on the field this year, finishing top-10 among cornerbacks in interceptions (3), tackles for loss (7), Pass Defense Total Points (27), and returned a fumble for a touchdown. – Jeremy Percy

    S – Xavier McKinney – Packers 

    After making a move to the Packers in the offseason, McKinney put together a great season in their secondary. He forced 8 interceptions (2nd most in the league) and totaled 32 Pass Defense Total Points which ranked 5th for all safeties. He also finished Top-10 in Points Above Replacement. – Chad Tedder

    S – Kyle Hamilton – Ravens 

    Kyle Hamilton has quickly become widely regarded as one of the best three-level players in the NFL, making his presence felt all over the field. He finished the 2024 season 7th among safeties in Pass Defense Total Points with 26. He also ranked 4th at his position with 12 pressures (2 sacks) and tied for 3rd in Pass Rush Total Points with 8. – Jeremy Percy

    S – Geno Stone – Bengals

    In a down season for safeties across the league, Stone was a consistent piece in the secondary for the Bengals. He finished 2nd in Coverage Total Points and 2nd in Coverage Points Above Replacement at the safety position to go along with 4 interceptions. His availability was key in his inclusion here with him being 1 of 8 safeties to play more than 600 coverage snaps this season. – Conner Hrabal

    2nd Team Specialists

    Position Name Team
    K Brandon Aubrey Cowboys
    P Matthew Hayball Saints
    Returner Kalif Raymond Lions

    K – Brandon Aubrey – Cowboys

    Aubrey has solidified his place as one of the top kickers in the league, and a lot was asked of him as his 46 FG attempts led the league. Not only was he perfect on extra points, but he also led the league in 40+ and 50+ yard FGs. – Ryan Rubinstein

    P – Matthew Hayball – Saints

    Hayball had a phenomenal season punting for New Orleans, ranking first in the NFL with 27 fair catches, and he had the second-most punts inside the opponents 20 (28). Only Tommy Townsend had more punts inside the 20, but Hayball had less touchbacks than the All-Pro first teamer with just 3 on the year. – Anthony Haage

    RET – Kalif Raymond – Lions

    Raymond led the league with 413 punt return yards while he also added a punt return touchdown to his tally. He had a career-game against the Titans as he recorded 190 PR yards and a TD, and he played a huge part in that Week 9 showdown at Ford Field. – JD Allen

  • Scouts vs Stats: Top 10 Non-Quarterbacks in the NFL

    Scouts vs Stats: Top 10 Non-Quarterbacks in the NFL

    Photo: Brian Lynn/Icon Sportswire

    If you’ve listened to the Off The Charts Football Podcast, you know that we like to examine things from a “Scouts versus Stats” perspective – and so we’ve brought that back for at least one discussion as we wait for the 2024 season to begin. 

    This week’s episode considers a question from those perspectives: Who are the Top 10 non-quarterbacks in the NFL.

    Ex-NFL scout Matt Manocherian and podcast host Bryce Rossler took the scouts’ perspective. Our director of football analytics Alex Vigderman and research analyst James Weaver created a statistical ranking based on a suite of metrics.

    We can tell you that officially, Sports Info Solutions does not condone the dichotomy between scouting and statistical analysis. Each of them provides data in their own way and should inform our evaluation of a player. We want to put the scouting reports and stats side-by-side, leveraging both to come to a conclusion.

    Fair warning: These are vastly different lists.

    Scouts’ Opinion Statistical Analysis
    1. Myles Garrett 1. Derrick Henry
    2. Micah Parsons 2. T.J. Watt
    3. Tyreek Hill 3. Travis Kelce
    4. Justin Jefferson 4. Chris Jones
    5. Nick Bosa 5. Justin Jefferson
    6. T.J. Watt 6. Tyreek Hill
    7. Pat Surtain II 7. Sauce Gardner
    8. Maxx Crosby 8. George Kittle
    9. Roquan Smith 9. Amon-Ra St. Brown
    10. Ja’Marr Chase 10. CeeDee Lamb

    Now that you’ve finished gasping at a running back – and not Christian McCaffrey – ranking No. 1 in the statistical analysis column, let’s explore the contrast of the two lists.

    And let’s get right to the point. Yes, the statistical analysis list has Derrick Henry as the No. 1 non-quarterback.

    In simplest form, our stats group created a methodology that is favorable to where Henry stands in the running back universe. He’s No.1 because he’s been “more better” (for lack of a better term) at running back over the last two years than other players are at their respective positions. 

    The Stats List Methodology

    You can listen to the podcast to hear the discussion regarding the surprising analytics-based ranks, but obviously there’s some explanation needed here. 

    The stats-based ranking includes a two-year average of a player’s results across a handful of flavors of our catch-all Total Points system.

    First, there is Points Above Average (PAA) per play, scaled to the positional average and standard deviation. This encapsulates the extent to which the player excels relative to the position on a play-to-play basis.

    Second, there is Points Above Replacement (PAR), scaled to the league average and standard deviation. This uses our WAR methodology that measures how valuable a player is in general, incorporating a notion of relative positional value.

    This is the first time we’ve mentioned it, but we’re working on a large update to the Total Points system this offseason, which will incorporate a whole bunch of new data points and ideas into the system. We’re not ready to publish those results, but we thought it’d be interesting to include them here to inform our player values.

    So, we have each of the scaled PAA per play and PAR values for each of the two versions of Total Points, equally weighted between the four.

    The one other element that’s included is player aging. Players start to drop off in production within just a few years of coming into the league, so we want to make sure that we’re capturing that. We computed an aging factor for each of the above metrics and applied that to each player’s two-year averages, to make it more like a projection for 2024.

    What the Stats Showed

    Having Derrick Henry number 1 is a bit rich, no? Especially given that McCaffrey exists?

    Let’s take the second point first. Over the last two years, Henry has generated almost 30 more PAA than McCaffrey as a rusher, which doesn’t get sufficiently counterbalanced by McCaffrey’s receiving excellence.

    The gap in rushing is in large part to the difference in their circumstances. Henry has continued to be productive year after year despite having the most carries in the NFL when the offensive line blew a block in front of him over the last two years, and last year he turned more than 60 percent of those into gains. Henry’s elusiveness has not eluded him yet, with similar or better broken and missed tackle rates to McCaffrey’s.

    The positional value question is a valid one, though. How is a running back rated so highly in general? In short, we can only measure what we have access to, and that informs how we value positions. 

    A running back can fumble or get stuffed for a loss on third down, losing a big chunk of value, in a way that a pass rusher or a center does not often do. So the depth of the floor for a running back is more extreme, at least in the statistical record. That means that within the Points Above Replacement framework, the floor for rushers is lower than you think, and therefore the position as a whole is considered more valuable.

    The other big contrast

    The scouts’ list has several edge rushers on it. The stats list is lacking in them.

    Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons are at worst among the handful of best defensive players in the league, so there’s not much to say about them to argue for their inclusion at the top of a crowded field of edge rushers. Parsons is probably the pick if you need one guy to wreck a play, but consistent with their general approach, Garrett got the nod because of how he impacts all phases of the game.

    An otherworldly motor against the pass and the run got Maxx Crosby onto the list, and the scouts were indignant at his exclusion from the stats-based list—but only moderately indignant compared to what happened at the top of the board.

    So why are many of the top pass rushers in the league not at the top of the stats-based list (although the upcoming Total Points updates will do a lot to make up for that)?

    There are more excellent edge rushers than there are excellent interior players, so a single player at the top stands out more in the interior. Chris Jones projects to be one of the biggest risers in the updated Total Points because of how much he dominates as a pass rusher from the interior, as he ranked first and third in 2023 and 2022 in pressure rate, respectively. This isn’t true for the edge rushers, where there are many solid producers.

    Parsons will have a similar jump to Jones, but he’s competing at a much tougher position at the top. There are six edge rushers in the top 20 on the stats-based list, compared to just two interior defenders.

    Also, our measure of the floor of a defensive front player isn’t as low as it is for other positions—a bad play by a cornerback or a running back is more likely to be a big liability. As a result, when we determine replacement level for each position, we don’t have as much value assigned to pass rushers as we do other positions.

    Other highlights from the stats list

    Travis Kelce might have been a more palatable choice for this list a year ago, but it’s worth noting that he still posted the best receiving PAA among tight ends last season. George Kittle’s balanced skill set got him on the list, coming in the Top 2 in Receiving and Blocking Total Points among tight ends. However, even at a younger age, it doesn’t make up for the gap in receiving production.

    The lists differed on which of the top cornerbacks cracked their lists, with Sauce Gardner getting the nod thanks to his consistent production across his first two seasons. He finished in the top 10 each of the last two seasons in yards allowed per coverage snap, yielding fewer than 700 receiving yards in nearly two years. 

    Amon-Ra St. Brown snuck onto the stats-based list because of how well he does his job, even though his job might be limited relative to others at the position. He is as money as it gets in big spots, ranking second in the NFL in both On-Target Catch Rate and third down completions over the last two years.

    CeeDee Lamb is there because of his production in 2023, specifically ranking first in Receiving Total Points. The updates to Total Points will ding him because of his merely good catch rate on accurate balls, which is why he ended up below St. Brown, for example.

    Other highlights from the scouts’ list

    While the stats-based list was heavy on wide receivers, the scouts-based list was heavy on edge rushers, to the point that they felt the need to stretch for a couple of less-valuable positions.

    In the interest of being less boring, the scouts included Roquan Smith as an off-ball linebacker choice. He’s a downhill player and an “enforcer,” per Matt, and while he doesn’t have the crazy athleticism that other potential candidates do, he closed the gap in that respect in 2023 in terms of being an excellent well-rounded player.

    The scouts really only considered two cornerbacks for their list, and they went with Pat Surtain II over Gardner as the prototypical corner with versatility and consistency that very few corners have.

    Ja’Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb were candidates  for the back end of their list, with Chase getting the nod because “he’s more of a headache in more ways that lead to touchdowns for him and for other players on his offense.” This also contributed to the choice of Tyreek Hill as their top receiver. 

    Want to hear the rest of the debate and discussion? Check out Off The Charts wherever you get your podcasts.