By Steve Schwarz

All odds via Parx Casino. 

All SIS projections via

 The first game, and the first week of the season, can frequently provide good opportunities to beat the odds because, with limited preseason work, most sites are just taking educated guesses. Thursday’s Buccaneers-Cowboys game should be a relatively high-scoring affair with a 51.5 point over/under and is expected to be the third-highest scoring game of the weekend.

Thursday’s season opener –

1) Tom Brady, under 300.5 passing yards, -112

Sure Tom Brady is the “goat” but that doesn’t mean you can’t bet against him when the numbers dictate. In this case the over is too high as the SIS data says he’ll complete 23.5 passes for 273 yards and 2 touchdowns. Also, with Tampa Bay an 8.5-point favorite, the fourth quarter might be a case where the Bucs feature the running attack to shorten the game.


2) Ronald Jones II, score TD, +125

3) Ronald Jones II, over 48.5 rushing yards, -113

Gaming sites are underestimating Ronald Jones but we aren’t. He is the starter and gets the first chance to control the workload. Our data shows he has a 59.5% chance of scoring which should make him a -147 favorite, not a +125 underdog. Our tools predict 68 rushing yards which makes him a huge favorite to cover the over on the small 48.5-yard number. We expect just 47 yards from Leonard Fournette and no rushing yards from the pass-catching specialist Giovani Bernard.


4) Blake Jarwin, over 1.5 receptions, -112

5) Blake Jarwin, over 21.5 receiving yards, -112

Jarwin was on a short list of breakout tight ends heading into last year before a knee injury cost him the season. He’s another player being overlooked and in Week 1 even a modest effort could cover both the receptions and yardage numbers. There’s a reason the team signed him to a four-year, $22 million deal and he will find a niche even with all the wide receiver talent on this Cowboys team. Our analysis is predicting 3 receptions for 36 yards, easily covering both totals.


6) Michael Gallup, over 3.5 receptions, -110.

When people talk about the Cowboys’ receiving corps they always talk about Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, but seemingly forget the third man Gallup. Gallup has seen more than 100 targets in each of the last two seasons and averaged a solid 975 yards a season. He has also averaged over four catches per game over that span.

In Week 1 of 2021 we actually have Gallup slightly ahead of his two compatriots in receptions: Gallup 4.8, Cooper 4.8 and Lamb 4.7.


Those are our suggestions. Good luck with your choices tonight!

Sports Info Solutions has been an innovator in the collection and analysis of sports data for almost two decades. SIS specializes in baseball and football data, using professional scouting practices to collect the most detailed and accurate information in both sports. Its is used in team front offices, and on websites such as Fangraphs and Football Outsiders.


Full list of props considered

Quarterback Touchdown Passes


Dak Prescott, 1.5, over -135/under +110

Tom Brady, 2.5, over +145/under -182


Quarterback Passing Yards


Dak Prescott, over 280.5 -112/under -110

Tom Brady, over 300.5, -112/under -112


Quarterback Completions


Dak Prescott, 25.5 completions, over -134/under +103

Tom Brady, 25.5 completions, over +103/under -134


Touchdown Scorers


Dallas –

Ezekiel Elliott, -125

Amari Cooper, +175

CeeDee Lamb, +165

Michael Gallup, +270

Jarwin Blake, +500

Dak Prescott, +340

Tony Pollard, +450

Dalton Schultz, +475


Tampa Bay –

Mike Evans, -103

Ron Jones, +125

Chris Godwin, +143

Leonard Fournette, +170

Antonio Brown, +175

Rob Gronkowski, +275

OJ Howard, +430

Gio Bernard, +480

Tom Brady, +500

Scotty Miller, +525


Rushing Yards


Ezekiel Elliott, 55.5, over -112/under -112

Ron Jones, 48.5, over -113/under -110


Receiving Yards


Dallas –

Amari Cooper, 60.5, over -113/under -110

CeeDee Lamb, 59.5, over -113/under -110

Michael Gallup, 48.5, over -110/under -113

Ezekiel Elliott, 21.5, over -113/under -110

Blake Jarwin, 21.5, over -112/under -112


Tampa Bay –

Mike Evans, 62.5, over -114/under -109

Antonio Brown, 60.5, over -110/under -113

Chris Godwin, 56.5, over -112/under -112

Rob Gronkowski, 31.5, over -113/under -110

Ron Jones, 5.5, over -109/under -114




Dallas –

Amari Cooper, 5.5, over +110/under -143

CeeDee Lamb, 5.5, over +118/under -155

Michael Gallup, 3.5, over -134/under +103

Ezekiel Elliott, 3.5, over +107/under -139

Blake Jarwin, 1.5, over -190/under +144


Tampa Bay –

Mike Evans, 3.5, over -182/under +138

Antonio Brown, 4.5, over -155/under +118

Chris Godwin, 4.5, over -143/under +110

Rob Gronkowski, 2.5, over -159/under +122