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  • Scouts vs. Stats: Top 10 NFL Quarterbacks

    Scouts vs. Stats: Top 10 NFL Quarterbacks

    Photo: Ian Johnson and Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire

    Over the spring/summer, the SIS R&D staff is convening on the Off the Charts Podcast to talk about their top ten players at a position. To do this, we pit two methodologies against each other: 

    • The “Scouts,” which comes down to the film-based opinions of Matt Manocherian and Bryce Rossler, each of whom has a lot of experience breaking down film and scouting players (Matt having been a scout for NFL teams).
    • The “Stats,” which involves James Weaver and Alex Vigderman devising a ranking based on a suite of metrics, and having that ranking speak for itself.

    Officially, Sports Info Solutions does not condone the dichotomy between scouting and statistical analysis. Each of them provides data in their own way and should inform our evaluation of a player. 

    When we originally produced the Football Rookie Handbook before transitioning that content to our NFL Draft site, we put the scouting reports and stats side-by-side with the idea that the reader would bounce back and forth between them and leverage both to come to a conclusion about a prospect.

    This week, we flipped sides, with Alex and James providing their scouting insights while Bryce and Matt assumed the mantle of the nerds. With quarterbacks, it was easy for everyone to agree on the No. 1 guy, but there were some differences of opinion along the way.

    Scouts’ Opinion Statistical Analysis
    1. Patrick Mahomes 1. Patrick Mahomes
    2. Joe Burrow 2. Justin Herbert
    3. Josh Allen 3. Josh Allen
    4. Jalen Hurts 4. Aaron Rodgers
    5. Justin Herbert 5. Jalen Hurts
    6. Trevor Lawrence 6. Joe Burrow
    7. Aaron Rodgers 7. Tua Tagovailoa
    8. Lamar Jackson 8. Dak Prescott
    9. Dak Prescott 9. Kirk Cousins
    10. Russell Wilson 10. Derek Carr

    The Stats List Methodology

    The stats-based ranking includes a three-year recency-weighted average of a player’s per-snap performance in Total Points, with their most recent season having a weight of 3, the second-most recent having a weight of 2, and their third-most recent having a weight of 1.

    Total Points arguably evaluates quarterback performance better than any other position, if only because there is an abundance of data points related to quarterback play that factor into it.

    Matt and Bryce initially thought to blend it with a second weighted EPA model that incorporated variables like Expected On-Target +/- (xOnTgt+/-) and throw depth, but concerns about historical sample with respect to xOnTgt+/- ultimately led them to decide that keeping it simple was best.

    It should also be noted that this methodology was not limited to Passing Total Points; Rushing Total Points is equally factored in, and that is reflected in the placement of players like Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, both of whom have been extremely productive on the ground.

    What the Stats Showed

    As Matt noted, it would have been difficult to tweak the model in a way to dethrone Patrick Mahomes.

    “In terms of Z-scores, the difference between Patrick Mahomes and the second-ranked player, Justin Herbert, was bigger than the difference between Herbert and Derek Carr [the 10th-ranked player],” Matt said, “Mahomes was two standard deviations above average; the next-highest Z-score was Herbert, who was a little over one standard deviation above average.” 

    After a clear tier break, Herbert and Allen rounded out the top three, being the two of the remaining three players on the list to have ranked in the top 10 in Passing Total Points/play each of the last two years. (Herbert ranked 6th and 1st in 2022 and 2021, respectively; with Allen ranking 10th and 8th.)

    Allen’s rushing also proved to be a windfall for him, with Bryce pointing out that, in 2022, the Bills generated 11 EPA on running plays, with Allen himself accounting for 33 rushing EPA.

    Dak Prescott also ranked in the Top 10 in Passing Points/snap each of the past two years, but missed most of 2020 with an injury. Another player whose 2020 hurt them a bit in the stats ranking was Joe Burrow, whose ill-fated rookie season dampened his placement, despite performing well each of the past two years. 

    Following Burrow was Tua Tagovailoa, whose extremely efficient Year 3 with Mike McDaniel and Tyreek Hill was enough to propel him into the Top 10, despite not ranking in the Top 20 in Passing Total Points in either of his first two seasons in the league.

    What the Scouts Thought

    The scouts’ list likewise featured Patrick Mahomes at No. 1 and Josh Allen at No. 3, but Alex and James opted to place Burrow second rather than Herbert.

    Their reasoning?

    “Burrow just has that ‘It’ factor and has produced more results at this point than Herbert,” James said, “He went into Kansas City and beat Patrick Mahomes, which is something Herbert hasn’t done yet, and there’s something to be said for that.”

    After that, there was a tier break with Jalen Hurts and the aforementioned Herbert placed at No. 4 and No. 5, respectively. The scouts expressed a bit of apprehension about Hurts simply because the Philadelphia offense was an extremely good fit for him last year, but still asserted that his leadership, his running ability, and his deep ball are reasons to be optimistic about him moving forward.

    The scouts also included Trevor Lawrence (No. 6), Lamar Jackson (No. 8), and Russell Wilson (No. 10) in their list, despite all of them having bad statistical years at some point within the last three seasons. James was bullish on Lawrence’s prospects moving forward, citing his arm talent, his mobility, and his command of the offense in Year 2 as very positive signs. Jackson was given the benefit of the doubt with respect to his injuries and the supporting cast around him the last few seasons, and Wilson likewise got a pass for a dysfunctional first year in Denver, but the scouts did note that he’s likely past his prime.

    Want to hear more discussion and debate? Check out this episode of the podcast:

  • What Do Russell Wilson & Carson Wentz Bring Their New Teams

    What Do Russell Wilson & Carson Wentz Bring Their New Teams

    Russell Wilson – Denver Broncos

    Denver has continued to seek a quarterback since Peyton Manning’s Super Bowl winning team in 2015-16, with a revolving door of “wow, remember him?” names, including Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler, Paxton Lynch, Case Keenum, Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, and more. It should come as no surprise they were very aggressive in acquiring a QB they can trust.

    Sending Drew Lock, Noah Fant, Shelby Harris, multiple first round picks, and more throw-ins to Seattle, the Broncos acquired the quarterback who defeated them 43-8 in Super Bowl XLVIII. Will the investment be worth it?

    Russell Wilson is coming off an up-and-down 2021 season, where he posted a statline of 3,113 yards, 65% completion percentage, 25:6 TD:INT, with 9.3 Passing Total Points Per 60 Plays, good for 18th-best among QBs with at least 100 attempts. Looking back at the first half of 2020 while he was an MVP candidate, his 15.6 Total Points Per 60 Plays, third best in the league. Aggregating over the last two seasons, WIlson ranks just inside the Top 10.

    Drew Lock recorded 5 Passing Total Points Per 60 Plays in 2020, ranking 28th in the league, and Bridgewater’s 10.0 in 2021 was 14th-best, which ranked a smidge higher than Wilson. It should be noted that Wilson was struggling with a finger injury for most of those games.

    The Broncos of the future are going to hold a different identity, and it isn’t just from the QB change. Vic Fangio was fired, and former Green Bay offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett is taking over as Head Coach. While Hackett was not the primary play caller, he was heavily involved in devising the game plans that gave Aaron Rodgers back-to-back MVP awards. 

    The 2021 Packers mostly operated out of 11 personnel, but their 12 personnel usage ranked 2nd-highest, and they ranked 4th-highest in 4 WR sets. Trading Fant to Seattle suggests that Denver might not be leaning too hard on the 2 TE packages, but the four-wide looks would be a new feel for Wilson.

    The 2021 Packers called more passes with four receivers on the field than the Seahawks did the last three years combined.

    The Packers used motion at the fifth-highest rate in the league, on 54% of plays, a stark contrast to the third-lowest 31% motion rate by the Seahawks. This is one of a number of ways in which the offense Wilson leaves was a bit stale.

    Rodgers was extremely effective in short dropbacks, with a league high 118.5 IQR (SIS Independent Quarterback Rating, which factors out things outside a QBs control like dropped passes and dropped interceptions). Comparably, Wilson ranked 9th at 103.0, and Bridgewater 14th at 97.1.

    Even on short drops, Wilson separates himself with his downfield aggression and willingness to let the play develop. He ranked one spot better than Rodgers in IQR on deep drops, with a throw depth of 18.9 yards on average, much higher than any other QB (Rodgers was at 11.5). This was all under a league-high pressure rate of 54.5%, which it should be noted is partly his doing by extending plays. Wilson continues to be one of the league’s best on deep drops with long throws.

    With a receiving room of Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, Albert Okwuegbunam, and KJ Hamler, Wilson will have weapons at all levels of the field, even if the top two aren’t in the same tier of Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf.

    Denver paid a high price to find some consistency at the QB position. The Broncos were in the postseason mix last year at 7-10, and with Wilson’s improvements and an offensive scheme that will resemble 2021’s best, they could be considered contenders. Right now, they sit at the 5th-highest odds to win the Super Bowl at 12-1, which is impressive considering the other teams in their division.

    Carson Wentz – Washington Commanders

    After striking out on Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell WIlson, the Commanders found themselves looking at yet another year with a QB desire. With a new name, logo, and uniform set, Washington opted to trade for former division rival Carson Wentz, giving multiple mid-round picks to Indianapolis in the deal.

    Washington has continuity in head coach Ron Rivera. After a year as the second-most frequent users of play action, they found a QB that came from the 4th-highest play action team in Indianapolis, meaning Wentz will be asked to do a lot of the same. 

    On play-action passes, Wentz performed the same or slightly worse than the incumbent Washington QB, Taylor Heinicke, in all of IQR, Total Points Per Play, Positive %, Completion %, On-Target %, and Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt, among many others. Simply put, Wentz is probably a lateral move..

    Both of these quarterbacks have reputations of making things happen when things go awry, but in 2021 they were both middling at best.

    Carson Wentz vs. Taylor Heinicke, 2021, Under Pressure

    Comp% On-Target% IQR Sack%
    Wentz 47.5% 59% 72.2 16%
    Heinicke 53.0% 66% 71.0 21%

     

    Where Wentz shows up as an improvement over Heinicke is when the pocket stays clean. This is particularly true on non-play-action dropbacks, but it shows across all unpressured dropbacks.

    Carson Wentz vs. Taylor Heinicke, 2021, Clean Pocket

    Comp% On-Target% IQR INT%
    Wentz 69.3% 77% 108.3 1%
    Heinicke 69.4% 73% 81.1 3%

    The bottom line for Washington fans is, not great. Wentz comes at a much higher salary than Heinicke, and if his 2021 performance is to continue, he offers an improvement on vanilla dropbacks with clean pockets but is at best as good as Heinicke otherwise. He is a good enough starter to keep Washington out of the league’s cellar where many teams acquire their QBs of the future, but I’m reserved on calling them a playoff team yet.

    For more on the QB carousel, check out the latest edition of the Off The Charts Football Podcast.

  • World’s No. 1 QB Rankings: New No. 1 & More Movement

    World’s No. 1 QB Rankings: New No. 1 & More Movement

    By MARK SIMON & ALEX VIGDERMAN

    There was some significant movement in our World’s No. 1 Quarterback Rankings as the 2020 NFL regular season concluded.

    One product of our system is that inactivity hurts. As such, Aaron Rodgers did enough in his Week 17 showing to edge past Patrick Mahomes into the No. 1 spot entering the playoffs. Rodgers had closed the gap considerably in Week 16, as Mahomes had his worst game by Points Above Average (PAA) in the last three seasons in the Chiefs’ win over the Falcons.

    Rodgers has been what most quarterbacks have not been–ultra-consistent. He put up 10 straight games with a positive PAA, with his only negative being a -0.3 in Week 17 (in which three dropped interceptions served to counteract his stellar base-level stat line of 19-for-24 with four touchdowns).

    Given that our tracking continues into the postseason, perhaps the debate over the World’s No. 1 Quarterback will get settled in the Super Bowl.

    The World’s No. 1 Quarterback Ranking is based on a model devised by Bill James to evaluate The World’s No. 1 Starting Pitcher. Bill’s model was based on cumulative evaluation of individual starts over an extended time period using the metric Game Score. The World’s No. 1 Quarterback Ranking uses our player value stat, Total Points to make a cumulative evaluation of game performance over a three-year period. The key to our calculation is PAA, the statistical underpinning of Total Points that is centered at zero so that positive numbers are above average and negative numbers are below average.

    Success over time is key to maintaining a good ranking. Prolonged inactivity results in a ranking drop. The most recent performances carry the most weight.

    The Mahomes-Rodgers flip wasn’t the only notable change in our rankings. Take a look at our new Top 10:

    1. Aaron Rodgers

    2. Patrick Mahomes

    3. Tom Brady

    4. Deshaun Watson

    5. Josh Allen

    6. Russell Wilson

    7. Derek Carr

    8. Lamar Jackson

    9. Ryan Tannehill

    10. Kirk Cousins

    BestQuarterback_Top10QBs_2020Week17

    Apparently Tom Brady still had something left. After throwing two interceptions in Week 1, Brady ranked 14th, and even after recovering from that, he was still in the No. 9 slot after throwing three interceptions against the Saints in Week 9.

    But Brady got hot at the right time. He had his best and third-best games in the last three weeks of the season. He’s the leader among quarterbacks in PAA since Week 10, nearly nine points ahead of the closest quarterback, Lamar Jackson.

    Much of Brady’s value since Week 10 has stemmed from late-down success. He has the most Points Earned of any quarterback on third and fourth downs in that span, due in part to his six third-down touchdowns, second-most of any quarterback. He was also among the best passers in terms of air yards per completion during that run.

    Josh Allen’s ascent to No. 5 is also noteworthy. His career-best game by PAA came in Week 16 against the Patriots, one week after he had a big game against the Broncos. After starting the season as the No. 24 ranked quarterback, Allen moved into the top 10 after the Bills’ win in Week 4 against the Raiders. His only significant step back came when he threw two interceptions in a loss to the Cardinals, which dropped him from No. 7 to No. 10. But since Week 13, he’s had the fourth-highest PAA total of any quarterback. His leap to elite status will be tested this postseason.

    Lamar Jackson took a circuitous route to his current No. 8 ranking. He started the season as the No. 6 quarterback, bumped to No. 4 after a big game against the Browns in Week 1. Then came a decrescendo including two of the worst games of the season, when he scored -16 PAA against the Bengals and -14 PAA against the Steelers. Jackson slipped all the way to No. 18 before making a steady climb. He’s held the No. 8 spot the last two weeks.

    Jackson has been better with both the run and the pass during the Ravens’ five-game winning streak.

    First 10 Games

    Last 5 Games

    Comp Pct

    63%

    67%

    TD-Int

    15-6

    11-3

    Sacks

    24

    5

    Rush Yards Per Game

    57.5

    86

    The most prominent drop in the rankings is Russell Wilson’s.

    Wilson is often viewed as a Top-3 quarterback but has now slipped to No. 6 overall.

    He started the season with seven straight games with a non-negative PAA. But he had five negative-PAA games in his last nine games. He finished the regular season with 13 interceptions and also hurt his rating with a pair of multi-fumble games in those last nine contests.

    Here are the full rankings through the final week of the regular season.

    Rk Player PAA per 60 Last Rk Start Of Season
    1 Aaron Rodgers 7.2 2 2
    2 Patrick Mahomes 7.1 1 1
    3 Tom Brady 5.4 4 11
    4 Deshaun Watson 5.3 3 14
    5 Josh Allen 4.1 7 24
    6 Russell Wilson 3.9 5 3
    7 Derek Carr 3.0 6 5
    8 Lamar Jackson 2.9 8 6
    9 Ryan Tannehill 2.5 11 23
    10 Kirk Cousins 2.4 10 8
    11 Matt Ryan 2.4 12 10
    12 Drew Brees 2.1 9 4
    13 Justin Herbert 1.9 14 N/A
    14 Philip Rivers 1.9 13 12
    15 Matthew Stafford 0.9 16 16
    16 Kyler Murray 0.6 15 17
    17 Baker Mayfield 0.4 17 35
    18 Ryan Fitzpatrick 0.0 19 13
    19 Dak Prescott 0.0 20 7
    20 Taysom Hill -0.4 21 18
    21 Teddy Bridgewater -0.7 18 22
    22 Jacoby Brissett -0.8 22 9
    23 Jared Goff -1.1 23 15
    24 Cam Newton -1.2 27 28
    25 Joe Burrow -1.5 24 N/A
    26 Jimmy Garoppolo -1.8 26 20
    27 John Wolford -1.9 N/A N/A
    28 Drew Lock -2.1 36 53
    29 Chad Henne -2.2 N/A N/A
    30 Marcus Mariota -2.2 28 40
    31 Mason Rudolph -2.4 58 66
    32 Matt Moore -2.4 30 25
    33 C.J. Beathard -2.4 61 54
    34 Gardner Minshew -2.4 31 41
    35 Jeff Driskel -2.5 32 31
    36 Chase Daniel -2.6 33 26
    37 Brett Hundley -2.6 34 32
    38 Matt Schaub -2.6 35 33
    39 Blake Bortles -2.6 37 34
    40 Tua Tagovailoa -2.6 25 N/A
    41 Blaine Gabbert -2.7 38 60
    42 DeShone Kizer -2.7 42 49
    43 Andy Dalton -2.7 29 57
    44 Sean Mannion -2.7 43 51
    45 Joe Webb -2.7 44 59
    46 Joshua Dobbs -2.7 45 52
    47 Josh McCown -2.7 46 55
    48 Ben Roethlisberger -2.7 47 36
    49 AJ McCarron -2.8 51 58
    50 Jameis Winston -2.8 52 30
    51 Kyle Allen -2.8 53 76
    52 Matt Barkley -2.8 54 64
    53 Garrett Gilbert -2.8 55 N/A
    54 Taylor Heinicke -2.8 56 72
    55 Nate Sudfeld -2.9 41 44
    56 Nathan Peterman -2.9 57 77
    57 Tyrod Taylor -2.9 59 63
    58 Case Keenum -2.9 60 38
    59 Colt McCoy -3.0 62 71
    60 David Blough -3.0 63 43
    61 Chris Streveler -3.0 N/A N/A
    62 Devlin Hodges -3.0 65 70
    63 Joe Flacco -3.1 64 62
    64 Brian Hoyer -3.1 66 69
    65 Brett Rypien -3.3 69 N/A
    66 Robert Griffin III -3.3 70 61
    67 Phillip Walker -3.3 49 N/A
    68 Jarrett Stidham -3.3 67 N/A
    69 Jalen Hurts -3.4 68 N/A
    70 Ben DiNucci -3.4 71 N/A
    71 Josh Rosen -3.5 72 78
    72 Nick Mullens -3.5 73 37
    73 Daniel Jones -3.5 77 73
    74 Kendall Hinton -3.6 74 N/A
    75 Will Grier -3.6 75 79
    76 Alex Smith -3.7 76 21
    77 Mike Glennon -3.8 79 39
    78 Brandon Allen -3.9 50 67
    79 Nick Foles -3.9 78 27
    80 Ryan Finley -4.4 80 80
    81 Dwayne Haskins -4.4 81 29
    82 Jake Luton -4.7 82 N/A
    83 Mitchell Trubisky -4.8 83 68
    84 Carson Wentz -5.0 84 19
    85 Sam Darnold -5.7 85 42

  • Who were the best QBs on long passes in 2020?

    By KYLE RODEMANN

    Completing a deep pass can be a vital turning point in a game. In Week 17 of the 2020 NFL season, the Titans needed to secure a victory against the Texans. They were tied with less than a minute left and it looked like the game would go into overtime. Then Ryan Tannehill completed a deep pass to A.J. Brown that allowed the team to kick a field goal and win the game.

    That wasn’t the only such meaningful deep throw of 2020. There were plenty of them.

    Who were the best NFL QBs at completing the long pass this season? This article will take a look at different stats ranging from usage to overall effectiveness.

    For our purposes, we’re referring to balls thrown at least 20 yards downfield, unless otherwise stated. Minimum of 25 deep pass attempts.

    Most Deep Balls Attempted

    A quarterback who is known as a risk taker will always keep a defense honest. That defense has to plan around the deep shots, leaving safeties back and loading the box at a lower rate.

    Which quarterbacks have thrown deep the most so far in the 2020 season? The answer is in the table below:

    QuarterbackNumber of Throws
    Tom Brady83
    Matt Ryan75
    Aaron Rodgers72
    Patrick Mahomes66
    Josh Allen65
    Ben Roethlisberger65
    Drew Lock64
    Matthew Stafford62

    Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady ends the year as the league-leader in deep passes attempted. With a head coach in Bruce Arians who loves to take deep shots, and a supporting cast of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown, this does not come as a surprise.

    Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan ended the 2020 season with an NFL-high 626 pass attempts and he likes to throw long, so it’s not shocking that he’s second on this list. Perhaps a surprise in the top eight is Drew Lock of the Broncos, a second-year signal caller, though he was known for his arm in college. While he threw the ball deep often, his on-target percentage of 50% was below league-average (52%) and ranked tied for 19th among our 32 qualifiers.

    Highest On-Target Percentage

    It is one thing to attempt deep passes; it is a whole other thing to be accurate on them. On-Target Percentage looks at the percentage of passes that hit the receiver in stride.

    Below is a table of the season leaders in On-Target Percentage on deep balls for 2020.

    QuarterbackOn-Target %
    Cam Newton70%
    Aaron Rodgers64%
    Kirk Cousins63%
    Baker Mayfield63%
    Derek Carr63%
    Kyler Murray61%
    Daniel Jones61%
    League average: 52%

    Patriots quarterback Cam Newton tops this list partly because of where we set our qualifier (25 attempts). He had 28 deep attempts in 2020 and had an on-target percentage of 70% on them. Among the more prolific deep throwers, it was tight at the top of the leaderboard. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers displayed MVP-like accuracy, while Baker Mayfield of the Browns and Kyler Murray of the Cardinals showed us that their future in this area looks bright.

    For those wondering, Mitchell Trubisky (32%), Joe Flacco (39%) and Carson Wentz (39%) were the bottom three quarterbacks on the list. And for those looking for how each player’s completion percentage compares, check out this tweet from Dan Pizzuta of Sharp Football Analysis.

    Highest Touchdown Percentage

    Touchdown percentage not only can tell you how successful a QB is at throwing deep, but also how successful their receivers are at finishing the explosive plays by scoring.

    These QBs threw a touchdown at the highest rate when throwing the ball 20 or more yards downfield:

    QuarterbackTD% (TDs Thrown)
    Patrick Mahomes18% (12)
    Aaron Rodgers17% (12)
    Derek Carr16% (9)
    Deshaun Watson16% (9)
    Dak Prescott15% (4)
    Russell Wilson15% (9)
    Justin Herbert15% (9)
    League average: 10%

    Having Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to throw to has helped Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes top the NFL in TD percentage on long passes. Rodgers makes another appearance on a deep ball leaderboard, and he and Mahomes share the distinction of their receivers being in the top 10 in the league in dropped deep passes, so there were even more touchdowns left on the table.

    A surprising name on this list is Dak Prescott, who missed most of the season due to injury but was incredibly prolific in the early going, leveraging his excellent receiver group and terrible defense.

    Overall

    Points Earned is one way to determine which quarterbacks have made the largest positive impact while throwing the deep ball. Here is a quick explanation of Points Earned, as shared by Alex Vigderman:

    The core assumption of passing Points Earned is that each throw has a certain expected outcome based on information like the route, the depth, and the coverage. From that point, the passer and receiver split responsibility for how well they perform above that expectation. Throwing off-target passes and deserved interceptions (caught or not) will bury a signal-caller, while he will be rewarded for leading receivers to more yards after catch and making something out of a broken pocket.

    A more in-depth explanation can be found here. This stat shows which quarterback has helped his team win the most when throwing the deep ball.

    Of the lists we’ve shown, this is the one that best reflects overall value on long passes. Check out the league leaders below:

    RankPlayerAttemptsPoints Earned
    1Aaron Rodgers7246.5
    2Tom Brady8328.9
    3Derek Carr5628.4
    4Deshaun Watson5826.2
    5Matthew Stafford6220.6
    6Kyler Murray5820
    7Daniel Jones3919.9
    8Russell Wilson6018.9
    9Patrick Mahomes6618.8
    10Justin Herbert6113.5

    If the MVP race was determined by the deep ball, Rodgers would probably win it. He has been lights-out this season when throwing deep, making every leaderboard in this article.

    Who do you think will make this list next year? Any under-the-radar names come to mind? Check back next season to find out!

  • Who were the best quarterbacks throwing long passes in 2019?

    By: Kyle Rodemann

    The deep ball is one of the most exciting plays in the NFL. Momentum can change at the drop of a hat the instant the football leaves the quarterback’s hand. Some quarterbacks are known as deep ball throwers, and this was noted during Sunday’s NFC Wild Card game  when Cris Collinsworth stated that Russell Wilson is the best deep passer in the NFL during the game’s broadcast. Was he right? This article will answer that question.

    For our purposes, we’re referring to passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield, unless otherwise stated.

    The Precision Passers

    Which quarterbacks are most accurate with their deep throws? The table below shows the players with the highest Catchable Percentage on passes that travel at least 20 yards down the field (minimum 30 attempts). This stat looks at the passes that should be caught by the receiver based on where the pass is placed. Keep track of the players on this list, and compare this list to the “gunslinger” table that follows.

    QuarterbackCatchable %
    Jimmy Garoppolo72%
    Matt Ryan67%
    Gardner Minshew60%
    Drew Brees60%
    Daniel Jones60%
    Kirk Cousins59%
    Carson Wentz/Baker Mayfield58%

     This list shows how dominant Jimmy Garoppolo has been when throwing the deep ball, throwing an accurate pass 72% of the time. Compare that to Jameis Winston’s 54%, and you can see why Winston was prone to interceptions.

    In terms of who is completing deep passes most often, Garoppolo leads the league with a 59% completion percentage (19-of-32). He’s followed by Gardner Minshew (22-of-45, 49%), Patrick Mahomes (29-of-62, 47%), Drew Brees (14-of-30, 47%) and Dak Prescott (33-of-74, 45%). 

    The Gunslingers

    A “gunslinger” is a quarterback that takes chances downfield by taking deep shots to their receivers. These quarterbacks are notorious for throwing the deep ball. The 2019 season had plenty of these quarterbacks, with the top gunslinger being known as a risk-taker. Here are the 2019 deep ball attempt leaders:

    QuarterbackNumber of Throws
    Jameis Winston101
    Aaron Rodgers88
    Dak Prescott74
    Philip Rivers73
    Russell Wilson71
    Carson Wentz69
    Deshaun Watson67

    Jameis Winston was a very aggressive quarterback in 2019. He threw 13 more deep balls than the second quarterback on the list, Aaron Rodgers. This comes as no surprise since Winston is known to chuck the ball deep to his top receivers, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Carson Wentz makes a surprise appearance on this list with 69 deep throws. This is a surprise considering most of his starting receivers were injured for a large part of the season. 

    The Touchdown Machines

    Touchdown percentage looks at the percentage of deep throws that result in a touchdown. The following list can help determine where negative regression is possible, as a high touchdown percentage is often unsustainable. Here is the table (minimum 30 attempts):

    QuarterbackTD%
    Jimmy Garoppolo22%
    Patrick Mahomes19%
    Daniel Jones17%
    Kirk Cousins14%
    Drew Brees13%
    Lamar Jackson13%
    Dak Prescott12%
    Tom Brady12%

    Garoppolo again leads this list of deep ball passers. He not only is throwing an accurate ball, but is finding success scoring touchdowns on such plays. Maybe this means Kyle Shanahan will draw up more shots for his quarterback in the postseason? Daniel Jones also makes it on his second list, showing that the rookie has a knack for throwing deep. Keep an eye on him in 2020.

    The Most Impactful

    Points Earned is one way to determine which quarterbacks have made the largest positive impact while throwing the deep ball. Here is a quick explanation of Points Earned, as written by Alex Vigderman:

    The core assumption of passing Points Earned is that each throw has a certain expected outcome based on information like the route, the depth, and the coverage. From that point, the passer and receiver split responsibility for how well they perform above that expectation. Throwing off-target passes and deserved interceptions (caught or not) will bury a signal-caller, while he will be rewarded for leading receivers to more yards after catch and making something out of a broken pocket.

    A more in-depth explanation can be found here. This stat shows which quarterback has helped their team win the most while throwing the deep ball. Check out the league leaders below:

    QuarterbackPoints Earned
    Russell Wilson31.4
    Kirk Cousins28.0
    Dak Prescott23.3
    Gardner Minshew22.3
    Jimmy Garoppolo22.1
    Kyler Murray19.6
    Patrick Mahomes18.6

    Wilson rates best. His 31.4 points is three higher than Kirk Cousins’ 28.0 at number two. This stat shows how impactful Wilson has been on his deep throws.

    Getting specific, Wilson was 30-of-71 (42%) with six touchdowns, two interceptions and 40 catchable throws (56% of throws were catchable). Wilson averaged just over 30 air yards per completion, which ranked second to Ryan Tannehill’s 31 among quarterbacks who completed at least 10 such passes.

    Kyler Murray is a surprise name on this list. The exciting rookie has room to grow in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense.

    Conclusion

    Collinsworth was right in this regard: Wilson is definitely the most impactful deep passer. But there are plenty of other quarterbacks right there with him, including a few who we’ll see this weekend in the Divisional Round. We’ll see which one comes out on top.

  • Which receivers are best at catching long passes?

    By Kyle Rodemann

    Deep threats can change how a defense plays a team. Instead of consistently loading the box to stop the run, safeties will have to play back to stop certain players from taking the top off the defense. There are certain receivers that excel at “going long.” These receivers are coveted by teams and often sought after. Players with rare speed are taken early in drafts even if they aren’t the best prospect at the position.

    This holds true with receivers, as teams are always looking for those burners that can change the momentum of the game in one play. This article will dive into which receivers are excelling at corralling deep throws so far during the 2019 season.

    For our purposes, we’re referring to balls thrown at least 20 yards downfield, unless otherwise stated.

    The Opportunists

    Receivers can’t do anything if their quarterback isn’t throwing them the ball. When a quarterback trusts their receiver, they are more likely to throw one deep in order to flip the field. There have been many deep balls thrown so far in 2019, but which receiver is targeted most downfield? The table below shows the highest targeted receivers on throws at least 20 yards downfield:

    Receiver Deep Targets
    Kenny Golladay 25
    Mike Evans 21
    Curtis Samuel 19
    Keenan Allen 18
    Amari Cooper 17
    DJ Chark Jr. 17
    Will Fuller V 17

    Kenny Golladay leads the pack with a healthy 25 deep targets. Matthew Stafford chucks the ball downfield to Golladay on 35% of his targets! One receiver making a surprise appearance on this list is route-running technician Keenan Allen. He is normally seen as the safety net for Rivers, so it is surprising to see him on this list with 18 deep targets. Will Fuller V has seen 17 targets downfield even though he has missed part of the season due to injury. Look for his numbers to rise once he returns to the field.

    Taking Advantage

    Getting targets downfield is one thing, turning them into receptions is another. Some receivers excel at tracking the ball deep downfield, while others excel at winning 50/50 balls at the point of attack. Either style of play leads to receptions for chunk gains. The table below shows which receivers convert targets into receptions at the highest rate (minimum 10 deep targets):

    Receiver Completion %
    DJ Chark Jr. 65% (11-of-17)
    Amari Cooper 65% (11-of-17)
    Tyler Lockett 62% (8-of-13)
    DK Metcalf 62% (8-of-13)
    Larry Fitzgerald 60% (6-of-10)
    Stefon Diggs 56% (9-of-16)
    Allen Robinson 54% (7-of-13)

    DJ Chark Jr. and Amari Cooper are tied for the lead, catching 64.7% of the deep balls thrown their way. It comes as no surprise, as both receivers are elite at creating separation deep downfield. It should come as no surprise that Russell Wilson found his way into our deep throw leaders article (which can be found here), seeing how two of his top receivers catch 61.5% of the throws he sends their way.

    An interesting tidbit: while Allen has seen a large number of deep targets (18), he is actually last in completion percentage among receivers with at least 10 deep targets; he catches only 16.7% of those targets (3-of-18).

    Helping the QB Look Good

    A quarterback’s Rating can help put the success of a quarterback into a concrete number. This number can vary depending on the receiver that is targeted, and the depth of the target. Certain receivers help their quarterback by returning a high Rating when they are targeted on deep throws. The table below shows league leaders when receiving at least 10 deep throw targets:

    Receiver Receiver Rating
    DJ Chark Jr. 147.7
    Amari Cooper 147.7
    DK Metcalf 145.0
    Demarcus Robinson 135.4
    Adam Thielen 135.4
    Tyreek Hill 132.6
    Tyler Lockett 131.1

    Chark Jr. and Cooper again lead the pack with a 147.7 Rec. Rating. This means the quarterback throwing them the ball has a Rating of 147.7 when throwing them the deep ball. Wilson’s top targets, Metcalf and Lockett, are again both found on this list. It also comes as no surprise that Allen has a Rec. Rating of 25, second to last among receivers with at least 10 deep ball targets.

    The Most Impactful

    Points Earned is one way to determine which receivers have made the largest positive impact while catching the deep ball. Here is a quick explanation of Points Earned, as written by Alex Vigderman:

    The core assumption of receiving Points Earned is that each catch has a certain expected outcome based on information like the route, the depth, and the coverage. From that point, the passer and receiver split responsibility for how well they perform above that expectation. Dropping a pass will bury a receiver, while making contested catches will result in a higher Points Earned.

    A more in-depth explanation can be found here. This stat shows which receivers have helped their team win the most while catching the deep ball:

    Receiver Points Earned
    Kenny Golladay 16.0
    Tyreek Hill 14.8
    DJ Chark Jr. 14.7
    Amari Cooper 10.1
    Marquise Brown 9.9
    Terry McLaurin 9.9
    Mike Evans 8.9

    Golladay has had the largest positive impact among receivers when catching the ball downfield, with 16 Points Earned. Chark Jr. and Amari Cooper find themselves in another table, solidifying how dominant they have been while going long. Marquise Brown and Terry McLaurin both make their first appearance on this table. Maybe this means their teams should be giving them more opportunities to catch deep bombs.

    Conclusion

    Successful field-stretching receivers are hard to come by. Those that excel at chasing down deep balls are nearly impossible to find. Chark Jr. and Cooper are two prime examples of receivers that are consistently targeted deep, and that consistently catch those deep targets.

    Other receivers who perform well when going long, such as Brown and  McLaurin, aren’t afforded the chance to display their talent at a high enough rate to truly take advantage of the deep ball. It will be interesting to see if these teams continue their deep ball tendencies, and it will be interesting to see how these leaderboards change from now until the end of the season.

    QB Leaderboards:

    Here’s an updated look at how quarterbacks are faring in on-target percentage and completion percentage on passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield.

    Highest Catchable % – Passes 20+ Yards Downfield
    Name Catchable % Attempts
    Jacoby Brissett 74% 19
    Jimmy Garoppolo 65% 23
    Matt Ryan 63% 32
    Kirk Cousin 62% 37
    Deshaun Watson 62% 42
    Gardner Minshew 62% 34
    Aaron Rodgers 62% 52
    Russell Wilson 61% 44
    Daniel Jones 59% 32
    Dak Prescott 58% 48
    Highest Completion % – Passes 20+ Yards Downfield
    Name Comp % Attempts
    Russell Wilson 52% 44
    Jimmy Garoppolo 52% 23
    Tom Brady 51% 37
    Gardner Minshew 50% 34
    Dak Prescott 48% 48
    Kirk Cousins 46% 37
    Deshaun Watson 45% 42
    Kyler Murray 43% 42
    Patrick Mahomes 42% 42
    Matthew Stafford 41% 54
    Mitchell Trubisky 41% 27

  • Which quarterbacks are best at throwing long passes?

    By: Kyle Rodemann

    There is nothing quite like the deep ball in the NFL. The anticipation that builds from the moment the ball leaves the QB’s hand and drops in as a game-changing completion gets the blood pumping and adrenaline going. Thrill seekers who are looking for the most exciting games often look for the highest scoring games: and those games often come with big plays and long completions. But which quarterbacks should these thrill seekers be watching? This article will investigate which quarterbacks should be watched when it comes to the deep ball.

    For our purposes, we’re referring to balls thrown at least 20 yards downfield, unless otherwise stated.

    The Gunslingers

    A “gunslinger” is a quarterback that takes chances downfield by taking deep shots to their receivers. These quarterbacks are notorious for throwing the deep ball. So far in 2019, there have been a handful of “gunslingers,” with the No. 1 spot attempting deep throws at a much higher rate than those who follow. Below is a table that shows which quarterbacks have thrown the deep ball the most at the halfway point of the 2019 season:

    Quarterback Number of Throws
    Matthew Stafford 54
    Aaron Rodgers 44
    Russell Wilson 42
    Dak Prescott 42
    Deshaun Watson 42
    Jameis Winston 42
    Phillip Rivers 42

     

    Matthew Stafford has thrown the deep ball the most, and by a large margin; he has done it 23% more than the next highest deep ball thrower, Aaron Rodgers. Stafford has always been a fan of the deep ball but has been leaning heavily on the explosive play during a season that has featured an inconsistent backfield. With the loss of lead back Kerryon Johnson, expect Stafford to continue taking shots downfield.

    The Precision Passers

    The table below will show which passers have been the most accurate on passes that travel at least 20 yards down the field. Catchable Percentage looks at the percentage of passes that should be caught by the receiver based on where the pass is placed. Here are the season leaders in Catchable Percentage on deep balls so far during 2019 (minimum 15 attempts):

    Quarterback Catchable %
    Jacoby Brissett 74%
    Jimmy Garoppolo 70%
    Kirk Cousins 65%
    Daniel Jones 63%
    Matt Ryan 62%
    Russell Wilson 62%
    Deshaun Watson 62%

    This table looks a lot different when compared to the table displaying those quarterbacks who take the most shots. Some of the more timid quarterbacks are on this list, with Brissett only attempting 19 deep balls, and Garoppolo only attempting 20. On the flip side, there are only two players who belong on both lists: Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson. These two passers have taken plenty of shots and have been very accurate while doing so.

    In terms of who is completing the most deep passes, Garoppolo leads with a 60% completion rate (12-of-20). He’s followed by Wilson (23-of-42, 55%), Tom Brady (19-of-37, 51%), Minshew (17-of-34, 50%) and Dak Prescott (21-of-42, 50%). Brady already has one more completion on deep throws than he did all of last season, when he was 18-of-56 (32%).

    The Touchdown Machines

    Touchdown percentage looks at the percentage of deep throws that result in a touchdown. The following list can help determine where negative regression is possible, as a high touchdown percentage is often unsustainable.

    Quarterback TD%
    Jimmy Garoppolo 20%
    Case Keenum 20%
    Patrick Mahomes 19%
    Dak Prescott 17%
    Daniel Jones 17%
    Kirk Cousins 15%
    Tom Brady 14%
    Mason Rudolph 13%

    The long pass leader of last year, Patrick Mahomes, makes his first appearance on this list. It’s not surprising that it’s his first appearance, as he has battled with injury this season. It’s also not surprising to see him finding success while throwing deep, as he throws to one of the fastest players in the NFL in Tyreek Hill. One surprise on this list is Mason Rudolph. While he hasn’t attempted many passes downfield this season (only 23), his deep attempts are resulting in a touchdown on a surprising 13% of throws.

    The Most Impactful

    Points Earned is one way to determine which quarterbacks have made the largest positive impact while throwing the deep ball. Here is a quick explanation of Points Earned, as written by Alex Vigderman:

    The core assumption of passing Points Earned is that each throw has a certain expected outcome based on information like the route, the depth, and the coverage. From that point, the passer and receiver split responsibility for how well they perform above that expectation. Throwing off-target passes and deserved interceptions (caught or not) will bury a signal-caller, while he will be rewarded for leading receivers to more yards after catch and making something out of a broken pocket.

    A more in-depth explanation can be found here. This stat shows which quarterback has helped their team win the most while throwing the deep ball. Check out the league leaders below:

    Quarterback Points Earned
    Russell Wilson 32.2
    Kirk Cousins 24.5
    Aaron Rodgers 21.6
    Gardner Minshew 18.9
    Dak Prescott 17.7
    Deshaun Watson 17.5
    Jimmy Garoppolo 14.0

     

    Russell Wilson has been phenomenal when throwing the deep ball. He leads the league by a hefty margin (7.7 points) when it comes to Points Earned. Wilson and Deshaun Watson, are the only players to make an appearance on three lists in this article, displaying their elite play when throwing passes at least 20 yards downfield. One surprise on this list is Gardner Minshew, who has a Points Earned total of 18.9, 1.4 points higher than Watson. At least in this regard, Minshew-mania is legit.

    Conclusion

    There are few players who truly excel at throwing the deep ball. Wilson and Watson are two players who continually throw the ball downfield, and who continually find success doing so. Quarterbacks who take shots try to will their team to a win. These plays can change momentum in the blink of an eye and are crucial to the success of many teams. We’ll see if these trends continue and if the quarterbacks on this list are still looking long well into January.

  • Go Long! The Best Deep Passers In 2018

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    By Jon Becker

    There are plenty of exciting things to observe during a game of football: long runs for touchdowns, long interception returns, and long field goal kicks, just to name a few. Seeing strength and stamina get pushed to its limits is fun! And so, I thought it’d be fun to revisit my colleague Mark Simon’s post from December on which quarterbacks performed the best on long passes, with the new season soon to come.

    For our purposes, we’re referring to balls thrown at least 20 yards downfield, unless otherwise stated.

    Who attempted the long pass the most?

    As you’d expect, the leader was walking highlight reel and reigning NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs, who attempted 82 such passes. He didn’t lead by all that much, though, with Aaron Rodgers (78) of the Green Bay Packers and Ben Roethlisberger (77) of the Pittsburgh Steelers close behind. Here’s the top 10:

    Patrick Mahomes82
    Aaron Rodgers78
    Ben Roethlisberger77
    Andrew Luck67
    Baker Mayfield66
    Matt Ryan65
    Eli Manning64
    Mitchell Trubisky64
    Case Keenum64
    Russell Wilson61

    Who’s the most successful with them?

    It takes a ton of arm strength to throw the long pass consistently; it might take even more precision to be successful with it consistently. 31 quarterbacks attempted at least 30 deep passes, but only 11 of them were at at least 40%–it’s obviously quite a bit harder to complete a long pass than a short one! The ageless New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees (52%) was the only field general to have more completions than incompletions on the deep ball. Here’s the top 10 of those 31 with at least 30 attempts:

    Drew Brees52.0%
    Russell Wilson47.5%
    Jared Goff47.5%
    Patrick Mahomes42.7%
    Derek Carr42.3%
    Eli Manning42.2%
    Andrew Luck41.8%
    Deshaun Watson41.8%
    Matt Ryan41.5%
    Philip Rivers40.7%

    Who was at the bottom of this list? The three with the lowest completion percentage on deep balls were Cam Newton (23.5%), Sam Darnold (23.6%) and Joe Flacco (25%).

    Who threw the most catchable deep balls?

    Our Video Scouts evaluate whether passes are thrown on-target. The leaderboard is similar to the completion percentage leaderboard with a few exceptions. Drew Brees (66%) and Jared Goff (64%) rank 1-2. Philip Rivers, who ranked No. 10 in completion percentage, moves to No. 3 in throwing catchable balls (63%). Case Keenum of the Washington Redskins, who ranked No. 18 in completion percentage, slots in at No. 4 (59%). Russell Wilson and Matt Ryan (59%) are No. 5 and 6.

    Who Went The Deepest on Average?

    In our closest competition yet, Prescott just barely edged out Roethlisberger in most yards per deep completion last season. Prescott averaged 41.67 yards per completion, whereas Roethlisberger was at 41.63 yards. Not far behind were Ryan Tannehill (39 Y/C) and Carson Wentz (38 Y/C).

    Who Got the Best Results?

    Roethlisberger narrowly missed being atop a couple of the above leaderboards, but he leads in perhaps the most important: touchdowns. Roethlisberger was alone at the top of the list with 11 touchdowns on deep passes, with Mahomes and Wilson one behind him. Roethlisberger did have three interceptions on such attempts, though; the only QB with a perfect ratio and at least 30 deep pass attempts was Rodgers, whose 8 touchdowns came without an interception.

    Who Was Best Overall?

    Roethlisberger would be a good choice, as would Mahomes or Rodgers. But our Total Points metric determines that Wilson was, in fact, the most valuable passer on deep balls. Here’s our Alex Vigderman explaining Total Points for QBs:

    The core assumption of passing Points Earned is that each throw has a certain expected outcome based on information like the route, the depth, and the coverage. From that point, the passer and receiver split responsibility for how well they perform above that expectation. Throwing off-target passes and deserved interceptions (caught or not) will bury a signal-caller, while he will be rewarded for leading receivers to more yards after catch and making something out of a broken pocket.

    Here’s every quarterback with a positive Points Earned on deep passes. Notice Big Ben’s placement:

    Russell Wilson35.2
    Patrick Mahomes33.5
    Aaron Rodgers31.8
    Drew Brees24.5
    Matt Ryan22.3
    Philip Rivers20.6
    Baker Mayfield19.2
    Matthew Stafford18.9
    Andrew Luck18.2
    Jared Goff16.8
    Eli Manning16.0
    Kirk Cousins15.5
    Marcus Mariota12.8
    Deshaun Watson11.9
    Dak Prescott8.9
    Carson Wentz8.6
    Derek Carr7.9
    Case Keenum7.5
    Ben Roethlisberger6.7
    Blake Bortles6.3
    Jameis Winston2.6
    Mitchell Trubisky2.0

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  • Which quarterbacks have had the most success with long throws in 2018?

    For an updated version of this article, which includes all of 2018, click here

    by MARK SIMON

    A quarterback throwing the deep ball is one of the most exciting things you’ll see in a football game. It leads to big plays, sometimes game-changing moments and puts a receiver’s athleticism on display.

    So let’s dig into a few of the numbers related to long passes this season. For our purposes, unless otherwise noted, we’re referring to passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield.

    Who throws them most often?
    The NFL leader in deep pass attempts this season is Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes with 62, just ahead of Aaron Rodgers. Mitchell Trubisky ranks fourth despite having missed two games. He could have been atop the list had he played every game this season.

    Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson led the NFL with 88 deep pass attempts last season. More on him in a moment.

    Most Deep Passes Attempted in 2018
    Patrick Mahomes 62
    Aaron Rodgers 61
    Ben Roethlisberger 58
    Mitchell Trubisky 54
    Matt Ryan 49
    Russell Wilson 47
    Kirk Cousins 47

    Who throws them most accurately?
    An easy explanation for Saints quarterback Drew Brees’ success this season is his success on deep balls. He’s 22-of-37 on them, a 60 percent completion percentage that easily ranks best in the NFL. Two other quarterbacks are at 50 percent or higher — Ryan Fitzpatrick of the Buccaneers (52 percent) and Jared Goff of the Rams (50 percent).

    If we change the criteria to on-target percentage, rather than completion percentage, Goff takes the lead. He’s thrown 31 of his 46 deep passes on target (67 percent).

    The contrasts to Brees and Goff are Jets rookie Sam Darnold and Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott.

    Darnold is 6-of-36 on his deep throws (17 percent, the lowest completion percentage in the league), though that’s not completely his fault. His on-target percentage is 47 percent (17-of-36). Darnold’s backup Josh McCown is actually worse, going 1-of-15 on his deep throws. He was a much more respectable 20-of-46 (43 percent) completing those passes last season.

    Prescott has a 33 percent completion percentage, but an NFL-low 40 percent on-target percentage (12-of-30).

    The NFL averages on deep throws this season are a 37 percent completion percentage and a 52 percent on-target percentage.

    Highest Completion Percentage on Deep Passes – Minimum 25 Attempts
    Attempts
    Drew Brees 59.5% 37
    Ryan Fitzpatrick 51.7% 29
    Jared Goff 50.0% 46
    Russell Wilson 48.9% 47
    Derek Carr 44.2% 43
    Philip Rivers 43.9% 41
    Eli Manning 43.5% 46
    Patrick Mahomes 43.5% 62

    Who is hitting on the deepest deep balls?
    The thin air in Denver is allowing Case Keenum’s balls to carry a bit. He’s average 31.7 air yards on his long pass completions, the highest average in the NFL. He’s about a half-yard better than Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers.

    Who has had the biggest payoff the most often?
    Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger leads the NFL with 10 touchdown passes on deep throws, one more than Wilson and Drew Brees.

    Brees has yet to throw an interception on one of these pass attempts. Roethlisberger has two. Wilson has one.

    On the opposite side of the ledger, Deshaun Watson leads the NFL with five interceptions on those passes. Six quarterbacks have four, including Mahomes.

    In all, quarterbacks have 150 touchdown passes and 89 interceptions on these passes, which averages to 4.7 and 2.8 per team respectively.

    Who is the best overall?
    It would be easy to say that Brees is the top guy, given his completion percentage and his touchdown success on these passes, and if you did, that would be completely fair.

    However, our Total Points system makes a different choice. It goes with Wilson, who ranked seventh last season (Alex Smith and Tom Brady were 1-2).

    To excerpt from Alex Vigderman’s Football Outsiders article on a quarterback’s Passing Points Earned.

    The core assumption of passing Points Earned is that each throw has a certain expected outcome based on information like the route, the depth, and the coverage. From that point, the passer and receiver split responsibility for how well they perform above that expectation. Throwing off-target passes and deserved interceptions (caught or not) will bury a signal-caller, while he will be rewarded for leading receivers to more yards after catch and making something out of a broken pocket.

    Wilson’s volume of success, his rate of success, and the outcomes themselves have combined to put him in the No. 1 spot in terms of which quarterbacks are best at one of the most exciting plays in the game.

    For those wondering about Rodgers, his value gain comes in the drops by his receivers, which are being treated as completed passes in this system. With those, and his performance on 30-yard or longer throws, he vaults ahead of Brees by a hair.

     

    NFL Leaders – Points Earned on Deep Passes
    Pts Comp-Att, TD, INT
    1. Russell Wilson 29.5 23-of-47, 9 TD, 1 INT
    2. Aaron Rodgers 25.8 22-of-61, 6 TD, 0 INT
    3. Drew Brees 23.5 22-of-37, 9 TD, 0 INT
    4. Patrick Mahomes 23.4 27-of-62, 8 TD, 4 INT
    5. Philip Rivers 22.5 18-of-41, 7 TD, 1 INT