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Tag: Nick Foles

  • Statistically speaking, who’s better for the Bears: Nick Foles or Mitch Trubisky?

    By BRYCE ROSSLER

    Yesterday, the Jaguars and the Bears announced a blockbuster trade, the exchange of Nick Foles for a fourth-round pick. In trading for Foles, Ryan Pace has created some competition at quarterback and has given 2016 Third Team All-ACC selection Mitch Trubisky something to think about. 

    It is ironic that two players who were once the subject of imaginary bidding wars now share a quarterback room. Pace infamously jumped himself in order to take Trubisky, and David Caldwell is a year removed from giving Foles an above-market contract to buy him respect in the locker room.

    Now, the fate of the Bears top bosses hangs in the balance and it’s up to either Foles or Trubisky to come through. The question is, which one?

    Simply put, Foles represents a significant upgrade over Trubisky from a Total Points perspective (Total Points is our player value metric, which can be looked at in sum or on a per-snap basis). His 90.2 Passing Points/1000 Snaps in 2019 nearly lapped Trubisky’s (45.3). For a Bears team that was on the playoff bubble and had a negative point differential, a few extra points might have gone a long way for changing the fortunes of the team. 

    This is not to say that Foles is a long-term solution at the position, but Trubisky wasn’t even one of the 32 best QBs in the NFL by this metric in 2019, ranking 36th. This is curious considering he was just a year removed from ranking 31st en route to a bid as a Pro Bowl alternate — the great shining hope of Chicago.

    But, Foles is something of a Pro Bowl alternate himself and has at least shown flashes throughout his career. His best season in recent memory came in 2018, when he ranked 11th in the NFL in Passer Points/1000 Snaps (147.9). A career-high in completion percentage that year (72.3%) could partially be attributed to the rate at which the Eagles used RPOs. 

    Philadelphia ranked 3rd in RPO usage in 2018 and Foles is now with a team that has ranked first and second in RPO usage the past two years. While most QBs averaged a higher EPA/throw off RPOs than other dropbacks, Trubisky was only marginally better in this area, ranking 30th out of 42 quarterbacks with at least 100 total attempts. 

    Foles, on the other hand, ranked 10th. Foles has also been a slightly more effective deep ball passer since 2017, posting a 36% success rate on throws of at least 20 air yards. Lastly, his ability to avoid disaster (2.6% turnover-worthy throw rate) is superior to Trubisky’s (3.9%).

    If the Foles experiment is to work in Chicago, it is unlikely to be because Foles caught lightning in a bottle and recaptured his Super Bowl magic of yesteryear. It will be because of improved performance within an offensive staple, better deep ball success, and a general avoidance of the misfortune and bad turnover luck that comes with drafting a backup quarterback with the second overall pick.

  • On Nick Foles’ now-annual resurgence

    By ALEX VIGDERMAN

    Another year, another late-season Carson Wentz injury forcing Nick Foles back into the spotlight. The Eagles squeaked into the last spot in the NFC playoffs thanks to Foles regaining his form from the end of last season. It’s a fascinating turn of events after he looked like he had turned into a pumpkin earlier in the season.  This week’s matchup with the Bears doesn’t do him any favors, but let’s see where Foles has made his bones over the last month and see how that matches up with Chicago.

    In the first two weeks of the 2018 season, Foles had a 71.2 Independent Quarterback Rating (SIS’s adjusted Passer Rating that isolates the impact of factors within the quarterback’s control). In his last three games, his IQR has been 109.2.  He leads the league with 86 percent catchable throws in that time frame.

    Part of the narrative has been that head coach Doug Pederson has given Foles quicker reads, simplifying the game for him. There’s definite truth to that. Foles has taken a three-step drop or shorter as frequently as anyone in the last few weeks, whereas in the first two weeks he was taking short drops at a below-average rate. And that doesn’t even include the Run-Pass Options (RPOs) that have been such a big part of Philly’s game plan with Foles at the helm.

    The thing is, it’s not like he performs better on those short drops. In 2018, his IQR on zero-to-three-step drops is 98, compared to 100 on rollouts or drops of five or more steps.  So where has he excelled since returning as the starter?

    Downfield Throws are Looking Up

    While Foles has not made a lot of throws downfield in his late-season surge, he’s made them count.

    His excellence on throws at least fifteen yards downfield shouldn’t surprise anyone who has followed his career. In 2013 his monster season (27 TD, 2 INT) was full of deep tosses to Riley Cooper and Desean Jackson. This year, he’s thrown 15 passes at least 15 yards downfield in each of his stints as a starter. Look at the difference in performance from early to late season.

    Nick Foles Performance on Throws at Least 15 Yards Downfield, 2018

    Weeks Att Catchable Comp Yards TD INT IQR
    1-2 15 10 3 82 0 1 10.3
    15-17 15 13 11 370 1 0 131.9

    For context, his completion percentage on those throws was worst in the league through Week 2 and best in the league in weeks 15-17 (minimum 15 attempts both times).  Results on deep throws tend to fluctuate a lot over time, so it’s as likely as not that this is just extreme variance one way followed by extreme variance the other way.

    Unfortunately for the Eagles, their Wild Card opponents, the Bears, are as good as anyone against downfield throws.  Of course, they’re the best defense in the league this year, so they’re as good as anyone at almost everything.  They trail only the Bills in Passer Rating allowed on downfield passes across the entire season (59), with an absurd rating of 22 on those throws from Week 9 forward.

    “The Man” Versus Man

    Early in the season, the Eagles were missing Alshon Jeffery and lost Darren Sproles almost immediately to injury.  In his own way, each of them is an asset against man coverage because of Jeffery’s size and physicality and Sproles’ agility.

    Since Foles returned to the starting job in Week 15, while Zach Ertz has continued to be peppered with targets regardless of the situation, Jeffery, Sproles, and Nelson Agholor have feasted in particular against man coverage.  When seeing man, Foles has thrown for 309 yards and 5 touchdowns on 19 throws to those three alone (good for over 16 yards per target).  Everyone else has seen 29 targets but yielded only 187 yards and two touchdowns (a mere 6.4 yards per target).  Overall, he has the best IQR in the NFL over the last three weeks against man.

    You might have seen this coming, but the Bears are bad news here as well.  They are also second in the NFL in Passer Rating allowed in man coverage (at 76), and have also improved in this arena over the second half of the season (47 since Week 12).

    Foles has been a revelation for the third time in his career.  It’s impossible to count him out at this point given his track record, but the Eagles’ Wild Card opponent presents a particularly strong challenge based on what Foles has done well so far this year.