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  • SIS NFL Preview Week 9

    At Sports Info Solutions, our Video Scouts chart FBS and NFL football games 40 hours a week. They chart every play of every game in extraordinary detail, becoming experts in team’s tendencies and concepts. So, who better to ask about what to watch for in this weeks upcoming NFL games? This season we will be providing weekly NFL previews of key matchups with insight straight from our Video Scouts and stats from the SIS DataHub Pro.

    Washington Redskins @ Buffalo Bills – 11/3 1:00 PM ET

    Kendall Mirsky, SIS Football Video Scout:

    After two weeks in a row that the defense was brought down to earth, there is potential for the same problem to affect the Bills again this week. The Bills have had trouble stopping runs between the ‘B’ gaps this season after the injury to DT Harrison Phillips. With the Redskins coming up, it is possible that the Bills will face a similar defensive task against Adrian Peterson and the Redskins’ hefty dose of Duo run designs. Especially after the departure of Jay Gruden, the Redskins have opted to put an emphasis on the running game under Interim Coach Bill Callahan.

    Adrian Peterson Has Been Elite on Duo Runs This Season

    Carries (NFL Rank)Yards / Carry (NFL Rank)
    21 (2nd)4.3 (4th)

     

    Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Chargers – 11/3 4:25 PM ET

    Bruce Schroeder, SIS Football Video Scout:

    The Chargers are coming off their biggest win of the season against the Bears, but fired their offensive coordinator the next day. The Chargers could be expected to come out fast against the Packers, as this move generally gives teams a boost. That being said it shouldn’t take long for the Packers to regain their step with the infamous home-field disadvantage of the Chargers stadium. With crowd attendance most likely in their favor, and the expected return of WR Davante Adams, look for the Packers to progressively control the game throughout all four quarters.

    Davante Adams’ Hopeful Return Could be a Big Boost for the Packers

    PlayerTargetsReceiving Points Earned
    Davante Adams3613.3
    All Other Packers WR’s1056.8

     

    New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens – 11/3 8:20 PM ET

    Stephen Marciello, SIS Football Video Scout:

    The one knock against the Patriots stellar defense so far this year is the level of competition they have performed against. Without any games against top-tier offenses or quarterbacks, many people want to see how they will fare in a competitive game. This Sunday night against the Baltimore Ravens will be that first game, as the Patriots go on the road to face QB Lamar Jackson. Look for the Pats to try and take away the running ability of Jackson and force him to be a pocket passer. Jamie Collins will most likely be given the role of the quarterback spy in the middle of the defense. Collins’ speed and athleticism allowing him to make plays sideline to sideline could be the difference in the game by neutralize the running ability of Jackson.

    Jamie Collins’ Bounce Back 2019 Performance

    Pass Defense Points Saved (LB Rank)Run Defense Points Saved (LB Rank)Total Points Saved (LB Rank)
    30 (3)10 (4)40 (2)

     

    Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants – 11/4 8:15 PM ET

    Andrew McKeon, SIS Football Video Scout:

    With the addition of Leonard Williams, if it wasn’t obvious before, the defensive line is far and away the strength of the Giants defense. Combined with DT Dexter Lawrence, the Giants now have two athletic space eaters up front that should hopefully alleviate some pressure from the rest of the Giants’ leaky defense. This new duo faces a tough task right away though; the Dallas offensive line is one of the best in football and will require the new-look defensive line of the Giants to carry the defense if they want any chance of winning this game

    How Leonard Williams Compares to His New Giants DL Teammates

    PlayerPass Rush Points SavedRun Defense Points SavedTotal Points Saved
    Dalvin Tomlinson31114
    Leonard Williams7512
    B.J. Hill6612
    Dexter Lawrence4610

     

  • Top prop bets for Vikings-Redskins

    By Steve Schwartz

    The streaking Minnesota Vikings, coming off three wins in a row and averaging 36 ppg over that span, host Washington, who have only one win this season (Miami), and are a huge 15.5-point underdog in this one. Weather will not be a factor in the domed U.S. Bank Stadium.

    Here’s a look at some of the top props, using SISBets.com and odds from Parx Casino. You can get 10 free queries on prop percentages by registering.

    We are 12-8 in our picks so far after going 4-0 last week.

    1) Jeremy Sprinkle, under 2.5 receptions, -124.

    Sprinkle is getting playing time because the oft-injured Jordan Reed is hurt again and Vernon Davis is dealing with a concussion and questionable for Week 8. Sprinkle has yet to catch more than two passes in any game this season and the team has a total of 21 receptions from all its tight ends combined or three per game. The Redskins are a run-first offense and our statistics say he should see 2.3 targets and 1.5 receptions. The under should be -423, but it’s just -124.

    2) Stefon Diggs, over 5.5 receptions, over +100.

    Without Adam Thielen (hamstring), Diggs should see more than his normal target level and since Kirk Cousins has gotten hot over the past three games, he’s averaged 7.7 targets and 5.7 receptions. At +100 the casino has this as an even money bet, but our analysis makes Diggs a -171 favorite, with 9 targets and 6.5 catches.

    3) Kirk Cousins, over 21.5 completions, +100.

    Apparently they haven’t been paying attention to Cousins over the past four weekends. He has surprassed 21.5 completions in four consecutive games. And now he’s playing his former team, who messed around with his contract, franchising him twice when he really just wanted to leave. Karma is a b****. SIS Bets is predicting 23.8 completions. A fair market value for this prop bet should be -205, but it’s currently at +100.

    4) Case Keenum, score a touchdown, +2200.

    This one is a bet you only make if you are playing with “house” money. It’s a longshot, but not as long a shot as the casino would have you think. There is about a 10-percent chance according to our numbers that the Washington quarterback will run one in, but we are offered 22-1 odds. Keenum hasn’t rushed for a touchdown this season, but in 16 starts last season for Denver, he did it twice.

    Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.

    Props list

    Quarterback Touchdown Passes

    ——————————————

    Case Keenum, 1.5, over +142/under -180

    Kirk Cousins, 1.5, over -124/under +100

     

    Quarterback Interceptions

    ———————————–

    Case Keenum, 0.5, over -152/under +122

    Kirk Cousins, 0.5, over +119/under -148

     

    Quarterback Completions

    ———————————-

    Case Keenum, 19.5 completions, over -124/under +100

    Kirk Cousins, 21.5 completions, over +100/under -124

     

     

    Touchdown Scorers

    ————————–

    Washington –

    Adrian Peterson +225
    Wendell Smallwood +225
    Terry McLaurin +285
    Vernon Davis +500
    Paul Richardson +500
    Jeremy Sprinkle +500
    Trey Quinn +550
    Case Keenum +2200

     

    Minnesota –

    Dalvin Cook -225
    Stefon Diggs -121
    Olabisi Johnson +180
    Kyle Rudolph +200
    Alexander Mattison +285
    Irv Smith Jr. +325
    Laquon Treadwell +550
    Kirk Cousins +600
    Ameer Abdullah +800

     

    Total Receptions

    ———————-

    Washington –

    Paul Richardson, 2.5, over +100/under -124

    Jeremy Sprinkle, 2.5, over +100/under -124

    Trey Quinn, 3.5, over -120/under -105

    Terry McLaurin, 4.5, over +108/under -134

     

    Minnesota –

    Irv Smith Jr., 2.5, over +140/under -177

    Kyle Rudolph, 2.5, over -143/under +115

    Dalvin Cook, 3.5, over +105/under -130

    Olabisi Johnson, 3.5, over -118/under -106

    Stefon Diggs, 5.5, over +100/under -124

     

     

  • SIS NFL Preview Week 5

    At Sports Info Solutions, our Video Scouts chart FBS and NFL football games 40 hours a week. They chart every play of every game in extraordinary detail, becoming experts in team’s tendencies and concepts. So, who better to ask about what to watch for in this weeks upcoming NFL games? This season we will be providing weekly NFL previews of key matchups with insight straight from our Video Scouts and stats from the SIS DataHub Pro.

    New England Patriots @ Washington Redskins – 10/6 1:00 ET

    Stephen Marciello, SIS Football Video Scout:

    After giving up their first touchdown from scrimmage last week against the Bills, the Patriots defense will face the Redskins, who just named . LB Jamie Collins, who became an afterthought on the Cleveland Browns defense, has returned to the Patriots and become arguably the most versatile player on the roster. Collins played 100% of the defensive snaps last week, as well as over 70% of the special teams snaps. Collins already has a career high 3 interceptions, is nearing a career high with 3.5 sacks, and has scored a defensive touchdown.

    Jamie Collins’ Performance 2018 vs. 2019


    Season    		Pass Defense
    Total Points Saved    		Run Defense
    Total Points Saved    		Total Points SavedRank Among LB’s
    2018491298th
    2019187253rd

     

    Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants – 10/6 1:00 ET

    Andrew McKeon, SIS Football Video Scout:

    While it was just against the lowly Redskins, the Giants defense has some momentum to carry over into week five against the Vikings. With Kirk Cousins’ struggles along with the coming out party of Dalvin Cook this season, expect the Giants to stack the box this week and play a lot of man coverage on the outside, leaving their DBs on islands, and forcing Cousins to beat them instead.

    Dalvin Cook vs. Giants Defense on Runs Into a Stacked Box

    PlayerAttemptsYds/AttYds After Contact / Att
    Dalvin Cook346.44.1
    Vs. Giants Defense342.31.4

     

    Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans – 10/6 1:00 ET

    Kendall Mirsky, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Watch for Bills TE Dawson Knox this week with Patrick DiMarco possibly sidelined with a concussion. If DiMarco does not play, the Bills will be forced to decide if Knox has shown enough as a run blocker to be put in the backfield as a lead blocker in addition to his tight end duties. The Titans have a particularly strong secondary, so the Bills will want to keep the ball on the ground, especially if Josh Allen is not playing. If not, the Bills may have to avoid offensive play calls that require a lead blocker from the backfield. This could alter the game because of the Bills offensive consistency on the ground and inconsistencies in the passing game.

    Bills 2019 Rushing Success with and without a Lead Blocker

    Lead BlockerAttemptsEPA / Att
    No77-0.02
    Yes200.07

     

    Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers – 10/6 4:05 ET

    Will Osgood, SIS Football Video Scout:

    The Broncos have been struggling to get their pass rush going so far this season. Now with Bradley Chubb out for the season, look for Philip Rivers and the Chargers to drop back early and often, even though they have struggled some in pass protection. If the Chargers can keep Von Miller from wreaking havoc on his own, Keenan Allen should continue his electric start to the 2019 campaign.

     Keenan Allen’s 2019 Performance So Far

    PlayerTargetsYardsReceiving
    Total Points Earned    		Rank Among WR’s
    Keenan Allen4845220.62nd

     

    Cleveland Browns @ San Francisco 49ers – 10/7 8:15 ET

    Cyril Zachary Penn, SIS Football Video Scout:

    The 49ers rank ninth overall on offense by Positive% (the percentage of plays that result in a positive EPA). Yet, they’ve ran the second-fewest plays in the NFL, ahead of only the Jets. Keeping up that efficiency will be difficult on Monday night, as they square up with their toughest opponent thus far. But with two full weeks of preparation, Kyle Shanahan should have the offense humming. The 49ers have been successful by dominating with a wide-zone attack and hitting on wide-open play-action concepts. If he can dial up a few big plays against Cleveland, San Francisco could start 4-0 for the first time since 1990.

    Play-Action Success, 49ers Offense vs. Browns Defense

    TeamDropbacksYds / AttNFL Rank
    49ers Offense3310.97th
    Vs. Browns Defense4711.528th

     

  • SIS NFL Preview Week 4

    At Sports Info Solutions, our Video Scouts chart FBS and NFL football games 40 hours a week. They chart every play of every game in extraordinary detail, becoming experts in team’s tendencies and concepts. So, who better to ask about what to watch for in this weeks upcoming NFL games? This season we will be providing weekly NFL previews of key matchups with insight straight from our Video Scouts and stats from the SIS DataHub Pro.

    New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills – 9/29 1:00 ET

    Kendall Mirsky, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Throughout the early portion of the season the Patriots have done their fair share of mixing and matching up front in the trenches. The Bills pass rush will need to continue their success this week against a team that has very few deficiencies, if any at all. Specifically key in on Marshall Newhouse’s performance this week, as he now he finds himself starting at LT for the Patriots. If the Bills want to have success this week look for them to exploit Newhouse with the pass rushing skills of Shaq Lawson, Jerry Hughes, and Lorenzo Alexander.

    Bills Top Pass Rushers (Weeks 1-3)

    PlayerPass RushesPressure%
    Jerry Hughes8313.3%
    Lorenzo Alexander4710.6%
    Shaq Lawson3810.5%

     

    Carolina Panthers @ Houston Texans – 9/29 1:00 ET

    Britton Mann, SIS Football Video Scout:

    The most important task for the Panthers offense this weekend is to establish the run game. Christian McCaffrey had a team high 153 rushing yards last weekend which helped open up the passing game for Allen. So far this year the Texans have given up an average of 108 rushing yards per game, which lands them as the 15th best run defense this year. With the Panthers starting their backup quarterback, they’ll need to lean on McCaffrey and his explosive running style in order to beat the Texans on Sunday.

    Christian McCaffrey vs. the Texans Run Defense

     AttYds/AttBroken Tackle%Points Earned (Rushing Plays)
    Christian McCaffrey (Week 3)246.417%2.4
    RBs vs. Texans Defense485.225%4.9

     

    Tennessee Titans @ Atlanta Falcons – 9/29 1:00 ET

    Sales Pinckney, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Early on, Matt Ryan ranks among the top 5 QB’s in Completions, Completion Percentage, Yards, and Passing TD’s. He also ranks first in interceptions out of all QBs. Several potential scoring drives have ended due to an interception, which has often led to points on the other end. This has served as a hindrance to the early season efforts of Julio Jones, who has caught 4 TD passes through the first three weeks. Avoiding turnovers will be key this week as the Falcons take on the Titans, who rank second in turnover margin, and third in interceptions, after three weeks.

    Matt Ryan’s Red Zone Performance by Year

     AttemptsINT%Points Earned (Passing Plays)
    2016961.0%17.3
    2017752.7%2.5
    2018771.3%8.3
    20191414.3%-2.9

     

    Oakland Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts – 9/29 1:00 ET

    Cyril Zachary Penn, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Gareon Conley needs to get back on track for the Raiders to find a semblance of defensive success. Conley looked great last season, giving up 21 catches on 42 targets, while surrendering a league-low 59% deserved catch rate among defenders targeted over 20 times. This year, he’s given up 11 catches on 13 targets and is allowing the second-most yards per target of any corner that has seen at least 10 targets . With limited pass rushers and an injury-riddled linebacker unit, the Raiders will continue giving up points in bunches if Conley doesn’t find his 2018 form.

    Gareon Conley’s Performance 2018 vs. 2019

     TargetsDeserved Catch%Yds/TargetPoints Saved (Passing Plays)
    20174256%9.59
    20181385%14.3-10.4

     

    Washington Redskins @ New York Giants – 9/29 1:00 ET

    Andrew McKeon, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Even though Saquon Barkley is gone for the foreseeable future, do not expect the playbook to shrink this week. Expect the opposite, actually. Daniel Jones’ debut should have created a lot of confidence for Pat Shurmur to really air it out in Barkley’s absence, especially against a typically stout Redskins front seven. Additionally, Josh Norman and the rest of the Redskins secondary has generally struggled to cover receivers so far this season, so depending on game flow, expect Shurmur to cut Jones loose this week.

    Daniel Jones (Week 3) vs Redskins Top 2 Cornerbacks (Weeks 1-3)

     AttCatchable%IQRPoints Earned (Passing Plays)
    Daniel Jones3681%112.87.4
         
     TargetsDeserved Catch%QBR AgainstPoints Saved (Passing Plays)
    Josh Norman1987%119.9-4.5
    Quinton Dunbar11100%89.90.7

     

    Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints – 9/29 8:20 ET

    Cole Ratliff, SIS Operations Associate:

    As the Cowboys face a tough test vs the Saints this week, the key will be the defense stopping Alvin Kamara.  A key to help stop Kamara will be gap control across the line of scrimmage to prevent cutback lanes so Kamara has no opening to run through.

    Alvin Kamara vs. the Cowboys Run Defense

     AttYds/AttBroken Tkl%Points Earned (Rushing Plays)
    Alvin Kamara425.031%4.5
    RB’s vs. Cowboys Defense (Weeks 1-3)415.017%1.7

    The Cowboys offense has been an equal balance through three games in both the run and pass game, including both Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard each rushing for over 100 yards vs Miami.  A key to the Cowboys offensive success has been Dak Prescott and his improvement in getting the ball out of his hands quickly and distributing the ball to his playmakers.

    Will Osgood, SIS Football Video Scout:

    Playing a team with a mobile quarterback for the third time in four weeks means Marcus Davenport gets to show one more time how athletic and versatile he is. He’ll again be the key to keeping the quarterback (this time Dak Prescott) from making plays outside the pocket. And with the Cowboys being a heavy play action team he will have to be smart with when he aggressively pursues the quarterback and when he chooses to maintain his gap against the run.

    Marcus Davenport (Weeks 1-3)

    PlayerPass RushesPressure%Points Saved (Passing Plays)Points Saved (Rushing Plays)
    Marcus Davenport6512%2.51.4