by STEVEN SCHWARZ
This Thursday Night Football game between the Cardinals and Packers. should be a great matchup, perhaps even a preview of a Divisional Playoff game or Conference Championship. There’s a lot to look forward to as we watch Kyler Murray and Aaron Rodgers at work.
But from a gambling perspective, there’s one caveat: Notice that Green Bay receiver odds for both receptions and yards are not available.
There are too many question marks as of this writing related to who will be catching balls from Rodgers. His main receiver Davante Adams, is sidelined with a positive Covid-19 test and Allen Lazard, as an unvaccinated close contact, has also been ruled out.
The biggest question is whether Marquez Valdes-Scantling (hamstring) will be activated from the IR. No Packer is listed for over/under receptions and only tight ends and running back Aaron Jones are listed for receiving yards.
With that, here are our picks:
1) Kyler Murray, under 24.5 completions, under -105.
Murray is playing at an MVP level, but the 24.5 completion level is too high. He has reached that total just twice in seven games and not since Week 3. DraftKings set the odds at -105, but the SIS data analysis predicts 22.5 completions for 244.6 yards and 1.7 touchdowns. The fair market value for this “under” should be -207.
2) Zach Ertz, under 3.5 receptions, under -170.
Ertz, traded from Philadelphia just a week ago, exploded onto the scene with a 47-yard touchdown catch and run and is just what the Cardinals needed. But he is one of many talented pass catchers on this team which includes; DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, A.J. Green and rookie Rondale Moore. Running back Chase Edmonds also catches the ball well.
Ertz is likely behind all five players on the target totem pole. Our analysis has Ertz seeing 3.7 targets and catching 2.3 balls for 24 yards. That sets the fair under value at -398, but at DraftKings it’s just -170.
3) AJ Dillon, over 31.5 rushing yards, over -115.
Dillon has become a significant part of the Packers running game as the season has progressed. He had 19 touches in the first three games this season, but that number jumped to 39 in the next three contests. The Cardinals have been very good near the goal line, allowing just one rushing touchdown, but they are middle-of-the-road in yards allowed (86.2 ypg). The SIS data expects Dillon to rush for 40.8 yards, well above the 31.5 yards needed for the over.
*Odds courtesy of DraftKings
Quarterback Passing Yards
Aaron Rodgers, 255.5 yards, over -115/under -115
Kyler Murray, 276.5 yards, over -115/under -115
Quarterback Passing TDs
Aaron Rodgers, over 1.5, TDs, -165/under +125
Kyler Murray, over 2.5 TDs, +150/under -205
Aaron Rodgers, over 0.5, INTs, +160/under -215
Kyler Murray, over 0.5 INTs, +105/under -140
Aaron Rodgers, over 24.5, -105/under -125
Kyler Murray, over 24.5, -125/under -105
Green Bay –
Aaron Jones, -120
Randall Cobb, +225
Robert Tonyan, +225
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, +250
AJ Dillon, +275
Equanimeous St. Brown, +400
Aaron Rodgers, +450
Marcedes Lewis, +750
James Conner, +100
DeAndre Hopkins, +110
Kyler Murray, +140
Zach Ertz, +175
Chase Edmonds, +200
AJ Green, +225
Christian Kirk, +225
Rondale Moore, +330
Green Bay –
Aaron Jones, 59.5, over -115/under -115
Aaron Rodgers, 9.5, over -110/under -120
AJ Dillon, 31.5, over -115/under -115
Chase Edmonds, 44.5 yards, over -115/under -115
James Conner, 48.5 yards, over -115/under -115
Kyler Murray, 28.5 yards, over -115/under -115
Green Bay –
Aaron Jones, 33.5, over -125/under -110
Marcedes Lewis, 18.5, over -110/under -120
Robert Tonyan, 35.5, over -120/under -110
AJ Green, 46.5, over -115/under -115
Chase Edmonds, 22.5, over -115/under -115
Christian Kirk, 45.5, over -110/under -120
DeAndre Hopkins, 5.5, over -115/under -115
Rondale Moore, 3.5, over -110/under -120
Zach Ertz, 30.5, over -115/under -115
Green Bay –
AJ Green, 3.5, over -135/under +100
Chase Edmonds, 3.5, over +115/under -150
Christian Kirk, 3.5, over -160/under +120
DeAndre Hopkins, 5.5, over -110/under -120
Rondale Moore, 3.5, over +105/under -140
Zach Ertz, 3.5, over +130/under -175