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Author: Brett Barnes

  • Examining The Super Bowl Injury Storylines

    Examining The Super Bowl Injury Storylines

    Photos: Kyle Ross (left) and Mark Albert (right)/Icon Sportswire

    This week is the first weekend without an NFL game since the preseason, signaling we are winding down on a thrilling season, hopefully capped by an exhilarating Super Bowl next weekend. With only two teams left standing we are left with only a few injury storylines heading into the big game. 

    The Eagles played with a shuffled offensive line in the NFC Championship. It didn’t seem to negatively affect them too much against Washington, but are still dealing with injury issues on that front. We highlighted the loss of Nakobe Dean in the divisional round, but his replacement has done a nice job filling the hole that he left. Finally, a 36 year-old defensive end who was a hero in Super Bowl LII looks to potentially make a comeback for the biggest game of the season.

    On the other side, Kansas City looks to be going into the game relatively healthy. The most notable injury storyline for the Chiefs is how the return of a few players who missed a majority of the season has positively impacted their team on both sides of the ball.

    Landon Dickerson

    For the Eagles, Landon Dickerson suffered a left knee injury in the NFC Championship game. He was playing center as opposed to his normal left guard spot, filling in for Cam Jurgens who went into the game with a back injury. Dickerson toughed it out until halftime but couldn’t continue, and the already injured Jurgens stepped in. 

    It would be a big loss if either of them can’t suit up, it’s a small sample size (under 200 snaps), but without Landon Dickerson on the field for the Eagles, the team’s rushing metrics take a big hit.

    Dickerson On The Field Dickerson Off The Field
    Rushing EPA/60 Plays 6 -7
    Team Blown Block % 12.8% 21.0%
    Rushing Yards Before Contact 2.6 0.9
    Rushing Yards Per Attempt 5.7 3.6

    Saquon Barkley specifically has 20 carries for only 69 yards when Dickerson is on the sideline this season. These metrics all trend the same way if the team has missed Cam Jurgens this season as well. If he’s limited or unable to play, Dickerson could draw another start at center for the Super Bowl if his knee allows it.

    Tyler Steen was playing left guard last week when Dickerson and Jurgens were rotating at center. For the season he’s given up 9 blown blocks in 173 snaps, good for 5% of the time. On the other hand Dickerson has only given up 14 in 1,049 snaps at left guard, 1.3% of the snaps. 

    As the Eagles portrayed in the NFC Championship, they can be successful mixing and matching their offensive line, but when trying to lift the Lombardi Trophy, and going against a Chiefs team who hasn’t allowed a 100 yard rusher in their last 18 playoff games, having their best players in their best position is vital to their chances. 

    Nakobe Dean’s Replacements

    We highlighted how Oren Burks has had some experience filling in for injured players in big games before. In the last 2 games where he’s started for the injured Dean at linebacker, he’s filled up the stat sheet.

    Over those two games, Burks is tied for the playoff league lead in tackles for loss. He is 4th in combined tackles with 15, and among defenders with at least 3 targets against he’s tied with teammate Quinyon Mitchell for 2nd in Pass Coverage Total Points. He’s rushed on only 10% of his pass snaps but has mixed in 2 pressures with a sack. He’s filled the gap left by losing Dean nicely, and his well-rounded game is part of the reason the defense hasn’t missed a beat.

    Brandon Graham Returning?

    Brandon Graham was having a resurgence this season, having a monster impact on the Eagles defense, until he tore his tricep in Week 12. After what was deemed to be a season-ending injury, the Eagles have opened his practice window from IR, leaving the door slightly open for him to make a comeback. 

    Brandon Graham On/Off Splits in 2024

    On The Field Off The Field
    Opposing Offense Passing EPA/60 Plays -12 1
    Opposing Offense Rushing EPA/60 Plays -16 -5
    Eagles Sack % 9.6% 5.8%

    While the Eagles have missed his experience and tenacity for the back half of the season, his injury has allowed for the emergence of Nolan Smith, who is coming into his own in his second season. His snap count jumped drastically after Graham went down and he’s taken advantage of the opportunity. Since Week 13, the first game Graham missed, he’s 22nd in Pass Rush Total Points per play among the 124 pass rushers with at least 100 rush snaps. Teammates Moro Ojomo and Jalen Carter are right in that neighborhood, with opponents Chris Jones and George Karlaftis higher up. You probably need some dominant pass rushers if you want to be playing in February. 

    Chiefs key returnees

    While there aren’t any glaring injury issues for Kansas City going into the Super Bowl, they had to endure their fair share during the regular season leading up to this point. 

    Losing Rashee Rice for the year to a knee injury in Week 4, combined with the preseason clavicle injury that sidelined offseason acquisition Hollywood Brown, left the Chiefs thin at WR early on. The growth of Xavier Worthy, the addition of Deandre Hopkins, and adding Brown back into the fold now leaves them with a wealth of playmakers for the Super Bowl. 

    Brown came back for his first game as a Chief in Week 16, as he’s gotten more acclimated in this offense we can see what effect he’s had on it as a whole.

    Brown On The Field Brown Off The Field
    Total Offense EPA/60 Plays 11 2
    Passing EPA/60 Plays 15 6
    Rushing EPA/60 Plays 4 -4

    While not directly correlated, an interesting fact this season is that Patrick Mahomes has yet to throw an interception with him on the field, after he threw 11 in the first 10 games of the season. 

    Since Xavier Worthy is so fast, people think he’s the field stretcher, but he sits 4th on the Chiefs in average depth of target, behind Justin Watson, the aforementioned Brown, and even Hopkins. The Chiefs look to get the ball in his hands quickly and then let him do the rest with his legs, instead of launching the ball to him downfield. He leads the team in yards after catch as 482 of his 768 yards this year have happened after the ball was in his hands. 

    So it’s actually Brown who helps stretch the field, and this gives a player like Travis Kelce more room to operate. Kelce averages 9.3 yards per reception sharing the field with Brown compared to 6.5 when he’s been sidelined. This offense has gotten more complete, efficient, and dynamic since Brown entered the lineup and we’ll see if Andy Reid has any tricks up his sleeve for the Super Bowl.

    On the other side of the ball, CB Jaylen Watson missed the last 11 games of the regular season with a broken leg but returned for the playoffs. It’s been a welcome return for the Chiefs’ defense. For the season he ranks 3rd in the entire league in completion % allowed (38.5%). Interestingly enough the team’s overall pressure percentage on QB’s jumps to 43%, up from 35%, when he’s on the field.

    Not only has his presence improved the defense as a whole, but individually his running mate Trent McDuffie sees a bump in his performance as well. McDuffie gave up 5.7 yards per target when Watson wasn’t on the field, that goes down to only 3.6 when they’re on the field together. As Watson has gotten more reps under his belt during the playoffs coming off a serious injury, he’s getting more comfortable making an impact for this defense and making everyone around him better. We’ll see how well he and the whole unit can perform against the Eagles’ punishing offense.

  • Appreciating The Value of The Tight End

    Appreciating The Value of The Tight End

    Photo: Andy Lewis/Icon Presswire

    When comparing the top 10 tight ends in Receiving Total Points from the 2023 season and the 2024 season, there is a lot of turnover. Only a few names find themselves on both lists at this point of the season. Along with that, there have been a handful of players who have missed significant time due to injury as well, which have impacted their respective teams one way or another.

    2023 Total Points
    George Kittle* 28
    Jake Ferguson 28
    David Njoku* 27
    Travis Kelce 25
    Kyle Pitts 18
    Michael Mayer* 18
    Cole Kmet 18
    Dallas Goedert* 17
    Sam LaPorta 17
    Dalton Schultz 16

    * Missed multiple games this season due to injury

    This season’s top 10 list features a breakout rookie along with a few other young players. Half of the list features tight ends who are still within their first 3 seasons in the NFL. This seems to signal a youth movement at the position.

    2024 Total Points
    Brock Bowers 21
    George Kittle* 18
    Jonnu Smith 16
    Kyle Pitts 15
    Trey McBride* 15
    Hunter Henry 14
    Isaiah Likely* 11
    Dalton Kincaid* 11
    Mike Gesicki 10
    Cade Otton 10

    * Missed at least one game this season due to injury

    The only players who are on both lists are George Kittle and Kyle Pitts. While Pitts has been healthy all year, Kittle has been banged up while still being very productive and a vital piece for the 49ers.

    The 49ers are 0-2 when Kittle doesn’t suit up this season and 1-4 without him since the start of the 2022 season. He’s been dealing with a lingering hamstring injury as well as rib and foot injuries throughout the season. 

    When he doesn’t play the 49ers offense operates virtually the same in terms of personnel groupings, motion percentage, and play action percentage. To my surprise most of the passing stats improve when he’s off the field. Completion percentage is way up, touchdown percentage is up and interception percentage goes down. The one passing area that diminishes without Kittle is yards after catch. Kittle averages 29.5 yards after catch per game, trailing only Brock Bowers among tight ends. The 49ers definitely miss that skill when trying to extend drives in Kittle’s absence.

    That doesn’t tell the whole story though. When Kittle doesn’t suit up the 49ers might miss his presence in the blocking and run game more than the passing game.

    Kittle On the Field Kittle Off the Field
    Yards per Carry 5.6 4.0
    Sack % Allowed 5.2% 7.3%
    Blown Block % 13.3% 17.6%

    He’s such a well rounded tight end that his absence affects the offensive line and the running backs. It’s evident because Kittle is second among tight ends in Total Points on blocking snaps.

    There is a different tight end who was on the top 10 of 2023 who I wanted to look into. Like Kittle, he has missed multiple games this season. His team is currently over .500 though, Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert.

    A hamstring injury cost Goedert three games this season. One big change in the Eagles’ offense this season when Goedert is on field is the amount of passes to the short middle part of the field. 

    44% of throws by Jalen Hurts go to this area compared to 28% when he’s sidelined. Hurts also takes care of the ball much better when he has his reliable tight end. 

    Goedert On the Field Goedert Off the Field
    Touchdown % 6% 3.4%
    Interception % 0% 3.4%

    Another sign of Goedert’s importance for the Eagles is how he steps up on 3rd down to be a major threat. Among tight ends with at least 5 targets on 3rd down, he ranks first in Total Points per route run. For what it’s worth, Kittle ranks third on that list.

    The similarities with Goedert and Kittle don’t stop there; Goedert has a huge impact on the Eagles’ blocking and run game. Just like the 49ers, the Eagles’ sack allowed percentage and blown block percentage go up without Goedert on the field. Also the yards per carry goes from 4.8 without him to 5.8 with him on the field. He’s one of only five tight ends with at least 100 snaps to have 0 blown blocks on the season. For an Eagles team that ranks first in run play percentage, Goedert’s presence as a blocker might get overlooked as a key piece to their whole offensive attack.

    Another “tight end” worth mentioning that doesn’t appear on either top 10 list is Taysom Hill. The unique swiss army knife tight end is asked to do more things on the offensive side of the ball than just about any other player. He’s also missed time this season due to injury and the Saints are 0-4 when he doesn’t play this season (with overlap from Derek Carr’s absence). He’s definitely not a traditional TE, as he has 34 carries on the season with 6 rushing touchdowns and averages a robust 7.9 yards per carry.

    The Saints offense operates with multiple tight ends about 90% of the time when he is on the field compared to about 30% when he is off of it. Hill is usually sharing the field with other tight ends which gives the Saints the freedom to have him in different alignments all over the formation. The offense as a whole has been significantly worse when he is on the sideline.

    On the Field Off the Field Difference
    Total EPA/60 Plays 11 -3 14
    Passing EPA/60 Plays  0 -2 2
    Rushing EPA/60 Plays 23 -5 28

    An individual player who benefits a ton when he is on the field is Alvin Kamara. With teams having to deal with the threat of Hill getting the ball, Kamara has more room to be effective. His yards per carry goes from 3.8 without Hill to 5.9 with him sharing the field. We’ll see if interim head coach Darren Rizzi has more plans to keep Hill heavily involved moving forward, not only as an option himself, but as a decoy as well.

    Diving into the tight end position opened my eyes to how important they are to their teams because of the versatility. Whether it be an extension of the offensive line, catching a 3rd down throw, or even running the ball, having an impactful tight end opens up a team’s offense. We see the large impact missing these high end players have on their respective teams, and we hope everyone stays healthy as the season reaches the stretch run.

  • Forecasting Aidan Hutchinson’s Performance When He Returns

    Forecasting Aidan Hutchinson’s Performance When He Returns

    The only negative that came out of the Lions’ Week 6 throttling of the Cowboys was losing one of their best players, edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson. A gruesome leg injury, that occurred on a play where he’s getting a sack no less, will put an end to his season.

    At this point in the 2024 season he led the NFL in sacks (7.5) and pressures (39), with the latter by a wide margin over 2nd place (28). Among defensive ends with at least 5 pressures he ranks first in Pass Rush Total Points and second in Points Saved per rush. Before his leg injury Hutchinson was the betting favorite for Defensive Player of the Year. 

    That’s a tough blow for the Lions team that has Super Bowl aspirations. The team brought in DE Marcus Davenport in the offseason to try and complement Hutchinson on the opposite side, but he already suffered a season-ending triceps injury. The depth of the Lions’ edge rushers is going to be tested and the team might address the issue via trade if they don’t like their in-house solutions.

    After suffering a severe injury like that, it’s easy to wonder not only how long Hutchinson will be out, but how he will look once he gets back onto the field. Reports of a successful surgery point him on the positive road to recovery.

    There have been a few edge rushers who have suffered lower leg/ankle fractures that required surgery that we can look at to gauge production when they return to the field. To get a big enough sample size of games we looked at the production of 8 games prior to injury and then the first 8 games after they returned. Since 2018, four players fit all of these parameters, and the stats we looked at were; snaps per game, tackles per game, pressure rate, Total Points per pass rush, and Total Points per run defense snap.  

    Kemoko Turay

    Snaps Tackles Pressure Rate TP/Pass Rush TP/Run Defense
    8 Game Average Before Injury 15.1 0.9 18% 0.07 0.04
    8 Game Average After Injury 12.6 0.6 8% 0.02 0.05

    Kemoko Turay never really came back to form once he came back from the injury with the Colts. Almost every stat category is down, and a few by a significant margin. The second player we look at has much more success.

    Brian Burns

    Timeframe Snaps Tackles Pressure Rate TP/Pass Rush TP/Run Defense
    8 Game Average Before Injury 55.8 3.4 12% 0.08 0.02
    8 Game Average After Injury 47.3 3.1 11% 0.08 0.03

    Brian Burns was eased back into action for the Panthers, with fewer snaps upon his return, which helps him stay consistent in his effectiveness as a player. 

    Taco Charlton

    Timeframe Snaps Tackles Pressure Rate TP/Pass Rush TP/Run Defense
    8 Game Average Before Injury 18.4 1.4 13% 0.10 0.05
    8 Game Average After Injury 21.8 2.1 10% 0.01 0.05

    Taco Charlton of the Chiefs received an uptick in workload but a big drop off in his effectiveness as a pass rusher. So far every player up to this point has had their pressure rate decrease.

    Jihad Ward

    Timeframe Snaps Tackles Pressure Rate TP/Pass Rush TP/Run Defense
    8 Game Average Before Injury 27.1 0.8 9% 0.03 -0.03
    8 Game Average After Injury 24.8 0.6 8% 0.04 -0.02

    Our last example, Jihad Ward, who had the surgery while with the Raiders, was the weakest player of the group before the injury. He stays consistent with the drop in pressure rate like the previous players, but is similarly productive overall.

    Now we can look at the cumulative percent changes for all four players from their stats before and after their lower leg/ankle fracture.

    Percentage Change Snaps Tackles Pressure Rate TP/Pass Rush TP/Run Defense
    Cumulative -5% +0%  

    -26%

    		 -30% +4%

    Overall the production of each player is less when they immediately come back, which is to be expected, but only pressure rate was a consistent negative for all four players. Now looking at Aidan Hutchinson’s 8 games prior to his injury on Sunday, we can forecast what he might look like out of the gates next season.

    Aidan Hutchinson

    Timeframe Snaps Tackles Pressure Rate TP/Pass Rush TP/Run Defense
    8 Game Average Before Injury 51.8 3.6 22% 0.13 0.02
    *8 Game Average After Injury *48.9 *3.6 *16% *0.09 *0.02

    * Projection

    Hutchinson’s stats align most closely with Brian Burns, playing a lot of snaps, being extremely effective as a pass rusher, and a solid run defender.  I think it would be reasonable to expect the Lions to limit his workload out of the gate as well as he gets back up to speed. It might not look like it right away, but taking into account Hutchinson’s age and talent level, I think he has a great chance of getting back to Defensive Player of the Year-type production. 

  • NFL Week 1 Injury Fallout

    NFL Week 1 Injury Fallout

    Photo: Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire

    The NFL is back, and with all the excitement of the season starting, we’re quickly reminded of how injuries can impact teams. Here’s what we can share about some of the most notable injuries from Week 1.

    Jordan Love

    The biggest scare of the week happened to Packers quarterback Jordan Love. After fears he could have suffered a season ending knee injury, MRI results revealed an MCL sprain, which shouldn’t sideline him for too long. 

    Looking back at other quarterbacks who have suffered MCL sprains, most were either able to play through them or only miss limited time. Aaron Rodgers suffered the injury in Week 1 of 2018 and he didn’t miss any starts. After the Buccaneers’ Super Bowl win in the 2020 season, it was revealed that Tom Brady played through an MCL tear throughout the season.

    Looking further back Jacoby Brissett and Teddy Bridgewater both only missed one game in 2019 and 2020 respectively. These are all good signs for Jordan Love, as the Packers aren’t planning on placing him on injured reserve and should hopefully resume playing sooner rather than later. 

    Josh Allen

    Another quarterback who suffered a more minor injury was Josh Allen. He injured his non-throwing hand, and while he was cleared for his Week 2 game, it’s still something worth monitoring. 

    Justin Herbert suffered an injury to his non-throwing hand early last season that he played through before another injury ended his season. There was a dip in Herbert’s overall production while playing through his injury.

    Justin Herbert before and after left hand injury, 2023 (Passing)

    Before Injury (Week 1-4) After injury (Week 6-14)
    Completion % 71% 62%
    On-Target % 80% 75%
    Yards per attempt 7.6 6.5
    Yards per game 277 225
    Interception % 0.7% 1.9%
    Passer rating 106.3 87.1
    EPA 15 -13

    Josh Allen is such an effective runner of the football, you can imagine that any physical ailment could limit his effectiveness in pushing for extra yards as a rusher. I took a look to see if Herbert, who runs way less, had any differences before and after that injury.

    Justin Herbert before and after left hand injury, 2023 (Rushing)*

    Herbert before left hand injury

    (Week 1-4)

    		 Herbert after left hand injury

    (Week 6-14)
    Attempts per Game 3.8 3.3
    Broken/Missed Tackles / Att 47% 19.2%
    1st Down % 53% 31%
    Rushing TDs 3 0

    * QB sneaks removed

     

    Allen shouldn’t be physically limited by his hand injury, but it could be something in the back of his mind as he makes decisions throughout the game and overall just how comfortable he is. We can see that Herbert didn’t try to run any less, but he was much less effective after the injury.

     

    Puka Nacua

    Puka Nacua was slowed by a knee injury during training camp and quickly re-aggravated it in Week 1. With his placement on injured reserve, the Rams will be without one of their main pass catchers for the foreseeable future. This is a little role reversal from last season as Cooper Kupp missed the first four games of the 2023 season. On passing plays last season the Rams felt the effects when Kupp wasn’t on the field.

    Kupp On the Field 2023 Kupp Off the Field 2023
    TD% 5.5% 2.8%
    INT% 1.7% 3.2%

    It’ll be interesting to see moving forward if the loss of Nacua has similar effects on the Rams’ passing game, especially when they’re dealing with a multitude of offensive line injuries to start the year. The line had the second most blown blocks on pass plays in Week 1 with 12, only one behind the Titans.

    Derrick Brown and Marshon Lattimore

    Speaking of linemen, the biggest loss for the Panthers wasn’t losing by almost 40 points, but the loss of defensive tackle Derrick Brown. He has a meniscus injury that will require surgery and sideline him for the season. Brown led all DTs last season in snaps and combined tackles. He had the highest Total Points Saved on run plays among DTs with 33, and was top 5 in Points Saved per play (amongst DTs with at least 10 tackles), signaling it wasn’t just his sheer volume/endurance that made him effective.

    On the flip side of that game Marshon Lattimore had to leave early with a hamstring injury, unfortunately a recurring theme for him and the Saints. He missed the final seven games of last season with an ankle injury and was limited in training camp with a hip injury. If he’s forced to miss time I’d expect offenses to challenge the Saints defense with deeper throws down the field. Last season without Lattimore teams threw downfield much less (10% vs 15%) when he was playing. 

    When looking at individual defenders for the Saints last season, both Alontae Taylor and Paulson Adebo had similar completion percentages when targeted with or without Lattimore on the field. However the yards allowed per target for each of them jumped significantly. Taylor going from 5.4 to 8.6, and Adebo going from 5.2 to 7.4. This furthers the point that teams are more comfortable throwing down the field without Lattimore on the field. They added Kool-Aid McKinstry in the draft this year, and he might get thrown into the deep end earlier than anticipated.

    There was a lot to unpack after Week 1, and as the season rolls on we’ll be able to uncover more trends and changes as teams deal with injuries to all different positions.