Photo: David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire

Arguably the biggest game of the year so far took place last Thursday night and it did not disappoint. History was made, with us witnessing the first NFL game to end with a walk-off 2-point conversion. The Seattle Seahawks got their revenge and defeated the Los Angeles Rams 38-37, gaining the inside track to representing the NFC as the first seed in the process. 

The Rams will be kicking themselves for letting go of the game that was all but theirs, but all is not lost. They should still feel confident in their chances come January, backed by the fact that they rank 1st overall in our team Total Points metric.* 

*For a refresher, here is our primer on Total Points.

The Seahawks came into the match ranking 2nd themselves, and the two bouts between them so far have further emphasized how neck and neck the two clubs are, well summarized by this stat. 

Let’s take a deeper look into why each team should and shouldn’t feel confident about its chances to win it all.

Why the Seahawks can win the Super Bowl: Improving rushing attack, special teams advantage

In my previous article, I covered why the Seahawks should still feel like they’re in the mix due to their defense but in order to truly contend, they will need to answer questions about both their running and passing games, especially against elite defenses in high-stakes moments. 

While they still have more to prove to completely quell those concerns, especially in their passing attack, their showing last Thursday was a step in the right direction. 

The Seahawks entered the game with the 2nd worst rushing EPA per attempt in the league. Given that placement, it may seem odd that they ranked 14th in rushing Total Points per attempt, but that can be explained by them ranking as the worst run blocking unit in the same metric. 

They arguably had their best rushing performance of the season so far, gaining 171 yards on 25 carries, with two of those resulting in touchdowns. The numbers matched what our eyes were telling us, improving across the board:

Seattle must continue to demonstrate that it can punish opposing defenses on the ground and take pressure off Sam Darnold and the receiving corps. Teams that end up lifting the Lombardi trophy are often the best at problem solving and have other pitches to go to when their fastball is compromised, so to speak.  

An area they have already proven to be among the league’s elite throughout the season is special teams. The Seahawks rank 6th in special teams Total Points per play, backing up that ranking with top 5 rankings in both punt and kickoff average return yards. 

The momentum-shifting punt return touchdown by Rashid Shaheed upped Seattle’s combined punt and kick return touchdown total to three, tied for most in the league. They also have three combined punt and field goal blocks, again tied for most in the league, showcasing their penchant for making plays in all phases of special teams.

Why not the Seahawks: Passing questions remain, turnovers

To Sam Darnold’s credit, he demonstrated that he could deliver when the team needed him to and win a game with massive stakes, particularly against a team who has given him the most trouble the past couple of seasons. 

For the last half of the fourth and overtime, Darnold went 8 for 11 (excluding a spike) for 91 yards and two touchdowns, in addition to completing two 2-point conversions. At least for one game, he was able to get the proverbial monkey off of his back. 

For the first three-and-a-half quarters however, things didn’t seem that way, with Chris Shula and his defense seemingly flummoxing Darnold at every turn and forcing two back-breaking picks, both with disguised coverages. 

I noted previously that up through Week 11, the Seahawks had a negative passing EPA for the season when facing dime personnel (6+ defensive backs). Things were more of the same last Thursday, with them posting a 10% success rate and -13 EPA against dime (-5 EPA against nickel as well).

There is still time for Darnold and the Seahawks to establish whether they can perform consistently when in obvious passing down situations, but for now things don’t look fixed.

In addition to the two aforementioned interceptions, Cooper Kupp also lost a fumble to his former team, bringing Seattle’s turnover total up to 26, second-most in the league. Denver, San Francisco, and Seattle are the only teams over .500 with a negative turnover differential. 

Teams who have lost the turnover battle are a combined 41-143-1 so far in the 2025 season.  Needless to say, the Seahawks need to turn things around in that department to give themselves the best chance come January.

Why the Rams can win the Super Bowl: Complete team on offense

In a lot of ways, the Rams are who the Seahawks want to become on offense. They are 1st in offensive team Total Points per play, in large part due to having top 5 players at both quarterback and wide receiver in Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua. 

Even having to face an elite defense, Stafford lit up the Seahawks, throwing for 457 yards and three touchdowns with no picks. Nacua accounted for 12 of those completions, racking up a ludicrous 225 yards and two touchdowns. 

If that wasn’t enough, they also employ the receiving touchdowns leader, Davante Adams, though it may take a while for him to return to form, as detailed in this piece by Alex Vigderman.

The passing attack is counterbalanced by a solid run game led by Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, ranking 3rd in rushing success rate and 4th lowest in percentage of runs hit at the line. 

Since Week 9, the midway point of the season, among tailbacks, Williams ranks 1st in rushing EPA per attempt and 11th in Total Points per play, while Corum ranks 12th and 6th in those same categories respectively. 

Their offensive line is nothing to sneeze at either, ranking 3rd in blocking Total Points per play. They have the 4th lowest blown block percentage in the league and rank 2nd and 4th in sack and pressure percentage allowed, respectively. The Seahawks couldn’t bring Stafford down even once. 

Over the full season, both the Rams and Seahawks are among the best teams in keeping the quarterback clean (and doing so without spamming quick game).

* Bottom left is best

Why not the Rams: Defensive slippage, special teams mistakes

Honestly a bit of a nitpick here, as I would consider the Rams to employ a good defense. But no team is perfect and they are no exception. 

The Rams are quietly 19th in run defense Total Points per play. They have allowed over 120 rushing yards in four of their past six games, and two of those four have resulted in losses, including Thursday night. 

Against play action, they came into the game ranked T-7th-worst in EPA allowed per dropback, 8th-worst in boom percentage allowed, and 2nd-worst in bust percentage forced (where boom plays gain the offense 1 EPA or more and bust plays lose the offense 1 EPA or more). The Seahawks exploited this, with Darnold completing 10 of 13 passes for 167 yards and two touchdowns when in play action. 

If opposing teams can establish their attacks on the ground and make hay with play action, the Rams have shown themselves to be susceptible. 

A not-so-quiet underperforming phase of their team that reared its head in this game is special teams, and this proved to be the straw that broke the camel’s back with the firing of their special teams coordinator, Chase Blackburn. 

The Rams rank 23rd in special teams Total Points per play. Special team blunders played a crucial role in three of their four losses this season, which include allowing two blocked field goals—one of which was returned for the game-deciding touchdown—against the Eagles, allowing a blocked extra point against the 49ers, and then giving up the punt return touchdown to the Seahawks.

Final Words

The Seahawks should be feeling great after wrestling away control of the NFC, but they know the job is not finished. They have questions they will need to continue to address through the end of the regular season and into the playoffs. 

On the other side, even though they lost, the Rams have a solid argument for being the NFC’s best and most complete team. Their questions may prove to be more easily addressable as well. 

Both the Seahawks and the Rams are top five teams by almost any overall measure of team quality. They are evenly matched through two, and there is a decent chance the two will meet again for a third and final match. 

The winner may well represent the NFC in Santa Clara. Which of the two will come out victorious? I, for one, can’t wait to find out.