By Steve Schwartz
It will be cold in Baltimore Thursday night, but that shouldn’t bother these two northeast teams and the wind should not be a factor. However, in Week 15, when no player is completely healthy, pay attention to the active/inactive list before proceeding; some key players on the Ravens’ offense (Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews) have been limping around at practice this week.
The following props are evaluated using SISBets.com (registered users get 10 free queries).
Our overall record is 24-18, including 4-0, 3-1, 3-1, 4-0 in four of the last seven weeks (we went 0-3 last week). Let’s see if we can fix the recent slide! Odds from ParxCasino.com.
1) Lamar Jackson, over 17.5 completions, -112.
Jackson hasn’t completed more than 17 passes in seven games, but an injured quad is likely to keep his running to a minimum, forcing him to stay in the pocket and pass the ball more often. They could also try using more of Mark Ingram, but the Jets are No. 2 in rushing yards allowed … just 78.8 ypg. Meanwhile, New York is yielding 23.2 completions per game (23rd overall). Jackson should display his ability to throw from the pocket and cover this number easily. SIS analysis expects 21.2 completions making a fair price -380, but we are only paying -112. Best bet of the night.
2) Le’Veon Bell, under 3.5 receptions, +118.
Bell has seen just 16 targets over the past four games. That’s half the targets he saw in the first four games of the season. Bell is seeing less usage as time goes by, both rushing and receiving. SIS data sets his expected targets at 3.7 and receptions at 2.6. A fair market value for this prop bet is -279, but the actual number is +118.
3) Robby Anderson, score a touchdown, +375.
Anderson has finally started to look like the guy we thought he was. He’s caught a touchdown pass in three of the last four games. Quarterback Sam Darnold has been featuring him the past two games and because of this Anderson has racked up double-digit targets in both. We assume the 16-point favorite Ravens will be out front for most of the game and the Jets will play catch up which can only be good news for Anderson’s chances. SIS data gives the Jets star wideout a 34-percent chance to catch a touchdown pass which translates to a fair number at +286, but the casino offer is +375.
4) Ty Montgomery, score a touchdown, +900.
Montgomery has yet to score a touchdown this season, but the wide receiver-turned-running back figures to see a bigger role in Week 15 due to the absence of Bell’s primary backup Bilal Powell (ankle). Although Monty is also less than 100-percent, he is expected to play and could see close to double-digit touches, if active. SIS data suggests Bell will see a light workload, just 17 touches, opening the way for Montgomery. The casino odds of +900 are about three times what it should be.
Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Their data can be found in the majority of team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.
Quarterback Touchdown Passes
Sam Darnold, 0.5, over -250/under +195
Lamar Jackson, 1.5, over -175/under +138
Sam Darnold, 0.5, over -192/under +150
Lamar Jackson, 0.5, over +116/under -148
Sam Darnold, 20.5 completions, over +100/under -128
Lamar Jackson, 17.5 completions, over -112/under -112
New York Jets
Le’Veon Bell +120
Robby Anderson +375
Jamison Crowder +325
Daniel Brown +650
Ty Montgomery +900
Sam Darnold +900
Mark Ingram -134
Lamar Jackson -112
Mark Andrews +150
Marquise Brown +180
Willie Snead IV +285
Gus Edwards +325
Hayden Hurst +350
Nick Boyle +500
Seth Roberts +600
Justice Hill +650
Miles Boykin +850
New York Jets –
Jamison Crowder, 4.5, over +159/under -162
Robby Anderson, 3.5, over -139/under +112
Le’Veon Bell, 3.5, over -148/under -+118
Marquise Brown, 3.5, over +129/under -162