Category: Scouts vs Stats

Scouts vs Stats: Top 10 Non-Quarterbacks in the NFL

Photo: Brian Lynn/Icon Sportswire

If you’ve listened to the Off The Charts Football Podcast, you know that we like to examine things from a “Scouts versus Stats” perspective – and so we’ve brought that back for at least one discussion as we wait for the 2024 season to begin.

This week’s episode considers a question from those perspectives: Who are the Top 10 non-quarterbacks in the NFL.

Ex-NFL scout Matt Manocherian and podcast host Bryce Rossler took the scouts’ perspective. Our director of football analytics Alex Vigderman and research analyst James Weaver created a statistical ranking based on a suite of metrics.

We can tell you that officially, Sports Info Solutions does not condone the dichotomy between scouting and statistical analysis. Each of them provides data in their own way and should inform our evaluation of a player. We want to put the scouting reports and stats side-by-side, leveraging both to come to a conclusion.

Fair warning: These are vastly different lists.

Scouts’ Opinion	Statistical Analysis
1. Myles Garrett	1. Derrick Henry
2. Micah Parsons	2. T.J. Watt
3. Tyreek Hill	3. Travis Kelce
4. Justin Jefferson	4. Chris Jones
5. Nick Bosa	5. Justin Jefferson
6. T.J. Watt	6. Tyreek Hill
7. Pat Surtain II	7. Sauce Gardner
8. Maxx Crosby	8. George Kittle
9. Roquan Smith	9. Amon-Ra St. Brown
10. Ja’Marr Chase	10. CeeDee Lamb

Now that you’ve finished gasping at a running back – and not Christian McCaffrey – ranking No. 1 in the statistical analysis column, let’s explore the contrast of the two lists.

And let’s get right to the point. Yes, the statistical analysis list has Derrick Henry as the No. 1 non-quarterback.

In simplest form, our stats group created a methodology that is favorable to where Henry stands in the running back universe. He’s No.1 because he’s been “more better” (for lack of a better term) at running back over the last two years than other players are at their respective positions.

The Stats List Methodology

You can listen to the podcast to hear the discussion regarding the surprising analytics-based ranks, but obviously there’s some explanation needed here.

The stats-based ranking includes a two-year average of a player’s results across a handful of flavors of our catch-all Total Points system.

First, there is Points Above Average (PAA) per play, scaled to the positional average and standard deviation. This encapsulates the extent to which the player excels relative to the position on a play-to-play basis.

Second, there is Points Above Replacement (PAR), scaled to the league average and standard deviation. This uses our WAR methodology that measures how valuable a player is in general, incorporating a notion of relative positional value.

This is the first time we’ve mentioned it, but we’re working on a large update to the Total Points system this offseason, which will incorporate a whole bunch of new data points and ideas into the system. We’re not ready to publish those results, but we thought it’d be interesting to include them here to inform our player values.

So, we have each of the scaled PAA per play and PAR values for each of the two versions of Total Points, equally weighted between the four.

The one other element that’s included is player aging. Players start to drop off in production within just a few years of coming into the league, so we want to make sure that we’re capturing that. We computed an aging factor for each of the above metrics and applied that to each player’s two-year averages, to make it more like a projection for 2024.

What the Stats Showed

Having Derrick Henry number 1 is a bit rich, no? Especially given that McCaffrey exists?

Let’s take the second point first. Over the last two years, Henry has generated almost 30 more PAA than McCaffrey as a rusher, which doesn’t get sufficiently counterbalanced by McCaffrey’s receiving excellence.

The gap in rushing is in large part to the difference in their circumstances. Henry has continued to be productive year after year despite having the most carries in the NFL when the offensive line blew a block in front of him over the last two years, and last year he turned more than 60 percent of those into gains. Henry’s elusiveness has not eluded him yet, with similar or better broken and missed tackle rates to McCaffrey’s.

The positional value question is a valid one, though. How is a running back rated so highly in general? In short, we can only measure what we have access to, and that informs how we value positions.

A running back can fumble or get stuffed for a loss on third down, losing a big chunk of value, in a way that a pass rusher or a center does not often do. So the depth of the floor for a running back is more extreme, at least in the statistical record. That means that within the Points Above Replacement framework, the floor for rushers is lower than you think, and therefore the position as a whole is considered more valuable.

The other big contrast

The scouts’ list has several edge rushers on it. The stats list is lacking in them.

Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons are at worst among the handful of best defensive players in the league, so there’s not much to say about them to argue for their inclusion at the top of a crowded field of edge rushers. Parsons is probably the pick if you need one guy to wreck a play, but consistent with their general approach, Garrett got the nod because of how he impacts all phases of the game.

An otherworldly motor against the pass and the run got Maxx Crosby onto the list, and the scouts were indignant at his exclusion from the stats-based list—but only moderately indignant compared to what happened at the top of the board.

So why are many of the top pass rushers in the league not at the top of the stats-based list (although the upcoming Total Points updates will do a lot to make up for that)?

There are more excellent edge rushers than there are excellent interior players, so a single player at the top stands out more in the interior. Chris Jones projects to be one of the biggest risers in the updated Total Points because of how much he dominates as a pass rusher from the interior, as he ranked first and third in 2023 and 2022 in pressure rate, respectively. This isn’t true for the edge rushers, where there are many solid producers.

Parsons will have a similar jump to Jones, but he’s competing at a much tougher position at the top. There are six edge rushers in the top 20 on the stats-based list, compared to just two interior defenders.

Also, our measure of the floor of a defensive front player isn’t as low as it is for other positions—a bad play by a cornerback or a running back is more likely to be a big liability. As a result, when we determine replacement level for each position, we don’t have as much value assigned to pass rushers as we do other positions.

Other highlights from the stats list

Travis Kelce might have been a more palatable choice for this list a year ago, but it’s worth noting that he still posted the best receiving PAA among tight ends last season. George Kittle’s balanced skill set got him on the list, coming in the Top 2 in Receiving and Blocking Total Points among tight ends. However, even at a younger age, it doesn’t make up for the gap in receiving production.

The lists differed on which of the top cornerbacks cracked their lists, with Sauce Gardner getting the nod thanks to his consistent production across his first two seasons. He finished in the top 10 each of the last two seasons in yards allowed per coverage snap, yielding fewer than 700 receiving yards in nearly two years.

Amon-Ra St. Brown snuck onto the stats-based list because of how well he does his job, even though his job might be limited relative to others at the position. He is as money as it gets in big spots, ranking second in the NFL in both On-Target Catch Rate and third down completions over the last two years.

CeeDee Lamb is there because of his production in 2023, specifically ranking first in Receiving Total Points. The updates to Total Points will ding him because of his merely good catch rate on accurate balls, which is why he ended up below St. Brown, for example.

Other highlights from the scouts’ list

While the stats-based list was heavy on wide receivers, the scouts-based list was heavy on edge rushers, to the point that they felt the need to stretch for a couple of less-valuable positions.

In the interest of being less boring, the scouts included Roquan Smith as an off-ball linebacker choice. He’s a downhill player and an “enforcer,” per Matt, and while he doesn’t have the crazy athleticism that other potential candidates do, he closed the gap in that respect in 2023 in terms of being an excellent well-rounded player.

The scouts really only considered two cornerbacks for their list, and they went with Pat Surtain II over Gardner as the prototypical corner with versatility and consistency that very few corners have.

Ja’Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb were candidates for the back end of their list, with Chase getting the nod because “he’s more of a headache in more ways that lead to touchdowns for him and for other players on his offense.” This also contributed to the choice of Tyreek Hill as their top receiver.

Want to hear the rest of the debate and discussion? Check out Off The Charts wherever you get your podcasts.

June 13, 2024

Scouts vs. Stats: Top 10 NFL Quarterbacks

Photo: Ian Johnson and Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire

Over the spring/summer, the SIS R&D staff is convening on the Off the Charts Podcast to talk about their top ten players at a position. To do this, we pit two methodologies against each other:

The “Scouts,” which comes down to the film-based opinions of Matt Manocherian and Bryce Rossler, each of whom has a lot of experience breaking down film and scouting players (Matt having been a scout for NFL teams).
The “Stats,” which involves James Weaver and Alex Vigderman devising a ranking based on a suite of metrics, and having that ranking speak for itself.

Officially, Sports Info Solutions does not condone the dichotomy between scouting and statistical analysis. Each of them provides data in their own way and should inform our evaluation of a player.

When we originally produced the Football Rookie Handbook before transitioning that content to our NFL Draft site, we put the scouting reports and stats side-by-side with the idea that the reader would bounce back and forth between them and leverage both to come to a conclusion about a prospect.

This week, we flipped sides, with Alex and James providing their scouting insights while Bryce and Matt assumed the mantle of the nerds. With quarterbacks, it was easy for everyone to agree on the No. 1 guy, but there were some differences of opinion along the way.

Scouts’ Opinion	Statistical Analysis
1. Patrick Mahomes	1. Patrick Mahomes
2. Joe Burrow	2. Justin Herbert
3. Josh Allen	3. Josh Allen
4. Jalen Hurts	4. Aaron Rodgers
5. Justin Herbert	5. Jalen Hurts
6. Trevor Lawrence	6. Joe Burrow
7. Aaron Rodgers	7. Tua Tagovailoa
8. Lamar Jackson	8. Dak Prescott
9. Dak Prescott	9. Kirk Cousins
10. Russell Wilson	10. Derek Carr

The Stats List Methodology

The stats-based ranking includes a three-year recency-weighted average of a player’s per-snap performance in Total Points, with their most recent season having a weight of 3, the second-most recent having a weight of 2, and their third-most recent having a weight of 1.

Total Points arguably evaluates quarterback performance better than any other position, if only because there is an abundance of data points related to quarterback play that factor into it.

Matt and Bryce initially thought to blend it with a second weighted EPA model that incorporated variables like Expected On-Target +/- (xOnTgt+/-) and throw depth, but concerns about historical sample with respect to xOnTgt+/- ultimately led them to decide that keeping it simple was best.

It should also be noted that this methodology was not limited to Passing Total Points; Rushing Total Points is equally factored in, and that is reflected in the placement of players like Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, both of whom have been extremely productive on the ground.

What the Stats Showed

As Matt noted, it would have been difficult to tweak the model in a way to dethrone Patrick Mahomes.

“In terms of Z-scores, the difference between Patrick Mahomes and the second-ranked player, Justin Herbert, was bigger than the difference between Herbert and Derek Carr [the 10th-ranked player],” Matt said, “Mahomes was two standard deviations above average; the next-highest Z-score was Herbert, who was a little over one standard deviation above average.”

After a clear tier break, Herbert and Allen rounded out the top three, being the two of the remaining three players on the list to have ranked in the top 10 in Passing Total Points/play each of the last two years. (Herbert ranked 6th and 1st in 2022 and 2021, respectively; with Allen ranking 10th and 8th.)

Allen’s rushing also proved to be a windfall for him, with Bryce pointing out that, in 2022, the Bills generated 11 EPA on running plays, with Allen himself accounting for 33 rushing EPA.

Dak Prescott also ranked in the Top 10 in Passing Points/snap each of the past two years, but missed most of 2020 with an injury. Another player whose 2020 hurt them a bit in the stats ranking was Joe Burrow, whose ill-fated rookie season dampened his placement, despite performing well each of the past two years.

Following Burrow was Tua Tagovailoa, whose extremely efficient Year 3 with Mike McDaniel and Tyreek Hill was enough to propel him into the Top 10, despite not ranking in the Top 20 in Passing Total Points in either of his first two seasons in the league.

What the Scouts Thought

The scouts’ list likewise featured Patrick Mahomes at No. 1 and Josh Allen at No. 3, but Alex and James opted to place Burrow second rather than Herbert.

Their reasoning?

“Burrow just has that ‘It’ factor and has produced more results at this point than Herbert,” James said, “He went into Kansas City and beat Patrick Mahomes, which is something Herbert hasn’t done yet, and there’s something to be said for that.”

After that, there was a tier break with Jalen Hurts and the aforementioned Herbert placed at No. 4 and No. 5, respectively. The scouts expressed a bit of apprehension about Hurts simply because the Philadelphia offense was an extremely good fit for him last year, but still asserted that his leadership, his running ability, and his deep ball are reasons to be optimistic about him moving forward.

The scouts also included Trevor Lawrence (No. 6), Lamar Jackson (No. 8), and Russell Wilson (No. 10) in their list, despite all of them having bad statistical years at some point within the last three seasons. James was bullish on Lawrence’s prospects moving forward, citing his arm talent, his mobility, and his command of the offense in Year 2 as very positive signs. Jackson was given the benefit of the doubt with respect to his injuries and the supporting cast around him the last few seasons, and Wilson likewise got a pass for a dysfunctional first year in Denver, but the scouts did note that he’s likely past his prime.

Want to hear more discussion and debate? Check out this episode of the podcast:

July 21, 2023

Scouts vs Stats: Top 10 Interior Offensive Linemen

Over the spring/summer, the SIS R&D staff is convening on the Off the Charts Podcast to talk about their top ten players at a position. To do this, we pit two methodologies against each other:

The “Scouts,” which comes down to the film-based opinions of Matt Manocherian and Bryce Rossler, each of whom has a lot of experience breaking down film and scouting players (Matt having been a scout for NFL teams).
The “Stats,” which involves James Weaver and Alex Vigderman devising a ranking based on a suite of metrics, and having that ranking speak for itself.

Officially, Sports Info Solutions does not condone the dichotomy between scouting and statistical analysis. Each of them provides data in their own way and should inform our evaluation of a player.

So, without further ado, let’s head into the trenches and break down the ‘Best Interior Offensive Linemen in the NFL’ Top 10 lists.

Scouts’ Opinion	Statistical Analysis
1. Zack Martin	1. Jason Kelce
2. Jason Kelce	2. Kevin Zeitler
3. Creed Humphrey	3. Joel Bitonio
4. Quenton Nelson	4. Isaac Seumalo
5. Joel Bitonio	5. Zack Martin
6. Erik McCoy	6. Tyler Linderbaum
7. Joe Thuney	7. Joe Thuney
8. Brandon Scherff	8. Jon Runyan Jr.
9. Corey Linsley	9. Ben Powers
10. Frank Ragnow	10. Creed Humphrey

The Stats List Methodology

The stats-based ranking includes a three-year recency-weighted average of a player’s results across several different metrics, with the following weights applied to each:

- 25% Pass Blocking Total Points
- 20% Run Blocking Total Points
- 10% Pass Blown Block Rate
- 10% Run Blown Block Rate
- 10% Holding penalty avoidance

5% Positional versatility

Total Points does as good a job of evaluating offensive line play as anything in our arsenal, so we leveraged that most, leaning a bit more into pass blocking than run blocking. These are both season totals, so to give more credit to play-to-play effectiveness we added in blown block rates as well.

Total Points doesn’t account for penalties (yet), so we wanted to ascribe some value to avoiding holding penalties. Typically linemen aren’t being called for these more than a few times a year, but they’re absolute drive killers.

And lastly, we wanted to give players credit for playing multiple positions. Most of the top players aren’t moving around because they’re so good at their primary position, but being able to provide support at multiple alignments is absolutely a valuable aspect of a player.

What the Stats Showed

The top three players on the stats list have two things in common: they are strong in both the pass game and run game, but they’re better as run blockers. That’s a bit surprising because the passing game was weighted more strongly in the metric the stats group used.

Each of Eagles C Jason Kelce, Ravens G Kevin Zeitler, and Browns G Joel Bitonio ranked in the top 15 in both Pass Blocking and Run Blocking Total Points (out of over 200 candidates), but all of their Run Blocking Total Points ranks were the higher of the two. Kelce separated himself by ranking in the top 20 in blown block rate both passing and running, which no one else could claim.

One feature that contributed to Kelce’s Total Points ranking (and is somewhat relevant for other players on the list) is that it’s difficult to disentangle responsibility for quarterback designed runs, particularly sneaks. With how much the Eagles leaned into the sneak in 2022, there are a lot of high-value plays for which Kelce is getting some Total Points credit.

Almost every player outside the top few was a good bit more productive at one type of blocking than the other. Cowboys G Zack Martin (No. 5) and Chiefs G Joe Thuney (No. 7) were the notable exceptions, ranking in the top 25 in each, but down years by their standards in 2022 dropped them down the list.

First-year Ravens center Tyler Linderbaum cracked the list at No. 6, thanks to excellent production in the run game. He ranked second in the Run Blocking Total Points category, and 12th in run blown block rate. It’s worth noting that he does have the quarterback-run caveat that affects Kelce (and former teammate Isaac Seumalo, now of the Steelers), but he was a top pick who was expected to deliver “out of the box”, so to speak, so this isn’t surprising.

What the Scouts Thought

The scouts’ list was chalky at the very top, featuring two perennial All-Pros in Martin and Kelce. A slightly less chalky No. 3 ranking went to Chiefs C Creed Humphrey.

The Chiefs are the only team to have two players on the list for both groups, with Humphrey showing up higher on the scouts’ list but below Joe Thuney on the stats list. Humphrey came in and helped transform the Kansas City line in 2021, and has done so with a difficult role, being asked to reach block and sometimes take on interior pass rushers 1-on-1.

Arguably the biggest discrepancy between the lists came with Colts G Quenton Nelson coming in at No. 4.

Per Matt, “when [Nelson’s] at his best, he’s just an absolute mauler, somebody who can move defensive tackles off the ball in the duo game when you have double teams on the inside.” Nelson helped make the Indy offensive line what it was the last few years, but a down year in 2022 did give some pause as to where he’d rank.

No. 6 ranked Erik McCoy (Saints C) plays with control and power, with exceptional processing ability in the passing game. Bryce would easily rank him a top-three center, while Matt has concerns about his skill in the run game and his ability to stay on the field consistently. The stats back that up to some extent, as he ranked in the Top 10 in avoiding blown blocks in the passing game and in the 60s in the run game.

Matt and Bryce each advocated for Chargers C Corey Linsley and Lions C Frank Ragnow to make the list at Nos. 9 and 10, respectively. They actually ranked first and second in three-year pass blown block rate, but other factors took them out of the Top 10 on the stats-based list.

Matt contends that the Chargers did well to build “inside-out” by bringing in Linsley to play center a couple years ago, taking pressure off their guards. Bryce notes that Ragnow allows the Lions to “do a lot of wacky stuff” with the complexity in their run game, and his intelligence allows him to pick up pass rush games on the interior.

Want to hear more discussion and debate? Check out this episode of the podcast:

July 13, 2023

Scouts vs Stats: The NFL’s Top Linebackers & Safeties

Over the spring/summer, the SIS R&D staff is convening on the Off the Charts Podcast to talk about their top players at a position. To do this, we pit two methodologies against each other:

The “Scouts,” which comes down to the film-based opinions of Matt Manocherian and Bryce Rossler, each of whom has a lot of experience breaking down film and scouting players (Matt having done it for NFL teams).
The “Stats,” which involves James Weaver and Alex Vigderman devising a ranking based on a suite of metrics, and having that ranking speak for itself.

Officially, Sports Info Solutions does not condone the dichotomy between scouting and statistical analysis. Each of them provides data in their own way and should inform our evaluation of a player.

This week, we decided to do a 2-for-1 special and break down the Top 5 Off-Ball Linebackers and Top 5 Safeties in the NFL. So, without further ado, let’s get into the fun!

Off-Ball Linebackers

Scouts’ Opinion	Statistical Analysis
1. Fred Warner	1. Roquan Smith
2. Roquan Smith	2. Fred Warner
3. Matt Milano	3. Shaquille Leonard
4. Dre Greenlaw	4. Bobby Wagner
5. Demario Davis	5. Matt Milano

The Stats List Methodology

The stats-based ranking includes a three-year recency-weighted average of a player’s results across several different metrics, with the following weights applied to each:

20% Run Defense Total Points
15% Pass Rush Total Points
10% Pass Coverage Total Points
10% Broken+Missed Tackle Allowed %
10% Adjusted Tackle Depth
10% Pressure % Plus Minus
5% Hand On-Ball %
5% Deserved Catch %
5% Targets Per Cover Snap
5% Positive % Allowed Zone Scheme
5% Positive % Allowed Man Scheme

From an off-ball linebackers perspective, the stats team felt that weighting run defense and pass rush more than pass coverage was appropriate when considering Total Points. To indirectly increase the weighting, we included five supplemental metrics with 5% weights that analyzed different aspects of a linebacker’s coverage skills. A player like Matt Milano benefits from including these pass coverage metrics, as he ranked in the Top 10 in Hand On-Ball %, Deserved Catch %, and Positive Play % Allowed Zone Scheme while also ranking 3rd in Pass Coverage Total Points.

Rounding out the rest of the metrics, Adjusted Tackle Depth compares actual tackle depth to the expected tackle depth based on personnel, intended run gap, and the defender’s pre-snap alignment. Hand On-Ball % is the percentage of plays where a defender got their “hand on the ball.” This includes breaking up or intercepting a pass as well as forcing or recovering a fumble. Deserved Catch % is the percentage of targets as the primary defender that the receiver either caught or dropped the ball when the pass was catchable.

What the Stats Showed

Roquan Smith, the leader in the clubhouse on the stats side, finished in the Top 3 in all of the Total Points categories. He also accumulated these numbers without getting his hand on the ball much, ranking 97th.

Fred Warner came in 6th and 7th respectively in Run Defense and Pass Rush Total Points. What propelled him to 2nd was his supplemental metrics. He finished 3rd in Deserved Catch % (1st in Top 5), 7th in Pressure % +/- (2nd in Top 5), and 12th in Targets Per Cover Snap (2nd in Top 5).

Shaq Leonard finished 1st in both Run Defense and Pass Rush Total Points at this position, even with only playing in 3 games all of last year. Unlike Smith, he had his fingerprints all over the football when he played, ranking 2nd in Hand On-Ball %. His pass coverage metrics aren’t anything to write home about, ranking 17th in Pass Coverage Total Points and not any higher than 73rd in the supplemental pass coverage metrics.

What the Scouts Thought

The scouts had Fred Warner as their number 1 and Roquan Smith as their number 2. This was a clear cut decision for both Bryce and Matt, who said that he tried to make this a conversation with Bryce, but ultimately couldn’t argue for Smith ahead of Warner.

In regards to Warner’s pass coverage skills, Bryce is still in awe of the play in the NFC Divisional Game where Warner ran stride for stride with CeeDee Lamb,

“He was 40 yards downfield stride-for-stride with one of the best receivers in the NFL. Nobody else can do that,” Bryce said. “There are corners who can’t even do that.”

On Smith, Matt said

“At the center of your defense, this is someone who will make your entire defense faster.” Bryce added on, “He will hit you and will materialize out of nowhere on a perimeter run and make a tackle. His range is crazy.”

One player that the scouts had on their list that the stats team didn’t was Demario Davis. Matt highlighted his versatility, strength, and tackling ability all as positives. He stated that he isn’t great in pass coverage, but Bryce thought that he has some athletic juice and showed some quality skills. They both credit his pass rushing ability as well as his availability.

Safeties

Scouts’ Opinion	Statistical Analysis
1. Derwin James	1. Grant Delpit
2. Talanoa Hufanga	2. Budda Baker
3. Minkah Fitzpatrick	3. Justin Simmons
4. Budda Baker	4. Minkah Fitzpatrick
5. Antoine Winfield Jr.	5. Talanoa Hufanga

The Stats List Methodology

The stats-based ranking includes a three-year recency-weighted average of a player’s results across several different metrics, with the following weights applied to each:

25% Pass Coverage Total Points
15% Run Defense Total Points
10% Broken+Missed Tackle Allowed %
10% Adjusted Tackle Depth
10% Hand On-Ball %
10% Deserved Catch %
10% Pass Rush Total Points
5% YAC Per Completion
5% Targets Per Cover Snap

The categories here are very similar to off-ball linebackers, with the only differences being the removal of the man Positive %, Zone Positive %, and Pressure % over expectation, while adding in YAC Per Completion. The weights are changed with pass coverage taking over as the most important Total Points category. Run defense is still prominent, and pass rush drops to a 10% weight.

What the Stats Showed

Grant Delpit took the top spot for the stats team. He ranked 2nd in both Run Defense and Pass Rush Total Points as well as 1st in the Top 5 in Adjusted Tackle Depth. He was 17th in Pass Coverage Total Points

Budda Baker came in 2nd, even though he finished 1st in both Run Defense and Pass Rush Total Points. He finished 31st in Pass Coverage Total Points, but was the best in the Top 5 in Targets Per Cover Snap. He only faced 16 targets in 2022 with 526 cover snaps, meaning his impact is known when you try to throw at him.

Talanoa Hufanga cracked the Top 5 with only having meaningful playing time in one season. He ranked 12th in Pass Coverage Total Points, but was 20th and 23rd in Run Defense and Pass Rush, respectively. He ranked the best in the Top 5 in Deserved Catch % as well as YAC Per Completion.

What the Scouts Thought

Coming in No. 1 on the scouts list was Derwin James.

“This is a player who athletically is 1 of 1,” Matt said. “He’s faster than anyone else on this list, he hits like a linebacker, he can guard any tight end.” Bryce continued the praise, “He’s a problem-solving player. You can put him on Kelce. He’s a matchup eraser. He’s a prototype.”

In 3rd, the scouts had Minkah Fitzpatrick. Bryce discussed how good of an athlete he is and how you can ask him to do whatever you need him to do. Matt added that he is as versatile as they come, and that he can play slot, corner, strong, or free safety.

Cracking into the 5th spot was Antoine Winfield Jr. Matt said:

“He plays the game with a sixth sense about him. Just like the Honey Badger.” He continued, “You have to be careful throwing the ball when Antoine Winfield is in the vicinity.”

Want to hear more discussion and debate? Check out this episode of the podcast:

July 3, 2023

Scouts vs Stats: Debating The Top 10 NFL Tight Ends

Over the spring/summer, the SIS R&D staff is convening on the Off the Charts Podcast to talk about their Top 10 players at a position. To do this, we pit two methodologies against each other:

The “Scouts,” which comes down to the film-based opinions of Matt Manocherian and Bryce Rossler, each of whom has a lot of experience breaking down film and scouting players (Matt having done it for NFL teams).
The “Stats,” which involves James Weaver and Alex Vigderman devising a ranking based on a suite of metrics, and having that ranking speak for itself.

*This week, Matt called for some backup, so we brought in Jeff Dean from our Football Ops department

Officially, Sports Info Solutions does not condone the dichotomy between scouting and statistical analysis. Each of them provides data in their own way and should inform our evaluation of a player.

So, without further ado, let’s celebrate Tight End University week and break down the ‘Best Tight Ends in the NFL’ lists.

Scouts’ Opinion	Statistical Analysis
1. Travis Kelce	1. Travis Kelce
2. George Kittle	2. George Kittle
3. Mark Andrews	3. Mark Andrews
4. T.J. Hockenson	4. Kyle Pitts
5. Dallas Goedert	5. Dallas Goedert
6. Darren Waller	6. Dalton Schultz
7. Kyle Pitts	7. Darren Waller
8. Evan Engram	8. Cole Kmet
9. David Njoku	9. Hunter Henry
10. Dalton Schultz	10. Pat Friermuth

The Stats List Methodology

The stats-based ranking includes a three-year recency-weighted average of a player’s results across several different metrics, with the following weights applied to each:

35% Pass Game Total Points (Receiving and Pass Blocking)
15% Run Blocking Total Points
15% Targets Above Expectation
15% On-Target Catch %
10% YAC/Rec
5% ADoT
5% Broken Tackles + Missed Tackles/Rec

For tight ends, we decided to combine Receiving and Pass Block Total Points into an all-encompassing passing game metric. This was created so that a player who rarely pass blocks is not punished if he does well in the receiving game.

Run Blocking Total Points are also factored in to highlight the secondary responsibility of a good tight end. This metric is what shot Cole Kmet up the stats’ leaderboard, playing in an offense that is run heavy.

The rest of the metrics all measure how good a tight end is in the receiving game. Of note, Kyle Pitts was 1st in the ADoT metric and Travis Kelce was 6th in the Broken Tackles and Missed Tackles Per Rec.

What the Stats Showed

The Top 4 players in the pass game Total Points metric were all in the Top 4 of the stats’ list.

Mark Andrews finished ahead of George Kittle in the metric, but Kittle finished ahead of Andrews in Run Blocking Total Points, Broken and Missed Tackles Per Reception, Yards After Catch Per Reception, and On-Target Catch Percentage. Kyle Pitts was 4th in the pass game metric despite playing in only 10 games (and in a very low-volume pass offense) last season, emphasizing how productive he was in his rookie season. Travis Kelce, who was first in this metric, nearly doubled the value of second place Kittle, with 42 Total Points per season compared to 24. His production in Receiving Total Points over the last 3 years would make him a Top 5 receiver overall.

The Top 4 in the stats’ list also all came in the Top 10 in Targets Above Expectation. This metric measures how many targets the player themselves generates based on contextual factors like alignment, coverage, and route type. Other than No. 10-ranked Pat Friermuth (14th), no other player in the Top 10 on the stats’ list came in the Top 15. Generating one’s own targets was a separator for the Top 4 on the list.

Yards After Catch Per Reception numbers for Kelce (2nd in Top 10) and Kittle (3rd in Top 10) separated themselves from Andrews (Last in Top 10). Dallas Goedert, who placed fifth overall, came out the best in this metric among the top ten players, ranking 14th among tight ends with 6.7 YAC/R. Goedert was also solid in all other metrics, coming in 7th overall in pass game Total Points, 8th in Run Blocking Total Points, and 25th (3rd in the Top 10) in Broken and Missed Tackles Per Reception.

What the Scouts Thought

This one lacks a little suspense. Both lists had Travis Kelce as the best tight end in the league. From a scouts’ perspective, Bryce Rossler states, “He is one of the best tight ends of all-time. Probably only Gronk above him. His route-running is amazing, his yards after the catch ability is amazing, and he’s a pretty good athlete.”

Both groups also had the same players at No. 2 and No. 3. The scouts found T.J. Hockenson to be 4th on their list while the stats guys did not have them in their Top 10.

As to why, Jeff said, “His ability to produce no matter who his quarterback is, no matter what kind of offense he’s in, is something you don’t find in a lot of tight ends.” He goes on to say, “Not to mention his huge wingspan, being able to post up linebackers over the middle, and challenge cornerbacks on out routes is something that is really hard to find in the position.”

One of the differences on the scouts’ list was that they included Jaguars tight end Evan Engram at number 8. “He might not have the gaudy numbers you look for, but when you watch him play, he’s a guy the defense has to account for. He’s a legitimate receiving threat,” Jeff said. “I would not be surprised if he has a bigger year than he did last year in this upcoming season.”

Want to hear more discussion and debate? Check out this episode of the podcast:

June 22, 2023

Scouts vs Stats: Top 10 NFL Running Backs

Over the spring/summer, the SIS R&D staff is convening on the Off the Charts Podcast to talk about their top ten players at a position. To do this, we pit two methodologies against each other:

The “Scouts,” which comes down to the film-based opinions of Matt Manocherian* and Bryce Rossler, each of whom has a lot of experience breaking down film and scouting players (Matt having done it for NFL teams).
The “Stats,” which involves James Weaver and Alex Vigderman devising a ranking based on a suite of metrics, and having that ranking speak for itself.

*This week, Matt called for some backup, so we brought in Jeff Dean from our Football Ops department

Officially, Sports Info Solutions does not condone the dichotomy between scouting and statistical analysis. Each of them provides data in their own way and should inform our evaluation of a player.

So, without further ado, let’s get to these ‘Best Running Backs in the NFL’ lists and then do a deep dive on why each group ranked as it did.

Scouts’ Opinion	Statistical Analysis
1. Josh Jacobs	1. Nick Chubb
2. Christian McCaffrey	2. Derrick Henry
3. Nick Chubb	3. Christian McCaffrey
4. Derrick Henry	4. Tony Pollard
5. Jonathan Taylor	5. Josh Jacobs
6. Dalvin Cook	6. Rhamondre Stevenson
7. Rhamondre Stevenson	7. Javonte Williams
8. Aaron Jones	8. A.J. Dillon
9. Kenneth Walker III	9. Aaron Jones
10. Saquon Barkley	10. Cordarrelle Patterson

The Stats List Methodology

The stats-based ranking includes a two-year recency-weighted average of a player’s results across several different metrics, with the following weights applied to each:

35% Rushing Total Points
15% Receiving Total Points
5% Pass Blocking Total Points
10% Broken + Missed Tackle Rate
10% Heavy Box %
10% Positive% (when hit at the line)
5% Average Depth of Target
5% Positive% Balance – Gap/Zone
5% Positive% Balance – Inside/Outside

Once again, the stats team leans heavily into Total Points. This catch-all metric incorporates many of the elements that we would care about when evaluating a player’s performance. In this case, receiving impact is less relevant than rushing, but has a sizable impact for certain players in the Top 10. A key element of passing game impact for running backs is the ability to threaten the defense with more than just dump-offs, which is captured in Average Depth of Target.

Multiple stats measure the back’s ability to make people miss and to get past initial contact at the line. This is particularly relevant when the box is stacked, which is perhaps as relevant a contextual factor as any when it comes to rushing productivity.

The Positive% Balance stats take Positive%—the rate of successful plays from an EPA standpoint—and compare their performance across different splits. The players get rated on whichever is the lower of the two (gap vs. zone, or inside vs. outside). This basically gives credit to players who are good regardless of what they’re asked to do, as opposed to being a scheme specialist.

What the Stats Showed

4 out of the top 5 players on the stats list came in the Top 5 in Rushing Total Points. The outlier was Christian McCaffrey, who was the most productive receiver in the sample and ranked in the Top 3 on each list.

The player who stands out at the top of the stats-based list is Tony Pollard, who has been excellent in limited usage and exemplifies the challenge of evaluating running backs in this era. The Stats list ranked Pollard No. 4. The Scouts list did not put him in their Top 10. Often running backs are being given a limited scope of opportunities that helps them be successful, and it’s difficult to identify statistically if a player is only excelling because he’s being kept away from suboptimal run contexts.

Josh Jacobs was No. 5 on the Stats list and No. 1 on the Scouts list. He probably has the most polarizing statistical profile. He ranked in the Top 10 in Rushing Total Points, Broken + Missed Tackle Rate, and both Positive% Balance metrics. He ranked in the bottom half of the rest of the metrics.

The bottom half of the stats-based list was less solid due to questions about role, age, and health. No. 7 Javonte Williams was outstanding in 2021 and was set to have a good follow-up until he suffered a devastating knee injury. We elected to give him credit for what he did in a season-plus, acknowledging that it’s unlikely he maintains that performance going forward.

In that same vein, Cordarrelle Patterson makes the list at No. 10 in part because of excellent receiving production in 2021. His age and the direction of the roster make it extremely unlikely that he could make this list next year, but he was still acceptably productive as a rusher while seeing a ton of heavy boxes in an offense that struggled in the passing game.

Both Packers backs make the stats list, in an order that most people would probably disagree with. No. 8 A.J. Dillon had a much more successful 2021 than 2022 and failed to unseat No. 9 Aaron Jones in the way that some might have expected, producing a lot fewer eluded tackles than expected given his frame. But Jones has run into a lot of light boxes and didn’t differentiate himself in terms of passing game impact relative to Dillon.

What the Scouts Thought

The scouts were wowed by what their No. 1, Josh Jacobs, has put on film, not just in his 2022 campaign. Per Bryce, the things that stand out are his elusiveness and the contact balance. He’s extremely hard to tackle and runs with great leverage and tempo, and also brings speed in the open field.

Their second pick went to Christian McCaffrey, who stands out compared to the other top choices because of, as Jeff put it, his “gravity as a receiver,” with defenses having to account for him in multiple ways.

The scouts admit that their top three choices were pretty interchangeable, and that mostly aligns with how the stats list worked out.

No. 4 Derrick Henry falls just short of that group, in part because of his age (which proved to be a distinguishing factor between the lists, because the stats didn’t build in any sort of projection going forward). Bryce jokingly notes that his reduced broken and missed tackle rate compared to his reputation is partly because defenders just don’t want to get in his way once he builds up momentum.

The most notable discrepancies between the lists come in the middle of the scouts’ rundown, with Jonathan Taylor and Dalvin Cook.

Taylor came out 12th on the stats list because of a very unproductive 2022, but he cracks the scouts’ list at No. 5 as maybe one of the three best pure rushers in the league. He combines speed, vision, and elusiveness that few runners do, as shown in what he put on film in 2021. Jeff noted that the 2022 film was not great, but he gets a fresh start this year to show which of those two seasons to believe.

No. 6 Cook has been the topic of a lot of discussion with his release from the Vikings. According to Jeff (who just wrote an article about the flaws in Minnesota’s offseason plan), he brings breakaway ability that NFL teams value a lot, and he could be a bigger asset in the passing game for a team that uses him in more dynamic ways. He does have ball security issues at times and doesn’t always express that breakaway ability, but the tools are there to be a lead back.

The last name on the scouts’ list—Saquon Barkley—was debated on their end, which aligns with the stats in the sense that he does not have the statistical profile that his talent suggests.

Per Jeff, “The talent is obvious…when he’s on the field, he’s a difference maker. He’s a guy that provides value as both a receiver and a rusher, and when he’s in your backfield, you consider running back a ‘plus’ position.” Bryce pointed out that he’s gotten more disciplined as a runner—and the numbers back that up—which was a point of concern when he was coming out of college.

Overall, the lists aligned on six out of 10 players, with a couple players from each list being “off the board” for the other. However, four of the top five players on each list matched up, which says a lot for what those players have been able to put on film and the stat sheet the last couple years.

Want to hear more discussion and debate? Check out this episode of the podcast:

June 15, 2023

Scouts vs Stats: Top 10 NFL Cornerbacks

Over the spring/summer, the SIS R&D staff is convening on the Off the Charts Podcast to talk about their top ten players at a position. To do this, we pit two methodologies against each other:

The “Scouts,” which comes down to the film-based opinions of Matt Manocherian and Bryce Rossler, each of whom has a lot of experience breaking down film and scouting players (Matt having done it for NFL teams).
The “Stats,” which involves James Weaver and Alex Vigderman devising a ranking based on a suite of metrics, and having that ranking speak for itself.

Officially, Sports Info Solutions does not condone the dichotomy between scouting and statistical analysis. Each of them provides data in their own way and should inform our evaluation of a player.

So, without further ado, let’s get to these ‘Best Cornerbacks in the NFL’ lists and then do a deep dive on why each group ranked as it did.

Scouts’ Opinion	Statistical Analysis
1. Pat Surtain II	1. Sauce Gardner
2. Jalen Ramsey	2. Tyson Campbell
3. Jaire Alexander	3. Jalen Ramsey
4. Sauce Gardner	4. Pat Surtain II
5. Darius Slay	5. Tariq Woolen
6. Tre’Davious White	6. Jaire Alexander
7. Marshon Lattimore	7. J.C. Jackson
8. Xavien Howard	8. Michael Jackson Sr.
9. Denzel Ward	9. L’Jarius Sneed
10. A.J. Terrell	10. Michael Davis

The Stats List Methodology

The stats-based ranking includes a three-year recency-weighted average of a player’s results across several different metrics, with the following weights applied to each:

30% Pass Coverage Total Points
5% Pass Rush Total Points
10% Run Defense Total Points
10% Positive % Allowed vs. Man Coverage
10% Hand-On-Ball %
10% Deserved Catch Allowed %
5% Press Coverage %
5% Slot Corner %
5% Broken+Missed Tackle Allowed %
5% Penalties
5% YAC Per Completion Allowed

Run defense and pass rush are also included in order to favor those with specific skill sets that add to a team’s value. Obviously these two are not the usual attributes first thought of when evaluating cornerback play, but a sneaky corner blitzer like L’Jarius Sneed or an ultra-aggressive run defender in Jalen Ramsey add value to a team with these skills.

The stats team also wanted to give credit to corners who line up in press coverage more often as well as those who line up on the outside rather than in the slot (a smaller slot corner % value). A player who lines up in press usually has the skill and trust from the coaching staff to go 1-on-1 with their counterpart on the offensive side of the ball with minimal help. With the better receivers usually lining up on the outside, we credited those corners who line up on the outside more often than in the slot.

The other 10% weights—positive % allowed vs. man coverage, hand on-ball %, and deserved catch %—all break down an individual player’s performance when the spotlight is on them. Positive % vs. man is the percentage of positive plays (EPA > 0) a corner allows when they are in man coverage. Hand on-ball % is the percentage of time a player has an interception, a pass deflected, a pass tipped, a forced fumble, or a fumble recovery. Deserved catch % is the percentage of time a corner allows a catch or a drop on a catchable throw, so a lower number is better here.

The rest of the weights include broken and missed tackles allowed, yards after catch per completion allowed, and penalties. Gauging whether or not a player is disciplined and a sure tackler are standard staples on defense.

What the Stats Showed

4 out of the top 5 players on the stats list came in the Top 5 in Pass Coverage Total Points. Tariq Woolen was the only one who didn’t, but he was the best in the Top 10 in press coverage % and was 1st among all corners in deserved catch %. Both he and Sauce Gardner benefit from having massive rookie seasons, as they have less baggage clinging to them in what they have allowed.

Tyson Campbell ranked No.2 on the stats list while he didn’t make the Scouts Top 10 list. His stats across the board ranked highly among Top 10 players such as 4th overall in Pass Coverage Total Points and 7th overall in Run Defense Total Points. He also ranked the best among Top 10 players in slot corner %, meaning his production came on the outside.

J.C. Jackson was No. 7 on the stats list solely because of his 2020 and 2021 seasons with the Patriots. He has the same rank in Pass Coverage Total Points, has the 2nd-best press coverage rank among those in the Top 10, and is 3rd overall in hand-on-ball %. However, allowing 16 yards per target in 2022 is less than ideal. He will have to get back to his previous standards this year after being benched and suffering an injury last season.

What the Scouts Thought

Pat Surtain II was their best corner in the league. Surtain’s NFL pedigree came from his father, Pat Surtain Sr., and the younger Surtain has surpassed his father by being more physical and having the ability to punish a receiver throughout the game. Those coupled with his size, strength, and speed make him No. 1 on their list.

A big difference between the stats and scouts list was the ranking of Darius Slay. The scouts had him No. 5, but the stats list had him No. 63! “When he is on, he is dangerous,” Matt said of Slay. Matt adds, “I think he earns every bit of the money he earns in Philadelphia.” The stats had him a lot lower, as he ranked 73rd in Pass Coverage Total Points.

Further along, Bryce discussed why Tre’Davious White ranked No. 6: “Maybe feisty is the word, but he is definitely one of the more physical guys even with his size.”

Matt also liked the play of Xavien Howard as the 8th best cornerback on the scouts list. He still believes that he is a top corner despite fighting through an injury.

“This is somebody who, going into last year, would have been at the very top of this list for me,” Matt said. “I think that he is an interesting case study for the volatility of corners,”

Want to hear more discussion and debate? Check out this episode of the podcast:

June 9, 2023

Scouts vs Stats: Debating The Top 10 NFL Offensive Tackles

Over the spring/summer, the SIS R&D staff is convening on the Off the Charts Podcast to talk about their top ten players at a position. To do this, we pit two methodologies against each other:

The “Scouts”, which comes down to the film-based opinions of Matt Manocherian and Bryce Rossler, each of whom has a lot of experience breaking down film and scouting players (Matt having done it for NFL teams).
The “Stats”, which involves James Weaver and Alex Vigderman devising a ranking based on a suite of metrics, and having that ranking speak for itself.

Officially, Sports Info Solutions does not condone the dichotomy between scouting and statistical analysis. Each of them provides data in their own way and should inform our evaluation of a player.

So, without further ado, let’s get to these ‘Best Offensive Tackle in the NFL’ lists and then do a deep dive on why each group ranked as it did.

Scouts’ Opinion	Statistical Analysis
1. Trent Williams	1. Tristan Wirfs
2. Tristan Wirfs	2. Kelvin Beachum
3. Lane Johnson	3. Orlando Brown Jr.
4. Laremy Tunsil	4. Taylor Moton
5. Andrew Thomas	5. Rob Havenstein
6. Rashawn Slater	6. Lane Johnson
7. Penei Sewell	7. Ryan Ramczyk
8. Ryan Ramczyk	8. Brian O’Neill
9. Taylor Moton	9. Jake Matthews
10. Terron Armstead	10. Braden Smith

We’ll explain the methodology that generated the Stats list in a little bit, but the biggest discrepancies between the lists came as a result of the ‘Stats’ crew leaning so hard on volume numbers. Only three players from the stats-based list accrued fewer than 2,700 snaps over the last three years (Lane Johnson, Ramczyk, and Braden Smith). By contrast, none of the four players who the scouts ranked fourth through seventh cracked that threshold.

If we had to re-do this exercise, some percentage of the Total Points weighting that the Stats crew generated would have been repurposed towards per-snap performance in the same metric, to give excellence a bit more credit.

What the Scouts Thought

One of the things that Matt and Bryce realized while doing this exercise is that there aren’t as many outstanding tackles in the league as there sometimes are. There are a few potential Hall-of-Fame players at the top of the list, but the rest of the top ten felt a bit less impressive than they’d typically expect.

“It’s been harder to find tackles who can play right now coming out of college the way the game has developed right now,” Matt said.

There are more excellent right tackles right now than left tackles, at least subjectively. Trent Williams tops the list as one of those elite LTs because, as Bryce argues, “he’s a freak, he’s an absolute monster, probably the most athletic guy in space even in his old age.”

There was some dissent in the ranks, with Matt arguing in favor of Tristan Wirfs, who he feels stands out more in terms of his performance relative to his peers than Williams at this point, though the greater dissent was with the Stats folks not ranking Williams at all.

The scout rankings are effectively in three tiers, with the top three players in that HoF range, Laremy Tunsil and Andrew Thomas occupying the next tier (at different points in their careers, of course), and Rashawn Slater and Penei Sewell in the might-be-top-five-in-a-year tier.

“I think Sewell took a huge leap this year for the Lions,” Bryce said. “The thing that impresses me the most about Slater is how much control he plays with. He’s very balanced. Rep-in and rep-out he always seems to be in control of the rep.”

None of those players made the Top 10 on the Stats list, because of either injury history or rookie growing pains. Thomas in particular has improved a lot since his rookie year, when he looked like he was overmatched but now has established himself as one of the most powerful tackles in the NFL. “The turnaround has been incredible,” Bryce said. “The amount of power he plays with is probably Top 3 in the league.”

Tunsil not making the Stats list due to one season with significant missed time was a stunner to the Scouts. “A blue chipper for sure,” Bryce said. “Still relatively young. Can pass-block with the best of them. Really good run blocker (though the Run Blocking Total Points numbers didn’t agree). Long, athletic, technical. He’s gotta be Top 10.”

Ryan Ramczyk was similarly rated on both lists, and while he doesn’t stand out as much as the top handful of tackles, he has shown well against top pass rushers like Brian Burns and Maxx Crosby.

Terron Armstead was a tough rank because of how much time he’s missed, but if we didn’t have to worry about age and injury risk, Armstead could have easily made it higher on the list.

The Stats List Methodology

The stats-based ranking includes a three-year recency-weighted average of a player’s results across several different metrics, with the following weights applied to each:

45% Pass Blocking Total Points

40% Run Blocking Total Points
10% Holding penalty avoidance

5% Positional versatility

Total Points does as good a job of evaluating offensive line play as anything in our arsenal, so we leveraged that heavily, leaning a bit more into pass blocking than run blocking. These are both season totals, so the fact that teams pass more than they run already builds in some preference for the passing game, but we elected to lean a bit more into that.

And lastly, we wanted to give players credit for playing multiple positions. Most of the top players aren’t moving around because they’re so good at a valuable spot, but being able to provide support at multiple alignments is absolutely a valuable aspect of a player.

What the Stats Showed

The volume accumulators who surprised the scouts were Kelvin Beachum, Orlando Brown Jr., Rob Havenstein, Brian O’Neill, and Jake Matthews. Each of them ranked in the top ten in at least one of the pass blocking or run blocking Total Points categories, with the exception of Matthews, who was no worse than 13th in either.

“Matthews to me is the epitome of the old scouting trope,” Bryce said, explaining why he didn’t make the scouts list. “‘This guy’s gonna be a 10-year NFL vet.’ He’s a solid starter. I could make a case for him in the Top 10, maybe. But I’m not super-inspired.”

Getting back to our point about volume: We don’t want to focus entirely on play-to-play success, because being on the field is crucial, but a little more balance would have, if nothing else, kept this list more in line with the breakdown of weights for the previous exercises.

There were also some cases—more so than in previous position discussions—where that third year in the three-year weighted average really skewed things. Brown Jr. had a very productive final year in Baltimore, particularly as a run blocker (he ranked No. 1 in Run Blocking Total Points) which buoyed him to the top rank in that dimension. The Stats guys pointed out that Brown Jr. ranked 8th and 11th in Total Points on a per-play basis over the last two seasons, and thus should have been considered more highly by the Scouts.

There was a similar story for Havenstein, whose productivity has declined since the Rams’ Super Bowl year.

The holding penalty category moved the needle for a couple players, including Sewell, who just missed the stats-based list in part because he drew the ire of referees too often. O’Neill, on the other hand, has been called for just three holding penalties in three years.

One stat that was discussed often on the podcast was Run Behind %, which measures how often a team designs runs behind a lineman. Moton’s run game production (ranked 24th) lags in a way that doesn’t match the eye test, in part because in 2022 the Panthers ran behind him a little more than half as often as they had the year prior.

Want to hear more discussion and debate? Check out this episode of the podcast:

June 5, 2023

Scouts vs Stats: Debating The Top 10 NFL Receivers

For the second straight week, the SIS R&D staff convened on the Off the Charts podcast to talk about their Top 10 NFL players at a position (LISTEN HERE). But to do this, we pit two methodologies against each other:

The “Scouts”, which comes down to the film-based opinions of Matt Manocherian and Bryce Rossler, each of whom has a lot of experience breaking down film and scouting players (Matt having done it for NFL teams).

The “Stats”, which involves James Weaver and Alex Vigderman devising a ranking based on a suite of metrics, and having that ranking speak for itself.

Officially, Sports Info Solutions does not condone the dichotomy between scouting and statistical analysis. Each of them provides data in their own way and should inform our evaluation of a player.

So, without further ado, let’s get to these ‘Best Receivers in the NFL’ lists and then do a deep dive on why each group ranked as it did.

Scouts’ Opinion	Statistical Analysis
1. Tyreek Hill	1. Cooper Kupp
2. Justin Jefferson	2. Davante Adams
3. Ja’Marr Chase	3. Stefon Diggs
4. A.J.Brown	4. Justin Jefferson
5. Davante Adams	5. A.J. Brown
6. Stefon Diggs	6. Amon-Ra St. Brown
7. CeeDee Lamb	7. Deebo Samuel
8. Jaylen Waddle	8. Tyreek Hill
9. Cooper Kupp	9. CeeDee Lamb
10. Deebo Samuel	10. DeVonta Smith

The Stats List Methodology

The stats-based ranking includes a three-year recency-weighted average of a player’s results across several different metrics, with the following weights applied to each:

50% Receiving Total Points

10% Run Blocking Total Points
10% Positive% vs. Man Coverage
10% Target Rate Above Expectation
10% On-Target Catch Rate
10% Broken+Missed Tackles per Reception

We unsurprisingly lean heavily into Receiving Total Points, because it’s a catch-all metric that incorporates many of the other elements we might care about, and is a volume stat, meaning full-time players will be given credit for that.

Run blocking is included because it is a part of every receiver’s job, but some players (like Cooper Kupp) are more crucial to their team’s overall success because of it. More a feather-in-the-cap type inclusion.

We wanted to have some measure of success against man coverage, so we included Positive%, which is just asking how often their targets result in positive EPA. This technically includes quarterback play, which isn’t optimal, but the man coverage split is important enough that we kept it in.

Target Rate Above Expectation takes into account a variety of factors to estimate how likely a player is to earn a target on a play, so it’s not just a matter of getting a lot of screens. You need to get open consistently beyond having a lot of schemed looks to have good results.

And lastly we included measures of hands and elusiveness, and specifically metrics that we feel are the best evaluators of these specific skills in isolation.

What The Scouts Thought

Matt and Bryce leaned heavily into the value of being disruptive from a game-planning perspective. The best players should be the answer to “Who scares me the most?”

Matt would have put Ja’Marr Chase second on the list, specifically noting that he forces the opponent to play 10-on-11 when he’s on the field. (We’ll talk about Chase more in a bit). While at times his production has looked similar to teammate Tee Higgins, that fear factor contributes to Chase’s rank here.

Matt and Bryce debated the Davante Adams/A.J. Brown rankings as much as any of them, with age starting to contribute a bit to the evaluation of Adams. Brown’s beat-you-by-speed-or-by-physicality skill set won out, but Adams could have won out because of his surprising strength and acrobatics at the catch point.

Despite an unbelievable 2021 season, Cooper Kupp’s injury-hampered 2022 dropped him on the scouting rankings. This is admittedly a bit of a hedge against his injury risk and age (relative to some of the others on the list), but in half a season in 2022 he still racked up 75 catches, so he’s not slowing down just yet.

What The Stats Showed

The stats-based list has 8 out of 10 of the same names, but there are still some pretty stark differences. Kupp at No. 1 is a little surprising because he missed half of his most recent season, but record-setting production in the prior year and a half more than moves the needle.

Kupp ranked in the top five in 3-year Receiving Total Points, Run Blocking Total Points, and Target Rate Above Expectation.

The most alarming discrepancy between the scouts and stats is Chase, who ranked 3rd by the scouts and 28th by the stats.

Part of this is Chase missing a handful of games in 2022, which sinks him to 24th in the Receiving Total Points weighted average. But he also didn’t rank higher than 20th in any of the metrics. Beyond that, his 84% On-Target Catch% puts him in the bottom quarter of qualifying receivers.

The Dolphins receivers also stand out in contrast. Tyreek Hill’s mind-blowing skill set—and how that affects game-planning—is tough to account for statistically, but so is his effect on other players on the offense. His value in stretching the field and drawing attention is probably enough to make the difference between his ranks on these lists.

Jaylen Waddle ranks 61st on the stats-based list, largely because of problematic usage in his rookie year and some hands issues.

In 2021 his average target depth ranked 11th-lowest of 89 receivers with at least 50 targets, and he combined that with a pretty high number of drops for that usage. In 2022 that was a different story.

A year from now it won’t be surprising to find him surging up these rankings.

May 26, 2023