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  • 2025 SIS NFL Draft Grades

    2025 SIS NFL Draft Grades

    If you want our full thoughts on the players your team has added plus any UDFA, you can check out our Big Board for tons of great information. And if you’d like to contribute to next year’s draft cycle, consider applying to our Football Data Scout position.

    Welcome to our annual NFL Draft Report Card, in which we grade both the teams and ourselves on how well they fared in this NFL Draft.

    Using our grades, we attempted to rank each team’s draft class. Just like in our article from last season, we assigned all players who were drafted but not on the site a 5.4, which is the equivalent to a training camp body. We took those grades for each player and divided that by the number of selections the team had.

    These rankings do not account for positional value, the value of where players were drafted, or trades teams made; it is literally based on the grades we gave the players who were drafted and how much talent we feel teams got from their selections compared to the number of picks they made.

    And with that, the 2025 Best Draft Class, with an average grade of 6.50, goes to the Cleveland Browns. Much of the talk will be getting Shedeur Sanders in the 5th Round, but they grabbed our No. 2 overall prospect, Mason Graham, at pick No. 5 as well.

    The Browns draft class is in the table below.

    Cleveland Browns 2025 Draft Class
    Pick Position Player College Grade
    5 DT Mason Graham Michigan 6.9
    33 WLB Carson Schwesinger UCLA 6.6
    36 RB Quinshon Judkins Ohio State 6.6
    67 TE Harold Fannin Jr. Bowling Green 6.6
    94 QB Dillon Gabriel Oregon 5.9
    126 RB Dylan Sampson Tennessee 6.2
    144 QB Shedeur Sanders Colorado 6.7

    The Browns take our top spot after having our 2nd-worst spot in 2024. They made a shocking trade early in the draft by trading away the chance to take Travis Hunter and moving back three spots with the Jaguars. However, they did still get the chance to take the No. 2 overall player on our board in DT Mason Graham.

    Due to the trade with Jacksonville, Cleveland ended up with 2 of the first 4 picks in Round 2. The Browns used the first one on Carson Schwesinger out of UCLA. The linebacker class was thin overall. Schwesinger was our No. 2 WLB behind Jihaad Campbell.

    Cleveland doubled up at two separate positions during the draft, and running back was one of them. With their second Round 2 selection, they took Quinshon Judkins out of Ohio State, 1 of 2 in-state players they drafted. We had Judkins ranked No. 4 among RBs, just behind his Ohio State teammate, who was still on the board. Then, in the 4th round, they selected Dylan Sampson (SIS No. 13 RB) out of Tennessee.

    Arguably the most notable thing to come out of the entire draft was the fact the Browns selected two quarterbacks, and not only that, but who they were and the order they took them in. Late in Round 3, they opted to take Dillon Gabriel from Oregon, who was the 5th QB taken to that point, but the No. 10 QB on our board. Then, they traded up in the 5th round to finally end Shedeur Sanders’ fall. Both Gabriel and Sanders create a very crowded and competitive QB room, as they join Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, and Deshaun Watson.

    Not to be forgotten is Harold Fannin Jr. (SIS No. 3 TE, No. 44 Overall), who they selected early in Round 3. Another in-state player from Bowling Green, Fannin crushed numerous TE records in 2024 and should look to compete for snaps in the passing game from day 1.

    SIS Top Draft Classes
    Year Team Previous Season Following Season 2nd Season
    2019 Tennessee Titans 9-7 (No Playoffs) 9-7 (L, AFC Champ) 11-5 (L, Wild Card)
    2020 Cleveland Browns 6-10 (No Playoffs) 11-5 (L, Divisional) 8-9
    2021 Detroit Lions 5-11 (No Playoffs) 3-13-1 9-8
    2022 New York Jets 4-13 (No Playoffs) 7-10 7-10
    2023 Carolina Panthers 7-10 (No Playoffs) 2-15 5-12
    2024 Chicago Bears 7-10 (No Playoffs) 5-12 ?
    2025 Cleveland Browns 3-14 (No Playoffs) ? ?

    Since we grade players based on what they will be at the beginning of Year 2, let’s widen the table of our recent Draft Class winners. 

    After winning as top class in 2019, the Titans made consecutive playoff appearances. While the Browns made the playoffs the next year, the turmoil in that locker room in 2021 forced a fall to 8-9. The Lions did take a dip in 2021 in the first year of a new regime, but they took a huge step forward in 2022, nearly making the playoffs, and then making consecutive playoff appearances the past two seasons. 

    As for the Jets, they improved their record in 2022 and had both the Offensive (Garrett Wilson) and Defensive (Sauce Gardner) Rookies of the Year, but expectations fell in 2023 when Aaron Rodgers went down in Week 1. The Panthers were tough to watch in 2023, but he showed a lot of confidence and a big turnaround in the back half of 2024. The Bears and Caleb Williams went through some growing pains during his rookie season, but they’ve revamped the roster under new head coach Ben Johnson to be able to compete with the rest of the NFC North.

    What does that mean for the Browns this time around? This is the second time they’ve made our top spot immediately after the draft. The last time, they made the playoffs the next season. They now have five QBs competing for the starting job. They’ve revamped the RB room with Nick Chubb’s recent injury history. And, they added Graham and Schwesinger to a defense that already has Myles Garrett, and his new contract, and Denzel Ward. The AFC North is a tough division, and whether or not they are banking on one of these QBs to be their franchise guy or wait for next year’s class, they are building a solid foundation.

    Now, let’s check out how the rest of the teams fared in our rankings. Here are the draft classes ranked in order of their grade:

    2025 Final Rankings
    Rank Team # of Picks Draft Grade
    1 Browns 7 6.50
    2 Falcons 5 6.44
    3 Bengals 6 6.42
    4 Giants 7 6.34
    5 Chiefs 7 6.33
    6 Titans 9 6.30
    7 Cardinals 7 6.29
    8 Jets 7 6.27
    9 Panthers 8 6.26
    10 Saints 9 6.24
    11 Jaguars 9 6.23
    12 Cowboys 9 6.23
    13 Bears 8 6.23
    14 Buccaneers 6 6.22
    15 Bills 9 6.17
    16 Eagles 10 6.16
    17 Dolphins 8 6.15
    18 Steelers 7 6.14
    19 Lions 7 6.14
    20 Texans 9 6.12
    21 Commanders 5 6.12
    22 Seahawks 11 6.12
    23 Raiders 11 6.11
    24 Colts 8 6.09
    25 Vikings 5 6.08
    26 Packers 8 6.08
    27 Ravens 11 6.07
    28 Chargers 9 6.06
    29 Rams 6 6.05
    30 Patriots 11 6.02
    31 Broncos 7 6.01
    32 49ers 11 6.00

    The Falcons were aggressive to address their edge group, drafting Jalon Walker (SIS No. 2 ED, No. 9 Overall) and then trading back into the 1st round for James Pearce Jr. (SIS No. 7 ED, No. 29 Overall), en route to our No. 2 class. The Bengals, Giants, and Chiefs rounded out the top 5. New York took Abdul Carter (SIS No. 1 ED, No. 4 Overall) at pick No. 3 and then traded back into Round 1 for their potential franchise quarterback in Jaxson Dart, then took three straight players with a 6.5 grade. Additionally, the Titans got Cam Ward No. 1 overall on their way to our No. 6 class.

    The bottom three teams for 2025, listed 30 to 32, were the Patriots, Broncos, and 49ers. 

    Philadelphia had our No. 30 class last year and won the Super Bowl. Much like the Eagles last year where they crushed their first two picks (Quinyon Mitchel and Cooper DeJean), the Patriots took LSU’s Will Campbell (SIS No. 1 OT, No. 5 Overall) and Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson (SIS No. 3 RB, No. 33 Overall) with their first two picks. They also drafted Georgia’s Jared Wilson (SIS No. 2 OC), Florida State’s Joshua Farmer (SIS No. 5 DT), and LSU’s Bradyn Swinson (SIS No. 14 ED), who we had graded at 6.4 or 6.5. While Kyle Williams (SIS No. 13 WR) has some upside, we felt he’s a No. 4 receiver and they took him early in Round 3. Their final four selections weren’t included on our site and included two special teamers.

    The top 2 players on our board that the Broncos took were Texas’ Jahdae Barron (SIS No. 3 CB, No. 36 Overall) and Illinois’ Pat Bryant (SIS No. 11 WR). UCF’s RJ Harvey (SIS No. 17 RB) and LSU’s Sai’vion Jones (SIS No. 19 ED) graded out as versatile backups for us. Their other selections included a top backup edge rusher, a punter, and a multi-sport developmental tight end.

    This year’s worst class goes to the 49ers. San Francisco had 11 selections, and while grading out high for us can be difficult with a lot of selections, they still had a chance to do so. Georgia’s Mykel Williams (SIS No. 8 ED, No. 34 Overall) was a solid 1st round selection, despite them having their pick of any EDGE besides Abdul Carter. Texas’ Alfred Collins (SIS No. 4 DT) and Oregon’s Jordan James (SIS No. 7 RB), both with 6.5 grades, should be strong role players. Their other eight selections graded out as 5.9 top backups or worse according to our scouts, including Nick Martin (SIS No. 6 MLB) and Upton Scout (SIS No. 16 CB) who were both selected in Round 3.

    How we did

    We always grade ourselves on how many players were drafted that we had featured on our NFL Draft website. 

    On Site/Drafted Pct
    2025 241-of-257 94%
    2024 241-of-257 94%
    2023 238-of-259 92%
    2022 226-of-262 86%
    2021 218-of-259 84%
    2020 199-of-255 78%
    2019 174-of-254 69%

    When taking out specialists, which we currently don’t write up, there were only 12 players drafted who weren’t on the site and only 5 of which we didn’t formally watch. That’s over 98% of the NFL Draft covered! Plus, many players we had on the site who didn’t get drafted have already signed free agent deals with teams.

    Key Facts

    * With only 16 players drafted this year who weren’t featured on the site, many teams added a lot of talent in this year’s draft. Only four teams drafted more than one player who wasn’t featured on the site: the Patriots (4), Bears (2), Packers (2), and Broncos (2), though New England and Denver selected special teamers, who we don’t feature.

    * All four teams in the NFC South ranked in our top 14 this year, further suggesting that it can be any team’s division this year and moving forward.

    * The Panthers still have the best average SIS Draft Class rank and grade average over our seven seasons doing this. While it certainly hasn’t translated to wins, maybe this class will get them back on track in an open division. The Titans, Lions, Bengals, and Falcons round out the top 5 draft class ranks. 

    The Colts continue to bring up the rear. Their No. 11 ranking in 2023 is the only time they’ve ever ranked better than this year’s No. 24, so it may be a while before they climb up the rankings and the standings.

    * For the first time ever, our entire Top 100 Big Board was selected during the draft. Our top 5 UDFAs were Cobee Bryant (SIS No. 12 CB, No. 101 Overall), Seth McLaughlin (SIS No. 3 OC, No. 103 Overall), Xavier Restrepo (SIS No. 12 WR, No. 105 Overall), Zy Alexander (SIS No. 15 CB, No. 111 Overall), and Logan Brown (SIS No. 11 OT, No. 114 Overall). Restrepo has reportedly signed a UDFA deal with the Titans, pairing him up with his former QB in Cam Ward. The top UDFA on our board the past two seasons (Ivan Pace Jr. in 2023 and Leonard Taylor III in 2024) made our All-Rookie Team, so that could bode well for Bryant this year.

    How the NFL Draft Site Compared to the Draft

    Let’s take a look at how the website stacks up to the NFL’s thinking of where players were selected. 

    On offense, the first player drafted at every position except TE was the No. 1 player on our board. Colston Loveland was the first TE off the board, but was our No. 2 ranked TE.

    On defense, the top player at each position matched the first player drafted for all except MLB. Demetrius Knight Jr. was the first MLB taken, while he was our No. 2 player at the position.

    Wide receiver and offensive tackle were the only two positions in which the top 5 drafted matched our top 5 of the position in some order. Every other position with the exception of NT, ED, MLB, WLB, and CB had only one player off, while those just mentioned each had two.

    Overdrafted?

    Only two players graded below a 6.6 were drafted in Round 1. Jaxson Dart (SIS No. 4 QB, No. 90 Overall) by the Giants at No. 25 and Maxwell Hairston (SIS No. 9 CB, No. 94 Overall) by the Bills at No. 30 were both given a 6.4 grade by our scouts.

    Only two non-Top 100 players were drafted in Round 2: Louisville’s Tyler Shough (SIS No. 5 QB) and the aforementioned RJ Harvey. Shough has a great shot to start in New Orleans and just missed our Top 100 while we feel Harvey is a three-down backup.

    Two players graded at 5.8 were selected by the end of Round 3. Minnesota’s Justin Walley (SIS No. 25 CB) by the Colts and USC’s Jaylin Smith (SIS No. 27) by the Texans. Both were near the top of our 5.8 CBs, but that was a bit rich based on who we had graded higher.

    The first eligible player (non-specialist) taken who we did not give a strong enough grade to reach the threshold we set for the website was Maryland LB Ruben Hyppolite II, drafted by the Bears in the 4th round, No. 132 overall. There were only four other players drafted that we didn’t get a formal look at. Those were Tommy Mellott, Marcus Bryant, Junior Bergen, and Kobee Minor.

    Underdrafted?

    The only 6.7 or better player not drafted in the top three rounds was Shedeur Sanders (SIS No. 2 QB, No. 32 Overall), and he went No. 144 to Cleveland.

    Kyle Kennard (SIS No. 9 ED, No. 43 Overall) was the only 6.6 not drafted by day 3, and he was selected No. 125 by the Chargers.

    All of our 6.5 or better players were drafted by the end of Round 5, so there wasn’t much top-end talent left for picking in the final rounds of the draft this year.

    Conclusion

    Every year the SIS scouting department looks to make improvements, and this year was no different. With the SIS Football Operation growing the way it is and us assisting some other departments for much of the draft process this year, our time scouting was even more limited than normal. However, we got a huge help from some of our Data scouts and Live Data scouts in January and February to knock out many of the final first looks we needed to get on players.

    Our six-man scouting team, consisting of Nathan Cooper, Jordan Edwards, Jeff Dean, Ben Hrkach, Chad Tedder, and Jeremy Percy, with the help of the rest of our full-time football operations staff, put in the hard work to finalize over 625 reports, of which 389 were featured on our NFL Draft site, plus get looks at another 60+ players to see if they were worthy of being written up.

    Having nearly the same amount of players on the site this year compared to last year, seeing the same amount of players drafted who were featured on the site is encouraging. While the number of players we didn’t get looks on grew from 2 to 5, we still consider this year a success. As we noted, our Top-100 evaluations were a big success with 82 of our top 100 drafted in the first 100 picks, a 10-point improvement from our previous best from last year. Plus, it was great to see all of our Top 100 players off the board by the end of Round 5.

    We want to thank the hard work our engineering, R&D, and product teams put in this year to get our own internal draft site back up and running and looking better than ever! We’re excited to continue to grow it each year and make it the best one out there.

    Please continue to check out our NFL Draft website as the offseason continues. If you’d like to be involved in our scouting and charting processes next year, consider applying to our Football Data Scout position. We’re taking applications and interviewing for next year’s class now.

  • The One Key To Winning Super Bowl LVIII for the Chiefs and 49ers

    The One Key To Winning Super Bowl LVIII for the Chiefs and 49ers

    Let’s get right to the point: What’s the most important thing for each team going into Super Bowl LVIII?

    Chiefs: Catch the ball!

    As a preface, let’s talk about Brock Purdy a bit (and this is Chiefs-related).

    Perhaps the biggest reason the 49ers are in this game is that Brock Purdy delivered four interceptable passes that the Lions got their hands (or faces) on, but they only converted one into a turnover. 

    Purdy has been a revelation for the 49ers, but he has lived a charmed life, for sure. Ignoring the embarrassment of riches available to him at the skill positions, he has delivered quite a few turnover-worthy throws that have fallen for (relatively) harmless incompletions.

    Of the top 10 quarterbacks in EPA per pass attempt this year (minimum 300 attempts including playoffs), he’s the only one to have more than 4 percent interceptable throws—and he’s at 5 percent. Purdy has also been intercepted less than half those times, which puts him among the more fortunate passers in this regard. 

    Let’s compare with a noted gunslinger, Josh Allen.

    Turnover-worthy throws in 2023

    Turnover Worthy % Intercepted Dropped
    Brock Purdy 5.1% 12 14
    Josh Allen 3.2% 18 3

    Our own Bryce Rossler has driven this home on our podcast multiple times over the last month: as a defense facing the 49ers, Brock Purdy is going to throw you the ball. You just need to catch it.

    Unsurprisingly, the hands thing matters for the offense as well. The Lions pass catchers dropped multiple late-down attempts themselves, not wanting their defense to have all the fun. 

    The Chiefs are as likely as any team to have hands issues. Only the Browns dropped more passes during the regular season, and Chiefs pass catchers were in the bottom ten in On-Target Catch Rate, wasting some good throws by Patrick Mahomes. The group has been better overall as the season has gone on, but they still have dropped multiple passes in four of the last seven games, and they don’t have as much margin for error as an offense as they did a few years ago. 

    49ers: Run with your advantage in the run game

    If the Lions showed the blueprint for how not to beat the 49ers, the Ravens might have shown how not to beat the Chiefs. 

    Kansas City was in the bottom group of teams in both EPA and Success Rate allowed against the run through 20 weeks, and despite having a 50% success rate on eight designed runs in the first half, Baltimore called just 3 in the second half in a winnable game.

    So here come the 49ers, who rank in the top 2 in both EPA and Success Rate on designed runs. Their reliability as an offense as a whole hinges on their ability to make hay on the ground, in part because of that note above about Brock Purdy’s penchant for pickable passes.

    EPA/Attempt (Rank) Success Rate (Rank)
    49ers offense 0.00 (1st) 46% (3rd)
    Chiefs defense -0.03 (29th) 42% (26th)

    They have the most consistent running back in the league in Christian McCaffrey, who had some workload concerns in Carolina but combined top-of-the-league efficiency with top-of-the-league volume in his first full year in San Francisco.

    If this team gets away from the run in this spot, something has gone horribly wrong.

    And if we like building narratives about establishing the run and using play action alongside it, the Chiefs offer a real opportunity. They saw as much play action on defense as anyone and ranked in the middle of the pack in EPA per play allowed, while they ranked as the best defense in the NFL on other pass attempts. 

    San Francisco (somewhat surprisingly) doesn’t rely on play fakes much, but whether the 49ers actually hand it off or not it makes sense for them to show run quite a bit in this matchup.

  • The NFL’s Best Pass-Catching Groups By Total Points

    The NFL’s Best Pass-Catching Groups By Total Points

    In the ever-evolving landscape of the NFL, the importance of a dynamic and potent receiver corps cannot be overstated. As teams strive for offensive excellence, pass catchers – whether they be wide receivers, tight ends or running backs – play a pivotal role in creating explosive plays, stretching defenses, and ultimately putting points on the board. 

    Who have been the top receiving groups?

    To delve into the comparison, we’ll assess each team’s pass catchers based on a set of criteria: Total Points, Boom%, and depth, with an eye on how these factors contribute to the overall success of the team.

    Total Points Rank Team Total Points Boom%
    1 49ers 117 33%
    2 Seahawks 85 23%
    T3 Lions 74 27%
    T3 Texans 74 29%
    5 Chiefs 71 24%
    6 Titans 69 25%
    7 Dolphins 68 28%
    8 Buccaneers 67 26%
    9 Bears 63 22%
    10 Ravens 61 25%
    11 Cowboys 61 24%

    Here’s our rundown of the Top 5.

    1. San Francisco 49ers

    The 49ers boast a wide receiver corps led by the dynamic trio of Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffery, and Brandon Aiyuk. Their creative play caller and efficient quarterback reveal a group that consistently challenges defenses, earning them the top spot. They’re the runaway leaders in Total Points.

    Future Outlook: So long as the injuries don’t pile up and the offense can keep clicking on all cylinders the 49ers are all but certainly the best corps in the playoff picture. 

    2. Seattle Seahawks

    The Seahawks corps is led by the strong and physical trio of DK Metcalf, consistent veteran Tyler Lockett, and the young and rising Jaxon Smith-Nijigba. Factor in a confident quarterback in Drew Lock the Seahawks find themselves No. 2 on this list. 

    Future Outlook: The Seahawks have a good starting WR corps. However, some of their woes might come from the lack of consistent production from Lockett or Smith-Nijigba. So long as those two can contribute at a decent clip they are a force to be reckoned with.

    T3. Detroit Lions

    Jared Goff’s return to his old self has boosted the effectiveness of his young receivers. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam Laporta make up about two-thirds of the Total Points receiving contribution.  

    Future Outlook: A tip of the hat should be awarded to GM Brad Holmes. He came in and revitalized the WR corps, drafting St. Brown and snagging a handful of other significant WR pieces. Aside from the possible age of Goff in the distance, the Lions wide receivers should be one of the best in the playoffs this year and to come.  

    T3. Houston Texans

    CJ Stroud and the Texans have done a great job of spreading the ball around their young wide receiver corp. Their up-and-coming stud receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell have carried the team’s Total Points significantly. 

    Future Outlook: The Texans have a bright future with a young and talented quarterback and receiving group they will have time to develop together for the future and have a chance to make noise in the playoffs if Dell and Stroud come back healthy.

    5, Kansas City Chiefs

    The Chiefs have accrued significant contributions from Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice. Andy Reid’s adaptability and implementation of getting Rice in space has created another weapon for Mahomes placing them at No. 5. 

    Future Outlook: Although the Chiefs sit at No. 5 on this list they will need to look to bolster their WR group this offseason. The continuous growth of Rice will help a ton coupled with the consistent production from Kelce. However, they are definitely lacking depth. 

    —

    And here are 5 other playoff contenders’ whose receiving groups I like a lot.

    7. Miami Dolphins 

    Though they didn’t crack the Top 5, the Dolphins still pose great challenges for opposing defenses. With a mastermind offensive coach, one of the fastest players in the NFL in Tyreek Hill, and young and talented Jaylen Waddle, they have the tools to create damage in a hurry against defenses. 

    Future Outlook: Barring any significant injuries the Dolphins wide receivers should easily be able to compete at the top and be the best in the playoffs.

    8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

    The Buccaneer’s strong WR corps stems from years of experience and a couple of All-Pro-caliber players. Chris Godwin leads the team with 28 Total Points (12th in the NFL) and very closely behind is Mike Evans with 26 (16th). Tampa Bay’s pass-catchers lead the NFL in Points Earned on intermediate length passes (110-19 yards), with Godwin ranking 2nd individually.

    Future Outlook: Aside from age becoming a factor for Evans and Godwin, right now they are still producing at an elite level. But if Mayfield and company can find a way to keep spreading the ball out they should be able to compete.

    11. Dallas Cowboys 

    Dak Prescott’s elite connection with Total Points leader CeeDee Lamb makes up more than half of their Total Points production as a team. The importance for the Cowboys is figuring out ways of getting others involved to climb this list and to be successful for a deep playoff run. 

    Future Outlook: The Cowboys have a tall task ahead of them going into the playoffs. All it takes is for a defense to minimize Lamb and their gameplan is in need of significant adjustments. McCarthy needs to find and implement ways for more people to be involved for them to have a deep run in the playoffs.

    13. Los Angeles Rams

    The Rams have a nice emerging wide receiver corps that was in the Top 10 a week ago. Puka Nacua’s development into a reliable target and the veteran presence of Cooper Kupp provide Matthew Stafford with formidable options. The Rams’ ability to integrate new and established talents secures their place among the league’s top wide receiver groups.

    Future Outlook: The Rams have the smart offensive mind, the smart quarterback, and the consistent weapons to make a splash in the playoffs. Some of Nacua’s inexperience might hurt him now but will prove significant in his development as the sole No. 1 when Cooper Kupp retires or moves on. 

    14. Green Bay Packers 

    The Packers have the youngest active WR corps in the NFL which caused some growing pains in the beginning of the season. However, as of late they have produced the most Total Points since Week 10 thanks to the heavy contributions of Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and Tucker Kraft. Their consistent development together with Love can pose great success in the future. 

    Future Outlook: The Packers just like the Texans have a bright future ahead of them. They appear to have their franchise quarterbacks (again…) and plenty of weapons around him that can grow with him. If they sneak into the playoffs they should pose a decent headache for opposing defenses. 

    The top receiving corps in the NFL showcase the league’s diverse talent and strategic prowess. From established stars to emerging talents, each team brings a unique dynamic to the field. As we continue to witness the evolution of offensive strategies and individual performances, dynamic pass catchers remain a cornerstone of NFL success.

  • Reiterating The Statistical Case Against Brock Purdy for MVP

    Reiterating The Statistical Case Against Brock Purdy for MVP

    Photo: David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire

    As of this moment, Brock Purdy has the best odds to win MVP at -200. Mr. Irrelevant has had a meteoric rise to being Shanahan’s second MVP-caliber quarterback this decade, and is now the preferred candidate among 49ers fans, aging sportswriters, and Disney adults. And as fun as that narrative arc may be, it should be met with some skepticism (as we pointed out last week). Let’s go even deeper in our analysis today.

    Americans love a good sports underdog story – which is really just a toxic masculinity fairytale, if you think about it – but hate participation trophies, and MVP awards are not participation trophies. They’re given to outstanding players with impressive production who considerably elevate their team, and although Purdy has outplayed his draft slot, he does not fit that bill. But, any good-faith attempt to reconcile his production with his individual skill is met with circular references back to his stats, so let’s dig into those.

    His dropbacks have indeed been very efficient from an EPA perspective, let’s just get that out of the way. A positive play rate of 55% is comfortably first in the league, and, if the season ended today, 0.26 EPA/dropback would be the second-best season in the SIS era behind only 2016 Matt Ryan, which is very interesting considering who called plays for them. He would even rank first in EPA/dropback and yards/attempt this year if you took out his throws past the line of scrimmage, as originally pointed out by Steven Ruiz of The Ringer.

    But, these numbers belong to the 49ers passing offense as a whole, and not just Purdy. There are a lot of good players on that unit. Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey, and Deebo Samuel are All-Pros, and Brandon Aiyuk – who is currently 2nd in first down percentage, 2nd in yards/route run and 3rd in Total Points/route behind only Tyreek Hill and Samuel – should join them come awards season. Furthermore, they have a pretty good young guard tandem in Aaron Banks and Spencer Burford; Kyle Juszcyk is as valuable as fullbacks can possibly be in the modern NFL; and, to top it all off, they have arguably the best offensive coach in the league in Kyle Shanahan.

    The 49ers do not need, and have never needed, Purdy to be a Top 10 quarterback, and he isn’t. They just need him to not screw things up, and he hasn’t.

    There’s a lot of mythmaking surrounding Purdy’s game, but it is fair to say that he’s accurate. He’s 80th percentile in xOnTgt +/- among qualifying quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts, which is pretty good. But, all this fluff about how he’s such a good processor and manages the game so well is just flat-out embellishment.

    His turnover-worthy throw rate (3.5%) is pretty bad – 26th percentile – and he doesn’t get the ball out particularly quickly, either. His expected snap to throw +/- (xSTT+/-), which approximates how quickly the quarterback should throw the ball based on his drop (among other factors), is 47th percentile. It’s not horrible, but it’s also not great.

    The fairest comparison here might be another Shanahan-adjacent quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa, who ranks third in xSTT+/- at a full two-tenths of a second faster than Purdy. In fact, you could make the case that Tua predetermines throws and shoots first and asks questions later, but even then, his turnover-worthy throw rate (3%) is 47th percentile – a bit better than Purdy’s.

    However, you don’t need to be an elite processor when you get to make so many gimme throws. Purdy’s attempts have been contested at the second-lowest rate in the league this year at 22%. And, if you’re wondering how that might affect his EPA numbers: contested throws are a terrible value proposition.

    The average EPA on such throws this season has been -0.38. Purdy, meanwhile, is averaging -0.09 EPA on those throws. So, not only does he get to make more easy throws, he’s losing about 25% of the value most quarterbacks do on the difficult throws he does make. That seems very fortunate!

    Some of that is probably just pure luck, but the 49ers receivers deserve a lot of credit in this regard. They rank 7th in contested catch percentage (39%) and 1st in both average yards after catch (6.9) and yards after contact (2.2). In fact, the difference between San Francisco and the next-best receiving corps in average yards after contact, is as big as the difference between the 2nd and 28th ranked teams. And if the season ended today, their average yards after catch would be the 3rd-best we’ve ever recorded, just behind the 2018 Chiefs and the 2018 49ers, and just ahead of the 2021, 2022, and 2019 49ers.

    Which brings us to the next point; a common rebuttal to the notion that Purdy is largely a beneficiary of an excellent playcaller and a star-studded supporting cast, is that Jimmy Garoppolo didn’t perform at this level. Interestingly enough, though, Jimmy G was actually never good.

    Among 49 quarterbacks with at least 500 attempts from 2020-2022, Garoppolo ranked 38th in turnover-worthy throw rate (4%), and 31st in On-Target Rate Over Expectation (xOnTgt +/-). He was also 30th in Passing Total Points/play while getting hit.

    Purdy is tougher and more willing to stand in against the rush, ranking 6th in passing Total Points/play while getting hit this season. He’s also more accurate, ranking 6th in xOnTgt +/-, and those are the big distinctions between the two. The difference we’re seeing is the difference between a warm body and Tom Brady’s sleep paralysis demon. That’s it.

    We could go on and on about splits. EPA/play on third downs is extremely volatile – with Patrick Mahomes being the only player who’s proven the ability to sustain high performance year-to-year – and Purdy’s 0.30 EPA/play on 3rd down is 12th out of 294 quarterbacks with at least 50 3rd-down attempts since 2016, just behind 2018 Nick Foles. His EPA/play on play action is the highest in the league since 2016 and 5.5 times the average EPA on play action during that span, and it’s already a cheat code.

    All this to say, Kyle Shanahan is doing parlor tricks again. Our wins above replacement (WAR) has Purdy 5th – just behind Tua Tagovailoa – at 2.7, and even that might be generous. He’s a decent player capable of functioning within an extremely efficient ecosystem, but that’s not what this award is about. It’s about recognizing players who stand out from all their peers – not just stand out from Jimmy Garoppolo.

  • Should Brock Purdy be NFL MVP? He’s Good But Not That Good

    Should Brock Purdy be NFL MVP? He’s Good But Not That Good

    It was unclear what the 49ers were going to do with Trey Lance prior to the season start, but they gave Brock Purdy a vote of confidence when they traded the former No. 3 overall pick to the Dallas Cowboys back in August.

    Fast forward to now, this turned out to be the right decision for the 49ers. Purdy has put up some impressive numbers and the 49ers have one of the best records in the NFL. The soon-to-be 24-year-old has put himself on the map, to say the least.

    In fact, he’s the betting favorite to win the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award. We still have a long way to go before the winner is announced, but it’s currently Purdy’s to lose.

    The real question is, would he deserve this honor? He’s been playing well enough to at least be in the MVP conversation, but are we sure that he is worthy enough to win and not some industry plant by the oddsmakers?

    As discussed in the latest episode of the Off the Charts Football Podcast, you can make the argument that he’s not even the most valuable player on his own team. It would be a disservice to give the award to Purdy when players like Trent Williams and Christian McCaffrey deserve recognition as well.

    Not only that, but Kyle Shanahan is one of the best offensive minds in the league. His play designs are so good that all Purdy pretty much has to do is not screw it up. When the play doesn’t go as designed, it’s typically McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, or George Kittle who picks up the slack.

    The 49ers rank as the number one team in receiving Total Points (105), our best measure of the pass catchers’ value alone, by a wide margin. That dynamic quartet deserves the most recognition for the team’s production, not Purdy exclusively.

    Also, Williams missed Weeks 7 and 8 for the 49ers and they ended up losing both games to the then 2-4 Vikings and 3-3 Bengals, respectively.

    San Francisco doesn’t have a great record solely because of its offense either. The 49ers’ defense ranks best in points allowed per game (15.8). It’s a lot easier to win in the NFL when you only have to muster up 16 points each week.

    For every statistical category that Purdy is excelling in, there appears to be one that offsets it.

    Category Purdy’s 2023 Stats NFL Rank
    Completion % 70.2% 1st
    On-Target % 75.3% 11th
    Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt 9.9 1st
    Average Throw Depth 8.0 8th (tied)
    Passing EPA 93.7 1st (by a mile)
    Passing Total Points 100.3 5th

    Purdy is the league leader in completion percentage, ANY/A, and EPA. However, he ranks a little lower when it comes to on-target percentage, average throw depth, and Total Points.

    The latter statistics separate the quarterback from his receivers more than the former group. He rates well, but maybe not MVP level.

    In the end, the MVP award would need to be renamed if Purdy were to win. If you were to take Purdy out of the 49ers’ lineup and insert a replacement-level quarterback, this team is probably still a strong contender.

    I challenge you to apply that same way of thinking to the Chiefs, Cowboys, and even the Texans (and we’ve got an article coming about Dak Prescott). Their quarterbacks do a lot more for their teams with less supporting talent. They are players you win because of, not players you simply win with.

    Purdy is having a great year, but I wouldn’t say he’s the main reason for San Francisco’s success. The MVP award should be given to a player who carries his team to victory, not one whose teammates and coach are giving him a boost.

  • Breaking Down The NFC Over-Unders, Team-By-Team

    Breaking Down The NFC Over-Unders, Team-By-Team

    Recently on the Off The Charts podcast, our panel of football experts – Matt Manocherian, Alex Vigderman, Bryce Rossler, and James Weaver – compared the Vegas over-unders on team win totals for what the Sports Info Solutions projection model came up with for each team.

    They then drafted from each conference based on how much confidence they had in each projection. In other words, they selected the Vikings No. 1 and the Eagles No. 2 because they were most confident in the Vikings being under their 8.5 win projection  and the Eagles being over their 10.5 win projection.

    The results of the Draft are below along with highlights from the dialogue and reasoning for each pick.

    If you’re interested in listening to the podcast episode, click the link at the top of the article.

    Team Over/Under (Model) Team Over/Under (Model)
    1. Vikings 8.5 (Under) 9. Panthers 7.5 (Over)
    2. Eagles 10.5 (Over) 10. 49ers 11.5 (Over)
    3. Giants 8.5 (Under) 11. Saints 9.5 (Over)
    4. Lions 9.5 (Over) 12. Rams 6.5 (Under)
    5. Bears 7.5 (Under) 13. Cardinals 4.5 (Under)
    6. Buccaneers 6.5 (Under) 14. Commanders 6.5 (Either*)
    7. Packers 7.5 (Under) 15. Cowboys 9.5 (Over**)
    8. Falcons 8.5 (Over) 16. Seahawks 8.5 (Avoid***)

    * Panel was split on which to take though model projected “Under”

    ** Computer model projected “Over” but all panelists disagreed

    *** Model projected “Under” but panelists agreed this is a tough team to project 

    Vikings – Under 8.5 wins (Model = 6 wins)  

    James: It’s pretty chalky considering what everyone thought of the Vikings at the end of last year and their line reflects the thought that their record last year was somewhat of a fluke. They were 19th in offensive EPA per play and 25th in defensive EPA per play and 11-0 in the regular season in one-score games.

    Alex: Their floor is high. Six wins might be on the lower end of their range of outcomes but we’d say that to repeat what they did last year would be within their range of outcomes, but at the very high end.

    Eagles – Over 10.5 (Model = 14.5)

    Bryce: Our model has them with a win total of 14.5, which is probably a little high but this is a really talented team. Ten and a half seems super low with all the talent on their roster. They’re one of the best teams in the NFL, especially if Jalen Hurts continues on his upward trajectory.

    Alex: The 10.5 is a reflection of a team that shows up and looks like a world beater for one season, so I buy the skepticism (of it only being 10.5). There’s a lot of theoretical uncertainty but the organization is pretty stable. It’s hard to think of ways they don’t get there with their roster.

    Giants – Under 8.5 (Model = 8)

    Alex: Our model has them just under 8 wins. It’s the same story as the Vikings. The Giants were all about running it back. Mostly, this is just a bet against Daniel Jones. He didn’t have the kind of improvement this past year that Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen had. We’re not talking about that level jump that some people might think of. They weren’t lucky the way the Vikings were lucky, but they’re due for the same level regression. 

    Lions – Over 9.5 (Model = 13)

    Matt: The model has them for 13 wins, which I’m trying to wrap my head around, but the over under set at 9.5 and I like the over.

    Bryce: I think that’s a very risky proposition. This isn’t a situation like the 49ers, where basically every spot on the roster is better than positional average, except quarterback. Jared Goff is probably a little bit better than a Brock Purdy, but we’ve done this song and dance before.

    Alex: I think Bryce is arguing that Jared Goff has within his range of outcomes to be good enough to lead a double-digit win team. But it might not be something that he would choose as his expectation.

    Bryce: Yeah, I also think within that range of outcomes, he could be a complete dumpster fire.

    Bears – Under 7.5 (Model = 5.5)

    Matt: Their line is 7.5. That seems unbelievably high to me. Our model has them at 5.5. That sounds more accurate. Another easy pick.

    Alex: You’re out on Justin Fields, huh?

    Matt: I didn’t say that. I’m out on his team. I’m not out on him.

    James: Did this team do anything in the offseason to get better? Yeah, they got a DJ Moore, but I don’t know defensively. This team still isn’t great. I think it’s asking a lot for a four-win bump from what they were last year. 

    Buccaneers – Under 6.5 (Model = 4.5)

    Alex: The division is not awesome, but I’m a little higher on the other teams in the NFC South. I think there’s a pretty high probability that the Bucs are the worst team in that division, and there’s enough range of outcomes for the other teams in the NFC South where a couple of them are actually kind of good that I think that’ll contribute a little bit. But it’s mostly just, like, the quarterback situation drops off a cliff and everybody else is just kind of a year older.

    Packers – Under 7.5 (Model = 5.5)

    Bryce: Rodgers is obviously gone, but he’s so far gone. As great as he was, he was so far gone last year and we have no idea what Jordan Love is.

    The defense is weird because they have some really talented players at some really key positions, like Jaire Alexander and Rashawn Gary, but there’s a lot of holes in that defense in general. (They were) an eight-win team last year with Rodgers, and things don’t be seem to be getting better there.

    James: I think this is a team where you can absolutely look alt win totals. If you think that the drop off is a lot, then you can take an under 4.5, under 5.5 at a better number. If you think Love can take off, then bet higher than 9 wins. I think the extreme outcomes for this team are the better value.

    Falcons – Over 8.5 (Model = 9.5)

    James: You have no idea what Desmond Ritter is. Defensively, though, this team’s putting some things together…. I kind of like the upside with this team, the division’s in flux, like the whole NFC is. Theme of the day.

    Matt: My concern is the defense. I think the defense is trash. I have concerns about their strength being at safety. I don’t really know how you build a defense that way. I think that they have weaknesses at corner, in pass rush, and in run defense. So it’s hard to say that I find them to be very strong in defense in any meaningful regard.

    Panthers – Over 7.5 (Model = 9.5)

    James: I like the coaching staff that the Panthers brought in with Frank Reich and Josh McCown, and Ejiro Evero is a really good get…. I think bringing him in with having guys like Brian Burns and Jaycee Horn coming back from injury, this Panthers defense – last year 20th in EPA per play on defense – it’s not great, but I think they’re certainly upside there with the new scheme that Evero brings in.

    Now obviously it’s not one of those rookie quarterback situations where you frankly just don’t know. But I think there’s a lot of good things in place that the Panthers could potentially get over this win total, especially with that division that they’re in.

    Alex: I wish I liked their offense better. I think trading out DJ Moore for Adam Thielen is not inspiring a lot of confidence.

    Bryce: I absolutely hate it. I’m not a believer in Bryce Young at all.

    49ers – Over 11.5 (Model = 12)

    Bryce: I don’t like betting on bad and or inconsistent quarterbacks, and the 49ers, I think, don’t even have their quarterback situation figured out this year, but that team is so talented. The defense is really, really good. Their offensive skill positions are really good.

    They won 13 games last year, Brock Purdy starting in five of them. I’m not sure how much the quarterback situation even matters at this point. With Kyle Shanahan, plus the division is not very good. I’ll take it over 11.5, but I don’t think it’s a slam dunk.

    Saints – Over 9.5 (Model = 10.5)

    Alex: Again, the NFC South has a lot of uncertainty…. I feel probably the best about them in the division.

    This is another team where I don’t expect them to win 12 games, but I think that they have decent quarterback play and pretty good skill position players.

    I’m responsible for Total Points, and Total Points loves Derek Carr. Ipso facto, I love Derek Carr. Also, “love” is a very strong word.

    Rams – Under 6.5 (Model = 4.5)

    Matt: Aaron Donald represents one of the only bright spots remaining on their defense. I look at the Sonar Depth Chart that we have for them at The 33rd Team, and it’s really trash all around. The offensive line was garbage last year. I think the offensive line promises to be garbage again.

    They tried to trade Stafford because he’s a shell of himself and is no longer a healthy, functioning NFL quarterback. So, for a lot of reasons I want the under on the Rams.

    Bryce: I’m going to get you a shirt that says, “I am not scared of Aaron Donald.”

    Cardinals – Under 4.5 (Model = 4)

    Matt: Number one, pull up their depth chart. It is really, really ugly looking at a lot of positions. But even more so than that, I’m worried about this franchise.

    I think this franchise has already reached rock bottom and they’re in the phase over the next year where they can’t even begin to climb out of rock bottom. I think that the sort of malice that’s gone on in this franchise is on that level.

    Unlike the way that I like the over on the Texans wins because they don’t have to tank, I think this team is organizationally tanking this year. 

    Commanders – Under 6.5, Over 6.5 (Model = 5)

    Alex (under): The Commanders have a couple of guys on both sides of the ball. And their quarterback situation is not great. And the Commanders are in that same category as the Panthers. It’s just that they have less upside, in my opinion.

    I tend to lean towards whatever the quarterback situation is and kind of trust that. And so that’s why I’m on the low end for the Commanders.

    Bryce: I would feel a bit worse about taking the Commanders under if I had any confidence that they would name Jacoby Brissett the starter, because I think Brissett is actually somewhat capable, whereas I think Sam Howell will be a dumpster fire.

    James (over): I want to call out all of you Sam Howell haters, because I like the Commanders over this year. That defense last year was still 5th in EPA per play. And if they can do something with Taylor Heinicke the last three years and have a minimum 7 wins from each season, I like this team.

    I like the weapons that they have. Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, both a solid 1-2 punch at receiver.

    Brian Robinson came into his own at the end of last year, as well. It’s a new day in Washington. It’s a new day, and I think they break through the 6.5 wins this year.

     Cowboys – Over 9.5 (Model = 8)

    Bryce: I am an outspoken believer in Dak Prescott. I think they have strengths elsewhere on the roster. I really like CeeDee Lamb. The offensive line is not as dominant as they were during the first couple of years of Dak’s career, but they’re still pretty good. I think they have some difference-makers on defense.

    Matt: I had a really hard time with them because that over/under was set at 9.5. And the model came out at just eight wins for them. So this was one of those situations where I was kind of a ‘stay away.’

    James: When our model was run, this win total was definitely the one that I disagreed with the most. I was really surprised that it came out that low on the Cowboys. 

    Seahawks – No bet at 8.5 (Model = 7)

    James: I’d kind of lean towards their over, mostly because of the fact that the NFC is garbage, and in terms of a staple, this is probably as close as it gets to a fringe, playoff, wildcard level team.

    In the NFC West, we’re pretty low on the Rams and the Cardinals. The 49ers have some question marks at quarterback. For the Seahawks, if somehow Geno Smith can turn into a Top 10 quarterback again, then they certainly have the weapons there. I think I can see ‘Hawks going over this win total.

    Matt: Playing the Rams a couple of times, playing the Cardinals a couple of times, if Geno can be as good as he was last year, certainly you would think that they hit it.

  • 5 Observations About Brock Purdy

    5 Observations About Brock Purdy

    I love a good underdog story as much as anything in sports, so I’m fully into the idea of a player who was picked last in the most recent NFL Draft being one win away from being a starting quarterback in the Super Bowl.

    That got me to looking up stats about Brock Purdy and the 49ers matchup with the Eagles on Sunday. Here are five things I found.

    1) Brock Purdy has been really good

    Purdy made his first appearance in this eight-game run in Week 13 against the Dolphins. Since then (and including postseason), he’s No. 2 in Passing Points Earned Per Play, trailing only Jared Goff of the Lions. He remains No. 2 if we look at Points Above Average Per Play on all plays (not just passes).

    He’s been worthy of the recognition.

    2)Intermediate throws

    What’s been the key to Purdy’s success?

    One important number is how he’s fared on intermediate passes, those thrown 10-to-19 yards downfield.

    He’s 33-of-46 for 648 yards on those passes since Week 13. The 72% completion percentage on those throws is the best in the NFL in that span. He went 5-of-6 for 95 yards on them against the Cowboys in the Divisional Round. Three of those throws helped set up short field goals for Robbie Gould. The other turned into a 30-yard completion to George Kittle that set up Christian McCaffrey’s go-ahead touchdown run in the fourth quarter.

    3)An Eagles edge

    A look at our Trenches tool on The 33rd Team’s website shows a distinct advantage for the Eagles pass rush against the 49ers pass blockers.

    Philadelphia ranks No. 1 in Pass Rush Points Saved on a per-play basis this season. Their opponents have had the highest blown block rate on pass attempts of any team in the league.

    The 49ers offensive line ranks 26th in Pass Block Points Earned Per Play. In other words, this is a highly unfavorable matchup for them.

    For his part, Purdy ranks 7th in Passing Points Earned Per Play when under pressure since Week 13 among the 30 quarterbacks with the most attempts.

    4)Berry, Berry Good

    Purdy is also going to have to deal with the best-playing cornerback he’s seen in his run of success in James Bradberry.

    Bradberry ranked tied for 4th in Total Points among defensive backs this season (though some might argue he’s not even the best corner on his team).

    Opponents completed 26-of-73 passes against Bradberry this season. The 36% completion percentage against was the lowest in the NFL.

    Daniel Jones didn’t have any luck. He was 0-for-2 with an interception when throwing at Bradberry.

    5) Watch what happens from in close

    Against the Cardinals and Seahawks in Week 18 and the Wild Card Round, the 49ers made it work at a high level of effectiveness once they got inside the red zone.

    Purdy was 8-of-11 for 4 touchdowns in the red zone and 4-of-5 from the 10 or closer. He did this through short passes. All four of the touchdowns came on goal-to-go from the 7-yard line or closer.

    Purdy was 4-of-8 on passes from the 10 or closer from Weeks 13 to 17 and 1-of-2 for 2 yards against the Cowboys.

    The Eagles are tough to pass against inside the 10. Their defense ranks 5th in positive percentage allowed on passes (25%) but last in positive percentage allowed on runs (57%) (for those unfamiliar, positive percentage is the percentage of positive plays allowed that the opposing offense accrues).

  • How the SIS Football Win Probability Model Works

    How the SIS Football Win Probability Model Works

    SIS’s win probability model is primarily a neural network trained on the last four years of NFL games to predict the results of a game from any game state.

    For a given matchup, it uses a measure of opponent-adjusted team strength that relies on recent Expected Points Added performance.

    Each team’s last eight weeks both offensively and defensively are evaluated against their opponents’ performance in other games to get a more stable measure of the recent quality of each team.

    The difference between these overall team ratings is used to estimate a matchup-specific win probability.

    This is different than the full SIS pre-game expected score model, which is not available publicly and incorporates more specific factors, but this is a good representation of how we expect these teams to perform when matched up.

    For the AFC Championship Game, we have the Chiefs with a 71.7% chance to beat the Bengals.

    For the NFC, we have the Rams with a 54.9% chance to beat the 49ers.

  • What to Watch For on NFL Championship Sunday

    What to Watch For on NFL Championship Sunday

    SIS VP of Football (and former NFL scout) Matt Manocherian took the time to answer some matchup-specific and scheme-specific questions on the AFC and NFC Championship Games.

    We’ve given you two options — you can read some of Matt’s thoughts below, or you can listen to this week’s Off The Charts podcast linked above.

    If you choose to read, here’s his analysis:

    Bengals-Chiefs

    What from the first Bengals-Chiefs matchup will you be paying close attention to in this game?

    What the Chiefs do to match up defensively.

    In that meeting a few weeks ago was mostly short dropbacks out of 11 personnel. Out of 3-WR sets, they were 90% pass, and of those passes, they used 95% short dropbacks. This is what Joe Burrow likes to do, so we’ll see if Steve Spagnuolo comes with a different strategy to get them out of it.

    The Chiefs for their part were mixing up their pre-snap looks between 1- and 2-high, but they rolled mostly into MOFO (middle of the field open) coverages. However, it was mostly when they rolled to single-high that they got punished, so I expect more 3-man rushes dropping 8 guys into zone, a look that gave Cincinnati a bit more trouble that day.

    Burrow is a QB you can win a Super Bowl with. I don’t think he’s a QB you win the Super Bowl because of just yet.

    What about what Kansas City does with motion and with its use of shotgun (both usage rates rank No. 1 in the NFL) with such high effectiveness and how the Bengals match up with that?

    We saw this in Week 17, too. The Chiefs went 81% shotgun and 66% motion in that game, and they had a positive EPA on 66% of plays with Motion.

    The Bengals have struggled all year playing zone coverage when their opponents use motion.

    They play more zone than man across the board, but it’s really been the snaps where they stayed in their zone against offensive motion. It will be interesting to see if they check to a bit more man to counter those looks.

    I’ll add that Mahomes is playing as well as anyone who has ever played. He’s the reason why the Chiefs are the Super Bowl favorite this year, next year, and in the immediate future.

    Tyrann Mathieu is hopeful of coming back from a concussion to play. How impactful can he be in this game?

    I think he’s irreplaceable.

    The Chiefs made changes up front earlier in the season, bringing in Melvin Ingram. What they couldn’t do was replace people on the back end, because what Spagnuolo does is so complicated and requires such communication. There was evidence of it when the Bills scored their last TD (with Mathieu out) on Sunday when DeAndre Baker wasn’t aligned properly against Gabriel Davis.

    Mathieu is the guy that orchestrates everything on the back end for the Chiefs. His absence was part of why they fell apart last week and he’s their best chance for the defense to keep up with this high-powered offense.

    49ers-Rams

    The 49ers beat the Rams twice during the regular season. What can be gleaned from those two games that could come into play on Sunday? 

    Tons of things that go back way before this meeting.

    Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay know each other well. I think that part of the reason why San Francisco was able to immunize Rodgers from the playoffs was because of Shanahan’s understanding of what LaFleur wants to do offensively, and I think it’s a big part of the reason why San Francisco has had the Rams’ number lately.

    That said, I think it’s more than familiarity, and it’s the matchup.  

    Okay, so let’s touch on the matchup. The 49ers use 21 personnel the most in the NFL and use motion a lot. High volume with both at a good quality of performance. How will this factor into the game?

    The Rams have shown an extreme preference in terms of both usage and efficiency in showing a light box and rolling into lots of different zone looks.

    They show mostly 2-high, but they will roll into Cover 3 variants a good chunk of the time.

    That actually feeds into what the 49ers are trying to do. Expect a lot of heavy personnel groups, motion, and zone running from the 49ers, trying to slow down and control the game. They want to make the Rams play left-handed.

    And what about the Rams offense against the 49ers D?
    The Rams use 11 personnel the most often, and they rank top 3 in usage of no-huddle, play actions, and zone runs.

    Again, I think the Rams are better offensively than the 49ers are defensively. But I think the 49ers cause a matchup problem that is difficult for the Rams to overcome.

    The 49ers give the Rams a lot of problems if they can control the game. Over the 2nd half of the season, they consistently stay in their 4-man front with a light box, rarely blitz, and dominate out of MOFO zone.

    Can the oft-maligned Cam Akers can get them out of that? I think … maybe…but Sean McVay certainly would’ve loved to have Robert Woods for this game. 

    Andrew Whitworth is coming back from injury. Trent Williams is dealing with one. How does their presence impact the game?

     By Expected Points Added, the Rams are a MUCH better passing team when Whitworth is on the field (the difference in the run game isn’t as great). The trustworthiness of knowing what he brings is key.

    With Williams, there’s a small sample of him being out, but he’s been hugely impactful. They’re much better with him on the field. When you turn on the film, he’s playing the best football of his career.

     The Chiefs, Bengals, and Rams are division winners. The 49ers were 10-7 and barely made the playoffs.

     How do we divvy up the credit for what they’ve done?

     You can credit Kyle Shanahan, (GM) John Lynch, all the people on the coaching, scouting, and analytics side who are doing the work behind the scenes.

    One thing of many that Bill Belichick has taught us is that you want to zig when others zag. There is an advantage in football to be doing things that other teams are not, because you’re prepared for what you’re doing every week. Your opponent is only preparing when they see you every now and then.

    Another advantage is that you can find players who fit your scheme because you’re not competing with everybody else for the same type of players that you need to fit into whatever the NFL scheme du jour is.

    This is a decision by the 49ers to be built this way. It’s informed a lot by Kyle’s dad, Mike Shanahan and the way he’d want to build a team – from the zone running game out. It’s been a very coherent strategy for them. They’ve taken the strategy of being a heavy personnel run team at a time when the NFL is trying to figure out how to spread things out.

    For more of Matt’s thoughts, check out this week’s Off The Charts podcast.

     

  • Assessing the relative strengths and weaknesses of NFL playoff contenders

    Assessing the relative strengths and weaknesses of NFL playoff contenders

    As we get to the end of the season, hot topics tend to run themselves into the ground. Particularly as we hone in on the teams and games that matter most and let the rest fall into the background.

    So let’s take a step back as we head into the postseason and look at what each playoff contender is doing well or poorly.

    Often when we refer to team performance we take things at a season level, or we take arbitrary slices of time (first half / second half, month-by-month, and so on). For this discussion wanted to measure how well teams have been playing recently but not entirely disregard early-season performance.

    To do that we took inspiration from our World’s No. 1 Quarterback Rankings. It uses Points Above Average, the statistical underpinning of Total Points that sets average performance at 0, and measures how good a quarterback currently is by combining multiple years of data but with recent performance weighted more heavily.

    So, in identifying which teams are doing well in which ways, we took recency-weighted Points Above Average across four dimensions:

      1) Passing game (including blocking and QB scrambles)
      2) Running game (including blocking and excluding scrambles)
      3) Pass Defense
      4) Run Defense

     

    Here’s where we stand with the biggest contenders heading into Week 18.

    AFC

    Recency-Weighted Points Above Average by Team (NFL ranks)

    Team Pass Run Pass Def Run Def Overall
    Chiefs 3 11 3 7 1
    Bills 9 2 10 22 4
    Patriots 6 4 16 16 5
    Bengals 1 23 20 25 9
    Chargers 5 15 12 31 12
    Colts 13 1 22 18 14
    Titans 20 19 9 10 16
    Raiders 12 17 29 12 19
    Steelers 26 14 6 27 21

    Chiefs

    We’ve talked about the Chiefs so much this year, and there’s not much new to say. The offense was never as bad as it appeared, and our numbers reflect that. They rank third in the NFL in passing effectiveness, and if you didn’t weight for recency they’d rank second.

    But the defense has improved a lot. Through the first half, they were bottom-five in EPA per play allowed in the passing game. They’re in the top 10 since. In the running game, Kansas City has gone from second-worst to middle of the pack. This is now a complete team that is every bit the threat we thought they’d be.

    Titans

    On the other side of things are the Titans. When was the last time we saw a shakier 1-seed? The 2006 Grossman-led Bears? If we take the sum of their recency-weighted Points Above Average, they’d rank 16th in the NFL. They’ve been dealing with injuries all year, and might get Derrick Henry back at exactly the right time. Especially so if they can get a bye.

    Whatever the situation, Tennessee’s offense is not the reason that it is in this position. The Titans rank in the bottom half of the league in both passing and rushing. But their defense has been consistently solid, and they rank in the top 10 in both pass and rush defense. If they can get a bye and find a groove with Henry back, maybe that’s enough.

    Patriots

    One team whose offense ranks better than you might think is the Patriots. Their passing game is ranked sixth despite Mac Jones’ Rookie of the Year campaign taking a hit in recent weeks. Starting with the Bills game where Jones barely threw the ball, the Pats are in the top ten in Passing EPA and Positive%. They have virtually the same boom/bust profile—the percentage of plays with +1 or -1 EPA—as the Chiefs.

    New England’s defense has been fine, but is slipping a bit. Both its pass and rush defense rank middle-of-the-pack. When people talk about complementary football, this is the sort of team you think of. The way that New England’s offense has held onto the ball, sustained drives, and shortened games has helped the defense play above their skis, particularly after divesting itself of Stephon Gilmore.

    Bills

    The Bills still lost to the Patriots in Week 13 when they barely threw the ball, but if it had been normal weather they might still have had some issues on the back end. Their recency-weighted pass defense rank is 10th, while their unweighted rank would have been 3rd. We know their secondary was excellent to start the year, and that Tre’Davious White got hurt in Week 12. But they have really only had one excellent game in terms of pass defense over the last couple months, and that started before White’s injury. Through Week 10, White, Jordan Poyer, Levi Wallace, and Taron Johnson were all in the top 25 DBs in Pass Coverage Points Saved. None of them can say that in the weeks since.

    The Bills have one of the more surprising results using this methodology. They rank second in the running game. While they don’t run a lot, they’ve been pretty effective with it. Excluding QB runs, they’re at the top of the list in Broken/Missed tackles per attempt over the second half of the season, and only a few teams have gotten stuffed less frequently.

    Bengals

    One of the big topics we might have been discussing in this space if I hadn’t already shown disdain for the notion is Joe Burrow’s MVP candidacy. The Bengals are unsurprisingly the top-ranked pass offense, 200 passing yards ahead of the next-best Chiefs over the last three games. But they rank in the 20’s in the other three dimensions, and that’s the big question for them. Can a team that’s gotten this hot sustain it, and can its one awesome dimension overcome average-surrounding context?

    If the Bengals do, it’ll likely be the result of a few key playmakers on defense. Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard each rank in the top 15 in Pass Rush Points Saved, although it’s been more from splash plays than consistent pressure, which is harder to rely on. Chidobe Awuzie has been one of the more-targeted corners in the NFL, making opponents pay because he’s been better at limiting damage than basically everyone in the top 20.

    NFC

    Recency-Weighted Points Above Average by Team (NFL ranks)

    Team Pass Run Pass Def Run Def Overall
    Buccaneers 4 6 7 11 2
    Packers 2 8 5 32 3
    Cardinals 7 22 14 3 6
    Rams 11 10 15 4 7
    Cowboys 14 24 1 15 8
    49ers 8 16 24 1 10
    Eagles 10 3 19 20 11
    Saints 23 30 2 6 15

    Packers

    Despite not topping the list above, the Packers still sit quite pretty in the NFC hierarchy. They have had pretty consistent ranks throughout the year. This is a great example of what is important in the NFL, though, because they’ve been good all year while being pretty bad defending the run. They’ve had three above-average run defense games according to Total Points. Maybe it’s good news that they were all in the second half of the year? But it hasn’t mattered much.

    Buccaneers

    The Buccaneers are certainly not feeling like the second-best team in the NFL, as these numbers suggest. It remains to be seen what they will look like with the knowledge that Antonio Brown won’t be returning, but let’s not forget that this team had elite underlying metrics last year before they won it all, and they were doing it again this year before a bit of a swoon. But there is a swoon. All of their rankings above are worse than they would be if we didn’t weigh for recent performance.

    Cardinals

    Whether it’s a direct consequence or not, the Cardinals losing DeAndre Hopkins coincides with a drop-off in offensive effectiveness. Their pass offense looks 2 points worse per game when you weigh recent games more heavily.

    And it’s a similar story on the defensive side (probably without Hopkins as an explanation). Just using first half / second half splits, Arizona is allowing two-tenths of an expected point per play more than it was in the first eight weeks. So 8 points per game if you assume 40 plays per game. In the first half of the year, they were causing more “Bust” plays than “Boom” plays. Only the Bills could have claimed that. Not so much anymore.

    Rams

    The Rams haven’t been quite as explosive in the pass game of late. They had a 32% Boom Rate (plays with an EPA greater than 1) through the first half of the year, but just 20% since. More sacks, more picks, not the “more” you’re looking for. On the whole, with recency-weighting they now sit basically a point per game above average in each of passing, rushing, pass defense, and run defense. They are a bit of a counter to the teams that don’t mind too much being deficient in one dimension (think the Packers).

    Cowboys

    We expected more from the Cowboys pass offense, for sure. It’s not particularly hot right now. But the pass defense is where they’ve looked a lot better. Obviously Trevon Diggs had an exciting start to the year, but he was masking some pretty questionable results on the rest of his snaps. That’s even more extreme now, with four picks but 11 yards per target in the second half of the year. Anthony Brown and Jourdan Lewis have been a lot more productive overall, and Micah Parsons has started to show his ability to do it all, allowing 6 yards on 137 coverage snaps in the second half of the year.

    49ers

    In theory, the 49ers are a run-and-stop-the-run team. And they are a top run defense. But in practice, their passing game has actually been a bit better than their running game. They’ve obviously had a rotating cast of characters in the backfield, so we can give them a bit of a pass there. But the passing game has been much more explosive than you’d expect if you knew Jimmy G had started most of the year. They trail only the Rams in Boom% through the air.

    Eagles

    Another team whose passing rank might surprise you is the Eagles. In terms of Points Above Average per game, they are about the same passing and rushing. But the same amount of value in terms of points ranks you 10th in passing and 3rd in rushing. They are among the best ten teams in limiting points and yards, but more middle-of-the-road by EPA-based metrics. Remember their last five games have come against both New York teams and Washington. Darius Slay had a nice resurgent season going, but he’s produced literally zero Points Saved each of the last four weeks. With a relatively meaningless game against Dallas this week we still might not see them tested until next week.